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Kilcullen on COIN "Persistent-Presence" vs. "Repetitive Raiding"

... Review of Dave Kilcullen's The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a ... leaders banned even the word "insurgency," though busily losing to one. Scholars, warriors, and agitators, Dave and Bill laid the ...

Blog post - May 7 2010 - 11:51am - 49 comments - 0 attachments

Losing Kilcullen

... Losing Kilcullen - Greg Grant, DoD Buzz Forget the Vietnam analogies. ...

Blog post - Nov 13 2009 - 10:57am - 5 comments - 0 attachments

Design Theory and the Military’s Understanding of Our Complex World

... tool (the why of the reasons causing the conflict) that Kilcullen built in his early writings and then took the OODA model and retailored it to focus on the Robb/Kilcullen points instead of what Boyd wrote for fighter pilots? Then the ... with throwing out the MDMP bathwater for fear of losing the baby- but the baby does remain in a novel and non-linear asymmetric ...

Journal Article - Aug 7 2011 - 12:30pm - 83 comments

COIN Metrics: What Not to Measure

... Kilcullen (I): Here's What Not to Measure in a COIN Campaign - Tom Ricks at ... statistics aren't telling you that you are winning or losing, but they are telling you something about what is going on in the area. ...

Blog post - Feb 8 2010 - 2:36pm - 79 comments - 0 attachments

Psychology of Participation in Insurgency

... susceptible to recruitment by insurgents).  David Kilcullen describes this process in Afghanistan. [3]   Local leaders see ... the personal experience of the potential recruit such as losing access to education or a job, or having a friend or family member killed ...

Journal Article - Jan 27 2012 - 5:53am - 44 comments

The COIN Approach to Mexican Drug Cartels: Square Peg in a Round Hole

... .  (emphasis in the original.) [20] David Kilcullen, the author of the “Three Pillars” approach to COIN, ... short term requirements for security at the risk of losing their support for good - and a government and its armed forces that were ...

Journal Article - Dec 27 2011 - 6:10am - 42 comments

Lost in Translation: The American Way of War

... of how Americans fight as is conventional war.  David Kilcullen argues that since 1816, 83 percent of conflicts fall under ... Willbanks, James H.  “Winning the Battle, Losing the War,” New York Times , March 5, 2008 ... [23] James H. Willbanks, “Winning the Battle, Losing the War,” New York Times , March 5, 2008, ...

Journal Article - Nov 17 2011 - 9:17am - 9 comments

Thinking Critically about COIN and Creatively about Strategy and War

... and if we had just deepened or actually did research into Kilcullen's conflict ecosystem one would have had then the analysis tool to use ... One historical point: winning breeds arrogance while losing typically generates learned lessons, hence the validity of Galula's ...

Journal Article - Dec 14 2010 - 8:37pm - 83 comments

The Targeting Process: D3A and F3EAD

... practicing "tactical patience" by a BCT Cmdr when he is losing personnel. The second thing is that the failure to use "tactical ... handle on the WHY piece---they have tended to forgot what Kilcullen wrote in 2004/2005 about insurgencies. Begs the question was ...

Journal Article - Jul 16 2011 - 8:50am - 57 comments

The Ugly Truth: Insurgencies are Brutal

... currently this following comment seems to indicate we are losing rather badly against. Just a side note--not even the Human Terrain ... combat them. Well put my friend ---well put. Kilcullen's 2004 article on "conflict ecosystem" applies as effectively to ...

Journal Article - Aug 15 2010 - 7:17am - 72 comments