Small Wars Journal

Islamic State Group 'Lost Quarter of Territory' in 2016

Wed, 01/18/2017 - 8:26pm

Islamic State Group 'Lost Quarter of Territory' in 2016 - BBC News

The so-called Islamic State (IS) lost almost a quarter of its territory in 2016, according to new analysis.

The group gave up almost 18,000 sq km (6,900 sq miles), its territory being reduced to some 60,400 sq km, just less than the size of Florida, security and defence analysts IHS Markit reported.

Image - BBC News

IHS Markit predicted the recapture of Mosul by Iraqi government forces by the middle of the year.

But it said the stronghold of Raqqa would be a tougher nut to crack.

IHS Markit said the 23% reduction in IS-held territory in 2016 followed on from a 14% loss the year before.

"The Islamic State suffered unprecedented territorial losses in 2016, including key areas vital for the group's governance project," said Columb Strack, senior analyst and head of the IHS Conflict Monitor.

He said that this came despite IS retaking the city of Palmyra in December, "from a Syrian government preoccupied at the time with Aleppo".

In Mosul - Iraq's second city, which has been under the control of the extremists since 2014 - Iraqi government forces had "made steady progress" in eastern districts, the report says, although they have been meeting heavy resistance in recent days…

Read on.

Comments

Is the Islamic State giving up key terrain? Aleppo was a fight between Assad's Army, Iranian "Shiite foreign Legions", HezbAllah and Russia versus Al-Nusra and Sunni rebels. But in fighting for Mosul fighting has stalled for a number of reasons, one understated reason is the Turkish entry and its opposition to Kurdish forces entering Mosul. Turkey claims territorial rights stemming from treaties after WWI.
There are strong indications President Trump will work with the Russians and Assad to retake Palmyra.
Are the Daesh to be lumped in with other rebel groups and territories lost in this graph?
Are the Daesh giving up desert or key terrain?
Even though Kirkuk is in the white, when fighting bogged down in Mosul they launched a surprise attack that was successful against Kirkuk, they also raided the Russians base near Palmyra T-4 and helped themselves to supplies. They are still able to project force if given the opportunity.

The second general question is how has the Islamic Sate fared in the rest of the world? It is projecting and inspiring lethal and successful terrorist attacks all over the world. It has expanded and tightened its grip in the Sinai. Boko Haram has been kicked out of Nigeria but we never got many of those girls back as promised.
Are we killing it or is metastasizing? Nice map.