Small Wars Journal

Iraq, Afghanistan, NATO, COIN and Candidates

Sun, 01/20/2008 - 5:13pm
War, Meet the 2008 Campaign by Michael Gordon, New York Times

... On the ground with the troops, it is clear that a major military change was in fact made in Iraq last year — not so much the addition of 30,000 troops, but the shift to a counterinsurgency strategy for using them. That strategy made the protection of Iraq's population a paramount goal in an effort to drive a wedge between the people and the militants and to encourage Iraqis to provide intelligence that the American military forces need to track down an elusive foe.

But counterinsurgency is inherently a long-term proposition, and that assumption has driven much of the military thinking about the future, even as it heightens the political debate at home.

"Unless you are suppressing insurgents the way the Romans did — creating a desert and calling it peace — it typically can take the better part of a decade or more," said Andrew Krepinevich, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

"The paradox," he added, "is that counterinsurgency requires convincing the Iraqis of our staying power. At the same time, the American people view success in terms of how quickly we can pull out."

The American military plans to return by mid-July to 15 combat brigades, the total in Iraq before the troop buildup. No decisions have been made on further reductions, but American officers foresee a continued need for American combat forces and generally anticipate a more gradual shifting of responsibilities to Iraqi forces than many of the candidates — a reflection of caution they say is warranted by years of sobering experience.

"It is about mitigating risk and not repeating mistakes of the past," said one senior American officer in Iraq, referring to this cautious approach.

The politicians are suggesting they can produce faster results. But the candidates who have lambasted President Bush for failing to ask the tough questions about what might happen the day after Saddam Hussein was swept from power often don't fully address hard questions about what might happen the day after the American military gets out...

More:

Leavenworth Officers Updated on Iraq Security - Scott Cannon, Kansas City Star

Al Qaeda in Iraq's Shrinking Area of Operations - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

75% of Baghdad Areas Now Secure - Jim Michaels, USA Today

A Flip of the COIN - Steve Schippert, ThreatsWatch

The Debate Over Aghan Strategy - The Belmont Club

Gates on NATO Allies - Abu Muqawama

NATO in Afghanistan: Friendly Fire from SecDef Gates - Kings of War

More on COIN and the Europeans - Abu Muqawama

Donald Rumsfeld Gates? - Westhawk

The Afghanistan Strategy Debate Continues - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

Gates: NATO Allies Doing What They Can - Lolita Baldor, Associated Press

Sticks 'n' Stones and Allies (Afghanistan) - New York Times editorial

Tough Questions on Afghanistan - The Record editorial (Ontario)

The Charge Made by Robert Gates - The Globe and Mail editorial

Afghanistan was Never Canada's War - Thomas Walkom, Toronto Star

Analyst Backs Gates' NATO Criticism - Leander Schaerlaeckens, Washington Times

Pakistani Home-grown Jihadists - Joseph Galloway, McClatchy Newspapers

More Troops to Afghanistan - Judith Latham, Voice of America

Gates' Criticism of Afghanistan Forces Riles NATO - Guy Raz, National Public Radio