News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. NK’s congress nears end with signs of military parade
2. Moon administration tells Biden to consider Singapore model
3. First vaccinated Koreans are on U.S. Army base
4. Pyongyang implies possible preemptive or retaliatory nuclear strikes
5. N. Korea invites guests to celebrations of party congress, possibly including military parade
6. N. Korean officials work on resolution to implement leader's guidance
7. N. Korean officials seen wearing masks at party congress after days of no-mask sessions
8. New virus cases in 500s on tougher curbs, alert high over potential upticks
9. North Korea sets up big security headache for Biden
10. North Koreans cynical about ‘self-reliance’ messaging during party congress
11. North Korea set for collision course with US as Kim Jong-Un solidifies one-man rule
12. Kim Jong Un gets a promotion, gives his sister a demotion
13. Why North Korea is going full-steam ahead on its nuclear weapons program
14. 'Your move, Mr President': North Korea sets the stage for Biden
15. Kim Yo Jong, sister of leader, missing from North Korea politburo list
16. S. Korea's Moon will press on to engage North
17. How North Korea and Japan could open dialogue
1. NK’s congress nears end with signs of military parade
Korea Herald · Ahn Sung-mi · January 12, 2021
The end is near and those NKPA soldiers are freezing their a**** off waiting for the parade to be done with.
2. Moon administration tells Biden to consider Singapore model
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Kang Tae-Hwa & Shim Kyu-Seok · January 12, 2021
The problem with the Singapore "model" is the different interpretations of each side.
Kim believes the agreement means to 1) change the relationship, 2) build trust, 3) then negotiate to denuclearize (the entire Korean peninsula).
The US side believes 1) negotiate to denuclearize the North, 2) build trust, 3) change the relationship.
The North wants to change the relationship and build trust by the US and international community ending sanctions and the US ending the "hostile policy" toward the north.
The North also wants to denuclearize the entire Korean peninsula.
Together (ending the hostile policy and denuclearizing the entire peninsula) this means: end the ROK/US alliance, remove US troops, and end extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan.
So, while the four points are logical and sound if properly interpreted, we have to understand how Kim views those four points of the Singapore agreement and how he thinks they should be implemented.
3. First vaccinated Koreans are on U.S. Army base
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Kim Youn-Ho & Esther Chung · January 12, 2021
Again, I strongly recommend that the vaccine be administered to all members, Koreans and Americans, of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command Headquarters. This is necessary to ensure the exercise in February/March is safely executed and readiness is sustained, and progress on OPCON transition can be made. This should be a priority for the ROK/US alliance.
4. Pyongyang implies possible preemptive or retaliatory nuclear strikes
Dong-A Ilbo · January 12, 2021
Kim is trying to not only establish deterrence but to conduct blackmail diplomacy (use tension, threats, and provocations to extort political and economic concessions) and to set the conditions for arms control negotiations with the US from a relatively "equal" relationship and a position of perceived strength.
5. N. Korea invites guests to celebrations of party congress, possibly including military parade
Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · January 12, 2021
What will Kim show us in the military parade?
6. N. Korean officials work on resolution to implement leader’s guidance
Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · January 12, 2021
How to implement the regime's rhetoric that will again fail? Is continued "self-reliance" a feasible course of action (I ask that rhetorically)? I would hate to be on any of the committees responsible for implementation. I would end up in a gulag for either recommending different courses of action or being part of another failed execution of policy and strategy. At the next party congress, my fellow officials and I would certainly be suffering from being blamed (if we made it until the next congress).
7. N. Korean officials seen wearing masks at party congress after days of no-mask sessions
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 12, 2021
What if the 8th Party Congress is a super spreader event for COVID and the regime elite is decimated by a COVID outbreak? What if COVID brought down the regime? Of course, this may seem far-fetched and a long shot, but I have to ask - are we ready for North Korean internal instability and potential regime collapse and the implosive and explosive effects this could cause? I am not making a prediction that the regime will collapse. But I will make the prediction that if the regime does collapse, it will be catastrophic.
It is interesting that the participants are now wearing masks. Are they responding to comments in international media about their lack of masks?
8. New virus cases in 500s on tougher curbs, alert high over potential upticks
Yonhap News Agency · 김한주 · January 12, 2021
Is the curve possibly flattening because of reduced testing?
9. North Korea sets up big security headache for Biden
9News · Richard Wood · January 12, 2021
Kim appears to say no to denuclearization. This should be no surprise. However, this does not mean that he is saying no to denuclearization negotiations. I think he wants to negotiate from an arms control standpoint that might cap nuclear weapons but importantly would not force him to give up nuclear weapons. And what we should understand is that if Kim does negotiate it is to support his long con and political warfare strategy which is designed to ultimately allow the regime to dominate the entire Korean peninsula. We need to execute a superior form of political warfare.
10. North Koreans cynical about ‘self-reliance’ messaging during party congress
Radio Free Asia · Jieun Kim et al · January 12, 2021
After seven decades of self-reliance, it is only natural to be cynical. What has Juche really done for the Korean people living in the North?
For seven decades tough times have always been ahead for the country.
11. North Korea set for collision course with US as Kim Jong-un solidifies one-man rule
Guardian · Justin McCurry · January 12, 2021
"Solidifies" one man-rule? When was it ever not solidified? Of course, the "fresh strategy" they want the US to adopt is one in which the US provides concessions and appeases the regime.
12. Kim Jong Un gets a promotion, gives his sister a demotion
Wall Street Journal · Timothy W. Martin & Andrew Jeong · January 11, 2021
I think we are making too much of this so-called demotion. I think she continues to wield power through her positions in the United Front Department, the Propaganda and Agitation department, and, most importantly, the most powerful organization in North Korea in direct support of Kim Jong-Un and the regime, the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD). I think these are more powerful than party titles, though of course these are all party organizations.
And, of course, the only decision-making body is the body of Kim Jong-Un.
13. Why North Korea is going full steam ahead on its nuclear weapons program
National Interest · Robert E. Kelly · January 11, 2021
Professor Kelly makes some good points in his analysis. But I would offer that the North's focus on strategic nuclear weapons is for deterrence and blackmail diplomacy. The focus on tactical nuclear weapons is about winning the war on the Korean peninsula. And this also supports other levels of blackmail diplomacy against South Korea, but we must take from this the understanding that the North has plans for and intends to someday win the war on the peninsula to force unification on its terms as the only way it believes can guarantee the long-term survival of the regime.
And, yes, there are other very valid concerns as Professor Kelly notes - to include the proliferation of tactical nuclear weapons.
14. 'Your move, Mr President': North Korea sets the stage for Biden
BBC · Laura Bicker · January 11, 2021
The chess game begins anew. Unfortunately, the chess pieces are nuclear weapons and real military capabilities.
15. Kim Yo Jong, sister of leader, missing from North Korea politburo list
UPI · Elizabeth Shim · January 11, 2021
But, again, her real power may be exercised through the OGD and, of course, she remains likely the only person Kim Jong-Un really trusts. We should not overthink this.
16. S. Korea's Moon will press on to engage North
Straits Times · January 12, 2021
Again, I urge the Moon administration to reassess its strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. Doubling done on the failed engagement strategy (and it is a failure because of Kim Jong-un) is not going to bring about different results or improve the security of the South. In the long run, it will likely pose a great danger to the ROK.
17. How North Korea and Japan could open dialogue
National Interest · Doug Bandow · January 11, 2021
Interesting analysis and a look at some history that is not often discussed.
"The men who lose their heads most easily, and who generally show themselves weakest on days of revolution are the military; accustomed as they are to have organized force facing them and an obedient force in their hands, they readily become confused before the tumultuous uproar of a crowd and in the presence of hesitation and occasional connivance of their own men."
- Alexis de Tocqueville
"He who fights against his own country is a child who would kill his mother."
- Napoleon
"The central task and the highest form of a revolution is to seize political power by armed force, to settle problems by war."
- Mao Tse-tung