Trump’s Foreign Policy Philosophy Hard to Pin Down
Masood Farivar, Voice of America
Is President-elect Donald Trump a foreign policy realist or idealist? Is he bringing Richard Nixon’s hard-edged realpolitik to his foreign policy or following in the footsteps of the more idealistic Ronald Reagan?
The question has become a parlor game among Washington's policy pundits.
Trump’s frequent invocation of Reagan’s “peace through strength” mantra and campaign pledge to rebuild America’s “depleted” military has invited comparisons to the Republican icon credited with winning the Cold War.
His advocacy of a foreign policy based on America’s national interests has led some to liken it to Nixonian realism, while his aversion to foreign interventions has won him the label of a non-interventionist and even isolationist.
Don’t Fence Trump In
Trump has professed no great power doctrine and his advisers discourage applying labels to his vision of the world.
“I’m not going to be put into the little academic, graduate school box because I think it doesn’t suit, and it doesn’t apply in a rapidly changing world,” said K.T. McFarland, Trump’s incoming deputy national security adviser, when asked to describe the Trump doctrine.
While Trump’s call for “peace through strength” reflects Reagan’s view of deterrence, “there are parts of Nixon and (Henry) Kissinger that Donald Trump has also advocated,” McFarland said at the U.S. Institute of Peace, alluding to Trump’s interest-based approach to world affairs.
Trump’s Speeches
A foreign policy neophyte, Trump has shied away from declaring any grand foreign strategy during the campaign, though he did give two major speeches devoted to foreign policy and national security.
In the first speech, delivered at the realist-leaning Center for the National Interest in Washington in April, Trump outlined what he called a “coherent foreign policy based on American interests” and called for “getting out of nation building,” creating stability and quashing “radical Islam.”
“Containing the spread of radical Islam must be a major foreign policy goal of the United States and indeed the world,” Trump said. “Events may require the use of military force, but it’s also a philosophical struggle, like our long struggle in the Cold War.”
In the second speech, at Youngstown University in Ohio in August, Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric about terror, warning countries around the world that they’d be judged based on their commitment to the U.S. goal of fighting terrorism.
“All actions should be oriented around this goal, and any country which shares this goal will be our ally,” Trump told a rally of supporters.
‘Strategic Surprise’
It was a theme that Trump would repeat, in one iteration or another, throughout the campaign, but his advisers say Trump’s pre- and post-election pronouncements on foreign policy, often delivered off the cuff, should not be read as policy prescriptions.
“Actually, he didn’t say a lot about foreign policy and national security on the campaign trail, and what he did say really doesn’t add up to a policy,” said James Carafano, director of foreign policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation who advises the Trump transition team on foreign affairs. “That’s very frustrating because the people want to know what’s this guy going to do.”
With the new administration yet to take office, McFarland, too, cautioned that Trump’s foreign policy is in an early stage of development.
“That’s what a new administration does: It takes time to rethink things and to come up with policies,” she said.
If history is any guide, Trump could quickly find himself facing a set of foreign policy crises different from the issues he campaigned on. Political scientists have a term for an unexpected world event that drives a new president into uncharted territory: “strategic surprise.”
For former President George W. Bush, who campaigned on pursuing a “humble foreign policy,” the strategic surprise came September 11, 2001.
For President Barack Obama, who vowed to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the “Arab Spring” protests in North Africa and the Middle East marked a strategic surprise, leaving his administration more deeply mired in the region than he’d hoped.
What international crisis might alter the trajectory of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda has become a guessing game, with the number of scenarios exceeded only by the variety of foreign policy labels attributed to Trump.
A game-changing terrorist attack on American interests is one possible candidate. Another contender: an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launch by North Korea.
“I think the world is not necessarily going to allow President Trump to do everything he’s planned on,” said Blaise Misztal, director of the national security program at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. “I think you’re going to see a triangulation between what he’s said, what he’s advised to do, and what is actually feasible on the world stage.”
Flip Flopping on Issues
While Trump has flip flopped on some issues, NATO and torturing terrorists, for example, he’s held steady on others. Among them: terrorism, trade, China and Russia.
In the weeks since his election, he’s reiterated his pledge to make terrorism a focus of his foreign policy, talked tough on trade, challenged the “One China” policy, and iterated again a desire to reset relations with Russia even as he embraced intelligence findings that Moscow interfered in last year’s presidential election.
Brian Katulis of Center for American Progress, a liberal Washington think tank, said the “most radical shift” Trump will likely undertake will be “engagement and involvement” with Russia, something Obama unsuccessfully attempted during his first term in office.
But former CIA director Michael Hayden said Trump is likely to reconsider his approach to Russia once he learns from intelligence agencies and allies that Russia and Syria are not committed to fighting IS.
“I’m personally very, very skeptical of any convergence between American and Russian interests in this part of the world,” Hayden said. “In fact, I’d offer the view that American and Russian interests are actually heading in different directions.”
Another major change: downplaying a postwar American foreign policy tradition of promoting democracy and freedom around the world.
“Trump has signaled as a candidate and in the transition a proclivity to appreciate authoritarian and repressive leaders around the world,” Katulis said. “And this may be the biggest departure that is historic, that there really won’t be as much of a values-based approach that focuses on human rights democracy and freedom in other countries. And that I think puts the United States itself on shaky territory.”
But McFarland played down those concerns, saying “the three bedrocks of (postwar) American foreign policy” — American leadership, American values and international alliances — will remain under the Trump administration.
Unpredictability
There is usually some continuity between administrations on foreign policy, but “that rule actually may not apply under Trump,” Katulis said.
“We’re dealing with something here that is just fundamentally different and off the charts,” Katulis explained.
That 'something' is Trump’s well-known unpredictability. Trump has criticized President Obama for telegraphing his policy moves and has vowed to remain unpredictable. But experts say unpredictability can be dangerous in the international arena where both allies and adversaries expect a certain degree of predictability from the United States.
"Predictability is the cornerstone of deterrence," said Clarke. "You need to be predictable if you’re the United states, both in what your allies know you’ll do and in what your adversaries know you’ll do and how you’ll respond."
Comments
Trump is on another twitter rage deflection attempt from his Russian connections....
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
Did Hillary Clinton ever apologize for receiving the answers to the debate? Just asking!
Notice Trump actually never did apologize for birtherism? Just asking!
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
Such amazing reporting on unmasking and the crooked scheme against us by @foxandfriends. "Spied on before nomination." The real story.
BUT WAIT...this is inherently what Trump...his merry WH band and Fox News does not seem to fully understand......
There are defined IC procedures for unmasking. It is perfectly legal.
So again what is the Trump beef about unmasking OTHER than deflecting and dismissing his own Russian connections????
REMEMBER trump repeatedly stating he was going to "drain the swamp" ANd he would be disconnected from his businesses in order to avoid serious conflicts of interest issues....
WELL on 10 FEB 2017 he changed his so called "trust" when no one was watching in order that he drain profits or sell assets from his companies at his will....
THAT is no long a disconnection from his businesses as he stated he was doing...THUS another outright lie...
Trump’s awesome trust has been revised to explicitly say he can take profits from his biz anytime he wants:
http://propub.li/2ot55Wo
This is now serious especially after learning that those around Trump want "raw intelligence" basically to cherry pick that supports their own political biases so they can then present their world view to Trump using "raw intel to prove their views"....
MUST BE READ especially intel types will fully understand what Hayden is writing about.
Donald Trump Is Undermining Intelligence Gathering
By MICHAEL V. HAYDEN MARCH 9, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/opinion/how-trump-undermines-intelli…
Does this make sense anyone SWC reader and or commenter...we now have a true "shadow DoS based inside the WH" and controlled directly by the current President....
Jared Kushner makes surprise visit to #Iraq (NBC):
•Accompanied with Dunford
•Follows Mattis visit
Tillerson has NOT visited Iraq yet.
"Ok ok, so we send him to Baghdad."
"Right"
"Yank all the translators"
"Oh man"
"Then call & ask for an urgent update"
"We're going to hell"
Apparently the US no longer need any allies.....
Trump: 'Totally' possible for U.S. to address North Korea threat alone -
http://reut.rs/2nLHXPE
TRUMP: 'If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will'
Former CIA chief, SAIS prof, and friend John McLaughlin: "International Leadership Slipping Through America’s Hands"
http://www.ozy.com/pov/why-international-leadership-is-slipping-through…
Tillerson can't just show up to the NATO game, he's gotta play QB, argue
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/30/rex-tillerson-showing-up-at-nato-is…
Tillerson to #NATO: "Fighting terrorism is the top national security priority for US, as it should be for all of us" https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/03/269339.htm#.WN51gF7D0vM… …
Mark Hertling
Verified account
Having spent most of my military career in EU, these SecState comments show an embarrassing lack of understanding of what NATO is/does.
WHAT BOTH trump and Tillerson do not seem to understand is that NATO is not a CT organization but a common defense structure against basically Russia...
Actually in private conversations most NATO DefMin's will tell you defeating IS/AQ is a police and state security services issue not a military issue.
THIS is exactly why there is no Trump FP internal nor external....
YESTERDAY the US taxpayers paid Donald Trump to feed Donald Trump's family in a Donald Trump owned restaurant in a Donald Trump owned hotel...
AND there is no appearance of an "ethnical conflict of interest" going on???
Does that bother anyone else?
Bannon denied owning part of Trump data firm @CamAnalytica. But PFD shows he owns owns $1m-$5m in stock. Now selling
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-26d1-d119-a9ff-27df6d510001
Increasing concern in fp/natsec community that Trump doesn't know, or isn't willing to admit, what he doesn't know.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/opinion/when-the-president-is-ignora…
The Trump and Narravo initiated trade war with EU is now starting....and Germany is already threatening the US with WTO suits and penalties...
AND though it could take up to three years for a WTO decision all penalties are backdated...and the US has often lost in WTO hearings...
Germany criticizes Trump orders on trade deficits, import duty evasion
http://reut.rs/2nrnzBr
Quote:
U.S. President Donald Trump's executive orders on trade deficits and import duty evasion are a sign that Washington plans to move away from free trade and international agreements, German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries said on Saturday.
Trump instructed his administration on Friday to study the causes of U.S. trade deficits and clamp down on countries that abuse trade rules in two executive orders he said would open a new chapter for U.S. workers and businesses.
Zypries said that while the executive orders were initially only reviews, "they show, however, that the U.S. obviously wants to move away from free trade and trade agreements."
"We must seek constructive dialogue and explain that the reasons for the U.S. trade deficit are not just abroad," the minister said, adding that she would raise the issue in talks with U.S. counterparts during a trip to Washington in May.
For years, the United States has been importing more goods from Germany than it exports to Europe's biggest economy, due to the relatively strong competitiveness of German firms and the high demand among U.S. customers for 'Made in Germany' goods.
The resulting U.S. trade deficit with Germany has nearly doubled in the past 10 years from some 28.8 billion euros in 2006 to 49 billion euros in 2016, according to data from Germany's Federal Statistics Office.
Trump's trade adviser Peter Navarro has accused Germany of exploiting other countries through a "grossly undervalued" euro. This sparked a sharp response from German Chancellor Angela Merkel who said the European Central Bank is in charge of the euro and the central bank is a politically independent body.
In a further sign of increased tensions between Germany and the United States, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel urged the European Union on Friday to consider filing a complaint with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against the United States over its plan to impose duties on imports of steel plate from five EU member states.
We have now a President who admitted he does not read...a President who lies and produces fakes news so why would a President then need "intelligence"????
Trump's White House reportedly thinks he needs less analysis of intelligence by experts, per the AP
https://apnews.com/992ae77585fc4956b29328e49a926c62/Trump's-approach-to…
WHEN a sitting US President is seriously ignorant of his own ignorance THEN we as a country are in serious trouble....
EXACTLY what is he afraid of....????
Afraid they might in fact know about is Russian ties...????
Trump and his merry WH band had not stopped bashing Germany and Merkel over refugees ...BUT maybe he should actually listen to her....
The million plus refugees largely from Syria and Iraq has led to the creation of 25,000 well paying follow on city, government and NGO positions....and the 300M Euros in cost per year have been actually a small stimulus plan and the economy is now at the lowest unemployed levels not seen in the last 30 years and the number is still falling.....
AND Merkel's poll numbers are climbing with the ultra Right AfD populist party now at 6.6% in the polls down from 14.3%....
The Economist
✔
@TheEconomist
Among economists, there is near-universal acceptance that immigration generates huge benefits
http://econ.st/2oH4w7a
Cyber expert Clinton Watts: 'You're not putting America first if you're putting out Russian propaganda'
http://ow.ly/MwOY30asDsC
Tillerson demands from NATO spending plan WITHIN TWO months?
http://bigstory.ap.org/ce256f31a023483b8ed5d246abd49290
All he is doing is forcing in the end NATO to go it alone WTHOUT the US....
WHAT is amazing is that NATO sees Russia now as an existential near and mid term threat AND Trump and his merry WH band deny constantly anything to do with Russia....
DOES Tillerson actually fully understand exactly how long it takes to do a firm military budget embedded inside a normal budget with all constraints????
Apparently not...he should ask his SecDef....
APPEARS both he and Trump want a "pay for play".......Tillerson and Trump urgently need to read the German FM statements from yesterday..the US is about to lose for good Germany as a close ally.....
WHICH is what the Su and now Russia has wanted since 1945....AND Trump is doing it form them.....
QUOTE
BRUSSELS (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned NATO allies Friday to boost defense spending or come up with plans to reach the alliance's budget guidelines within two months.
Tillerson, in his first talks with NATO counterparts in Brussels, said that Washington is spending a "disproportionate share" on defense compared with its 27 partners, and that he expects action by the time President Donald Trump meets with other alliance leaders on May 25.
NATO leaders pledged in 2014 to halt defense spending cuts and move toward a guideline target of 2 percent of gross domestic product within a decade. Only four other nations currently meet the target: Britain, Estonia, Greece and Poland.
"Our goal should be to agree at the May leaders meeting that by the end of the year all allies will have either met the pledge guidelines or will have developed plans that clearly articulate how, with annual milestone progress commitments, the pledge will be fulfilled," Tillerson told the ministers.
Tillerson did not say what would happen if European allies and Canada fail to respect their pledges. During election campaigning, Trump suggested that he might not come to the defense of those allies who do not do their fair share, rocking allies near an increasingly aggressive Russia, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
However, Tillerson sought to calm any fears, saying Friday that "we understand that a threat against one of us is a threat against all of us, and we will respond accordingly. We will uphold the agreements we have made to defend our allies.
The United States is by far NATO's most powerful ally. It spends more on defense than all the others combined; 3.61 percent of GDP in 2016, according to NATO estimates, although U.S. spending, too, has tapered off in recent years.
Germany spent 1.19 percent of its overall budget on defense last year.
But German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said it would be "unrealistic" for his country to hike spending from 35 billion euros ($37 billion) a year to over 70 billion euros, which would see Berlin allocate more to defense than Russia currently.
"I don't know a politician in Germany who believes that this would be achievable or even desirable," Gabriel said.
He said security is also about crisis prevention, not just combat, and noted that Germany spends a lot of money on refugees who arrive because military interventions have failed.
Seven countries — including Canada, Italy and Spain — would have to virtually double their spending to reach the target.
Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said that beyond money, "it's also really important to look at capabilities and what countries are actually doing."
"We really feel that we're doing our share," she said, highlighting Canada's troop deployment to Latvia to help deter Russian aggression.
Tillerson also urged NATO to do more to fight the Islamic State group and other extremists, notably by countering IS online messaging and propaganda.
NATO has fought insurgents in Afghanistan, and is training Iraqi officers so that local forces can make a strong stand against extremists. There is no appetite to deploy troops in counter-terrorism operations. Allies believe that the international coalition against IS should be leading combat operations, not NATO.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the lesson learned from operations in Afghanistan, but also in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, is that "in the long run it is much better to fight terrorism and project stability by training local forces, building local security institutions, instead of NATO deploying a large number of combat troops."
How is it possible that the Trump WH...Pence and Trump as well did not know Flynn was a paid "foreign agent for Turkey" WHEN social media and a few MSM was constantly pointing this out during the campaign and afterwards and that he was in federal violation for not registering as such....WHICH we now know since he finally registered in order to avoid prosecution...
SO who is exactly now lying in the WH?...Trump and or Pence OR actually both now....
Trump has actually been asked a number of questions around this and did not answer them...
So now what?
Reference the Bloomberg article on US troops in Manbij in SWJ....
Sometimes one has to wonder just where US MSM is these days.....
I have been posting well over a year now on the Syrian thread and first blasted Obama for his apparent non understanding of his Kurdish proxy YPG/SDF which is just a fig leaf covering the US named terror group PKK a communist insurgency fighting Turkey for over 40 years.
If you also read the Syrian thread you will see this particular event unfolding several weeks ago complete with battle reports..photos and videos...
Right now under the Trump WH US SOF and USAF are directly supporting the following groups....
1. Russian troops and providing CAS for Russian and Assad mercenary troops
2. Hezbollah....an Iranian supported and US named terror group fighting also Israel
3. Iraqi Shia militia KH or Iraqi Hezbollah...a US named terror group that killed Americans in Iraq
4. SDF...the US so called Arab Kurdish proxy....which fights under YPG the Kurdish fig leaf for the US named terror group PKK a Kurdish communist group fighting Turkey for over the last 40 years...
5. IRGC troops from a number of their units
6. Assad troops...a dictator using ethnic cleansing, genocide and starvation to cleanse Sunni's...
While the article alludes to possible clashes..they have been ongoing since over a week now and the US SOF is being caught in the middle of the fighting which will not stop as the Turkish supported Syrian opposition views Russia...Iranian troops and Shia militias as their true enemies as they are in fact occupying Syria...
Turkey also feels basically lied to my both Russia and especially the US who told them multiple times the US would push SDF/YGB out of Manbij which they view rightly as being Arab not Kurdish....
WHY Trump wants to do joint ops against a NATO partner is truly strange for a US President....
Maybe Bloomberg would be well advised to get involved and report far more on this topic as it is going to get bad in the coming days and weeks...AND US SOF lives are at stake....
Meanwhile Roger Stone who was at 19 part of the Nixon dirty tricks group and who was sentenced for those activities.....
Meanwhile, Roger Stone gives an interview to notorious Kremlin bullhorn RT, complains of Trump Tower "break-ins," says Comey should be fired
Stone continues to lie even to the largest Russian propaganda outlet Russia Today....
Roger Stone tells RT that the DOJ has to get the President's permission before obtaining a FISA warrant.
He has absolutely no understanding of the FISA process...BUT the Russians eat it up.....
Fmr MI6 agent who authored the TrumpRussia dossier returns to work. Senate testimony likely next...
http://occupydemocrats.com/2017/03/08/british-spy-wrote-trump-blackmail…
WHY does DoD state this and not DoS and or the Trump WH??????
US military accuses Russia of deploying land-based cruise missile in violation of Cold War-era nuclear arms treaty.
https://www.stripes.com/us-general-says-russia-has-deployed-banned-miss…
AGAIN Trump is silent when it comes to Russia and Putin's violations of INF....
SO now WHO in the Trump empire...Trump WH and even Trump himself has blatantly lied to the US public in front of running cameras that there ae no Russian connections?????
AND the WikiLeaks GRU/FSB CIA leak was not supporting Trump personally????
Trump campaign quietly OK'd Carter Page's July 2016 Moscow trip, former adviser tells @kenvogel @JoshMeyerDC
REMEMBER the following:
You know, the visit where Page's speech was so pro-Putin that a video of it got top billing at an SVR-run website.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/carter-page-russia-trip-trump-cor…
QUOTE
Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski approved foreign policy adviser Carter Page’s now-infamous trip to Moscow last summer on the condition that he would not be an official representative of the campaign, according to a former campaign adviser.
A few weeks before he traveled to Moscow to give a July 7 speech, Page asked J.D. Gordon, his supervisor on the campaign’s National Security Advisory Committee, for permission to make the trip, and Gordon strongly advised against it, Gordon, a retired naval officer, told POLITICO.
Page then emailed Lewandowski and spokeswoman Hope Hicks asking for formal approval, and was told by Lewandowski that he could make the trip, but not as an official representative of the campaign, the former campaign adviser said. The adviser spoke on the condition of anonymity because he has not been authorized to discuss internal campaign matters.
The trip is now a focus of congressional and FBI investigations into Russian influence in the 2016 presidential election.
Lewandowski told POLITICO he did not recall the email exchange with Page, but he did not deny that it occurred.
“Is it possible that he emailed me asking if he could go to Russia as a private citizen?” Lewandowski said Tuesday. “I don’t remember that, but I probably got 1,000 emails a day at that time, and I can’t remember every single one that I was sent. And I wouldn’t necessarily remember if I had a one-word response to him saying he could do something as a private citizen.”
Hicks declined to comment. But a former campaign official said campaign officials did not discuss Page’s planned trip before he left for Moscow.
“No one discussed the trip within the campaign and certainly not with candidate Trump directly,” said the former campaign official.
The official pointed to a July statement from Hicks that declared that Page was in Moscow in a private capacity and was not representing the campaign. That statement came in response to media reports from Moscow about Page’s presence there.
Both Lewandowski and the White House official cast Page as a minor character on the periphery of the campaign, who was a foreign policy adviser in name only.
“I’ve never met or spoken to Carter Page in my life,” Lewandowski said.
Gordon and Page had no comment on whether the Trump campaign officially sanctioned the trip, which has drawn the attention of investigators from the FBI and congressional committees investigating possible Trump campaign ties with Russian officials before the election.
And while Page has repeatedly denied wrongdoing in connection with his Moscow visit, it is now drawing increased scrutiny as a result of new disclosures about his contact two weeks later with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Just days after Kislyak talked to Page, Gordon and a third campaign official, WikiLeaks disseminated thousands of emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee’s servers — a hack that U.S. intelligence later attributed to the Russian government.
No connection between any of those three events has been alleged publicly or confirmed. But on Tuesday, Page confirmed that he is one of about a dozen individuals and organizations contacted by the Senate Intelligence Committee and asked to preserve relevant materials for its investigation into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to meddle in the 2016 presidential election.
“I will do everything in my power to reasonably ensure that all information concerning my activities related to Russia last year is preserved,” Page said in a letter to committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and ranking member Mark Warner (D-Va.).
In his letter, Page again denied any wrongdoing and repeated his claims that former officials of Hillary Clinton’s campaign and other Democrats have been spreading false information about the trip and Page’s other connections to Russia.
Page’s trip to Moscow has been the subject of intense speculation for months, but many of the details remain cloudy.
A longtime oil and energy industry consultant, Page had already spent considerable time in Russia before making the trip, most recently as founder and managing partner of the Global Energy Capital investment and consulting firm, which specializes in Russian and Central Asian oil and gas business.
The firm’s website says Page has been involved in more than $25 billion of transactions in the energy and power sector and that he spent three years in Moscow, where he was an adviser on key transactions for Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom and other energy-related companies.
Page has insisted that he was in Moscow to give a commencement address at the New Economic School there based on his scholarly research, and that his visit was “outside of my informal, unpaid role” on the Trump campaign. He also said he had divested any stake in Gazprom and that he had “not met this year [2016] with any sanctioned official in Russia despite the fact that there are no restrictions on U.S. persons speaking with such individuals.”
But last September, top congressional lawmakers were briefed on suspected efforts by Russia to meddle in the election. Soon after, then-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada asked FBI Director James Comey to investigate meetings between a Trump official, later identified as Page, and “high ranking sanctioned individuals” in Moscow that he believed were evidence of “significant and disturbing ties” between the Trump campaign and Moscow.
Trump campaign officials took steps to distance themselves from Page, who had been publicly identified as an adviser as recently as Aug. 24. He announced Sept. 26 that he was taking a leave of absence from the campaign, saying the accusations were untrue but causing too much of a “distraction.”
But even after Russia was linked to the hacking effort against Democrats, the Trump campaign did not seek to question Page about his trip, the campaign adviser said.
Asked what Page did while in Moscow, the adviser said, “I have no idea. I didn’t want to know.”
The adviser also said he was not aware of anyone else on the campaign who discussed the trip with Page, either to glean any foreign policy insight from him or to determine whether any damage control was needed based on his contacts.
“Nobody talked about it. It was such an ugly topic. Even when I saw him at the convention, I didn’t talk to him about it,” the adviser said, adding that some in the campaign had expressed concern that any public appearances in Moscow by Page would send a bad message.
The campaign fired Lewandowski on June 20, before Page took the trip. Paul Manafort, who replaced Lewandowski as manager and later became chairman, said he had no knowledge of any aspect of Page’s trip, including whether Lewandowski or anyone else approved it.
In recent days, Page’s contact with Russians resurfaced with news reports that he, Gordon and senior Trump campaign adviser Sen. Jeff Sessions all engaged in discussions with Kislyak at an event on the sidelines of the GOP convention.
Page has declined to comment on what they discussed, saying it was private, while Gordon characterized the conversations as harmless efforts to improve U.S.-Russia ties.
The former campaign adviser on Tuesday said Page and the ambassador had a lengthy discussion and that they were at times joined by Gordon and two other ambassadors from the region. The adviser did not know whether Page or Kislyak initiated the conversation.
Russian trolls attempting to reinforce the ultra right wing in the US and their "Deep State" conspiracy myth and to support Trump in deflecting all media from Trump and his Russian connections...
Kremlin bots instantly pounced on WikiLeaks dump, pushing false narrative that CIA framed Russia for hacking the DNC
http://thebea.st/2neCyPG
WikiLeaks' CIA dump came with a huge dezinformatsiya campaign that seemed poised and ready to exploit it.
“That narrative emerged far too quickly to have been organic...That usually speaks to some sort of automation or coordination.”
AND what do we hear from Trump and his WH in defending the CIA from Russian hackers...
REMEMBER this is the same President who did not believe Russian hacked the US....
China grants Trump 38 trademarks, reopening debate about conflicts of interest
http://wapo.st/2mj0j9P?tid=ss_tw
So was the core reason behind the sudden Trump swing to a one China policy and away from his China campaign rhetoric .....
How the CIA forgot the art of spycraft (while Russia was honing it), by @alexzfinley.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/cis-art-spying-espionage…
Number of tweets by @realDonaldTrump lambasting the unprecedented, hugely damaging @CIA vault leak,
deftly used by Russia:
0. Zero. Null. Nada. Nicht
Other security analyst types are saying the same thing..this Russian/WikiLeaks data dump is an disinformation attack to weaken the CIA and to provide flanking support to the Trump WH to provide support to the crazy conspiracy myth found on many right wing blogsites of the "Deep State" attack on Trump....
This important smoke-and-mirrors warning about the dubious timing of the #Wikileaks story from @tomsguide , a tech review site:
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/wikileaks-cia-hack-impact,news-24622.html?u…?
It is just not the Trump WH who has connections to Russia....so does a major Trump supporter....
Welcome to Russia, Sheriff Clarke and the NRA!
https://www.facebook.com/PravoNaOruzie/photos/a.316742795064592.73003.2…
IMPORTANT..another Trump Russian connection via a main Trump supporter....
This is a bombshell.
Kudos to @timkmak for excellent investigative reporting.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/03/07/top-trump-ally-met-wit…
BREAKING
@CJTFOIR-backed #MMC claims destruction of #EuphratesShield tank near Bughaz, west of #Manbij.
So much for the "de-escalation".
Better video of the attack.
Vehicle clearly hit.
Strike by #SDF/#MMC according to the logo presented in the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmYbOWaSJOQ#
Reread again.
It stated "claims tank" and "vehicle hit".
NOW US supported troops are actually firing on Turkish troops...
BUT Trump does not I believe fully understand the following about Russian interests in NOT fighting IS....which is evident from their none bombing campaign of IS vs say FSA...
Kremlin might be not interested in fighting ISIS because it could lead to new terrorism outbreak in Chechnya
http://intersectionproject.eu/article/security/chechnyas-dilemma
German headline from today in one of the most read MSM outlets Bild.....
ARTIKEL @BILD mit @vduemer
Kooperation mit #Putin?
#Trump lässt US-Armee in Nordsyrien auffahren
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump/trump-syrien-50737874.b…
Basically states that Trump has now placed US SOF in large numbers into the Manbij area WORKING officially together with Russian AF and ground troops and the US Kurdish group SDF that Turkey a NATO member claims is just part and parcel of a US fig leaf covering the US named terror group PKK which has also received weapons from the US....
In early DEC 2016 CENTCOM claimed they have not been providing small arms to the YPG BUT photos from yesterday depict a totally different view of that statement.....
Trump has now placed US SOF and USAF in the position of openly supporting THREE US named terror groups...Hezbollah...Iraqi Shia militia KH and the Kurdish communist group PKK....
BUT WAIT...I though Trump was fighting ALL Muslim terrorists...even Kurdish PKK is in fact Muslim as is Iraqi KH and Hezbollah....
MORE from the crazy "Deep State conspiracy front" of the ultra right in the US....
Your daily reminder that Julian Assange's work is heavily supported by neo-Nazis.
From a Richard Spicer tweet yesterday..he is a major neo Nazi speaker in the US and his Russian wife was the translator for the Russian ultra right ideologue Dugin before coming to the US...
Julian Assange is a hero of world historical importance. He is bringing down an empire!
AND the Trump WH silence.....
Remember, Assange, like Putin, sees Russia as a "bulwark against Western imperialism" + blames Clinton for his problems
In 1987 I was asked by a German security service agency to ask the US government nicely if they could provide assistance to them in tracking a number of bank transfers coming out of the US and heading to the German neo Nazi party NPD and other ultra right groups...
Amount being transferred totaled 12M USDs.....
US answer was no...bank privacy....
NOW jump forward to 2017 and suddenly we see the same exact process of money flowing into EU to support ultra right wing political groups...
Appears that if you are a Muslim the Trump WH takes immediate action BUT if you are an ultra right winger Trump WH looks deliberately the other way....
New York times from today...
Dutch Fear Russian Meddling, and U.S. Cash, in Election
By DANNY HAKIM and CHRISTOPHER F. SCHUETZE
American conservative activists are supporting Europe’s far-right figures like Geert Wilders, who are campaigning against the European Union.
Notice something about this social media comment....??
Putin's #Ukraine invasion explained in 2 tweets. Russian troll & US mercenary celebrate Russian Serbian mercenary killing #Ukrainian soldier.
No comments from the Trump WH about the increased Russian attacks AND will this American mercenary fighting for what Ukraine sees as a terrorist group WILL he be arrested and charged with war crimes by the US government....probably not because he is not a Muslim...BUT white....as he has definitely proven his allegiance to a foreign power..that is enough to pull his passport...
Appears that Trump and his merry band cannot multi task anything more than one problem at a time...
While he has largely failed on the internal policy front he has totally forgotten about external FP.....
1. NK has gone to hell in a handbag and not a single word from Trump and his DoS Tillerson
2. massive Russian attacks are still occurring on Ukrainian UAF positions in clear violation of Minsk 2 and Trump WH warnings....
3. Trump rails against Obama for the Russian INF and illegal missile problem BUT he himself does absolutely nothing nor says a single word nor does DoS Tillerson...
4. his foreign trade expert who really is not one rails against Germany...the Euro...ECB...and the EU in general
5. Chinese are signaling a tougher stand against the US over HK and the Trump WH and DoS Tillerson say what....nothing...
6. Russia continues state sponsored hacking and disinformation attacks against EU and NATO....AND not a single comment out of SecDef Mattis...DoS Tillerson and Trump....
7. Trump has not said a single word nor has his WH concerning the sudden US/Russian joint military operations inside Syria...
8. Trump has not said a single word about the sudden US military support for US named terror groups in Syria...Hezbollah...Iraq Shia militia KH and the Kurdish PKK that hides behind the fig leaf of YPG.....
This is suppose to be this great businessman able to handle anything not able to handle a single problem...except he can definitely tweet....
After the first and second Muslim Ban EO Trump failure he decided to get on with his other campaign promise....do away with Obamacare....
Well that is not going well either it seems....
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
I feel sure that my friend @RandPaul will come along with the new and great health care program because he knows Obamacare is a disaster!
BUT WAIT.....APPEARS Trump is having a minor problem....NOTICE he has repeatedly stated he was going to release his own very version of a new healthcare plan that would cover all and everything that ACA did but cheaper.
BUT WAIT...he released nothing and then jumped on the House version BECAUSE he had no plan now he is on the losing side it seems THUS his tweet....
From Washington Post today.....
Backlash grows over House GOP’s proposal to replace Obamacare
The health-care legislation drew widespread resistance from conservatives in and out of Congress, moderates in the Senate and key industry stakeholders, casting doubt on the plan’s chances just one day after it was released.
By Mike DeBonis, Robert Costa and David Weigel
Debrief: The debate over the Affordable Care Act is really a debate over wealth redistribution
BET Trump never thought governing could be so hard....BUT WAIT...did he not convince his voters he was this great businessman capable of anything he put his mind to....well.....????
EVER notice that this Trump WH has been incessantly bashing MSM about their own leaks and leakers YEY strangely totally silent about the WikiLeaks of the CIA data dump....
WHY is that????
From Washington Post today....
Trump loved WikiLeaks as a candidate. But as president, he is not a fan of leaks.
Trump and his aides have railed against leakers, threatening to find and prosecute them and urging congressional allies to investigate, while being uncharacteristically quiet when it comes to WikiLeaks.
It took the FBI stating they will now hunt for the leaker along with CIA....
BUT from the Trump WH total and utter silence...
Hypocrisy hard at work it seems...
REMEMBER that is was strangely Trump who openly and publicly called for the DNC hackers (Russians) to publish the 33,000 Clinton emails...
THEN it was the Trump surrogates who clamored for WikiLeaks to dump more Podesta hacked emails....
EVEN the Trump surrogates are also strangely silent when a US Intel Agency is hacked....
By the Way...before the ultra right wing bog sites run crazy with the CIA being the key force behind "Deep State".....
These blogsites should actually pay far more attention to the Internet of Things (IoT) which is far more dangerous for ALL Americans than what WikiLeaks released on the CIA...
Why... IT security research has detected black botnets totaling well over 600,000 devices than can be used to take down key servers of the internet backbone in say a DDoS attack....we have recently seen global DDoS attacks using IoT devices that attacked the entire US IT infrastructure blocking a large number of US internet servers....
These devices can be your refrigerator...your wash machine...your own car...your TV..your digital camera.....etc....anything that is "smart" these days....and they can never be "patched" or updated....thus are always a serious danger because hackers can use them anytime they want to...
AND especially anything that has a camera that is attached in any way to the internet ....
That is what the ultra right blog sites should be focusing on....not on a diffuse and crazy idea called "Deep State"...a term largely taken from Turkey...
REFERENCE the WikiLeaks CIA data dump from yesterday...I worked my way through the dump together with my IT collection and research team and several things stand massively out.
1. THIS is a WL and Russian FSB/GRU disinformation operation...a large number of sentences and statements in the dump are blatantly false and or simply "fake"....
2. THIS is being used to provide flanking cover for the Trump WH team and is an attempt to deflect from the ongoing Russian connection scandal that Trump is flailing around with.
3. THIS is a Russian FSB/GRU attempt to drive the US right wing media sites and conspiracy crazies that truly believe the idea of there actually being a "Deep State" being driven by Obama and the US IC..THUS supporting directly the Trump anti Obama twitter rant from this last weekend...
AGAIN a Russian attempt to support Trump and company against US MSM...
3. THIS is an attempt by the Russian FSB/SVR/GRU to create difficulties for the CIA world wide and we have seen the effect here this morning in Germany reference to alleged CIA hacking of TVs?
When one fully understands the mission of the CIA a lot of these "WL's claimed massive hacking tools" fail that statement BUT are tools that one can use if one's mission set is espionage....
Comments from another security company who also took the time to analyze the Wikileaks data dump....which came to virtually the same conclusion as we did...
Comments reference the WL CIA data dump from yesterday attempting to tie CIA to the Russian DNC hack and support the Trump and company thesis of being attacked by the "Deep State"....
Tuesday, March 07, 2017
Some comments on the Wikileaks CIA/#vault7 leak
I thought I'd write up some notes about the Wikileaks CIA "#vault7" leak. This post will be updated frequently over the next 24 hours.
The CIA didn't remotely hack a TV. The docs are clear that they can update the software running on the TV using a USB drive. There's no evidence of them doing so remotely over the Internet. If you aren't afraid of the CIA breaking in an installing a listening device, then you should't be afraid of the CIA installing listening software.
The CIA didn't defeat Signal/WhattsApp encryption. The CIA has some exploits for Android/iPhone. If they can get on your phone, then of course they can record audio and screenshots. Technically, this bypasses/defeats encryption -- but such phrases used by Wikileaks arehighly misleading, since nothing related to Signal/WhatsApp is happening. What's happening is the CIA is bypassing/defeating the phone. Sometimes. If they've got an exploit for it, or can trick you into installing their software.
There's no overlap or turf war with the NSA. The NSA does "signals intelligence", so they hack radios and remotely across the Internet. The CIA does "humans intelligence", so they hack locally, with a human. The sort of thing they do is bribe, blackmail, or bedazzle some human "asset" (like a technician in a nuclear plant) to stick a USB drive into a slot. All the various military, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies have hacking groups to help them do their own missions.
The CIA isn't more advanced than the NSA. Most of this dump is child's play, simply malware/trojans cobbled together from bits found on the Internet. Sometimes they buy more advanced stuff from contractors, or get stuff shared from the NSA. Technologically, they are far#behind the NSA in sophistication and technical expertise.
The CIA isn't hoarding 0days. For one thing, few 0days were mentioned at all. The CIA's techniques rely upon straightforward hacking, not super secret 0day hacking Second of all, they aren't keeping 0days back in a vault somewhere -- if they have 0days, they are using them.
The VEP process is nonsense.#Activists keep mentioning the "vulnerability equities process", in which all those interested in 0days within the government has a say in what happens to them, with the eventual goal that they be disclosed to vendors. The VEP is nonsense. The activist argument is nonsense. As far as I can tell, the VEP is designed as busy work to keep people away from those who really use 0days, such as the NSA and the CIA. If they spend millions of dollars buying 0days because it has that value in intelligence operations, they aren't going to destroy that value by disclosing to a vendor. If VEP forces disclosure, disclosure still won't happen, the NSA will simply stop buying vulns.
There's no false flags. In several places, the CIA talks about making sure that what they do isn't so unique, so it can't be attributed to them. However, Wikileaks's press release hints that the "UMBRAGE" program is deliberately stealing techniques from Russia to use as a false-flag operation. This is nonsense. For example, the DNC hack attribution was live command-and-control servers simultaneously used against different Russian targets -- not a few snippets of code.
This hurts the CIA a lot. Already, one AV researcher has told me that a virus they once suspected came from the Russians or Chinese can now be attributed to the CIA, as it matches the description perfectly to something in the leak. We can develop anti-virus and intrusion-detection signatures based on this information that will defeat much of what we read in these documents. This would put a multi-year delay in the CIA's development efforts. Plus, it'll now go on a witch-hunt looking for the leaker, which will erode morale. Update:#Three extremely smart and knowledgeable people who I respect disagree, claiming it won't hurt the CIA a lot. I suppose I'm focusing on "hurting the cyber abilities" of the CIA, not the CIA as a whole, which mostly is non-cyber in function.
The CIA is not cutting edge.#A few days ago, Hak5 started selling "BashBunny", a USB hacking tool more advanced than the USB tools in the leak. The CIA seems to get most of their USB techniques from open-source projects, such Travis Goodpseeds "GoodFET" project.
The CIA isn't spying on us.#Snowden revealed how the NSA was surveilling all Americans. Nothing like that appears in the CIA dump. It's all legitimate spy stuff (assuming you think spying on foreign adversaries is legitimate).
Update #2: How is hacking cars and phones not SIGINT (which is the NSA's turf)?[*]#The answer is via physical access. For example, they might have a device that plugs into the ODBII port on the car that quickly updates the firmware of the brakes. Think of it as normal spy activity (e.g. cutting a victim's brakes), but now with cyber.
Expect confusion btwn Washington&Berlin for a while.
Navarro wants to take on Germany;then Mattis&Tillerson; &in background, Bannon vs Merkel
Will be an interesting German/US combined press conference...expect Merkel to hold her ground as she has coming elections and a large majority of German voters simply think Trump is crazy and a threat to Germans....
NOTICE just how this flanking WL support attempts to tie CIA to the Russian hacking tools THUS the DNC hacking was not Russia but a CIA false flag attack.....ALL DESIGNED to hurt Trump.....
NOTICE now the so called "Deep State" conspiracy myth gets it support...
In the Trump/Breitbart.com/Bannon world "Deep State" is being led by Obama....
zerohedge
@zerohedge
The CIA has stolen malware produced by Russia, and can misdirect attribution to Moscow
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-07/wikileaks-hold-press-conferenc… …
BUT WAIT......
Live Monitor @amlivemon 2h
2 hours ago
Pure Russian disinformation
Live Monitor @amlivemon 18m
18 minutes ago
I know both CIA & NSA well..the manipulative info mixed with disinformation selectively leaked by @Wikileaks is pure FSB propaganda #Vault7
If you really analyze the Russian propaganda media...while they state the Trump Putin bromance is over...not really if you follow the better propaganda outlets stating they see potential for great deals with the US..especially since the US military is now working jointly with Russia in Syria.....
Don't be fooled by "bromance over" stories. Russia's again using Wikileaks to prop Trump, feeding his wild CIA/Obama "deep state" conspiracy
Just as Trump comes out with his "Deep State" accusations against Obama and the entire US IC and FBI....
Suddenly WL is actively providing flanking support by releasing CIA data....
Coincidence??....not really....
Newsmax: Trump met Russian Amb. Kislyak last April, contradicting repeated denials from Trump
http://americablog.com/2017/03/newsmax-trump-met-russian-amb-kislyak-la…
The Trump admin. reportedly wants to fund the border wall by gutting agencies that protect against terrorism
http://read.bi/2mxaqdr
BUT WAIT...Did not Trump openly stated numerous times Mexico was going to pay for the Wall not the US taxpayer..WELL that was a lie was it not????
BUT WAIT...he is cutting agencies that are suppose to protect US citizens...so when that next big due to climate change hurricane or tornado series hits..there will be no FEMA for example.....
Trump plan pays for immigration crackdown with budget cuts for the Coast Guard, TSA and FEMA
AND the next time you get hijacked or a bomb goes off in a plane thank Trump as TSA is getting cut as well....
While Russia wages a non linear war using political warfare against the US via cyber and info warfare...Trump bashes Obama......BUT not Russia....
Especially when this occurs Trump remains totally and completely silent....
WikiLeaks is a front for Russian intelligence. They are still waging information war + doing material damage to the CIA/NSA
BUT WAIT...silence from Trump.....
WHILE Trump and company are bashing Obama on Russia WHICH Trump has done absolutely nothing on except praise Putin....
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump 2h
2 hours ago
For eight years Russia "ran over" President Obama, got stronger and stronger, picked-off Crimea and added missiles. Weak! @foxandfriends
SO as he bashes Obama for Russia...the following is happening he does absolutely nothing about it...
1. Syria...US SOF and USAF are now supporting two US named terror groups Hezbollah, and the PKK....and the Iraqi Shia militia KH...along with the Iranian IRGC....
2. Russia is attacking Ukrainian UAF positions every day with over 100 attacks and silence from Trump and company....
3. Trump backed down on his threatening to stop China in the South china Sea...their currency issues etc...and agreed to respect the one China policy
AND then this.....
Mattis urged moving ahead with THAAD on his trip to Seoul. As the North pops off missiles, we are seeing the results
In a matter of hours, the Korean peninsula fell into a state of geopolitical tumult
Watch this space: intertwined tension among #China #SouthKorea #NorthKorea #Malaysia #Japan and the US. Escalation very possible.
Arguably Trump admin's most consequential foreign policy move so far. China now punishing #SouthKorea w/sanctions as well
BUT WAIT....I did not think Trump wanted the US to be the policeman of the world....???
FACTS do matter these days just not some kind of tweet bashing with nothing but falsehoods and incorrect facts...
Truth does matter.....
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump 3h
3 hours ago
122 vicious prisoners, released by the Obama Administration from Gitmo, have returned to the battlefield. Just another terrible decision!
BUT WAIT....
Actually 113 were released by President Bush or 93%......
Obama only released nine or 7%......
Who in the heck gives Trump's constant fake info?
NOW Russian media is turning completely against Trump....
Kremlin always knew Trump was an incompetent fool, and the Russians are great with that.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/donald-trump-russia-media-235755