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--Robert Killebrew - Africom Stands Up
AFGHANISTAN
US Urgently Reviews Policy On Afghanistan - Karen DeYoung, Washington Post
The White House has launched an urgent review of Afghanistan policy, fast-tracked for completion in the next several weeks, amid growing concern that the administration lacks a comprehensive strategy for the foundering war there and as intelligence officials warn of a rapidly worsening situation on the ground.
Underlying the deliberations is a nearly completed National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan and the Pakistan-based extremists fighting there. Analysts have concluded that reconstituted elements of al-Qaeda and the resurgent Taliban are collaborating with an expanding network of militant groups, making the counterinsurgency war infinitely more complicated.
As the US presidential election approaches, senior officials have expressed worry that the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is so tenuous that it may fall apart while a new set of US policymakers settles in. Others believe a more comprehensive, airtight road map for the way ahead would limit the new president's options.
Lt. Gen. Douglas E. Lute, President Bush's senior adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan, has told Pentagon, intelligence and State Department officials to return to the basic questions: What are our objectives in Afghanistan? What can we hope to achieve? What are our resources? What is our allies' role? What do we know about the enemy? How likely is it that weak Afghan and Pakistani governments will rise to the occasion?
More at The Washington Post.
US Study Is Said to Warn of Crisis in Afghanistan - Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, New York Times
A draft report by American intelligence agencies concludes that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral” and casts serious doubt on the ability of the Afghan government to stem the rise in the Taliban’s influence there, according to American officials familiar with the document.
The classified report finds that the breakdown in central authority in Afghanistan has been accelerated by rampant corruption within the government of President Hamid Karzai and by an increase in violence by militants who have launched increasingly sophisticated attacks from havens in Pakistan.
The report, a nearly completed version of a National Intelligence Estimate, is set to be finished after the November elections and will be the most comprehensive American assessment in years on the situation in Afghanistan. Its conclusions represent a harsh verdict on decision-making in the Bush administration, which in the months after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks made Afghanistan the central focus of a global campaign against terrorism.
Beyond the cross-border attacks launched by militants in neighboring Pakistan, the intelligence report asserts that many of Afghanistan’s most vexing problems are of the country’s own making, the officials said.
More at The New York Times.
Gates Seeks European Troops for Afghanistan - Peter Finn, Washington Post
US Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Wednesday asked defense ministers from southeastern Europe to send more troops to Afghanistan, a message that he is likely to forcefully echo at a meeting with other NATO defense officials this week.
"As the situation on the ground in Iraq continues to improve, I urge you to consider sending your military forces to Afghanistan, where there is an urgent need for trainers as they expand their army," Gates said at a meeting of the South-Eastern Europe Defense Ministerial, a 12-member organization composed of NATO members and countries such as Macedonia that want to join the military alliance.
More at the Washington Post and New York Times.
No Afghan-Taliban Peace Talks, For Now - Anand Gopal, Christian Science Monitor
The Taliban are not engaged in peace talks with the Afghan government, despite recent reports to the contrary, say sources close to the insurgents and the government.
Instead, meetings held last month in Saudi Arabia - which brought former Taliban officials together with members of the Afghan and Saudi governments - may be an attempt by Kabul to start negotiations with the current Taliban.
"The meetings signal that the Afghan government is weak and is desperate for a solution," says Waheed Muzhda, a political analyst in Kabul and former official in the Taliban government.
They've come at a time when the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan is reaching unprecedented heights, causing some analysts to doubt that the militants will be interested in making peace.
Moreover, the former Taliban members who participated in the Mecca meetings may not have much sway in persuading current militants to come to the table. "These people don't represent the Taliban," Mr. Muzhda says. "Most of the people have almost no standing with the current Taliban leadership."
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
RUSSIA / GEORGIA
Russians Vacate Buffer Zones in Georgia - Olesya Vartanyan and Ellen Barry, New York Times
Russia removed its last checkpoints from the buffer zones outside the breakaway enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on Wednesday, fulfilling a central requirement of a French-brokered cease-fire agreement two days before an Oct. 10 deadline. No violence was reported on either side. But it was clear, from watching Georgian forces dig into their new positions in Ergneti, that the tensions were undiminished.
A mutual stare-down at close range was “how the war started,” said Shota Utiashvili, a senior official in Georgia’s Interior Ministry.
“That situation is quite dangerous, to be frank,” Mr. Utiashvili said. “It might quickly evolve into something dangerous.”
The Georgian authorities still want Russian forces to withdraw from Akhalgori, a district in South Ossetia, and from the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia - areas administered by Georgia before the August war. They are also calling for ethnic Georgian refugees to be allowed to return to their homes in the disputed territories, and for European monitors to patrol inside the enclaves, not just in Georgian territory, Mr. Utiashvili said.
The war began Aug. 7, when Georgia attacked Russian-backed separatists in South Ossetia. Russia responded by sending troops deep into Georgian territory, setting off the worst diplomatic confrontation between Russia and the United States since the cold war.
More at the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Voice of America and Associated Press.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
NATO to Meet as Afghan War Effort Founders - Associated Press
NATO Mulls Expanding Drug Role in Afghanistan - Associated Press
Anti-drug Efforts Yield Success in Afghanistan - Bloomberg
Gates Urges SE European Nations to Send Troops to Afghanistan - AFPS
Official Reaffirms Commitment to Preventing Civilian Casualties - AFPS
Military Justifies Attack That Killed at Least 33 Civilians - New York Times
US Military Acknowledges Higher Civilian Toll - Los Angeles Times
Provincial Reconstruction Team Aids Peace, Stability - AFPS
Pakistan
Pakistan Parliament in Rare Security Briefing - The Times
Pakistan's Spy Chief Briefs Lawmakers on Terrorism - Associated Press
Blast in Pakistan's Capital Wounds Nine - Associated Press
Iraq
Turkey Authorizes Extension of Military Strikes in Iraq - New York Times
Use of 'Sticky IEDs' Rising in Iraq - Washington Post
Iraqi Woman Carries Out Suicide Blast in Diyala - New York Times
Suicide Bomber Kills 10 In Iraq's Diyala Province - Washington Post
US-Iraq Security Pact Faces Hurdles - Associated Press
As Violence Drops, Iraqi Tribes Begin to Make Amends - CS Monitor
Training Increases Confidence for Iraqi Police Officers - AFPS
Iraqis Set to Reclaim Palace - The Australian
Nearing the End - New York Times editorial
Iran
Iran Halts New Sales Tax After Merchants Strike - Washington Post
The Long War
Judge Orders Release of Chinese Muslims - Washington Post
17 Detainees - Washington Post editorial
Homeland Security
Phoenix: Criminals Targeted in US "Kidnap Capital" - Reuters
US Department of Defense
United Nations
Dual Roles Said to Put UN Staffers at Risk - Washington Times
UN Blames 10 for Security Lapse in Algiers Bombing - Associated Press
World
America as Superpower: Shaken, Not Deposed - Christian Science Monitor
Africa
Sudan Makes Case Abroad While Still Bombing Darfur - CS Monitor
Somali Pirates Said to Be Near Arms Cargo Deal - New York Times
Rift Unsettles South Africa’s Top Party - New York Times
Mbeki Allies Threaten Crisis-hit ANC with Split - The Times
South Africa Ruling Party Threatened With Split - Los Angeles Times
ANC Rebels 'Serve Divorce Papers' - Daily Telegraph
Battle for Hearts and Minds of ANC Supporters - The Times opinion
Zimbabwean Parties Still Arguing Over Cabinet Posts - Voice of America
Repression of Pro-Democracy Demonstrations Raises Tension in Mauritania - VOA
Into AFRICOM - Real Clear Politics opinion
Americas
Cuba Bolsters Food Rations to Counter Shortages - Reuters
End the US-Cuba Embargo: It's a Win-Win - CS Monitor opinion
Asia Pacific
N. Korea’s Nuclear Activities Destabilize Region, US Commander Says - AFPS
US in Deliberate Study of North Korean Nuclear Position - Voice of America
Thai Leader Tries to Calm Fears - The Australian
Thai Protest Leaders to Surrender - New York Times
Thai Protesters Seek Action - Daily Telegraph
Thailand in Turmoil - Wall Street Journal opinion
Malaysian PM to Resign - Daily Telegraph
Europe
Russia Plans to Boost Military Spending - United Press International
UN General Assembly to Ask ICJ for Ruling on Kosovo Independence - VOA
Serbia Wins Bid to Review Independence of Kosovo - New York Times
Gates Reaffirms US Commitment to Ukrainian NATO Membership - AFPS
Ukraine: Feuding Leaders Destroy Orange Coalition - The Times
Georgia: The War on Coherence - The Guardian opinion
Dmitry's Diatribe - Wall Street Journal opinion
Middle East
Two Americans Missing En Route From Lebanon to Syria - Washington Post
Torture Rampant in Jordan's Prisons, Report Says - Los Angeles Times
What's Afoot in Syria? - Washington Times opinion
South Asia
Bush Signs India Nuclear Trade Bill - Voice of America
Building Stronger US-India Friendship - Wall Street Journal opinion
Maldives Holds Its First Democratic Presidential Election - Voice of America
First Free Election on Maldives - The Times
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
The War Within - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 U.S. troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq?
EVENTS OF INTEREST
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.