--Nancy Soderberg and Brian Katulis - Washington Post
US FOREIGN POLICY
Bush's Crucial Handoffs - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion
The best thing about presidential elections is that they mark a break with the past. But that can also create a dangerous chasm - a period of uncertainty while the new administration hires its people and frames its policies. Meanwhile, the world's problems fester.
It's like passing a baton, this process of transition, and it's easy for things to go wrong. Remember the ignominy of the US men's and women's track teams in Beijing when they botched the handoffs in the 4×100-meter relays.
The Bush administration (remember them?) has an opportunity to build some bridges in foreign policy that could help the next administration, whoever is elected. Its goal shouldn't be to bind its successors but to preserve options - and to prevent deterioration of America's position during the interregnum.
More at The Washington Post.
US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
The Case for Keeping Gates - Nancy Soderberg and Brian Katulis, Washington Post opinion
Here's a free piece of advice to President Barack Obama or President John McCain: There's no need to look for a new secretary of defense. You already have the best man in the job.
The Obama campaign in particular seems to have noticed the virtues of Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates. It's a little head-spinning to see senior Democrats lauding a Bush cabinet officer in the heat of the campaign, but earlier this month, Richard Danzig, the former Navy secretary who has become one of Obama's closest national security aides, said that many of Gates's pragmatic policies at the Pentagon "are things that Senator Obama agrees with and I agree with." Danzig added that Gates could do "even better" if he stayed on the job in an Obama administration.
The case for Gates goes beyond the obvious question of assisting the next president in handling Iraq, which Gates has helped haul back from the brink of total collapse. But he has also been instrumental in launching a sweeping revolution in US national security.
More at The Washington Post.
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS
Afghan President, Pressured, Reshuffles Cabinet - John Burns, New York Times
Under pressure from the United States and its coalition partners to shake up his government and curb high-level corruption, President Hamid Karzai named as his interior minister on Saturday a former official of Afghanistan’s Communist-era secret police.
The appointment of Muhammad Hanif Atmar, 40, was part of a cabinet reshuffle that a spokesman for Mr. Karzai described as aimed at bringing “positive changes in good governance.” Along with the Interior Ministry, the changes included new ministers in four other portfolios in the 26-member cabinet, including the important ministries of agriculture and education.
By moving Mr. Atmar to the Interior Ministry from his previous post as education minister, Mr. Karzai responded to insistent demands for a crackdown on corruption that have come from the Western nations that sustain his government with troops and billions of dollars in aid. The pattern of corruption, senior diplomats in Kabul say, is so pervasive that it has contributed, with deteriorating security conditions, to a collapse in the popular backing for the Karzai government.
More at The New York Times.
Afghan President Offers Taliban a Role in Governing Country - Nick Meo, Daily Telegraph
President Hamid Karzai has offered Taliban leaders the possibility of positions in his government if they agree to a peace deal which could bring fighting to an end.
The offer was made through his brother Qayoun at a secret meeting in Saudi Arabia of which Britain was aware.
Britain has been encouraging the Kabul government to talk to its Taliban enemies for more than two years and the Americans are thought to be coming round to the idea of a deal which would end the costly war in Afghanistan.
But The Sunday Telegraph has learned that the allies would insist that the Taliban would have to split with al-Qaeda and provide information on international terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan as the price of a deal.
Under the Saudi Arabian initiative more than a dozen former senior Taliban figures travelled to the kingdom with the approval of President Hamid Karzai's government.
More at The Daily Telegraph.
Big Fish Among the Afghan Warlords - Sara Carter, Washington Times
Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum watched an emperor angelfish swim back and forth in a large tank, competing with other brightly colored fish for a few flakes of feed drifting in the saltwater.
"Do you like my fish?" the general asked. "If I introduce new fish to the tank, the others attack it, kill it and sometimes bite out their eyes."
It is a simple matter of "territory and survival," the burly Uzbek explained, his bellowing laughter bouncing off the marble floors of the foyer in his heavily guarded estate in Kabul.
Seven years after the overthrow of the Taliban, the Bush administration is struggling to come up with a new strategy to salvage Afghanistan. In that effort, Gen. Dostum and the nation's 14 other warlords are a mixed blessing. Often corrupt and clinging to 14th-century notions of justice, they are an integral part of Afghanistan's past and present and are likely to remain so in the future.
More at The Washington Times.
Taliban Leader Killed by SAS was Pakistan Officer - Christina Lamb, The Times
British officials covered up evidence that a Taliban commander killed by special forces in Helmand last year was in fact a Pakistani military officer, according to highly placed Afghan officials.
The commander, targeted in a compound in the Sangin valley, was one of six killed in the past year by SAS and SBS forces. When the British soldiers entered the compound they discovered a Pakistani military ID on the body.
It was the first physical evidence of covert Pakistani military operations against British forces in Afghanistan even though Islamabad insists it is a close ally in the war against terror.
Britain’s refusal to make the incident public led to a row with the Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who has long accused London of viewing Afghanistan through the eyes of Pakistani military intelligence, which is widely believed to have been helping the Taliban.
More at The Times.
The NIE on Afghanistan - Max Boot, Contentions blog
Once upon a time, official Washington might have been shocked to pick up the New York Times and read on its front page a description of “a nearly completed version” of a National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan. But such leaks are now de rigueur. The NIE-the capstone product of the Intelligence Community-has become about as secret as the average think-tank report, which it increasingly resembles. Many think tanks have a partisan slant, and so does the intelligence community, which seems to be campaigning against the current administration.
The leaked description of the new NIE, which suggests that the situation in Afghanistan is rapidly deteriorating, strikes me as essentially accurate-certainly more accurate than the infamous NIE which claimed that Iran had stopped its nuclear-weapons program. But its leak ahead of the election provides fodder-as was probably intended by the leakers (”more than a half dozen current government officials who had read its conclusions”)-for those who echo Barack Obama’s charge that Bush and McCain have focused too much attention on Iraq at the expense of Afghanistan, supposedly the “central front” in the war on terrorism.
More at Contentions.
NORTH KOREA
North Korea Is Off Terror List After a Deal With the US - Helene Cooper, New York Times
The Bush administration announced Saturday that it had removed North Korea from a list of state sponsors of terrorism in a bid to salvage a fragile nuclear deal that seemed on the verge of collapse.
Sean McCormack, the State Department spokesman, said that the United States made the decision after North Korea agreed to resume disabling a plutonium plant and to allow some inspections to verify that it had halted its nuclear program as promised months earlier.
The deal, which the Bush administration had portrayed as a major foreign policy achievement, began slipping away in recent weeks in a dispute over the verification program. Just days ago, North Korea barred international inspectors from the plant.
The decision to remove North Korea from the terror list was a dramatic moment for President Bush, who had called the country part of an “axis of evil” and had only reluctantly ordered administration officials to engage in negotiations, saying that the United States had made deals with the nation’s leaders before without winning enough concessions.
More at the New York Times, Washington Post, Washington Times, Los Angeles Times, BBC News and The Australian.
ZIMBABWE
Robert Mugabe Grabs Key Zimbabwe Cabinet Posts - Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has defied a fragile power-sharing deal with the opposition, giving all key Cabinet posts, including the crucial security ministries, to his own party.
The power grab took Zimbabwe by surprise Saturday, less than a month after the deal was signed. Opposition spokesman Nelson Chamisa, whose Movement for Democratic Change has said ruling party control of the police would be a deal-breaker, called it "a giant act of madness which puts the whole deal into jeopardy."
Only the Finance Ministry, and the difficult task of cleaning up Zimbabwe's economic chaos, remained undecided, according to the pro-Mugabe Herald newspaper, which published the details Saturday.
The move meant that the 84-year-old Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party would retain their iron grip on the country after 28 years in power. It follows reports that top security chiefs told Mugabe in a recent meeting not to give control of the army, intelligence or police to the opposition.
More at the Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, New York Times, Washington Times, The Times, Daily Telegraph and BBC News.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Bush Troop Surge to Stem Rise of Taliban - The Times
Afghan Aid Being 'Wasted' - Daily Telegraph
More Than 100 Taliban Said to Be Killed in Afghan Clashes - Associated Press
US Airstrike Said to Kill 5 in Pakistan - Reuters
Have the Taliban Really Rejected al Qaeda? - Captain's Journal blog
Negotiating (or not) with the Taliban (whoever they are) - Abu Muqawama blog
NATO Cannot Be Rehabilitated - Captain's Journal blog
How Screwed Are We in Afghanistan? Discuss... - Danger Room blog
Scrambling for an Answer in Afghanistan - Westhawk blog
To the Managers Go the Spoils… - Kings of War blog
US Targets Safe House in North Waziristan - Long War Journal blog
Pakistan
We Can't Handle the Truth - Washington Post opinion
Iraq
Deadly Bomb Attack at Iraq Market - BBC News
Baghdad Resident Is Haunted by Friends' Betrayal - Washington Post
Pigeon Breeders Now Face Fewer Challenges - Los Angeles Times
FA: Politics First - Abu Aardvark blog
The Forgotten War - Forward Movement blog
Iran
Israeli Preparations Point to Confrontation - The Australian
Warning Signs of Israeli Strike on Iran - The Times opinion
Mystery "Death Ship" Released by Pirates - Information Dissemination blog
The Long War
President in Transition Must be on Alert for Terrorism - United Press International
The Rule of Law in Guantánamo - New York Times editorial
The Shadow of Gitmo - Los Angeles Times editorial
The USS Cole 8 Years Ago - Information Dissemination blog
Pentagon Researcher Unveils Warcraft Terror Plot - GroupIntel blog
The Role of Technology and the GWOT - ThreatsWatch blog
The War of Ideas
Islamophobia Acquittal - Forward Movement blog
Islam
State of Grace in Islamic Finance - Thomas P.M. Barnnett blog
US Department of Defense
Insider’s Projects Drained Missile-Defense Millions - New York Times
NATO
NATO-West and NATO-East? - Westhawk blog
Africa
Fear Amid Hostility In South Africa - Washington Post
Jacob Zuma of South Africa Still a Mystery - Los Angeles Times
New Rebels Attack DR Congo Town - BBC News
Pirates Seize Tanker Off African Coast - Associated Press
Somali Pirates Attack Two Ships - Daily Telegraph
Russia to U.S.: Let's Team up, to Fight Pirates - Danger Room blog
Sierra Leone's Hospitals of Last Resort - Washington Post
Americas
Peru's President Appoints New PM - BBC News
Asia Pacific
North Korean TV Shows Photos of Elusive Leader - New York Times
Delisting North Korea - Washington Post opinion
Thais Protest Against Democracy - Daily Telegraph
Indonesia Marks Bali Bombing Anniversary - Agence France-Presse
Europe
Russia 'Still Violating Georgia Ceasefire' - Daily Telegraph
EU Verifies Russia's Withdrawal - BBC News
UK: Muslims Rebuffed Over Sharia Courts - The Times
Middle East
Middle East Talks Head to Oxford - The Times
Rioting Hits Israel on Holiest Jewish Day - The Australian
South Asia
Kashmir Shuts Down in Protest as Indian PM Visits - Associated Press
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key U.S. and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
