--Vikram Singh and Nathaniel Fick - Small Wars Journal
--Matthew Valkovic and Brian Burton - Small Wars Journal
--Tom Barnett - The Latest From Gates
COMPLEX OPERATIONS
Balance and Modesty in America's Military Posture - Judah Grunstein, World Politics Review blog
Matthew E. Valkovic and Brian M. Burton pen a Small Wars Journal op-ed that pushes back a bit against Andrew Bacevich's recent Atlantic piece on the Army's internal "COIN vs. Conventional" doctrinal debates. You have to gather some momentum in order to influence an institution as massive and resistant to change as the US Army, especially in the immediate aftermath of the violently imposed transformation of the Rumsfeld era. Add the immediacy, very eloquently expressed by Abu Muqawama, of watching your fellow soldiers die and I think the conviction of the COIN "crusaders," as Bacevich characterizes them, becomes very understandable.
Now that the COIN approach has won its bona fides in Iraq, a consensus -- and it strikes me as a reasonable one -- is emerging, expressed by Bob Gates in the speech I flagged yesterday, and echoed by Valkovic and Burton. According to that consensus, we need COIN because that's what we're doing at the moment, and it's very likely we'll be called on to do it in the future. That doesn't mean we'll abandon our conventional capacity, which is why Gates, Valkovic and Burton, emphasize balance. But it makes no sense to lose the war you're fighting in order to win one you might fight in the future.
More at World Politics Review.
Re Not Fighting the Current War - Jules Crittenden, Forward Movement blog
Never mind the last one. Boston University Prof. Andrew Bacevich says he’s worried about the next one, but his big problem is with the current one. Bacevich decries the US Army’s new counterinsurgency focus, suggesting that it reduces conventional capabilities, and that Bush War-driven practical needs are pre-empting a traditional chain-of-command policy process. Like much of what he has written lately, while it may in fact touch on some serious concerns, it veers quickly into the ridiculous...
It’s not so much that we are faced with two significant counterinsurgencies … and the prospect that others will demand our attention … and that we are compelled to fight them. It’s that training our forces to do so will perpetuate a Bush doctrine of imperial domination...
At Small Wars Journal, Bacevich is very deftly answered on the merits of his argument, or lack thereof, by a lieutenant and a think-tank policy wonk...
More at Forward Movement.
Reconstruction and Stabilization Corps to be Enacted - Matt Armstrong, MountainRunner blog
Military operations may neutralize immediate kinetic threats and strategic communications may make promises, but enduring change comes from systemic overhauls that stabilize unstable regions. Security, humanitarian relief, governance, economic stabilization, and development are critical for stability and denial of sanctuary for violent extremism, terrorism, and insurgency. These are the real propaganda of deeds but without competent and comprehensive action in these areas, military and diplomatic actions are simply a waste of time, money, and life.
Bullets and bombs represent short-term tactical responses to a much larger strategic dilemma. Any text worth reading on insurgency or counterinsurgency recognizes and emphasizes the operational and strategic center of gravity is the people. Failing to address grinding poverty and disillusionment in regions creates fertile breeding grounds for extremists, terrorists, and insurgents to attack the national interests of the United States.
More at MountainRunner.
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN
Confronting Taliban, Pakistan Finds Itself at War - Jane Perlez and Pir Zubair Shar, New York Times
War has come to Pakistan, not just as terrorist bombings, but as full-scale battles, leaving Pakistanis angry and dismayed as the dead, wounded and displaced turn up right on their doorstep.
An estimated 250,000 people have now fled the helicopters, jets, artillery and mortar fire of the Pakistani Army, and the assaults, intimidation and rough justice of the Taliban who have dug into Pakistan’s tribal areas.
About 20,000 people are so desperate that they have flooded over the border from the Bajaur tribal area to seek safety in Afghanistan.
Many others are crowding around this northwest Pakistani city, where staff members from the United Nations refugee agency are present at nearly a dozen camps.
More at The New York Times.
From Losing to Winning in Afghanistan - Michael O'Hanlon and Andrew Shearer, Washington Times opinion
Not only in the US presidential race, not only at US Central Command headquarters where Gen. David Petraeus is soon to take command, but in capital cities around the world, attention is now turning to Afghanistan. Incredibly, while the war in Iraq is now being won, the conflict in Afghanistan is presently being gradually lost.
To be sure, violence levels in Afghanistan remain well below what they were in Iraq in the throes of that country's civil war, before the US-Iraqi surge and Sunni awakening and other developments turned things around so radically in 2007-2008 and brought the rate of violence down by at least 80 percent. But Afghanistan's situation is continually worsening by almost any measure, with no clear end in sight to the deterioration.
Monthly violence rates are up a factor of two to three from earlier years this decade. Poppy production continues to dominate what little there is of an Afghan economy. The Afghan army is improving, but woefully small, and the police forces are corrupt and largely ineffective. The Karzai government has little control or even influence in much of the countryside. Perhaps worst of all, insurgent and terrorist groups led by the Taliban and the Haqqani network operate with near impunity from across the border in Pakistan.
As Gen. Petraeus sets his sights now on the broader Central Command region, and US presidential candidates together with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates assert the need for more international forces in Afghanistan, it is becoming safe to assume that the international presence in Afghanistan will further strengthen over the coming months, perhaps from its current total of some 62,000 troops to 75,000 or more. There is talk, not surprisingly, of a "surge" for Afghanistan, and hope that we can soon accomplish there what has begun to take root in Iraq.
But we must avoid viewing the situation entirely in this light.
More at The Washington Times.
IRAQ
Uncertain Future for Sons of Iraq - Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor
Fresh concern is washing over Iraq of a new wave of insurgent violence as the bands of mainly Sunni Muslim Iraqis trained, armed, and paid by the US military to fight Al Qaeda in Iraq are now coming under the control of a skeptical Shiite-led government.
While the group called the Sons of Iraq (SOI) has been critically important in improving security, the US military and many leaders within the SOI worry that their foot soldiers – many of them ex-insurgents - will simply return to their old ways if they are not paid or brought into Iraq's official security forces.
"If the government doesn't accept them, most will join [insurgent] groups, and they will restart their activities stronger than before," says Khalid Jamal, an SOI leader in Baghdad. "That will make Iraq return to zero."
Keeping the insurgency and sectarian killing at bay is crucial in Iraq's fragile security, where the SOI (known also as the Awakening, or Sahwa in Arabic) are but one reason for the sharp fall in violence. Official figures point to 440 Iraqis killed in September, down from peaks of more than 3,000 a month in 2006.
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
US to Fund Pro-American Publicity in Iraqi Media - Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus, Washington Post
The Defense Department will pay private US contractors in Iraq up to $300 million over the next three years to produce news stories, entertainment programs and public service advertisements for the Iraqi media in an effort to "engage and inspire" the local population to support US objectives and the Iraqi government.
The new contracts -- awarded last week to four companies -- will expand and consolidate what the US military calls "information/psychological operations" in Iraq far into the future, even as violence appears to be abating and US troops have begun drawing down.
The military's role in the war of ideas has been fundamentally transformed in recent years, the result of both the Pentagon's outsized resources and a counterinsurgency doctrine in which information control is considered key to success. Uniformed communications specialists and contractors are now an integral part of US military operations from Eastern Europe to Afghanistan and beyond.
Iraq, where hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on such contracts, has been the proving ground for the transformation. "The tools they're using, the means, the robustness of this activity has just skyrocketed since 2003. In the past, a lot of this stuff was just some guy's dreams," said a senior US military official, one of several who discussed the sensitive defense program on the condition of anonymity.
More at The Washington Post.
As Bombs Fall Silent, an Iraqi City Rebuilds - Erica Goode and Muhammed Hussein, New York Times
Bombs go off infrequently now in Samarra, and they are mostly small, nothing like the massive explosion that two years ago toppled the golden dome of the famous Askariya Shrine in this ancient city, setting off a wave of sectarian bloodletting across Iraq.
Yet in Samarra, as in many parts of this ravaged country, better is a relative term. The city’s name is derived from an Arabic phrase meaning “a joy for all to see.” But joy, or even basic satisfaction, remains a scarce commodity.
The violence that once raged throughout the overwhelmingly Sunni city has quieted in the last few months. In August there were only nine small weapons attacks, compared with 44 last November, according to the American military. One homemade bomb exploded in August. Last November there were 13. The curfew for residents has been pushed back to midnight or even later if there are religious events.
More at The New York Times.
Baghdad Suicide Bombers Kill 2 Dozen in Attacks on Mosques - Stephen Farrell, New York Times
Suicide bombers killed about two dozen people on Thursday in attacks on two Shiite mosques in east Baghdad during a holiday to mark the end of the holy month of Ramadan. The attacks were the second wave this week during a lengthy public holiday for observances of Id al-Fitr, which is celebrated at different times by different Sunni and Shiite congregations.
The two attacks happened around 8 a.m. as followers of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s most senior Shiite cleric, were attending prayers for the first day of the feast. In one area, the relatively poor and overwhelmingly Shiite neighborhood of Zafaraniya, Iraqi soldiers said a car bomber rammed his Russian-made Volga taxi into an armored Iraqi Army Humvee, which was guarding the entrance to a Shiite mosque. Interior Ministry officials said 14 people were killed.
In the other area, the much more middle-class district of New Baghdad, a bomber wearing a suicide vest tried to slip past the security cordon around the Rasoul mosque, according to the head of security, who gave his name as Abu Mustafa. The congregation had overflowed from the ornate 50-year-old prayer hall, he said, and many people were praying in the street.
More at the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Voice of America and Associated Press.
AFRICA
Into Africa - Wall Street Journal editorial
The Department of Defense this week "stood up" a military command dedicated to Africa. It's perhaps not a moment too soon, as the current standoff in the waters off Somalia over a hijacked Ukrainian ship carrying Russian arms suggests.
AFRICOM joins the five other geographic commands of the US military and is an acknowledgment of the growing strategic importance of the continent. For now, the command will be headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany, rather than in any African country -- a decision that itself speaks volumes about the region's instability. The US already has a base in Djibouti, where a force of about 1,500 is poised to respond rapidly to crises in the Horn of Africa.
The new command will work with African nations to achieve -- as its explanatory material puts it -- "a more stable environment in which political and economic growth can take place." Toward that nonmilitary end, and unlike other commands, the four-star Army general at the top of AFRICOM has a civilian deputy from the State Department. AFRICOM will also provide military training to African countries and support the African Union's standby force.
But its most important mission is helping discourage and defeat terrorism on the continent.
More at The Wall Street Journal.
The Pirate Problem - Max Boot, Contentions blog
There is something fascinating as well as slightly absurd and anachronistic about the current standoff between the US Navy and the pirates who seized a Ukrainian freighter full of tanks off the coast of Somalia. In many respects, this seems like a throwback to an earlier age-to the 17th and 18th centuries when pirate confederations routinely preyed on shipping in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, and other seas. The pirates were eventually stamped out primarily by the Royal Navy with an assist from other civilized nations. The United States Navy played its part by inflicting defeats on the Barbary Pirates in the wars of 1801-1805 and 1815 and then suppressing the real-life “Pirates of the Caribbean” in the 1820s. With the passage of time, we romanticize the pirates but there was nothing noble or gallant about their activities-they were essentially murderous street gangs of the seas.
Piracy never disappeared completely, of course, and it has made an unfortunate rebound in recent years in the poorly policed waters off East Africa and Southeast Asia. Not surprisingly, just as the world once looked for salvation to the Royal Navy, so now it looks to the US Navy. Guaranteeing freedom of the seas is one of the less-noticed but more important benefits of the Pax Americana.
To continue playing that role, however, the Navy will have to grow in size. Its current fleet of fewer than 300 ships makes it difficult to engage in lower-priority missions such as fighting pirates. But building more ships will not be possible unless we can get the costs under control.
More at Contentions.
AMERICAS
Spread of Gangs Tied to Border-control - Jerry Seper, Washington Times
A "dangerous side effect" of America's failure to control the Southwest border and the nation's tolerance for high levels of illegal immigration has resulted in the spread of violent transnational gangs across the United States, including Maryland, Virginia and Washington, a report says.
A report written for the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) says the gangs represent a "significant menace to the public," with about 80 percent of the members involved in serious crimes in addition to immigration violations and another 40 percent having committed violent crimes.
"The recent emergence and spread of several Hispanic street gangs, most notably MS-13 and 18th Street, has attracted the attention of law enforcement agencies and political leaders nationwide," said Jessica M. Vaughan, an author of the report, which was made public Tuesday. "Many gangs are made up of small-time troublemakers, but others have a reputation for grisly violence.
More at The Washington Times.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Suicide Bomber Kills 5 In Northern Pakistan - Washington Post
Saudi Arabia Can Rein in Taliban - Daily Telegraph opinion
A Realistic Strategy for Afghanistan? - Kings of War blog
Iraq
Odierno Says Iraq is Recovering - United Press International
Rivalries May Negate Gains in Iraq - United Press International
Al-Qaida Numbers Down in Iraq - United Press International
Shiite Cleric Condemns Terrorism in Iraq - United Press International
Kurds Deny Criticism of Sunnis - United Press International
UN Backs Minorities in Iraqi Elections - United Press International
Iraq Press Roundup - United Press International
Historians at War - Washington Times opinion
Iraqi Leaders Closely Watching US Elections - Iraq the Model blog
Iran
Iran: US Tells 'Huge Lies' About Tehran's Nuclear Program - Voice of America
Iran Demands Nuclear Fuel - Daily Telegraph
Iran's Nuclear Waltz - Wall Street Journal editorial
Obama or McCain, Iran Stance Won't Change - The Australian opinion
Robert Gates Gives Advice on Iran - Westhawk blog
Islam
Scholars Urge Rethinking of Islamic Ideals - United Press International
Public Diplomacy
Public Diplomacy and the War of Ideas - Abu Aardvark blog
US Department of Defense
US to Fund Pro-American Publicity in Iraqi Media - Washington Post
The Latest from Gates - Thomas P.M. Barnett blog
The Blogging Admiral - Information Dissemination blog
US Department of State
US Plans to Move Embassy in London to Enhance Security - Washington Post
United Nations
UN Says Millions of People in Arbitrary, Unlawful Detention - Voice of America
UN Offers To Keep Rwandan General In Darfur - Washington Post
Africa
Ward Discusses US Africa Command’s Goals - AFPS
Report Urges Global Action to Curb Piracy in Somalia - Voice of America
UN Plan Urges Renewed Fight Against Somali Pirates - Associated Press
Euro Taskforce Declares War on Somali Pirates - The Times
Somali Pirates Say They Will Fight Commando Raid - Associated Press
Unified Ethiopian Opposition Seeks Troop Withdrawal From Somalia - VOA
Sudan: Indict al Bashir - Miami Herald editorial
Americas
France Willing to Help Venezuela Go Nuclear - Toronto Star
Police Next Target as Mexico Gets Tough on Violence - The Australian
Mexican President Proposes Decriminalizing Some Drugs - New York Times
Number of Illegal Immigrants to US Is Down, Report Finds - Washington Post
Fewer People Entering US Illegally, Report Says - New York Times
The Russians are Coming! - Military Watch blog
Asia Pacific
US Envoy Wraps Up N.Korea Talks - Associated Press
The Caucasus
After War, Russia's Influence Expands in Caucasus - Christian Science Monitor
Europe
Opposition Party to Ally With Kremlin - Washington Post
Moscow Says US Leadership Era Is Ending - New York Times
Putin Warns Ukraine Over Arms - BBC News
Putin Claims Ukraine Aid in Georgia - Associated Press
Russia Gets Smart on Ukraine - Information Dissemination blog
Serbia Signs Security Agreement with NATO - United Press International
Ukraine's Tymoshenko Supports Georgia Deal - United Press International
EU Defense Ministers Agree to Phase Out Peacekeeping Mission in Bosnia - VOA
War Crimes Trial Set to Reveal Bosnia Secrets - The Times
Suspected Islamist Militants Tried in France Over Bomb Plot - Reuters
Germany's RAF Terror Revisited - United Press International
Chief of Scotland Yard To End Turbulent Term - Washington Post
Europe's Far-right Revival isn't Nazism - Los Angeles Times opinion
Middle East
Opposition Party in Egypt Faces Dissent from Within - Los Angeles Times
'Hundreds Join' Settler Violence - BBC News
South Asia
Rice Heads to India Following Nuclear Accord Vote - Voice of America
India Nuclear Deal: Big Step on Long Road - Christian Science Monitor
India in From the Cold - Daily Telegraph editorial
Blasts Hit Indian Festival Crowds - The Australian
Indians Question Police Response to Recent Bombings - New York Times
Army Bombs Headquarters of Rebels in Sri Lanka - New York Times
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
The War Within - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 U.S. troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq?
EVENTS OF INTEREST
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
