Small Wars Journal

Will Robert Gates stay in the game?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 5:00pm
This afternoon at the American Enterprise Institute, Defense Secretary Robert Gates delivered what he termed "my last major policy speech in Washington" before retiring next month. Gates's speech broke no new ground but was rather a final summation of his views on America's role in the world, the challenges of managing the Pentagon, and how policymakers should approach strategy and the Pentagon's budget in the coming age of fiscal austerity.

Four and a half years in the E-Ring have taken their toll. But Gates energetically made the case for U.S. diplomatic and military leadership and a robust forward military presence in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Gates repeated his concerns about cutting future defense spending and pledged that the latest defense review, sparked by President Obama's call to cut $400 billion from security spending over the next 12 years, will result in a presentation to Obama of the resulting risks and not an across-the-board budget slash that results in a hollowed-out force.

Gates discussed his frustrations managing the department. He was disappointed that he and his staff were unable to wring more savings out of the Pentagon's "Fourth Estate," the many defense agencies, field offices, and commands, which he described as a "semi-feudal system," devoid of accurate accounting and performance measurements and thus impervious to management.

He also expressed bewilderment that a doubling in procurement and research spending over the past decade has resulted in so little additional capability, a marked contrast to the success of the Reagan-era buildup which delivered new platforms for all of the services -- almost all of which remain best-in-class today. But in spite of this poor showing, Gates asserted that it was simply mandatory for the country to acquire a new aerial tanker fleet, the F-35, a new ballistic missile submarine fleet, a larger Navy, and recapitalized ground forces. Having said that, he said that if there was a significant chop to the Pentagon's top line, he would much rather have a smaller but superbly capable force rather than a large hollow one.

Finally, Gates closed his last policy address in Washington by asserting that the United States remains the indispensible nation and that it cannot escape its special responsibilities regarding global security. With fiscal and moral exhaustion setting in, that view will certainly come up for debate between now and November 2012.

What remains to be seen is what role Gates himself will play in that debate. The standard practice is for retiring statesmen such as Gates to disappear from the stage for a long interlude, both for well-needed rest and to write their memoir. Gates will no doubt greatly prefer to follow this path.

But will events allow him this option? He has firm views about the issues he addressed and cares about the policy outcomes that will occur. Most significantly, Gates's stature on strategy and defense planning are unequaled. Most Republicans concur with his views while Democrats will find difficulty challenging him due to his service to Obama. On defense issues, Gates's credibility is nearly impervious.

With many critical decision points looming over the next two years, Gates may not be able to take the traditional break from the stage. The defense review and the future years defense plan could be debated and resolved in a manner that trashes his counsel. Will Gates -- for many, the indispensible man on defense issues -- remain silent during the upcoming debate? Although he no doubt wants a long breather, Gates may end up staying in the game after his retirement.

Comments

tankfixer

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 6:23pm

President Gates... ?

Publius (not verified)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 6:12pm

First US member named of the US-UK Joint National Security Policy Council, or whatever it's called.