--David Ignatius, Washington Post
AFGHANISTAN
What a Surge Can't Solve in Afghanistan - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion
If there was one foreign policy issue on which Barack Obama and John McCain agreed during Friday night's debate, it was that the United States should send more troops to Afghanistan. The bipartisan enthusiasm for this surge is so strong that there has been relatively little discussion of whether this strategy makes sense.
So here's a skeptical look at the issue, drawn from conversations during a visit to Afghanistan this month with Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Rather than more troops, the real game-changer in Afghanistan may be Gates's plan to spend an extra $1.3 billion on surveillance technology to find and destroy the leadership of the insurgency.
The case for more troops was made forcefully by the new US commander, Gen. David McKiernan. He said in a briefing in Kabul that to cope with rising violence, he needs three more combat brigades, in addition to the extra brigade already promised for early next year. That could add at least 15,000 troops to the current force of about 35,000. Other senior officers made similar pitches in briefings at Bagram and Jalalabad.
But the commanders' description of the enemy that these troops will be fighting was fuzzy. The adversary isn't al-Qaeda; it's not even the Taliban. It's what McKiernan called a "nexus of insurgency" and what other officers described as a "syndicate" of insurgents and criminal groups.
More at The Washington Post.
Taliban Revival Sets Fear Swirling Through Kabul - Christina Lamb, The Times
Nobody seriously thinks the Taliban could take Kabul. The capital is surrounded by mountains, has only a few routes in and remained almost untouched during the Russian occupation. Afghanistan has more than 71,000 foreign troops under the leadership of NATO and the US, neither of which can contemplate defeat.
It is hard to find any Afghan families who hanker after a Taliban regime that banned everything from girls’ schools to television and regarded public amputations and executions as entertainment.
However, the fear among Kabulis is palpable. “There is a sense of dread of return to the dark days of the past,” said a western diplomat.
NATO spokesmen may reel off statistics of schools and clinics built, but even the wildest optimist would be hard put to talk up Afghanistan at present. This year 232 soldiers have been killed, the most since the Taliban fell in 2001, and last year civilian deaths tripled to more than 4,500. The highways, paid for with billions of foreign dollars, are now regarded as out of bounds for foreigners and many Afghans.
More at The Times.
PAKISTAN
US Incursions Seen as Risky for Pakistan - Sara Carter, Washington Times
US policy targeting al Qaeda militants inside Pakistan without its foreknowledge and consent may be jeopardizing the country's fragile democratic government, which is struggling to defeat Islamic extremists on its own, regional specialists and US intelligence officials say.
A recent exchange of fire along the Afghan border between Pakistani and US forces could be a sign of dissent within the Pakistani military about newly elected Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari's close relationship with Washington and with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the officials and specialists said.
"Pakistan has experienced a period of serious political uncertainty over the past year," said a US official, who is familiar with intelligence reporting on Pakistan and asked not to be identified because of the nature of his work.
It's still not clear why the Pakistani military shot Thursday at two NATO helicopters, which International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) said were not flying in Pakistan's airspace. There were also reports of an exchange of fire between ground forces, although no reports of casualties.
It's possible that the Pakistani military acted without authorization from civilian authorities to protest previous US incursions into Pakistan, including a raid on Sept. 3.
More at The Washington Times.
The Long Road to Chaos in Pakistan - Dexter Filkens, New York Times
The chaos that is engulfing Pakistan appears to represent an especially frightening case of strategic blowback, one that has now begun to seriously undermine the American effort in Afghanistan. Tensions over Washington’s demands that the militants be brought under control have been rising, and last week an exchange of fire erupted between American and Pakistani troops along the Afghan border. So it seems a good moment to take a look back at how the chaos has developed.
It was more than a decade ago that Pakistan’s leaders began nurturing the Taliban and their brethren to help advance the country’s regional interests. Now they are finding that their home-schooled militants have grown too strong to control. No longer content to just cross into Afghanistan to kill American soldiers, the militants have begun to challenge the government itself. “The Pakistanis are truly concerned about their whole country unraveling,” said a Western military official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive.
That is a horrifying prospect, especially for Pakistan’s fledgling civilian government, its first since 1999. The country has a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons. The tribal areas, which harbor thousands of Taliban militants, are also believed to contain Al Qaeda’s senior leaders, including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri.
More at The New York Times.
IRAQ
US, Iraq Say Progress Made on Security Deal - Voice of America
Officials from Iraq and the United States say they are close to reaching a security deal that will provide a legal basis for the presence of US troops in the country.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari says negotiations on the agreement were in its final stages.
Zebari spoke to reporters Saturday at the start of talks with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Rice has also said that there has been good progress. However, she adds that certain protections are needed for US forces so they can continue to make security gains in Iraq.
The agreement will authorize US troops to remain in Iraq after the current UN mandate expires on December 31.
Iraq has said that it wants all US forces withdrawn by 2011. Iraqi officials also object to US demands that American troops have legal immunity for crimes committed in the country.
Any agreement must be ratified by the Iraqi parliament.
IRAN
Security Council Presses Iran on Nuclear Program - Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times
The United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution on Saturday pressing Iran to comply with international efforts to monitor its nuclear development program, reaffirming both earlier sanctions and the offer to end the confrontation through negotiations.
“The added value of the resolution we have adopted today is that it is channeling the minds of everybody in the direction of political rather than military enterprises,” said Vitaly I. Churkin, the Russian ambassador.
The measure contained no new sanctions, which the West supports but Russia and China oppose. The point of the resolution was to temper the impression that the tension over Georgia was leaching into other issues, with Russia balking at attending a meeting last Thursday to discuss further measures against Iran.
The resolution is the first concerted response to the International Atomic Energy Agency report issued this month criticizing Iran for its lack of cooperation and suggesting it might be hiding military experiments linked to the nuclear program.
More at The New York Times.
AMERICAS
Fears of Turmoil Persist as Powerful President Reshapes Bitterly Divided Bolivia - Simon Romero, New York Times
At first glance around this rebellious city, President Evo Morales seemed to have suffered a sharp setback this month. Mobs looted nearly every federal building, strewing offices with broken furniture and spraying walls with graffiti calling him a vassal of President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela in explicitly racist language.
The devastation is telling of the turbulence of Bolivia’s politics these days. But it belies Mr. Morales’s gathering strength in the country at large, and the stresses it has placed on Bolivia’s wobbly democratic institutions, which he has set about recasting amid rising violence by his supporters and opponents alike.
The election of Mr. Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, in 2005 was a watershed in South America, as long-marginalized native peoples took power for the first time - through the ballot box.
Increasingly, the question confronting Bolivia, a country of deep ethnic and geographical divisions, is how they will wield that power, and whether Mr. Morales can redress the historical grievances of Bolivia’s indigenous majority while keeping his country from descending into chaos.
More at The New York Times.
AFRICA
US Destroyer Joins Pursuit of Pirates off Somalia - Edmund Sanders, Los Angeles Times
A US destroyer and a Russian warship headed Saturday for a possible confrontation with pirates who hijacked a cargo ship carrying battle tanks, machine guns and a crew of 21.
Though pursued by ships from two of the world's biggest naval powers, the pirates showed no sign of surrendering the Ukrainian vessel Faina, which they boarded Thursday off the Somali coast as it headed to Kenya. Instead, according to unconfirmed reports, they were demanding a $35-million ransom to turn over their unconventional booty, which includes 33 Russian-built T-72 tanks.
The pirates also warned against any raids by the US or Russian navies.
The brazen seizure occurred in notoriously dangerous international waters off the Horn of Africa, where pirates exploit Somalia's lawlessness. A Greek oil tanker was also seized by pirates in the area Friday, maritime officials said. And twice this year, French commandos have intervened to rescue citizens taken hostage off Somalia.
Pirates operate with relative freedom and impunity in and around the Somali port city of Eyl in the semiautonomous Puntland region, where officials say more than 300 hostages are being held and several hijacked ships are docked.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
President Hamid Karzai - Washington Post interview
US in Pakistan Raids to Thwart al-Qaeda - Daily Telegraph
General: Violence Likely to Rise 30% - Associated Press
Militants Attack Pakistani Forces; Pole Kidnapped - Associated Press
Top Woman Police Officer In Afghan South Killed - Reuters
Iraq
Captors Offer up British Hostage Body - The Times
The Strongest Tribe: Valuable Analysis - Austin American-Statesman
National Security
Conversation with Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft - Los Angeles Times
Homeland Defense
Port Security: A Logical Path Forward - Washington Times opinion
US Supreme Court
When Judges Make Foreign Policy - New York Times opinion
Anthrax Investigation
Two Portraits of a Bioterror Suspect - Washington Post
Africa
S. Africa: Zuma’s Rise Puts Whites to Flight - The Times
S. Africa: ANC Faces Split Over Mbeki - Daily Telegraph
Foreign Farmers Tap Africa's Overlooked Resource: Food - Los Angeles Times
Americas
Cuba Uses Ideological Zeal to Lift Spirits and Direct Anger - New York Times
Asia / Pacific
Administration Pushing to Salvage Accord With N. Korea - Washington Post
Burma Summit Unable to Agree on Reform Steps - Washington Times
Chinese Astronaut Takes Nation’s First Spacewalk - New York Times
As China's First Spacewalk Unfolds, Anchors Keep Their Cool - Washington Post
Europe
UK: Muslim Gang Firebombs Publisher of Allah Novel - The Times
Ukraine-Russia Tensions Rise in Crimea - Los Angeles Times
Getting Away With Tweaking Putin - New York Times
War Left Georgia Economy Bruised, but Not Broken - New York Times
For Refugees, Georgia Conflict Stirs Up Old Fears - Washington Post
Belarus Bureacracy: The Opposition’s Biggest Enemy - Daily Telegraph
CIA ‘Backed’ Irish Battle Against Brussels Treaty - The Times
In Remote Albania, Centuries-old Code of Honor Survives - Associated Press
Middle East
Car Bomb In Syrian Capital Kills 17 - Washington Post
Car Bomb Kills 17 in Syria Near Intelligence Office - New York Times
Car Bombing in Damascus Kills at Least 17 - Los Angeles Times
Young Iranians Release Book Caricaturing The Holocaust - Washington Post
Israel’s Demi-Greek Tragedy - New York Times
Israeli Officials: US Sends Radar to Israel - Associated Press
Inside Gaza's Secret Tunnels - Daily Telegraph
South Asia
House Approves Nuclear Trade Deal With India - New York Times
Bomb Explosion In Indian Capital Kills 1, Injures 18 - Washington Post
Boy Killed in Blast at Market in India - New York Times
War Worsens as Sri Lanka Puts Pressure on Rebels - Associated Press
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq?
EVENTS OF INTEREST
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
