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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Trying to figure out if you're winning [in COIN] is like trying to figure out if your grass is growing by staring at it for an hour."
--Company Commander, Iraq (H/T Cavguy)
IRAQ
Why Did Violence Plummet? It Wasn't Just the Surge. - Bob Woodward, Washington Post
Throughout the summer of 2007, as the troop surge in Iraq reached full strength, Gen. David H. Petraeus kept waiting for the tide to turn. By summer's end, the US commander in Iraq got his wish. The high of 1,550 attacks a week fell below 800 -- nearly a 50 percent reduction. It has continued to fall over the past year.
Why did the violence drop so dramatically?
On one level, the surge was beginning to have its intended effect. Doubling the US forces in and around Baghdad from 17,000 to nearly 40,000, coupled with Petraeus's counterinsurgency game plan, had helped quell some of the sectarian and other violence that had defined the previous year and a half. About 30 joint security stations had been established around Baghdad; security along the borders with Iran and Syria had improved; and the Iraqi army was performing better.
In Washington, conventional wisdom translated these events into a simple view: The surge had worked. But the full story was more complicated. At least three other factors were as important as, or even more important than, the surge. These factors either have not been reported publicly or have received less attention than the influx of troops.
More at The Washington Post.
US 'Microgrants' Win Hearts, Minds One Business at a Time - Richard Tomkins, Washington Times
From a small compound in northeast Baghdad, US troops are taking tiny steps to rebuild an economy shattered by war.
Their target is al-Beidha'a, a community of cinderblock homes, apartment buildings and potholed streets close to Sadr City, where U.S. and Iraqi forces in April and May fought pitched battles against gunmen of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and Iranian-influenced "special groups" militias.
The US is offering "microgrants" to strengthen and expand small businesses, help create jobs and invigorate the community. The effort also allows troops to expand personal interaction with Iraqis as they conduct meetings and surveys to find appropriate recipients.
"It isn't a free-money program," said Capt. Clint Rusch, who oversees the microgrant project of Charlie Company, 1st Battalion, 68th Armored Regiment, which is attached to the 1st Battalion of the 6th Infantry Regiment. "We're not giving away money. We're here helping people to get the technology and equipment they need to do better business.
More at The Washington Times.
US Begins Hunting Iraq's Bombmakers, Not Just Bombs - Tom A. Peter, Christian Science Monitor
When members of the Air Force's 447th Explosive Ordnance Disposal unit first arrived here in May, they were dealing with three to four roadside bombs a week. During prior tours, the group's veterans say at least one a day was normal.
But last month, they went their first week without encountering a single roadside bomb.
For US soldiers in Iraq, this decline is perhaps the loudest herald of a quieter Iraq. It's also representative of the US military's greater strategic shift, focusing less on individual threats like improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and broadening their scope to the larger counterinsurgency mission.
"We've made a mistake focusing on IEDs as a technological threat," says Frederick Kagan, a military expert at the American Enterprise Institute. To defeat roadside bombs in Iraq, the military had to broaden their focus beyond the devices and look at them as a piece of the entire conflict. "As we've been winning the counterinsurgency, the effectiveness of IEDs has been wearing off," he says.
IEDs, the military's name for roadside bombs, have posed the biggest threat for most of the war, accounting for the death of more than half of all US servicemen killed in combat. But since the troop surge began earlier this year, which is also when the military began to place a greater emphasis on counterinsurgency tactics, US military officials say IED attacks have dropped by 70 percent.
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
AFGHANISTAN
Evidence Points to Civilian Toll in Afghan Raid - Carlotta Gall, New York Times
To the villagers here, there is no doubt what happened in an American airstrike on Aug. 22: more than 90 civilians, the majority of them women and children, were killed.
The Afghan government, human rights and intelligence officials, independent witnesses and a United Nations investigation back up their account, pointing to dozens of freshly dug graves, lists of the dead, and cellphone videos and other images showing bodies of women and children laid out in the village mosque.
Cellphone images seen by this reporter show at least 11 dead children, some apparently with blast and concussion injuries, among some 30 to 40 bodies laid out in the village mosque. Ten days after the airstrikes, villagers dug up the last victim from the rubble, a baby just a few months old. Their shock and grief is still palpable.
For two weeks, the United States military has insisted that only 5 to 7 civilians, and 30 to 35 militants, were killed in what it says was a successful operation against the Taliban: a Special Operations ground mission backed up by American air support. But on Sunday, Gen. David D. McKiernan, the senior American commander in Afghanistan, requested that a general be sent from Central Command to review the American military investigation in light of “emerging evidence.”
More at the New York Times, Los Angeles Times and Times.
Taliban Learning How to Win Key Propaganda Battles - Paul Koring, Globe and Mail
The Taliban, once dismissed as too stupid to know they would lose if they dared to fight well-trained Canadian and allied troops, have proved themselves resilient, if still ill-equipped, warriors, learning from their early defeats and adapting to stage sophisticated attacks, inflicting serious casualties and winning key propaganda battles.
"They are showing greater political savvy, too," said a military analyst, who asked not to be further identified. "They understand they don't have to defeat us, they just have to defeat the will of the people back home."
The analyst, who is familiar with the counterinsurgency being fought in Kandahar, added: "We are in a very dangerous time, we have an election coming up and they [the Taliban] know we have a rotation going on and that we are close to the 100 [killed] number which will provoke re-examination" of the mission at home.
Last week's well-executed ambush of an armoured Canadian column is only the latest in a series of Taliban battlefield successes. The Canadian losses - three dead, five injured after a clever, daylight ambush and a fierce gun battle - were only the latest in a high-profile series of setbacks for the US-led coalition that now numbers more than 50,000 troops but has so far failed to defeat the Taliban.
More at The Globe and Mail.
PAKISTAN / AFGHANISTAN
NATO Crisis Tests New President - Bruce Loudon, The Australian
Newly elected President Asif Ali Zardari was plunged headlong into his first major crisis last night after angry Pakistani officials cut off vital supply lines serving the US-led NATO force fighting in Afghanistan.
In a major test for Mr Zardari following his spectacular weekend election win, NATO's lifeline from the port city of Karachi that brings in essential daily shipments of oil and other supplies was cut off at the Khyber Pass.
The move was in apparent retaliation for last week's first-ever ground assault inside Pakistani territory by US special forces against Islamic militants.
Having won an unprecedented 68 per cent of the votes cast, Mr Zardari has a greater level of authority than any previous civilian president in Pakistan's history and has placed the battle against al-Qa'ida and the Taliban at the top of his agenda.
More at The Australian.
UNITED NATIONS
UN Seeks to Define Crimes - Betsy Pisik, Washington Times
A daylong symposium focusing on the victims of terrorism Tuesday was supposed to be an apolitical event with an emphasis on healing, improving support services and combating a common scourge.
Instead, diplomats from many Islamic countries are outraged, with their diplomats complaining that the event was organized in secrecy and haste and that it bypassed their governments' concerns and input.
One of the sticking points for this and seemingly all other terrorism-related discussions is the inability to define the term "terrorism" or "terrorist."
Most Arab and Islamic nations insist that there be an exemption for guerrillas, whom they call "freedom fighters," and Western governments call "terrorists."
These include fighters in Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups that battle Israel, claiming that they are fighting against Israel's presence in the West Bank, southern Lebanon and Syria.
Israel, the United States and many Western governments say these groups are fighting to destroy the Jewish state and drive Jews from the Levant.
More at The Washington Times.
HEZBOLLAH / ISRAEL
Hezbollah Set for Revenge - The Australian
Imad Mugniyeh was blown up in February on a quiet street in central Damascus, three floors below the modest flat from which he had directed Hezbollah's plots and war operations over the past decade.
Seven months later, Israel is convinced vows by the Hezbollah group to avenge Mugniyeh's death are about to amount to something. Over the past fortnight, streams of reports have been coming in from around the region and elsewhere.
Two men allegedly linked to Hezbollah are believed to be in custody in Canada accused of targeting staff of Israeli airline El Al, Israeli holidaymakers have been all but ordered home by their Government from the Sinai Peninsula, Israeli citizens the world over have been warned of kidnap attempts and Israel's embassies are on their highest level of alert.
Hezbollah's reclusive Lebanon-based leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has made two pointed speeches aiming to position himself as a Lebanese military leader about to face up to the enemy.
More at The Australian.
MEXICO
The Mexican-American Drug War - Washington Times editorial
Mexican drug wars are wreaking havoc on the northern border towns of that country, and the violence is now spilling over into southern border towns in the United States. According to recent revelations from the Arizona Counter Terrorism Information Center (AcTIC) and the High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Investigative Support Center. Jerry Seper of The Washington Times reported Sept. 3 on how Mexico's crackdown on the drug cartels could impact the US "Cartel members and police officials in Mexico, in a bid to spare their families from the violence that has overwhelmed many Mexican border towns, could begin relocating them to the United States, resulting in more homicides and home invasions along the southwestern border, increased availability of high-powered weapons to Mexican drug smugglers already in the US, and the potential for the family members to continue drug operations in the US."
Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials said there has been "an unprecedented surge in violence along the 1,951-mile US-Mexico border this year, with 892 border agents assaulted between October and July in fiscal 2008 - a stark increase when compared to the 638 assaults during the first 10 months of fiscal 2006. Some agents say the Border Patrol alone will be unable to handle the violence that is likely to be coming over the border in the next few years snf that it may be necessary for the US military to play a role in tackling the problem.
More at The Washington Times.
AFRICA
Africa: From Anarchy to Normalcy - Robert Kaplan, The Atlantic
Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe was heckled and jeered by a feisty opposition as he opened parliament recently.
The decline of Mugabe, an odious dictator in a class with Kim Jong Il and the Burmese generals, will give a seal of good-product approval to a continent that, despite persistent catastrophes, finally looks to be the beneficiary of a series of positive global trends.
Even without Mugabe, governance will be dicey throughout Africa. Just a few weeks ago, a military junta overthrew Mauritania's first democratically elected president. Off the coast of Somalia, piracy -- the maritime extension of anarchy on land -- is worse than anywhere in the world, including Nigeria. The governments of Liberia, Ivory Coast, and Chad still need United Nations peacekeeping missions to monopolize the use of force. Kenya and Sierra Leone, the victims of ethnic and tribal-based rebellions, are healing but remain fragile. At the root of many of these problems are a youth bulge and high rate of young male joblessness: over 40 percent of the population in most sub-Saharan African countries is younger than 15. African countries still dominate the bottom ranks in all human-development indices. On no other continent are institutions so weak or nonexistent.
Operating against these bleak realities are equally powerful -- and hopeful -- positive forces.
More at The Atlantic.
EFFECTS BASED OPERATIONS / ETC.
Battles of Military Doctrine - Mark Safranski, ZenPundit blog
All strategic theories as they percolate through a massive bureaucracy tend to become distorted, misunderstood, inflated, stretched to cover pre-existing agendas, get advanced in tandem with career interests and be misapplied to situations for which they were never intended. EBO is no exception but “banning” concepts wholesale from discussion is less healthy for the long term intellectual good of an organization than is simply subjecting them to warranted criticism.
More at ZenPundit.
Shane Deichman, Wizards of Oz, has a different take in his post Reorienting "Effects" Focus.
General Jim Mattis, USMC, Commander of US Joint Forces Command, is continuing to demonstrate his leadership at the command who once claimed its Area of Responsibility was "the future". His latest salvo is at one of the "sacred cows" of the defense transformation movement: Effects Based Operations.
Despite much fanfare from USJFCOM J9 over the past decade, where EBO became the cornerstone of the "Rapid Decision Operations" overarching concept (and a constant source of chagrin for LtGen(ret) Paul Van Riper), earlier today General Mattis closed the door on EBO in favor of "time honored principles and terminology that our forces have tested in the crucible of battle and are well grounded in the theory and nature of war."...
This is an appropriate (albeit belated) adjustment by CDR USJFCOM to distinguish between "potentially good ideas" and "doctrine". Not just for EBO (an idea that suffered from vagueness and service parochialism since its inception) but also for "Operational Net Assessment" (ONA) and "System of Systems Analysis" (SoSA).
EBO never got over the "persistence" question (e.g., how long would "effects" endure), just as ONA never solved the "adaptability" question (i.e., how would enemy adaptations be accounted for in the model). Gen Mattis's assertion of JPs 3-0 and 5-0 is the proper thing for a Combatant Commander to do -- doctrine, not concept, drives operations.
More at Wizards of Oz.
Also see Reader Response - On Leadership and “Best Practices” of Military Command for the 21st Century.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Iraq
In Diyala, Payday at the Bank - Washington Post
Coalition Forces in Iraq Seize Bomb-Making Components - AFPS
Another Iraqi Casualty of War: Their Waistlines - Los Angeles Times
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Border Attacks May Hinder Chances of Help from Zardari - The Times
More Diggers Wanted for Afghanistan - The Australian
Taliban Blast Brings Canada's Military Toll to 97 - Globe and Mail
Coalition Forces Kill, Detain Insurgents in Afghanistan - AFPS
6 Afghan Civilians Killed in Explosion - Associated Press
Report From a Forgotten War - Washington Times opinion
Afghanistan's Telecom Revolution - Washington Post opinion
The Guests at Kabul's Garden Parties - Boston Globe opinion
Pakistan Stops NATO Supplies At Khyber Pass - ThreatsWatch blog
Pakistan Reopens Vital Border Crossing to NATO - The Long War Journal blog
A Few Reinforcements for a Very Difficult Fight - Military Watch blog
Why They Fight - The Belmont Club blog
More Troops for Afghanistan? - The Captian's Journal blog
The Drama of Pakistan - Kings of War blog
Russia / Georgia / Ukraine
A Mission to Moscow, Without High Hopes - New York Times
Sarkozy Leads EU Trio to Moscow - BBC News
White House Set to Put Aside US-Russia Nuclear Agreement - Washington Post
Russia Courts Old Allies, Ups Defiance of the West - Christian Science Monitor
Russia's BP 'Signal' - Wall Street Journal editorial
Kosovo Prelude to Georgia? - Washington Times opinion
West is Losing the Energy Cold War - The Times opinion
Georgia's Troublemaker - Washington Post opinion
Russia 1, Freedom 0 - New York Post opinion
Ukraine, the Big Prize - Westhawk blog
Iran
Iran's Nuclear Future - Washington Post opinion
The Next President's Next War - Washington Times opinion
Iran's Negotiation Strategy: Meandering Protraction - Diplomatic Courier blog
The Long War
Al-Qaeda Remains the Crux of the Problem - Philadelphia Inquirer opinion
Adaptation is Key to National Security - Philadelphia Inquirer opinion
Real Wars and the US Culture War - New York Times opinion
US Department of Defense
Development of Offensive Cyberspace Capabilities Depated - Los Angeles Times
Nuclear Regulation
Rice: US Has Aided In Nuclear Regulation - Washington Post
United Kingdom
MoD Breaches EU Rules by Training Chinese Officer - The Times
Africa
Zimbabwe: Tsvangirai Says No Deal Better Than Bad Deal - Voice of America
Mbeki Bids to Save Zimbabwe Talks - BBC News
Angolan Ruling Party Headed for Landslide Victory - Voice of America
Angola: Opposition Disputes Landslide Vote - Reuters
'Transparent' Poll in Angola - Agence France-Presse
Rwanda: In Search of Sanity After the Slaughter - Sydney Morning Herald
3 Ships Thwart Attacks by Pirates off Somalia - Associated Press
Libya: A Dictator Befriended - Washington Post editorial
Now Sudan Is Attacking Refugee Camps - Wall Street Journal opinion
Americas
Venezuela Announces Plans for Military Exercises With Russia - New York Times
Russia Ships to Join Venezuela Naval Exercises - Los Angeles Times
Prime Minister Chances Early Election in Canada - New York Times
Latin America Wants Free Trade - Wall Street Journal opinion
Asia / Pacific
It Isn't Looking Like Asia's Century - Washington Post opinion
Europe
Turkey and Armenia Start to Mend Old Emnities - The Times
Soccer Diplomacy's Goal - Boston Globe editorial
Eurotrashing Free Speech - National Review opinion
Middle East
Israeli Police Suggest Indicting Olmert - New York Times
Israel Police Recommend Olmert Be Indicted - Associated Press
Cairo Disaster Leaves Many Blaming Mubarak - Christian Science Monitor
Anger, Grief After Cliff Collapses on Slum in Egypt - Los Angeles Times
South Asia
Pakistan: New Leader Faces Violence Jump - Agence France-Presse
Pakistan: Poll Victory Not the Biggest Bombshell - Canberra Times
Pakistan: Love or Hate Him, it's a Win for Democracy - The Australian opinion
Kashmiris Seek Trade Route to Pakistan - Washington Post
India Given Go-ahead on Nuclear Trade - The Times
BOOKS
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
WE ARE SOLDIERS STILL
We Are Soldiers Still - Forward Movement
BOOK DISCUSSIONS / SIGNINGS
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search For a Way Out of Iraq by Linda Robinson. 10 September 2008, 4:30 PM - Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at SAIS, Washington, D.C. Details.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq by Bing West. 11 September 2008, 12:00 - 2:00 PM - Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C. Headquarters. Details.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.
16-18 September - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.
17 September - The Iranian Puzzle Piece: Understanding Iran in the Global Context (Public Event - Symposium). Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the by the Marine Corps University (MCU) and the Marine Corps University Foundation to enhance the overall understanding of Iran, exploring its internal dynamics, regional perspectives, and extra-regional factors and examining its near-term political and strategic options and their potential impact on the course of action of the United States and the USMC.
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.