THE LONG WAR

Al-Qaeda's Youth Recruiting - Steve Schippert, Threats Watch

CBS News is reporting an up-tick in al-Qaeda’s recruitment of young boys into its terrorist ranks. While not questioning the core point of the report (youth recruitment), it may be worth pausing to re-consider the context provided. No doubt al-Qaeda has stepped up its recruitment of young boys into its terrorist ranks. However, this is not a new phenomenon for al-Qaeda.

Expert Opinions Matter Most - Galrahn, Information Dissemination

Captain Wiley of the USNS Mercy (T-AH 19) weighs in on resources for medical diplomacy. As captain of both humanitarian deployments of the USNS Mercy (T-AH 19) to the Pacific, including Pacific Partnership 2006 and the current Pacific Partnership 2008 by which we follow through Captain Wiley's blog here, he strikes us as without question as having the most qualified, most important opinion on how to resource for medical diplomacy missions. Much thanks to Lee Whaler and Captain Bob Wiley for such interesting fodder for discussion. With Captain Wiley's permission, we share these insightful comments, which he fully represents as his own. These thoughts leave us with much to consider.

The Supreme Court Promotes Law of the Jungle - Westhawk, Westhawk

The Bush administration has begun planning for life after Boumediene, the notorious ruling on Guantanamo detainee rights issued by the US Supreme Court three weeks ago. Although the Bush administration lost in court, it is the US Supreme Court and the US legal system in general that will be the greatest losers in the long run. The American public will have a hard time understanding why some of the most dangerous men in the world are going to be let free over the next few years, as now seems inevitable. Ironically, the law given the greatest boost by the Supreme Court will be the law of the jungle.

CSI, Iraq and Afghanistan - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

Yesterday's Post featured a really interesting story about how many detainees captured abroad in the war on terrorism have a forensic trail that leads to criminal activity inside the United States. The implications of this program are many, but Frances Fragos Townsend, former White House special assistant for homeland security, really nailed it when she told The Post that these matches identified "a potential vulnerability" to national security that the government had not fully appreciated. They also represent a potential opportunity -- but only if exploited correctly.

The Ties That Bind - Douglas Farah, Counterterrorism

The Washington Post's recent article on the surprises that the biometric database is turning in among those arrested abroad shows in part the ties that bind terrorist and criminal groups. It also shows the power of sharing data across institutional lines, as well as the inherent issues related to individual privacy that will have to be navigated as the we move forward.

FISA Surprise - Andrew Cochran, Counterterrorism

The US House passed the "FISA Amendments Act of 2008" right before the July 4 recess, which provided a mechanism for immunizing telecommunications companies from possible lawsuits resulting from cooperation provided for the NSA wireless surveillance program after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. At the time, it was characterized as a victory for the telecoms, and the White House supported it. But they must not have read the bill until today. The House added another provision to the bill which guarantees that immunity wouldn't become effective for months after the President signs the bill, and the White House is only now demanding that the Senate remove that provision.

COMPLEX OPERATIONS

Doctrine of Eternal Recurrence - Will Hartley, Insurgency Research Group

RAND has released the latest in a series of occasional papers addressing counterinsurgency theory and practice. Entitled Doctrine of Eternal Recurrence — The U.S. Military and Counterinsurgency Doctrine, 1960-1970 and 2003-2006, and written by Austin Long, the paper challenges the notion that the development of improved COIN doctrine necessarily translates into an equivalent improvement in the conduct of COIN operations on the ground. Long compares the conduct of contemporary COIN operations by US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq following the release of FM 3-24 with the conduct of COIN operations in Vietnam, and argues that in both cases organisational inertia has inhibited the force adaptation required to actually implement new doctrine on the ground.

INFORMATION OPERATIONS

Winning the 'War of Ideas' - David Wood, Military Watch

That's the key to what the Bush administration calls the "global war on terror." You can't kill or capture every insurgent, the theory goes; you merely have to win over the vast undecideds in the middle, and the insurgency will wither away. Maybe. A new study from the US Army War College suggests this might not be so easy. Antulio Echevarria, a warrior-scholar at the Strategic Studies Institute, concludes that wars of ideas are usually inconclusive; they go on and on, and often, eventually end with the physical destruction or retirement of one side.

Dissonance in Information Operations - Marc Tyrrell, In Harmonium

There is a something to be learned from looking at what a person says they are going to do and then looking at their actions. It is, in fact, one of the main reasons why all quantitative work, such as survey research, should be checked against qualitative work such as observational research (”shop-alongs” or “micro-ethnographies” in market research terms). In fact, the reason for doing this is, at least structurally, quite simple: both speech and action are forms of communications. In a previous post, I came up with the following definition of Information operations.

Support Freedom of Speech - Omar, Iraq the Model

Our friends and readers remember the Arabic blogging tool that we helped develop nearly 4 years ago. It was a pioneer project in making blogging easy for Arabic speakers in the Middle East. It’s been a story of exceptional success in dangerous times. Only with the strong will of good Iraqis and Americans the idea became solid reality. The project did not wait for or receive any support from the Iraqi or US government; the success was only the fruit of cooperation between enthusiastic supporters of free speech in both countries. It was a long journey to help introduce the idea of dialogue over the internet and activism to the Iraqi people. It’s been a real challenge on a land that witnesses the most brutal attacks of terrorism. However this did not discourage the volunteers who continued to move across the country offering training and promoting the culture of blogging and free speech. That journey reached even some of the most remote villages and most volatile zones. During that we lost two dear colleagues on what was known back then as the ‘death road’. The project was built with generous donations and enthusiastic volunteer work, and above all blood. Today we’re proud that the blogging network has more than 2,300 users using the tool to express themselves and interact with one another. The community received more than 20 million readers since its inception three years ago and the average hits today reaches as many as 25,000 and continues to rise. The network of users expanded beyond Iraq to the rest of the Middle East where hundreds of blogger are now using the network, adding new dimensions to it by connecting all these bloggers, activists and NGOs.

Jesse Helms, RIP, and USIA - Matt Armstrong, MountainRunner

Abolishing the USIA was not a one-man show. There was more to it than a choice by President Clinton, even if it was his desk where the buck ultimately stopped. There was the USAID director who had the guts to fight for his agency and the USIA director who did not. There was also the co-star in the form of a Secretary of State who may have later acknowledged her complicity was her biggest mistake. It should be noted that Senator Helms succeeded where the equally, if not more, legendary Senator Fulbright (D-AR, and as I just learned a fraternity brother of this blogger) failed. The 1972 Amendment to Smith-Mundt was, in fact, the best Senator Fulbright could do in his attempt to abolish USIA. According to Nick Cull, he demanded that Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty “should be given an opportunity to take their rightful place in the graveyard of Cold War relics.” But they escaped with the creation of the Board for International Broadcasting, the predecessor to the Broadcasting Board of Governors. According to contemporary news accounts, votes he brought to the floor as Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee were losing and losing not on merit but on personality. He had lost support, an especially bad situation for a Chairman. The New York Times would remark on the “eclipse of Senator Fulbright and the weakening of the Foreign Relations Committee” and wonder if the Senator would support the pending Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty when he couldn’t count on the support of the Administration or of his own committee. Soon after he remarked that he would not even bring something up for a vote because he knew it wouldn’t pass.

IRAQ

Benchmarks, Anyone? - Max Boot, Contentions

Remember when the “benchmarks” for Iraq were all the rage in Congress? They were constantly being cited last year by opponents of the war effort when Iraq was failing to meet them. Funny how, now that Iraq has met 15 of 18 benchmarks, we don’t hear loud huzzahs from Democrats. In fact we don’t hear anything about the benchmarks, period.

Between the Strategic and the Heroic - Pat Porter, Kings of War

Either this sort of thing gives you a lump in your throat, or it doesn’t. Two thoughts come to mind when watching this film (or for me, anyway). First, that we are moved by brave and unyielding soldier-politicians of the likes of Churchill, Roosevelt or even the white-haired veteran, John McCain. A little defiance against the enemies of liberal society, against those who delight in the weakening of America and all it stands for, is uplifting. Like Lincoln, McCain has staked his election campaign on a firm belief in victory, a word deeply unfashionable in the post-modern discourse of war studies. To his credit, McCain also believes in preserving something to defend, committing to shutting down the disgrace of Guantanamo. The spirit of his advertisement is not only one of granite belief and determination. It is that heroism sometimes entails persistence against ridiculous odds. In recommitting Americans morally to a cause that may be unlikely to succeed, heroism cuts against calculated common sense. If Winston Churchill said ‘Never give in, never give in…except to convictions of honour or good sense’, the part of our instincts that loves heroism pays little heed to Churchill’s ‘good sense’ caveat.

Military Review: "Partnering with the Iraqi Media" - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

The current issue of Military Review (via SWJ) contains a quite fascinating article written by Lt Col Frank DeCarvalho, Major Spring Kivett, and Captain Matthew Lindsey entitled "Reaching Out: Partnering with Iraq Media." The article enthusiastically details the efforts of Task Force Marne to use Iraqi media as a more credible source for pro-coalition stories. An Iraqi face on the coalition's stories, they argue, offers a more effective way of influencing Iraqi attitudes than traditional PSYOP techniques: "using native news reporters will increase chances of acceptance by the Iraqi population by relaying credible stories of progress that can resonate favorably through communities." It's worth a look.

SOFA Cushions - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama

Talks over the SOFA, and the strategic framework agreement (SFA) that will be bundled along with it, remain contentious. Lets be clear on one thing: the current Iraqi leadership wants some kind of long-term partnership with the United States, including assurances that we will protect them against foreign invasion, continue to conduct counterterrorism operations, continue to train and support the ISF, continue to help them re-negotiate their debt obligations, etc. All of this is in the November 2007 "Declaration of Principles," signed by Bush and Maliki, which the SFA is meant to codify.

Getting Realistic About Iraq - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, is no shrinking violet. Like his boss, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, he has worked hard over the past several months to demonstrate that he takes an independent, fact-based approach to the problems of the day, whether the issue is Iraq force levels or dissent within the force. Yesterday, Mullen continued that tradition with comments at a Pentagon press conference spelling out the tradeoffs between keeping troops in Iraq and deploying them to Afghanistan. Here's what he had to say.

Reconciling or Closing Ranks - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

Quickly, on the reported IAF return to Maliki's government: for the last few months, every time stories about this happening circulated I tagged them with the same comment: I expect this to happen, because the Islamic Party and what's left of the IAF desperately wants to have some government power and patronage to help it with the upcoming provincial elections, and are happy to use the moves against the Sadrists as political cover for doing what they desperately longed to do.

The Battle for Mosul - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

Marie Colvin reported in the Times of London this weekend about the intense fighting in Mosul between an amalgam of US and Iraqi forces and al-Qaeda-in-Mesopotamia fighters. The assault appears to be unfolding similarly to other initiatives: cordon of the city, followed by the establishment of movement control measures like checkpoints, followed by raids on insurgent strongholds and targeted individuals.

Democracy in Iraq - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama

July 4th is a celebration of our independence, so what better day to review the state of democracy in Iraq. As readers know, provincial elections are supposed to be held this fall. In this context, a few developments are worth noting.

Arabs Stepping up in Iraq... - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

For weeks, Arab editorialists have been arguing for - or, if you like, signaling - the need for an Arab opening towards Iraq. The seeds of this could be seen in the Neighbors Conference held in Kuwait at the end of April, where appeals were made if little actual progress. (*) Since a June 12 article in al-Sharq al-Awsat by former Jordanian Information Minister Salleh al-Qullab calling for an Arab "third way" between Iranian and American visions for Iraq, I've been noticing a dramatic increase in such articles in the Gulf press, usually asking some variation, as in in the UAE's al-Khaleej, of the theme "where is the Arab role in shaping the future of Iraq?" Many of these have been published in al-Sharq al-Awsat, a paper which is often considered to be an outlet for the views of the Saudi leadership.

Iraqi Forces Pursue Mahdi Army - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

Clashes broke out in the Sadr City district in northeastern Baghdad after Iraqi forces detained a senior Sadrist leader, an Iraqi news outlet reported. Iraqi soldiers and police cordoned several neighborhoods in the Mahdi Army stronghold to contain the fighting that occurred after security forces detained Abbas Abdul Aal, who is a "senior Sadrist leader," Voices of Iraq reported. Aal's nephew was also detailed. "Security forces closed all of the city's outlets and prevented the movement of traffic and pedestrians," an eyewitness told the Iraqi newspaper.

Important ROE Case - Bruce Kessler, Democracy Project

ROE, that’s rules of engagement. For those first thinking I was referring to Roe vs Wade, you’re forgiven, as both do involve life and death issues. There’s currently in progress an Article 32 hearing at Camp Pendleton of charges against a Marine for violating rules of engagement in killing two and wounding two others in Iraq. The outcome of this fact-finding hearing, which may or not recommend further action, otherwise may be important to the future training, competency, morale, and very lives of our troops whom we place in danger, and thus to the success of their missions. ROE are the military’s guidance to its members on what actions they may take during hostile activities. At the tactical level, they’re often secret so as not to provide evasive guidance to the enemy. Tactical ROE are usually specific to each branch of service, and to units within depending on their mission, and are constantly being updated.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

Swatting Flies... and Failing to Pay for It - Kip, Abu Muqawama

PLEASE SEE UPDATE FROM THE GOOD USMC PAO ON THE GROUND - David Zucchino is the second American reporter (he was scooped several weeks ago by Mike Phillips in the Wall Street Journal) to write recently on attempts by the US Marine Corps to pay Afghans for damage caused during the clearing of Garmser District, Helmand Province in the South of Afghanistan. The subtext of both his and the Phillips' article is that while USMC has made great progress in its efforts to clear the Taliban out of Garmser, a shot aimed at disrupting an area that has essentially remained outside of government control since 2001, much remains to be done.

Escalation in Afghanistan - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

Both the size of the ISAF and the insurgency are growing in Afghanistan, but the the rates of growth are disparate. There have been more US and NATO troops killed in Afghanistan in June than in Iraq for the second straight month. But more to the point, many of the NATO troops aren’t allowed in kinetic engagements, so deploying more German troops doesn’t help if their mission is unnecessary.

US Forces Kill 20 Taliban - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

US forces killed 20 Taliban fighters during airstrikes in Nangarhar province today in the latest in a series of attacks along the Pakistani border. The US military targeted “a large group of militants” with “precision airstrikes” in the mountains of the Deh Bala district in Nangarhar, a press release from Combined Joint Task Force – 101 reported. Intelligence report indicated the Taliban were operating in the area. Geo TV reported 20 Taliban were killed in the attack. Nangarhar is home to Tora Bora, the location of the last major battle of US and Afghan allies aginst the Taliban and al Qaeda in the winter of 2002. Osama bin Laden and numerous senior al Qaeda leaders slipped the cordon and escaped into Pakistan.

Suicide Attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul - Animesh Roul, Counterterrorism

The death toll in the suicide bombing outside the Indian embassy in Kabul on Monday (July 07) morning reached nearly 40 and counting, with more than 140 others, mostly civilians sustained injuries. The incident took place when an explosive laden car rammed into the vehicles parked outside the Embassy in the morning as many people were waiting to collect their visas. The death of India's defense attaché Brigadier R. Mehta and political and information counselor V. Venkateswara Rao were confirmed so far. The other two Indians killed in the attack were identified as security force personnel belonging to IndoTibetan border police.

41 Killed in Kabul Suicide Strike - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

Kabul was rocked with a major attack on Monday. A suicide car bomber hit the outside wall of the Indian embassy in a crowded neighborhood in Kabul on Monday, killing 41 people and wounding more than 140. The attack is the largest in Kabul since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. The massive explosion occurred at 8:35 AM, during the morning rush hour when the streets were packed. The Afghan Interior Ministry is located just down the street from the Indian Embassy. Scores of wounded sprawled throughout the streets in the wake of the devastating bombing. "We are walking on rubble," a senior embassy official told DNA India. "The embassy has been blown up badly, the outer structures," he said on condition of anonymity.

Modeling Afghan Power Structures - Christian Bleuer, CTLab

You know what a qawm is, right? It’s an Afghan solidarity/patronage network and it’s a pretty important aspect of Afghan society. It’s a commonly enough analyzed concept. You can find a qawm bibliography at this end of Afghanistanica’s discussion of qawm. But what I’ll deal with today is Armando Geller and Scott Moss’s computational model for qawm relations.

Threat to Peshawar Wakes up Pakistan’s Generals - Westhawk, Westhawk

Officers in Pakistan’s Frontier Corps made a small display to reporters after their counterattack against militants who earlier this week seemed to threaten Peshawar. Frontier Corps soldiers showed reporters ten blindfolded militiamen, along with captured small arms and ammunition. This would seem to be a meager outcome from the multi-day operation by Pakistani security forces. Mangal Bagh’s militia was accused last week of banditry and kidnapping inside Peshawar and nearby towns. Mr. Bagh has managed to withdraw his forces intact. He even managed a television interview during which he denied seeking to capture Peshawar.

IRAN

Iran and Asymmetric Warfare - John Robb, Global Guerrillas

There is still a significant possibility of a US/Israeli air attack on Iran during the closing months of this year. A multitude of triggers could set it off. Here's some thinking you might find useful if it does occur. Any attack by the US/Israel on Iran will be ostensibly aimed at suppressing the Iranian nuclear program. However, it will quickly evolve into something much larger, an airpower-based EBO (effects based operation). The objective of this EBO will regime change (see the brief: "Collapsing Iran", April 2006, for more details on this) without a ground invasion. It is assumed that by completely disrupting (turning off) the entire country's critical infrastructures (from power to communications to transportation) and isolating the country's leadership (in their bunkers), the country will quickly fragment in hundreds of competing factions.

Hersh’s Fevered Iran Fantasies - Max Boot, Contentions

Reading a Seymour Hersh article is a bit like panning for gold: You have to dig through a lot of dirt to find any nuggets of possible value. Relying almost exclusively on vaguely described anonymous sources, he makes sweeping claims about top-secret operations that can only be known to a small number of people inside the government with access to the relevant “sensitive compartmented information” and “special access programs,” and they aren’t allowed to comment one way or the other. And his “reporting” is always colored by a sixties-leftist, anti-American, conspiratorial worldview. To get my full read on Hersh’s latest red alert–this time about supposed U.S. plans to go to war with Iran–click here.

AMERICAS

Boldness be My Friend - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club

Fausta has video of the FARC rescue mission. Those who can understand Spanish will find it especially interesting, but Fausta provides the translation for those who can’t. One of the most chilling sights is the shot of the FARC security cordon around the Trojan Horse helicopter as the hostages were boarding and the Colombian Army was carrying out its impersonation.

FARC Loses its Crown Jewels - Westhawk, Westhawk

Today, Colombia’s army rescued 15 hostages held for years by FARC. The rescued included Ms. Ingrid Betancourt, held since 2002; three American contractors held since 2003; and Colombian soldiers and police officers held for political or financial ransom. With this blow, FARC has now lost its crown jewels, its most valuable leverage against the Colombian government. These particular hostages were also FARC’s best assets in its dealing with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and with governments in Europe.

EUROPE

Bullying Only Takes Russia So Far - Joshua Keating, Passport

While President Bush is spending his birthday week with "smart guy" Dmitry Medvedev, his secretary of state is embarking on you might call a tour of the front lines of Western-Russia tension. Tomorrow, Secretary Rice travels to Prague to formally sign an agreement on the construction of a US missile-defense radar system in the Czech Republic. Later in the week, she heads to Georgia, an American ally locked in a standoff with Russia over its increasingly violent breakaway provinces. Russia strongly opposes the building of the missile-defense shield and the Foreign Ministry has warned that "appropriate steps" will be taken to punish the Czechs. Since the Russians' amped-up support for the Georgian provinces began as retaliation for Western recognition of Kosovo, it's safe to assume they don't make such threats idly. But compared with historically unstable Geogia, there's not much Russia could do to push around the Czech Republic, a country where Moscow hasn't held much sway since the Velvet Revolution of 1989.

Kosovar Independence in the General Assembly - Douglas Muir, A Fistful of Euros

Following up to my earlier post, some discussion of the international reaction to Kosovar independence. At the moment, 43 countries have recognized Kosovo’s independence. (I’m defining “country” here as “member of the UN General Assembly. Sorry, Taiwan.) Since the UNGA has 192 members, that means that more than three quarters of the world’s countries have not recognized Kosovo. Is that good or bad for the Kosovars? Well… it depends.

MIDDLE EAST

Intermezzo - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club

The difficulty of the process was underscored by the long and arduous fight against the biggest proxy army of all: Hezbollah. The Small Wars Journal looks how both sides of the decades-long struggle were seeking a truce in the form of the Syria-Israeli peace talks now under way. Both sides might have had enough; at least for the present. David J. Haimsky writes in Small Wars Journal that while Syria has failed to regain the territory in 1967 despite decades of support for Hezbollah, Israel had been unable to land a knockout blow against it. This inconclusive struggle might drive both combatants to consider calling a time out. But while the main effect of a peace agreement between Israel and Syria would be to reduce Syrian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon it would also have the side-benefit of further draining away logistics for al-Qaeda in Iraq. Because there was always the danger the al-Qaeda snake would regenerate once US forces drew down, diplomats were anxious to salt the stumps of its connections with Syria now.

COIN Inside the Wire - Will Hartley, Insurgency Research Group

Journalist Shiraz Maher has an interesting article in today’s Sunday Times looking at Saudi efforts to rehabilitate captured Al-Qaeda Organisation in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants. Although the Saudi programme’s emphasis on rehabilitating and releasing captured terrorists back into society makes it controversial in some quarters, there is increasing appreciation among COIN practitioners of the importance of ensuring detainee operations are consistent with the wider strategic goal of winning the war of ideas and securing the support of the population - a concept now often referred to as ‘COIN inside the wire’.

SOUTH ASIA

Suicide Blast Marks Siege Anniversary - Animesh Roul, Counterterrorism

A powerful suicide explosion near Melody Square in Islamabad has left nearly 20 people, including 10 security force personnel, dead and more than 40 people critically injured. The Sunday evening (July 06, 2008) blast occurred in front of Aabpara police station. The blast coincided with the first anniversary of deadly Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) raid. Earlier in the day hundreds of people, mostly supporters of Islamic radicals comprising clerics and students, descended to the streets of Islamabad to mark the anniversary. Needless to say, the weeklong raid last year marked the resurgence of Islamic violence and wave of suicide bombings across Pakistan.

After Islamabad, its Karachi Now! - Animesh Roul, Counterterrorism

After Sunday’s suicide blast in the capital Islamabad, now its Karachi’s turn to face terrorists' wrath. Monday evening, the port city of Karachi was rocked by a series of 8 low intensity blasts, which have killed at least two , while injuring more than 50 odd people. Soon after, panic stricken people stoned and vandalized many shops and cars. Rioting broke out in most part of the city following these blasts.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Army Blogger Shut Down, Promoted - Noah Shachtman, Danger Room

Less than two weeks ago, "LT [Lieutenant] G," an outspoken Army blogger in Iraq, was ordered to stop posting to his site, after he openly criticized his bosses on-line. Now, the guy has been promoted -- and decorated for his actions in combat. "LT G is no longer a lieutenant. On July 1, he was promoted to the rank of captain," writes the blogger's fiancee, on his former blog. In what I understand was a hilariously awkward ceremony, the Army...