This weekend’s Wall Street Journal (November 19-20, 2011) had two articles illustrating the backlash that is occurring in the region against China (the two articles were both on page A9 of the print version. Regrettably they are behind the online pay-wall).
First was a piece that discussed the decision by Myanmar’s long-isolated military junta to begin a strategic dialogue with the United States government. Cautious about falling for a fruitless North Korean-style string-along, President Obama called opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to discuss the junta’s proffer; she urged Obama to proceed.
Why would Myanmar’s rulers want to engage with the United States? The obvious answer is to diversify Myanmar away from its almost complete dependence on China. According to the Journal, a possible triggering event was recent domestic backlash against a Chinese-proposed hydroelectric dam project in Myanmar that would have flooded an area the size of Singapore.
But in a deeply authoritarian state like Myanmar, there must have been more to the junta’s calculation than that. Nor did junta members just realize that they have all of their eggs in the China basket. Some other calculation must have changed.
If China really is the future regional hegemon, it would not make sense for the junta to join the backlash now occurring around the region. Perhaps Myanmar’s leaders now have their own doubts about China’s future power.
The second article discussed Japan’s rapidly accelerating military diplomacy. Apparently in preparation for this month’s string of regional summit meetings in Hawaii and Indonesia, Japan signed new military cooperation pacts over the past few months with India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. This adds to similar agreements Japan has completed over the past few years with Singapore, Australia, and South Korea.
These agreements are no substitute for the long-standing hub-and-spoke security system run by U.S. Pacific Command from Hawaii. U.S. officials should welcome Japan’s supplementary effort and most any initiative it or other allies take to step up their own defense efforts.
Some may view Japan’s stepped up military engagement as a hedge against U.S. regional decline. Much more likely it is a message aimed directly at China, showing the consequences to those in Beijing who may be contemplating a challenge to the regional status quo.