Small Wars Journal

Putin, Erdogan To Meet In Moscow In Bid To Ease Syria Tensions

Thu, 03/05/2020 - 12:39am

Putin, Erdogan To Meet In Moscow In Bid To Ease Syria Tensions

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet in Moscow as they seek to ease tensions over a flare-up in violence in Syria that threatens to engulf their nations into direct armed conflict.

Erdogan said he is looking to persuade Putin to agree to a quick cease-fire in Syria’s Idlib Province when the two leaders meet in the Russian capital on March 5.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Russia has been racing to bolster its presence in Syria before the talks, citing flight data and shipping movements in the region.

Tensions have flared in Idlib in recent weeks as Turkey launched an offensive against the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Russia.

On February 27, Ankara reported the killing of 34 Turkish soldiers in an air strike blamed on Syria. That led to retaliation and, on March 1, Turkey killed 19 Syrian soldiers in drone strikes and shot down two government warplanes.

Turkey and Russia -- which back opposing sides in the conflict -- have avoided direct confrontation so far, but the latest incidents have led many observers to express concerns that NATO member Turkey and Russia could become embroiled in armed conflict.

Erdogan last week demanded that Europe support Turkish efforts in Syria while he prompted a new immigrant crisis by opening Turkey's border with Greece to refugees and migrants.

Ahead of the talks in Moscow, Erdogan said on March 4 that he hopes “there will be a cease-fire swiftly established" in Idlib.

Ankara wants Assad's forces -- which have launched an assault on Idlib, the last rebel stronghold in Syria – to pull back behind lines agreed under a 2018 deal brokered with Moscow.

But the talks with Putin will not be easy. Erdogan in late February told Putin that Russia should stand aside in Syria to let Turkey deal with Syrian government forces alone.

But Moscow, which has backed Assad with crucial air support in the past five years, has said the Syrian government should be able to assert full control over the country, which has been torn by civil war since 2011.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the two leaders will discuss the crisis and potential "joint measures" to defuse it.

Experts say Putin is not looking for an armed fight with Turkey but that it also is unlikely to back down.

"Victory in Syria has become a matter of prestige for Russia -- and for Putin personally," Yury Barmin, a Middle East analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council, told AFP.

Separately, Reuters said an analysis of flight data and its correspondents' monitoring of shipping in the Bosphorus Strait in northwestern Turkey indicate that Russia started to increase naval and airborne deliveries to Syria on February 28 – a day the Turkish soldiers were killed in the Idlib air strike.

Reuters said the Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, Washington has expressed strong support for Turkey in the latest flare-up.

Following the February attack on Turkish soldiers, the United States said that "we stand by our NATO ally Turkey" and demanded that Syria and Russia end their "despicable" offensive in Idlib.

"We are looking at options on how we can best support Turkey in this crisis," a State Department spokeswoman said at the time.