Small Wars Journal

04/27/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Tue, 04/27/2021 - 9:45am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Agenda at the coming ROK-US summit

2. Sanctions and food shortages raise fears of North Korean famine

3. Biden Is Reviewing US Policy in North Korea. The Brutal Sanctions Must End.

4. U.S. must be ready to make concessions to N. Korea to advance denuclearization: lawmaker

5. Moon needs to show Biden what is possible to denuclearize N. Korea: Andy Kim

6. Unification minister urges N. Korea to implement peace agreements on summit anniversary

7. Moon says time approaching for resuming dialogue with North Korea

8. South Korea's 'anti-leaflet law' a sign of alarming 'democratic decay,' Chris Smith warns

9. My close encounters with North Korea: Drifting perilously close to shore and Kim's 'night on the town'

10. Falling in Love Again: U.S.-North Korean Relations and the Biden Administration

11. Getting North Korea Back to the Table

12. South Korean POW Who Was Held in North

13. North Korea’s Economy Seen Barely Growing as Pandemic Pain Lasts

14. Nonconformist Youn Yuh-jung: S. Korea's First Oscar-winning Actress

 

1. Agenda at the coming ROK-US summit

donga.com · April 27, 2021

Interesting list of issues desired by the Korean public.

 

2. Sanctions and food shortages raise fears of North Korean famine

The Telegraph · by Russell Lynch,

I will continue to beat this horse. It is not sanctions that are causing the suffering. It is the deliberate policy decisions made by Kim Jong-un.

 

3. Biden Is Reviewing US Policy in North Korea. The Brutal Sanctions Must End.

truthout.org · by Simone Chun · April 26, 2021

No. It is the brutal dictatorship that must end. The sanctions are not brutal. Kim Jong-un could solve these problems if he chose to prioritize the welfare of the Korean people in the north over the nuclear and missile program, the military, and the regime elite.

 

4. U.S. must be ready to make concessions to N. Korea to advance denuclearization: lawmaker

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 27, 2021

With all due respect to Rep Kim: Concessions relief = appeasement. Concessions relief means success for Kim Jong-un's blackmail diplomacy, long con, and political warfare strategy. It means Kim Jong-un will simply double down on his strategy and tactics because he will assess they work.

 

5. Moon needs to show Biden what is possible to denuclearize N. Korea: Andy Kim

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 27, 2021

Rep. Kim seems to be making the same strategic assumptions that the Moon administration is making, namely, that Kim Jong-un shares President Moon's vision of a peace agenda. This fails to understand the true nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime which includes as the priority, the domination for the Korean peninsula under northern control to ensure the survival of the Kim family regime. 

 

6. Unification minister urges N. Korea to implement peace agreements on summit anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 27, 2021

This is simply another testament to the fact the Kim family regime has never executed any agreements in good faith.

 

7. Moon says time approaching for resuming dialogue with North Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 27, 2021

Why does President Moon put the onus on us? We have been willing to talk for the past three years and I am positive the new Biden Administration Korea policy will call for dialogue. It is Kim Jong-un who refuses to negotiate and instead continue his blackmail diplomacy to increase tensions, make threats, and conduct provocations to try to gain political and economic concessions.

 

8. South Korea's 'anti-leaflet law' a sign of alarming 'democratic decay,' Chris Smith warns

christianpost.com · by Emily Wood · April 26, 2021

Excerpt: "Co-chair of the Human Rights Commission, Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., noted that South Korea's commitment to human rights "stands in stark contrast to the Kim family’s brutal dictatorship to the North in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Nevertheless, surveying the state of political and civil rights in the Republic of Korea, I must say that I am alarmed by … ‘South Korea’s democratic decay.’"

 

9. My close encounters with North Korea: Drifting perilously close to shore and Kim's 'night on the town'

9news.com.au · by Michael Smith

Some interesting anecdotes.

 

10. Falling in Love Again: U.S.-North Korean Relations and the Biden Administration

The National Interest · by William L. d’Ambruoso · April 26, 2021

Does international relations theory explain north Korea and the Kim family regime and can it guide us to securing our interests on the Korean peninsula?

Can trust be established among the players in Northeast Asia?

Conclusion: “Multiple foreign policy schools point in the same direction: We can live with a nuclear North Korea, possibly with higher levels of cooperation than before. It’s far too early to judge the Biden team’s approach, but to date, the administration is not showing very much creativity. Biden himself has refused to meet with Kim and has stipulated that any talks must be about denuclearization. Biden may be interested in a breakthrough, but it is difficult to see how this approach will produce one. Settling for a rerun of something akin to Obama’s strategic patience policy will put relations somewhere between the long U.S.-Cuba-style impasse and war. U.S. policymakers should strive for better.

If North Korea tests one of its missiles capable of reaching the U.S. homeland soon, critics will reiterate their fears that North Korea will be able to strike out in anger because now the United States will not be willing to risk San Francisco to protect Seoul. But the United States has faced this problem already, and on worse terms. From North Korea’s perspective, it makes no sense to attack more powerful neighbors in the faint hope that an even mightier foe will stand aside. As with the Soviet Union before it, North Korea will continue to have a strong interest in keeping the peace.

Near the end of the Cold War, Jervis wrote of U.S. nuclear policy, “Whether we like it or not, the common defense now extends to adversaries as well as to allies.” Nuclear weapons can sometimes be the tie that binds, and the United States must now be invested in the sanity, restraint, and fundamental comfort of Kim’s regime. In the long run, overlapping interests between North Korea and its current adversaries may grow, and denuclearization may follow or coincide. In the meantime, however, the United States should begin building trust on the thin slice of mutual concern in avoiding catastrophe. It’s a start.

 

11. Getting North Korea Back to the Table

democracyjournal.org ·Duyeon Kim · April 26, 2021

Some very useful recommendations from Duyeon Kim. Many are very sound and logical. The fourth one; however, should cause us to ask whether it is realistic given the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. But I do hope many of these are incorporated into the Biden Administration's Korea policy.

 

Recommendations:

Appoint an experienced envoy with clout who is empowered, has the President and secretary of state’s ear, and is in charge of negotiations and briefings. 

 

Recognize that everything is a negotiation that will take months and years

 

Be more deliberate, less reactive, and regularly test assumptions and cognitive biases. Be open to bold creative methods, surprises, and tactical adjustments. 

 

Seek to negotiate a comprehensive denuclearization-peace roadmap, or an initial deal first that explicitly agrees on end goals, based on an action-for-action incentive system.

 

Engage in proportionate bargains and avoid giving up too much too soon.

 

Regularly consult with allies and partners, and factor in implications for the region.

 

Establish a gray-zone strategy and impose penalties on all bad behavior. 

 

Prepare for crisis scenarios and black swans.

 

12. South Korean POW Who Was Held in North

East Asia Research

A short summary with some key points that are very interesting. It is sad to think that there may still be prisoners in the north suffering since the Korean War.

 

13. North Korea’s Economy Seen Barely Growing as Pandemic Pain Lasts

Bloomberg · by Sam Kim · April 26, 2021

Kim's policy decisions stymie growth.

 

14. Nonconformist Youn Yuh-jung: S. Korea's First Oscar-winning Actress

Barron's · by Claire LEE

Quite an impressive lady with an unique story of someone who beat the odds.

 

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Categories: News