Small Wars Journal

Obama’s Syria Plan Teams Up American and Russian Forces

Thu, 07/14/2016 - 4:52am

Obama’s Syria Plan Teams Up American and Russian Forces by Josh Rogin, Washington Post

The Obama administration’s new proposal to Russia on Syria is more extensive than previously known. It would open the way for deep cooperation between U.S. and Russian military and intelligence agencies and coordinated air attacks by American and Russian planes on Syrian rebels deemed to be terrorists, according to the text of the proposal I obtained.

Secretary of State John F. Kerry plans to discuss the plan with top Russian officials in a visit to Moscow on Thursday. As I first reported last month, the administration is proposing joining with Russia in a ramped-up bombing campaign against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syria branch, which is also known as the Nusrah Front. What hasn’t been previously reported is that the United States is suggesting a new military command-and-control headquarters to coordinate the air campaign that would house U.S. and Russian military officers, intelligence officials and subject-matter experts.

Overall, the proposal would dramatically shift the United States’ Syria policy by directing more American military power against Jabhat al-Nusra, which unlike the Islamic State is focused on fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. While this would expand the U.S. counterterrorism mission in Syria, it would also be a boon for the Assad regime, which could see the forces it is fighting dramatically weakened. The plan also represents a big change in U.S.-Russia policy. It would give Russian President Vladi­mir Putin something he has long wanted: closer military relations with the United States and a thawing of his international isolation. That’s why the Pentagon was initially opposed to the plan…

Read on.

Comments

Outlaw 09

Tue, 11/29/2016 - 4:55am

REMEMBER the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH has spun the narrative FOR FIVE LONG YEARS that "there is no military solution to either eastern Ukraine and Syria".....OR at least that is what they spun us on......

WELL we now have a formal Russian military solution underway and we still see heavy military fighting in eastern Ukraine...

So were we basically being lied to in order to avoid the Obama WH having to take any action other than "just talking".......

SURE looks like "military solutions tend to work".....WHEN one has the personal courage to conduct them....which is missing from the Obama WH and Putin correctly judged as much....

Outlaw 09

Tue, 11/29/2016 - 4:52am

In the last five days we are seeing the utter and complete Obama WH failure in Syria....EVEN their own sponsored Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK is in fact killing FSA/TAF forces and civilians in eastern Aleppo.

Taken from Syrian thread today.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor
(a)You will have to admit that the West was too hasty in both lending its official support to the SNC and FSA in 2011, and then withdrawing it.
The 'West' never provided any kind of serious support for the SNC, and especially not for the FSyA.

This is likely to sound 'liberal' from US POV, or 'leftist' from EU POV, but... bottom line, the core problem with all the 'West' did in Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria, etc. was a pitiful apathy of self-serving cleptocracies run by big corporations that prefer to believe own prejudice and cheap PRBS.

See, 'Islam is incompatible with democracy'; see, 'they know no other language but that of violence'; see, 'they're going to declare an Islamic state' etc., while at the same time the very same 'establishment' in control of our governments cannot but support a never-ending war because they are all the time are cashing billions for armament spent in it.

But, of course, I'm emotionally involved and cannot analyse. Because of this I do not understand that such policy is 'securing hundreds of thousands of jobs', and thus 'preferable' to any kind of solutions that would actually end the war... Indeed, I am too blind but to see that 'fighting a war' is 'going to end sooner, and prove to be a far cheaper solution' - as so professionally demonstrated in the last 14 years, right?

Quote:
Given developments in Egypt, where the moderate or secular opposition was crushed between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood...
Wrong. The opposition in Egypt was a mix of seculars and the MBs. It won against Mubarak, and was 'decided to elect' the MBs. Then Egyptians discovered the MBs are not the best solution after all: thus, the very same opposition - including majority of the MBs - supported the army coup. And the army then 'restored' the 'order' from before 2011 - and smashed the opposition that supported its coup.

And the West did nothing at all, because... well, because neither was a solution it likes: it's far easier to keep a corrupt military dictator under control than any kind of a pluralist democracy.

Quote:
...and Libya, where it continues to struggle to survive, it was reasonable to assume that Syria was no different.
Are you sure it is?

Shall we dissect what happened in Libya since 2011, and then draw parallels to Syria?

Quote:
Indeed, the FSA went through a period roughly in 2012-2013 where it was suffering from internal tensions, defections to Nusra and other Islamist groups and conflict with other rebel groups.
Defections?

Name me one defection of any major FSyA unit to 'Nusra' or 'other Islamist groups', please.

Quote:
I believe that the FSA must be supported because if it is allowed to be crushed, the Sunni Arabs will turn to Daesh, Nusra or a similar group to protect them from the Alawis, Shias and Kurds.
Yeah, the usual legend on 'Assad or Daesh/Nusra etc.'...

Please, be so kind to explain me: what is your reasoning - which is so very widespread in the West, no doubt about that - that Syrians are left without solution but 'Assad or Daesh/Nusra etc.'?

Have you got any kind of substantiated basis for it?

Is it the ignorance of millions of Syrian refugees that fled to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Canada and wherever else...and the fact they are unlikely to return in the time of their life?

Is it the ignorance of millions of Syrians that are yet to follow?

**********

Quote:
(b) I fully agree with you on the technical aspects of the air defense threat. The issue is political not military.

Neither NATO nor the Coalition would agree to establish a no-fly zone where Russian aircraft are operating.

If the US unilaterally imposed a no-fly zone that covered areas where Russian aircraft were operating, I believe that Putin would ignore it. What then? What happens when US aircraft are shooting down Russian aircraft...
And that is the essence of that problem: there would be no Russian aircraft shoot down, because Russians wouldn't dare challenging a NFZ.

They would paint with SAM-radars, threaten, boast, complain, cry, offend, and lie, like they always do. And that's all.

The reason is simple, and expertly summarized here: The Delusion of Russian Power.

And re. 'unilateral decision, not supported by the UNSC'... recently, somebody asked me something like, 'if we do it unilaterally what is the effect on US prestige and credibility in the future?'

For there to be any kind of negative effects upon 'US prestige and credibility', there would first and foremost have to be anything of 'US prestige and credibility' left after all the nonsense the USA created in the last 16 years.

But, there is none of that left. Absolutely nothing. Not even 'wreckage'. Correspondingly, there can be no negative effects upon it.

Quote:
Any US president who believes that ousting Assad, Russia and Iran from Syria is more important than US national security, and its existing commitments to NATO and other allies, is not worthy of the office.
Oh, but sure. Because, letting the IRGC establish itself in control of most important parts of the Middle East - including more than half of known World-wide oil/gas sources, plus such a spiritually important area like Syria - is 'no threat for US national security'.

Very nice. Then let the IRGC do so, and then let it return to threaten Israel from a position reinforced by a magnitude.

...and you'll see how, 'all of a sudden', this is going to become 'the crucial issue of US national security', and there is going to be no end of blames about 'failures of Oblabla's foreign policies'.

Quote:
This is where I differ with you and Outlaw, because there are engaged, interested and passionate US officials all over the globe.
Absolutely. Indeed, I'm ready to agree (and sign a corresponding statement), any time of the day, that these officials are not only engaged, interested and passionate, but also professional and dedicated, convinced and dependable patriots too.

Please, have absolutely no doubts about this.

Just like there's no doubt that half of them have contracts for future jobs at various think-tanks or in defence sector in their pockets. With which we're back to 'point 1' in this post.
 
Precisely as expected, this morning there are already reports about mass arrests, indeed first reports about 'extrajudical killings' (read: summary executions) in the parts of Eastern Aleppo city 'liberated' by the regime, plus those about executions of POWs by the PKK/PYD/YPG.

Why is this 'as expected'? Because this is what Hanano used to look like, back in 2012.

In another giant success for democracy, freedom, and pluralism, the Local Council of Darayya, elected in free elections early this year and proven as one of most pluralist and most effective in all of insurgent-held areas of Syria, but then 'evacuated' (read: ethnically cleansed) by the IRGC in August, was officially dissolved, yesterday.

Instead, nowadays Iranian Mullahs are praying in Daraya.

One of very few videos out of eastern #Aleppo, shows Al-Shaar district in ruins.

A scene of total devastation.
https://youtu.be/N1C50-J2Ewo
 

Outlaw 09

Fri, 11/25/2016 - 1:01pm

IS the Obama WH NOW at war with a NATO member? AND is this NATO member doing a joint Turkish Russian deal n Syria...YES it is.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
[B]CrowBat.....what the heck is Assad up to...at some point he will in fact provoke a Turkish retaliation attack just because the Turkish people demand it....this is getting solid play in the Erdogan media outlets right now....would not think Putin wants to widen this war to include TAF engaging directly against Assad even though some in the Assad inner circle seem to want to attack Turkey directly.
What is he up to?

Proving he's in charge, and 'not' the IRGC or Russians, that's what he's up to.

Here a recommended reading in this regards: Syria regime set “red line” around Al-Bab: pro-Assad daily
Quote:
...“The timing of the airstrike targeting Turkish soldiers came to set Syria’s redlines in the strategic region; storming Al-Bab is forbidden,” an article published Friday by Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar said.
#
The report comes less than a day after a Syrian airstrike outside the ISIS stronghold of Al-Bab killed three Turkish soldiers, prompting Ankara to threaten retaliation.
#
Syria’s government, for its part, has made no official statement on the potentially escalatory incident, while pro-regime outlets based in the war-torn did not broach the subject.
...
Why?

Because: while one could call this article 'full of speculation', actually it's so that if al-Akbar publishes statements of this kind, these were 'sanctioned' by either Hezbollah, or even the Assad regime.

'No evidence'?

OK, then check this tweet by Hosein Mortada (a....hm... 'journalist' close to Assad), stating more of such air strikes can be expected in the next days.

Why all of this?

Well, because these are people from the so-called 'Old Guard' in Damascus: those left behind from Hafez's times.

Here a story about the most important thug between them - who now dares speaking out because he's apparently short of retirement:

A Voice From the Shadows (aka: The head of Syria’s Air Force Intelligence Directorate says Bashar al-Assad was too soft)
Quote:
A political taboo was quietly shattered this month, when one of Syria’s most powerful security officials, Lieutenant General Jamil al-Hassan, gave his first-ever interview to a Russian news site.
Though Hassan mostly voiced common pro-government positions that are in themselves unremarkable, the interview itself was a groundbreaking event. As head of the Air Force Intelligence Directorate, Hassan has almost never been heard from in public before, and Syrian intelligence chiefs take great care to stay out of the limelight. But another thing stood out, too: Hassan’s implicit criticism of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for having shown too much restraint in the early days of the Syrian uprising in 2011.
...

In the time of President Hafez al-Assad in the 1980s, these people were given a painful blow. It was almost lethal, particularly in Hama. I was a young first lieutenant. The decision at that time was a wise one. This time, we did not settle the matter from the beginning, which is why we have ended up where we are. But it was the decision of the leadership. As for me, my view was different. Take, for example, the students at the [Tiananmen] square in China, which changed China. If the Chinese state had not settled the student chaos, China would have been lost and the West would have destroyed it.
...

Many government loyalists seem to agree with that sentiment, but lesser figures than Hassan would hardly dare to place explicit blame on “the leadership,” which is government-speak for Bashar al-Assad. However, Hassan did not push his criticism any further. To the contrary, he insisted that the president enjoyed between 70–80 percent popular support in Syria and, when asked how he thought the late Hafez al-Assad might have handled the rebellion of 2011 had he been alive, Hassan gently defused the question: “I cannot guess at what he would have done, but every person is in his own particular situation. President Bashar al-Assad has endured major troubles, worse than those endured by the late president Hafez al-Assad.”
...
(That all said, the only thing really 'remarkable' about all of them - Bashar, Hassan, all sorts of their supporters [in real life or on the internet] etc. - is that they are all so convinced 'everything's going to be OK', if they 'only kill or brutalize any kind of opposition'.

And that 'forever'.)

************

BTW... talking about Assad always brings me to Oblabla... (isn't that association interesting...?). Here the newest example of his giant success in staying out of the '#### story':

PYD hits Turkish tanks with US#rockets
Quote:
The PYD, which targeted 2 armored vehicles belonging to the Turkish Armed Forces with Tow rockets, maintained similar attacks on the following day. Yet, another Turkish tank was reportedly exposed to a PYD attack on Wednesday afternoon in the region.
...
Namely, I can confirm such reports. One of my sources with PKK links said today that the PKK/PYD/YPG re-directed the entire stock of TOWs delivered by the USA about a week ago - from the frontlines to the Daesh, to those facing the TSK/FSyA north and west of Manbij.

With other words: the USA are now at least supporting if not outright 'at war' with literally everybody in Syria - including its NATO-ally Turkey.

Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Deep last night, some Russian plane made a direct flight from Latakia to Ankara. Reason unknown so far.
Sure. Somebody there had to explain the story on supposed Egyptian deployment to Syria, but also the next piece of Russian nonsense:

Hezbollah and Russia in first direct military meeting: report
Quote:
Hezbollah military officials have held their first ever direct meeting with their Russian counterparts in a landmark sitdown that tackled the Aleppo front, according to a daily close to the powerful Lebanese militant organization.

“Less than a week ago, Aleppo witnessed the first direct meeting between Hezbollah field commanders and Russian army officers,” Al-Akhbar reported Thursday.

The Lebanese daily said that the gathering “came at the request of the Russians” who were impressed by Hezbollah’s military performance during the “Battle of Martyr Abu Omar Saraqeb,” a failed rebel offensive launched in late October against regime positions in western Aleppo.

After observing the results of the rebel campaign, which was turned back thanks in part to Hezbollah’s large military presence on the frontlines, Russia last week called for a meeting with the Lebanese organization, according to Al-Akhbar.
...
Oh man... this deserves a big bag of popcorn and a year-supply of Cola to watch.

Namely, I can't wait to see how Putler thinks he can separate Hezbollah (Lebanon) from he IRGC

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/28/2016 - 3:26am

The anti Assad forces have deemed this to be the "Mother of all battles"....the fight for Aleppo has now officially started....OPSEC which the rebels have been practicing well lately will keep the initial reports flowing in slowly.....so as to not give Russians and Assad target info....

Zero Hour for #Aleppo
The battle to break the siege started 2 h ago
It's the mother of all battles that will decide the destiny of the city

Yes, civilians will die in the all-out rebel assault.
But the world left rebels no other option by ignoring 275.000 besieged civilians.
 

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/26/2016 - 3:53am

NGO claim #US lead Anti-#IS coalition killed 300+ civilians in #Syria the past 2 years.
#Russia'n airstrikes do this in only some weeks

Russia'n diplomats nervous because possible #UN "Special Emergency Session" about #Syria

ESPECIALLY after they were highly unsuccessful in blocking a UNHRC Resolution calling out the Assad war crimes officially...they attempted SIX times to block and were overruled all six times by the majority of the UNHRC members.

UNHRC decisions carry weight inside the UNSC and UNGA.....

40 ppl. were killed by #AssadPutin & #ISIS on Tuesday in #Syria, incl. 5 children.
12 of the victims died in & around #Aleppo.
- LCC

Another perspective on the same #Assad regime GAS attack yesterday WHICH western MSM took no notice of....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eD8or81BCaA#
Red lines, drawn in sand ...
UNSC Resolutions quickly forgotten....

Children are screaming as an #Assad air force helicopter drops GAS on them in #Lataminah yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycDXxpbwn2I#

Outlaw 09

Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:33am

The Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH instead of focusing on their FP mantra of "doing nothing stupid" should have paid attention to the Arabic language a little more......

SO true.......
Poster Shared by Ahrar al Sham to their combat units in and around Aleppo.

"Strive ....History is not written twice"

Outlaw 09

Tue, 10/25/2016 - 4:33am

The Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH instead of focusing on their FP mantra of "doing nothing stupid" should have paid attention to the Arabic language a little more......

SO true.......
Poster Shared by Ahrar al Sham to their combat units in and around Aleppo.

"Strive ....History is not written twice"

Outlaw 09

Mon, 10/24/2016 - 1:56pm

CIA told POTUS he can't defeat #IS while #Assad remains, arranged plan
Allies thought was approved. Obama punted.

Obama called Turks in 2011 and said he would remove Assad from power one way or another via @yahyabostan

Turkey also feels deceived on the #Syria "Plan B" proposed in the spring: thought it was a "yes," now find it'll be decided by next POTUS.

"Erdogan has repeatedly slammed the U.S. for...choosing a terrorist organization [#YPG/#PKK] over its NATO ally."

Outlaw 09

Mon, 10/24/2016 - 1:24pm

Kyle W. Orton
Verified account
‏@KyleWOrton
Because of "international matters" (i.e. U.S. pressure) #FSA attempt to recover Tel Rifaat from #PYD has been halted

http://bit.ly/2f0J4KI

Quote:
A rebel commander says the Turkish-rebel offensive on the Kurdish militia YPG has been called off.
Abu Firas of the Sham Front said the move on the town of Tel Rifaat was cancelled because of “international matters”.
Turkey carried out airstrikes on YPG positions inside Syria for the first time last Wednesday, and the Free Syrian Army and other units began ground attacks on Friday.
See Syria Daily, Oct 22: Turkish-Supported Rebels Begin Offensive v. Kurdish Militia
However, on Friday the US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter visited Ankara. Washington supported the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Front, which has been pushing back the Islamic State last autumn.
Abu Firas said the Turkish-rebel force would now look towards the ISIS-held town of al-Bab, northeast of Aleppo city.
The YPG, the military branch of the Syrian Kurdistan Democratic Union Party (PYD), and rebels have battled since last year. In early 2016 the YPG took opposition territory, including Tel Rifaat, in northern Aleppo Province.
Turkey considers the PYD and YPG to be part of the Turkish Kurdish insurgency PKK

Obama WH does not want to support the CIA activities in Syria BUT it can pressure the anti Assad groups into not attacking the Kurdish terrorist group PKK....
 

Outlaw 09

Mon, 10/24/2016 - 2:56am

REALLY worth rereading and rereading...AND then rereading it again....

@peterpomeranzev: In his post-fact world, #Putin’s web of lies is entangling the West | Comment in The Sunday Times
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/in...ies-vf523h5mr#

AND the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH has fully bought into them......

SINCE the advent of the Russian info warfare starting for the West with the Russian military annexation of Crimea and then on to the Russian military invasion of eastern Ukraine and now in Syria....Peter Pomeranzev has been one of the leading voices of what Russian propaganda really looks like....
 

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/22/2016 - 12:11pm

Gen John Allen and @Charles_Lister offer a path to rescuing U.S. interests in Syria and, not-incidentally, lives.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.873df87e2aae

Bring Syria’s Assad and his backers to account now

Quote:
John Allen, a retired U.S. Marine general, led the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013 and the international coalition to counter the Islamic State from 2014 to 2015. Charles R. Lister is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of “The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency.”

For 5½ years, the Syrian government has tortured, shot, bombed and gassed its own people with impunity, with the resulting human cost clear for all to see: nearly 500,000 dead and 11 million displaced. Since Russia’s military intervention began one year ago, conditions have worsened, with more than 1 million people living in 40 besieged communities. Thirty-seven of those are imposed by pro-government forces.

While subjecting his people to unspeakable medieval-style brutality, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has sabotaged diplomatic initiatives aimed at bringing a lasting calm to his country. The most recent such diplomatic scheme was trashed not just by Assad, but also Russia, whose aircraft were accused of subjecting a U.N.-mandated aid convoy to a ferocious two-hour attack in September.

Since then, at least 2,500 people have been killed and wounded in eastern districts of Aleppo, amid horrendous bombardment by Syrian and Russian aircraft, and Russia cynically vetoed a U.N. resolution that would have prohibited further airstrikes in the city.

It is time for the United States to act more assertively on Syria, to further four justifiable objectives: to end mass civilian killing; to protect what remains of the moderate opposition; to undermine extremist narratives of Western indifference to injustice; and to force Assad to the negotiating table.

The United States should not be in the business of regime change, but the Assad clique and its backers must be brought to account before it is too late. The world will not forgive us for our inaction.

The consequences of continued inaction are dreadful. U.S. policy has never sought to decisively influence the tactical situation on the ground. Unrealistic limitations on vetting and a policy that prohibited arming groups to fight the regime left us unable to effectively fight the Islamic State or to move Assad toward a transition. U.S. policy and strategy on Syria had a major disconnect, in being focused militarily on a group that was a symptom of the civil war without any means to achieve the stated policy objective: Assad’s departure.

The hole in this strategy could only have been filled by a comprehensive train-and-equip program for moderate Syrians to fight the Islamic State and decisively resist regime forces. Sadly, we have allowed this connective tissue between our counter-Islamic State strategy and our policy to remove Assad — the moderate Syrian opposition — to come under sustained attack by the regime and Russia.

For years we’ve said there can be no military outcome in Syria, but the Russians and their allies have pushed the military dimension of the crisis to strengthen the regime’s political position and, in the name of fighting “terrorism,” to systematically eliminate the opposition, including moderate Syrians we judged should be part of the political process of transitioning Assad out. These objectives were derived from our unwillingness to tangle with the regime, and now also the Russians.

The administration’s condemnation of Russia, and its forecast of a Vietnam-like morass for Moscow, seem a misunderstanding of Moscow’s calculus. Russia will determinedly protect its interests by any means, including attacking civilians and U.N. aid convoys. The expectation that Russia will tire of its Syria “quagmire” and become diplomatically pliable ignores reality. Russia has shown a remarkable capacity to dig in behind bad policy and fight under adversity.

Ultimately, Vladi#mir Putin’s Russia must be — or at least seem to be — on the ascendancy, as it is in Ukraine, along NATO’s frontier, in Syria and even in Libya. Russia’s repaired relationship with Turkey and improved ties elsewhere further complicate U.S. policy.

Ultimately, this leaves us only two options. First, the United States should encourage and join its European allies in imposing an escalatory set of economic sanctions against Russia and bodies and individuals supporting its military and paramilitary activities in Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere.

The second option is one the Russians believe the United States will never do: Escalate the conflict. The United States must challenge the status quo and end the regime’s war crimes, by force if necessary. This need not require some major pronouncement. Indeed, for now, a quiet warning may be more effective, since a major public announcement would almost certainly polarize the situation further.

For a start, the United States must save Aleppo. Damascus, Moscow and Tehran are razing the city to prepare for an eventual ground assault. As both the CIA and Pentagon have concluded, an opposition loss in Aleppo would severely undermine the United States’ counterterrorism objectives in Syria. The city’s symbolism and strategic value are unmatched, and allowing it to fall would dramatically empower extremist narratives. Groups linked to al-Qaeda would reap the rewards of our shortcomings.

To save Aleppo, the United States and its allies must both accelerate and broaden the provision of lethal and nonlethal assistance to vetted moderate opposition groups. This assistance would aim to empower other frontlines in northern and southern Syria to force pro-regime forces to divert attention from Aleppo. Opposition groups should also be provided with the means to bombard regime military airfields, many of which already lie within indirect fire and artillery rocket range.

Simultaneously, the United States must use existing multilateral mechanisms to push for a new cessation of hostilities in Syria in which flagrant violations will be met with targeted U.S. military consequences. Should such an agreement prove impossible due to the likely intransigence from Damascus and its supporters, the United States should gather a “coalition of the willing” to credibly threaten military action against Assad’s military infrastructure.

Initiating such a sequence would almost certainly result in the eventual use of targeted, punitive force in Syria. Any action should target Syrian military facilities and assets involved in supporting the bombardment of civilians, such as military airfields, aircraft, weapons stores and artillery positions. We should expect the possible intentional co-mingling of Syrian and Russian forces and assets as a deterrent. While this may complicate targeting strategies, we should not miss the opportunity to hit offending Syrian elements and units, while sustaining counter-Islamic State operations elsewhere.

In addition, the United States should consider establishing and supporting a task force of regional Special Operations forces, which could play an advisory role in assisting vetted opposition groups in attacking regime assets.

The credibility of the United States as the leader and defender of the free world must be salvaged from the horrific devastation of Syria. It is not too late to enforce international law and norms. However, we cannot wait for a new administration in Washington. Events are moving too quickly.

Bashar al-Assad is not the solution to the Syrian crisis, and he is the least-qualified possible partner in a fight against terrorism, having spent much of the past 16 years aiding and abetting al-Qaeda and, it would appear, the Islamic State as well. Action certainly presents risks, but to allow events to continue to unfold as they are means raising the cost yet further for a future, inevitable U.S. intervention.

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/22/2016 - 4:15am

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
My latest:

"Russia Moves in For the Kill in #Syria"

(Spoiler: they probably can't do it)
https://goo.gl/qsd5lZ

Russia is hell-bent on crushing #Syria's rebellion (and humiliating Obama one last time).

A lot of very fast-moving parts in #Aleppo, including #Turkey-backed rebels. Probably enough to hold #Assad/#Russia in place.

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/21/2016 - 11:08am

CIA and Joint Chiefs consider fall of Aleppo a counterterrorism problem. Fortunately, Obama knows better:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/....0fd2fb25ad43#

WHY does the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH "want to tie the hands of the next President"........?????

Another drastic reduction of ATGM launches by Syrian rebels in October:
https://justpaste.it/October2016ATGM

Obama is again restricting TOWs as he has done in the past hoping to pressure the anti Assad forces into surrendering to the Russians....ALL "to tie the hands of the next President"....

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/21/2016 - 8:13am

THIS Syrian statement says a lot about the so called US supported Kurdish YPG/SDF/PKK....as being a solid IS fighting proxy and NOT TIED DIRECTLY to Assad and Putin....

HOW could have Obama, CENTCOM and DoD get it so wrong??????

#Syria’s Army threatens to shoot down #Turkey’s jets due to their strikes vs. YPG/SDF in N. #Aleppo

ALL of the above have somehow totally forgotten that the RuAF has been providing YPG/SDF/PKK CAS in their drive against positions held by FSA NOT IS.....

REMEMBER YPG/SDF/PKK AND IS have been willing partners/allies in the Assad/Putin siege of Aleppo....

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/21/2016 - 3:14am

REMEMBER the very loud arguments out of the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH over the last four years that by providing weapons they would fall into the hands of "AQ".....yes we all remember that particular argument well.....

BUT WAIT.......
Total TOW missile use in Syria
- 1,030 by vetted FSA
- 9 by non-vetted groups (inc. AQ & ISIS)
= 0.8% proliferation rate.

DEFINTELY FAR BETTER THAN WHAT WE SHIPPED TO THE IRAQI ARMY THAT HAS LANDED IN THE ARMS OF IRANIAN SHIA MILITAS AND IS BEING NOW USED TO FIGHT FSA INSIDE SYRIA...BUT THE OBAMA WH AND DOD SAYS NOTHING ABOUT THAT DO THEY??????

SO who in the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH has been spinning us and the MSM badly.....???????

Outlaw 09

Thu, 10/20/2016 - 8:36am

Maybe the Trump comments last night on the sheer number of new nuclear warheads FINALLY motivated the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH because numerous complaints that the Russians were in complete violation of the INF backed by evidence over the last four years did not previously motivate them......

U.S. Calls For Meeting With Russia Over Missile Treaty Dispute
http://www.rferl.org/a/28064316.html

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/19/2016 - 1:06pm

When you see a child carrying the dead body of another child, you know you are in Syria.

Photo posted on Syrian thread.....

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/19/2016 - 6:22am

Putin's plan for the week:
Tu. Implement Syria cease-fire.
We. Sound reasonable at Berlin summit.
Th. Undermine EU debate on new sanctions

AND the US Obama/Rhodes/Kerry plan.......is none

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/19/2016 - 5:45am

Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Aleppo today
#AssadPutin's #EthnicCleansing busses prepare to transport "terrorists" out of the city via the Castello road tomorrow.

WHAT is interesting is that there is total silence out of the anti Assad forces in Aleppo numbering close 10,000 and only an estimated 500-700 are JFS WHO in theory would be leaving BUT ASSAD and PUTIN thinks somehow all are leaving......IMHO they will not be leaving nor will JFS be leaving any time soon as they are all prepared to go down fighting.....

THINK about it...there are absolutely no international guarantees for their safety and Assad/Putin have declared they are killing IS and JFS....would you get on a bus???? Especially since even the UN has a poor track record in
Syria of protecting anti Assad forces....AND Putin does not have a great track record for protecting surrender corridors....ASK the Ukrainian UAF?????

Silence has been the response for the rebels to the Russian/Assad offer.....AND think about it...the so called massive Assad regime to capture Aleppo has repeatedly failed thus really a military offensive failure across the board....and more bombing causes more demands for MORE sanctions on Putin and company...WHICH Obama is actually blocking...why I have no idea....

WHY would actually JFS get on busses flying the Assad fly they have been fighting against for over four long years?....NOT a single UN/SRC flag to be seen.....
Syrian war: Rebels reject Aleppo withdrawal offer from Moscow; UN says all parties must agree first

19 October 2016 Reuters

Quote:
Syrian rebels have rejected Russia's offer of a withdrawal of fighters from Aleppo after Moscow announced a halt in air raids which it said was designed to allow insurgents to leave and to separate moderate fighters from extremist militants.

Key points:
Rebels deem the offer "surrender" and pledge to fight on
UN says Russian unilateral statement is insufficient
Red Cross says it is unclear how much time is needed to get security clearances

"The factions completely reject any exit — this is surrender," said Zakaria Malahifji, the political officer of the Aleppo-based Fastaqim group.

On Monday, Moscow said that Russian and Syrian forces would pause their attacks on Aleppo for eight hours on Thursday to allow rebels to leave while allowing humanitarian aid to enter.

On Tuesday, Russia halted all air strikes, two days ahead of time.
But the United Nations said that Russia's unilateral plan for a humanitarian pause would not ensure any supplies get into besieged eastern Aleppo because Russia and Syria and other groups fighting in the city have not yet given guarantees of safety for aid workers.

"We need assurances from all parties to the conflict, not just a unilateral announcement that this will happen," UN spokesman Jens Laerke said on Tuesday.

"We need everybody to give us those assurances before it is immediately useful for us to do anything meaningful."

The International Committee of the Red Cross also said it was still unclear how much time would be needed to get security guarantees from all sides, including from rebel fighters.

Meanwhile, Al-Farouk Abu Bakr, an Aleppo commander in the powerful Islamist group Ahrar al-Sham, added that the rebels would fight on.

"When we took up arms at the start of the revolution to defend our abandoned people we promised God that we would not lay them down until the downfall of this criminal regime," he said, referring to President Bashar al-Assad's Government.

"There are no terrorists in Aleppo," he said.
Rebels in eastern Aleppo have consistently said that insurgent groups linked to Al Qaeda or inspired by it have no real presence in the opposition-held part of the city.

The Russia-Syria bombing campaign has destroyed most health facilities in the besieged city, where 406 people were killed and 1,384 wounded between September 23 and October 8, according to UN data based on reports from medical facilities
.

REMEMBER the exact Russian actions WHEN even with the agreed to recent US/Russia "deal" and all approving the urgent shipment of aid into Aleppo a KEY CORE element of the US/Russian "deal" the Russian AF bombed the Turkish aid convoy for over TWO full hours killing 21 and destroying aid for 123,000......
 

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/19/2016 - 5:05am

Ever wonder why this occurs.....we seem to be unable to learn from our mistakes which just keep on happening...???

The weak coverage of ISIS's defeat from Dabiq by fellow Sunnis is solid evidence the US-led coalition is clueless about how to uproot ISIS.

THIS is indeed a Sunni fight and no one else should be involved..SAD but true.....

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/19/2016 - 5:07am

Deleted....repeated

Outlaw 09

Mon, 10/17/2016 - 4:33am

No EU sanctions, no use of force, no nothing against #PutinAtWar in #Syria.
@FedericaMog will negotiate until the last civilian is killed.

The destroyed several residential areas.
Many killed & wounded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9thDmwO6h8#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0urhKI3Blyc#

SO there are now officially no war crimes, starvation and genocide being committed anywhere in Syria.....THAT is great Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH leadership hard at work.....

BREAKINGNEWS
RUSSIAN JETS UNLEASH HELL ON #LATAMINAH RIGHT NOW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N50PBijwiPk#

BreakingFootage
#Aleppo tonight.
The #Russian #BunkerBuster bombs obliterated entire blocks of flats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTnccxpjoDU#

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/15/2016 - 4:45am

BUT WAIT....here comes the "truth".....

State department spox Toner: "don't expect any breakthroughs in Lausanne." Hope to get multilateral talks on Syria back up and running.

AND from the Russians....as usual.....
Al Arabiya English
Verified account
‏@AlArabiya_Eng
#Breaking #Russia does not intend to put forward new initiatives on #Syria crisis at Lausanne

SO WHY TALK???

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/15/2016 - 4:35am

Won my bet that the Obama WH would do nothing until they leave....after they announced really for spin purposes and to cover for the Russians and Iranians....that the President was going over his so called "military options"....

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister
After more consultations, White House has decided to give #Syria talks another go
[Try again & again, hoping result will change = insanity]

NOTICE just how the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH caves to Russian demands in order to just get this meeting WHICH in the end will achieve absolutely nothing....

Moscow shaping participants to attend tomorrow's #Syria meeting in #Lausanne:

#Russia
#Egypt
#Iran
#Iraq

#US

#Saudi
#Turkey
#Qatar

NOTICE that the US is not by any means a "neutral party" as Kerry has repeatedly supported the Putin position first on Assad and secondly on disarming the anti Assad forces and forcing them to surrender "believing" that the "ballot box" over rules the motto..."all power comes from the barrel of a gun"....especially when those individuals have more guns than the other side has....

REMEMBER when Kerry stated Putin and Assad should be charged with war crimes for their hospital bombing campaign AND THEN his own DoS spokesperson WALKED IT BACK....and he and the DoS has never said another word about war crimes have they....????

BUT WAIT another hospital is hit by Russian air strikes yesterday....ONE day before the Swiss meeting is to occur....accident or intentional....???

UOSSM Canada ‏@uossmCan 11h
11 hours ago

#Breaking video of Hospital bombed in Aleppo hours ago.

Aleppo City today.
The #AssadPutin terrorism continues.
Let's talk to #Russia!
Will make things better for sure!...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUgd...utu.be#

Another air strike to add to the dozens of shells lobbed into eastern #Aleppo tonight

Like every day, #AssadPutin air strikes hit the besieged areas in eastern #Aleppo city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0vsku4BbR8#

Scary-looking explosions on fields around #Lataminah in #Hama today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgLYfVMOFp0#

Turkish presidential spox İ. Kalın on the upcoming talks in #Lausanne
#Assad regime,#Russian air strikes off the table
Mission accomplished.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgLYfVMOFp0#

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/14/2016 - 3:19pm

From the New York Times today.....maybe the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH need to read and reread it......

Critic's Notebook
Berlin, 1945; Grozny, 2000; Aleppo, 2016
By MICHAEL KIMMELMAN 10:02 AM ET
In Aleppo, a drone video reveals a destruction so complete that it obliterates even a sense of time.

Have posted the links to this set of videos on the Syrian thread in the past few days and I think a link to the NYT's article itself...was posted there as well.

THIS is the direct result when a US FP of "do nothing stupid" is allowed to fully and completely function.....

Outlaw 09

Thu, 10/13/2016 - 4:09am

Kerry blasts into US MSM that Assad and Putin should be investigated for their war crimes in Syria especially the destruction of all anti Assad hospitals...BUT THEN HIS DoS BACKPEDALS......

But then the French President Hollande publicly states Putin should be charged with war crimes and that is followed by the UK Parliament statements to the same effect....

BUT THEN both are not invited by Kerry to the Swiss Syrian talks this weekend.....

SO did Kerry/Obama/Rhodes "cave" on their own public statements....

Only watch if you can take it!
One of many killed/wounded children in today's #AssadPutin air strikes on #KafrLaha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5i65idLSre0 …

More of the dead and wounded kids in the town.
Because we keep talking with #Russia instead of grounding #Assad's air force NOW.

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/12/2016 - 6:46am

In reply to by Outlaw 09

103 civilians were killed by #AssadPutin on Tuesday in #Syria, incl. 21 children.
59 of the victims died in and around #Aleppo
- LCC

A displaced woman & her two daughters were killed in this #Russian attack on #Jarjanaz in Idlib prov. this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVi7...utu.be#

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/12/2016 - 6:43am

SO just how is that great FP of the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH working these days...just ask Ukrainians and Syrians...

In Syrian.....

Videos and still photos are pouring in..way to many to post right now....
#Syria is under attack by #AssadPutin.
Hundreds of raids since the morning.

Saqba
#Aleppo
#Hamouria
#Kafr_Batna
#Hazza
#Jober
#Harasta
#Douma
#Sakik
#Dael
#Ibtaa
#Drousha
#Khan_Sheih

AND IT IS JUST NOON......
 
In eastern Ukraine....

Avdeevka
#Shyrokyne
#Vodyane
#Lebedynske
#Pisky
#Marinka
- ALL shelled/ground attacked by #Putin's forces today
 
Shyrokyne/Mariupol is still under heavy 152mm artillery attacks after a number of breakthrough attempt attacks that occurred during the night....using IFVs and tanks...

THIS WH has only a little over TWO months to g and they have absolutely no idea what to do other than doing nothing stupid until they leave office....basically having failed in eastern Ukraine and Syria...

Outlaw 09

Wed, 10/12/2016 - 6:11am

Russian Mindefence "Zvezda TV": Pentagon plans to defeat Russia in 20 days and hand over governance to NATO

WHAT planet has the Russian MoD landed on these days??????
 

Outlaw 09

Tue, 10/11/2016 - 12:36pm

Recently Kerry spoke about possible war crimes charges against Assad and Putin...THEN DoS WALKED back his comments and NOW total silence on the topic from both Kerry and DoS......

Aftermath of a #Russian #BunkerBuster attack on #Aleppo city today.
Dozens killed among them a number of babies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22febRhpARE#

MORE than 30 killed and MORE 60 than wounded in a single Russia set of air strikes.....

In this @AleppoAMC video from #Aleppo's Bustan al-Qasr neighborhood, a backhoe is used instead of hammers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivLLMvbI4ys#

.@AleppoAMC video shows destruction in Karm al-Katerji neighborhood of #Aleppo. Hammers are used to break up rubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22febRhpARE#

Outlaw 09

Tue, 10/11/2016 - 12:07pm

We often forget here that the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH FP towards Russia in eastern Ukraine is just as messed up as it is in Syria...maybe even more so....

Proudly presenting our 360° report from 1 of the most-destroyed towns in eastern #Ukraine
Shocking in every respect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u32g-et35Zg#

WELL worth watching....

Outlaw 09

Tue, 10/11/2016 - 5:24am

Something for the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH to kill the next two months with....
"Risk" strategy#board game now in "#Syria Edition" available.
 
Drone footage from @ishmael12345611 showed scale of destruction in E #Aleppo's al-Muyassar neighborhood last week: https://www.facebook.com/ishmael.ala.../?permPage=1#

Outlaw 09

Tue, 10/11/2016 - 4:31am

Taken from the Syrian thread
SOHR claim hundreds of MANPAD, ATGM & Grad rockets arrived to rebels in #Syria
http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=52036

Previously reported by Charles Lister here but not confirmed.
CrowBat.....had previously also indicated Qatar, Turkey and KSA were hauling weapons like crazy and that was days before Charles commented...

Charles Lister.....
Does not surprise him about the denials....even when they have arrived they have never been openly displayed....

IMHO...personally they are there in the number being quoted 121...as the number was to specific when commented on.....QUESTION is what type and effective ranges.....

ANOTHER QUESTION would be has and or is the Obama WH fully aware that MANPADS are going in as this is a solid indicator the GCC (especially though Qatar, Turkey, KSA) have written Obama off...

Response from CrowBat....

One of particularly absurd and obscene facts about this war is that since late July, up to a dozen of convoys carrying supplies for insurgents and jihadists are underway along different roads of Idlib, and Western Aleppo, every single day.

Not one of these has been intercepted and bombed so far.

Which points in direction of Russian commanders in Syria being a gang of particularly cynical and incompetent thugs. They're tracking single Syrian Civil Defense vehicles with UAVs and targeting these, but can't find entire convoys carrying arms...

Outlaw 09

Mon, 10/10/2016 - 11:02am

Article from a Russian fascist neo nationalist ideologue who has the ear of Putin and his circle....

Alexandr Dugin @A_G_Dugin
Orchestrated Ukraine Coup to Re-Start Cold War and Prevent Russia from Leading Global Revolt Against LGBT Agenda
http://katehon.com/1005-obama-orches...t-agenda.html#

How many fronts can the Kremlin handle? Russian troops now seemingly engaged in active combat in Ukraine, Syria and North Caucasus.
https://twitter.com/KSokirianskaia/status/785460637417762816 

Outlaw 09

Mon, 10/10/2016 - 10:50am

Obama has also not realized eastern Ukraine and Syria are explicitly intertwined......

"The Ballad of Infantry" dedicated to the warfighters of Ukraine who protect their country from Russia
https://youtu.be/HZlyOmsDjew

Outlaw 09

Mon, 10/10/2016 - 4:36am

Russian TV warns US: Kalibr missiles on Russian warships sent to Med can have nuclear warheads, as can Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad.

DAY FOUR of the Putin Missile Crisis in Kaliningrad....AND yet the Obama WH AND the entire DoD and IC SAY NOT A SINGLE WORD?????

I have never seen in over 70 odd years this many open ended Russian nuclear threats issued and issued as fast.....either Putin is seriously contemplating WW3 OR is he massively insecure...AND he is talking up his own courage to confront the US....

WITH the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH remaining totally silent....lends itself to be viewed by Putin as a sign of weakness and a lack of resolve on the part of the US...which can in fact end to a totally wrong assumption by Putin and onto WW3 we go...

Outlaw 09

Sun, 10/09/2016 - 8:59am

MUST be fully read and understood as it goes to the heart of Khomeini's "Green Crescent" and his "Revolutionary Islam".....SOMETHING that the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH had evidently never even heard about.....

.@martinchulov has a new piece up that really is must-read, about Iran's strategic goals in the ME: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...share_btn_fb#

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/08/2016 - 3:27pm

It's been over 24 hrs. IC confirmed Putin's Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 move. Not ONE peep from White House+Pentagon.

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/08/2016 - 3:36pm

In reply to by Outlaw 09

French UNSC ambassador: "we all remember Guernica, Srebrenica & Grozny - what we are seeing in Aleppo is the repetition of this"

AND Obama/Rhodes and Kerry ALL remain quiet as church mice......

Russia is down to 1 ally in #UNSC & that's Venezuela. Significant that China split from Russia. & that Egypt voted for text Russia vetoed

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/08/2016 - 3:21pm

"A country that vetoes the French resolution on #Aleppo would be discredited in the eyes of the world."
President @fhollande

BUT WAIT....Putin does not really care what the rest of the world thinks and or does...he only responds if pressure is applied to him..either military or economic...disconnect him from SWIFT and then see how fast Assad is kicked out of Syria.....

HATE to say it...told you so.....AND Kerry/Obama and the entire NSC did absolutely nothing.....

BREAKING: #Russia vetoes UN resolution on #Aleppo truce

Russia just vetoed the #Aleppo/#Syria resolution entrenching even deeper in the position of Cold War 4.0 enforcers.

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/08/2016 - 2:58am

Russia has seized the advantage in #Syria: neutralized Turkey, outmaneuvered the West, writes @hxhassan
http://timep.org/commentary/a-breakt...gime-in-syria/

By: Hassan Hassan
10-07-2016

Quote:
More than a year into the Russian intervention in Syria, the long-term impact of the involvement has remained constant since the first two months of the campaign: the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s government has become untenable.

The Russian campaign has been more successful than many observers anticipated in ensuring the regime does not lose. It has also been too limited to turn the tables and enable a regime victory, an outcome defined as the takeover of the country, the surrender of the rebels, or the stability of what the regime currently holds. However, two recent developments appear to help the regime and its Russian backers achieve the breakthrough in northern Syria they have sought since launching the mission last year.

The first development was the Turkish-backed operation to fight the Islamic State in the eastern countryside of Aleppo on August 23 this year. When the operation started, Moscow issued a three-paragraph statement that situated the Turkish operation in its narrow context of being directed at the Islamic State and Syrian Kurdish militias.

The Russian foreign ministry expressed concerns about the development and the prospect of greater civilian losses and heightened ethnic tensions between Arabs and Kurds.#The ministry made no mention of concerns related to the regime, a clear indication that Moscow did not oppose the operation but reserved the right to retract its tacit approval. Russia, as well as Iran and the regime in Damascus, was increasingly worried about the ambitions of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its militia—the People’s Protection Units or YPG—as the Kurdish group was poised to play an even greater role in the fight against the Islamic State in three provinces in northern Syria.

The Turkish incursion into northern and eastern Syria serves as a check on Kurdish expansion in that region.

Due to mutual understanding or alignment of interests, Russia avoided confrontation with Turkey. And Turkey reciprocated. During the vicious Russian onslaught on Aleppo over the past few weeks, Ankara uncharacteristically avoided hostile rhetoric against Moscow. Despite pleas by the opposition for regional backers to act against the intensification of the airstrikes, the response from Ankara was that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would make a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin to revive a failed U.S.-Russian ceasefire plan.

Such a position by Turkey is uncharacteristic. Even though Turkish officials have demonstrated an inclination toward diplomacy since the botched coup, their relative silence over Aleppo raised eyebrows among its proxies and supporters in the region.
There have been even rumors that Turkey struck a deal with Russia that involves the abandonment of Aleppo in exchange for a free hand in eastern Syria.

The reality is that, while Turkey is still committed to the rebel groups that it supports in Aleppo and Idlib, Russia has pined after Turkey’s military involvement inside the country. Turkey has hardly any countermeasure other than to seek a diplomatic understanding with Russia to deescalate the situation in Aleppo.
The presence of both countries in the north, as I argued in August, has changed the state of play in that region. Russia knows that Turkey prefers to avoid confrontation because Russia can make Turkey’s task against the Islamic State and the YPG significantly harder.

For example, the regime’s forces are only six miles away from the Islamic State stronghold of al-Bab, much closer than the rebels some 20 miles away. Al-Bab is a key town for the YPG, which seeks to use it to link its cantons east of the Euphrates with other areas of control in the northwest via Manbij, which it helped liberate in August, an event that triggered the Turkish intervention. If the rebels take al-Bab, they will face the YPG west of the town and the regime to its south.

Turkey finds itself compelled to strike a balance between committing to the welfare of its proxies in Aleppo and Idlib and avoiding a confrontation with Russia. The delicate balance is likely to remain for the foreseeable future, and thus Turkey has no moves other than to seek deescalation diplomatically.

At the same time, Turkey has to preserve the strength of allied groups in the north. Rebel allies are an important source of influence in future Syria regardless of how the situation develops and, more importantly, they remain a vital piece for Turkey’s chess game in the event that Russia changes its calculations in northern Syria. Russia too will continue to maintain links with the YPG even as it seeks to check their ambitions.

America Grasping at Straws

The picture for the Syrian rebels in the north seems bleaker if the Turkish dilemma is viewed alongside the weakened American hand in the same region, the second development in recent weeks. An indication of how the situation has devolved is that despite the Russian onslaught on Aleppo over the past few weeks, both Washington and Ankara have been proven powerless.

Threats by Washington to sever diplomatic channels with Russia fell on deaf ears in Moscow. On Monday, the United States finally announced certain lines of communication with Russia would be suspended, after the ceasefire agreement the two countries reached last month failed to take hold. Earlier, even as the Syrian regime declared the end of the ceasefire, Washington desperately insisted the deal was still on. Secretary of State John Kerry had dismissed the remarks from Damascus and said the agreement was reached with Moscow, not the regime.

Despite attempts by Washington to persuade the Russians to comply with the terms, including the delivery of aid and cessation of air raids against opposition areas, no progress was made. Tension reached a high point when Russia reportedly struck an aid convoy, and the U.S. mistakenly targeted dozens of regime soldiers in the city of Deir Ezzor. The U.S. still hopes to revive the ceasefire deal, which involves a joint campaign to strike Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda offshoot.

On Wednesday, the Washington Post reported that the idea of strikes against the Syrian regime was back on the table on Wednesday, with more officials showing support for the kinetic effort to prevent the fall of Aleppo. On the same day, Turkey and Russia also discussed the prospect of deescalation in a telephone conversation between the presidents of the two countries, and further discussions are expected when the two presidents meet on the sidelines of the World Energy Congress in Istanbul next week.

Notwithstanding discussions of a military course, the Obama administration’s ultimate objective is still to revive the deal with Moscow.

Russia, meanwhile, knows the constraints and priorities of the two rivals in northern Syria. For Turkey, the priority is to prevent the PYD from connecting its cantons in the north and to fight the Islamic State. The regime factors later in Turkey’s calculations today. Crucially, Turkey also finds itself in a new reality where it has to maintain a level of calm with Russia, especially as the two countries work to improve their bilateral relations.

For the United States, the priorities continue to be the Islamic State and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. Russia’s operations are concentrated in the north, where the front’s influence is mostly concentrated. This means that if the U.S. wants to fight Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, it has to reach a deeper understanding with Russia than the existing deconfliction procedures that exist in eastern and northeastern Syria, where the regime has little to no presence.

Russia finds itself in an optimal position of leverage against the only two countries that can make a substantive difference for the rebels in northern Syria. Both the United States and Turkey have clear priorities that do not involve the regime and their hands are tied by the need to maintain a certain balance with Russia. This new reality opens new possibilities for the Russian involvement in Syria unconceivable some months ago.

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/08/2016 - 2:49am

Flashback:

April, when the admin last pretended it had a Plan B: worked it out with allies, White House vetoed.
http://on.wsj.com/25YBq4t 

Outlaw 09

Sat, 10/08/2016 - 2:05am

The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef
Mahmoud Al Muhammad killed today in Daraa after responding to bombing of civilians leaving Friday prayers.

IT is great that Kerry uses the words "war crimes" in the same sentence as Russia BUT as long as the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH is totally unwilling to enforce those words...in the end they are just empty words.....

BUT hey that is normal for this WH.....

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/07/2016 - 1:53pm

Overheard at the Pentagon: "The 'Yes We Can' crowd has become the 'But we won't 'cause its hard,'" Syria

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/07/2016 - 1:39pm

NOTICE the unique Kerry blackmail signature moves in their pressuring the anti Assad opposition and HNC to basically surrender to the Russian demands contained in Geneva 2 and then this latest Geneva 3 ceasefire....NO different than the US blackmail attempt ongoing now with Ukraine.....

Biden, Kerry and Nuland are all attempting to blackmail Ukraine into accepting a so called "Russian proposal" for Minsk 2....basically telling Ukraine to surrender to all Russian demands "IN ODER TO GET A LEGACY WIN FOR OBAMA" before the elections ALL under the guise of making it easy for the incoming US President....

Ukraine is resisting as they know they cannot get the entire Ukrainian civil society to buy in after TWO full years of Russian instigated war and invasion of eastern Ukraine.....especially after 176 UAF members have been killed this year by Russian mercenaries, complete factories have been stolen and natural raw resources (coal, oil, gas)also stolen from Ukraine......

BUT THE US just keeps on trying to blackmail them......

.@LIGAnet story on Kyiv under DC pressure over Minsk deal coincides with MP @mefimus post. He doesn't name DC though
https://www.facebook.com/Mustafanayy...7866632089766#

DC wants Kyiv to go ahead with elex in occupied Donbas, rewrite Const right after disengagement. No mention of return over border control

If Ukraine succumbs to holding, or rather watching elections in now-occupied-by-Russia Donbass, they will be held at the barrel of a gun.

DC pushes Kyiv to make major concessions to Russia: to amend Minsk deals in order to parade "solution" before elex

CAN any SWJ reader/commenter explain to all of us just WHY the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH appears to be working for Putin and trying to force Ukraine into a unilateral non reciprocal move that Russia does not have to do anything on....ALL actions must come from Ukraine WHICH was invaded by Russia.....

So Obama does the dirty work for Putin these days is all one can assume.....

REMEMBER
2014....Obama...."we will judge Putin on his actions not his words.....

2014-2016....Russia has not fulfilled a single point of the 11 points contained in Minsk 1 and 2 and still is actively attacking Ukraine....

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/07/2016 - 12:35pm

Putin’s Activation of ‘Iskander-M’ Ballistic Missile Is a Message to Obama

The KGB officer in the Kremlin seeks one last, grand strategic humiliation for our president before he leaves office

By John R. Schindler • 10/07/16 11:00am

http://observer.com/2016/10/putins-a...sage-to-obama/

BUT WAIT.......

Russia’s Nuclear Surge: Putin Adding Nukes While Obama Cuts
http://thebea.st/2cYkMdS

Russia has never seen such a weak willed US President so it is simply running the table before he leaves setting the next President into a deep hole to climb out of .....

Russia moving nuclear-capable missiles into Kaliningrad, says Estonia

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/07/russia-moving-nuclear-capa… 

 

Outlaw 09

Fri, 10/07/2016 - 7:32am

BREAKING
#Talbisah now!
First victims coming in after multiple air strikes on the city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6k6SIHHPu_8#

BreakingNews
Heavy #AssadPutin air strikes on opposition-held towns in #Idlib and #Homs province now.

Seven years after europe awarded Obama a Nobel for not being George Bush, some regret has set in.
http://on.wsj.com/2cYXVyP#
v @SohrabAhmari