What President Trump’s Foreign Policy Will Look Like by David Ignatius, Washington Post
Donald Trump proclaimed “America First” on his way to his head-spinning victory in Tuesday’s presidential election, and the success of that message will rock many foreign capitals where leaders have feared that Trump would alter the basics of U.S. foreign policy.
Making predictions about Trump’s foreign policy is difficult, given his lack of experience. But the most likely bet is that as president he will seek to do what he promised during the campaign in breaking from current U.S. approaches to Russia, the Middle East, Europe and Asia…
A Trump foreign policy, based on his statements, will bring an intense “realist” focus on U.S. national interests and a rejection of costly U.S. engagements abroad. It will likely bring these changes:
A move to improve relations with a combative, assertive Russia…
A joint military effort with Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to defeat the Islamic State…
A new push for European allies to pay more for their own defense…
An attempt to alter the terms of trade in Asia by renegotiating trade pacts and forcing China to revalue its currency…
Comments
Freudian slip or just poor spelling and poor education....twice in the last two days from Trump.....
AND he cannot figure out that the current Chinese acting out is over his China bashing and Taiwan call?????? They definitely are signaling him their dislike not sure he "get's it"....
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
China steals United States Navy research drone in international waters - rips it out of water and takes it to China in unpresidented act.
"In 1790 George Washington wrote to John Adams using the word unpresidented, Adams replied "lol that's not a word, gtfo"."
Trump team: Too early for timing on U.S. embassy move to Jerusalem
http://reut.rs/2hWD2qU
THIS will inherently whip lash the entire ME......and it will destroy the two state concept that is needed to finally resolved the Palestine question which is at the heart of all the ME issues....and has been since 1945....
SO how is exactly the Trump son-in-law suppose to resolve the Palestinian Israeli dispute....?????
BUT WAIT...Hezbollah has sworn it will march into Jerusalem........
It's a good thing Trump won't need any Arab allies to defeat #ISIS & AQ.
Nominating an Amb to Israel who advocates a 1-state solution & calls liberal Jews Kapos...yeah, that Trump peace process is gonna move FAST!
Syria 1100 people deported from Aleppo today. Thousands follow in next days. In 2017 city is ethnic cleansed from Sunni arabs.
WOW...now Israel wakes up.....
The fall of Aleppo to pro-Assad forces has heightened alarm in Israel
http://read.bi/2h4jctG
The Trump cabinet wants to stop Iran. So what do they propose to do about Aleppo, which Iran just conquered?
http://thebea.st/2h2XQx5
The Hill
✔
@thehill
McMullin: "I know for a fact" GOP knew about Russian election meddling and ignored it
http://hill.cm/7D5YUng
This types of "fake news tweets" from Trump personnel is not healthy for US FP....
http://www.polygraph.info/a/baltic-states-trump-advisor-conway-/2817536…
TWEET FROM:
Kellyanne Conway
senior advisor to president-elect Donald Trump
“[The Baltic presidents'] participation had not been cleared in advance, however Trump restrained himself and did interrupt the conversation. But when all three Balts, interrupting each other, began to speak of Russian aggression, the 45th president of the U.S.A. didn't hold back and said, ‘Shut up, please, and let's follow some elementary decency. Then maybe it will all work out for you.’"
Source: AIS (Agenstvo Informatsionnykh Soobshcheniy), Nov. 30, 2016
False
not only quote, but entire story created out of thin air.
The Russian Agency for News Reports (AIS) claimed on November 30 that Kellyanne Conway, former campaign manager for president-elect Donald Trump and now his senior advisor, reportedly gave an interview to CNN host Christiane Amanpour on November 28. According to AIS, Conway allegedly described a phone call that Trump had with Lithuanian President Dalya Grybauskaite during which she supposedly brought in her fellow Baltic leaders, Latvian President Raimonds Vejonis and Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid unexpectedly.
Conway was quoted as commenting that the impromptu phone call was an example of "outrageous cases of ignorance in diplomacy, and also etiquette on the part of some states of little significance."
According to AIS, Conway allegedly portrayed the Baltic leaders as interrupting each other to tell Trump about Russian aggression, which led to him telling them to "shut up."
None of this story is true.
Polygraph asked the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry if such a phone call had taken place, as no official statement had been made about it. Zivile Didzgalviene of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry's Press Service told Polygraph, "There was no such phone conversation."
Kellyanne Conway has given a number of interviews recently to CNN, and even one posted November 28, but it was with Tom LoBianco, not Christiane Amanpour, and concerned the prospect of Governor Mitt Romney's appointment as Secretary of State. There was no mention at all of the Baltics.
Polygraph also contacted Christiane Amanpour of CNN. "Thanks for checking. And yes this story is FAKE," Amanpour emphasized, adding, "I have not interviewed Conway."
China, target of Trump tweets, could in turn target Ford or GM.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-penalty-idUSKBN143014
Reuters Top News
✔
@Reuters
BREAKING: Syria's Assad says if Trump can genuinely fight terrorism he can become our 'natural ally' - Russian TV
SAYS the man who is killing civilians by the hundreds of thousands in Syria and is a war criminal.....
AND who is committing genocide in Aleppo.......
According to the BBC's live blog on the Aleppo crisis, Western operated drones are capturing data/evidence of war crimes & atrocities.
Trump's Natsec advisor Flynn, shared classified material according to Army docs @washingtonpost obtained under FOI.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trumps-national-…
A secret U.S. military investigation in 2010 determined that Michael T. Flynn, the retired Army general tapped to serve as national security adviser in the Trump White House, “inappropriately shared” classified information with foreign military officers in Afghanistan, newly released documents show.
Although Flynn lacked authorization to share the classified material, he was not disciplined or reprimanded after the investigation concluded that he did not act “knowingly” and that “there was no actual or potential damage to national security as a result,” according to Army records obtained by The Washington Post under the Freedom of Information Act.
Flynn has previously acknowledged that he was investigated while serving as the U.S. military intelligence chief in Afghanistan for sharing secrets with British and Australian allies there. But he has dismissed the case as insignificant and has given few details.
The Army documents provide the first official account of the case, but they are limited in scope because the investigation itself remains classified. Former U.S. officials familiar with the matter said that Flynn was accused of telling allies about the activities of other agencies in Afghanistan, including the CIA.
The Army files call into question Flynn’s prior assertion that he had permission to share the sensitive information.
During the presidential race, Flynn campaigned vigorously for Republican nominee Donald Trump and drew attention for his scalding attacks against Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified material.
Clinton was investigated by the FBI for allowing classified information to be transmitted on her private email server when she ran the State Department. No charges were filed against the former secretary of state, but the issue dogged her for more than a year.
At the Republican National Convention in July, Flynn called on Clinton to drop out of the race for putting “our nation’s security at extremely high risk with her careless use of a private email server.” He egged on the partisan crowd in chants of “lock her up,” adding: “If I, a guy who knows this business, if I did a tenth, a tenth of what she did, I would be in jail today.”
Flynn did not respond to requests for comment.
The office of the Army’s Judge Advocate General released a four-page summary of the investigation into Flynn in response to The Post’s Freedom of Information Act request for records of any misconduct allegations involving the retired three-star general.
The U.S. military opened the investigation into Flynn in 2010 after receiving a complaint from an unnamed Navy intelligence specialist, according to the documents. The intelligence officer charged that Flynn violated rules by “inappropriately” sharing secrets with “various foreign military officers and/or officials in Afghanistan.”
The documents do not reveal the nature of the information. But former U.S. officials familiar with the case said it centered on slides and other materials containing classified information about CIA operations in Afghanistan.
“It was a general intelligence briefing that included stuff that shouldn’t have been on those slides,” said a former senior U.S. intelligence official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the subject. The disclosures revealed “stuff the intelligence community was doing that had a much higher level of classification.”
The agency has had an extensive presence in the Afghanistan since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Beyond gathering intelligence on al-Qaeda and the Taliban, the CIA has also assembled its own paramilitary networks in the country, paying warlords for cooperation and funding armed groups known as Counterterrorism Pursuit Teams.
A second former U.S. official said Flynn failed to secure permission to reveal those secrets. “This was a question of whether or not information was put through proper channels before it was shared,” the second official said.
The episode marked the second time in a year that Flynn had drawn official complaints for his handling of classified material.
Former U.S. officials said that Flynn had disclosed sensitive information to Pakistan in late 2009 or early 2010 about secret U.S. intelligence capabilities being used to monitor the Haqqani network, an insurgent group accused of repeated attacks on U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
Flynn exposed the capabilities during meetings with Pakistani officials in Islamabad. The former U.S. intelligence official said a CIA officer who accompanied Flynn reported the disclosures to CIA headquarters, which then relayed the complaint to the Defense Department. Flynn was verbally reprimanded by the Pentagon’s top intelligence official at the time, James R. Clapper Jr.
Clapper subsequently became director of national intelligence and endorsed Flynn to become his successor as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. In 2014, however, Clapper forced Flynn out of that job over concerns with his temperament and management.
The newly disclosed Army documents state that the 2010 investigation was ordered by the head of U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan. Although the records do not say exactly when the case was opened, the commander at the time would have been Marine Gen. James Mattis.
Mattis took charge at Central Command’s headquarters in Tampa, Fla., in August 2010. One month later, Flynn was ordered back to Washington from Afghanistan. He was assigned to a temporary job at the Pentagon as the special assistant to the Army’s chief of intelligence while the investigation unfolded, records show.
M
attis was nominated this month by Trump to serve as secretary of defense. In that role, Mattis will work closely with Flynn; the retired generals are expected to be the most influential voices on national security in the Trump administration.
The Army documents that summarize the investigation into Flynn do not specify which countries he was accused of improperly sharing secrets with. In an interview with The Post in August, Flynn said he was scrutinized for giving classified information to British and Australian officials serving in Afghanistan alongside U.S. forces.
In that interview, Flynn defended his actions and said he did nothing wrong. “That was substantiated because I actually did it. But I did it with the right permissions when you dig into that investigation. I’m proud of that one. Accuse me of sharing intelligence in combat with our closest allies, please.”
The Army documents, however, state explicitly that the Central Command investigation determined that Flynn did not have permission to share the particular secrets he divulged. The Defense Department’s inspector general, which conducted an independent review of the investigation, came to the same conclusion, the documents show.
It is routine for the U.S. military to share intelligence in Afghanistan with NATO allies such as Britain, as well as other members of the broader international coalition fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda, including Australia. But there are established mechanisms and guidelines that must be followed.
Flynn was highly regarded within the Army for the key role he played in shaping U.S. counterterrorism strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Pentagon officials had intended to promote Flynn in 2010 to the rank of lieutenant general and to make him assistant director of national intelligence, a job that would place him in charge of improving ties with foreign intelligence agencies.
The Central Command investigation delayed his career advancement for a full year. He received his promotion and new assignment in September 2011.
After being forced to retire from the military in 2014, Flynn became a vocal opponent of the Obama administration’s policies regarding Iran and al-Qaeda. At the same time, he gained a reputation for floating conspiracy theories on Twitter.
Some Democratic lawmakers have criticized his selection as Trump’s national security adviser. The position is not subject to Senate confirmation.
ARE we now seeing the true limits of Russian so called military power when they cannot even get their own so called allies to adhere to what they have negotiated???????? AND Trump wants to be their "friend"...when they cannot even hold to what they have stated they themselves have negotiated...?????????
Ukrainians will be watching this closely.......
Aleppo activist: we prepared injured people to be evacuated yesterday via Jisr al haj but Nujaba militia refused to let them out
Syria More airstrikes now on besieged neigborhoods in #Aleppo city
East Aleppo residents sending steady stream of audio recording capturing sound of heavy fighting around them. Evacuation buses have left.
REMEMBER these Russian Ambassador statements.....
1. Russian Syrian Ambassador......Assad will not attack Aleppo....
2. YESTERDAY at the UNSC...Russian Ambassador Churkin stated....."the fighting is over"........
BOTH lied and lied and lied.....AND Trump believes he can do deals with Putin??????
Trump "strategy" of distracting while also feeding media conspiracy/lies are propaganda tactics to control information & public.
European anxiety deepens over 'disruptive' Trump presidency
http://reut.rs/2gIrJ8b
Tillerson stands out as one of the greatest opponents of the current #US policy on #Russia
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/q-a-what-does-a-fr…
In September Carter Page lobbies lifting #Russian sanctions.
In December, during transition, he arrives to #Moscow.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/year-the-life-donald-trump-and-…
…
Exxon Mobil "has billions of dollars in oil contracts that can go forward only if US lifts sanctions against Russia"
http://nyti.ms/2hnFutY
Trump already on path to extradite a man Turkish president wants and who is using blackmail of Trump biznes to get.
http://www.newsweek.com/2016/12/23/donald-trump-foreign-business-deals-…
Carter Page announced Tillerson in Moscow before Trump did in USA - also slammed NATO
http://heatst.com/politics/carter-page-tells-moscow-rex-tillerson-is-se…
Carter was presented in the Russian media in Moscow as a close advisor to Trump
Trump administration's 1st #NATO decision could lead to US losing "its highest-ranking official in NATO"
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/trump-team-working-to-r…
The incoming Trump administration is looking to get rid of the No. 2 official at NATO, an American nominated by President Obama whom most Republicans don’t trust. But NATO’s Brussels leadership may not play along, setting up an early confrontation with President Trump.
Two Trump transition sources told me that a representative of the transition team met late last month with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels and delivered a private but deliberate message: The incoming administration would like Stoltenberg to replace Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller. Gottemoeller, who was nominated for the post by Obama this past March, started her job in Brussels only in October and has a multi-year contract. She works for NATO, not the U.S. government.
If NATO leadership agreed to remove Gottemoeller, it would set a new precedent for U.S. government control over American officials in top NATO positions. If the NATO leadership doesn’t agree, the incoming Trump administration could work to marginalize Gottemoeller and render her ineffective. Either way, her role is set to change when the new U.S. president comes into office....
Trump transition sources told me that Stoltenberg agreed to look into how Gottemoeller might be removed. But NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu told me there has been no formal request from the Trump transition team for Gottemoeller to be let go and that no process for examining such a move is underway.
“This is not a national appointment, and the selection is made in a competition, based on merit,” Lungescu said. “Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller enjoys the full support of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the North Atlantic Council....”
Gottemoeller’s allies see the Trump transition team’s quiet move to replace her in NATO as a brazen, brute-force tactic to pressure the alliance to bend to Trump’s will.
“This is a whispering campaign by schoolyard bullies to try to pressure an organization they have already disrespected,” said Ellen Tauscher, who served as undersecretary of state for arms control before Gottemoeller. “Do they really want to pick a fight with the first American woman who is in NATO leadership, somebody who was confirmed by the Senate more than once?”
There is no formal mechanism for a member country to ask NATO to remove an official. Stoltenberg may rebuff the effort altogether. If the Trump administration can’t get Gottemoeller removed, it could just work around her, limiting contact to whomever Trump appoints as the U.S. permanent representative to NATO. Gottemoeller would stay in place, but without the backing of her home government and without access to any American officials....
If Gottemoeller decides to step aside, there’s no guarantee an American would be chosen to replace her. Trump would be able to nominate someone for the job, but other countries would nominate their citizens as well. The United States might lose its highest-ranking official in NATO.
Will be ending my posting for the Syrian thread now as this is the final example of a totally failed US FP for the ME....a failed policy for dealing with IS and a failed policy that now proves the US only mouths the words...."rule of law..good governance and transparency".....it has been and is a total farce....
Never ever thought I would experience my own country...it is until 4 January 2017 for me....I never thought I would experience the blatant failure to stop genocide...war crimes....starvation and ethnic cleansing WHEN the US has the ability to stop it.....
The Obama WH with it's "do nothing stupid" was one of the worst WHs in the last 70 odd years as they never ever really had a single strategy other than "doing nothing stupid" and that with winning the Nobel Peace Prize for doing outside of what ....being the first black President??????
Syria will now degrade into a true guerrilla war and those FSA moderate forces that believed the West would help them will turn now to JFS (AQ) as they radicalize....a radicalization forced on them by the US and Obama.......
The threat of IS and radicalized Salafists will haunt the US for the coming decade....and that is the legacy of this Obama WH...they made the problem just worse as well as being totally complicit now in genocide..war crimes...starvation and ethnic cleansing on a scale never seen before in the ME......
Comment from inside Aleppo this morning
R.I.P. Aleppo
Assad, Putin & Iran have killed you.
The world is complicit in your murder.
We won't forget nor forgive those responsible.
BREAKING: Turkey's former Prime Minister @Ahmet_Davutoglu says Syria's Bashar al-Assad is committing a massacre, aided by Iran and Russia.
AND Obama is out golfing this week....
AND the Trump WH FP will be no better actually in fact probably worse...if that is even possible.......
WITH the anti Assad forces not receiving assistance from the West and largely not supported by their own backers we will see a radicalization of the FSA moderate forces moving towards JFS (AQ) and in 2017 we the West will get what many have feared since 2011.....
A war with Syrian Islamists against the whole world now......and there are over 100,000 of them and you thought that we have problems with IS.....
The gloves are now coming off with the Salafist groups and FSA now with each and every execution carried out in Aleppo and the Syria war which was bloody enough is just going to get bloodier......and that is nothing Trump can do to end it even if he sides with Putin and Assad both on record now for supporting genocide and war crimes.....AND ethnic cleansing....
This is the current state of the Syrian Aleppo genocide in progress that will affect anything Trump can figure out what to do in Syria either with and or without Putin and Assad....
We can now safely state the Obama WH has suffered a major defeat of any ME strategy they thought would influence their "legacy".....
Taken from the Syrian thread from today......
'Liberation' of Aleppo, Assadist-style...
- Reports of children burned alive and mass executions in the street as Aleppo falls to Syrian Army
- summary execution of 79 in Sakhour, Salihin, and Fardous,
- summary execution of 37 in Bustan al-Qasr District,
- summary execution of 200 in Qalseh District,
- summary execution of 14 from Ajam, Hassan and Masri families, 29 from Fasier, Hajjar, Sande families, 25 from Ako and Fael families in Fardous and Salhin Districts,
- massacres by IRGC's Iraqi Shi'a jihadists,
- reports about rape at regime checkpoints,
... and so on. In essence, this is like if Jews would have had the ability to live-stream Nazi massacres during the WWII...
Evidence? Assadists are happily sharing resulting photos around the Twitter. Sorry if I'm too disgusted to 'share' these.
...all of which is little surprising considering it's not only the worst Shabbiha thugs of Liwa Suqour as-Sahra and the Fawj Maghawir al-Bahr ('Sea Commandos') but also the Syrian Nazis of the SSNP, plus IRGC's Iraqi Shi'a jihadists that were unleashed upon civilians there...
Preliminary figures are indicating that they've already massacred about tenfold more people in Aleppo of the last few days alone, than the Daesh in all of the last two years...
Hope, all the Assad-, Putler- and IRGc-fans are going to enjoy this, and I'm sure they'll do their best to white-wash it. Others can continue to ignore it, just to have 'clean conscience': why care, it's Christmas time...
Fighting-wise, there's not that much to report as the insurgent defences inside Aleppo de-facto collapsed. Few exceptions were such like:
- Katiba Abu al-Joud (JAI) fought to the last in Qalseh District;
- insurgents have thwarted an IRGC advance into Sallahaddin District, but have definitely lost Sheikh Saeed District;
- fighting is currently concentrated on Sallahaddin District.
That's the centrepiece of the uprising in Aleppo ever since mid-2011, so I guess, the battle is going to 'end' there too (massacres: certainly not).
That aside,
- Assadists are already celebrating the end of battle; and
- their fans abroad are declaring the battle for over, supposedly 'as rebels withdraw' (without saying where, though)...
***********
Flying activity
Russians launched only two air strikes the whole night, then two at 06.45 - guess because they are so 'angry' with the Daesh. Assadists started flying around 07.45, when a single Su-22 took off from Shayrat in NE direction... (considering the supposedly 'critical' situation in regards of Palmyra, nonchalance of the regime remains nothing short of 'amazing').
Instead, they then began launching the usual stream of air strikes on Eastern Aleppo - foremost by helicopters from as-Safira. It was only around 10.00hrs that four Su-22s were launched from Tiyas that all went in eastern direction - i.e. presumably attacked Daesh. From time to time, they were followed by single MiG-23s from Shayrat, and - around 11.09 - 'even' by one Su-24...
Russians meanwhile continued at a leisure pace, launching a total of fantastic 6 air strikes by 11.00hrs... Some of these against Raqqa, as can be read further below. Activity of VKS reconnaissance aircraft can also only be described as 'frenetic': one UAV and one recce aircraft (type not recognized) were observed over Khan Sheikhoun, in south-western Idlib Governorate around the noon. 15-20 minutes later, 2 Russians bombed Ma'arat an-Nauman and Sarqib... around 12.40, two others bombed Khan Touman.
Eventually, it was only between 13.00 and 15.00hrs, that ops of Su-22s and MiG-23s from Shayrat picked some pace: about 20 of their take-offs were registered. On the contrary, Su-24s bombed Idlib and few other places around.
Russians then 'took over' around 18.00hr, launching four additional air strikes - and with that, the flying day was over.
Totals:
SyAAF
helicopters: 16
L-39: 0
MiG-21: 6
MiG-23: 12 (most of these against Daesh)
Su-22: 29 (14-15 of these against Daesh)
Su-24: 8
UAVs: 2
VKS: 25
V-MF: 2
helicopters: 1 (yup, 1 Mi-24)
recce: 1
************
al-Bab
TSK/FSyA forces have entered the Zamzam District (western al-Bab), but for my taste, the THK and Turkish artillery are now getting much too trigger-happy too, with rather tragic consequences for the local population, as can be seen here or here (both videos confirmed to have been taken yesterday.
While I'm still trying to find out what was targeted there, one of local activists has pointed me at the weapon used in both cases as Turkish variant of the GBU-31 - which is a strange choice: AFAIK, CENTCOM, for example, would never come to the idea to use a 907kg warhead in the middle of a densely populated area. It's simply too hefty.
***********
Raqqa
Russians discovered there's Daesh in Raqqa, so bombed the place - and promptly hit one of local markets, massacring 20 civilians.
...was the most obvious 'target', I guess...
***********
Hama
Multiple air strikes deployed Sarin gas to murder 85 civilians in Jruh, Salaliya, and Hamada Omar villages, in Aqeerbat area, in Daesh-held parts of eastern Hama... (that said, there are reports citing up to 93 civilians killed there). That's then called Russians pounding ISIS oil tankers.
***********
Homs
Meanwhile, Tiyas AB is surrounded from three sides, and the Daesh issued an ultimatum for Assadists there to withdraw or face consequences (see 'massacre'). Assad-fans are reporting arrival of '16 SAA special forces'[/URL], but gauging by who is emitting videos of this kind, it's [s]Hezbollah[/s]...erm... 'Syrian Arab Army' of course... that's fighting there now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKTmM-zphOU
...and they 'launched a small counter-attack...
The next Trump move? Will play very badly across the Muslim world. And be a great gift to Daesh and their likes.
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.758560 …
Here’s What America Needs to Know About Trump and Russia
By Evelyn Farkas
| December 12, 2016
http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...to-know-214520
Quote:
Continued.....
I've worked in the defense community for the last 20 years, the past 3 years as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia. Over that time, my colleagues and I have watched Russian cyber-operations become far more ambitious and insidious. They've moved from technical denial-of-service attacks – targeting Estonia in 2007, Georgia in 2008 and against Ukraine’s internet and cellular phone networks in 2014 and electrical grid a year later – to use of cyber spying and release of captured information to influence publics, including their own. In 2014, during U.S. and European Union negotiations to build a transitional government in Ukraine, Russia made public a wiretapped conversation between my colleagues Assistant Secretary Toria Nuland and the U.S. Ambassador in Ukraine, Geoff Pyatt, during which Nuland is heard saying “#### the E.U.” The objective was to embarrass U.S. officials and increase tension between them and their European Union counterparts.
I watched as Russia funded far-right and far-left political parties in Western and Eastern Europe (most notably in France and Hungary), as well as NGOs and used its economic influence (especially in oil and gas) to pressure European politicians to support Kremlin objectives. This fall we saw Moscow continue to intervene in other nations' politics, funding pro-Russian political parties in Moldova, and sponsoring demonstrations against that country's pro-Western government. This week the head of the German domestic intelligence agency warned: "We see aggressive and increased cyber spying and cyber operations that could potentially endanger German government officials, members of parliament and employees of democratic parties."
We know from the most senior intelligence officials that the Russian government hacks and transfer of information to Wikileaks were conducted at a minimum to cause Americans to lose faith in their political process, and at a maximum to increase the odds that Trump could win the election. And we should heed their words: As a close consumer of intelligence on Russia for 3 critical years, I know our intelligence on Russia, unlike that on North Korea, for example, is excellent.
Given Russia's capabilities and its recent patterns, it is not at all far-fetched to ask whether Trump is indeed the “puppet” Secretary Clinton mockingly named him in the second presidential debate. Is he financially and politically beholden to Russians close to the government and to the Kremlin itself? If so, is he prepared to accommodate Putin’s interests? Should we expect a robust "reset," in the tense relationship between the two countries, perhaps one that even compromises U.S. interests, like the stability of its allies in Europe, and American values, like democracy and human rights? If the Trump administration attempts one, it is worth noting that whatever the US gives up would likely be very temporary: for domestic political reasons, Putin needs the United States as its public enemy, given Russia’s current and foreseeable economic situation, and Russian presidential elections are coming up in 2018.
Today, we already have enough clues and too much undisclosed information to warrant worry about the puppet scenario. There are signs the Trump campaign was involved in coordinating this release of hacked information – then-advisor Carter Page’s trips and meetings in Moscow, and Russian statements that they were in touch with the campaign. And of course, Trump publicly called on the Russian government to continue hacking Hillary Clinton’s computers during a televised campaign appearance. His campaign dismissed it as a joke; it's not clear everyone did. It may be too much to say that the Kremlin and Russian secret services put Trump on the path to seeking the presidency, but they certainly contributed to getting him there – even perhaps, to their surprise.
Since the elections, various senior Russian officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, have asserted that they’ve had ongoing conversations with the Trump camp. Trump spokesperson Heather Hicks has denied this. If the Russians officials in this "he said / she said" game aren't lying, it raises the question about what they are discussing or planning.
We know, per Donald Trump, Jr., that Russians make up a significant amount of the family business. What we don’t know is how much Russian money is involved, and what Russian money. How did Donald Trump get out of debt? To whom does he owe money? Who provides the collateral for his loans? Is he beholden to Russian oligarchs and banks who are under the thumb of the Kremlin and Russian security services?
If these relationships do exist, the basic foreign policy implication is that Donald Trump as president will seek to accommodate Vladimir Putin's objectives: equal status between the United States and Russia; a 19th century sphere of influence for Russia in Europe/Eurasia/Central Asia; and acceptance of brutal non-democratic dictators even in the face of their people's nonviolent attempts to force them from power. And the United States is unlikely to retaliate against Russian cyberattacks, and may not maintain strong deterrence against Russian violations of air, sea and space protocols for military behavior.
In Europe, this would mean no further NATO enlargement and no military or other assistance to non-NATO states like Ukraine and Georgia that are occupied in part by Russian forces and trying to maintain their political and economic sovereignty. It would likely arrest the movement toward democracy and free-market capitalism. In the Middle East it would mean letting the brutal dictator Bashar al Asad try to rule Syria by force, with Russia and Iran helping.
The result would be more insecurity – Eastern and Western European states would start looking out for their own interests, arming unilaterally and weakening NATO and further dividing the European Union. With collective security diminished, and the chance of American resistance significantly reduced, Russia may be tempted to test NATO countries by sending security forces into the Baltics to protect ethnic Russians or by conducting risky military maneuver in NATO air or maritime space. If conflict were to break out among major European powers – collectively our top trading partner, and individually our closest allies – U.S. basic interests would be impacted. If America chose to side with Russia over our European allies, that would be a repudiation of U.S. interests and values. In the Syria, the final crushing of the conventional opposition forces would spell the dawn of a bitter and destabilizing insurgency against Assad, Iran and Russia.
For the homeland, the failure to respond to Russian cyber-interference and to establish and maintain military deterrence against attacks on U.S. military and civilian infrastructure will make us less safe. There will be a greater temptation for the Russian government to use cyber and other means to disrupt normal life in America for smaller stakes, like getting sanctions lifted or retaliating against the Magnitsky human rights law. Being cooperative in this area will only make America weak, coupled as it will be by mutual distrust between our militaries and the conventional and nuclear balances between us.
For a lot of Americans, this whole Russian-intervention scenario may seem farfetched. And political scientists and former policymakers like myself know not to jump to conclusions based on a few data points, and on the significant questions Donald Trump has refused to answer. It is also possible that the somber professional cabinet members like Jim Mattis and John Kelly will successfully advocate for U.S. interests, and the Trump circle's evident impulses to accommodate Putin will be effectively countered or moderated.
Nonetheless, there's already plenty to worry about. Nothing like this level of foreign interference in American democracy has even been imagined in modern political history. So before we even get to interagency debates on Russia, before the president-elect takes the oath, the American people deserve to know what the intelligence community knows about his business history and entanglements with Russians and Russia.
The intelligence community, especially the CIA, will be loath to reveal too much lest their sources and methods are compromised. But if our worst fears are realized, Trump has knowingly benefited from Kremlin help, those means may be jeopardized by the next administration anyway. His team would be motivated to eliminate means of collection and analysis and of informing others in the executive branch or Congress. As the public and legislators press for more clarity, there are a handful of specific questions they need to focus on:
1) What did Russia do to interfere in U.S. elections?
2) Did any American citizens collude with Russia to assist in the Kremlin’s efforts to interfere in U.S. elections? If so how, and were Trump associates, or Trump himself, aware?
3) Have Russians given or loaned Donald Trump and/or his businesses money, or provided collateral or other financial assistance to Donald Trump?
If the answers yield further evidence that the president-elect is indebted to the Russian government or individuals with Kremlin ties, the intelligence community and policy officials should also begin disclosing what they know about whether Trump's associates have been in contact with Russian officials, and what they've been discussing.
Continued......
Everyone who have slight doubts how quickly Rex Tillerson will lift #Russian sanctions must watch this video.
https://twitter.com/gkates/status/808302618585997312
Rex Tillerson this year, in Russia, on sanctions and his "friend" Sechin:
"That's a question for the government"
Trump is doing more to actually damage shareholders which many "workers" are these days or their pension funds are invested in the stock market.....
Trump tweets about Boeing/AF1 and their share value dropped 1%.......
Trump tweets today about the high cost of the F35 and Lockheed shares drop 3%.....
AND Trump really cares about the average manufacturing jobs at these companies??????
Trump has never apparently worked in companies where employees invest in their company shares as a retirement concept.....it is called destruction of shareholder value...
BUT Trump championed the common man....????
Something sorely missing in Trump...he urgently needs to know when to simply shut up.....
U.S. Republican President-elect Donald Trump on Monday reiterated his questions about U.S. intelligence reports that Russia intervened in the presidential election on his behalf through targeted hacking.
In two posts on Twitter, Trump also suggested that politics played a role in the reports that emerged late last week.
"Can you imagine if the election results were the opposite and WE tried to play the Russia/CIA card. It would be called conspiracy theory!" he wrote.
A second tweet said, "Unless you catch "hackers" in the act, it is very hard to determine who was doing the hacking. Why wasn't this brought up before election?"
ONE would think that if one has nothing to hide and run from...Trump would be screaming to the mountains "find out what the heck happened"...instead he is defensive and pushing back as if he has something serious to hide.....
Trump URGENTLY needs to learn what the Ukrainians have learned about Putin and what he says since 2014.....
If it looks like a duck and hacks like a duck but denies it's a duck, it's a Russian duck.
NOW the US IC is in full counter mode ........and Trump is not even in office yet...
Trump's Dismissal of CIA Not Acceptable - Gen Hayden
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/network-take/president-elects-dis…
It's on.
"To have an assessment dismissed, frankly, because it was unpleasant? That’s just not acceptable."
BUT WAIT...Trumps public Fox statement was "I am smart"......
This cat can't be walked back now. Trump finally went too far with his Putinmania. GOP+IC revolt is in full swing.
https://twitter.com/intlspectator/status/808074258429583361
Am anticipating that in the next several weeks US MSM will be entertained by a number of high level leaked European security service reports about Russian hacking from both the German BND and the UK MI6....as the Europeans want the average US voter to fully understand the depth and breath of the Russian hacking activities both in Europe and inside the US.....
ESPECIALLY since they can no longer "trust the incoming US President" due to his close association to potential Russian intel services.....AND his believe he knows more about intelligence than the European intel agencies who have been monitoring the Russians as long as the CIA has.....
Gloomy, tough, but important analysis by Joschka Fischer Goodbye to the West by Joschka Fischer via @ProSyn
http://prosyn.org/pJGemTq
Fischer has been a very good judge of US actions.....so this should be read and the reread...as it the current view by many here in Europe....they firmly believe what Trump and company has expounded on in past 18 months is in fact his FP.....
Anyone having seen his latest China and Russian denial moves can easily now see his FP forming especially with coupled with his selections.
REALLY read and then reread again and again and then ask yourself is the Trump pick of Tillerson a good one for the US....????
This @juliaioffe story on what it takes to be "a friend of Putin" explains all you need to know about Tillerson.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/rex-tillerson-exxon-puti…
Written by someone who fully understands Russia...maybe she should be the next SoS....
WONDER if Trump got this intel briefing????
BUT WAIT..."he is smarter" than all of the intel analysts thus he already knew this....
NEWSWATCH: “#Nuclear War Is No Longer “Unthinkable” for #Russia; #Putin is warning the US.....
http://russialist.org/newswatch-nuclear-war-is-no-longer-unthinkable-fo…
…
MAN...it is truly a great thing that Trump distrusts the US IC and their analysts and that he does not need daily intel briefings......AS "he is so smart"...his own words BTW...
Otherwise he would haven briefed that China flew it new nuclear bomber into the South china sea area as a definite show of force and a clear military message to his so called accidental Taiwan call............
Good thing he's not wasting time on those intel briefings.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-bomber-flight-send-m…
…
Right now based on nominations the Trump inner circle has far more "Russian friends" than "NATO focused friends"....we must exclude Kelly as he is DHS and has nothing to do with Russian FP decisions and we must exclude Mattis as he has only one voice and must bend to Trump and his natsec advisors...when it comes to their "Russian friends"......
So just how is Trump suppose to deal with this simple undeniable fact of current FP life in eastern/central Europe????
The combined Russian-Donbas forces have more tanks..than the armed forces of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK.
http://dailysignal.com/2016/12/09/eastern-europe-is-a-powder-keg-ready-…
China Foreign Ministry says it is "seriously concerned" about Trump's "One China policy" comment...
AGAIN..."fasten those seat belts"....this is going to get rocky before even 20 JAN 2917.....
THIS is what happens when your new President..."thinks he is the smartest person in the room".....and needs no intel briefings....
Trump says U.S. not necessarily bound by 'one China' policy | Fasten your safety belts!
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1400TY
Deutsche Welle: Russia behind hack on German parliament, paper reports
http://dlvr.it/MsQj0n
I knew this two months ago as I was allowed to review the forensics data and compared it to the Russian DNC hacks and the US private security company released forensics data.......backed by another US private security company....
BUT WAIT......Trump already knew this to be true as he stated..."because he is smarter" than all of us in this business.
IT hacking is actually similar to the days of morse code ...every operator had a particular finger movement that indicated who he was ...hacking is no different....one just has to understand the "digital finger prints of the hacker" and or hacking organization......and then have deep knowledge about the dark net...which I know Trump has because he is "smarter than we are"....his own words....
MAN...can Trump lie with the best of them....if he truly does not believe that it is possible to determine "after the fact" that a nation state sponsor of hacking did in fact attack something or someone....
Denying Trump’s Denial, US Intel Chief Says There’s More Evidence of Russian Hacking
http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2016/10/denying-trumps-denial-clappe…
THEN I personally am inviting Trump on his own dime as he has the money... to sit next to me and watch me and my 60 employees from five countries defend against Russian...Iranian and Chinese nation state hacking attempts on an hourly basis....this will not even address the criminal side of hacking...
I can show him how we retrace step for step who was behind something and that it is getting harder and harder to "hide" your attack......
Russian hackers are by far head and shoulders above even Silicon Valley types...therein lies our core problem...we urgently need well educated and experienced white hats....not some blue collar Rust Belt worker. MIT has a hard time keeping up with them as well and that currently says a lot....
With a little luck I could show Trump in "real time" any number of global hacking attempts from Russian hackers...print out the results and he could then take them home for evening reading.....
BUT WAIT this is what he truly does not understand about "free trade"....my equipment is German built to ensure security but BASED on US ingenuity/know how built software we have modified...
To seriously challenge known facts.....is troubling to say the least because facts are what they are...simply facts.....
THEREIN lies the character flaw of Trump...."as he stated" "I do not need intel briefings because I am smart".....
Sorry to say my youngest employee (22) is far "smarter than Trump"....but he would never state that in a public interview....
SECONDLY this is exactly why Trump will never resolve the employment issues in the US Rust Belt.....
I could have moved by entire business to the US Midwest but where would I be able to find the 60 quality employees with the education, experience and languages I needed to start work immediately...not in say five years in trying to ramp up blue collar HS educated employees....yes I can train them in a slow and steady fashion....but then I would have never been successful immediately.
WHO would have even moved to the Midwest from say CA or MA or NY if they had the experience?....I would have had to pay 3 times the normal ranges just to get people to think about coming to the Midwest......this new generation of IT personnel is modern...well educated...world open and want to be in cities not the rural country side....
THAT is why Trump will fail in his promise to create millions of good paying manufacturing jobs in say the Midwest......or the rest of the Rust Belt....
Again my invitation to Berlin is open to him....just him and no advisors around him to color the results of the experience....one on one so to speak....the best way to learn....
BUT he will never come....
Ex-Russia Today Anchor: 'The Goal of Russian Media is to Undermine Faith in Our Institutions'
http://www.mediaite.com/online/ex-russia-today-anchor-the-goal-of-russi…
Bill.....what is troubling is not the money nor influence attempts...it is the clear use and proven by my end of monitoring the Russian IT activities from Berlin.
Social media drives a lot of the Trump voters as they have admitted in countless interviews on why they voted .....and over 35% of all tweets supporting Trump which they viewed was driven by a Russian trolling company of 16 year olds from Macedonia....35%...........and even Trump made note of the twitter numbers.......
Then coupled with the sheer volume of social media sites ie blogsites and websites pushing "fake news"......
We can track those sites much as we have tracked via a network analysis tool twitter used for the anti Ukraine trolling and it would massively surprise many in the US who was the two central driving sites of much of the fake news....Infowars and Breitbart.com who it can be proven "picked up" the stories from twitter and FB.....
Coupling the use of information warfare with specific hacking to reinforce that information war is what is totally new.....
Couple these two elements with black money flowing from US lobbying firms to selected proRussian friendly Congressmen and Senators and who needs "influence"....
Couple that with a so called President who stated yesterday in Fox..."I am so smart I do not need the daily intel briefing as much does not change in their words" and who has openly questioned CIA analysts...
WHAT he does not admit nor will never admit...he is not that smart and the world changes hourly...that is why there is an Intel Indications and Warning Team since 6 Dec 1941....so no President will never be taken by surprise by anyone....
Therein lies the core danger of Trump......
If you read Russian...this is from the Putin spokesperson who foresees great things with the proposed SoS Tillerson....the Exxon CEO....
Алексей Пушков
Verified account
@Alexey_Pushkov
Выбор Тиллерсона - сенсация. Это бизнесмен, по определению прагматик, да еще и с большим опытом работы с Россией. Трамп продолжает удивлять.
So convince me that the CEO for Exxon if SoS would do something that would rock Exxon's current attempt to do a 500B USDs deal with Russia and that he would continue the use of sanctions against Russia....since he is close friends with Putin.....
You cannot convince me he would rock his own former company....
Case in point (note, not from a wacko right wing news source):
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-company-pledged-2-million-to-clinto…
Chinese company pledged $2 million to Clinton Foundation in 2013
"Campaign finance laws prohibit foreign interests from investing in U.S. elections to prevent foreigners from buying political influence at home, but those rules don't apply to the Clinton Foundation. Bill Allison, senior policy analyst at the Sunlight Foundation, a campaign finance watchdog group, says the Clinton foundation is a unique non-profit that can't be separated from the US political system."
Plenty of questionable practices on both sides of the aisle in the emerging 21st Century political environment. I'm not defending our attacking either side, rather simply stating that, "NASA, we have a problem."
Let's review the situation through a more sober lens.
We had a choice between electing a peach (used sarcastically) if we elected Trump, a rotten apple if we elected Clinton. It seems most Americans agreed that they didn't have a good choice, but they still had to make a choice. Did foreign influence really make a difference?
Foreign influence is nothing new, it has been happening for decades (and of course we play the same game with other countries). What I read in various articles is that the intelligence community agrees that Russia attempted to shape the election, but they had little to no impact on the outcome. You of all people should know the former USSR did the same, and they generally weren't effective.
Clinton's campaign received millions of dollars from foreign donors via her foundation, who she allegedly used her position as Secretary of State to coerce/encourage denotations. That aspect of foreign intervention in the election is conveniently side stepped by the left leaning MSM. The squeaky clean candidates didn't last long unfortunately. Apparently they weren't dirty enough to be entertaining.
Review the bidding, foreigners (both states and individuals, this is not limited to the Russians) use information and money to influence U.S. and other nations elections. Many European and other foreign leaders made comments intended to influence the U.S. public, mostly against Trump. The U.S. government and individuals (especially via NGOs) does the same in other countries. The means for doing this have increased based on greater integration due to globalization and information technology.
To date there is little indication that this interference has effectively influenced the outcome of any election; however, it will become a greater risk over time, so I do agree that attacking the intelligence community is wrong headed. Law makers need to deal with this aggressively, but unfortunately it is the law makers and Presidential candidates who benefit from this. Do they have the moral courage to fix it? Will the American public hold them accountable, or will this fade from the news all too quickly?
New: fears of Trump's reprisals against intelligence analysts grow as legislators warn against retaliation.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/11/intelligence-agencies-c…
A remarkable breach has emerged between Trump and intelligence agencies over claims that Russia hacked the election
http://nyti.ms/2hj4joe
That Donald Trump is mocking USA intel on Russia (and now it appears, in split with GOP) is the most troubling sign something bad here.
If not-yet-POTUS challenges Congress -- incl many Republicans -- to a game of chicken over Russia, he will lose.... #BIGLY.
Dumb move, Don.
Russian Official Brags About Trump Victory: 'Russia Won' US Election
http://reverbpress.com/politics/russian-official-brags-about-trump-vict…
So wait...the CIA says Russia messed with our election to help Trump win and Trump attacks...the CIA?
Not Russia? He goes after the CIA?
A report on Trump's extensive cultivation of the Kremlin as far back as 1986-1988. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1988/12/03/trump-and-t… …
✔ @nytpolitics Trump is questioning not only analytic conclusions from intelligence agencies but also their underlying facts. http://nyti.ms/2hxNzsz
Talk about a true possibility of "conflict of interests"......as CEO of Exxon he was pushing a 500B USD deal with the main Russian oil company under a fully controlled Putin friendly oligarch......so why would he be interested in maintaining and or ever leveraging sanctions on Russia which would directly impact Exxon???
Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State would guarantee Russia has a willing accomplice in the President's Cabinet.
AND there is still no "connections to Russia before the election"?????
BREAKING: Group of Republican senators 'plan on giving Trump hell' over Russia relations and nomination of Tillerson as Secretary of State
Today's A1: The inside story of Trump's Taiwan call, months in the making.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-taiwan-phone-call-was-we… …
AND this is coming from the family of the Trump national security advisor who has also tweeted various conspiracy theories during the election......
A better article about Flynn & Co | Incoming national security adviser's son spreads fake news about D.C. pizza shop
http://politi.co/2h96v4s
So can he will necessary tell the difference between reality and the altered state of reality.....?????
The only difference between those that rage on/in the internet/social media and the national security advisor to the President is a "security clearance"....????
Sad.....