Small Wars Journal

Contradictions in Syrian Conflict Seen in Battle Around Aleppo

Mon, 01/18/2016 - 9:17am

Contradictions in Syrian Conflict Seen in Battle Around Aleppo

Jamie Dettmer, Voice of America

A months-long struggle for control of the northern Aleppo countryside between Syrian insurgent factions and Islamic State militants is at a stalemate, partly because Western and Gulf-backed rebel militias are being forced to reinforce south of Syria’s onetime commercial capital to combat Russian-backed Syrian army and Lebanese Shi'ite forces, admit insurgent commanders and fighters.

The impasse risks forcing the hand of Kurdish-led forces east of the Euphrates, encouraging them to cross the river en masse and finish the job the Western and Gulf-backed Free Syrian Army seems incapable of completing – ridding the northern Aleppo countryside of IS.

That would exacerbate disagreements within the U.S.-led international coalition. Turkey has threatened dire consequences, if the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces move further west.

The emboldened Syrian army backed by fighters from the radical Lebanese Shi'ite movement Hezbollah have made some inroads albeit slowly south and east of Aleppo — and they have made advances in the coastal province of Latakia.

“The Russian air campaign enabled additional battlefield gains by the Syrian regime from January 8 to January 14,” according to Genevieve Casagrande of the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, D.C., that monitors the military campaigns in the Levant.

Regained Control

Over the weekend, regime forces regained control over the village of al-Ajozeyye in Aleppo’s eastern countryside.

And army spokesmen also claimed to have inflicted heavy losses on what they termed “terrorists” in al-Mansoura village and Khirbet Hazmar west of Aleppo.

The struggle in the northern Aleppo countryside adjacent to the border with Turkey is a key one and has become more complex with each passing month featuring on the ground regime forces, insurgents seeking to oust President Bashar al-Assad, IS — and, in the air, Syrian, Russian and U.S.-led coalition warplanes.

Rival ground forces sometimes are able to take advantage in skirmishes of airstrikes launched by their foes.

With a dizzying array of vying armed groups, jihadists and Syrian government-aligned forces battling each other in multiple micro-conflicts, friend can become foe, and foe can turn into a temporary ally with alarming speed — depending on where clashes are occurring.

Dizzying Array of Armed Groups

Certainly in the battles and skirmishes around Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and onetime commercial capital, the struggle is getting messier by the day. Rebel commanders loudly accuse Damascus and Moscow of helping the Islamic State terror group with airstrikes on anti-Assad rebels.

They are slower to admit, though, that in parts of the eastern Aleppo countryside Russian airstrikes on IS inadvertently have helped the anti-Assad rebels.

Both anti-Assad rebels and the government, when it serves tactical military purposes, take advantage of the terror group's presence on the battlefield, if only indirectly, in their battles against each other.

In the northern Aleppo countryside, Islamic State fighters have been opportunistically leveraging Russia’s air campaign to press offensives on the rebel-held towns of Marea, Tal Rifat and Azaz.

“After Russian airstrikes they mount attacks on us,” says Abdul Rahman, a commander with the Ahfad Omer battalion, part of the larger First Brigade, a U.S.-backed secular militia.

But as the battles in the northern Aleppo countryside see-saw and stalemate — the control of villages can change hands day by day — the chances increase of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces being tempted to intervene.

Dam Seized

In December the SDF seized the October Dam on the Euphrates River, giving them access to the Aleppo countryside.

Some forces crossed west of the river — a red line for Ankara who fears the Kurds are intent on expanding their territory along the border to link up separated mainly Kurdish cantons.

For face-saving purposes, the Turks accepted that the SDF fighters who actually crossed were Arabs and Turkmen and not Kurds, prompting some observers to argue that the Turkish authorities were now prepared to accept the inevitable.

But Turkish officials have told VOA that is not so and that an en masse trespass by Kurdish fighters linked to Turkey’s outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) would invite Turkish retaliation.

“Both Ankara and the Kurds rank each other far higher than Assad or the Islamic State on their respective lists of evils for urgent destruction,” argues Aron Lund, who writes the Syria in Crisis report for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a US think tank.

For the U.S., Syrian Kurdish fighters have  proven to be most effective allies against the Islamic State.

At the moment Turkey may stay its hand as Ankara has realized belatedly “its need for Western support and the costs of playing spoiler,” according to Lund.

But “these contradictions threaten to rip apart the United States’ Syrian alliance network, undermining its policy to pressure both Assad and the Islamic State,” he maintains.

The contradictions were apparent Sunday night when Islamic factions favored by Gulf countries clashed with SDF forces around Malkiya village in Aleppo’s northern countryside, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group based in London that relies on information from a network of political activists.

Comments

Outlaw 09

Tue, 01/19/2016 - 11:43am

Syria #IslamicState cut off water supply for entire #Aleppo city
(via Euphrates river channel)

Now the interesting point since the Assad mercenary army/militias have been soundly beaten...the only boots on the ground able to resist IS is the FSA BUT Obama and company do not want to supply them and have actually cut their TOW supplies ---why because Putin and Assad declare them terrorists and jihadi's the furthest thing from the actual truth AND Obama thinks he needs Putin's support.

Outlaw 09

Tue, 01/19/2016 - 7:26am

Madhu...while VOA kicked off this article...notice not a single follow up on the heavy IS Assad fighting yesterday that saw IS beating up badly on the Assad mercenary forces.....AND this is critical capturing a significant number of MANPADs.....by any western MSM and that includes VOA as well.....

Taken from the Syrian 2016 thread.......

...re. Dayr az-Zawr...

The Daesh offensive there seems to have really hurt the regime badly.

The Deirezzor24 (one of most reliable local sources), reports that the Daesh not only captured but still controls al-Bughayliya, despite regime counterattack. They have also captured - and are still holding - al-Jazeera Private University, Ayash arms depots, Sayqa Base (where Daesh shot this series of photos of captured equipment and dead NDF, making it clear they've captured 3 T-72s, 4 BPMs, and a Shilka), Radar and Radio Hills, all NW of the city.

There are rumours that in the captured SAM site, the Daesh should have captured at least three 'anti-aircraft missiles', maybe more (some guess '20-50').

Yesterday, the Daesh should've brought in reinforcements and last evening - amid a sand-storm - assaulted the Heart Hospital and western Jura district, plus Basatin al-Nahr district, thus reaching the northern entry to the air base. Their artillery began shelling regime positions around Hotel al-Furat, west of Dayr az-Zawr.

Contrary to reports by regime-fans that 'Russians returned to the skies' over Dayr az-Zawr, it is still only the Assadist Su-24s that are operating there (see photo attached below; note sand + brown camo on top surfaces, as applied only on Assadist Su-24M2s). Three days ago they massacred several families in al-Bughayliya instead of hitting Daesh there (see report cited below); yesterday, they attempted to hit the Daesh north of the Base 137. Results are unclear...

For their part, Russians are heavily bombing villages west of Dayr az-Zawr.... ('makes sense' to Moscow, I guess...)

There are more rumours from regime-fans reporting the death of Maj Gen Essam Zahreddine (Druze CO of the 104th Brigade RGD), in addition to (confirmed) death of Brig Gen Samir Amen Ali etc., other regime-fans report Zahreddine 'has been hit' and was evacuated out of the city, together with Maj Gen Mohammed Kadour.

...well, whatever... essence of all of this is that the Daesh has de-facto destroyed most of regime's presence in northern outskirts of Dayr az-Zawr with this operation; that with all the losses of some of top commanders, and with the loss of one of its major ammo storage areas, the garrison there is unlikely to hold out for very much longer. Unsurprisingly, there are already rumours that Russians might deploy at least a battalion from their VDV brigade there. I don't consider this very likely, though: Daesh simply has no priority for Russians.

Finally, the Deirezzor24 has earlier denied any kind of mass-slaughter of civilians by the Daesh - as reported by regime-fans. Instead, they specify:

Quote:

The number of civilians who have fallen martyrs in the ongoing clashes in the western countryside of Deir Ezzor is twelve, and to be more precise they were martyred by a deadly regime airstrike on the town of al Bughayliya yesterday, DeirEzzor24 correspondent in the western countryside of Deir Ezzor added.

Those executed by ISIS in the town of al Bughyaliya yesterday were only Assad forces along with the National Defense militiamen (NDF), after the group had captured them in the town, and their number does not exceed 15 elements. On other hand, many civilians have fled to the village of Ayash in rural Deir Ezzor amid heavy clashes in the town of al Bughayliya.

Outlaw 09

Mon, 01/18/2016 - 2:15pm

In reply to by Outlaw 09

As you can see the confusion is widespread but the tenor is IS and FSA are gaining in territory and the SDF is nowhere to be seen......AND none of this is being carried in western MSM.......WHY is that????

Footage
Syrian rebels shell #Aleppo airport - main hub for Iranian military support.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b977VoBjt88

Syria #IS seized 3 tanks, 4 BMPs, Shilka, manpads & ammo during offensive in #DeirEzzor outskirts & establish supply line along Euphrates

SAA mercenary Brigadier Gn. "Samer Amin" from #Tartous exterminated during clashes w/#Isis
#DeirEzzor #Syria JAN18

1 killed,6 wounded after #isis katyusha rockets targeted School in #Kilis city,(#Turkey-#Syria/#Aleppo border) JAN18

FSA #SultanMurad ask civilians living between #Azaz & #Jarabulus leave area for their safety
#Aleppo #Syria JAN 18

Syria Rebels took over Touma village in #Latakia mountains
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.707771&lon=36.184759&z=14&m=b

Rebels in turkmen mountain in Lattakia restored some villages and positions which they lost a few days ago and they keep advancing

DeirEzzor: #IslamicState take control of "fire & missile battalion" inside brigade 137 base
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.320378&lon=40.030231&z=14&m=b … …

Reports: #SAA Major General Mohammed Kaddour & Airport commander Brigadier Issam Zahreddine have left #DeirEzzor

Seems Basatin al-Nahr & Heart Hospital of #DeirEzzor now in hands of
#IslamicState
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.353986&lon=40.127306&z=16&m=b

Syrian Rebels recapture several positions in Aleppo, Latakia & Hama because whether conditions were poor for airstrikes

Homs: Most important figures of NDF in Homs captured http://fb.me/7i29d5kyC

Hezbollah forces killed recently in Syria
http://en.eldorar.com/node/1242

I think you can clearly see from the last retweets that Assad propagandists claiming regime "captured all lost ground" have LIED

Pro Assad propagandists claim regime "retook all ground" in Deir Ezzor, truth is they didn't & ISIS captured more

Assads NDF were ambushed by rebels in Jabal Turkman today with no support from Russian jets due to weather conditions

BTW..Things are now going to get interesting as the IS now has manpads via the Assad SAA, Shia militias and Hezbollah...now just how will the RuAF react....

Outlaw 09

Mon, 01/18/2016 - 1:23pm

In reply to by Madhu (not verified)

If one is following the Syrian 2016 thread the daily reporting from Aleppo
is being posted as fast as it is clearing the satcoms out of the area....
and if you read the comments from CrowBat...the confusion is not as bad as it is being reported and sometimes falsely reported by western MSM and commenters.

The accuracy of the Russian air strikes while hitting FSA has been poor BUT largely in fact is killing civilians not FSA and or the IS.

The SDF which is largely Kurds and is attempting to take ever larger amounts of so called Kurdish territory that was mentioned somehow about 1500 years ago being Kurdish but in fact is Arab controlled and largely Sunni. Especially the entire borderzone along the Turkish border which Turkey has repeatedly warned them against doing due to their support of FSA there as well as the borderzone having a large Arab and Turkman population.

The crossing of the Euphrates may yet trigger the Turkish Army to cross into Syria as they have warned the SDF and the US about further SDF movements into Arab Areas.....

The FSA has in fact been deeply involved in fighting in and around Aleppo with Assad, IRGC troops, Hezbollah troops, 30 Iraqi Shia militias, and a Shia mercenary army from 12 countries and and the IS.

AND dodging Russian and Assad air strikes AND one wonders WHY there is confusion on the ground.

BTW---most of this is not being reported at all by western MSM.

Madhu (not verified)

Mon, 01/18/2016 - 12:54pm

Col. Lang has this on his site:

<blockquote>Russian air and artillery are chewing the "opposition" to bits while the threat of Russian anti-air defenses have effectively grounded the Turkish Air Force. This has enabled the YPG Kurds to advance across the Euphrates River to threaten the IS' supply line to Turkey and the Syrian Army to re-group and sort out the confusion caused by the long, slow decline it had experienced at the hands of rebels supplied by the US, Turkey and the Gulfies.

The "grinding" process continues as forces are positioned for the climactic battle we have characterized here as the kesselschlacht .</blockquote>

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/01/httprudawnet…

I have no idea but he proved correct on many things in the past, many things that the more conventional wisdom didn't predict.