--Michael Gordon, New York Times
US FOREIGN POLICY / NATIONAL SECURITY
Success of Clinton Choice Hinges on Rapport - Michael Abramowitz and Glenn Kessler, Washington Post
Leaving the news conference in Chicago yesterday where he introduced his national security team, President-elect Barack Obama strolled out of the room arm in arm with his choice for secretary of state and onetime rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. The gesture may have been a subtle indication that Obama is aware that one of the biggest questions about his choice of Clinton is the kind of relationship they will be able to forge in the months ahead.
Many of the most successful secretaries of state, though not all, enjoyed great influence with the presidents they served, giving them crucial leverage with foreign leaders and inside the national security establishment. But Obama and Clinton are only starting to develop the kind of rapport that could lead to that trust, and the ultimate success of the senator from New York in her new role may depend as much on Obama's willingness to admit her to his inner circle as her ability to master the intricacies of the Middle East peace process or North Korea's nuclear weapons program, according to senior foreign policy officials from past administrations.
More at The Washington Post.
Obama Stresses Diplomacy with New National Security Team - Paul Richter and Christi Parsons and John McCormick, Los Angeles Times
President-elect Barack Obama on Monday introduced his national security team, made up of centrist Washington insiders, and promised an overhaul of foreign policy to give added emphasis to diplomacy and bring a "new dawn of American leadership."
Appearing at a Chicago news conference with secretary of State nominee Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and five others whom he plans to put on his team, Obama said his administration would restore US standing in the world through alliance-building and international institutions, as well as by maintaining American military might.
That power "has to be combined with the wisdom and force of our diplomacy," Obama said. He pledged that the nation would exert influence by "the power of our moral example." His words seemed aimed at drawing a contrast with the Bush administration, which has been widely seen as emphasizing military force and unilateral action.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
Gates's Top Deputies May Leave - Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post
Although President-elect Barack Obama's decision to keep Robert M. Gates at the helm of the Pentagon will provide a measure of continuity for a military fighting two wars, many of Gates's top deputies are expected to depart their jobs, according to senior defense and transition officials.
Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England, Gates's right-hand man in running the Pentagon day to day, is widely expected to leave his post, said the officials, one of whom noted that England's speechwriter is reportedly taking another job.
Leading candidates to replace England include Obama campaign adviser Richard J. Danzig, who could eventually replace Gates; Pentagon transition review team co-leader Michèle A. Flournoy; and possibly former Pentagon comptroller William J. Lynn, said Obama transition officials and sources close to the transition.
More at The Washington Post and:
With Appointments, Obama Moves On From the Campaign - New York Times
Obama Sees 'Path' Out of Iraq - Washington Times
Obama Names Team to Face A Complex Security Picture - Washington Post
Team of Rivals to Keep Obama's Promise of Change - The Times
Obama's Security 'Team of Rivals' - Christian Science Monitor
Nomination of Rice for UN Post Indicates Multilateralism Shift - Washington Post
Obama Picks Cause New Headaches - Washington Times
Mr. Obama’s Team - New York Times editorial
Team of Centrists - Washington Post editorial
Obama's National Security Balancing Act - Christian Science Monitor editorial
For the UN, a Clean Break - Los Angeles Times editorial
The 3 AM Team - National Review editorial
Continuity We Can Believe In - New York Times opinion
Terrorists Don't Wait - Washington Post opinion
Barack Obama: Steady as She Goes - National Review opinion
A Team of Whizzes - New York Times opinion
Pinch Me, Am I Dreaming? - National Review opinion
THE LONG WAR
Nuclear or Biological Attack Called Likely - Joby Warrick, Washington Post
The odds that terrorists will soon strike a major city with weapons of mass destruction are now better than even, a bipartisan congressionally mandated task force concludes in a draft study that warns of growing threats from rogue states, nuclear smuggling networks and the spread of atomic know-how in the developing world.
The sobering assessment of such threats, due for release as early as today, singled out Pakistan as a grave concern because of its terrorist networks, history of instability and arsenal of several dozen nuclear warheads. The report urged the incoming Obama administration to take "decisive action" to reduce the likelihood of a devastating attack.
More at The Washington Post and:
Domestic Military Response - Washington Times editorial
What Pakistan Won't Do, the World Should - Washington Post opinion
AFGHANISTAN
Afghan Strategy Poses Stiff Challenge for Obama - Michael Gordon, New York Times
One of the most difficult challenges President-elect Barack Obama’s national security team faces is Mr. Obama’s vow to send thousands of American troops to help defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Military experts agree that more troops are required to carry out an effective counterinsurgency campaign, but they also caution that the reinforcements are unlikely to lead to the sort of rapid turnaround that the so-called troop surge in Iraq produced after its start in 2007.
After seven years of war, Afghanistan presents a unique set of problems: a rural-based insurgency, an enemy sanctuary in neighboring Pakistan, the chronic weakness of the Afghan government, a thriving narcotics trade, poorly developed infrastructure, and forbidding terrain.
More at The New York Times.
IRAQ
US-Iraqi Accord Shows Muqtada Sadr's Diminished Clout - Tina Susman, Los Angeles Times
A lasting image from the parliamentary debate here on the US-Iraqi security plan is of a lawmaker loyal to Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr sweeping his arm across a table in a rage, hurling books, papers and a vase of flowers onto the floor of the chamber.
Ahmed Massoudi's televised tantrum, and days of Sadr loyalists shouting, pounding desks and pleading for parliament to reject the pact, made no difference. Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish lawmakers approved the Status of Forces Agreement, which sets a Dec. 31, 2011, deadline for American forces to leave Iraq. Sadr says the deal has loopholes that could extend the US presence.
The vote last week was a sign of how Sadr's clout has diminished since 2005, when his parliamentary bloc provided the boost needed to propel fellow Shiite Nouri Maliki into the prime minister's role. Now that Sadr's ultimate goal, a US exit, is in sight, questions arise about his political future.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
America's Diminishing Role in Iraq - Jane Arraf, Christian Science Monitor
A surprising development has emerged in this city's streets and its corridors of power - the United States and its 140,000 troops have become increasingly irrelevant.
Some Iraqi officials see the passage of a landmark agreement with the US last week as the beginning of a new era - one in which the US presence has become overshadowed and American military power is replaced by Iraqi political power.
"I think we are entering a new phase as a whole," says Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih. "The end of an era - of Iraqi political dynamics taking over and coinciding with the end of the Bush administration - and the end of an era with the UN Security Council resolutions and the bringing in of the Status of Forces Agreement."
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
INDIA / PAKISTAN
India Demands Pakistan Hand Over Fugitives - Robert Worth, New York Times
As tensions increased between nuclear-armed neighbors after the Mumbai attacks, the Indian foreign minister said Tuesday his country had demanded that Pakistan hand over about 20 people wanted under Indian law as “fugitives.”
The demand was made when India summoned Pakistan’s ambassador on Monday evening and told him that Pakistanis were responsible for the terrorist attacks here last week and must be punished.
“We have in our demarche asked the arrest and handover of those persons who are settled in Pakistan and who are fugitive of Indian law,” Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee told reporters in New Delhi on Tuesday, according to Reuters. A list of about 20 names was handed over to the Pakistani envoy, he said.
More at The New York Times and:
Mumbai Terror Attacks Heighten Tensions Between India, Pakistan - VOA
India Pressures Pakistan to Act on Attacks - Los Angeles Times
Pakistan Pressed on India Attacks - Christian Science Monitor
Mumbai Attacks - Five Terrorists 'Missing' - The Times
More Indian Officials Quit in Aftermath of Attacks - Washington Post
For Heroes of Mumbai, Terror Was a Call to Action - New York Times
Jews Tortured Before Being Executed - Daily Telegraph
Mumbai Gunman Was 'Terrorist for Cash' - The Times
Pakistan's Task - Washington Post editorial
Fallout From Terror in Mumbai - Los Angeles Times editorial
THAILAND
Thailand Slips Further into Chaos as Court Dissolves Government - Anne Barrowclough, The Times
Thailand's government has been disbanded and the Prime Minister barred from politics for five years in a court ruling that has prompted fears of a slide into civil war.
The Constitutional Court was widely expected to find the government guilty of electoral fraud and order its dissolution, but its ruling has renewed fears of violence and caused some to question whether the country has a functioning government anymore.
Hours before the court hearing a grenade was fired from a flyover near the domestic airport hours, killing one anti-government protester and wounding 22 people.
More at The Times and:
Thai Court Disbands Ruling Party - New York Times
Thailand's Governing Party Dissolved; Premier Sanctioned - Los Angeles Times
Court Dissolves Thai Government for Election Fraud - Associated Press
Thai Airport Protests to End - Daily Telegraph
Political Crisis Harms Thailand's Economy - Washington Post
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Bomber Kills 7 in Violent Afghan Province - New York Times
Afghan, Coalition Troops Curtail Terrorists, Destroy Drugs, Weapons - AFPS
Suicide Bomber Strikes in Pakistan - Voice of America
Iraq
Explosions Rock Baghdad and Mosul - Voice of America
Bomb Attacks Kill at Least 27, Wound Dozens in Iraq - Washington Post
Two Bombings Kill at Least 30 Iraqis - New York Times
Blasts Kill at Least 15 Cadets at Baghdad Police Academy - Los Angeles Times
Kurds Defend Policies in Sharp Rebuke to Iraqi Government - NY Times
Turkish Warplanes Bombing Kurdish Separatists - Reuters
Agreement Sparks Optimism Among Iraqis, Colonel Says - AFPS
Colonel Notes Absence of Tensions as Iraqi Elections Near - AFPS
Iraqi, Coalition Forces Capture Prison Break Suspects, Others - AFPS
Iraqi Women Slowly Return to Cars - Washington Post
United States
Obama Names Key Members of Foreign Policy, National Security Team - VOA
Africa
Counting the Bodies in the Aftermath of Clashes in Nigeria - NY Times
Riots as Zimbabwe Turns Off Water Supply - The Times
Americas
Tijuana Drug Violence Unabated - Los Angeles Times
Canadian Parties Form Alliance That Could Replace Government - NY Times
Russia's Caribbean Farce - Washington Post opinion
Asia Pacific
N. Korea Sharply Limits South's Access to Joint Industrial Site - Washington Post
Europe
Yushchenko Looks to Moscow as NATO Cools - The Times
Don't Rush Georgia and Ukraine into NATO - Washington Times opinion
Germany Aims to Guide the West’s Ties to Russia - New York Times
Arrest of Parliament Member Brews British Tempest - New York Times
Middle East
PLO Ready for State in West Bank - Washington Times
US Forces Help Lebanese Military Assert Control - AFPS
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
8 December - Counterinsurgency Leadership Seminar (Seminar). Quantico, VA. On 8 December 2008 the US Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare (CIW) will host a Counterinsurgency Leadership Seminar at Little Hall (Base Theater), Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia, featuring Colonel Stephen Davis (USMC), Colonel David Maxwell (USA) and Lieutenant Colonel Paul Yingling. This seminar is cosponsored by CIW, US Joint Forces Command Irregular Warfare Center (IWC), the US Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center (COIN Center) and Small Wars Journal (SWJ). Seminar Panel Members: Colonel Stephen Davis, USMC. Col Davis is currently the Deputy Commanding Officer of Marine Corps Special Operations Command. Previously, Col Davis commanded Regimental Combat Team 2 in Iraq. Colonel David Maxwell, USA. COL Maxwell is currently the G-3 (Operations Officer) of the US Army Special Operations Command. Previously he commanded the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines. Lieutenant Colonel Paul Yingling, USA. LTC Yingling is the Commander of 1st Battalion, 21st Field Artillery and is currently deployed to Iraq performing detainee operations. He has served two previous tours in Iraq, and has also deployed to Bosnia and Operation Desert Storm. Colonel Daniel Kelly, USMC, will moderate. Col Kelly is the Director of the US Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare. He has held a wide variety of command and staff billets and participated in numerous operations to include Operations Restore Hope / Continue Hope (Somalia), Operations Allied Force / Joint Guardian, (Kosovo) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF I and II).
13 January - The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948: A Discourse to Shape America’s Discourse (Symposium). Washington, D.C. – at the Reserve Officer’s Association at the intersection of First Street and Constitution Avenue, NE. The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948 was passed as the U.S. was beginning a "war of ideology... a war unto death," as America's Ambassador to Russia described it at the time. But, beginning in the 1970's, instead of promoting international engagement through information, cultural and educational exchanges, the law was distorted into a barrier of engagement. From its propaganda and counter-propaganda intentions, it transformed into an anti-propaganda law for reasons that had little to nothing to do with concerns over domestic influence and far removed from the original intent of the law. Keynotes will be given by Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy James K. Glassman and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Support to Public Diplomacy Michael Doran. There will be four 90 minute panels – past, present, future, and Congress – that will emphasize Q&A, discourse, and debate and not presentations or monologues. Registration is free, open to the public, and required to attend. The event will be on the record with a transcript available after the event. A public report based on the proceedings will be produced. Registration and other information can be found at http://mountainrunner.us/symposium.
26-28 February - Student Conference on National Affairs (SCONA) (Conference). Texas A&M University - Memorial Student Center Complex, College Station, TX. Sponsored by Texas A&M University. The Student Conference on National Affairs at Texas A&M is in its 54th year. This years conference topic is US Interventions in Problematic Area's Around the World. It will take place from February 26th to the 28th. While the conference activities are focused toward Graduate and Undergraduate students, the speakers we have are open to the general public. Two of the at least five speakers we have confirmed are, Joe Galloway, Author of We Were Soldiers Once and Young, and James Olson, former Director of Counter Intelligence for the CIA. The other speakers will be the best individuals we can find in military, humanitarian, and business issues. We are currently interested in any individuals with a background in Humanitarian issues to speak, or individuals with professional knowledge on the topic to facilitate our student delegate roundtables. More information can be found at scona.tamu.edu and interested parties can contact scona.information@yahoo.com.
