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--Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post
AFGHANISTAN
Militants and Military Brace for a Winter of War in Afghanistan - Laura King, Los Angeles Times
In recent years, the first snow falling on the jagged mountain peaks of Afghanistan has ushered in a seasonal slowdown in fighting between insurgents and the Western forces that overthrew the Taliban in 2001. This winter looks to be different. Snow and icy terrain aside, both sides have made it clear that they plan to keep fighting, each contending that the harsh conditions favor them more than their enemy.
"We'll be pursuing them, and pursuing them aggressively, whatever the conditions, and they know this," said Canadian Brig. Gen. Richard Blanchette, chief spokesman for NATO's International Security Assistance Force, a vow amplified by the top US commander in Afghanistan, Army Gen. David D. McKiernan, in a speech in Washington on Tuesday.
The militants say they are more than ready. In restive Kandahar province, a mid-level Taliban field commander noted that winter weather had little effect on their weapons of choice: suicide attackers and roadside bombs, also known as improvised explosive devices.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
ONE WAR, TWO FRONTS
New York Times: It is not a stretch to say that Barack Obama faces stiffer, more vexing challenges on more fronts than any president in recent memory. In the coming weeks, the Opinion section will publish a series of Op-Ed articles by experts on the most formidable issues facing the new president. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are the subject of today’s articles.
The Little Battles We Must Win - Linda Robinson
Out of Conflict, a Partnership - Frederick Kagan
A Wartime Presidency, On Two Fronts - Anthony Cordesman
One Surge Does Not Fit All - Donald Rumsfeld
How to Leave Iraq, Intact - Peter Mansoor
Thanks, But You Can Go Now - Ahmad Chalabi
The 'Good War' Isn't Worth Fighting - Rory Stewart
IRAN / ISRAEL / UNITED STATES
Israel Fears US Will Dither While Iran Goes Nuclear - Uzi Mahnnaimi,, The Times
Mounting fears that the United States will do nothing to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear power will be outlined by Ehud Olmert, Israel’s prime minister, when he meets President George W Bush in Washington tomorrow.
Israel is concerned that Bush will pass the Iranian hot potato to Barack Obama, the president-elect, while the last chance of destroying Tehran’s nuclear bomb-making programme may be passing.
A Pentagon source told The Sunday Times earlier this year that Bush had given Israel an “amber light” to carry on with military preparations to attack Iranian nuclear sites.
More at The Times and Daily Telegraph.
PAKISTAN
Ringed by Foes, Pakistanis Fear the US, Too - Jane Perlez, New York Times
A redrawn map of South Asia has been making the rounds among Pakistani elites. It shows their country truncated, reduced to an elongated sliver of land with the big bulk of India to the east, and an enlarged Afghanistan to the west.
That the map was first circulated as a theoretical exercise in some American neoconservative circles matters little here. It has fueled a belief among Pakistanis, including members of the armed forces, that what the United States really wants is the breakup of Pakistan, the only Muslim country with nuclear arms.
More at The New York Times.
IRAQ
Iraq Needs Security Pact for Order, Officials Say - Campbell Robertson and Katherine Zoepf, New York Times
Raising the specters of a reborn insurgency, foreign attack and even piracy if a security agreement with the United States is not finalized, Iraq’s top security officials at a news conference on Saturday urged Parliament to ratify the accord, which took nine months to negotiate.
The United States has said its troops will have to pull back to bases unless the agreement, which would govern the presence of American forces, is ratified by the end of this year.
At the news conference on Saturday, Abdul Qadir al-Obaidi, the minister of defense, and Jawad Kadem al-Bolani, the minister of the interior, made grim forecasts of a near future without American support and batted down conspiracy theories about the agreement, which would cover the forces through the end of 2011.
More at The New York Times and:
Maliki Warns of Dire Consequences if SOFA Not Approved - Washington Post
Iraq Leader Defends US Troop Deal - BBC News
Iraqi Lawmakers Ready to Vote on US Security Deal - Voice of America
Iraqi Lawmakers Vote on US Security Pact Wednesday - Associated Press
Kurds in N. Iraq Receive Arms From Bulgaria - Ernesto Londoño, Washington Post
Kurdish officials this fall took delivery of three planeloads of small arms and ammunition imported from Bulgaria, three US military officials said, an acquisition that occurred outside the weapons procurement procedures of Iraq's central government.
The large quantity of weapons and the timing of the shipment alarmed US officials, who have grown concerned about the prospect of an armed confrontation between Iraqi Kurds and the government at a time when the Kurds are attempting to expand their control over parts of northern Iraq.
More at The Washington Post.
SOMALIA PIRACY
Somali Pirates to Fight for Oil Tanker Ransom - Agence France Presse (The Australian)
Somali pirates holding a huge oil-laden Saudi tanker have vowed to fight back should any assault be attempted to free the ship and urged its owners to pay a $US25 million ($41 million) ransom.
As world powers rushed naval forces to Somalia's dangerous waters amid growing concerns of major disruptions to international trade, the pirates consolidated their land base with more men and weapons.
Speaking to AFP from the pirate lair of Harardhere, a member of the group holding the Sirius Star said there was no plan to destroy the super-tanker or harm its crew but warned any military bid to free it would be "disastrous".
"I hope the owner of the tanker is wise enough and won't allow any military option because that would be disastrous for everybody. We are here to defend the tanker if attacked," Abdiyare Moalim said.
More at The Australian and The Times.
Islamic Fighters Enter Somalia Pirate Town and Plan to Attack - Colin Freeman, Daily Telegraph
The piracy crisis in the Indian Ocean took a dramatic new twist as gunmen from Somalia's hardline Islamist movement entered the fray in hope of spoils from the hijacked Saudi oil tanker, the Sirius Star.
The fighters from the Shabaab militia, a fundamentalist movement likened to an African Taliban, were reported to have turned up in the port of Haradheere in southern Somalia, close to where the tanker is currently anchored.
Some reports said the Islamists, who have tried to impose brutal law and order on Somalia's warring clans, had the pirates themselves in their sights.
Others in Haradheere, however, said it was thought that they had arrived in the hope of collecting a share of any ransom money.
More at The Daily Telegraph and:
Somali Islamists 'Hunt Pirates' - BBC News
Lawless Land Where Everyone Wants to be a Somalian Pirate - Daily Telegraph
India 'to Step Up Piracy Battle' - BBC News
Greek Tanker and Crew Freed by Pirates - Associated Press
What to Do When Thar Be Pirates - Washington Post opinion
UNITED STATES / UNITED KINGDOM ARMED FORCES
Soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan to Get Life Saving Anti-sniper Device - Richard Alleyne, Daily Telegraph
British and American forces fighting the guerilla insurgence in Iraq and Afghanistan could soon be protected by an anti-sniper device that can pinpoint the position of the shooter within a fraction of a second.
The palm-sized device designed by Qinetiq, the British defence firm that was once the government research laboratories, is pinned to the uniform and uses acoustic technology to calculate the exact position of the rifle fire. Then a electronic voice passes on the "bearing and range" to the soldier allowing him to jump to safety and return fire.
The machine has already been purchased by the Americans for deployment in the New Year and the British are looking at a vehicle mounted version. After roadside bombs, snipers have been the biggest cause of the 301 British fatalities in both wars, and army chiefs are convinced the device could save dozens of lives.
More at The Daily Telegraph.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
NATO: Taliban Commander Killed in Afghanistan - Associated Press
Fugitive British Militant Killed in Strike in Pakistan - Voice of America
British Terror Suspect 'Killed in US Missile Strike' - Daily Telegraph
Airstrike Kills Qaeda-Linked Militant in Pakistan - New York Times
US Strike Kills Suspected Mastermind of British Airline Plot - Washington Post
Suspect Believed Killed in Missile Strike - Associated Press
Karzai: Obama Promises to Fight Terror in 'Region' - Associated Press
Pakistani Tribesmen Become War Refugees - Washington Times
Afghanistan Top of List for Fitzgibbon - The Australian
Gurkhas Tell of Rescue Under Taliban Fire - The Times
Retired General Looks Back on Russia's War in Afghanistan - LA Times Q&A
George Bush's Final Target is Osama Bin Laden - The Times editorial
Working with Other Nations' Militaries - Washington Post opinion
Pakistan
Leader Says Pakistan Won't Strike First With Nukes - Associated Press
The Pakistan Test - New York Times opinion
Iraq / OIF
Obama Accused of Selling Out on Iraq - Daily Telegraph
In Ramadi, Real Rebuilding, With Fresh Paint - New York Times
Iran
Iran Hangs Convicted Spy for Israel - Washington Post
Iran Executes Man in Spy Case - New York Times
The Long War
Terror Case Could be Awkward for Obama - Associated Press
Al Qaeda's Silly Slur Against Obama - Los Angeles Times editorial
Clear and Present Danger - Weekly Standard opinion
Obama's Delusion - Washington Times opinion
Islam
Worldwide Hate Speech Laws? - Weekly Standard opinion
United States
Some in Arab World Wary of Clinton - Washington Post
Arab World Reacts Cautiously to US New Ambassador to Libya - VOA
Bush Gets Free-trade Pledge at Summit - Associated Press
President-elect Sends Strong Signals From Sidelines - Los Angeles Times
Australia
Somalis in Australia Quizzed Over Pirate Links - The Australian
Muslim Religious Leaders in Australia Blamed for Not Protecting Women - VOA
Africa
Congo Rebel Leader Slams Extra UN Deployment - Agence France-Presse
DR Congo Rebel Rallies Support - BBC News
Elders Abandon Zimbabwe Visit - Voice of America
Carter Group Barred From Zimbabwe - New York Times
Annan Cancels Zimbabwe Visit - Daily Telegraph
Zimbabwe Bars Carter, Ex-U.N. Chief - Associated Press
Carter, Annan Meet Zimbabwe's Tsvangirai - Agence France-Presse
Cholera Outbreak Strikes Zimbabwe - BBC News
Mugabe Tries to Hide Cholera Death Toll - The Times
Zimbabwe Army Guns Down 12 Diamond Hunters - Daily Telegraph
Americas
Venezuela Set for 'Critical' Vote - BBC News
Venezuelan Vote Seen as Key Test for Chavez - Associated Press
Venezuela: Chavez 'Acting Like Dictator' - Daily Telegraph
Chavez's Fraud Game - Washington Times opinion
Drug Violence Leaves 30 Dead in Mexico - Agence France-Presse
Don't Cry for Free, Argentina - Washington Times opinion
Asia Pacific
China's Secrecy 'Could Affect Region' - The Australian
China Dismisses UN Report on Torture - The Australian
Cyberspace Gumshoes are Afoot in China - Los Angeles Times
Blast in Bangkok Injures 8 Thai Anti-Government Protesters - Voice of America
Thai Protesters Begin "Final Battle" Against Govt - Reuters
Malaysian Islamic Body Bans Yoga for Muslims - Associated Press
Europe
Ex-monitor Faults Georgia for August War - Washington Times
Bush Reflects on Russian Relations - Washington Post
Russia's Bare-knuckle Policy on Oil - Washington Times opinion
Leadership Fight Frays Socialist Party in France - Washington Post
Middle East
Abbas Calls on Obama to Implement Arab Peace Plan - Associated Press
South Asia
Tibetans Vote for No More Talks with China - Voice of America
Exiled Tibetans Meet in India - Washington Post
Tibetans Reaffirm a Conciliatory Path - New York Times
Tibet Exiles Decide Against Seeking Independence - Los Angeles Times
Dalai Lama: Tibet Faces Great Danger - Agence France-Presse
Sri Lanka Government Accuses Amnesty - BBC News
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
8 December - Counterinsurgency Leadership Seminar (Seminar). Quantico, VA. On 8 December 2008 the US Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare (CIW) will host a Counterinsurgency Leadership Seminar at Little Hall (Base Theater), Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia, featuring Colonel Stephen Davis (USMC), Colonel David Maxwell (USA) and Lieutenant Colonel Paul Yingling. This seminar is cosponsored by CIW, US Joint Forces Command Irregular Warfare Center (IWC), the US Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center (COIN Center) and Small Wars Journal (SWJ). Seminar Panel Members: Colonel Stephen Davis, USMC. Col Davis is currently the Deputy Commanding Officer of Marine Corps Special Operations Command. Previously, Col Davis commanded Regimental Combat Team 2 in Iraq. Colonel David Maxwell, USA. COL Maxwell is currently the G-3 (Operations Officer) of the US Army Special Operations Command. Previously he commanded the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines. Lieutenant Colonel Paul Yingling, USA. LTC Yingling is the Commander of 1st Battalion, 21st Field Artillery and is currently deployed to Iraq performing detainee operations. He has served two previous tours in Iraq, and has also deployed to Bosnia and Operation Desert Storm. Colonel Daniel Kelly, USMC, will moderate. Col Kelly is the Director of the US Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare. He has held a wide variety of command and staff billets and participated in numerous operations to include Operations Restore Hope / Continue Hope (Somalia), Operations Allied Force / Joint Guardian, (Kosovo) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF I and II).
13 January - The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948: Past, Present, and Future (Symposium). Washington, D.C. Mark your calendar for January 13, 2009. That is the confirmed date for “The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948: Past, Present, and Future”, a symposium to discuss the legislation on which America’s arsenal of persuasion is anchored. The one-day event will be hosted in Washington, D.C., with the location and co-sponsor all but confirmed. The format is four 90 minute panels and will emphasize Q&A, discourse, and debate and not presentations or monologues. The four panels will focus on past, present, future, what to do, respectively. Panelists will be drawn from practitioners (State and Defense Departments), academics, Congress, and the media. The event is free and open to the public but registration will be required (see below). This is a first of its kind in-depth discussion into the legislation that continues to set the parameters of our global engagement. Enacted at the beginning of the First War of Ideas, it is long past time to discuss it ten or more years into the Second War of Ideas, a struggle that goes beyond terrorism and insurgency and into economic and financial power.
26-28 February - Student Conference on National Affairs (SCONA) (Conference). Texas A&M University - Memorial Student Center Complex, College Station, TX. Sponsored by Texas A&M University. The Student Conference on National Affairs at Texas A&M is in its 54th year. This years conference topic is US Interventions in Problematic Area's Around the World. It will take place from February 26th to the 28th. While the conference activities are focused toward Graduate and Undergraduate students, the speakers we have are open to the general public. Two of the at least five speakers we have confirmed are, Joe Galloway, Author of We Were Soldiers Once and Young, and James Olson, former Director of Counter Intelligence for the CIA. The other speakers will be the best individuals we can find in military, humanitarian, and business issues. We are currently interested in any individuals with a background in Humanitarian issues to speak, or individuals with professional knowledge on the topic to facilitate our student delegate roundtables. More information can be found at scona.tamu.edu and interested parties can contact scona.information@yahoo.com.