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--Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, National Defense University
IRAQ
For US and Sunni Allies, a Turning Point - Ernesto Londoño, Washington Post
Across Baghdad, leaders of the groups speak about the transition in similarly apocalyptic terms. Some have left Baghdad, saying they fear that the Iraqi government will conduct mass arrests after the handover. Others are obtaining passports and say they will flee to Syria.
Recognizing that the government has been wary from the outset about the creation of armed, mainly Sunni groups under US control, American military officials are taking several steps to prevent their sudden disintegration. American officials see the Sons of Iraq as a central factor in the reduction in violence, along with the temporary increase in US forces, a year-long cease-fire imposed by a Shiite militia leader and the stepped-up assassinations of key insurgents.
In recent weeks, US military officials began shrinking the ranks of the Sons of Iraq by offering members micro-grants that amount to early-retirement packages.
More at The Washington Post.
AFGHANISTAN
General David Petraeus Applies Pressure for More NATO Troops in Afghanistan - Thomas Harding, Daily Telegraph
Speaking after talks with the Prime Minister, the American military chief bluntly called on NATO countries to contribute more to the Afghan campaign at a time when the Taliban are resurgent.
Gen Petraeus said it was up to NATO member states to reinforce Afghanistan. "Now it is up to national capitals and the alliance to determine how to generate the additional force," he said. "I think it is up to the coalition how to source the forces."
Standing next to the head of the Armed Forces Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, he said Britain had "responded with a very good contribution" by doubling its force in the last two years to 8,000.
It appears the Americans have accepted that efforts by the Pentagon to strong-arm the Ministry of Defence into sending an extra brigade into Helmand province have failed.
Earlier this month, the US defence secretary Robert Gates appeared to be pressuring the MoD into reinforcements after he said that it was his "understanding that the UK may increase the size of its force".
The NATO-led force in Afghanistan has 53,000 troops from 40 countries but the Americans intend to increase their contribution by an extra 14,000 next year.
More at The Daily Telegraph.
Military Embraces Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan - Spencer Ackerman, Washington Independent
According to a study by the Human Terrain Team, attached to Task Force Currahee - the US military team based at Salerno and built around the 4th Brigade Combat Team of the 101st Airborne Division - Paktia Province has a literacy rate of 2 percent. Craig Charney, the primary US pollster to operate in Afghanistan, pointed out that the level of Taliban sympathy in the east is the highest in the country.
The 1-61 Cavalry’s commander, Capt. Chad Collins, 30, pointed out that the rumor mill remains the local population’s primary means of disseminating information. So it counts as an encouraging sign when a half-dozen Afghan villagers interviewed one day out, in the far regions of the cavalry troop’s sector, said they were familiar with Voices of Unity.
The insurgency has planted improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, throughout the the area, to the point where patrols led by the 1-61 Cavalry steer clear of what few roads the sector has. Yet Collins views the radio station run by the two young men as integral to his battle plan.
“The frustration and the challenge,” said Collins, “is that success in Afghanistan is not related to specific military objectives.” Instead, when his soldiers return home next year, he wants to ensure that the Afghan National Police and the Afghan National Army he partners with are able to secure the area on their own. For Collins, the key thing is that local government - “not the tribes,” he said - is “capable of self-rule” and that the government can “provide for its constituents.”
While there may be a debate within the Army as to the proper role of counterinsurgency, in Zormat, the question is settled. Collins - like most of his soldiers, a veteran of the Iraq war - is a counterinsurgency true believer. The captain is more likely to beam with pride over plans to improve the district’s infrastructure than over the number of enemy fighters killed. “It’s a doctrinal shift,” Collins said.
More at The Washington Independent.
THE 2006 LEBANON CAMPAIGN
Dustin' Off the Cold War Playbook - Andrew Exum, Abu Muqawama blog
And brute force succeeds when it is used, whereas the power to hurt is most successful when held in reserve. It is the threat of damage, or of more damage to come, that can make someone yield or comply … It is the expectation of more violence that gets the wanted behavior, if the power to hurt can get it at all. Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (1966)
Today, it’s my great pleasure to introduce an excellent new paper written by Steve Biddle and his former research assistant, Jeff Friedman (now at Harvard, in graduate school) for the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Of all the studies and papers and books I have read on the 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah, this paper written by Steve and Jeff is the one from which I have learned the most. Incredibly, Steve and Jeff wrote this paper without having visited Lebanon. (They were prohibited from doing so since this paper was written under the auspices of the US Army.)
By way of introduction, Steve and Jeff wrestle with the question of ‘guerrilla versus conventional’ – what makes one different from the other, and did Hizballah fight the 2006 war as the former or the latter? As part of the discussion, Steve and Jeff talk about the differences between ‘coercive’ strategies and ‘brute force’ – and this distinction has been a good starting point as I have been trying to make sense of just what Israel was getting at in the disastrous Operation Accountability (1993) and even-more-disastrous Operation Grapes of Wrath (1996).
More at Abu Muqawama.
HEZBOLLAH
Hassan Nasrallah - Thomas P.M. Barnett, Esquire Magazine profile
Most terrorist movements go one of two ways: They either fall apart after the top leaders are captured or killed, or they are successfully drawn into the political process and ultimately assimilated by the ruling political forces. Hezbollah's rise within Lebanon increasingly looks like the latter, except it is Lebanon's splintered political system that is being assimilated into Hezbollah's radical Islamic agenda rather than the other way around. Now in control of close to a dozen ministries and capable of forcing the installation of its preferred president (a feat Hezbollah pulled off this summer), this Shiite militia--backed extensively by Iran--has become Lebanon's de facto ruling party.
Forty-eight-year-old Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's charismatic secretary-general since 1992, is part Yasir Arafat (he earned his stripes as a guerrilla commander fighting Israel's occupation in the 1980s) and part Ayatollah Khomeini (then spent years abroad burnishing his meager religious street cred and honing his skill for mob-igniting fiery sermons). And, oh, part Huey Long, because he has proved that he can deliver services to a desperate people that the government couldn't or wouldn't. Israel long ago decided that it can't live with him (attempting to assassinate him just like his predecessor) but eventually may come to the conclusion--along with Washington--that it can't live without him.
Nasrallah, who currently holds no public office, wants to rule Lebanon openly, but with Shiites constituting roughly a third of the population, his only route to Supreme Leadership replicates Iran's long-standing strategy of emphasizing a staunchly anti--Israeli/US front. In this quest, Nasrallah has succeeded brilliantly, presiding over both Israel's embarrassing withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and its failed military effort to reduce Hezbollah's southern state-within-a-state in the summer of 2006, yielding a 34-day war that shell-shocked Beirut's fragile ruling coalition, not to mention the world.
More at Esquire.
AFRICA
Pirated Arms Freighter Cornered by US Navy - Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times
American warships on Monday surrounded an arms-laden freighter hijacked by pirates, sealing off any possible escape in a standoff near the craggy Somalia coastline.
Lt. Nathan Christensen, a Navy spokesman, said that “several destroyers and missile cruisers” had joined the American destroyer that was already following the hijacked vessel. He would not specify the number of warships or what they would do if the pirates refused to surrender.
“Our intent is for the ship not to offload any of its cargo,” he said, referring to the 33 battle tanks and large supply of grenade launchers and ammunition now in the hands of the pirates.
The ship, operated by a Ukrainian arms supplier, was hijacked Thursday in Somalia’s pirate-infested waters. The American military, among others, fears that the pirates could sell the dangerous cargo to Islamist insurgents battling Somalia’s weak government.
And the controversy over where exactly the tanks were going has heated up again.
Two Western diplomats in Nairobi, a maritime official and the pirates themselves said the arms were headed for Sudan or other neighboring countries, not Kenya, as the Kenyan government has repeatedly claimed.
More at The New York Times and as follows:
US Warships Surround Hijacked Ship in Somalia - Voice of America
US Navy Bolsters Watch Over Ship Seized by Somali Pirates - Washington Post
US Warships Surround Hijacked Vessel - Washington Times
Where Were Russian Tanks Destined on Hijacked Ship? - Los Angeles Times
Stolen Tanks Add Urgency to Piracy Fight - Christian Science Monitor
US Navy Watches Seized Ship with Sudan-bound Tanks - Associated Press
The Russians Deploy to Somalia - Information Dissemination blog
5th Fleet Focus: Pirates Not Our Problem - Information Dissemination blog
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Pakistani Refugees Pour Into Afghanistan - New York Times
Karzai Seeks Saudi Help in Taliban Peace Talks - Associated Press
Military Working to Establish Air Corps - United Press International
Afghan Policeman Opens Fire on US Troops, Kills 1 - Associated Press
Kidnapped Afghan Diplomat Recovered in Pakistan - Reuters
The Coming Winter Combat - Captain's Journal blog
Tribal Awakening in Pakistan? - Captain's Journal blog
Pakistan Engages the Tribes in Effort to Fight the Taliban - Long War Journal blog
Taliban Conscripting Sons In Pakistan - ThreatsWatch blog
Six Developments Will Collide on the Afghan-Pakistan Frontier - Westhawk blog
Pakistan
Pakistan Picks New Chief For Intelligence Agency - Washington Post
Pakistan Picks New Intelligence Chief - New York Times
UN to Probe Bhutto's Assassination - The Australian
Iraq
Al-Maliki Says Security Pact in US, Iraqi Interest - Associated Press
How Iraqi Teenager Turned Into a Sucide Bomber - The Times
Iraq Press Roundup - United Press International
Of More Important Things - Forward Movement blog
Iran
Iran Remains Unyielding, Gates Says - AFPS
Tehran's Intentions an Enigma to UN - Associated Press
Bet on Israel Bombing Iran - New York Daily News opinion
US, Iraq Step Up Operations Against Iranian Terror Groups - Long War Journal blog
ElBaredei Warns But No New Sanctions on Iran - ThreatsWatch blog
US Intervention
Avoiding the Choices of 1914 and 1938 - Boston Globe opinion
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
The Fragility of the Global Nuclear Order - Boston Globe opinion
Homeland Defense
To Make Sea Traffic Transparent - Washington Times opinion
Islam
Speaking Truth to Islam - Daily Telegraph editorial
US Congress
Bringing an End to ‘Libel Tourism’ - New York Times editorial
US Department of Defense
Gates Criticizes Conventional Focus At Start of Iraq War - Washington Post
Defense Chief Criticizes Bureaucracy at the Pentagon - New York Times
Gates: Military Force, Technology Have Limits - Los Angeles Times
Balance at Heart of National Defense Strategy, Gates Says - AFPS
US Defense Chief Calls for a Balanced US Military Strategy - Voice of America
Gates Calls for a Balanced Military - Associated Press
Gates Predicts No Sharp Cuts in US Defense Budgets - Reuters
Gates Warns of the Limits of US Military Power - Agence France-Presse
Gates: US Troops Likely to Stay in Iraq - United Press International
Technology is No Cure-all, Gates Tells Military - Reuters
Australia Department of Defence
New Wheels for Special Forces in $4.6bn Army Upgrade - The Australian
US Counterintelligence
Ex-official Reports Counterintelligence is Weak - Washington Times
Africa
Kidnapped Tourists Freed by Special Forces - The Times
19 Hostages Seized in Egypt Are Freed - New York Times
Tourists Kidnapped in Egypt are Freed - Los Angeles Times
Troops Rush in to Free Tour Group Taken from Egypt - Associated Press
Sahara Hostages Freed Unharmed, Some Gunmen Killed - Reuters
Darfur Rebels Deny Shooting Down UN Helicopter - Agence France-Presse
Zimbabwe Waits - The Times editorial
ANC Split Grows as Premier Quits - Daily Telegraph
South African Democracy - Washington Times editorial
South Africa's Single-party State Sputtering - Thomas P.M. Barnett blog
Food Crisis in Africa - Washington Times opinion
Americas
Ecuador Votes to Lock in its Shift to the Left - Christian Science Monitor
Mexican Police Find 12 Bodies Next to School - Associated Press
Asia / Pacific
US Sends Top Envoy to North Korea to Try to Save Nuclear Deal - VOA
The Caucasus
The Real Target of Russian Pressure on the Caucasus - Thomas P.M. Barnett blog
Europe
On Exhibit, Georgian War and a New Russian Pride - New York Times
Russia Plows On - Washington Times opinion
Belarus Elections Denounced by Monitors - The Times
Middle East
More Trouble in Middle East Political Forecast - United Press International
Explosion Targets Lebanese Army Bus in Tripoli - Voice of America
5 Die in Blast Targeting Lebanese Army - Washington Post
5 Soldiers Killed in Lebanon Bombing - New York Times
Explosion in Tripoli Kills 4, Injures 30 - Los Angeles Times
Lebanon, Syria Blame Bombings on Islamic Militants - Los Angeles Times
Olmert Says Israel Must Withdraw From 'Almost All' of Occupied Territories - VOA
Olmert Says Israel Should Pull Out of West Bank - New York Times
Olmert Says Israel Must Withdraw From West Bank - Los Angeles Times
Olmert: Israel 'Must Give Land for Peace' - Daily Telegraph
Why Israeli Settlers are Lashing Out - Christian Science Monitor
Failure Written in West Bank Stone - Washington Post opinion
New Lebanon War? - New York Post opinion
South Asia
Sri Lanka: Closing in on Tamil Stronghold - Christian Science Monitor
Bombs Kill 5 in India Cities, Adding to Toll Across Nation - New York Times
New Indian Bombs Kill Five - Daily Telegraph
A Bad India Deal - New York Times editorial
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
The War Within - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 U.S. troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq?
EVENTS OF INTEREST
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.