Small Wars Journal

Russia-Turkey Deal May Delay, But Not Prevent, a Battle for Syria’s Idlib Province

Wed, 09/19/2018 - 12:36am

Russia-Turkey Deal May Delay, But Not Prevent, a Battle for Syria’s Idlib Province by Liz Sly and Louisa Loveluck – Washington Post

Syrians disagreed Tuesday about what a new Russia-Turkey deal means, casting into doubt whether it will ultimately prevent a potentially devastating war for control of the Syrian province of Idlib.

The deal announced Monday has been broadly welcomed as an opportunity to forestall the full-scale Syrian government offensive against Idlib that has been widely feared, averting the humanitarian catastrophe it was expected to trigger.

Under the broad terms of the agreement outlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and Turkey will jointly oversee the creation of a nine-mile demilitarized zone between rebel and Syrian government lines intended to keep the two sides apart.

But it remains unclear whether the deal will prevent an eventual conflict in the area, said Lina Khatib of London’s Chatham House think tank.

“We definitely should not think that the Idlib deal is the ultimate deal. What we are seeing is only a measure for the time being. It is not the endgame for Idlib,” she said. “At best, this deal postpones a potential confrontation in Idlib rather than completely eliminates the possibility of an offensive.”…

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