News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. FDD | Opening of Eighth Party Congress Shows Kim Jong Un Stays True to His Roots
2. N.K. leader reviews inter-Korean ties, vows to 'comprehensively' expand external relations
3. KIM JONG-GUN Kim Jong-un shows off new white military uniform
4. Kim vows to boost North Korea's defence capabilities
5. Is North Korea's dictator losing his touch?
6. North Korean hackers launch RokRat Trojan in campaigns against the South
7. South Korea's Moon vows push for 'denuclearization of Korean Peninsula'
8. Poll: Most South Koreans Are Wary of China
9. S. Korean court orders Tokyo to pay damages to wartime sex slavery victims in landmark ruling
10. Kim Jong Un vows to expand foreign relations ahead of Biden era
11. DPRK leader vows to advance social construction, external relations at party congress - Xinhua
12. S. Korea ships another 2 million coronavirus masks to Korean War vets
13. State security agency arrests key figures involved in North Korea's nuclear and missile development
14. Kim Jong-un's Party Congress Speech Sends Rumor Mill Spinning
15. Is North Korea Jamming Radio Signals?
16. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Continues Report on Work of 7th Central Committee of WPK Third-day Sitting of Eighth Congress of WPK Held
1. FDD | Opening of Eighth Party Congress Shows Kim Jong Un Stays True to His Roots
fdd.org · by David Maxwell and Mathew Ha · January 7, 2021
From my colleague, Mathew Ha and me.
2. N.K. leader reviews inter-Korean ties, vows to 'comprehensively' expand external relations
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 8, 2021
This is a very important statement though it is vague enough that we should not overreact as some might and think this may be an indication of some kind of breakthrough. Kim may be continuing to execute his political warfare strategy and is setting the conditions to either extract concessions and resources from the South or drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance (or at least test it). Or it could be intended to accomplish both objectives.
But we will still have to wait until the end of the Congress and the release of the final statements.
3. KIM JONG-GUN Kim Jong-un shows off new white military uniform
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13679634/kim-jong-un-military-uniform-new-portrait/ - by Jon Lockett – 7 Jan 2021
The party constructed one helluva an "I love me wall." But since Kim has never served a single day of his life in the military, can we charge him with north Korean "stolen valor" for wearing a military uniform and impersonating a military officer? Maybe that can be one of the charges when the truth and reconciliation meets during the unification process (note my sarcasm).
4. Kim vows to boost North Korea's defence capabilities
The military is the most important institution for Kim, the regime, and the party. Kim will prioritize the military ahead of the welfare of the people because it is key to regime survival. This is an indication that helps provide answers to the two key questions:
1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
5. Is North Korea's dictator losing his touch?
The Economist – 9 January 2021
I concur with Andrei (though there are estimates that as many as 3 million people died from the effects of the famine) - the conditions now could be far worse than during the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996. That said I am not predicting imminent regime collapse, but I will say that one of the major contributing factors to preventing collapse was the election of Kim Dae Jung and then 10 years of the Sunshine Policy and the Peace and Prosperity Policy that provided billions of dollars to the regime. The question is whether the regime can extort a similar level of resources this time. Again, I am not predicting collapse. But I will predict that if there is collapse it will be catastrophic for the South, the alliance, and the region.
Excerpts:
Mr Lankov reckons the regime faces its greatest test since a famine more than 20 years ago brought on by the incompetence of Mr Kim's late father and grandfather. The regime survived that test despite the deaths of more than 500,000 North Koreans. Today, though, the people know much more about the outside world. They have grown less deferential to authority. And they are used to coping without the state: they might react angrily to the reimposition of central control.
That is not to say that the Kim dynasty is on the brink of collapse. But even small disturbances may be seen, both at home and abroad, as a sign of unravelling. The regime's rituals project Mr Kim-morbidly obese, smoking heavily and cosseted in his palaces-as the irreproachable bearer of a heavenly mandate. It is a message he may soon need to reinforce.
6. North Korean hackers launch RokRat Trojan in campaigns against the South
ZDNet · by Charlie Osborne
Beware of Kim's all purpose sword.
7. South Korea's Moon vows push for 'denuclearization of Korean Peninsula'
upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim
This statement would seem to be somewhat in line with President-elect Biden's October 30th Yonhap Oped (except President Moon left out unification). https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201030000500325
"...Seoul is ready to commit time and effort to realize the "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, permanent peace, and the development of inter-Korean relations," Donga Ilbo reported."
8. Poll: Most South Koreans Are Wary of China
The National Interest · by Timothy S. Rich · January 7, 2021
A positive sign. A good portion of both Americans and Koreans in the South are very supportive of the ROK/US alliance.
9. S. Korean court orders Tokyo to pay damages to wartime sex slavery victims in landmark ruling
en.yna.co.kr · by 우재연 · January 8, 2021
One step forward and two or three steps backward.
10. Kim Jong Un vows to expand foreign relations ahead of Biden era
Stars and Stripes – by Jeong-Ho Lee – 8 January 2021
Again, we should not overreact to this. My assessment is that he is continuing his political warfare strategy. If he does desire to expand foreign relations it is likely part of a strategy to gain political and economic concessions. We should be wary.
That said this is also an opportunity to observe Kim's actions. We can give him an opportunity to demonstrate sincerity and test to see if he wants to make substantive changes to how it conducts its foreign affairs.
However, there is one thing we should also not forget that the nature of the Kim family regime will likely never change. Don't get fooled again.
11. DPRK leader vows to advance social construction, external relations at party congress - Xinhua
Interpretation of the KWP's 8th Party Congress from China.
An interesting phrase: "...playing to the full advantage of the country's social system..."
Doubling down??? Excerpt: "Kim and the congress attendees also doubled down on the Party's general stance to comprehensively expand and forge external relations."
12. S. Korea ships another 2 million coronavirus masks to Korean War vets
Stars and Stripes – by Matthew Keeler – 7 January 2021
13. State security agency arrests key figures involved in North Korea's nuclear and missile development
dailynk.com – by Jeong Tae Joo - January 8, 2021
If accurate this is very significant. Nuclear scientists and technicians are among the most respected and protected within north Korea. But despite the priority for developing nuclear weapons if they broke the law for watching foreign media then we can say that ideological control is more important that even nuclear weapons development.
Who does Kim fear more: the US or the Korea people in the north? It is the Korean people armed with information.
So how do we end the north Korean nuclear programs? Target all nuclear scientists with information and let them be compromised and arrested and then that will cause the nuclear program to collapse (note my comments are only half sarcastic - it will not collapse the program but information and influence operations can have effects).
14. Kim Jong-un's Party Congress Speech Sends Rumor Mill Spinning
english.chosun.com – 7 January 2021
How many "Kimologists" (cousins to Kremlinologists) do we have and how are they assessing the look of Kim Jong-un?
15. Is North Korea Jamming Radio Signals?
The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · January 7, 2021
Yes they are. But as noted electricity is a problem.
Excerpt: "Jamming Watch reported back in 2008 that "since it is illegal for North Koreans to listen to anything other than state-run radio, all legal radio receivers are sold fixed so they can play only channels approved by the government. The report also said that due to electricity shortages "radio jamming activities are not always consistent and are sometimes interrupted by power failures."
We know they try to jam Radio Free Asia and Voice of America as well. But our transmitters can over power their jammers and it takes more power (and electricity) to try to jam our transmitters.
As an aside I will be participating in Voice of America's weekly Washington Talk this morning. The primary target audience is the elite in Pyongyang. Soctt Snyder and I will be discussing the 8th Party Congress with Kim Yong Gyo. This is one of the very important initiatives of VOA.
16. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Continues Report on Work of 7th Central Committee of WPK Third-day Sitting of Eighth Congress of WPK Held
The members are excited by the impassioned report from KJU.
Excerpt: "The impassioned report of the Supreme Leader of our Party, state and armed forces, which greatly inspires the entire Party and all the people to the struggle for achieving a new victory of the next stage, increasingly excites the participants in the congress and redoubles their revolutionary enthusiasm and spirit to surely implement the important tasks facing the Party and the revolution."
"As to the members of a Democracy, they are the best sort of people in the world; but then they are but a puny sort of gentry, as to strength, put them all together; and apt to be a little defective in point of understanding."
- Jeremy Benthem
"As I would not be a slave, so I would not be a master. This expresses my idea of democracy. Whatever differs from this, to the extent of the difference, is no democracy."
- Abraham Lincoln
"Every word has consequences. Every silence, too."
- Jean Paul Satre