AFRICA

Red Cross Chief Says No Darfur Testimony - AP.  The International Red Cross would never testify in a Darfur war crimes trial because of the group's long-standing pledge of neutrality, its president said Friday.  The International Committee of the Red Cross has the largest presence of any aid group in Darfur, but Jakob Kellenberger said he would never make public the observations of its nearly 2,000 Sudanese and international staff working in the country.  The issue is a sensitive one for the ICRC, which is frequently criticized for refusing to go public with its denunciations of atrocities, most notably during the Holocaust. In 1997, the ICRC admitted a "moral failure" in keeping silent about the Nazi genocide of Jews during World War II, even though it had documented mass deportations and killings.

Sudan's Bashir Defends Record in Darfur - Reuters.  Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir defended his handling of the Darfur crisis and criticized Western media for exaggerating the death toll in a video conference with worshippers at a Detroit mosque on Friday.  Bashir acknowledged Sudan was facing a "problem" in Darfur, but placed the blame squarely on rebel groups which did not sign on to a peace agreement concluded in Abuja, Nigeria in May 2006.  Experts say an estimated 200,000 people have been killed and 2.5 million driven from their homes in Darfur since 2003.

Anger Mounts in Zimbabwe As Crisis Nears - AP.  Zimbabwe is reaching the end game, witnessing the last, desperate throes of a regime that has destroyed one of Africa's few successful economies, plunged millions of people into grinding poverty and led to the deaths of tens of thousands from malnutrition and lack of medical care.  It may not happen Saturday, when President Robert Mugabe celebrates his 83rd birthday with cake and champagne at a $1.2 million party while hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans struggle to survive on bread and water.  But years of abuse and neglect are culminating in untenable crises.

Gunmen Kill Lebanese Man in Nigeria - AP.  Gunmen opened fire Friday on a vehicle carrying foreign workers in Nigeria's unruly oil-producing south, killing a Lebanese man, while assailants on speedboats kidnapped two Italians in a separate incident.  Five gunmen shot at the car carrying two Lebanese and a Nigerian as it neared the airport in the main oil center of Port Harcourt. One of the Lebanese men died instantly, while the other and the Nigerian driver were wounded, Rivers State police spokeswoman Irejua Barasua said.  Crime, armed militancy and attacks on foreign workers are on the rise across the increasingly lawless Niger Delta region, where all Nigeria's crude oil is pumped.

Guinea MPs Terminate Martial Law - BBC.  The parliament of Guinea has voted unanimously not to extend the state of emergency declared 11 days ago.  President Lansana Conte had asked parliament to renew martial law until a general strike is called off.  President Conte imposed the emergency following weeks of violent street protests against his leadership.  Trade unions have welcomed the vote but said they intend to continue their crippling general strike until a new prime minister is found.  The martial law measures had imposed a curfew and gave the military sweeping powers to search and arrest.  It now expires at midnight local time (GMT) on Friday.

AMERICAS

North American Leaders Discuss Security - AP.  Promoting prosperity topped the agenda at a gathering of U.S., Canadian and Mexican Cabinet leaders Friday, but immigration and the threat of terrorism also were key topics at the gathering.  Nine foreign and security ministers from the North American nations met in Ottawa, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.  The Security and Prosperity Partnership talks were a lead-up to a meeting of the countries' leaders this August in Canada.

Federal Police to Permanently Guard Acapulco Hotels - Reuters.  Mexico - Mexican federal police will patrol the hotel zone of Acapulco day and night to prevent an outbreak of drug gang violence from affecting tourism, a senior police official said on Friday.  Acapulco, a former playground for Hollywood stars that has long been in decline, is one of the main battlefields in a war between Mexico's two main drug cartels.  Two thousand people were killed nationwide last year, including two policemen who were decapitated, their heads displayed outside a government building in Acapulco.

Chávez Ends Busy Week Aiding Venezuela’s Latin Neighbors - NY Times.  Venezuela - President Hugo Chávez met here on Friday with President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua to discuss an array of Venezuelan assistance programs, capping an unusually frenetic week for this country’s efforts to enhance its political and economic influence in parts of Latin America.  At the heart of many of the agreements reached this week -- with Nicaragua, Ecuador and Argentina -- is Venezuela’s use of its windfall from historically high oil prices, and sometimes its own reserves and exports of oil, to lift its regional profile.

Cali Drug Cartel's Betrayer Tells His Story - LA Times.  The official end of the notorious Cali cocaine cartel came late last year here with little more commotion than the rap of a judge's gavel.  The Colombian drug lords Miguel Rodriguez Orejuela, 63, and Gilberto Rodriguez Orejuela, 67, entered guilty pleas and were ushered off to federal prison for the next 30 years -- no Miami Vice-like dramatics, no bodies riddled with gunfire in the manner of Medellin rival Pablo Escobar.  But behind the bloodless fall of the ruthless Orejuela brothers and collapse of their $7-billion-a-year empire lies a little-known story of daring and betrayal.

Colombian Rebels Offer Prisoner Swap - AP.  rebels holding a former presidential candidate hostage said Friday they were still willing to strike a deal for her release, five years to the day after her capture.  In a statement, Ivan Marquez, a member of the supreme command of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, of FARC, also dismissed recent speculation that Ingrid Betancourt was being held outside of Colombia.  "The liberation of Ingrid Betancourt and all the prisoners held by both sides could already have been part of history, if (President Alvaro Uribe) had agreed to demilitarize the municipalities of Florida and Pradera," Marquez said in the statement.  He referred to a long-standing demand by the rebels for the government to withdraw all security forces from two remote towns in southwest Colombia, a guerrilla stronghold.

Five Years On, Colombian Symbol of Kidnap Nightmare - Reuters.  Five years after she was kidnapped by guerrillas, former Colombian presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt has become an international symbol of the suffering of hostages still held in rebel camps.  Photographs and posters of the dual French-Colombian national have appeared in both countries as politicians in Bogota and Paris push for her release by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC.  Violence from Colombia's 40-year conflict has ebbed during President Alvaro Uribe's U.S.-backed security crackdown but families of kidnap victims like Betancourt fear his hard-line policies leave little hope their relatives will be freed.

Camera Films Botched Murders in Colombia - AP.  It was like a macabre twist in a film noir: Confused hit men on the lookout for two men in a white sedan gun down the wrong people. Then they spot their intended targets, in the same traffic jam 20 yards away. And kill them, too. And it was all caught on a traffic camera.  It happened midday Thursday in the southwestern city of Cali.  "The mode of killing has all the hallmarks of drug-related assassination and the fact that one of the victims in the second car had survived an assassination attempt three days earlier," said Gen. Luis Moore, commander of the Cali metropolitan police.

Paraguay City Flights Lawless Image - AP.  This city on the border where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay meet has for years battled a reputation as a trading post for weapons, drugs, pirated music and counterfeit designer brands.  After the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States, the Triple Border region, home to more than 20,000 Arabs, also came under scrutiny but no one has ever found evidence of ties to terrorism. 

ASIA-PACIFIC

White House Encouraged by North Korean Invitation to Nuclear Inspectors - VOA.  The White House says a North Korean invitation to the head of the U.N. nuclear agency is a positive sign that Pyongyang is moving forward on last week's deal to end its nuclear weapons program.  Chief U.N. nuclear inspector Mohamed ElBaradei says North Korea has invited him to visit the country in the next few weeks to work out the details of a multinational agreement aimed at ending its nuclear weapons program.

IAEA Chief: North Korea Soliciting Talks - AP.  North Korea on Friday asked the chief U.N. atomic inspector to visit four years after expelling his experts and dropping out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty -- an encouraging sign the reclusive regime is serious about dismantling its weapons program.  Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, offered few details about his upcoming trip, which other agency officials said would likely occur in the second week of March.

U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head to Visit North Korea - Reuters.  The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog will meet the North Korean government next month to discuss the shutdown of its nuclear program and bring the secretive communist state back under U.N. supervision.  International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei said he had received an invitation from Pyongyang on Friday, after a deal last week to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear site and allow U.N. inspectors into the country.

N. Korea Nuclear Envoy to Visit U.S. - AP.  South Korea - North Korea's chief nuclear negotiator plans to visit the United States within days for follow-up talks on a recent disarmament deal, South Korean news reports said Saturday.  The North's Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan is expected to arrive in San Francisco on Thursday en route to New York for meetings with his U.S. counterpart, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported, citing multiple unidentified individuals in the U.S.

S. Korean Negotiator Outlines Plans for Disabling Pyongyang's Nuclear Programs - VOA.  A senior South Korean official says that North Korea appears to at least have the beginnings of a uranium-based nuclear weapons program. Seoul's top negotiator in talks on ending Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions also says he thinks the North is committed to dismantling its nuclear facilities.  Chun Yung-woo, Seoul's main envoy to the six-party nuclear talks with North Korea, said Friday that Pyongyang must explain its purchases that are consistent with a uranium-based weapons program.  But North Korea has never publicly admitted to having a highly enriched uranium, or HEU program, and until Friday, South Korea has avoided taking an explicit stand on whether it exists.

U.S. Cedes Control of S. Korea Army - BBC.  The U.S. and South Korea have reached a deal to hand full control of South Korea's military back to Seoul by 2012.  The agreement ends a 50-year pact that gave the U.S. wartime command of South Korea's army, dating to the Korean War.  Under pressure in Iraq, the U.S. had wanted to hand over in 2009. But South Korea pushed for a slower transition.  The U.S. currently has 29,500 troops on the Korean peninsula and Seoul's military numbers 680,000. North Korea has more than one million troops.

Myanmar Cracks Down on Protesters - AP.  At least five protesters who took part in a rare demonstration that urged Myanmar's ruling military junta to improve health care, education and economic conditions were taken into custody Friday, people close to the demonstrators said.  One demonstrator, Htin Kyaw, was arrested at Thursday's protest, another on Thursday night, and three more, including one woman, on Friday on the outskirts of Yangon. Friday's detentions came after state-run media warned that their demonstration had broken the law and could prompt a crackdown.  Myanmar's military junta tolerates little dissent, and strictly curbs freedom of assembly and the media.

Digger in Fatal Timor Shooting - The Australian.  An East Timorese man has been shot dead by an Australian soldier in Dili - the first fatal shooting since last year's controversial peacekeeping deployment to the troubled country.  The shooting, which followed escalating tension in East Timor over the past fortnight, happened at 8.50am yesterday during a disturbance at a refugee camp close to Dili airport.  "During the incident, an ADF (Australian Defence Force) soldier was attacked with steel arrows which are potentially lethal weapons," a Defence Department statement said. "He defended himself by shooting the attacker, resulting in the death of one Timorese national."   Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said that while the death was regrettable, the Digger had acted in self-defence in a life-threatening situation.  The current security situation in East Timor was "not good", he added.

EUROPE

Serbia, Paralyzed by Kosovo, May Face New Election - Reuters.  Coalition talks are going nowhere following Serbia's inconclusive election on January 21 and there may have to be a re-run of the ballot this summer, as the issue of breakaway Kosovo province dominates political life. Major parties have held just one round of fruitless meetings with President Boris Tadic and have since not been able even to schedule new talks, let alone forge a coalition deal.  Talks on the last phase of U.N. envoy Martti Ahtisaari's plan for Kosovo, which would set the Albanian-majority province on a path to independence later this year, started in Vienna this week and are expected to continue to early March.

Fear of Return of Berlusconi Reunites Left Behind Prodi - NY Times.  It wasn’t love or even any real faith that they could stick together long. Rather, it seems, a singular frightening thought pushed nine bickering parties to agree late on Thursday to come together again: that Silvio Berlusconi might soon lead Italy again.  “They have seen what can happen, and they are very frightened,” said Renato Mannheimer, one of Italy’s top pollsters. “They are afraid of Berlusconi.”

Italian PM Asked to Resume Duties - BBC.  Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi has been asked by the president to remain in office after resigning last week over a key vote on foreign policy.  Seeking to end the crisis, President Giorgio Napolitano said Mr Prodi should stay but seek a vote of confidence in his young, centre-left government.  He dismissed as pointless the idea of fresh elections, as demanded by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.  Mr Prodi resigned on Wednesday after losing a vote on troops in Afghanistan.

Turks Charge Kurd With Inciting Hatred - Washington Post.  A politician was charged Friday with inciting hatred and threatening public safety after suggesting that fellow Kurds would rise against the state and fight if Turkey ever attacked their Kurdish brethren in neighboring Iraq.  Police detained Hilmi Aydogdu, leader of the Democratic Society Party's branch in the mainly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, as he left a conference and questioned him over the remarks, said Nazmi Gur, a party spokesman.  Prosecutors later formally arrested Aydogdu and charged him with threatening public safety by inciting racial enmity and hatred.

MIDDLE EAST

Report: Israel Wants to Fly Over Iraq - AP.  Israel opened negotiations to fly through U.S. controlled airspace in Iraq to carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, a British newspaper reported Saturday. Israel's deputy defense minister denied the claim.  The Daily Telegraph newspaper quoted an unnamed Israeli defense official as saying the talks were aimed at planning for all scenarios, including any future decision to target Iran's nuclear program.  Israeli bombers would need a corridor through U.S.-administered airspace in Iraq to carry out any strikes, the official was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

Leaving the Options Open With Iran - NY Times.  As the Bush administration tries to rally allies to tighten sanctions on Iran yet again, it is sending mixed messages to Tehran about its commitment to a diplomatic solution, trying to create new openings for negotiations even while holding open, ever so vaguely, the possibility that the United States might some day resort to force.  In Australia on Friday, Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the strongest advocates of pressing for a “regime change” in Iran, reiterated his belief that a diplomatic solution was possible. But Mr. Cheney noted that “the president has also made it clear that we haven’t taken any options off the table,” a phrase that President Bush frequently uses but has conspicuously avoided in recent weeks while discussing the issue.  At the same time, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice restated her willingness to meet the Iranians anyplace to talk about anything as long as they first agree to stop producing nuclear fuel, even temporarily.

Cheney: 'All Options' Available for Iran - AP.  Vice President Dick Cheney renewed Washington's criticism of Iran on Saturday, saying "all options" remained on the table to deal with that country's regime after it ignored a U.N. deadline to halt uranium enrichment and said it would defy foreign pressure.  Cheney said the United States remained "deeply concerned" about Iran's activities, including the "aggressive" sponsoring of terrorist group Hezbollah and inflammatory statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  He said top U.S. officials would meet soon with European allies to decide the next step toward planned tough sanctions against Iran for its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Ahmadinejad Vows to Defend Nuke Program - AP.  Iran - Critics of Iran's nuclear program are "bullying" Iran, its current president and a former president declared Friday in response to a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog that opens the way for additional sanctions against Iran.  The comments from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, in separate speeches, appeared to show that the Iranian ruling establishment is closing ranks ahead of the possible new measures.

Any U.S. Strike Might Not Destroy Iran Nuclear Sites - Reuters.  Any U.S. attack against Iran could involve thousands of sorties and missile launches lasting weeks, but it still would not eliminate the country's nuclear program, U.S. military officials and analysts say.  A strike -- something the Pentagon insists is not planned -- would be hampered by lack of intelligence on the number and location of nuclear facilities dispersed throughout Iran, the analysts said.  And the most sophisticated U.S. "bunker-buster" bombs might be unable to dig deep enough to reach buried, hardened nuclear sites, according to analysts and defense officials.

Abbas Makes One Last Call for E.U. Support - AP.  Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas made a last push Saturday to win European support for lifting a crippling international aid embargo in talks with French President Jacques Chirac.  However, there were no signs of concessions by Chirac or any of the European leaders Abbas visited this week in their demands for the Palestinians' new coalition government to recognize Israel before the embargo ends.

Hamas' Haniyeh a Popular Politician - AP.  He has a gaggle of bodyguards and a silver Mercedes, but to the people of this refugee camp, Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas is still just "Abul Abed," the neighbor who shares electricity from his generator during power cuts and attends their weddings and funerals.  Haniyeh's down-home style -- he walked home through Shati's alleys after Friday prayers -- has helped to make him one of the most popular Palestinian politicians, despite Hamas' strife-ridden and lackluster year in power.  Haniyeh's crossover appeal is expected to serve him well as he tries to put together a Hamas-Fatah unity government, following a power-sharing deal that ended deadly factional fighting. Unlike most Hamas figures, Haniyeh has a cordial relationship with Fatah leaders.

3 Palestinians Killed in Gaza Shootings - AP.  Three Palestinians were killed and 15 wounded in shootings late Friday and early Saturday, threatening the calm that has accompanied a power-sharing deal between Islamic Hamas militants and the rival Fatah Party.  The violence began shortly before midnight Saturday when Mohammed Ghelban, a 28-year-old commander from Hamas' military wing, was killed in a drive-by shooting outside his home. A 22-year-old man from a Fatah family, Hazem Karouah, was killed several hours later, as was 75-year-old Ismail Sabah, who was caught in the cross-fire.

West Bank Town Fights Israeli Barrier - AP.  Once a week, dozens of Israelis, Palestinians and foreign activists trudge to a small section of Israel's West Bank security barrier in a joint protest initially aimed at preventing its construction and now trying to force its removal.  On the two-year anniversary of the Friday protests at this small West Bank village, which has been riven in two by the barrier, almost nothing has changed. To the protesters, though, simply keeping the controversial barrier in the news is a victory in itself.

Egyptian Forces Find TNT Near Gaza - AP.  Security forces on Friday discovered about 1 ton of explosives hidden underground near Egypt's border with Gaza, a security official said.  Meanwhile, 37 Egyptians and Palestinians -- believed to belong to a large militant network plotting attacks in southern Sinai -- have been arrested, the security official said. The arrests brought the number of those detained in the past three days to 57.  Three of those arrested were Palestinians armed with belts of explosives who intended to sneak into Gaza by an underground tunnel and carry out suicide attacks in Israel, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the press. The official said they had confessed to being members of the Islamic Jihad movement, which is responsible for a number of suicide attacks in Israel.

SOUTH ASIA

Rebels Ambush Indian Police Killing 15 - AP.  India - Fifteen police officers were killed Saturday after suspected rebels ambushed their patrol in India's remote northeast, officials said.  The policemen were returning from election duty in the district of Bishenpur in Manipur state when they were ambushed, said local police chief Jayanta Singh.  A convoy of 60 armed policemen in six vehicles was returning to the district headquarters in Bishenpur town after supervising the last phase of elections to Manipur's state legislature when rebels armed with automatic weapons fired on them, Singh said.

Fourteen Police Killed in Militant Attack in India - Reuters.  India - At least 14 policemen were killed on Saturday in an ambush by suspected militants in India's remote northeastern state of Manipur, a day after provincial elections were held there, a police officer said.  Personnel of the India Reserve Battalion were patrolling in a vehicle in the mountainous district of Tamenglong, about 85 km (50 miles) northwest of the state capital, Imphal, when grenades were thrown at them and they came under fire.

2 Suspected Terrorists Die in Pakistan - AP.  Pakistan - Two suspected terrorists died in eastern Pakistan on Saturday when a powerful bomb they were carrying on a bicycle accidentally exploded near a cattle market, police said.  The men apparently wanted to plant the device at the main cattle market in Cheecha Watni, 60 miles east of Multan, a city in the eastern province of Punjab.  "We believe that these two terrorists wanted to target the cattle market, where hundreds of people were present to buy or sell goats and other animals at the time," said Mohammed Bashir, a local police chief.

Monitors Say 4,000 Dead in Sri Lanka - AP.  European cease-fire monitors said Friday nearly 4,000 people were killed in Sri Lanka in the past 15 months and they emphasized the importance that the government and the rebels adhere to the cease-fire.  In contrast, during the three previous years, fewer than 130 people died in the ethnic conflict, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission said in a statement.

Misguided Missiles - NY Times.  Fifteen years after the cold war’s end, it would seem that everyone involved should know better. But the Bush administration’s tone-deaf plan to station parts of a missile defense system in Eastern Europe and Moscow’s snarling response show that all sides could use a refresher course in diplomatic sense and civility.  American officials insist that the 10 interceptors it is planning to place in Poland and the early warning radar for the Czech Republic are supposed to defend Europe from Iran’s missiles -- not Russia’s. And there is no doubt they’re telling the truth. The untested system could be easily overwhelmed by Russia’s huge nuclear arsenal.  It is unlikely, however, that more military posturing against Iran is going to persuade Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions. Russia’s furious reaction to the stationing of even weak missile defenses near its borders (and on the territory of its former satellites), while wildly out of proportion, was also utterly predictable. A top Russian general -- who sounded as if he’d slept through the last 15 years -- warned the Poles and the Czechs that if they went along with America’s plans, Russia’s missiles “will be capable of targeting the facilities.”...

Benefits of the Doubt - Washington Post.  After a week of terrible publicity, the Defense Department seems to be responding quickly to many of the problems The Post found in a four-month investigation at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. But so far, the most disturbing problem uncovered in The Post's series is getting the least public acknowledgment from generals and journalists alike.  Over the past week, follow-up reports, news releases and news conferences have focused on Army and Navy efforts to improve the physical conditions at Walter Reed and other military facilities serving outpatients. Generals and their press attaches assure reporters that moldy walls will be replaced, holes patched and snow shoveled. The quick pace of repairs, while late, is encouraging. But it is only a start.  The upsetting state of Walter Reed's Building 18 is only part of a larger administrative problem. Post reporters found that confusing bureaucratic rigmarole and interminable waits caused by misplaced paperwork and poor advising were endemic. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates named an independent review panel yesterday and reassuringly promised that it will examine administrative procedures as well as the physical state of outpatient facilities. "They battled our foreign enemies; they should not have to battle American bureaucracy," Mr. Gates said...

COMMENTARY

In For the Long Haul - Michael Hirsh, Newsweek.  The British are leaving, the Iraqis are failing and the Americans are staying - and we’re going to be there a lot longer than anyone in Washington is acknowledging right now. As Democrats and Republicans back home try to outdo each other with quick-fix plans for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and funds, what few people seem to have noticed is that Gen. David Petraeus’s new “surge” plan is committing U.S. troops, day by day, to a much deeper and longer-term role in policing Iraq than since the earliest days of the U.S. occupation. How long must we stay under the Petraeus plan? Perhaps 10 years. At least five. In any case, long after George W. Bush has returned to Crawford, Texas, for good.  Many U.S. military experts now believe that, if there is any hope of stabilizing Iraq, the Petraeus plan is the only way to do it. The critical question now, they say, is whether we have anywhere near enough troops committed to the effort, and whether America has the political will to see the strategy through to the end...

Drawdown Rationale and Risks - Michael O'Hanlon, Washington Times.  The Bush administration is spinning as good news the British decision to reduce its presence in the southern Iraqi city of Basra by at least 1,500 troops. By this perspective, Prime Minister Tony Blair's decision reflects an improvement of the security situation in at least one Iraqi city and may provide a model for other parts of the country.  Indeed, the British decision to reduce its troop presence in Basra is understandable and probably acceptable at one level. Basra, an overwhelmingly Shia city, does not face the sectarian struggles Baghdad and other parts of central and northern Iraq have wrestled with over the last year. And it is further removed from the tactical sanctuaries and car bomb factories and operational headquarters of al Qaeda in Iraq, making it less prone to suffer from terrorist strikes.  To be sure, there are still risks for Basra in this decision. That city and its environs have faced serious periods of warfare among various contending Shia militias in recent years. Some militias are more closely affiliated with Iran, meaning Tehran may sense more of an opportunity now to promote extremist groups that are friendlier to its interests. And any increase in chaos, due to such inter-militia strife or to simple criminality, could slow efforts to make Basra an example for the rest of the country -- not to mention efforts to improve oil production and transportation in and around southern Iraq, something crucial to the entire country's economy...

Anti-war Rhetoric Chorus - Victor Davis Hanson, Washington Times.  Why did a majority of Democratic senators -- such as Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Harry Reid, Jay Rockefeller and Chuck Schumer -- vote to authorize a war with Iraq on Oct. 11, 2002? And why is this war now supposedly George Bush's misfortune and not theirs?  The original fear of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD), of course, played a role in their votes -- but only a role. In the 23 writs that authorized force to remove Saddam, senators at the time also cited Iraq's sanctuary and subsidies for terrorists. Then there were Saddam's attempts to assassinate a former U.S. president; his repression of, and use of weapons of mass destruction against, his own people; and his serial violations of both United Nations and Gulf war agreements. If paranoia over WMD later proved just that, these other more numerous reasons to remove Saddam remain unassailable.    Mr. Reid summed up best the Democrats' feeling there were plenty of reasons to remove Saddam in a post-September 11, 2001, climate. He reminded Senate colleagues that Saddam's refusal to honor past agreements "constitutes a breach of the armistice which renders it void and justifies resumption of the armed conflict."   But it was not just fear of Saddam alone that prompted Democrats to authorize the use of force to remove him. There was the more general, liberal notion of using American arms to stop violent dictators. While the Democratic Party has a strong pacifist wing, its mainstream has always advocated a global promotion of American liberal values -- sometimes through use of pre-emptory force...

Diplomacy, Not War, With Iran - Bill Richardson, Washington Post.  The recent tentative agreement with North Korea over its nuclear program illustrates how diplomacy can work even with the most unsavory of regimes. Unfortunately, it took the Bush administration more than six years to commit to diplomacy. During that needless delay North Korea developed and tested nuclear weapons -- weapons its leaders still have not agreed to dismantle. Had we engaged the North Koreans earlier, instead of calling them "evil" and talking about "regime change," we might have prevented them from going nuclear. We could have, and should have, negotiated a better agreement, and sooner.  As the International Atomic Energy Agency just confirmed, Iran has once again defied the international community and is moving forward with its nuclear program, yet the Bush administration seems committed to repeating the mistakes it made with North Korea. Rather than directly engaging the Iranians about their nuclear program, President Bush refuses to talk, except to make threats. He has moved ships to the Persian Gulf region and claims, with scant evidence, that Iran is helping Iraqi insurgents kill Americans. This is not a strategy for peace. It is a strategy for war -- a war that Congress has not authorized. Most of our allies, and most Americans, don't believe this president, who has repeatedly cried wolf...

Rising Tensions with Iran - Claude Salhani, Washington Times.  As the Wednesday deadline set by the United Nations for Tehran to back down from its controversial nuclear program failed to be met, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he was ready for talks but rejected U.S. preconditions that the Islamic Republic freeze its nuclear works.   In any case, some of Iran's preconditions have already slammed the door shut on possible future talks. The Islamic Republic suggests a complete nuclear free zone in the Middle East. This of course, would mean Israel -- although it has never officially admitted to possessing nuclear weapons -- would be required by such an agreement to dispose of its nuclear arsenal, something hardly likely to happen anytime in the near future.  The foreseeable future in fact does not appear promising for U.S.-Iranian relations. With no direct dialogue between Tehran and Washington, tension in the area is only likely to increase. This week, a second U.S. carrier task force, the USS John C. Stennis, will reach the Gulf around the same time Iranian revolutionary guards are conducting one of the largest military exercises involving live ammunition...

Pragmatism Trumps Ideology on North Korea - Andrew Grotto, Washington Post.  Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her team -- led by Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill -- deserve credit for scoring a major victory in negotiations with North Korea last week. Trading one million tons of heavy fuel oil for North Korea's plutonium production program, which Pyongyang likely used to produce the fissile core for the atomic weapon it tested late last year, is akin to swapping a journeyman fullback for a star quarterback.  After all, the U.S. and its partners in the negotiations -- China, Russia, Japan and South Korea -- can get their hands on one million tons of fuel oil any time they need. Gaining international control over North Korea's budding nuclear weapons program is an altogether different opportunity.  Still, the deal cut in Beijing last week is only a first step towards a grand bargain with North Korea. Whether that grand bargain is achieved over the next few years will depend on North Korea's sincerity about nuclear disarmament, which is by no means certain. But ultimate success will also require that national security pragmatists within the Bush Administration prevail over the conservative ideologues who blocked or sabotaged negotiations with Pyongyang for six fruitless years...

America's Ever-Lasting Threat - Threats Watch.  In the battle against al-Qaeda and like-minded jihadists, the West is doing a less than satisfactory job of understanding its enemy. There is a line in Sun Tzu’s famous work The Art of War that states: “If you know yourself but not your enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.” Although The Art of War was written in the 6th century BC, its message applies to the battle facing us all today. If the West truly knew its enemy, it might reconsider some of proposed actions relating to the war in Iraq...

Smart Power Equalizer: Finding the Mix - MountainRunner.  This is the first post in a multi-part series about the design and application of "smart power".  Counterinsurgency, much like international relations, is about the right amount of power in just the right places. However, in the macro scheme of international relations, there is room for fudging and fine grain controls aren't as necessary. Counterinsurgency requires, as I see it, requires greater finesse to be successful.  Bridging the ideas of hard power (generally kinetic use of force) with soft power (non-coercive persuasion), we arrive at the somewhat new and fashionable term Smart Power (side note: see the Smart Power Blog for one of the few overt discussions on the topic under the banner "smart power"). To counterinsurgency, this isn't new...

Operation Baghdad: Week II - Iraq the Model.  It's been less than two weeks since the Baghdad operation was officially launched. This period, though short, has been full of events; both good and bad ones.  Here we are not in a rush to judge the operation unlike some media or politicians who seek anything they can use to serve their agendas. We, Baghdadis, only want this operation to succeed and we still have some patience to show.  These days I make sure that I have daily tour in Baghdad, covering both Karkh and Resafa (west and east) and these tours aren't exactly boring because there are always new things to see...

New Type of IEDs Impact U.S. Forces in Iraq - Threats Watch.  The two “dirty” chlorine truck bomb explosions have gotten most of the recent publicity, and may signal a change in tactics and capabilities on the part of the “insurgents.” However, not getting as much play in the media is a new type of IED called a “speed bump” made from plastic explosive sandwiched between two layers of metal (even like baking tins). These homemade devices explode when a vehicle travels over it, often ripping into the underbelly of an unarmored underside. Military officials in Iraq point to these “speed bumps” as another emerging IED threat -- one that has received less attention because it does not require Iranian assistance to manufacture...

Terrorists in Iraq Try Chemical Warfare - Westhawk.  For the third time in a month terrorists in Iraq attempted to employ chlorine to cause mass death and panic. The New York Times explains.  It is not obvious at this point who the terrorists are or what their specific objective is, since the attacks have occurred both north and south of Baghdad and in Ramadi.  Whoever the attackers are, perhaps they were inspired by a report issued in June 2004 by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security titled Planning Scenarios (h/t Globalsecurity.org). Planning Scenarios describes 15 types of natural disasters and terror attacks. DHS prepared and distributed this report to aid the disaster planning efforts of U.S. state and local governments...

Outside Baghdad and the Iraq Security Plan - The Fourth Rail.  While the major focus of the Iraq security plan is the capital of Baghdad, Iraqi and Coalition forces have stepped up operations in the provinces. The intent is obvious: while Baghdad is in the process of being secured and troops continue to deploy into the city, the weapons, suicide bombers and foreign fighters must be interdicted before they reach the city limits. The Iraqi government and Coalition are pressing the insurgency both inside Baghdad, and on the peripheries. Three provinces have seen significant operations to press the insurgents and al-Qaeda in the past few days: Anbar (west of Baghdad), Diyala (northeast) and Babil (south). Operations are also being conducted south of Baghdad as well. These regions serve as the ratlines and staging areas for the terrorists, and the Iraqi and Coalition must degrade the enemy's capabilities in these regions to take the pressure off of Baghdad...

Modern Counterinsurgency - Captain's Journal.  Counterinsurgency in Iraq is proving to be difficult, and not amenable to the classical understanding of how it is supposed to be conducted.  The potable water supply in the al Anbar Province is described as a desperate situation, and aid workers and other government representatives cannot access the region to repair the systems or bring in potable water due to security concerns.  Umm Muhammad Jalal, 39, starts every day walking to a river 7km away from her temporary home in a displacement camp on the outskirts of Fallujah, 70km west of the capital, Baghdad. Because of severe water shortages, she and many others make the daily trip to the river to collect water for all their needs.  “For the past four months we have been forced to drink, wash and clean with the river water. There is a dire shortage of potable water in Fallujah and nearby cities,” Umm Muhammad said.  “My children are sick with diarrhoea but I have no option. They cannot live without water,” she added. “Aid agencies that were helping us with their trucks of potable water are less and less frequent these days for security reasons. For the same reason, the military doesn’t want the [aid] convoys to get too close to some areas.”...

Our Ethiopian Partners - Captain's Quarters.  Ethiopia just finished off the radical Islamists who attempted to seize control of Somalia, but that has just been their latest efforts to thwart Islamist terrorism. The US has worked closely with the Ethiopians to combat the spread of al-Qaeda in Africa, or at least we did until the New York Times reported it this morning...

Talibanistan Expands Beyond Tribal Areas - The Fourth Rail.  Western Pakistan's decent into a Taliban state becomes more and more apparent as each day passes. For well over the past year we warned that not only were the tribal areas and Quetta falling to the Taliban, but the Taliban was seeking to expand its influence into the settled regions of Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province.  The Taliban, sufficiently emboldened by the Pakistani government's unwillingness to meaningfully deal with with the threat, is now publicly flexing its muscle in the settled regions of the Northwest Frontier Province.

Expanding Miramshah And The Resurgent Enemy - Threats Watch.  The Taliban and al-Qaeda have continued their resurgence in Pakistan, particularly since the signing of the Miramshah agreement between the Pakistani government and the tribal leaders of North Waziristan. The result has been the effective creation of a safe haven for training, planning and launching operations. A recent New York Times article cites intelligence officials who indicate that, not only have the Taliban and al-Qaeda built new training camps in Pakistan, but at least one of the camps is suspected of being used for and/or capable of training for al-Qaeda attacks beyond the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater. As the article cites, several of the would-be attackers in the foiled plot to blow up airliners over U.S. cities in-bound from London had “clear linkages” with “core al-Qaeda” terrorists in Pakistan...

Oil, Anbar and the Insurgency - The Fourth Rail.  On February 18, The New York Times broke the news on the potential for major petroleum development in Anbar province. While the oilfields in Anbar aren't thought to as large as the fields in the Kurdish north and Shia south, the discovery of significant oil and gas reserves will influence the contentious debate occurring in the Iraqi parliament and cabinet over the future petroleum law. The Sunnis, who have access to few oil resources, have fought for central control over oil revenues and contract, but the discovery of reserves in the Sunni regions may soften this stance. The The New York Times also noted the Iraqi cabinet may be close to a compromise on the petroleum law, all but ensuring passage in the parliament.  I had the opportunity to interview Colonel John A. Koenig, USMC. Col Koenig is the II MEF (Marine Expeditionary Force) G-5 (Governance and Economics) concerning this development. The G-5 is in charge of all of the civil-military operations in II MEF's area of operation in Anbar province. The interview is published in full...

Bullies And The Bullies Who Bully Them - Threats Watch.  Today, both past and present presidents of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, claimed in separate speeches that its critics (ie: the West - primarily the United States) is ‘bullying’ Iran on its nuclear weapons program after the release fo the IAEA report on Iran’s program. This strikes as an unseemly attempt at posturing as victims for the world’s premier state sponsor of international terrorism...

Play it Fair - The Belmont Club.  Now here's the truth. An independent commission accused the Philippine Armed Forces of tolerating, even encouraging political assassinations -- but found that those killed by the Communist movement far outnumbered the victims of the military. (Philippine Star)  Great. I will now wait, with bated breath for the United Nations and Human Rights Organizations all over the world to seek the custody not only of any murderers in uniform, but also of the man who leads the Communist Party of the Philippines, the man who probably masterminded the murder of Colonel James Rowe. Jose Maria Sison, chairman of the Communist Party of the Philippines. They don't have far to look for Sison. He currently lives in the Netherlands, not far from the Hague...

Is Southern Thailand Going the Way of Waziristan? - The Belmont Club.  The South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG) warns of the slow takeover of Thailand's majority Muslim southern provinces by faceless, anonymous, but deadly attackers.  There seems a lack of consensus about two aspects of the situation in Southern Thailand. First. How serious is it really? The SAAG thinks it is. Others may disagree. Second, who really leads the insurgency? Is it still fundamentally driven by a Malay/Muslim national feeling or is it the Jihad?...

Battle Labs Closing - Threats Watch.  The Air Force Times reports that budget constraints are forcing the close of all seven of its battle labs.  It is worth noting that the Air Force’s first battle lab was established in response to the terrorist bombing of Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. Ironically, we are currently engaged with an enemy that constantly changes tactics and adopts new methodologies (read: innovates) in response to our superior physical force and technological advantages. One could argue that the Air Force has a smaller dog in the fight when compared to the Army or Marines, but the recent rash of aircraft that have been brought down over the skies of Baghdad should give every aviator pause...