--David Ignatius, Washington Post
AFGHANISTAN
Revealed: Secret Taliban Peace Bid - Jason Burke, The Guardian
The Taliban have been engaged in secret talks about ending the conflict in Afghanistan in a wide-ranging 'peace process' sponsored by Saudi Arabia and supported by Britain, The Observer can reveal.
The unprecedented negotiations involve a senior former member of the hardline Islamist movement travelling between Kabul, the bases of the Taliban senior leadership in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and European capitals. Britain has provided logistic and diplomatic support for the talks - despite official statements that negotiations can be held only with Taliban who are ready to renounce, or have renounced, violence.
Sources in Afghanistan confirmed the controversial talks, though they said that in recent weeks they had 'lost momentum'. According to Afghan government officials in Kabul, the intensity of the fighting this summer has been one factor. Another is the inconsistency of the Taliban's demands.
'They keep changing what they are asking for. One day it is one thing, the next another,' one Afghan government adviser with knowledge of the negotiations said. One aim of the initiative is to drive a wedge between Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
More at The Guardian.
Weak Government Allows Taleban to Prosper in Afghanistan - Tom Coghlan, The Times
The wild-eyed policemen were high on opium, harassing locals and demanding bribes from drivers on the road so recently built at the expense of the British taxpayer.
“I might as well shoot myself in the head,” said one officer, jaw slack and eyes unfocused, as he leant on his Kalashnikov. “We have no life, no salary, and no respect from the people.”
His tattered uniform flapping, he added, with apparent self-loathing: “It is true what people say: the police are the robbers round here.”
The scene illustrated the central problem facing the UK in Helmand province, where 8,000 British troops are trying to impose order. British counter-insurgency doctrine has a single, central objective: to deliver security to the people. Without this, the Taleban and the raft of other challenges cannot be met.
Since the arrival of British forces in 2006, however, security across the province has collapsed and British forces now face a swirling, toxic cocktail of Taleban infiltration, tribal feuding, banditry and drug-funded anarchy.
Among the most visible sources of criminal behaviour are the demoralised, underpaid and predatory Afghan police - and it is now the Taleban, with their reputation for brutal but impartial justice, who appear to be gaining ground in this war of popular perceptions, successfully presenting themselves as the guardians of the public.
More at The Times.
What a Surge Can't Solve in Afghanistan - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion
If there was one foreign policy issue on which Barack Obama and John McCain agreed during Friday night's debate, it was that the United States should send more troops to Afghanistan. The bipartisan enthusiasm for this surge is so strong that there has been relatively little discussion of whether this strategy makes sense.
So here's a skeptical look at the issue, drawn from conversations during a visit to Afghanistan this month with Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Rather than more troops, the real game-changer in Afghanistan may be Gates's plan to spend an extra $1.3 billion on surveillance technology to find and destroy the leadership of the insurgency.
The case for more troops was made forcefully by the new US commander, Gen. David McKiernan. He said in a briefing in Kabul that to cope with rising violence, he needs three more combat brigades, in addition to the extra brigade already promised for early next year. That could add at least 15,000 troops to the current force of about 35,000. Other senior officers made similar pitches in briefings at Bagram and Jalalabad.
But the commanders' description of the enemy that these troops will be fighting was fuzzy. The adversary isn't al-Qaeda; it's not even the Taliban. It's what McKiernan called a "nexus of insurgency" and what other officers described as a "syndicate" of insurgents and criminal groups.
More at The Washington Post.
PAKISTAN
Spec Ops Raids into Pakistan Halted - Sean Naylor, Navy Times
US special operations forces have paused ground operations in Pakistan’s tribal areas, but military and civilian government officials differ over why the cross-border raids have been halted.
The issue of US raids into the tribal areas was thrust into the international spotlight by a Sept. 3 raid in Angor Adda, in the South Waziristan tribal agency, by Navy SEALs working for a Joint Special Operations Command task force. (JSOC is the secretive military organization that oversees the military’s special mission units such as the Army’s 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment–Delta and the Navy’s Naval Special Warfare Development Group, or DevGru, also known as SEAL Team 6.)
“We have shown a willingness starting this year to pursue those kinds of missions,” said a Pentagon official. However, he said, after temporarily granting JSOC greater latitude to conduct cross-border missions, US leaders had decided to again restrain the command, at least as far as raids using ground troops are concerned, to allow Pakistani forces to press home their attacks on militants in the tribal areas.
“We are now working with the Pakistanis to make sure that those type of ground-type insertions do not happen, at least for a period of time to give them an opportunity to do what they claim they are desiring to do,” the Pentagon official said, adding that this did not apply to air strikes launched from unmanned aerial vehicles at targets inside the tribal areas.
Although JSOC is the organization tasked, along with the Central Intelligence Agency, with finding and killing or capturing al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Sept. 3 raid was not aimed at “a huge type of target,” the Pentagon official said. “There were just consistent problems in that area that had come to a point where there was significant evidence that there was complicity on the part of the [Pakistani military’s] Frontier Corps and others in allowing repetitive raids and activities to go on. And there was a firm desire to, one, send a message, and two, also establish any intelligence audit that could be established that would be useful to respond to a frequent question that we get from the other side of the border, which is, ‘Well, show us and tell us where the problem is, then we’ll deal with it.’”
More at Navy Times.
THE LONG WAR
Connecting Geopolitical Dots - Arnaud de Borchgrave, Washington Times opinion
As the United States teeters on the brink of a disaster not seen since the Great Depression, two wars are also headed south.
Yemen, a hotbed of pro-al Qaeda sentiment in the war on terror, ruled out any further crackdown on extremists. And as crime increases in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, so does sympathy and nostalgia for Taliban rule when crime was virtually eliminated by amputation of hands.
Another dot is the erosion of support for the US drive to tighten the economic screws against Iran for its ongoing refusal to come clean on its secret drive to join the nuclear club. Russia made clear its refusal to cooperate with the United States and the European Union against Iran was in response to the US drive to isolate Moscow for its military intervention in Georgia.
North Korea provided another dot in the global jigsaw puzzle. Perceived US weakness, as seen from the hermit kingdom, provided an opportunity to bar UN inspectors from its main plutonium reprocessing plant. At the same time, it reactivated the plant that provided the fissile material for its first atomic explosion. And in public opinion polls, South Korean youth appeared more in tune with Pyongyang than the Bush administration.
Pakistan is yet another dot connected to perceptions of the American Gulliver tied down by millions of subprime Lilliputian mortgages held by Wall Street's overcompensated "Masters of the Universe." Some commentators have suggested US-Pakistani relations are at an all-time low. Not that bad. But bad enough to question whether US and NATO objectives in Afghanistan can still be met.
More at The Washington Times.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Fight in Tribal Region Key to Battle with al Qaeda - Agence France-Presse
15 Militants Die After Clash with Pakistani Troops - Associated Press
UN: 20,000 Flee From Pakistan Into Afghanistan - Associated Press
Leading Policewoman Malalai Kakar Shot Dead in Afghanistan - The Times
British Troops to Get Bomb-proof Vehicles - The Times
In Afghanistan, Hit 'em Where they Aren't - Christian Science Monitor opinion
Pakistan
Is Pakistan's New President Up to the Job? - Los Angeles Times
The Most Dangerous Job on Earth - New York Times opinion
Iraq
US Says Iran is Meddling in Iraq Talks - Associated Press
Blasts Around Iraqi Capital Kill at Least 27 - Washington Post
Holiday Bombings Kill 27 in Baghdad - New York Times
Iraq Bombings Kill 31 - Los Angeles Times
The Strongest Tribe: Valuable Analysis - Austin American-Statesman
In Iraq, the Headband Makes the Man - Los Angeles Times
Watching the Big Game, Far From Home - Washington Post
Iran
Iran Tests Candidates - The Australian editorial
An Arms Race We’re Sure to Lose - New York Times opinion
A Threat Bigger than Wall St - The Australian opinion
Art of War
A John Boyd Minefield at Small Wars Journal? - HG's World blog
National Security
US Urged to go on Offense in Cyberwar - United Press International
Conversation with Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft - Los Angeles Times
Homeland Defense
New Security Organization Will Try to Prevent Nuclear Theft - New York Times
New Rules for the FBI - Washington Post editorial
Port Security: A Logical Path Forward - Washington Times opinion
US Supreme Court
When Judges Make Foreign Policy - New York Times opinion
United Nations
UN Appeals Directed at Next US President - Washington Times
Low-Profile UN Chief Struggles as Diplomatic Peacemaker - Washington Post
Africa
Foreign Farmers Tap Africa's Overlooked Resource: Food - Los Angeles Times
Islamists Await Hijacked Ship's Weapons Cache - The Times
$20m Somali Ransom Demand for Ship; 1 Crewman Dies - Associated Press
52 Somalis Die in Attempt To Reach Yemen From Gulf - Washington Post
Egypt Tourist Kidnappers 'Killed' in Sudan - BBC News
South Africa's Democracy 'Resilient' - The Australian
Americas
Voters in Ecuador Approve Constitution - Washington Post
President Wins Support for Charter in Ecuador - New York Times
Ecuador Voters Approve Constitution - Los Angeles Times
Asia / Pacific
Doubt Arises in Account of an Attack in China - New York Times
Thai Courts Help Shape Political Landscape - Washington Post
Indonesia: Yudhoyono to Seek Second Term - The Australian
The Troubled North Korea Deal - New York Times editorial
The Caucasus
To Smother Rebels, Arson Campaign in Chechnya - New York Times
Europe
London Attack May Be Tied to Book About Muhammad - New York Times
Loyalists Sweep Vote in Belarus - New York Times
Far Right Storms Election in Austria - The Times
Cyprus: Reunification Appears Near - Washington Times
Middle East
US Army Deploys Radar System in Israel - New York Times
Car Bomb Targets Troops in Lebanon - Reuters
Signs of Trouble Seen Before Syria Bombing - Los Angeles Times
Syria Says Suicide Attacker Behind Weekend Bombing - Associated Press
Syrian Bombing: A Jihadi Attack? - Christian Science Monitor
Jews and Muslims Share Holy Season in Jerusalem - New York Times
Israel's Elections - Washington Times opinion
South Asia
Indian Police Using Undue Force On Terror Suspects - Washington Post
Flawed India-pact Opposition - Washington Times opinion
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq?
EVENTS OF INTEREST
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
