--Robert Haddick, Small Wars Journal
NATIONAL SECURITY
Experts See Security Risks in Downturn - Joby Warrick, Washington Post
Intelligence officials are warning that the deepening global financial crisis could weaken fragile governments in the world's most dangerous areas and undermine the ability of the United States and its allies to respond to a new wave of security threats.
US government officials and private analysts say the economic turmoil has heightened the short-term risk of a terrorist attack, as radical groups probe for weakening border protections and new gaps in defenses. A protracted financial crisis could threaten the survival of friendly regimes from Pakistan to the Middle East while forcing Western nations to cut spending on defense, intelligence and foreign aid, the sources said.
The crisis could also accelerate the shift to a more Asia-centric globe, as rising powers such as China gain more leverage over international financial institutions and greater influence in world capitals.
More at The Washington Post.
THE LONG WAR
Turkey Derides US for War on Terror - Barbara Slavin, Washington Times
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that "the situation in Iraq is not positive at all," contrary to US claims of progress after five years of conflict.
Mr. Erdogan, in Washington to attend the Group of 20 financial summit, said Afghanistan was "another disastrous event" and that the Bush administration had spent more than $500 billion in Iraq and Afghanistan without stabilizing either country.
Bipartisan in his criticism, the Turkish leader also chided President-elect Barack Obama for openly promising to withdraw US troops from Iraq within 16 months. It would have been better for Mr. Obama to have kept his timetable secret, Mr. Erdogan said.
Turkey opposed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and its parliament failed to approve the transit of US forces from bases in Turkey into Iraq at the time. Since then, however, Turkey has become a major supplier for US forces. It fears a US withdrawal could lead to even more instability in Iraq and a possible partition of the country that would aggravate Turkey's problems with a large Kurdish minority.
More at The Washington Times.
IRAQ
Iraq Prime Minister Backs Security Pact - Ned Parker and Saif Hameed, Los Angeles Times
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has agreed to support a contentious security agreement with the United States and plans to urge his Cabinet to back the recently revised pact, two senior Shiite Muslim officials said Friday.
The move would be a huge step toward ratifying the deal, which sets out conditions for US military conduct in Iraq as well as a timeline for troops' withdrawal from the country by the end of 2011. It has encountered strong opposition from several Iraqi political parties and factions.
Maliki had declined to openly back the new security agreement. Close advisors said the prime minister changed his position after US officials accepted two key conditions: the removal of any language from the text that might allow U.S. troops to remain in Iraqi cities past June 2009, and specifying that US military personnel must request permission from the Iraqi government to search homes.
Maliki has reluctantly accepted that he could not expect any guarantee that a US soldier suspected of wrongdoing during a mission would be tried in an Iraqi court, said confidant Sami Askari, a prominent Shiite lawmaker.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
Cleric Calls for Resistance to US Presence in Iraq - Campbell Robertson and Suad Al-Slahy, New York Times
As the Iraqi cabinet prepares to vote on a security agreement for American troops, the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr called Friday for armed resistance against any agreement that allowed a continued United States presence in Iraq.
“I repeat my demand to the occupier to leave our land without keeping bases or signing agreements,” Mr. Sadr said in a statement read to thousands of supporters at Friday Prayer. “If they keep bases, then I would support honorable resistance.”
Tension is rising here over the agreement as the vote nears, even if few oppose it to the extremes of Mr. Sadr and his followers. An aide to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most revered Shiite cleric in Iraq, also indicated that he would intervene in some way if the draft did not enjoy the full support of the Iraqi people. But Ayatollah Sistani, who far outranks Mr. Sadr, has consistently advocated nonviolence.
Iraqi officials expect the coalition cabinet of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki to vote Sunday on whether to send the current draft to Parliament for approval. It is unclear whether it will pass through either body, though some officials are optimistic. “Most of the blocs agree, and there is no bloc that entirely refuses the pact except for the Sadrists,” said Sami al-Askari, a Shiite lawmaker and member of Mr. Maliki’s Dawa Party.
More at the New York Times and Washington Post.
DR CONGO
Over 250,000 Displaced as Sexual Violence Erupts in DRC - Rob Crilly, The Times
More than a quarter of a million people have been displaced during the past three months of fighting as the Democratic Republic of Congo’s messy, forgotten war flares once again.
Rebels loyal to the renegade army general Laurent Nkunda have closed to within a few miles of Goma, the regional capital. Their front line is now only about 600 yards from the closest government positions. Few analysts believe Nkunda’s claims that his National Congress for the Defence of People can take the city, much less hold it.
With each tiny shift of the front line, however, and with each claim and counterclaim of a military breakthrough, thousands more people are forced from their homes and into the humanitarian statistics. Families are being torn apart as sons and daughters run for their lives in different directions. And, as in so many miserable African wars, it is the women who are suffering most.
More at The Times.
GAZA STRIP
As Israel-Hamas Clashes Continue, Gazans Face Crisis - Linda Gradstein, Washington Post
A five-month-old cease-fire between Israel and the armed Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip has been strained by 10 days of violence, and residents are warning of a humanitarian crisis because Israel has sealed the territory's borders.
Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters have clashed repeatedly since early this month, leaving at least 10 Hamas gunmen dead. The United Nations said Friday that it had closed its food-distribution program because it cannot resupply its warehouses and that 750,000 Palestinians who depend on UN aid will have to wait until Israel lets more food enter the strip.
Gaza's main power plant also ran out of fuel because of the closure, and UN and other aid officials warned of mounting problems.
More at the Washington Post, New York Times, Voice of America, Los Angeles Times and The Times.
PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANIES
Dogs of War: US Has Paid $6 Billion to 310 Private Security Companies in Iraq - David Isenberg, United Press International
It is always difficult to write about private security contractors in Iraq because of the paucity of hard data. But we can now say that there are far more of them than we thought and that we are paying more for their services than previously known.
According to a recent government audit, first reported in The New York Times (NYSE:NYT), at least 310 PSCs from around the world have received contracts from US agencies to protect American and Iraqi officials, installations, convoys and other entities in Iraq since 2003, at a cost of about $6 billion.
The report, titled "Agencies Need Improved Financial Data Reporting for Private Security Contractors," was released in September by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction.
More at United Press International.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
US-Led Forces in Afghanistan Kill 4 Suspected Militants Linked to Al-Qaida - VOA
Coalition Kills Four in Afghanistan Bomb Network - AFPS
Acid Attack Shows Nature of Taliban, Pentagon Spokesman Says - AFPS
Pakistani Officials Say 12 Killed in US Missile Strike - Voice of America
Suspected US Strike Kills 11 in NW Pakistan - Washington Post
32 Pakistanis Dead in Aerial Attacks - Associated Press
2 Journalists in Pakistan Are Wounded by Gunmen - New York Times
Iraq / OIF
Iraq Moves on SOFA - United Press International
British to Pull Out by 2010, Says Iraqi Official - The Times
Muslim Scholars Hail Deaths of US Troops - United Press International
Kurdish Tensions Boon for al-Qaeda? - United Press International
Troops Detain 11 Suspected Terrorists in Iraq - AFPS
Iran
Talks Yield No New Sanctions Against Iran's Nuclear Program - Los Angeles Times
US Department of Defense
Dunwoody Becomes First Woman Four-Star General - AFPS
Army Promotes Its First Female Four-Star General - Washington Post
G-20 Summit
World Leaders Meet in Washington on Financial Crisis - Voice of America
United States
Obama Reportedly Considering Former Rival for Secretary of State - VOA
Africa
Zimbabwe Opposition Rejects Mugabe's Unity Government - Voice of America
Americas
Russia Builds Ties in United States' Backyard - Los Angeles Times
Colombia: Ground Crews a Bigger Part of Cocaine Battle - Los Angeles Times
Mexico Crash Inquiry Points to Pilot Error in Turbulence - New York Times
Asia Pacific
Outside View: North Korea, Don't Panic - United Press International
Europe
Russia Backs Off on Europe Missile Threat - New York Times
EU, Russia Resume Security Talks - Voice of America
US Calls Proposed Deployment of Russian Missiles in Belarus Unhelpful - VOA
Sarkozy Calls for Rethink Over US Defence System - The Times
South Asia
India, US Discuss Practicalities of Implementing Civil Nuclear Pact - VOA
Army Reports Gain in Sri Lanka - Reuters
Tibet: Dalai Lama Seeks Fresh Answers - The Times
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
8 December - Counterinsurgency Leadership Seminar (Seminar). Quantico, VA. On 8 December 2008 the US Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare (CIW) will host a Counterinsurgency Leadership Seminar at Little Hall (Base Theater), Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia, featuring Colonel Stephen Davis (USMC), Colonel David Maxwell (USA) and Lieutenant Colonel Paul Yingling. This seminar is cosponsored by CIW, US Joint Forces Command Irregular Warfare Center (IWC), the US Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center (COIN Center) and Small Wars Journal (SWJ). Seminar Panel Members: Colonel Stephen Davis, USMC. Col Davis is currently the Deputy Commanding Officer of Marine Corps Special Operations Command. Previously, Col Davis commanded Regimental Combat Team 2 in Iraq. Colonel David Maxwell, USA. COL Maxwell is currently the G-3 (Operations Officer) of the US Army Special Operations Command. Previously he commanded the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines. Lieutenant Colonel Paul Yingling, USA. LTC Yingling is the Commander of 1st Battalion, 21st Field Artillery and is currently deployed to Iraq performing detainee operations. He has served two previous tours in Iraq, and has also deployed to Bosnia and Operation Desert Storm. Colonel Daniel Kelly, USMC, will moderate. Col Kelly is the Director of the US Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare. He has held a wide variety of command and staff billets and participated in numerous operations to include Operations Restore Hope / Continue Hope (Somalia), Operations Allied Force / Joint Guardian, (Kosovo) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF I and II).
13 January - The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948: Past, Present, and Future (Symposium). Washington, D.C. Mark your calendar for January 13, 2009. That is the confirmed date for “The Smith-Mundt Act of 1948: Past, Present, and Future”, a symposium to discuss the legislation on which America’s arsenal of persuasion is anchored. The one-day event will be hosted in Washington, D.C., with the location and co-sponsor all but confirmed. The format is four 90 minute panels and will emphasize Q&A, discourse, and debate and not presentations or monologues. The four panels will focus on past, present, future, what to do, respectively. Panelists will be drawn from practitioners (State and Defense Departments), academics, Congress, and the media. The event is free and open to the public but registration will be required (see below). This is a first of its kind in-depth discussion into the legislation that continues to set the parameters of our global engagement. Enacted at the beginning of the First War of Ideas, it is long past time to discuss it ten or more years into the Second War of Ideas, a struggle that goes beyond terrorism and insurgency and into economic and financial power.
26-28 February - Student Conference on National Affairs (SCONA) (Conference). Texas A&M University - Memorial Student Center Complex, College Station, TX. Sponsored by Texas A&M University. The Student Conference on National Affairs at Texas A&M is in its 54th year. This years conference topic is US Interventions in Problematic Area's Around the World. It will take place from February 26th to the 28th. While the conference activities are focused toward Graduate and Undergraduate students, the speakers we have are open to the general public. Two of the at least five speakers we have confirmed are, Joe Galloway, Author of We Were Soldiers Once and Young, and James Olson, former Director of Counter Intelligence for the CIA. The other speakers will be the best individuals we can find in military, humanitarian, and business issues. We are currently interested in any individuals with a background in Humanitarian issues to speak, or individuals with professional knowledge on the topic to facilitate our student delegate roundtables. More information can be found at scona.tamu.edu and interested parties can contact scona.information@yahoo.com.
