Flash Point: South Ossetia (9 - 11 August) - Small Wars Journal
Flash Point: South Ossetia (12 August) - Small Wars Journal
Flash Point: South Ossetia (13 August) - Small Wars Journal
Flash Point: South Ossetia (14 August) - Small Wars Journal
Flash Point: South Ossetia (15 August) - Small Wars Journal
NEWS
Medvedev Defiant on Response - Fredrick Kunkle, Washington Post
President Dmitry Medvedev remained defiant Friday in response to international criticism of his country's war with Georgia, as Russia's tanks and troops showed no sign of leaving its neighbor's territory three days after a truce was declared. Speaking in the Black Sea port of Sochi, Medvedev also had harsh words for an agreement that Poland and the United States signed Thursday to build an antimissile facility on Polish soil. The deal was "aimed at the Russian Federation," he said. A senior Russian general suggested that the base's presence might expose Poland to a military strike. .US leaders, who staunchly supported Georgia in the conflict, dialed up their rhetoric as well. President Bush told Russia to stop "bullying" its neighbor. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew into the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, to offer support and secure a signature to a peace document from President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Rice, in Georgia, Calls on Russia to Pull Out Now - Kramer and Levy, NY TImes
The United States pressed on Friday for the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces in Georgia, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice came here, not far from the front lines, to win the Georgian president’s approval for a redefined cease-fire. She pushed to close a loophole that Russia could use to justify its advance deep into Georgia. As Ms. Rice spoke at a news conference, a Russian column of at least a dozen armored vehicles moved to within roughly 25 miles of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, by far the Russians’ closest approach to the city. The battle of angry words sharpened as well: the Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, accused the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, of harboring “idiotic ideas” that had provoked the war.
Georgia Forced to Accept a Russian Occupation - Tony Halpin, The Australian
President Saakashvili was forced to accept defeat yesterday as he signed a peace agreement that gives the Russian Army the right to patrol on Georgian soil. In a critical amendment to the ceasefire drawn up by President Sarkozy of France, the Kremlin forced Mr Saakashvili to accept that Russian troops could control a buffer zone of Georgian territory up to 10km beyond the border of the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Mr Saakashvili was humiliated further when the final text of the agreement, delivered personally by Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, removed a reference to Russian recognition of Georgia’s territorial integrity. It referred only to independence and sovereignty, a day after Ser-gei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, said that the world could forget about Georgia’s territorial integrity.
Cease-Fire Is Not a Red Light - C. J. Chivers, New York TImes
The highway heading west from Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, has been one of the country’s main development projects under President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose government has been fond of calling it the “Sukhumi Highway.” The nickname is a reference to the capital of the separatist enclave of Abkhazia, which Mr. Saakashvili had hoped to wrest from Russian influence and bring under Georgian control. On Friday, the road flowed the opposite way. Russian armor used it to travel nearly to the edge of the Georgian capital, in defiance of a cease-fire agreement. The unexpected military advance demonstrated anew the powerlessness of Georgia’s security forces, which had no influence over the move even as it coincided with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s meeting with Mr. Saakashvili.
Defiant Russia Advances After Ceasefire - Daily Telegraph
Russia has defied a ceasefire agreement concluded in the presence of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and moved more troops into advanced positions deep inside Georgia. Despite a firm warning from the United States that Russian forces must withdraw and a Kremlin statement Moscow would "faithfully" abide by the terms of a ceasefire, military operations continued. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev today signed a French-brokered plan to end the fighting in Georgia, but the agreement allows Russian troops to control a buffer zone of Georgian territory surrounding the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Russian troops manoeuvred around the Gori and pushed deeper towards another town - Akhalgori - with a column of around 1,000 men, possibly South Ossetian irregulars. Another detachment remained just 25 miles from the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, near the village of Igoeti, where they showed no signs of moving.
Harsh Words Heat Up Georgia Crisis - Daragahi and Reynolds, Los Angeles Times
The ongoing conflict over Georgia's breakaway regions prompted even harsher rhetoric from all sides Friday, including Russian anger over an accord to install a US missile defense system in Poland. As Moscow continued to insist on autonomy for the disputed Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev accused the United States of trying to encircle Russia by signing the agreement to install antimissile interceptors in Poland in the midst of the current crisis. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew to Tbilisi to meet Georgian President Mi- kheil Saakashvili, who signed a formal cease-fire. She echoed President Bush's demand that Russian troops withdraw from Georgia. Rice described Russia's incursion as an "attack," language sure to anger Moscow officials who insist that Georgia started the conflict over the fate of its secessionist-minded provinces that has spilled into Georgia proper.
Georgia Leader Signs Truce, But Will Russia Leave? - Associated Press
Georgia's president grudgingly signed a truce with Russia Friday, even as he denounced the Russians as invading barbarians and accused the West of all but encouraging them to overrun his country. A stone-faced Condoleezza Rice, standing alongside, said Russian troops must withdraw immediately from their smaller neighbor. President Bush talked tough, too, accusing the Russians of "bullying and intimidation," but neither he nor Rice said what the US might do if Russia ignored them. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's press office had no information Friday night on whether he had signed the cease-fire agreement. Russia's foreign minister assured Rice later that his country would implement the deal "faithfully," a US official said.
US Warns Russia To Halt 'Invasion' Of Georgia - Stefan Bos, Voice of America
United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has condemned Russian military operations in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, saying the action reminds her of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. She spoke in Georgia where the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili declared that his country would never surrender despite Moscow's military might. In one of her strongest statements to date, Rice condemned what some have described as Russia's first foreign invasion since the Cold War ended. Georgia says Russia now controls one-third of the country, three days after Moscow accepted a European Union-brokered cease-fire. Rice said she no longer trusts Russian peacekeepers who have been present in Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has made clear however that the world in his words "can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity." Georgian President Saakashvili responded that his country will never give up territory, including the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which seek closer ties with Russia.
Russian Convoy Moves Deeper Into Georgia - Voice of America
A Russian convoy has moved deeper into Georgia, advancing to about 50 kilometers from the capital, Tbilisi. News agency reports from the scene say 10 armored vehicles left the war-battered city of Gori headed toward the capital, but they stopped near the village of Igoeti. Russian troops have allowed some humanitarian supplies into Gori, after blocking access to the city for several days. Georgian authorities have been trying to re-enter the abandoned town, but so far have refused to endorse a proposal for South Ossetian police to patrol Gori. Russian officials told reporters Friday that they discovered a large depot of US-made weapons near the Georgian town of Senaki. US officials have not responded to the comment. In another development, Human Rights Watch said it has uncovered evidence that Russian aircraft dropped cluster bombs on Georgia.
Georgian Refugees' Plight is Grim - Megan Stack, Los Angeles Times
They squat in abandoned buildings, crash in rickety schoolhouses or sleep under bushes and trees. They stumble into the city wooden-faced and traumatized, children in tow, with little or nothing but the clothes they were wearing when they fled their houses. Tens of thousands of Georgians have been forced from their homes by days of fighting and Russian occupation, leaving this small country suddenly swamped in a major humanitarian crisis. Georgia is now packed with homeless and panicked families in desperate need of shelter, clothes, food and medicine. This week's cease-fire has not ended the suffering.
Georgia Conflict Casts Shadow Over US-Russian Relations - Voice of America
Diplomatic efforts are continuing in an effort to secure a cease-fire in Georgia and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the former Soviet Republic. Analysts say relations between the United States and Russia have deteriorated over the last few years. Some of the reasons included Moscow's more assertive foreign policy, its opposition to US efforts to place a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe and its strong objection to Washington's support of Ukraine and Georgia to become members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - or NATO. But experts say Moscow's recent massive military response in Georgia to Tbilisi's abortive attempt to take control of the capital of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, has cast an even greater shadow on US - Russian relations.
Georgia Crisis Frays Web Linking Moscow and West - Associated Press
The struggle over a tiny, impoverished part of the Caucasus mountains has erupted into a widening confrontation between Russia and the West, the worst since the Soviet Union collapsed. The rift between Russia and the former Soviet state of Georgia over South Ossetia, a hilly land the size of Rhode Island, threatens a web of institutions spun since the end of the Cold War to tie Moscow to the US and Europe. One by one, the strands holding the web together are fraying. Even if the cease-fire holds in Georgia, the consequences of the crisis could be grim: Tensions might jeopardize Russian energy shipments to Europe, cut the US off from access to the International Space Station, end intelligence cooperation between Washington and Moscow in the war on terrorism.
Cease-Fire Accord Specifies Russian Troop Withdrawal from Georgia - AFPS
A cease-fire agreement signed today by the president of the former Soviet republic of Georgia calls for Russian troops to immediately leave his country, America’s senior diplomat said in the Georgian capital today. “And now, with the signature of the Georgian president on this cease-fire accord, all Russian troops and any irregular and paramilitary forces that entered with them must leave immediately,” US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said during a news conference in Tbilisi with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili at her side. President Bush dispatched Rice to Europe to assist in resolving a now week-long international crisis involving Georgia and Russia. On Aug. 8, Russian tanks and troops crossed the border into the contested northern Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, after Georgian military forces had clashed with separatists in South Ossetia the day before. The Russian troops caused Georgian forces to retreat south. Since then, the Russians have lodged themselves in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as in some Georgian municipalities farther south. Rice was in Tbilisi today, she said, to demonstrate “the solidarity of the United States with Georgia and its people in this moment of crisis.” The United States, she said, supports Georgia’s independence, its territorial integrity and its democratically elected government.
An Uneasy Calm in Gori - Associated Press
As diplomats try to get a cease-fire agreement between Georgia and Russia signed and put into place, an uneasy kind of calm has settled on Gori, occupied by the Russians and situated just south of South Ossetia. Russian armored vehicles rattle down near-empty streets, and the few remaining residents line up for bread and talk with the soldiers, who have restored a semblance of order. Many of the people who are left are rattled or frightened. Most buildings appear intact, though a few on the outskirts were burned. Electricity is scarce, and there are very few people left, most of them men or elderly. Younger people fled into the mountains or to Tbilisi.
Military Brings in Aid for Georgia - Kelly Hearn, Washington Times
The Pentagon has flown 86 tons of humanitarian supplies into the Georgian capital of Tbilisi on two C-17 and two C-130 aircraft as of Friday, a top military official said. The humanitarian aid - delivered through what military officials are calling a “sustained air bridge” - has taken the form of cots, sleeping bags, blankets and 1,200 pounds of antibiotics, said Rear Adm. Steven Romano, US European Command Director of Logistics. He said medical supplies such as splints, bandages and field examination tables had also been transported. Adm. Romano said he is in close contact with a US advanced assessment team currently on the ground in Georgia to find critical-need spots and access security.
'Comfort' is on Standby for Georgia Aid - David Wood, Baltimore Sun
With a $20 million, 24-nation aid effort under way for victims of the fighting in Georgia, the USNS Comfort, Baltimore's familiar white-hulled hospital ship, remains idle at its Canton pier, though on standby for possible deployment to the region. The Pentagon sent a military team into war-ravaged Georgia yesterday to determine what supplies are needed and the most effective ways to deliver them. Two Air Force C-17 cargo planes have already carried basic loads of shelter, food and clothing. The Comfort, with its 12 operating rooms and fully staffed 1,000-bed hospital, could provide badly needed medical services. The ship is also capable of producing large quantities of fresh water. But Lt. Cmdr. Steven Pigman, an administrative officer on board the Comfort, said it would take five days to get under way. Most of that time is required to load food and medical stores and assemble its medical and support staff of 1,000 to 1,200 people.
Georgia Transportation Plan Demonstrates US Flexibility, Responsiveness - AFPS
The transport of more than 1,800 Georgian soldiers from Iraq to Tbilisi and humanitarian supplies from Germany to Georgia highlights the flexibility and responsiveness the US military manifests, a senior US Transportation Command officer said today. “When this requirement came up, we had to figure out how do we make this happen quickly,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Michael C. Gould, TransCom’s director of operations and plans, aid in an interview today. “We had to get the Georgian troops back, and sustain what we have going in Iraq and Afghanistan.” When the Russians attacked into South Ossetia last week, US planners around the world quickly surged into motion and TransCom coordinated plans to accomplish these missions. The Georgian government had sent a brigade’s worth of troops to Iraq as part of the coalition. The US government had promised Georgian leaders that the troops would be transported home quickly if needed. The Russian invasion of Georgia fit that bill. Gould said TransCom leaders worked closely with planners from the Air Force’s Air Mobility Command and with the operators at US Central Command. Within 36 hours, the Air Force began flying the Georgians back to their capital at Tbilisi. Some of that time was spent collecting the Georgians from their duty stations in and around Baghdad and from Baqouba.
Propagandists Turn to Dick Cheney Plot - Charles Bremner, The Australian
Russians were told over breakfast yesterday what really happened in Georgia: the conflict in South Ossetia was part of a plot by US Vice-President Dick Cheney to stop Barack Obama being elected president of the US. The line came on the main news of Vesti FM, a state radio station that - like the Government and much of Russia's media - has reverted to the old habits of Soviet years, inwhich a sinister US hand washeld to lie behind every conflict, especially those embarrassing to Moscow. Modern Russia may be plugged into the internet and the global marketplace but in the battle for world opinion the Kremlin is replaying the old black and white movie. The Obama angle is getting wide play. It was aired on Wednesday by Sergei Markov, a senior political scientist who isclose to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. "George Bush's administration is promoting interests of candidate John McCain," Dr Markov said.
NEWS VIDEOS
NEWS ANALYSIS / COMMENTARY
Mythmaking in Moscow - New York Times editorial
The events of the past week in the small Caucasus republic of Georgia will prompt animated debates about Russia and US-Russian relations. We view the events as confirmation of the dangerous challenge posed by an authoritarian regime unwilling to recognize the sovereignty of its former imperial possessions. Many will take issue with our interpretation, and that is as it should be. But the debate should be based on facts. Instead, assertions of the Russian leadership that have proved contrary to fact continue to circulate.
The New Chill - Washington Post editorial
Russia’s brazen invasion of Georgia has raised a host of chilling questions that Americans and many others around the world had hoped were long settled. Is Russia a threat — to its neighbors, to Europe, to the United States? What are the United States and its NATO allies prepared to do if Russia blackmails or attacks another sovereign democratic nation that is not a member of the alliance? Should the West continue to engage Russia or focus more on containing its ambitions? President Bush has begun a crisis-induced reassessment of America’s ties with Russia that his successor will have to revise and implement.
Making Putin Pay - Wall Street Journal editorial
Vladimir Putin proved last weekend that Russia's army can push over Georgia's army. In the past 48 hours, the West has begun to push back. If its leaders stay the course, they may yet turn Mr. Putin's meager military success into a significant political defeat. In Washington yesterday, President Bush issued a statement of precisely the sort the world expects from American leadership in such circumstances. It made clear what he understands to be Mr. Putin's goals and made equally clear the intention to resist those goals, and why doing so is in the world's interests.
Russia's Brutal Invasion - Washington Times editorial
Russia's brutal invasion of Georgia is a damaging blow to the prestige and reputation of US-led NATO -- a major cornerstone of US military security strategy in Europe since the end of World War II. And the decision by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ( implemented by his handpicked successor as president, Dimitry Medvedev) to invade and occupy Georgian territory is aimed at preventing that democratic US ally from joining NATO and sending a clear message to another target of Russian bullying, Ukraine. The message is that if President Yuschenko's government joins NATO, Moscow will seek its dismemberment -- just as it is doing today in Georgia.
Georgia Invasion - Philadelphia Inquirer editorial
After enjoying a few days at the Olympics, President Bush is saying and doing all the right things regarding the ongoing Russian invasion and occupation of a neighboring state. "The United States of America stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia," he said Wednesday. "We insist that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected." Bush was right to call the Russians on their continuing violations of a barely day-old cease-fire brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. He was also right to task Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the US military with providing humanitarian relief to the Georgians. That's the right organization for the task. And unlike Georgian civilians, American forces would be more than capable of defending themselves, should that be necessary. Bush is also right to send Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice overseas in response to the crisis.
Russia Must Not Dictate NATO Membership - Damien McElroy, Daily Telegraph
David Cameron, the opposition leader, warned Russia must not be allowed to dictate the composition of NATO as he met with Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili to express British solidarity with the beleaguered nation. Standing side-by-side with Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze, Mr Cameron said Russia must immediately end its “illegal” invasion of its Caucasian neighbour. “I think it’s important that the world’s oldest democracy must stand with one of the newest when it’s been illegally invaded by another country,” he said. “We wanted to come to express the strongest possible support of the British people, British government and British opposition for Georgia, its independence and integrity. But as Mr Cameron spoke, Russian forces moved at will across a broad swathe of Georgia, in defiance of yesterday’s ceasefire agreement. Troops encroached on more Georgian towns and patrolled the Black Sea port of Poti.
Strongman Putin on the Blitz - Greg Sheridan, The Australian
You have to hand it to the Bush administration. It is very ballsy. Even in its dying days, with its military stretched in the Middle East, it managed, after an initial few days of dithering and hoping the Russians would come to their senses, to find a remarkably effective response to the Russian invasion of Georgia. The US sent its military to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia. It did this after the Russians had committed to a ceasefire. The Georgians immediately and deliberately misinterpreted the move as meaning that the US would be guarding Georgia's seaports and airports. No, that's not right, US spokesmen said. We're not doing that. But we do expect that the Russians will not interfere with humanitarian aid. And we will be protecting our assets. This was a brave and dangerous move by the Americans. But it was calibrated. It was tough. And it might just do enough to keep the pro-Western Government of Georgia's President, Mikheil Saakashvili, in power.
Russia's Georgia Win - Ralph Peters, New York Post
As the Russian Dark Lord's shadow falls across the shires of freedom once again, the response from the West has been confused, belated and inadequate: fear eclipsed courage; ignorance masqueraded as wisdom; and, in "Old Europe," greed vanquished justice. Russia won. Diplomacy failed. No state or alliance will reverse the decision. When President Bush spoke out strongly on Friday, Moscow ignored him: Words mean nothing to Prime Minister Putin, a man who regards all compromise as weakness. Instead of backing down, Russia suggested that Poland might become a nuclear target for agreeing to host our defensive missile system.
No Cold War, but Big Chill Over Georgia - Steven Lee Myers, New York Times
“The cold war is over,” President Bush declared Friday, but a new era of enmity between the United States and Russia has emerged nevertheless. It may not be as tense as the nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union, for now, but it could become as strained. Russia’s military offensive into Georgia has shattered, perhaps irrevocably, the strategy of three successive presidential administrations to coax Russia into alliance with the West and integration into its institutions. From Russia’s point of view, those efforts were never truly sincere or respectful of its own legitimate political and security interests. Those interests, it is now clear, are at odds with those of Europe and the United States. As much as Mr. Bush has argued that the old characterizations of the cold war are no longer germane, he drew a new line at the White House on Friday morning between countries free and not free, and bluntly put Russia on the other side of it.
In Georgia, Hazards of Proxy War - David Wood, Baltimore Sun
In the early 1990s, the United States began beefing up Georgia's army as the tiny republic gained independence from the collapsing Soviet Union -- an effort accelerated after 9/11 in what President Bush said was a fight against al-Qaida. That "train and equip" program is part of a growing, global US initiative to bolster military forces in such unlikely and unstable places as Ethiopia. Chad, Albania, Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Yemen. But critics, pointing to the week's violent events in Georgia, say it is a dangerous form of proxy warfare that can get out of hand. Indeed, after receiving American training and equipment worth more than $1.5 billion since 1992, Georgia used its military forces last week in a confrontation, not against al-Qaida terrorists, but with Russia. Georgia's bid to reassert control over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia exploded into an international crisis.
Crisis in Georgia: How Misha Messed Up - Mark Mackinnon, Globe and Mail
As fighting raged all over his tiny former Soviet country this week, a CNN anchor asked Georgia's brash and unpredictable President Mikhail Saakashvili whether he had believed his country could actually win a military showdown with Russia. "I'm not crazy," the President answered in his American-inflected English. Others weren't so sure. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev charged that Mr. Saakashvili had acted like a "lunatic" in provoking the conflict and said he needed to be removed from office. A French diplomat suggested Mr. Saakashvili had been mad to take on Russia, and American officials wondered how he could have so badly misread their signals calling for restraint in his efforts to reclaim the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Many of his own people are shaking their heads at how "Misha," as he is affectionately known, could have backed their country into such a dangerous corner.
'We Are All Georgians'? Not So Fast. - Michael Dobbs, Washington Post
It didn't take long for the "Putin is Hitler" analogies to start following the eruption of the ugly little war between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia. Neoconservative commentator Robert Kagan compared the Russian attack on Georgia with the Nazi grab of the Sudetenland in 1938. President Jimmy Carter's former national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, said that the Russian leader was following a course "that is horrifyingly similar to that taken by Stalin and Hitler in the 1930s." Others invoked the infamous Brezhnev doctrine, under which Soviet leaders claimed the right to intervene militarily in Eastern Europe in order to prop up their crumbling imperium. "We've seen this movie before, in Prague and Budapest," said John McCain, referring to the Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Hungary in 1956. According to the Republican presidential candidate,"today we are all Georgians." Actually, the events of the past week in Georgia have little in common with either Hitler's dismemberment of Czechoslovakia on the eve of World War II or Soviet policies in Eastern Europe. They are better understood against the backdrop of the complica ted ethnic politics of the Caucasus, a part of the world where historical grudges run deep and oppressed can become oppressors in the bat of an eye.
What Is To Be Done? - Frederick Kagan, Weekly Standard
The Cold War isn't back. The Russian attacks on Georgia don't mean American soldiers will soon be staring at Red Army soldiers in the middle of Germany or that U.S. defense spending must triple to match a global Russian military juggernaut. But Vladimir Putin's aggression, and the justifications offered for it by Russian leaders, could nevertheless mark a historic turning point. They are a deliberate assault on the structure of international norms and on Western credibility. The West's response to this assault has so far been anemic. American rhetoric about Russia's actions has been strong but has not deterred Putin from pushing even harder. France's president, Nicholas Sarkozy, went from Moscow to Tbilisi with a Russian ultimatum in his hand disguised as a compromise armistice. Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvili, signed it while parts of his country were occupied by Russian troops and Russian military aircraft circled overhead. If Sarkozy believes that he has brought peace in our time, he's in for a disappointment. The countries that responded most courageously are those most vulnerable to the imperialistic precedent Putin is attempting to establish--the Baltic States, Ukraine, Poland, and Azerbaijan. The choice before the West now is very clear: We either help those states--and Georgia--protect themselves, or we serve as midwife to a reborn Russian Empire and an international order that is red in tooth and claw.
When the War Ends, Start to Worry - Michael Bronner, New York Times
Even as Russia and Georgia continue their on-again, off-again struggle over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a frenzied tea-leaf reading about the war’s global political ramifications has broken out across airwaves and think-tank forums. But as the situation on the ground recedes inevitably to some new form of the pernicious “frozen conflict” that has plagued the region since Georgia’s civil wars of the early 1990s, few are paying attention to a less portentous but equally critical international threat: an increase in the longstanding, rampant criminality in the conflict zones that is likely to further destabilize the entire Caucasus region and at worst provide terrorist groups with the nuclear material they have long craved. While the Russian “peacekeepers” who entrenched themselves in the conflict zones in the 1990s (and who will now likely resume their posts anew) have proved ineffectual and uninterested in maintaining stability, they’ve been highly successful in protecting an array of sophisticated criminal networks stretching from Russia through Georgian territory. South Ossetia, in particular, is a nest of organized crime. It is a marketplace for a variety of contraband, from fuel to cigarettes, wheat flour, hard drugs, weapons, people and, recently, counterfeit United States $100 bills “minted” at a press inside the conflict zone.
History's Back - Robert Kagan, Weekly Standard
One wonders whether Russia's invasion of Georgia will finally end the dreamy complacency that took hold of the world's democracies after the close of the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet Union offered for many the tantalizing prospect of a new kind of international order. The fall of the Communist empire and the apparent embrace of democracy by Russia seemed to augur a new era of global convergence. Great power conflict and competition were a thing of the past. Geo-economics had replaced geopolitics. Nations that traded with one another would be bound together by their interdependence and less likely to fight one another. Increasingly commercial societies would be more liberal both at home and abroad. Their citizens would seek prosperity and comfort and abandon the atavistic passions, the struggles for honor and glory, and the tribal hatreds that had produced conflict throughout history. Ideological conflict was also a thing of the past. As Francis Fukuyama famously put it, "At the end of history, there are no serious ideological competitors left to liberal democracy." And if there were an autocracy or two lingering around at the end of history, this was no cause for concern. They, too, would eventually be transformed as their economies modernized. Unfortunately, the core assumptions of the post-Cold War years have proved mistaken. The absence of great power competition, it turns out, was a brief aberration.
Don't Abandon Georgia to Moscow - Marcus Gee, Globe and Mail
Foolish Georgians for baiting the Russian bear. Silly Americans for egging them on. Armchair strategists are wagging fingers over the supposed naiveté of Georgia and its superpower ally over the conflict in the Caucasus. In this blame-the-victim analysis, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili started the whole thing by attacking separatists in South Ossetia, giving Russian leader Vladimir Putin the perfect excuse to respond in force. Washington encouraged the Georgian hothead by pumping him up with praise and making him think that it would gallop to his aid, while in fact it has no power at all to help. The facts are somewhat different. While Mr. Saakashvili blundered at the start and Washington underestimated the Russians, it is wrong to place the blame on the Georgians and their American allies. That blame rests squarely with Moscow, which orchestrated the whole business with the skill of a Shostakovich.
Blaming the Victim - Matthew Continetti, Weekly Standard
Blaming the victim is nothing new. But, in the days since Russian tanks first rolled into democratic Georgia, we have been rather surprised at the alacrity with which some--on both the left and right--have blamed that tiny country for the onslaught, and the West for encouraging Georgia's liberalization. That encouragement, it has been argued, led Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili to believe he could use military force to quell insurgents in the breakaway province of South Ossetia, thereby all but guaranteeing Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's retaliatory assault. This is not just a foolish argument, it is a pernicious one. It masks the true nature of the conflict and assumes that all the actors in this drama are moral equals. They are not. Putin has been pressuring Georgia for years. Indeed, Russian despots have long considered the southern Caucasus, along with Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, their personal stomping grounds. There is no need to rehearse the long, complicated, and bloody history; suffice it to say that the tradition did not end with the Soviet empire. In the Caucasus, for example, Russia almost certainly had a hand in the fall of Georgian nationalist president Zviad Gamsakhurdia in 1992, as well as that of Azerbaijan's president Abulfaz Elchibey in 1993. Both were replaced by pro-Moscow strongmen. But Russian hegemony over Georgia was upset in November 2003, when the pro-Western democrat Saakashvili came to power.
US Again Blindsided by Events Overseas - David Olive, Toronto Star
The most surprising thing about Russia's attack on Georgia is that Washington's foreign policy establishment was surprised. Once again, the world's largest intel community - America has about two dozen intelligence agencies - allowed the US to be blindsided by foreseeable events. It did so in failing to alert America to the looming 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union; the destructive activities of Al Qaeda in the 1990s, culminating in the attacks in New York and Washington on Sept. 11, 2001; and the absence of a casus belli - the phantom weapons of mass destruction in Saddam Hussein's Iraq - for the Bush administration's witless invasion of that sovereign nation. Russia was immediately dubbed the bad guy in its inexcusable killing of Georgian civilians in support of the semi-autonomous, Russian-backed Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. But Russia for years has been signalling its displeasure with Western encroachment on its sphere of influence.
ON POLAND AND MISSILE DEFENSE NEWS / COMMENTARY
Russian Says Shield Makes Poland Target - Jon Ward, Washington Times
A top Russian general said Friday that hosting a US missile shield makes Poland a Kremlin military target, even as Moscow lowered its saber by agreeing to a cease-fire with the former Soviet republic of Georgia in their nations' weeklong war. According to Russia's Interfax news agency, Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn said Poland's decision could even lead to a nuclear attack on the Kremlin's former Warsaw Pact ally. Russia's president also denounced the US-Poland deal as an anti-Russia act, though he stopped short of threatening Warsaw.
Russia in Nuclear Threat to Poland - Philp and Halpin, The Times
Russia threatened Poland with a nuclear strike yesterday as the ripples of the Caucasus conflict spread through Europe and pitched West against East along new borders. In a chilling echo of the Cold War, Russia gave warning that Poland was “exposing itself to a strike - 100 per cent” after signing a deal with the US to set up a missile shield on Polish soil. The threat, the strongest since the fall of the Soviet Union, came as President Saakashvili of Georgia was forced to accept defeat as he signed a truce giving the Russian Army the right to patrol Georgian soil. General Anatoli Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of the general staff in Moscow, said that Russian military doctrine sanctioned the use of nuclear weapons “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them”, as Poland had done in signing the deal.
Russia: Poland Risks Attack Because of US Missiles - Associated Press
A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a US missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported. The statement by Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn is the strongest threat that Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite nations. Poland and the United States on Thursday signed a deal for Poland to accept a missile interceptor base as part of a system the United States says is aimed at blocking attacks by rogue nations. Moscow, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force.
A Catastrophe in the Making - Richard Beeston, The Times
Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister, could not have chosen his words better when he told his countrymen: “We have crossed the Rubicon.” He was speaking after the signing of an agreement with America to base ten US interceptor missiles on Polish soil, ostensibly to protect the West against rogue states such as Iran. To clinch the deal, the US also agreed to boost Poland’s defence with Patriot missiles and to conclude a mutual defence treaty “in case of trouble”. Trouble came hours later in the form of a direct threat from General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the Russian deputy chief of staff, who warned the Poles that they should now regard themselves as potential nuclear targets. The Russians believe that the interceptors have nothing to do with Iran but are part of a Western defensive shield that could one day make the Kremlin’s huge stockpile of ballistic missiles obsolete.
Poland Chooses Sides - New York Post editorial
Even as Russia yesterday continued its heavy-handed intimidation of the former Soviet bloc, the government of Poland sent a message of its own to Moscow. After 18 months of talks, Warsaw agreed to place a US missile-defense base on Polish soil, while Washington committed America to defend Poland "in case of trouble" - presumably of the military variety. Clearly Polish President Lech Kaczinsky and Prime Minister Donald Tusk have been following Moscow's continuing march through Georgia - evidence of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's determination to re-establish its domination over Eastern Europe. Such a move is of particular danger to Poland, which Russia historically has eyed as a buffer, a vassal - or both.
BACKGROUND / QUICKLOOKS
Peace Accord Sarkozy Gave to Georgians - New York Times transcript
Timeline: Key Events in Russian-Georgian Relations - Associated Press
Day-by-Day: South Ossetia Crisis - BBC News
Q&A on Georgia - New York Times
How Russian and Georgian Forces Stack Up - Reuters
South Ossetia Picture Gallery (1) - Washington Post
South Ossetia Picture Gallery (2) - Washington Post
Factbox: International Reaction to South Ossetia Conflict - Reuters
Georgia - Library of Congress Country Study
Russia - Library of Congress Country Study
Georgia - CIA World Factbook
Russia - CIA World Factbook
Georgia - US State Department Background Note
Russia - US State Department Background Note
Georgia - BBC Country Page
Russia - BBC Country Page
South Ossetia - New York Times background and related news
South Ossetia - BBC background
DISCUSS
Small Wars Council - Discussion and study / background links
