QUOTE OF THE DAY

US policy-makers, planners, and programmers in the upcoming administration therefore would be well advised to review short-, mid-, and long-range requirements across the board, bearing in mind that the most dangerous enemy capabilities imaginable do not necessarily constitute dangerous threats, for reasons the attachment explores.

--John Collins - Small Wars Journal

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

'US Strike' Kills Taleban Leader - BBC News

A suspected US missile strike has killed 20 people, including a top Taleban commander, in north-west Pakistan, witnesses and officials say.

Mohammad Omar was among the dead when the missile, reportedly fired by a pilotless US drone, hit a compound owned by him in South Waziristan.

Omar fought with the Taleban in Afghanistan in the late 1990s.

The US has launched many missile strikes from Afghanistan against suspected militant targets recently.

More at BBC News, American Forces Press Service, Voice of America and Agence France-Presse.

US Takes to Air to Hit Militants Inside Pakistan - Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, New York Times

The White House has backed away from using American commandos for further ground raids into Pakistan after furious complaints from its government, relying instead on an intensifying campaign of airstrikes by the Central Intelligence Agency against militants in the Pakistani mountains.

According to American and Pakistani officials, attacks by remotely piloted Predator aircraft have increased sharply in frequency and scope in the past three months.

Through Sunday, there were at least 18 Predator strikes since the beginning of August, some deep inside Pakistan’s tribal areas, compared with 5 strikes during the first seven months of 2008.

At the same time, however, officials said that relying on airstrikes alone, the United States would be unable to weaken Al Qaeda’s grip in the tribal areas permanently.

More at The New York Times.

Afghan, Pakistan Leaders to Meet in Islamabad to Discuss Insurgency - Steve Herman, Voice of America

About 50 Afghan political and tribal leaders have gone to Pakistan for a meeting with their Pakistani counterparts to discuss the insurgency on both sides of the border.

Politicians, respected elders and Muslim clerics from Afghanistan and Pakistan will hold talks - dubbed as a mini-jirga -- in Islamabad from Monday to see if they can agree on joint action to end the rising violence by al-Qaida and Taliban militants.

The jirga system has been used for more than one thousand years by the region's Pashtun tribal leaders to decide important matters.

The two-day meeting in Pakistan is seen as a follow-up to a grand jirga last year in Kabul, when Afghans and Pakistanis pledged not to let their respective countries become training centers and sanctuaries for terrorism.

The reality is that militants, fighting both governments, continue to operate in the two countries.

More at Voice of America.

IRAQ / SYRIA / US

US Airstrike Allegedly Kills 8 Inside Syria - Ernesto Londoño, Washington Post

Four US helicopters flew into Syrian airspace Sunday afternoon and opened fire, killing eight people near the border with Iraq, the Syrian government said.

The reported operation in al-Boukamal, roughly six miles from the border with Iraq, occurred about 4:45 p.m., the Syrian Arab News Agency reported, citing an unnamed government source.

US attacks inside Syria are extremely rare, though the US military has stepped up security along Iraq's border with Syria in recent months to stem the traffic of fighters and weapons into Iraq. US officials say many insurgents, particularly suicide bombers, arrive in Iraq via the Syrian border.

More at the Washington Post, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Voice of America, BBC News and The Times.

A Warning Syria's President Assad Must Heed - James Hider, The Times analysis

The US airborne raid into Syrian territory marks the culmination of years of frustration with Damascus’s reluctance to police its own border with Iraq, the main point of entry for foreign jihadists.

Since the 2003 invasion, Syria, fearing that it could be the next target for regime change, has allowed Islamic militants to cross its desert borders freely. Significantly, the village of al-Sukkari farm, which US forces raided, is just over the border from the Iraqi city of al-Qaim, which, since 2003, has been a key funnelling point for jihadists entering Iraq on the so-called rat run to the Sunni cities of Ramadi, Fallujah and, finally, Baghdad.

But a raid into sovereign territory would have needed high-level US clearance and may have been intended as a warning to Syria at a time when America and Israel are trying to turn the regime of President Assad away from Iran and into peace talks.

More at The Times.

IRAN

Iran President's 'Exhaustion' Stirs Speculation Over Next Election - Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times

Reports about the health of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have stirred speculation about whether the controversial populist will run again for the country's highest elected office next June.

In an interview published late Saturday by Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency, a close associate of Ahmadinejad said the president had fallen sick because of overwork and exhaustion.

"Every human being can face exhaustion under such a workload," lawmaker Mohammed Ismail Kowsari, an ally of Ahmadinejad, said. "The president will eventually get well and continue his job."

More at the Los Angeles Times, New York Times, Associated Press and BBC News.

NEWS & OPINION NOTES

Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Area

Pakistan Takes Town as 'Corner Turned' - The Australian
Pakistani and Afghan Elders to Meet to Ponder Violence - Reuters
Briton Killed by Afghan Security Guard - The Times
Afghanistan on the Edge of Abyss - China Post opinion pt 1
Afghanistan on the Edge With No Solution - China Post opinion pt 2

Pakistan

Losing Friends in Pakistan - Washington Post opinion

Iraq

Warzone Where Oil Prospects Outweigh Risks - The Times
Report Finds Water Treatment Project Late, Faulty - New York Times
$100-million Iraq Sewer Project a Failure - Los Angeles Times
Woes in Iraq Sewage Project - Associated Press

Iran

Iran Cabinet Minister Facing Impeachment - Washington Post

The Long War

We Should Talk to Our Enemies - Newsweek opinion
America's Valuable Terrorism List - Los Angeles Times opinion
The Age of Triumphalism is Over - Los Angeles Times opinion

US Foreign Policy

The World That Awaits - Newsweek opinion

US Department of Defense

Odd Anthrax Cells Led FBI to Army Scientist - Washington Post
Army Defense Task Force Targeting Hackers - United Press International

US Presidential Election

Nominees Have Similar Views on Use of US Force - Washington Post

World

Economic Crisis Threatens to Destabilize Developing Countries - LA Times
OPEC’s Woes - New York Times editorial

Africa

Fighting Escalates in Congo - Los Angeles Times
Congolese Rebels Seize Military Base, National Park - Voice of America
DR Congo Rebels Seize Army Camp - BBC News
Somalia Makes Peace Deal With a Militia - New York Times
Somalis Agree to Observe Truce - BBC News
Can NATO Stop the Somali Pirates? - Time
Zimbabwe Poised to Resume Talks - BBC News
Leaders Try to Save Zimbabwe Accord - Agence France-Presse
We Must Food-bomb Hungry Zimbabwe - The Times opinion

Americas

FBI Warns of Drug Cartel Arming - Washington Times
Police Capture Key Drug Suspect - Los Angeles Times
Mexican Drug Lord Is Arrested - Reuters
Ex-Militant Concedes Loss in Election for Rio Mayor - New York Times
Hostage of Colombian Rebels Escapes - Reuters

Asia Pacific

China's Land Reform Aims to Revolutionize 750 Million Lives - CS Monitor
Dalai Lama Says He Has Lost Hope in China Talks - Voice of America
Fiji Talks on Return to Democracy - Agence France-Presse
Phony Realism on Burma - Washington Post opinion

Europe

Bush Endorses NATO Membership for Albania, Croatia - AFPS
In Georgia, War Tanks Turn to Culture - Washington Times
Russia: Beware Rushing Bear - The Australian opinion

Middle East

Livni Abandons Effort to Form Israeli Coalition - Washington Post
As Israeli Elections Are Called, Livni Is Assessed - New York Times
Israel to Hold New Elections as Livni Talks Fail - The Times
Israel Heads for Early Elections - Voice of America
Israel's Livni Takes a Risk with Early Elections - Christian Science Monitor
Road to Damascus - The Times editorial

South Asia

Police, Protesters Clash in Indian-Kashmir - Voice of America
India to Send Food Aid to Sri Lanka - BBC News

BOOKS

Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips

Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.

Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor

This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.

The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West

From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.

Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson

After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.

The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward

Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.

We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway

In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.

In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy

The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.

Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz

Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.

6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.