QUOTE OF THE DAY

--John Nagl, Washigton Post

COMPLEX OPERATIONS

Can Counterinsurgency Win? - Daniel Pipes, Washington Times opinion

When it comes to a state fighting a nonstate enemy, there is a widespread impression the state is doomed to fail.

In 1968, Robert F. Kennedy concluded that victory in Vietnam was "probably beyond our grasp," and called for a peaceful settlement. In 1983, the analyst Shahram Chubin wrote that the Soviets in Afghanistan were embroiled in an "unwinnable war." In 1992, US officials shied away from involvement in Bosnia, fearing entanglement in a centuries-old conflict. In 2002, retired US Gen. Wesley Clark portrayed the American effort in Afghanistan as unwinnable. In 2004, President George W. Bush said of the war on terror, "I don't think you can win it." In 2007, the Winograd Commission deemed Israel's war against Hezbollah unwinnable.

More than any other recent war, the allied forces' effort in Iraq was seen as a certain defeat, especially in the 2004-06 period. Former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, former British minister Tony Benn, and former US special envoy James Dobbins all called it unwinnable. The Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group Report echoed this view. Military analyst David Hackworth, among others, explicitly compared Iraq to Vietnam: "As with Vietnam, the Iraqi tar pit was oh-so-easy to sink into, but appears to be just as tough to exit."

The list of "unwinnable wars" goes on and includes, for example, the counterinsurgencies in Sri Lanka and Nepal. "Underlying all these analyses," notes Yaakov Amidror, a retired Israeli major general, is the assumption "that counterinsurgency campaigns necessarily turn into protracted conflicts that will inevitably lose political support."

Gen. Amidror, however, disagrees with this assessment. In a recent study published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, "Winning Counterinsurgency War: The Israeli Experience," he convincingly argues that states can beat nonstate actors.

More at The Washington Times.

US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY

Spy Agencies Turn to Newspapers, NPR, and Wikipedia for Information - Alex Kingsbury, US News and World Report

A few days ago, a senior officer at the Pentagon called his intelligence officer into his office. The boss had heard a news report about China while driving to his office and wanted some answers. It wasn't a tough assignment, given the news coverage, but there was a hitch. "There was plenty of information in the public domain about the topic," recalls the intelligence officer, a 10-year veteran. "And yet, if there wasn't some classified information cited in my report, the boss would never believe it was accurate."

That's a common refrain in the intelligence community when the subject of so-called open-source information comes up. It's the kind of anecdote recounted over and over again this week at the intelligence community's second annual conference on the use of open-source information.

Another anecdote involves public information - commonly newspaper reports - that is paraphrased or quoted verbatim and then stamped "classified" to make the report more appealing to superiors.

Yet it's a practice that might be changing. The use of nonclassified information, whether news accounts or other publicly retrievable information, is gaining credibility within the intelligence community. And officials say there can be good reasons for putting some of that open-source information under the secrecy umbrella. "The information might be unclassified but our interest in it is not," Gen. Michael Hayden, head of the CIA, told the conference.

More at US News and World Report.

IRAQ

He Came, He Cut Deals, He (May) Conquer - Linda Robinson, Washington Post opinion

Iraq still divides Democrats and Republicans like no other issue, as the campaign rhetoric of both parties makes abundantly clear. Liberals and conservatives can now more or less agree that Iraq is a much, much safer country than it was 18 months ago. But each side is peddling its own story about Iraq's extraordinary turnaround -- and both are wrong.

Many conservatives believe that the 2007 "surge" in US troop levels directly produced the decline in Iraqi violence. Meanwhile, liberals argue that Iraq's warring Shiites and Sunnis spontaneously decided -- for their own internal reasons, unrelated to the surge -- to stop fighting. As is so often true of Washington debates, these arguments bear little relation to the reality of how Iraq actually pulled out of its death spiral, which is far more interesting than either partisan yarn. There was no single silver bullet, but rather a multifaceted strategy crafted and carried out by those in Baghdad -- not, despite recent claims, in Washington.

I came to this conclusion after reporting in Iraq for a total of 10 months since 2003 and after extensive interviews with Iraqi and US leaders, as well as with troops in the most violent neighborhoods of greater Baghdad, the epicenter of the conflict. My biggest question was my simplest: How did Gen. David H. Petraeus do it?

My answer? Bottom line, for the first time since the war began, a US leader decided to address the political motivations of the Iraqi combatants. Petraeus convened a study group that shrewdly analyzed the raging sectarian conflict, then came up with what he called "the Anaconda strategy" to address the underlying dynamic.

More at The Washington Post.

Grim at Blackfive has posted an excellent roundup (with transcripts) of roundtables conducted with officers in Iraq. Grim also offers up a nice summary. Very good stuff.

BLUF: Progress in Iraq is outstanding in the regions south of Baghdad, but is running much slower in the regions to the north. In the west, Anbar -- though behind the southern regions by some measures -- has enjoyed an extraordinary turnaround from being the center of the Sunni insurgency to a region under Iraqi control. Overall, even in the slow regions, post-Surge Iraq is on the right glidepath. However, we as a nation do need to take the time to finish the mission responsibly in order to ensure that the victory is a firm and lasting one.

Much more at Blackfive.

PAKISTAN / AFGHANISTAN

The War in Pakistan - Washington Post editorial

For more than six years, the Bush administration has relied on Pakistan's government and army to combat Taliban and al-Qaeda networks based in the country's tribal territories along the border with Afghanistan. The result has been the strengthening of both networks in the rugged and virtually lawless region; a steady increase in Taliban assaults on US and NATO forces in Afghanistan; and ominous reports that al-Qaeda is using its bases to prepare for new attacks on Western targets, including the United States. By now it is clear that Pakistani army and security forces lack the capacity to defeat the extremists -- and may even support some of the Taliban commanders. Pakistan's army has arranged truces with some of the extremists that don't preclude them from fighting in Afghanistan. USofficials say that the Pakistani intelligence service was complicit in a July 7 suicide bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul.

In these circumstances President Bush's reported decision in July to step up attacks by US forces in the tribal areas was both necessary and long overdue.

More at The Washington Post.

Pakistan Pursuing Diplomacy on Raids - Paul Alexander, Associated Press (Washington Times)

Pakistan is backing off suggestions it might confront US troops making raids into its territory in search of Islamic militants, saying Saturday it will deal diplomatically with Washington over the stepped-up tactics.

Although officials are still unhappy over a recent surge in attacks aimed at Taliban and al-Qaida havens in Pakistan's tribal areas near the Afghan border, they also seem to realize there's not much they can do other than try to convince the US that the strategy is counterproductive because it is generating sympathy for the militants and public anger against both governments due to civilian casualties.

President Bush secretly approved more aggressive cross-border operations in July, current and former American officials have told The Associated Press.

Since Aug. 13 there have been at least seven reported missile strikes as well as a raid by helicopter-borne US commandos that Pakistani officials claim killed 15 civilians in tribally governed territory where the government has little control. The frontier region is considered a likely hiding place for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri.

More at The Washington Times.

INDIA

Explosions at 5 Sites in India’s Capital Kill 18 - Hari Kumar and Somini Sengupta, New York Times

The Indian capital was rocked by terrorist attacks on Saturday as a series of synchronized explosions hit five crowded markets and thoroughfares, including Connaught Place, a tourist destination in the heart of the city.

Shivraj Patil, India’s home minister, said 18 people had been killed. Scores were wounded — in one hospital alone, more than 50 casualties were wheeled in within two hours of the blasts. The police and government officials called for calm, and the streets of the capital turned quiet Saturday night.

The bombings were the latest in a series of terrorist attacks in cities across the country apparently intended to sow panic, inflict civilian casualties and, according to Indian officials, inflame tensions between Hindus and Muslims.

In the past three years, mosques and temples have been attacked. The attacks on Saturday took place during Ramadan, the Muslim holy month.

More at the New York Times, Washington Post, BBC News, Los Angeles Times, Voice of America, Financial Times, Daily Telegraph and Associated Press.

PHILIPPINES

In Philippines, Abandoned Deal Reignites Rebel War - Blaine Harden, Washington Post

After years of calm, the oldest insurgency in Asia has flared into a brutish war, with burned villages, slain families, artillery bombardments, vigilante death squads and hundreds of thousands of displaced people.

The match was lit last month when the Philippine government abruptly backed out of an all-but-done peace deal it had been quietly negotiating for years. That enraged Muslim rebels here on Mindanao, a lush and resource-rich island where Muslims and Christians have been elbowing each other for power and land for more than four centuries.

A savage cycle of fear, fighting and intimidation has begun again in Mindanao. Relief officials predict the mess will churn on for months. The International Committee of the Red Cross is appealing for increased aid from abroad to feed, house and care for 500,000 civilians it estimates have been affected by fighting.

The Philippine government insists that its dispute with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) over the expansion here of a semiautonomous political entity for Muslims can be resolved only by talking, not by fighting.

But President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has renounced the autonomy agreement negotiated by her appointees -- after its legality was questioned by the country's highest court and after its once-secret provisions for Muslim autonomy proved unpopular among the country's Christian majority.

More at The Washington Post.

NORTH KOREA

Power Wielded in Kim's Absence - Sara Carter, Washington Times

Senior members of the military and the Korean Workers' Party have been ruling North Korea while their leader, Kim Jong-il, is incapacitated, and the nuclear-armed country is not likely to become unstable in the near future, US intelligence officials and Korean specialists say.

Three US officials and a former US official who still works with North Korea said that Mr. Kim, 66, had been battling health problems for months before he suffered an apparent stroke last month, leaving day-to-day responsibilities to subordinates.

The leader's sickness should not disrupt the internal politics in a nation accustomed to a poor economy and isolation.

More at The Washington Times.

ZIMBABWE

Security is First Test of Zimbabwe Deal - RW Johnson, The Times

A call for British troops to return to Zimbabwe and train its army will provide a crucial early test of whether an agreement to be signed tomorrow by President Robert Mugabe and his opponent Morgan Tsvangirai is a power-sharing deal or merely a fig-leaf for continued despotic rule.

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Tsvangirai, who will become prime minister under the agreement, will demand the return of the British military advisory and training team, which trained Zimbabwe’s security forces after independence.

About 200 British troops were based in Zimbabwe from independence in 1980 until they were withdrawn after the seizure of white farms began in 2000.

Their presence would reassure the MDC, whose leaders are worried about the deal’s viability, particularly after Mugabe told tribal chiefs this weekend that putting his Zanu-PF together with the MDC was “like mixing fire and water”.

Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence officials said they were aware of the call for military assistance but had not had a request from Harare. After independence the British training force provided intelligence capacity and the ability to extract foreign nationals in an emergency.

Under the deal, Mugabe will retain control of the army, while Tsvangirai will run policing. The army, which has been ruthlessly used with the so-called “war veterans” to attack MDC campaigners, will need to be depoliticised to restore law and order.

More at The Times.

NEWS & OPINION NOTES

Iraq

4 Journalists, 9 Others Killed in Iraq Violence - Washington Post
Bomb Kills 8 Kurdish Soldiers, Inflaming Regional Dispute - New York Times
Iraq Militants Target TV Crew - Los Angeles Times
Militants Kill Four from TV Station - Associated Press
Bombs Target Security Forces - BBC News
We Will Spill UK Blood, Warns Sheikh - The Times
This Time, Things Are Looking Up - Washington Post opinion
Meet the New Law, Same as the Old Law - Abu Aardvark blog

The War Within

Woodward's Reporting vs. Editorializing - White House press release
White House Criticizes Woodward Book Anew - Washington Post

Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas

Defense Contracts Foretell Military Buildup in Afghanistan - Washington Post
Provincial Governor Killed in Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times
British Operations in Helmand Afghanistan - Small Wars Journal
Pakistan: US Playing With Firepower - The Times
Use a Big Stick, But Use it Carefully - The Times editorial
Afghanistan Raid: 3 Arrested Over 'Massacre' - ThreatsWatch blog
The Importance of Kandahar - The Captain's Journal blog
Pakistan to “Retaliate and Kill” US Troops - Contentions blog
Pentagon Dangles Afghan Road Hype; Reporters Bite - Danger Room blog
We Will Also Work to Increase the Involvement of Afghan Tribes - CIIDG blog

Russia / Georgia

Russian Troops Take Down Some Georgia Checkpoints - New York Times
Russians Conduct Partial Pullout - Associated Press
A Baltic Response to the Bear - Washington Post opinion
Dealing with Russia - Washington Times opinion
Dealing with Russia II - Washington Times opinion

Iran

War Film Shows a Different Side of Iran - Los Angeles Times
Bar Ahmadinejad From US - Washington Times opinion

The Long War

New London Terror Warning - The Times
UK: Omagh Bombing: Details from Phone Taps 'Not Passed On' - Daily Telegraph
Future Tense? - Washington Times opinion
Unsecured Homeland Agenda - Washington Times opinion
YouTube Bans Al Qaeda - The Captain's Journal blog

US Foreign Aid / Security Assistance

US Arms Sales Climbing Rapidly - New York Times

National Service

Time Embraces a Timeless Idea - Weekly Standard opinion

World

We May Miss Kim Jong-il (and Maybe Musharraf) - New York Times

Africa

Sudanese Army 'Bombing N. Darfur' - BBC News
Nigerian Rebels: Government Botched Rescue Mission - Voice of America
From Boom to Bust in Nigeria's Oil Town - Washington Post

Americas

Chavez Dials Back Dispute with US - Washington Times
Bolivia Appeals for End to Unrest - BBC News
Death Toll in Bolivia Unrest Reaches 18 - Associated Press
Morales, Chávez Resort to Tired Tactics - Miami Herald editorial
24 Bodies Found Near Mexico City - Los Angeles Times
Mexicans Find 24 Dead and Suspect Drug Gangs - Reuters

Asia / Pacific

China's Military Ambition Fuels Asian Arms Race - Daily Telegraph
US and China in Secret Talks over N. Korea Fears - Daily Telegraph
The Plan Post-Kim: No Plan - Newsweek opinion
North Korean Adventure - Washington Post opinion
Kim Jong Il, Fading Out? - Westhawk blog
Malaysian Seeks End to Decades of Firm Rule - New York Times
Acting Leader Ends Bangkok’s State of Emergency - Associated Press
On China: A New Approach to All of Asia - New York Times opinion
Asia's 'Democratic Crisis' - Wall Street Journal opinion
Asia's Georgian Cold - Weekly Standard opinion

Europe

Revealed: UK’s First Official Sharia Courts - The Times
The Mixed Lessons, and Legacies, of Munich 1938 - Los Angeles Times opinion
Serbia’s Radical Party: Strange Convulsions - A Fistful of Euros blog

Middle East

‘Iron Lady’ Set to be Israel’s New Leader - The Times
Israel's Livni Prepared to End Talks with Syria - Daily Telegraph
Saudi Judge Condemns 'Immoral TV', Condones Murder - BBC News

South Asia

India to Spend More on Defence - Daily Telegraph
Pass the US-India Nuclear Accord - Washington Post editorial
Meet Pakistan's New President - Chicago Tribune editorial
Pakistan's Zardari: A New Partner, Warts and All - Boston Globe opinion

BOOKS

In a Time of War - Bill Murphy

The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.

Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor

This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.

The Strongest Tribe - Bing West

From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.

Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson

After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.

We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway

In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

16-18 September - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.

17 September - The Iranian Puzzle Piece: Understanding Iran in the Global Context (Public Event - Symposium). Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the by the Marine Corps University (MCU) and the Marine Corps University Foundation to enhance the overall understanding of Iran, exploring its internal dynamics, regional perspectives, and extra-regional factors and examining its near-term political and strategic options and their potential impact on the course of action of the United States and the USMC.

2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.