Small Wars Journal

What Happens if We Leave Afghanistan

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 5:58pm

Afghan Women and the Return of the Taliban - Aryn Baker, Time

Afghan Women: Fearing a Taliban Future - Alissa Rubin, New York Times

Afghan Women Fear Loss of Modest Gain - Alissa Rubin, New York Times

The Plight of Afghan Women: A Disturbing Picture - Richard Stengel, Time

Living Under the Taliban Threat - Jodi Bieber Photography, Time

Comments

B"H

The following is from a book chapter that I am writing about the pre 9/11 Taliban.

Readers can see an earlier version, without notes, links, appendices, graphics or contact information at the url above. I did not put it there. Or, for the latest 30,000+ word pdf draft -- with maps, charts, links, notes and appendices, contact me at vantran613@yahoo.com.

"What Happens If We Leave Afghanistan/ Afghan Women And the Return Of The Taliban"

On page 23, col. 3, the author writes:

"Under the Taliban, who ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, women accused of adultery were stoned to death."

The plain sense of this is that it was only necessary to accuse a woman of adultery and she was summarily stoned to death - that men were not punished and that there were no trials or rules of evidence to speak of. If this were said about Jews or Blacks or Americans or Hungarians - we would understand that it is hate speech. In the case of the Taliban we assume that it is true -- that women were singled out for persecution and publicly murdered for nothing. So its not hate speech. Its just like saying sewer rats are dirty.

This kind of speech has primed the people of two continents - North America and Europe - to make war against the Taliban and kill them by the tens of thousands.

We, who are concerned about hate speech, and its consequences have not taken notice. We think that what we heard about the Taliban - particularly when it comes to the abuse of women - is true. But its not. Most of the bad stuff that weve heard about them is demonstrable nonsense and our bigotry is so intense and so refined that we dont even bother to check.

The Taliban did execute people for adultery - by stoning them to death in public - but a more accurate - and less hate-filled statement would be:

Under the Taliban, who, in the summer of 2001 were ruling provinces with close to 95% of the in-country population of Afghanistan,

a man and woman found guilty in a court of law of committing adultery were publicly stoned to death together. However, this was only done after a trial in which four reliable male witnesses testified in court that they saw the two accused physically going at it.

As a result of this extremely high standard of evidence, there were only about a dozen people - half of them men and half women - who were found guilty of adultery and executed. There were no executions for adultery of men or women in Kabul - the relatively cosmopolitan capital city (where the Time Magazine reporter is writing from) - which the Taliban controlled for five years. There were also no executions for adultery in Shiite dominated Herat - which the Taliban controlled for 6 years. These two cities together had 13 million person-years under the Taliban - with no executions for adultery. Once it became known that the Taliban were actually executing habitual adulterers, the more sophisticated adulterers who wished to continue - and preserve their lives - stopped doing it in a way that could be readily observed by four reliable male witnesses.

The overall rate of judicial executions under the Taliban was about 1/3 per capita per year of what it was under Bush in Texas.

This was also about 1/10th the rate in Saudi Arabia - in the year 2000 - the year that the Taliban wiped out opium poppy growing without any executions maimings or floggings--and without anticipatory hoarding.

RH (not verified)

Tue, 08/03/2010 - 6:41pm

The reality of it all....is that our continued presence now...next year or a decade from now will make little difference to the cultural norms of Afghanistan. It is what it is...in western cultures, this horrific event is at the top of the human rights abuses.

All remember, this act was somehow justified under Islamic law..sharia law. The accurate name for Afghanistan is the.."Islamic Republic of Afghanistan"..not the "Republic of Afghanistan"..or just "Afghanistan"..but with the word "Islamic" as part of it formal name as a country.

As we approach over nine (9) years of "lost" strategies ( can you say..Iraqi Freedom), strategies of "winning the hearts and minds"..(can you say Korengal Valley)..of protecting the population..to training the ANA and ANP (now into its 6th year)...we have very little to show for the blood and guts of those lost or wounded in Afghanistan.

Did not someone in the best and the brightest in the Bush era administration note on the map..that Iran is to the west..and Pakistan is to the east and the "Stan's" or to the north. None of these country are or were exactly deep and enduring friends with the US (can you say (infidels"). A land locked country based on tribal and clan alliances...a border with Pakistan with some 45 million Pastun..with about 1/2 of the total in Afghanistan..and the other in Pakistan. The border ..you say...the tribes do not adhere or respect the border..only their tribal alliances.

All this we know. But, let us remind ourselves that going back to 1962 to 1973, in the Vietnam War..we had some of the best and the brightest..we also had a changing strategy....and all in all lost over 58,000 men and some 250,000 WIA. Did we make mistakes...yes, big time mistakes that most military and historical authors clearly point out now.

So, what is the point: We make mistakes...clearly we have made mistakes in Afghanistan and as such we must fine tune the mission to what it was in the early days....to make certain terrorist camps with a strategic threat to the US or our partners is never again able to strike.

Aside from that mission....most others may become less visible based on the realities of the culture, tribalism and religion of Afghanistan.

Paktia Khost, Ghazni Provinces/2003

omarali50

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 1:52pm

I agree with Peter. This atrocity actually happened while the US is IN Afghanistan, so its hard to see why this picture says anything positive about the mission. Having said that, I think we should avoid the opposite conclusion, that leaving or staying has no impact on events. The fact is, leaving WILL make it worse, not just for women but for all Afghans. Whether the current mode of "staying" is the best use of resources and whether the US taxpayer should commit trillions to that end is another question, but that things will get worse if the US leaves without establishing a reasonably secure Afghanistan is a no-brainer.

oldpapajoe (not verified)

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 9:02am

I agree with Dayuhan. The photo of the girl merely makes visible to those unfamiliar with radical Islam, the reality of radical interpretations of Sharia law. What is sad is that American liberals (who claim to speak for all American woman) who fear for Afghan women fail to see that the central issue is this: Will moderate Muslims fall to radical Muslims worldwide. Will Sharia law, as interpreted by radical Muslims cleric impose its view of the world and salvation on the Muslim community worldwide. Non Muslims will have a "problem" should the radicals win the day--if you think this is not the case I suggest you read "The Hadith" [at least those portions in English].

Maybe I'm just old and cynical, but I think this is more about American women than Afghan women. Looks to me like an effort to rally enthusiasm for the war among a key constituency of the sitting government.

pjmunson

Sun, 08/01/2010 - 4:34pm

I know that the title refers to an article, but since it is suggestively linked to the picture as a fear-mongering device, I think that a more factual caption would be "What happens while we're in Afghanistan and will continue to happen WHEN we leave." Even if we stay here for 15 years, crude and reactionary things are going to happen. Far more "Westernized" and "advanced" countries near Afghanistan have had recent incidents that could produce similar covers. It is a poor and emotionally shallow argument for a strategic course of action.

Bruce Reidel's unfortunate op-ed today similarly and irresponsibly heightened the drama behind the debate on Afghanistan by saying that "cut[ting] and run[ning]... would give Al Qaeda a world-changing victory, jeopardize the stability of Afghanistan and Pakistan and increase the threat to the American homeland." Whatever course of action the U.S. chooses to pursue in the coming years, to bill a possible outcome as a "world-changing victory" for Al Qaeda without further elaboration in a newspaper op-ed is the height of fear-mongering irresponsibility. The image conjured to the general public is that an eventual U.S. withdrawal will send AQ along the road to state-like status (like the world-changing international Communist threat) or re-establishment of the caliphate. Reidel knows better (or should), so his wording is inexcusable.

Responsible analysts need to recage this discussion in much more appropriate strategic terms and provide an honest assessment of potential end states without implying that atrocities like the one on the Time cover aren't happening now and won't happen in the event of a "victory", or that a decision to withdraw at some point in the coming years will hand AQ a "world-changing" victory. Comments like Reidel's are accomplishing AQ's delusionally overstated PR campaign for them.