Small Wars Journal

From Mosul to Raqqa? A Complex, Risky Battle Against the Islamic State

Wed, 10/19/2016 - 8:29am

From Mosul to Raqqa? A Complex, Risky Battle Against the Islamic State  - Associated Press

Simultaneous attacks on the Islamic State-held cities of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa, the de facto capital of the militant group's self-proclaimed caliphate across the border in Syria, would make military sense: such assaults would make it harder for the extremists to move reinforcements and deny them a safe haven.

When preparing for the Mosul operations this summer, U.S. officials said a push against IS in Raqqa could be almost simultaneous, putting additional pressure on the group by stretching its ability to defend two strongholds at once.

But while the long-awaited Mosul offensive began earlier this week, there's no sign of an imminent campaign against Raqqa.

Perhaps that's because Syria is proving to be a more daunting terrain than Iraq. Going after IS-held Raqqa would mean moving deeper into an explosive mix of regional and international rivalries, including a proxy war that has pitted the United States against Russia and its allies.

The fight against IS in northeastern Syria also underlines a U.S. reliance on its one effective partner there — Syria's Kurds. But such an alliance for a Raqqa campaign threatens to ignite a new conflict, with another U.S. partner, NATO member Turkey, and its allied Syrian rebels…

Read on.