Small Wars Journal

10/18/2020 National Security News and Commentary

Sun, 10/18/2020 - 12:09pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Andrew Narloch.

 

1. How the FBI took down Russian spies living in the U.S. and posing as Americans

2. Russian spies living among us: Inside the FBI's "Operation Ghost Stories"

3. China Warns U.S. It May Detain Americans in Response to Prosecutions of Chinese Scholars

4. The 31-day campaign against QAnon

5. Opinion | What Deters the Aggression of Cyberwarfare?

6. The preexisting conditions of the coronavirus pandemic

7. In the age of Covid, sanctions against 'rogue states' just spread the misery

8. Concerns Mount as US Seen Downplaying Al-Qaida Threat in Afghanistan

9. 11 Abu Sayyaf members yield in Sulu, military says

10. AFP: Marawi crisis a reminder that anti-terrorism campaign should also include prevention

11. Trump's Sanctions on International Court May Do Little Beyond Alienating Allies

12. The ugly reason 'The Star-Spangled Banner' didn't become our national anthem for a century

13. In Michigan Plot to Kidnap Governor, Informants Were Key

14. The US is Set on a Path to War with China. What Is to be Done?

15. 'Guns are a way to exercise power': how the idea of overthrowing the government became mainstream

16. How the Navy SEALs Were Born

 

1. How the FBI took down Russian spies living in the U.S. and posing as Americans

CBS News · by Resa Matthews

A fascinating account.  Great work by the FBI and the IC.

2. Russian spies living among us: Inside the FBI's "Operation Ghost Stories"

CBS-Produced by Resa Matthews and Anthony Venditti-OCTOBER 13, 2020

A long read,.  A lot of details in this report, to include Russian tradecraft.   There is video at the link.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-spies-operation-ghost-stories-fbi-declassified/

3. China Warns U.S. It May Detain Americans in Response to Prosecutions of Chinese Scholars

WSJ · by Kate O'Keeffe and Aruna Viswanatha

Previously the Chinese tried to spot, assess, and recruit students in China.  Now they will use them (and other Americans in China) to coerce the US.

4. The 31-day campaign against QAnon

The Washington Post · by Stephanie McCrummen · October 17, 2020

Another fascinating QAnon story.  It is amazing how influential this crazy conspiracy theory has become. However, i actually think we should not try to shut down these conspiracy theories.  I think we should allow them time in the sunlight and allow people to identify themselves as believers.  We then need to update government and business hiring practices.  We should make any connection to these crazy "organizations" disqualifying for employment.  And the US government should update its security clearance process.  We have a question of "Have you ever been a member of a communist party or belonged to an organization that seeks the overthrow of the US?" We should add to that something along the lines, "Have you ever believed in, supported or been a member of an organization that supports conspiracy theories against the US such as QAnon?"  Any connection to the organization to include social media posts should be disqualifying for employment in the US government.

5. Opinion | What Deters the Aggression of Cyberwarfare?

www-wsj-com.cdn.ampproject.org · Richard A. Clarke -by Oct. 16, 2020 6:22

Good question.  Unfortunately no answer is provided.Conclusion: "The question we need to ask is this: What strategic framework deters adversary aggression in a cyber conflict, where civilian industry is part of the theater, to achieve the objective of sustainable cyber peace?"

6. The preexisting conditions of the coronavirus pandemic

Ars Technica · by Adam Rogers, wired.com - Oct 18, 2020 

Some fascinating data.

7. In the age of Covid, sanctions against 'rogue states' just spread the misery

The Guardian · by Simon Tisdall · October 18, 2020

No no no.  Despotic leaders and their policy choices are what is responsible for the misty of the people.  That is certainly the case in north Korea and Kim provide it to us on 10 October.

8. Concerns Mount as US Seen Downplaying Al-Qaida Threat in Afghanistan

voanews.com · By Jeff Seldin-October 16, 2020

It used to be others downplaying the AQ threat with the US being accused of hyping it.  I think this is not a good pendul

9. 11 Abu Sayyaf members yield in Sulu, military says

news.abs-cbn.com · by ABS-CBN News

Some good news.

10. AFP: Marawi crisis a reminder that anti-terrorism campaign should also include prevention

GMA-October 17, 2020

But it is so hard for countries to invest in prevention.  Especially because it is so difficult to measure effectiveness of such campaigns.

11. Trump's Sanctions on International Court May Do Little Beyond Alienating Allies

The New York Times · by Pranshu Verma · October 18, 2020

Critics say the administration has targeted a human rights lawyer with economic penalties meant for warlords, dictators and authoritarian governments.

12. The ugly reason 'The Star-Spangled Banner' didn't become our national anthem for a century

The Washington Post · October 18, 2020

Interesting history. 

13. In Michigan Plot to Kidnap Governor, Informants Were Key

WSJ · by Zusha Elinson, Erin Ailworth and Rachael Levy

I think this is true. I see a lot of words on social media in which people espouse some dangerous ideas about actions they think should be necessary.  How do you separate the wheat from the chaff?

14. The US is Set on a Path to War with China. What Is to be Done?

counterpunch.org · by K.J. Noh · October 16, 2020

I don't know.  I am not convinced by this "analysis."   I think Mr. Noh may have reversed some of the ideas and who is responsible for what and who intends to do what.  That said there are people who believe this type of analysis so I think it is useful to know what they are saying.

15. 'Guns are a way to exercise power': how the idea of overthrowing the government became mainstream

The Guardian · by Lois Beckett · October 18, 2020

For all those who are talking about using political violence (from all political extremes) if the election does not go their way. I have some questions.  Can you say for sure the political process has been irreparably damaged and more important have you exhausted all political remedies to your grievances?   Second is what is your theory of victory through the use of political violence?  What is your vision of success following a violent overthrow?  Who and who do you intend to govern the US following a violent overthrow?  Do you no longer believe in the ideals of our Founding Fathers and our Constitution, Declaration of Independence, and Federalist Papers? And the bottom line is do you really think an objective analysis of your plans for a violent overthrow of our government will lead to a resolution of your grievances?

16. How the Navy SEALs Were Born

The National Interest · by Warfare History Network · October 17, 2020

As their experience improved and landings seemed achievable, planners realized that for amphibious warfare to be successful, attackers would need all possible information about the beach-landing objectives, submerged obstacles, hydrographics, and the regions just inland from the beaches. An Intelligence Section set up under the JTF was given the job of developing an amphibious reconnaissance capability.

 

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"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." 

- Joseph Stalin

"When you have a hammer, all problems start to look like nails.  But nations without great military power face the opposite danger: When you don't have a hammer, you don't want anything to look like nails." 

- Robert Kagan

''War is too important to be left to the generals.''

- Georges Clemenceau French Prime Minister during World War I reportedly said this

"There are no bad regiments; there are only bad colonels."  

- Napoleon I, 1769-1821