Small Wars Journal

Rethinking Pakistan and China

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 4:18pm

Rethinking the Pakistan Plan

by Amitai Etzioni

The National Interest

The most promising route seems to be the one that appears the most difficult—helping settle the India-Pakistan conflict. Such a settlement would free Pakistan to focus its forces on the insurgency, reduce its sense that it must control the course of events in Afghanistan, possibly scale back its military nuclear program and better secure its nuclear arms. It would also reduce the importance of the military. Detailed and rather widely shared ideas have been put forth on how this conflict might be settled, and various tension-reduction moves and negotiations between the two nations have already taken place. That indicates this road can be navigated.

For the West to influence the conflict settlement, it will need to show Pakistan that the United States and its allies are no longer tilting toward India. Doing so will require a geopolitical reassessment, one which acknowledges that China is best treated as a regional power (although not a regional hegemon) with few, if any, global ambitions and a power with which the West can deal on many international matters. This reassessment, moreover, would recognize that balancing is a concept that applies poorly to the twenty-first-century age of weapons of mass destruction, cyberwarfare, long-range missiles, unconventional forces and terrorism. Thus there is no reason to try to cast India in the role of a China balancer.

In short, both the links between Afghanistan and Pakistan and Pakistan’s internal dynamics are affected by the India-Pakistan entanglement. This entanglement, in turn, is affected by the India-China-West relationship. Although at first it may seem far-fetched to argue that a promising way to break the persistent morass in Afghanistan and Pakistan is to reexamine Western assumptions about China’s course, this avenue might well be worth exploring in its own right and for the sake of all the parties involved.

Amitai Etzioni is a professor of international affairs at The George Washington University. He is the author of Security First (Yale University Press, 2007). He is indebted to Julia Milton and Marissa Cramer for research assistance on this article.

 

"China: Making an Adversary"

Abstract:

Commentators in the Western media, the United States Congress and academia are increasingly contending that China is on its way to becoming a threatening global force, an adversary, if not an enemy. This article examines whether those views are justified, after first establishing the importance of critically assessing all claims that a nation is turning into an adversary. The examination proceeds by summarizing the arguments of those who consider China an adversary in the making - the 'adversarians' - and the responses of those who hold China is leaning toward a peaceful development and should be engaged - the 'engagers'. The discussion is organized into three segments, each analyzing the debate with regard to the different sectors of power: military/geopolitical, economic and ideational. The concluding sections explore alternative American responses to China's rising power in each of the three sectors.


Find the article in International Politics Volume 48, Issue 6 (November 2011).

Comments

Chanakya

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:13am

"The most promising route seems to be the one that appears the most difficult—helping settle the India-Pakistan conflict. Such a settlement would free Pakistan to focus its forces on the insurgency, reduce its sense that it must control the course of events in Afghanistan, possibly scale back its military nuclear program and better secure its nuclear arms. It would also reduce the importance of the military. Detailed and rather widely shared ideas have been put forth on how this conflict might be settled, and various tension-reduction moves and negotiations between the two nations have already taken place. That indicates this road can be navigated."

Mr Etzioni couldn't be more removed from the reality of the geopolitics of South Asia. Even if India were to reconcile, Pakistan which is on a radical wahabi path of Islamisation, duly assisted by the Saudi Arabia has moved out of the South Asian political considerations. It would support Jihad of all forms even at its peril - that of its Talibanisation.

China Pakistan alliance is another force to contend with in checkmating US in the region.

If US wants to resolve Af Pak it would have to concentrate on removing Pakistan fom the Saudi orbit rather than focussing on India. The India threat theory is used by Pakistan Army to remain the key player in Pakistan and nothing more.

Don Bacon

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 5:22pm

Exactly correct but unfortunately the required geopolitical reassessment is not in the cards. China (and its Pakistan ally) are the new designated U.S. enemies. All great powers must have enemies, apparently.

This divide caused by India/Pakistan shows up most dangerously in Afghanistan, and General McChrystal assessed it over two years ago.
<blockquote>General McChrystal's Report
Aug 30, 2009
'Afghanistan's insurgency is clearly supported from Pakistan. . .and are reportedly aided by some elements of Pakistan's ISI [Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence ]."

"Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan, including significant efforts and financial investment. In addition, the current Afghan government is perceived by Islamabad to be pro-Indian. While Indian activities largely benefit the Afghan people, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India."</blockquote>
The new pivot away from the West and Central Asia to Asia-Pacific depends upon India to help counter China.
<blockquote>January 8, 2012
US wants India to serve as ‘Economic Anchor’ in Asia Pacific region: Adm. Robert F. Willard
WASHINGTON (SANA): With a long term strategic partnership with India, the US wants to support its ability to serve as an “economic anchor” in the Asia Pacific region where it is already driving economic development along with another giant China, a top US commander has said.

“At one point, it was, Asian tigers, and now we look at China and India and there are two Asian giants that are driving the economic developments in the region,” Willard said delivering the keynote address at the Hawaii Military Partnership Conference.

He said the new Defence Strategic Review unveiled by President Obama stresses on building relationship with India, as the US increases its presence in the Asia-Pacific region where the US economic and security interests come across a mix of evolving “challenges and opportunities”. </blockquote>