Small Wars Journal

A disturbing repot on Baghlan province in today's Wall Street Journal

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 10:03am
An article in today's Wall Street Journal discussed the deteriorating security situation in Baghlan province, north of Kabul. According to the article, Taliban popularity is increasing because the movement, although still unpopular, compares increasingly favorably with the government. In addition, anti-government resistance in the north is now multi-ethnic and effectively tailors its political strategy and tactics to local conditions. Some excerpts:

"People don't love the Taliban—but if they compare them to the government, they see the Taliban as the lesser evil," said Baghlan Gov. Munshi Abdul Majid, an appointee of President Hamid Karzai.

As a result, the Taliban are winning support beyond the Pashtun community, their traditional base. In Baghlan, where Pashtuns account for less than one-quarter of the province's 804,000 residents, the insurgency is now drawing ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks and other minorities previously seen as unsympathetic to the rebel cause.

"It's clear that the insurgents concentrate their efforts on those areas where they can hope to reach a significant impact," explained Maj. Gen. Hans-Werner Fritz, the German commander of 11,000 coalition troops across Afghanistan's nine northern provinces. "The northern part could become the game-changer for all of Afghanistan."

Baghlan is of strategic importance, Gen. Fritz added, because most supplies from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan pass through, including most of the coalition's fuel. The power line from Uzbekistan, the main source of Kabul's electricity, also runs through here.

ISAF established the Northern Distribution Network to reduce its logistical dependence on its supply routes through Pakistan. A corollary aim was to reduce Pakistan's strategic leverage over the military campaign in Afghanistan. Increased Taliban activity in Baghlan and other northern provinces may be designed to put the northern supply routes under threat, reestablishing Taliban and Pakistani leverage.

I recommend reading the whole article.

Comments

Aziz Mohammad (not verified)

Mon, 11/08/2010 - 2:13pm

Munshi majeed is related to hizb-e-Islami the currupt governour before him had ties with taliban along with chif of police...

Aziz Mohammad (not verified)

Mon, 11/08/2010 - 2:07pm

I am from Baghlan born and raised in pul-e-khumri city.
After all I read about my city certainly there are alot of view points and thoughts regarding Baghlan I have a Question and please take the time to answer using common since.
I hear reports from ANDS that two suicide bombers are heading to Pul-e-khumri city at this time for example and they are wearing this type of clothes... you just name it the government have all the information they nee regarding suicide bomber they even share this information with ISAF security forces in the province but what happens the next few days the suicide bomber is blowing himself up some where in the suburb of the city killing dozens of innocent civilians and other afghan security forces as a main target. So now I ask if all security organs within the government knows about the exact timing of the incident and they know where it is going to take place why isn't any one doing anything to prevent it from happening???

Where I live it used to be like hell 3 days before the elections ISAF and Afghan security forces couldn't even take a small village despite air superiority over Taliban Dandi Shahabudin was the main place where Taliban was and is hiding right now the American forces established a temporarily base in this village and they are planning to establish another base next to shahabudin area.

The know that they are being watch by there opponents (Talibans) yet they also know there names and addresses why arent they making any arests.

I think what the Americans are doing right now they are trying to pay Taliban to destabilize the situation in the north of Afghanistan so they withdrew there forces from southern Afghanistan to north. And send Hungarians and Germans to places where they have never been before nor they have any idea about what it really happening to them.

Not to mention I like the strategy that the Americans are using fighting the Taliban in this province making militia man to fight the Taliban and latter on kill the militias by bombs.
I remember last time when they armed a former commender (Warlord) by the name of Commander Shir Mohammad they gave him ammunitions and food hell they even supported them while the situation was calm in Dandi Shahabudin. When the Elections got closer they left him alone to die he fought the Taliban for almost two days without resting soon they run out of food and ammunitions they called the Americans security forces for help they said no we can't come in because it was to hot for them to go instead American forces told them to raise a red flag so that we know your location we will provide you with air support they took a red mattress to the roof top of the compound where they were surrendered by Taliban instead of helping them Two F16 we in the area they called in the strike and dropped a huge bomb on the compound and killed all the militia man no one was left alive that Day I remember they killed almost all militia man only 20 were killed by aircraft bomb and latter on they announced that Commander Shir Mohammad was killed by Taliban

So this is only one of there stories which took place Dandi Shahabudin there were allot of other places where they murdered and killed innocent people.

The United States army are the most trained soldiers in the world why cant they just shoot straight and kill the enemy and eliminate the Taliban once and for all.

Cheers.

RH (not verified)

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 11:55am

For those of you who have not read "Obama's War's"..you should...the central theme of the 30,000 surge was to disrupt the Taliban, maintain "control" of populations centers, specially Kandahar and Kabul..and moreover, to disrupt the Taliban.

If in the case of the northern provinces not normally under the "control" of the Taliban, it is apparent the Taliban ideology, at least in the fanatical sense is not apparent. But, rather a "security first" kind of "control"..thereby, de facto "winning the hearts and minds's" of the locals.

The central thrust to the "newly resourced Afghanistan War" is to clear, hold, build ..and transfer. But, the later relative to transferring the security to the ANA and ANP is distant, if not over the horizon in terms of implementation.

For those of you who have worked with the ANA..or the ANP, you know the challenges. The prevailing question, even from my days in Afghanistan (Paktia/Khost-2003) is if the ANA or the ANP cannot or do not care to protect their people..when how can we as westerners play that part.

Certainly and in retrospect, the Iraq War gave way to under resourced capabilities in Afghanistan. What would be the situation now had Bush et al not decided to go to war...a war of choice.

And lastly,the continuing challenge with Pakistan..playing both sides of the "political-military border".

How Afghanistan finally evolves will be part of another chapter in the..... Great Game.

Sandman02

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 10:26am

I had the honor of spending a year working with the ANA in 2006-2007 in RC North and I wish I could say that this was surprising.

Sadly, the Pashtun minority in Northern Afghanistan (Especially in Baghlan and Kunduz Provinces) live in villages that have not been the focus of much of the CERP and other development funds. Leaving open an opportunity for the Taliban.

It has only been in the last year or so that Germany has lifted most of the restrictions on ROE that had limited previous efforts to prevent this activity from growing.