Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Friday that the United States could start holding Afghanistan’s government accountable for corruption by withholding money for projects “where we control the flow of dollars.”
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN
Partisan Divide Widens as Obama Considers Afghanistan Policy - Dan Balz, Washington Post. As President Obama nears a decision on Afghanistan, he faces a partisan divide in public opinion that is pulling him in opposite directions. His recent statements about the decision suggest that he is trying to accommodate the views with a war strategy that can be successful and contained. This is the dilemma Obama faced when, as a candidate, he cast his lot with Afghanistan while opposing the war in Iraq. The issue that was avoidable then, but is no longer, is how to put down al-Qaeda and the Taliban without being drawn into an endless conflict in a nation that has swallowed up outside forces through the centuries. The lengthy policy debate inside the administration has spun out of control as it nears its finish, with damaging leaks and counterleaks. White House officials insist that getting the policy right is the goal of this long process, and that the president is far more worried about making the wrong decision than about being criticized for seeming to be unable to make up his mind. The internal debate began with the bleak assessment by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the commander of US forces in Afghanistan, who said conditions were deteriorating and included a request for an additional 40,000 troops to try to turn around the war. It has morphed into a much broader debate, a virtual Rubik's Cube in which Obama is weighing not just the number of troops, but when and where they would be deployed as well as how long they should be committed there and at what cost.
As Afghans Resist Taliban, US Spurs Rise of Militias - Dexter Filkens, New York Times. American and Afghan officials have begun helping a number of anti-Taliban militias that have independently taken up arms against insurgents in several parts of Afghanistan, prompting hopes of a large-scale tribal rebellion against the Taliban. The emergence of the militias, which took some leaders in Kabul by surprise, has so encouraged the American and Afghan officials that they are planning to spur the growth of similar armed groups across the Taliban heartland in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The American and Afghan officials say they are hoping the plan, called the Community Defense Initiative, will bring together thousands of gunmen to protect their neighborhoods from Taliban insurgents. Already there are hundreds of Afghans who are acting on their own against the Taliban, officials say. The endeavor represents one of the most ambitious - and one of the riskiest - plans for regaining the initiative against the Taliban, who are fighting more vigorously than at any time since 2001. By harnessing the militias, American and Afghan officials hope to rapidly increase the number of Afghans fighting the Taliban.
Hamid Karzai Ministers Face Afghanistan Corruption Charges - Marie Colvin, The Times. Warrants have been signed for the arrest of two Afghan cabinet ministers on charges of theft and fraud, highlighting the extent of alleged corruption in the government of President Hamid Karzai. Investigators in Afghanistan’s fledgling major crimes taskforce, under the tutelage of British and American police officers, have gathered sufficient evidence to charge Sediq Chakari, the minister of hajj and Islamic affairs. A second cabinet minister has also had a warrant issued against him but his name has not been confirmed. The warrants were handed to Karzai earlier this month, according to a prosecution source. Under Afghan law, Karzai must suspend a minister’s immunity before the warrant can be served. Whether the president allows his ministers to be prosecuted is seen as an early test of a promise to clean up his government. Karzai, whose second five-year term began last week, has been warned by western backers that rampant corruption, a crooked police force and alliances with drug-dealing war lords are fuelling the Taliban insurgency.
Afghanistan Troop Surge Could be a Slow Rollout - Gordon Lubold, Christian Science Monitor. When it comes to deploying additional forces to Afghanistan, the Pentagon confronts an infrastructural problem summed up by one senior military official: "Iraq is stuck in 1950, Afghanistan is stuck in 1310." President Obama's decision on deploying more troops to Afghanistan is still a week or so away. But operating under the assumption that more forces may be headed there in the coming months, Pentagon planners have been trying to figure out how fast they can get troops and equipment on the ground. The bottom line: Afghanistan's terrible infrastructure means that any surge of troops there could be more like a slow roll, compared with Iraq. "I anticipate that as soon as the president makes a decision, we can probably begin flowing some forces pretty quickly after that," Mr. Gates told reporters Thursday. "But it is a bigger challenge than certainly was the case in Iraq." After President Bush decided to surge forces into Iraq, it took roughly five months for about 30,000 forces to hit the ground - about a brigade per month plus supporting forces. Afghanistan, however, is a landlocked country with few serviceable roads, making air transport of personnel and equipment the only practical choice. But the country only has two airfields - in Kandahar in the south and Bagram in the northeast. That limits the rate at which forces and their equipment can be deployed.
Rocket is Fired at Afghan Hotel Housing Foreign Humanitarian Workers - Laura King, Los Angeles Times. Suspected insurgents fired a rocket Saturday at a luxury hotel that had previously come under attack, injuring two people and rekindling fears that foreigners are being targeted in the capital. The projectile hit just outside the perimeter wall of the hotel, where a number of foreign humanitarian workers, forced to relocate after a deadly strike on a UN guesthouse last month, have been staying. The Serena, Afghanistan's only five-star hotel, was the scene of a major attack in January 2008, when it was stormed by gunmen and suicide bombers in a coordinated assault that killed seven people. Security was tightened after that strike, and the hotel now resembles a fortress. With a night's stay costing more than most Afghans earn in a month, the clientele is nearly all foreign. Police officers and soldiers cordoned off the area after the early-evening attack, which left a small pile of rubble near the perimeter wall. Witnesses said one of the injured was a policeman and the other appeared to be a civilian. Insurgents have been lobbing rockets into the capital with increasing frequency. The poorly aimed projectiles, usually fired from the city's outskirts, rarely cause serious damage or injuries, but do generate a sense of unease.
Survey of Pakistan’s Young Predicts ‘Disaster’ if Their Needs Aren’t Addressed - Sabrina Tavernese, New York Times. Pakistan will face a “demographic disaster” if it does not address the needs of its young generation, the largest in the country’s history, whose views reflect a deep disillusionment with government and democracy, according to a report released here on Saturday. The report, commissioned by the British Council and conducted by the Nielsen research company, drew a picture of a deeply frustrated young generation that feels abandoned by its government and despondent about its future. An overwhelming majority of young Pakistanis say their country is headed in the wrong direction, the report said, and only 1 in 10 has confidence in the government. Most see themselves as Muslim first and Pakistani second, and they are now entering a work force in which the lion’s share cannot find jobs, a potentially volatile situation if the government cannot address its concerns. “This is a real wake-up call for the international community,” said David Steven, a fellow at the Center for International Cooperation at New York University, who was an adviser on the report. “You could get rapid social and economic change. But the other route will lead to a nightmare that would unfold over 20 to 30 years.” The report provides an unsettling portrait of a difficult time for Pakistan, a 62-year-old nuclear-armed country that is fighting an insurgency in its western mountains and struggling to provide for its rapidly expanding population. The population has risen by almost half in just 20 years, a pace that is double the world average, according to the report.
Afghan Tribes to the Rescue? - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion. While military officers wait for President Obama to conclude his agonizingly slow review of Afghanistan policy, they've been reading a paper by an Army Special Forces operative arguing that the only hope for success in that country is to work with tribal leaders. This tribal approach has widespread support, in principle. The problem is that, in practice, the United States has often moved in the opposite direction in recent years. Rather than supporting tribal leaders, American policies have sometimes had the effect of undermining their ability to stand up to the Taliban. The paper by Maj. Jim Gant, "One Tribe at a Time," has been spinning around the Internet for a month. It contends that in an Afghanistan that has never had a strong central government, "nothing else will work" than a decentralized, bottom-up approach. "We must support the tribal system because it is the single, unchanging political, social and cultural reality in Afghan society," he insists. Gant recounts his experience leading a Special Forces "A-team" in Konar province in 2003. His soldiers briefly became part of the Pashtun tribal family, fighting alongside a local leader whose followers straddled the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It's a passionate story that evokes an Afghan warrior culture that has enticed foreign adventurers for 150 years.
No Substitute for Victory - William Kristol and Frederick W. Kagan, Weekly Standard opinion. Can the United States win the war in Afghanistan? The antiwar left has long held the war is unwinnable. Now some conservatives are arguing that President Obama's weakness and indecision forecast American failure- - and that, if we're going to fail, we should just get out now. We would be the last to defend Obama's indefensible dithering. But the war in Afghanistan remains both winnable and worth winning - even with Obama as president. And no form of withdrawal or defeat is consistent with safeguarding key American interests in a volatile and dangerous region of the world. President Obama's apparent reluctance to pursue the fight does not inspire confidence. But he did send General Stanley McChrystal to take command, along with 21,000 additional troops. Despite efforts by political operatives around the president to push him toward withdrawal now, the president may yet do the right thing- - soon, please! - and provide General McChrystal with the forces he needs to pursue decisive operations in 2010. And the president might put real effort into explaining his decision and the war's importance to the American people. In any case, to the extent the administration doesn't seem sufficiently stalwart or willing to provide those in the field the resources they need, a loyal opposition should press the administration to do the right thing, rather than relieving it of its responsibilities by preemptively deciding it won't.
IRAQ
Iraqi Lawmakers Delay Vote on Electoral Law - Voice of America. An Iraqi parliament session aimed at resolving a deadlock on an electoral law required for general elections in January has ended without agreement. Iraqi lawmakers had been expected to vote Saturday on the much-delayed law, but parliamentary officials say the proceeding was delayed until Sunday in hope of finding a solution acceptable to all political blocs. Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi vetoed the proposed election law several days ago, saying he wants more representation for Iraqis living abroad, many of whom are Sunni Arabs. After the veto, Iraq's electoral commission halted general-election preparations. Parliament has been considering whether the Sunni vice president had the legal right to scrap legislation presented to the presidency council. Members of Iraq's electoral commission say the deadlock over the election law likely will delay the January election. US Vice President Joe Biden discussed the Iraqi elections with US Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill by telephone Friday. The White House says Hill reported on efforts to ratify the election law so voting can go forward early next year.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq Regaining Strength - Ernesto Londoño, Washington Post. The Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq has rebounded in strength in recent months and appears to be launching a concerted effort to cripple the Iraqi government as US troops withdraw, Iraqi and American officials say. The group asserted responsibility for four powerful bombings that targeted five government buildings in Baghdad in August and October - the deadliest attacks directed at the government in more than six years of war. Authorities say al-Qaeda in Iraq intends to carry out additional high-profile attacks in the months ahead and is attempting to regain its foothold in former strongholds just outside the capital. The strategy represents a shift in tactics from the group's efforts to kindle the kind of sectarian violence that brought Iraq to the brink of anarchy in 2007. The group suffered major setbacks after the "surge" in US troops to Iraq that year, but American and Iraqi officials say that al-Qaeda in Iraq has found more recent success by enlisting other groups in an effort aimed at undermining elections scheduled for January and the formation of a new government. Although the group has lost many top leaders, funding sources and popular support, it stands to gain from a deeply split political establishment, growing Sunni resentment toward the Shiite-led government, disjointed Iraqi security agencies and the diminishing ability of US forces to engage in combat operations in Iraq.
IRAN
Iranian Commander Announces Air Defense Maneuvers - Edward Yeranian, Voice of America. A top Iranian military commander is saying, Saturday, that the country's defense forces will conduct air defense maneuvers during the coming week. Iran's announcement comes after representatives of six world powers expressed disappointment, Friday, over its refusal to accept a United Nations-draft deal to send 80 percent of its lightly-enriched uranium stockpile abroad. Iran appears to be playing both the military and the diplomatic fronts, Saturday, as the world awaits its next move in the as yet fruitless negotiations between Tehran and top world powers over its nuclear program. Brigadier-General Ahmed Mighani, who commands a key Iranian air-defense base, told a press conference that both the Revolutionary Guard and regular armed forces were planning to stage annual war-games to simulate the defense of Iran's nuclear sites against "hypothetical enemy attacks." The general, according to Iran's Fars news agency, insisted that Tehran is following a purely defensive military doctrine. He went on to explain that the nature of combat has changed and that his forces were "testing new strategies." He described a vast series of drills and mock wargames across central, western and southern Iran for five days, beginning Sunday, that will simulate a real attack on its installations.
Iran Plans Air-Defense Drill to Protect Nuclear Facilities - Chip Cummins, Wall Street Journal. Iran announced Saturday it would conduct a large-scale, air-defense exercise - a week-long drill that comes as Western powers ratchet up pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. State media quoted a senior air-defense commander saying the exercise, scheduled to start Sunday, was targeted specifically at training against potential missile and aircraft threats against the country's nuclear facilities. Brig. Gen. Ahmad Miqani told state-run press on Saturday the exercise would be conducted with both the Iranian armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps over five days across a wide swath of northern, southern and western Iran. The exercise comes as the West significantly increases pressure on Tehran following Iran's refusal so far to accept a nuclear-energy deal hammered out between Iranian negotiators and counterparts from the US, France, Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency last month. The deal called for Iran to ship out the bulk of its low-enriched uranium, to be further enriched in Russia and returned to Iran for use in a medical research reactor. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said earlier this week Iran wouldn't ship its uranium out of the country, but was still open to talks about some sort of uranium exchange. Western powers reacted pessimistically to the comments, the clearest indication so far that Iran won't accept the deal without changes the US and other allies aren't likely to accept.
Cleric Wields Religion to Challenge Iran’s Theocracy - Michael Slackman, New York Times. For years, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri criticized Iran’s supreme leader and argued that the country was not the Islamic democracy it claimed to be, but his words seemed to fall on deaf ears. Now many Iranians, including some former government leaders, are listening. Ayatollah Montazeri has emerged as the spiritual leader of the opposition, an adversary the state has been unable to silence or jail because of his religious credentials and seminal role in the founding of the republic. He is widely regarded as the most knowledgeable religious scholar in Iran and once expected to become the country’s supreme leader until a falling-out with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution and Iran’s supreme leader until his death in 1989. Now, as the Iranian government has cracked down to suppress the protests that erupted after the presidential election in June and devastated the reform movement, Ayatollah Montazeri uses religion to attack the government’s legitimacy.
THE LONG WAR
Fort Hood Shooting Splits America Over Islamic Terror Motive - Patrik Jonsson, Christian Science Monitor. As US Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan faces his first court hearing in a San Antonio hospital, America is split over a fundamental question: Is Hasan an Islamic terrorist? Maj. Hasan, who allegedly killed 13 and wounded dozens during a Nov. 5 rampage at Fort Hood, Texas, is charged with 13 counts of murder, which could lead to a death penalty conviction at an Army court martial. Terror charges have not been filed. Pending a series of legislative, Army, and Defense Department investigations into the rampage, the Obama administration has resisted the “terror” label. And one new poll shows slightly more Americans agreeing that the Fort Hood shooting was a “killing spree” rather than “an act of terrorism.” But some US lawmakers see the terrorism analogy as fundamentally important to the inquiry - not just into Hasan’s motivations, but to national security generally in the Fort Hood aftermath. At Senate hearings this week, some witnesses testified that “political correctness” undermined efforts to pinpoint Hasan and neutralize him before the shooting. “The difference between the White House’s determination and many lawmakers’ perception is that President Obama and his advisors do not want to consider the massacre as an act of terror ‘yet’ while Senator Joe Lieberman and other legislators in both houses do see it as an ideologically motivated terror action,” says Walid Phares, an expert on Islamic jihad at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a conservative think tank in Washington.
A Terror Suspect With Feet in East and West - Ginger Thompson, New York Times. The trip from a strict Pakistani boarding school to a bohemian bar in Philadelphia has defined David Headley’s life, according to those who know the middle-age man at the center of a global terrorism investigation. Raised by his father in Pakistan as a devout Muslim, Mr. Headley arrived back here at 17 to live with his American mother, a former socialite who ran a bar called the Khyber Pass. Today, Mr. Headley is an Islamic fundamentalist who once liked to get high. He has a traditional Pakistani wife, who lives with their children in Chicago, but also an American girlfriend - a makeup artist in New York - according to a relative and friends. Depending on the setting, he alternates between the name he adopted in the United States, David Headley, and the Urdu one he was given at birth, Daood Gilani. Even his eyes - one brown, the other green - hint at roots in two places. Mr. Headley, an American citizen, is accused of being the lead operative in a loose-knit group of militants plotting revenge against a Danish newspaper that published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad. The indictment against him portrays a man who moved easily between different worlds. The profile that has emerged of him since his arrest, however, suggests that Mr. Headley felt pulled between two cultures and ultimately gravitated toward an extremist Islamic one.
Sept. 11 Defendant Seeks a Trial, and a Platform - Scott Shane, New York Times. The five men the Justice Department has said will be charged in the attacks of Sept. 11 intend to plead not guilty so they can express their political and religious views during a trial, the lawyer for one of the men said on Saturday. The lawyer, Scott L. Fenstermaker, said that during a meeting at the Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, prison on Tuesday, his client, Ali Abd al-Aziz Ali, expressed the desire for a trial despite his intention to admit his role in the attacks and seek “martyrdom” through execution. “He acknowledges that he helped plan the 9/11 attacks, and he says he’s looking forward to dying,” Mr. Fenstermaker said of Mr. Ali. But he said he expected Mr. Ali and his co-defendants to plead not guilty “so they can have a trial and try to get their message out.” Mr. Ali, also known as Ammar al-Baluchi, is a nephew of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the chief organizer of the 2001 plot. Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. announced on Nov. 13 that Mr. Mohammed, Mr. Ali and three other alleged 9/11 plotters would be tried in federal criminal court. Mr. Fenstermaker said Mr. Ali told him all five men would seek a trial. The report of Mr. Ali’s comments may add to complaints from critics of Mr. Holder’s decision who favored military trials in Cuba and have said a criminal trial will provide terrorists with a propaganda platform. Defenders of the move say military commissions, too, would have given the defendants a public showcase for their views.
Malign Neglect - Stephen F. Hayes, Weekly Standard opinion. Attorney General Eric Holder spoke with confidence and authority before the Senate Judiciary Committee last Wednesday when asked how he would prevent another attack like the one committed by Nidal Malik Hasan at Fort Hood. Holder promised a "sound investigation" of the shooting. It was a nice try, but Holder's tone did little to disguise the speciousness of his words. We already know the answer to the three questions Holder posed. There were flags that were missed. There was miscommunication. And there was a lack of communication. The relevant question is not whether there were errors, but why - after eight years of restructuring our national security and intelligence infrastructure to prevent such failures - there were grave errors that cost 13 people their lives. The answer to that question is becoming all too clear: a deadly combination of political correctness and institutional stupidity. And in the days since the Fort Hood attack, those characteristics have remained on prominent display - both at the top of the Justice Department and in its ranks.
AMERICAS
US, Mexico Align Against Common Foe: Brutal Narcotics Trade - William Booth and Steve Fainaru, Washinton Post. To avenge the arrest of their leader, Mexican drug cartel commandos went on a rampage this summer across the lawless state of Michoacan, seizing 12 Mexican police officers and dumping their bound and stripped corpses in a pile beside a busy highway. The slaughtered federal agents, it later emerged, had something in common: All had been vetted and trained by the US government to work alongside its anti-narcotics agents. Officials said the American connection made them high-value targets for the cartels, which are lashing back ruthlessly against a military crackdown involving unprecedented cooperation between the two countries. After decades of mistrust and sometimes betrayal, Mexican and US authorities are increasingly setting aside their differences to unite against a common enemy. According to interviews in Washington and Mexico City, the two countries are sharing sensitive intelligence and computer technology, military hardware and, perhaps most importantly, US know-how to train and vet Mexican agents. Police and soldiers secretly on the cartels' payroll have long poisoned efforts at cross-border cooperation against some of the world's most dangerous criminal organizations.
Mexican American Former Anti-drug Chief's Reputation on Trial - Sebastian Rotella, Los Angeles Times. Around here (Nogales, AZ), the grim joke goes, most people work for the government or the mafias. Or both. Richard Padilla Cramer apparently had bested the temptations that come with the territory. During three decades in border law enforcement, he made the most of his pitch-perfect Spanish and talent for undercover work. He locked up corrupt officials, racked up drug busts and rose through the ranks. He retired after a coveted stint as a US attache for Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Mexico, the land he had left as a child. At 56, the former anti-drug chief was an immigrant success story: a decorated Vietnam veteran; a youthful, solidly built grandfather whose three children served in the military and law enforcement. So his arrest in September resounded in the close-knit law enforcement community like a bomb blast in the desert. The alleged corruption goes beyond the typical case of an inspector waving drug loads north. In a trial set to begin Monday in Miami, authorities will charge that Cramer sold his talents to drug lords while in Mexico, acting in effect as a counter-espionage consultant helping to unmask informants and set up smuggling deals. Raising fears of gangsters buying the expertise of US law enforcement, investigators predict that the case will widen to bring down more agents.
Hugo Chavez Praises Carlos the Jackal - The Times. Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan President has courted international outrage by praising Carlos the Jackal, the notorious Venezuelan terrorist responsible for a series of bombings and assassinations in the 1970s, and defending a range of rogue leaders including Idi Amin, the infamous former Ugandan dictator. During a speech to international socialist politicians on Friday, Mr Chavez described Carlos, whose real name is Ilich Ramirez Sanchez as a 'revolutionary fighter' rather than a terrorist. "I defend him. It doesn't matter to me what they say tomorrow in Europe," said Mr Chavez, to applause from his audience. He also praised Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran, who he called 'brothers.' Ramirez is serving a life sentence in a French prison for the 1975 murders of two French secret agents and an alleged informant. He has testified that he led a 1975 attack that killed three people at the OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria. He also has been linked to the 1976 hijacking of an Air France jet en route to Uganda. Mr Chavez said Ramirez had aided the cause of the Palestinians, something the Venezuelan leader has also supported while verbally clashing with Israel. He has previously called Carlos a friend, and is reported to have exchanged letters with him in the past. The controversial president sought to defend other leaders he said had been wrongly labeled 'bad guys', including Mr Mugabe and Mr Ahmadinejad and cast doubts on whether Mr Amin, whose regime was notorious for torturing and killing thousands of opponents in the 1970s, was truly as brutal as he was reputed to be.
ASIA PACIFIC
Death Toll at Chinese Mine Rises to 87 - Keith Richburg, Washington Post. The death toll from a powerful gas explosion Saturday at a coal mine in northeastern China has risen to 87, with 21 miners still trapped more than a third of a mile underground, according to media reports. The toll, which more than doubled overnight, makes it the worst mining accident of this year, and again highlights China's poor mine safety record. Some 3,215 miners died in accidents last year, and 3,786 died in 2007. Hundreds of rescuers were working in frigid temperatures Sunday to free those trapped in the Xingxing mine, in Heilongjiang province near the border with Russia. The rescuers had located eight of the trapped miners, according to state media. The explosion occurred in the early morning hours when 528 miners were working underground in the state-owned mine in the city of Hegang. The blast shattered windows in nearby buildings and shook homes several miles away. About 415 miners managed to escape the blast.
Understanding China - Martin Jacques, Los Angeles Times opinion. The dynamics of President Obama's trip to China were markedly different from those evident on visits made by President Clinton and President George W. Bush. This time the Chinese made clear that they were unwilling even to discuss issues such as human rights or free speech. Why? The relationship between the countries has changed: America feels weak and China strong in their bilateral ties. This is not a temporary shift that will reverse itself once the US has escaped from its mountain of debt. Rather, it is the expression of a deep and progressive shift in the balance of power between the two nations, one that is giving the Chinese - though studiously cautious in their approach - a rising sense of self-confidence. Nor should we be surprised by the Chinese response. They may have appeared more conciliatory on previous visits by American leaders, but that was largely decorative. The Chinese have a powerful sense of their identity and worth. They have never behaved toward the West in a supplicant manner, for reasons Westerners persistently fail to understand or grasp. Ever since the Nixon-Mao rapprochement, and through the various iterations of the Sino-American relationship over the subsequent almost four decades, there has been an overriding belief in the West that eventually China would become like us: that, for example, a market economy would lead to democratization and that a free media was inevitable. This hubristic outlook is deeply flawed, but it still prevails, albeit with small cracks of self-doubt starting to appear.
EUROPE
In Turkey, Trial Casts Wide Net of Mistrust - Dan Bilefsky, New York Times. Few here doubt that the case began with something threatening: in June 2007, 27 hand grenades and fuses were found in the attic of a house in an Istanbul slum. Investigators claimed they were stashed there by an ultranationalist retired officer and they were later linked to an elaborate coup plot. But the question many are asking, inside and outside Turkey, is whether the Islamic-inspired government is exaggerating the threat in order to wage a much larger battle against this moderate Muslim nation’s secular establishment. Since 2007, 300 people have been detained during the investigation of an underground group known as Ergenekon, including a writer of erotic novels, four-star generals and other military officers, professors, editors and underworld figures - some of whom appear to have committed no offense greater than speaking in favor of Turkey as a secular state. “Ergenekon has become a larger project in which the investigation is being used as a tool to sweep across civic society and cleanse Turkey of all secular opponents,” said Aysel Celikel, a former justice minister and president of a charity that finances the secular education of underprivileged rural girls. “As such, the country’s democracy, its rule of law and its freedom of expression are at stake.” In all, 194 people have been charged, accused of trying to overthrow the government as part of Ergenekon (pronounced ahr-GEN-eh-kahn), named after a mythic Turkish valley. Prosecutors contend that they planned to engage in civil unrest, assassinations and terrorism to create chaos and undermine the stability of Turkey as groundwork for a coup.
Hungary Zigzags When it Comes to Russia - Megan K. Stack, Los Angeles Times. There's a museum in Budapest called the House of Terror. It has a metal awning with the word "terror" carved out of it, and when the sun is high, the people below step on terror, pass through terror, because the shadow of the word hangs in the air before it hits the ground. Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall signaled the end of Soviet dominance in Hungary, Russia's ghosts linger in a fledgling political system, and its oil and gas muscle spooks the Hungarian government. Russia exists today as an anxiety; to a rising generation, an abstraction. And yet, to some - an opportunity. The fall of the Soviet empire freed Hungary to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union and reinvent itself, along with other parts of the surrounding region, as the eastern edge of a unified Europe. As an increasingly assertive Russia has capitalized on its oil and gas wealth, some former satellites have remained hostile and frightened; others have opted for greater cooperation with Moscow. Hungary's dealings have been more ambiguous. Business and politics are typified by mixed impulses - tentative steps together, sudden flashes of vulnerability and push-back.
MIDDLE EAST
Gaza Militants Agree to Halt Rocket Fire - Associated Press. Hamas announced Saturday evening that it has reached an agreement with other militant groups in Gaza to stop firing rockets at southern Israeli towns to prevent retaliatory attacks. Hamas has mostly refrained from firing rockets since January when Israel ended a three week offensive in Gaza aimed at stopping almost daily militant attacks. Other Gaza militant groups have since continued with rocket attacks, but on a much smaller scale than before. Hamas interior minister Fathi Hamad told reporters Saturday evening that all militant factions had now agreed to a cease fire.
It's Up to Netanyahu - Jim Hoagland, Washington Post opinion. Few things are as dangerous in the Middle East as well-intentioned outsiders. They invariably bring unintended consequences upon those they would guide to a better life. Ask Job. Or consider the case of Mahmoud Abbas, whose hurt and fury over foreign meddling has triggered his threat to quit as Palestinian leader. No one could accuse President Obama or Judge Richard Goldstone of South Africa of harboring ill will toward the president of the Palestinian Authority. But their separate worthy initiatives have resulted in pushing Abbas into a political dead end that complicates the chances for Israeli-Palestinian peace. The Obama administration's approach to the Middle East peace process is on shaky ground. Plan A was to get concessions from Arab states to balance an Israeli freeze on settlement construction. After months of being stiffed by both sides, the administration expects that Israel will finally offer some movement on the settlements issue in the days ahead and clear the way for "final status" negotiations that would start with provisional borders for an independent Palestinian state.
EVENTS
An Evening of Counterinsurgency at the Pritzker Military Library. Hearts and minds? Overrated. If you want to run a successful counterinsurgency, it all starts with the person at the top. On Thursday, December 3rd, Mark Moyar will appear at the Pritzker Military Library to discuss his new book, A Question of Command: Counterinsurgency from the Civil War to Iraq. This event is free and open to the public. The presentation will begin at 6 p.m., preceded by a reception for Library members at 5 p.m. It will be webcast live on pritzkermilitarylibrary.org and recorded for later broadcast on WYCC-TV/Channel 20. Moyar takes issue with much of the current U.S. Army / Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual, which guided the “surge” in Iraq. Though its creation was overseen by Gen. David Petraeus, whose leadership he considers a near-perfect model for counterinsurgency, Moyar finds the general’s most important qualities de-valued in the manual, which suffers from what he calls a “population-centric” emphasis toward defeating an insurgency by depriving it of public support. Using case studies from the Philippines, Vietnam, and other conflicts over the last 150 years, Moyar argues instead that counterinsurgencies succeed or fail based on the leaders involved: their ability to inspire subordinates, adapt to complex situations, unify civilian and military efforts, and identify capable sub-commanders, both from their own ranks and the target population. Though A Question of Command describes historical insurgencies around the world, Moyar posits that the American South, after the Civil War, may have been the best model for the situation in Iraq. Whereas Grant and Sherman had led major victories on the battlefield, it was lesser-known leaders like Brig. Gen. Robert F. Catterson and Maj. Lewis Merrill who had the most success against insurgent forces such as the Ku Klux Klan. A Question of Command attempts to capture the qualities and decisions that set those leaders apart, making their successors easier to find. Mark Moyar is Professor of National Security Affairs at the Marine Corps University. He is also the author of Triumph Forsaken: the Vietnam War, 1954-1965 and Phoenix and the Birds of Prey: Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism in Vietnam. Moyar’s writings have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, and other publications. He received a B.A. summa cum laude from Harvard and a Ph.D. from Cambridge. Seating for this event is limited, so reservations are recommended. Call 312.587.0234 or email events@pritzkermilitarylibrary.net.
BOOKS
Horse Soldiers: The Extraordinary Story of a Band of Soldiers Who Rode to Victory in Afghanistan - Doug Stanton.
Horse Soldiers tells the important story of the Special Forces soldiers who first put American boots on the ground in Afghanistan in 2001. Fighting alongside the Northern Alliance, the troops, often riding on horseback, achieved several important victories against the Taliban.
War 2.0: Irregular Warfare in the Information Age - Thomas Rid and Marc Hecker.
War 2.0: Irregular Warfare in the Information Age argues that two intimately connected trends are putting modern armies under huge pressure to adapt: the rise of insurgencies and the rise of the Web. Both in cyberspace and in warfare, the grassroots public has assumed increasing importance in recent years. After the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, Web 2.0 rose from the ashes. This newly interactive and participatory form of the Web promotes and enables offline action. Similarly, after Rumsfeld's attempt to transform the US military into a lean, lethal, computerized force crashed in Iraq in 2003, counterinsurgency rose from the ashes. Counterinsurgency is a social form of war - indeed, the US Army calls it armed social work - in which the local matrix population becomes the center of strategic gravity and public opinion at home the critical vulnerability.
The New Counterinsurgency Era: Transforming the US Military for Modern Wars - David H. Ucko.
Confronting insurgent violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US military has recognized the need to "re-learn" counterinsurgency. But how has the Department of Defense with its mixed efforts responded to this new strategic environment? Has it learned anything from past failures? In The New Counterinsurgency Era, David Ucko examines DoD's institutional obstacles and initially slow response to a changing strategic reality.
Journey into Darkness: Genocide in Rwanda - Thomas P. Odom.
In July 1994, Thomas P. Odom was part of the US Embassy team that responded to the Goma refugee crisis. He witnessed the deaths of 70,000 refugees in a single week. In the previous three months of escalating violence, the Rwandan genocide had claimed 800,000 dead. Now, in this vivid and unsettling new book, Odom offers the first insider look at these devastating events before, during, and after the genocide.
Joker One: A Marine Platoon’s Story of Courage - Donovan Campbell.
Donovan Campbell, first as a Marine and then as a writer, shows us that the dominant emotion in war isn’t hatred or anger or fear. It’s love. His story stands as a poignant tribute to his men–their courage, their dedication, their skill, and their love for one another, even unto death.
The Battle for Peace: A Frontline Vision of America's Power and Purpose - Anthony Zinni and Tony Koltz
The intellectual complement to Zinni and Clancy's bestselling Battle Ready (2004), a narrative memoir salted with specific policy recommendations, this volume provides the former US Central Command chief's analysis of America's current global position. Zinni begins by asserting that America's status as "the most powerful nation in the history of the planet" has created a de facto empire. The US has no choice: if it fails to take the lead, nothing significant happens. At the same time, Americans must recognize that, in a global age, there can be no zero-sum games.
The Unforgiving Minute: A Soldier's Education - Craig Mullaney
The Unforgiving Minute is the ultimate's soldier's book - universal in its raw emotion and its understanding of the larger issues of life and death. Mullaney, a master storyteller, plunges the depths of self-doubt, endurance, and courage. The result: a riveting, suspenseful human story, beautifully told. This is a book written under fire - a lyrical, spellbinding tale of war, love, and courage. The Unforgiving Minute is the Three Cups of Tea of soldiering.
Great Powers: America and the World after Bush - Thomas P.M. Barnett
In civilian and military circles alike, The Pentagon’s New Map became one of the most talked about books of 2004. “A combination of Tom Friedman on globalization and Carl von Clausewitz on war, [it is] the red-hot book among the nation’s admirals and generals,” wrote David Ignatius in The Washington Post. Barnett’s second book, Blueprint for Action, demonstrated how to put the first book’s principles to work. Now, in Great Powers, Barnett delivers his most sweeping - and important - book of all.
The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One - David Kilcullen
A remarkably fresh perspective on the War on Terror. Kilcullen takes us "on the ground" to uncover the face of modern warfare, illuminating both the big global war (the "War on Terrorism") and its relation to the associated "small wars" across the globe: Iraq, Afghanistan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Chechnya, Pakistan and North Africa.
The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008 - Thomas Ricks
Thomas E. Ricks uses hundreds of hours of exclusive interviews with top officers in Iraq and extraordinary on-the-ground reportage to document the inside story of the Iraq War since late 2005 as only he can, examining the events that took place as the military was forced to reckon with itself, the surge was launched, and a very different war began.
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
