Small Wars Journal

David Kilcullen: Rise of Terror, Displacement is the "New Norm"

Thu, 02/18/2016 - 12:42pm

David Kilcullen: Rise of Terror, Displacement is the ‘New Norm’ by Rachel Baxendale, The Australian

The world must adjust to the growth of Islamic State and the displacement of millions of people from the Middle East as the “new normal”, according to former White House counter-terror chief David Kilcullen.

Warning that he believes there is a 100 per cent chance of another terror attack here, Dr Kilcullen predicted that this year would see continued heavy violence in Syria; a major Islamic State and Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan; a spike in violence in Libya; continued unrest in Yemen, Somalia, northern Nigeria and Kenya; and a significant expansion of Islamic State in Southeast Asia.

Speaking in Melbourne yesterday at a Deakin Univer­sity conference on terrorism, he said that over the next months Syria — in particular its second city, Aleppo — would experience a large-scale humanitarian disaster “that dwarfs everything we’ve already seen’’. He predicted that the violence would see hordes of asylum-seekers travel to Europe, on at least the scale they did last year…

Read on.


Outlaw 09

Fri, 02/19/2016 - 2:21pm

This should have been what the Kilcullen article addressed..not something that is as evident as the Atlantic Ocean........

The three core Putin geo political goals of his non linear war against the West are slowly being fulfilled and the West does not see it coming.......

1. damaging and discrediting of NATO

Putin has now has succeeded as NATO fully supported Paris in bombing terrorists after the Paris attack BUT tells another NATO country equally threatened and attacked by terrorists this response......because of the Russia/Iranian loudly threatened war if Turkey crosses over.

Breaking: (expected) #NATO will NOT help #Turkey if war breaks out with #Russia -

NATO evidently does not realize the central value of a NATO member sitting on the Black Sea entrance and controlling a vital portion of the Med. and fielding the largest military force inside the currently very weak military wise NATO....right now Ukraine has more tanks and IFVs than five of the larger NATO members.....

What NATO does not seem to fully understand is that the key to the refugee flow sits in Turkey who has 2.5M Syrian refugees right now with another 150K sitting on their border and could if they wanted to flood the EU just as Greece has done.

What NATO does not realize is that by turning their back on Turkey it will nudge it far closer to the KSA and the two regional powers wll often in the future clash with NATO planning if it does not fit their geo political views for their region....AND Turkey has contributed far more troops to NATO missions over the last 20 years than 15 of the other NATO members combined.....Turkey can now pass on NATO missions if asked....

NOTE: Turkey will be rethinking their position inside NATO after this rejection and the US should not be surprised nor the rest of NATO.

2. damaging and discrediting EU

Putin has succeeded as the EU has absolutely just about unraveled due to the massive flow of Syrian refugees.....and more are coming after the deliberate Russia attack on civilians further driving more into refugee status.....

Refugees being manipulated by cynical #Russian strategy, says #Lithuania ForMin

NOTE: Turkey has largely supported the 2.5M Syrian refugees on their own dime and the EU had promised 3B Euros to assist BUT has now not even provided a single Euro. Merkel realizes this and is urgently trying to weave Turkey into a coherent EU answer to the refugees...and the EU is dragging it's feet as usual.

NOTE: Turkey has defined for EU/NATO/US a clear and concise statement concerning what they view as a serious threat to their national security and neither US/NATO/EU has even responded to this declaration......even now NATO is shying away

3. disconnecting the US from NATO and EU..

He is half way there with this NATO decision as the decision was largely driven by the well as the US adamantly holding onto their support of a grouping that are in the eyes of a NATO member...terrorists.....

Anyone want to argue Putin is not "winning" his non linear war against the West.....?????

As I have a number of other US actions that indicate they have been disconnected from the ME and have largely allowed the EU to unravel over the refugee crisis as the refugee crisis is in reality easy to stop ...kick Assad out and stop the bombing...but the US has largely accepted the Russian positions and are following Putin's led now so that is out of the question.......


Fri, 02/19/2016 - 10:26am

It's always nice to see the 'Nostradamus of COIN' weighing in on the ongoing situation in a region that his very own doctrine failed to curtail, what it did not curtail was the sizeable paychecks that Dr. Kilcullen has received for his theories. It does not take a genius, an academic, or a foot Soldier to forecast the pending crisis that is unfurling as a direct result of failed practices and a lack of staying power.

Outlaw 09

Fri, 02/19/2016 - 3:05am

Refugees being manipulated by cynical #Russian strategy, says #Lithuania ForMin

Even the Baltic Lithuania can recognize non linear warfare in action BUT the Obama WH totally misses it in Syria and or even in Ukraine.