The conventional wisdom about the incursion by Israeli ground units into Gaza, mirrored in Sunday's Washington Post, is that "Israeli leaders run the risk of repeating their disastrous experience in the 2006 Lebanon war, when they suffered high casualties in ground combat with Hezbollah." Apparently, reporters and pundits are even more prone to refighting the last war than generals: Gaza is not Lebanon; Hamas is not Hezbollah and, most critically, Israel now is not Israel in 2006.
Andrew Exum, at Abu Muqawama, asks why is it so quiet along the Blue Line? He lists three points on why Hezbollah has been so quiet these past two weeks and solicits AM's readership to sound off in the comments. Ex also points to what he considers as good an article on the fighting in Gaza as any he has read in an American newspaper by Charles Levinson at The Wall Street Journal.
As forces move deeper into Gaza, Israel's leaders seek to avoid the mistakes made in the ambitious 2006 invasion of Lebanon.
Tom Ricks also wants to know why Hezbollah is being so quiet on the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Comments
Hezbollah's primary objective is Lebanese political dominance; a war with Israel right now does not serve that end. And Nasrallah is no fool. An attack on Israel is all downside for Hezbollah with no upside.
Hezbollah has <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanese_Anti-Government_Protest">shr…; built on its 2006 military victory to achieve <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doha_Agreement">several political victories</a> since then. After forcing the issue of their veto power within the Lebanese government, Hezbollah has achieved nearly all of its near-term political goals, with the promise of more in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2009">upcoming elections</a>.
Before the recent Lebanese crisis was resolved, people speculated about another Lebanese descent into civil war. A Hezbollah attack on Israel would break up the Lebanese government, undermine or destroy Hezbollah's significant political accomplishments, and raise the specter of civil war. It would accomplish nothing militarily, as Hezbollah no longer has anything to prove to Israel or the world, thanks to Israeli performance during the 2006 war.