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--Daniel Marston, Small Wars Journal
TRANSITION
Bush Prepares Crisis Briefings to Aid Obama - Peter Baker, New York Times
The White House has prepared more than a dozen contingency plans to help guide President-elect Barack Obama if an international crisis erupts in the opening days of his administration, part of an elaborate operation devised to smooth the first transition of power since Sept. 11, 2001.
The memorandums envision a variety of volatile possibilities, like a North Korean nuclear explosion, a cyberattack on American computer systems, a terrorist strike on United States facilities overseas or a fresh outbreak of instability in the Middle East, according to people briefed on them. Each then outlines options for Mr. Obama to consider.
The contingency planning goes beyond what other administrations have done, with President Bush and Mr. Obama vowing to work in tandem to ensure a more efficient transition in a time of war and terrorist threat. The commission that investigated the Sept. 11 attacks, noting problems during the handover from President Bill Clinton to Mr. Bush, called for a better process “since a catastrophic attack could occur with little or no notice,” as its report put it.
More at The New York Times.
UNITED STATES
A Gentler Hegemony - Robert Kaplan, Washington Post opinion
Declinism is in the air. The latest conventional wisdom is that the combination of the disastrous Iraq war, the military and economic rise of Asia, and the steep recession in the West has chastened America, ending its period of dominance in world affairs. It is time for us to be humble.
There is a lot of truth to this, but it goes too far. For decline itself -- as a concept -- is overrated. Britain's Royal Navy went into relative decline beginning in the 1890s, even as Great Britain remained powerful enough to help save the West in two world wars over the next half-century.
More at The Washington Post.
SOUTH ASIA
New US President to Face Volatile South Asia - Gary Thomas, Voice of America
Barack Obama assumes the US presidency at a time of tension and uncertainty in South Asia. Pakistan is trying to allay heightened concerns in the West and among its next-door neighbors that it is a haven for terrorists, while Afghanistan is beset by a strengthened insurgency. Experts say the new US administration will need to balance its dealings with Kabul and Islamabad.
Analysts said Barack Obama must walk a tightrope of pressuring Pakistan to get tough on the terrorists hiding within its borders without undermining the country's newly minted democratic government, while shoring up the fragile Afghan government. Taliban and al-Qaida fighters have been using Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, or FATA, as a sanctuary and staging ground from which to strike US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. Attacks were up sharply in 2008 over the previous year.
According to published reports, the United States has responded with increased strikes by unmanned Predator drone aircraft and at least some covert cross-border attacks in FATA by elite special operations units. US officials neither confirm nor deny these reports. During the presidential campaign, Barack Obama sparked controversy, particularly in Pakistan, when he said he would be willing attack Taliban and al-Qaida sanctuaries inside Pakistan.
More at Voice of America.
IRAQ
As Iraq Calms, Mosul Remains a Battle Front - Jane Arraf, Christian Science Monitor
Attacks have dropped dramatically across Iraq, falling by 80 percent since March, when US and Iraqi forces were locked in deadly fights with Sunni insurgents and Shiite militiamen. Today conditions in many parts of the country appear ripe for US forces to begin pulling back and for Iraqis to take the lead.
But in the northern city of Mosul, violence still rages. US and Iraqi forces continue to battle the latest incarnation of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which considers the city a key asset in its self-declared Islamic state. Mosul's location near the Syrian border, where foreign fighters cross into Iraq, adds to its strategic importance. The gains here are fragile, and neither Iraqi nor American military leaders can afford to see it return to insurgents' hands.
So when US troops withdraw to their bases next June under an agreement with the Iraqi government, there's a good chance they will stay put in Mosul, according to American and Iraqi officials.
"In this climate we can't do without American forces," says Mosul Mayor Zuhair al-Aaraji. "Our government is still too weak to fully support the Iraqi forces." Last Saturday Gen. Ray Odierno, commander of American forces in Iraq, said that despite the joint US-Iraqi security pact that calls for US troops to leave Iraqi cities, some battalions could remain in urban centers. "It's important that we maintain enough presence here that we can help them get through this year of transition," he said.
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
PIRACY
UN Authorizes Land, Air Attacks on Somali Pirates - Colum Lynch, Washington Post
The UN Security Council voted unanimously Tuesday to authorize nations to conduct military raids, on land and by air, against pirates plying the waters off the Somalia coast even as two more ships were reportedly hijacked at sea.
The vote represented a major escalation by the world's big powers in the fight against the pirates, who have disrupted commerce along one of the world's most active sea routes and acquired tens of millions of dollars in ransom. It came as China -- which has had several ships commandeered in recent months -- said it is seriously considering joining US, European and Russian warships policing the region.
The US-drafted resolution authorizes nations to "use all necessary measures that are appropriate in Somalia" in pursuit of pirates, as long as they are approved by the country's transitional federal government. The resolution also urges states to deploy naval vessels and military aircraft to carry out the operations, and it calls for the creation of a regional office to coordinate the international effort.
More at The Washington Post, Associated Press and Voice of America.
Should Ground Troops Hunt Pirates in Somalia? - Shashank Bengali, McClatchy Newspapers (Christian Science Monitor)
A Bush administration proposal to allow foreign forces to go ashore in Somalia to hunt the country's notorious pirates is getting a cool reception from US military leaders, regional analysts, and some Somali officials.
The proposal – which Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to put forward Tuesday at the United Nations Security Council – is the boldest yet aimed at stopping the pirates, who've hijacked 55 ships this year, secured tens of millions of dollars in ransoms, and kneecapped maritime trade between Europe and Asia.
Somalia's long East African coastline is a lawless stretch of empty beaches and mountain hollows, and experts think that foreign forces lack the military intelligence to carry out well-targeted land attacks. They warn that civilian casualties would stoke anti-Western sentiment in the overwhelmingly Muslim nation, where powerful Islamist militias are threatening to topple an internationally backed – but desperately weak – interim government.
It's unlikely that American forces would be involved, given the lingering memories of 1993, when a US Black Hawk helicopter was shot down over the Somali capital of Mogadishu, resulting in the deaths of 18 servicemen. The current struggles of a small African Union peacekeeping mission also raise doubts that any country would be willing to send ground forces into Somalia.
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Policing Afghanistan - Weekly Standard opinion
In Afghanistan, an Air of Hope - National Post opinion
India / Pakistan
Pakistan Peace Process 'Paused' - BBC News
India Lawyers Refuse to Represent Gunman Captured in Mumbai Attacks - VOA
Mental Health Workers Overwhelmed Since Mumbai Attacks - LA Times
Iraq
US Basra Role as British Troops Prepare for Exit - The Times
Iraqi Envoy Urges Further US Support - Voice of America
Toy Guns Aren't Child's Play for Iraq's Military - Associated Press
Iraqi Shoe-Hurling Journalist to Face Judge on Wednesday - New York Times
Shoe Thrower Moved to Judicial Custody - Associated Press
Iran
World Leaders Clash on Iran Sanctions - Washington Times
United States
America's New Foreign Legions - Weekly Standard opinion
World
WFP Seeks 'Rescue Package' For World's Hungry - Voice of America
Australia
$100bn Extra to Make Us a Regional Power - The Australian
Africa
Darfur Civilians 'Seized as Slaves by Sudan Military' - Daily Telegraph
'Thousands Made Slaves' in Darfur - BBC News
Africans Join Forces to Fight the LRA - Christian Science Monitor
Zimbabwe Air Force Chief Is Attacked - Associated Press
Zimbabwe: Butcher of Matabeleland Shot in 'Terror Plot' - The Times
Attack on Zimbabwe Air Force Chief Adds to Tension - New York Times
Zimbabwe Rivals 'Should Both Go' - BBC News
Niger Rebels Say They Kidnapped UN Envoy - New York Times
Nigeria Holds Foreign 'Islamists' - BBC News
Offshoot of Venerable ANC Officially Formed in S. Africa - Washington Post
Defectors Throw Down the Gauntlet to ANC - The Times
New Party in South Africa Mounts Challenge to ANC - Associated Press
New South African Party Picks Ex-Official as Chief - New York Times
Somali President Names New Prime Minister - Voice of America
Somalia’s President Appoints Premier - New York Times
Kenya Moves on Somali Leader - BBC News
Americas
At Meeting in Brazil, Washington Is Scorned - New York Times
Kidnapping of US Antikidnapping Consultant Rattles Mexico - CS Monitor
Asia Pacific
Japan Quietly Seeks Global Leadership Niches - Christian Science Monitor
Anger Among China's New Middle Class - Washington Post
Europe
Dynamite Found At Store In Paris - Washington Post
Explosives Found at Paris Department Store - New York Times
Paris Bomb Scare: Jihadis, or Not? - Christian Science Monitor
TNT Discovered at Paris Department Store - Associated Press
British Doctor Is Convicted in Failed Car Bombings - New York Times
Iraqi Doctor Guilty of British Bomb Plots - The Australian
Doctor Found Guilty in London-Glasgow Bomb Plot - Los Angeles Times
Italians Arrest 100 'Costa Nostra' - Daily Telegraph
Italian Police Arrest Dozens in Sweep Aimed at Mafia Bosses - New York Times
Electoral Rot? The Russians Don’t See It - New York Times
Russia Says It May Buy Remotely Piloted Spy Planes From Israel - NY Times
Middle East
New Resolution on Mideast Peace Passes at UN - Christian Science Monitor
Mideast Awaits New Leaders, Direction in 2009 - Christian Science Monitor
Hamas Threatens to End Truce Unless Israel Eases Restrictions - Bloomberg
Leaders of Britain, Israel Discuss Jewish Settlements - Voice of America
Egypt's Sexually Harassed Women Begin to Speak Out - Los Angeles Times
100-day Peace Plan? - Washington Times opinion
South Asia
Sri Lanka Violence Leaves 145 Dead - United Press International
Heavy Fighting in North Sri Lanka - BBC News
Sri Lanka Troops, Tigers Trade Fire after Heavy Fighting - Agence France-Presse
Bangladesh Lifts Emergency Rule - BBC News
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
13 January - The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948: A Discourse to Shape America’s Discourse (Symposium). Washington, D.C. – at the Reserve Officer’s Association at the intersection of First Street and Constitution Avenue, NE. The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948 was passed as the U.S. was beginning a "war of ideology... a war unto death," as America's Ambassador to Russia described it at the time. But, beginning in the 1970's, instead of promoting international engagement through information, cultural and educational exchanges, the law was distorted into a barrier of engagement. From its propaganda and counter-propaganda intentions, it transformed into an anti-propaganda law for reasons that had little to nothing to do with concerns over domestic influence and far removed from the original intent of the law. Keynotes will be given by Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy James K. Glassman and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Support to Public Diplomacy Michael Doran. There will be four 90 minute panels – past, present, future, and Congress – that will emphasize Q&A, discourse, and debate and not presentations or monologues. Registration is free, open to the public, and required to attend. The event will be on the record with a transcript available after the event. A public report based on the proceedings will be produced. Registration and other information can be found at http://mountainrunner.us/symposium.
26-28 February - Student Conference on National Affairs (SCONA) (Conference). Texas A&M University - Memorial Student Center Complex, College Station, TX. Sponsored by Texas A&M University. The Student Conference on National Affairs at Texas A&M is in its 54th year. This years conference topic is US Interventions in Problematic Area's Around the World. It will take place from February 26th to the 28th. While the conference activities are focused toward Graduate and Undergraduate students, the speakers we have are open to the general public. Two of the at least five speakers we have confirmed are, Joe Galloway, Author of We Were Soldiers Once and Young, and James Olson, former Director of Counter Intelligence for the CIA. The other speakers will be the best individuals we can find in military, humanitarian, and business issues. We are currently interested in any individuals with a background in Humanitarian issues to speak, or individuals with professional knowledge on the topic to facilitate our student delegate roundtables. More information can be found at scona.tamu.edu and interested parties can contact scona.information@yahoo.com.