Losing Afghanistan?

Is NATO losing the Afghan war, as the Soviet Union did in the 1980s and the British Empire in the 19th century? Notwithstanding NATO and US denials, the answer is affirmative. And abundant evidence is provided in a detailed 113-page report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The author is Anthony Cordesman, CSIS' senior strategic thinker.

The situation in Afghanistan, Cordesman writes, has been deteriorating for the past five years "and is now reaching a crisis level." Both Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen have acknowledged that it is now an Afghan-Pakistani conflict "and one lacking in both military and civilian resources. It is also becoming increasingly more deadly for civilians, aid workers, and US and NATO forces."

Titled "Losing the Afghan-Pakistan War? The Rising Threat," the CSIS report documents "changes in the character of the threat and the rise in Afghan and allied casualties." UN and declassified US intelligence maps detail the steady expansion of threat influence and the regions that are unsafe for aid workers. Other data show how Afghan drug growing has steadily moved south "and become a major source of financing for the Taliban."

The CSIS report shows that the next US president will "face a critical challenge with a war that is probably being lost at the political and strategic level, and is not being won at the tactical level." It is clear why the senior US and NATO commanders in Afghanistan are calling for substantially more troops than Bush decided to deploy this September, and the problems in this briefing are compounded by critical problems in Afghan and Pakistani governance and economic development.

More at United Press International.

Losing The Afghan-Pakistan War? The Rising Threat - Anthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies

The situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating for nearly half a decade, and is now reaching a crisis level. Secretary Gates and Admiral Mullen have acknowledged that it is now an Afghan-Pakistan conflict, and one lacking in both military and civilian resources. It is also a war that is becoming increasingly more deadly for civilians, aid workers, and US and NATO forces.

Resurgent Taliban, Haqqani, and HIG forces have turned much of Afghanistan into "no-go" zones for aid workers and civilians. These forces, benefiting from a rise in poppy cultivation and safe havens in the FATA regions of Pakistan, are steadily expanding their capabilities and geographic reach.

This report includes a graphic and map analysis of the fighting in Pakistan, changes in the character of the threat, and the rise in Afghan and allied casualties. UN and declassified US intelligence maps detail the steady expansion of threat influence and the regions that are unsafe for aid workers. Other data show how Afghan drug growing has steadily moved south and become a major source of financing for the Taliban.

It shows that the next President will face a critical challenge in dealing with a war that is probably being lost at the political and strategic level, and is not being won at the tactical level. It is clear why the senior US and NATO/ISAF commanders in Afghanistan are calling for substantially more troops than President Bush decided to deploy this September, and the problems in this briefing are compounded by critical problems in Afghan and Pakistani governance and economic development.

More at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.