IRAQ

Iraq Playing US Politics for Best Deal - Robert Reid, Associated Press

The Iraqi prime minister's seeming endorsement of Barack Obama's troop withdrawal plan is part of Baghdad's strategy to play US politics for the best deal possible over America's military mission. The goal is not necessarily to push out the Americans quickly, but instead give Iraqis a major voice in how long US troops stay and what they will do while still there. It also is designed to refurbish the nationalist credentials of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who owes his political survival to the steadfast support of President Bush. Now, an increasingly confident Iraqi government seems to be undermining long-standing White House policies on Iraq. The flap began Saturday when Germany's Der Spiegel magazine released an interview quoting al-Maliki as saying US troops should leave Iraq "as soon as possible" and that Obama's proposed 16-month timeline to remove combat troops was "the right timeframe for a withdrawal."

Advisers Could Stay Long after Troops Leave - Charles Levinson, USA Today

Can Iraqi troops fight - and win - on their own? That question has become even more urgent after President Bush, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki all spoke in recent days about setting either vague or specific time frames for withdrawing US troops from Iraq. Recent evidence suggests that although the Iraqi military has made enormous progress, it is still dependent on small teams of American advisers who can rein in overly aggressive Iraqi commanders, call in US airstrikes and help coordinate basic supplies such as food, rifle-cleaning kits and even printer cartridges. The advisers could remain on the ground in Iraq long after most US combat troops have left. Col. John Nagl, who resigned last month as commander of the US Army's school for military advisers, says they are "the key to our exit strategy in Iraq."

Iraqi Panel Proposes Delay in Key Election - Associated Press

Iraq's election authority proposed Sunday to delay important provincial balloting in an apparent sign of frustration over a political impasse that has stalled preparations for voting planned for this fall. The provincial election plan - strongly backed by Washington - would shift more political powers to regions and is viewed by Sunni Arabs as path to gain more influence over decisions by the Shiite-led government. US officials see the voting as another key step in national reconciliation.

Iran-linked Attacks Subside in Iraq - Jim Michaels, USA Today

The number of deadly armor-piercing roadside bombs, which the US government has linked to Iran, has dropped by nearly 70% in the past three months, the US military says. The decline comes in the wake of Iraq-led offensives against Shiite militia strongholds. The United States is also taking diplomatic steps to blunt the threat Iran poses to the region. A top US diplomat will attend a meeting with Iranian officials this weekend to discuss Tehran's nuclear program, a rare high-level session between the two countries. US commanders are cautious in describing the decline in armor-piercing bombs in Iraq, saying there is no evidence Iran is backing off support for Shiite militants there.

We Have Won The War In Iraq - Michael Yon, New York Daily News opinion

'The war in Iraq is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won." When I wrote this on my Web site a few days ago, I set off a mini-firestorm. Perhaps because I have spent more time embedded with combat troops in Iraq than any journalist I know - and have interviewed countless Iraqis and members of the coalition military. But I stand by my words, just as I stood by my assertion of February 2005 that Iraq was in a state of civil war, and later understood that Al Qaeda was its proximate cause. Those statements went against the vested interests of both Bush supporters who didn't want to admit how bad the situation was in Iraq, and war critics, who didn't want to admit that much of it was Al Qaeda's fault.

The Future of Iraq - Kimberly Kagan, Weekly Standard opinion

I have made four trips to Iraq since May 2007. I have walked through markets in Baghdad escorted by US soldiers, visited the outposts where they live with their Iraqi army partners, talked with school children playing soccer in the street, seen newly renovated housing in war-torn neighborhoods, and eaten in the homes of local and tribal leaders who have helped our soldiers fight Al Qaeda in Iraq. This morning, a weekday in July 2008, I am doing something I have never done before: visiting the headquarters of a small Iraqi political party to learn about its campaign for the upcoming provincial and national elections.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

Al-Qa'ida 'Changing Focus to Pakistan' - Bruce Loudon, The Australian

Intelligence assessments showing al-Qa'ida was changing its focus from Iraq to Pakistan and Afghanistan were highlighted yesterday by US commander David Petraeus as leaders in Islamabad called a crisis meeting over the jihadi militancy sweeping the country. General Petraeus said that after intense US assaults in Iraq, al-Qa'ida was looking to shift focus to its original home base in Afghanistan, where American casualties are running higher than in Iraq. "We do think that there is some assessment ongoing as to the continued viability of al-Qa'ida's fight in Iraq," General Petraeus said. General Petraeus is the planner behind the US "surge" tactics in Iraq and is soon to take over a new command that includes responsibility for US military operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

'Pristine Jihad' Draws in Outsiders - Tom Coghlan, The Times

Afghanistan is replacing Iraq as the destination of choice for international jihadists, Western intelligence agencies claim. Analysts have monitored a surge in online recruitment of “lions of Islam” to join the war in Afghanistan through jihadist websites, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Chechnya and Turkey, in the past year. That is now being matched by evidence of an increase in foreign fighters entering Afghanistan, mostly from training bases established in the lawless Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) of Pakistan, where Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding. One Kabul-based Western diplomat, who did not want to be named, said: “There is a change with an increase in attacks in the east [along the Pakistan border] and more chatter of foreign voices is being detected.”

Afghan Violence Rising - Curry and Smith, Globe and Mail

Canada's Chief of the Defence Staff has acknowledged that the situation in Afghanistan is getting worse and more troops are required in the face of mounting Taliban attacks aimed at derailing next year's Afghan election. General Walter Natynczyk faced criticism last week when he dismissed the growing violence in the Kandahar region as “insignificant” during a tour of the country, in spite of claims to the contrary by observers and other NATO countries. But he's now offering a far more sombre analysis, stepping back from his previously upbeat picture of security in the country.

More Civilian Deaths Reported in Afghan Strikes - Carlotta Gall, New York Times

United States and NATO missile strikes continued to exact a heavy toll over the weekend, with at least 13 Afghans killed in two episodes that Afghan officials said were mistakes. One NATO soldier was also killed in the eastern province of Khost. Although NATO did not give the nationality of the soldier, United States forces are deployed in Khost. Nine Afghan policemen were killed and five others were wounded in western Afghanistan when a joint convoy of Afghan and United States forces called in airstrikes on a group they thought were militants. A presidential spokesman, Homayun Hamidzada, said the strikes were a case of friendly fire. In the other strike, at least four people were killed when two mortars fired by the NATO-led force in Afghanistan went astray.

Afghan Police Killed in ‘Friendly Fire’ - Tom Coghlan, The Times

US troops and Afghan police accidentally fought a four-hour pitched battle against each other yesterday in the latest accident involving Western forces in Afghanistan. US Marine Special Forces operating with Afghan troops in Farah province, near the Iranian border, were involved in the nighttime firefight with local police, nine of whom were killed when the Americans called in air support.Younus Rasuli, deputy governor of the province, said the police had had no warning that US and Afghan forces were in their area.

Taleban's Weapon of Choice - Anthony Loyd, The Times

Captain Paul Martin is one of several Royal Irish veterans of the bitter 2006 fighting in Helmand who has returned to Sangin. During that first tour he was involved in 51 firefights in ten weeks before being badly wounded by a mortar. This time his men have had only six engagements in about three months but have found more than 30 IEDs. Some veterans of 2006 preferred the old style of war. Another Irishman in the patrol base, Sergeant Trevor Coult, said: “It was more intense but you never worried about radiocontrolled IEDs, suicide attack. Now we are running around after guys who carry one rifle and maybe a couple of magazines in the heat. Carrying 90lb with all our kit and ECM, hoping to catch them - it'll not happen, will it?”

Behind Afghanistan Lies Pakistan - Christian Science Monitor editorial

Like its towering mountains, Afghanistan looms as a serious security threat, with Taliban attacks on US and NATO forces there rising precipitously. But the road to improvement starts in Pakistan, and the route is as winding as the Khyber Pass highway that connects the two countries. Al Qaeda has regrouped in Pakistan's lawless tribal region on the border, reaching pre-9/11 strength. Taliban militants also find safe haven in this remote region and cross regularly into Afghanistan. This growing hornets' nest poses a risk not only to Afghanistan and NATO forces, but to the world as a whole. Islamist terrorists in the border area are hostile to the newly elected secular government in Pakistan. Remember that Pakistan has the world's second-largest Muslim population and is equipped with nuclear weapons. Thankfully, Washington is starting to pay more attention to this part of the world.

How to Save Afghanistan - Rory Stewart, Time opinion

Terrorism and insurgency are only part of what's going wrong in Afghanistan. In 2002, I walked safely along the length of the road between Herat and Obey in western Afghanistan. Recently aid workers were carjacked on that road, and it is now considered too dangerous for aid agencies, effectively closing the main access to the central regions of the country. In provinces close to Kabul, such as Wardak, Ghazni and Logar, which were easy to visit two years ago, foreigners are regularly attacked and girls' schools burned at will. Afghanistan produces 92% of the world's opium (used to make heroin) and 35% of its cannabis and has a flourishing trade in looted antiquities. In a vicious cycle, narcotics, corruption and the absence of law and order are rotting the heart of the government and crippling the economy. Despite massive Western investment, Afghanistan is close to being a failed state. What should we do about it? Many policymakers want to throw more money and troops at the problem. Both Barack Obama and John McCain say that as President, they would send additional combat brigades - from 7,000 to 15,000 troops - to tame the insurgency in Afghanistan. At a June conference in Paris, Western governments committed an additional $20 billion in aid, in the hope that this would finally bring success in counterinsurgency, counternarcotics, rule of law, governance and state-building - and eventually allow us to withdraw from Afghanistan with honor. But just because Afghanistan has problems that need to be solved does not mean that the West can solve them all. My experience suggests that those pushing for an expansion of our military presence there are wrong. We don't need bold new plans and billions more in aid. Instead, we need less investment - but a greater focus on what we know how to do.

IRAN

Iran's Nuclear Position 'Small Talk' - Mostaghim and Daragahi, Los Angeles Times

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today dismissed Iran's recent response to a proposed solution to Tehran's nuclear program as "small talk" meant to buy time and warned that sanctions would be forthcoming if Iran did not comply with international demands to halt or slow its production of enriched uranium. Rice, speaking to reporters in Ireland this morning, warned of further US, European and UN Security Council sanctions on Iran's energy and banking sectors if Iran did not agree to stop expanding its production of enriched uranium, which can be used to produce electricity or, if highly enriched, fissile material for a bomb.

Brown Gives Iran Two Weeks to Back Down - Elliot and Hider, The Times

Gordon Brown will today increase the pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear programme by condemning as “totally abhorrent” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s threats against Israel. Tehran faces a series of sanctions against its oil and gas industries unless it halts attempts to develop its atomic capability within two weeks, senior British diplomats said last night. Mr Brown is to use a speech to the Knesset in Jerusalem - the first by a British Prime Minister - to make his strongest attack so far on the Iranian regime while pledging an “unbreakable partnership” with Tel Aviv.

Opening Soon in Tehran - Boston Globe editorial

Nearly three decades have passed since the US embassy in Tehran was closed, after American diplomats were taken hostage in the early days of Iran's Islamic Revolution. During that time, Iranians have been deprived of US consular services, and US diplomats have lost direct contact with Iran and its people. But in an encouraging turn, the State Department plans to open an American interests section in Tehran. There are times when nuanced diplomatic gestures foretell major policy changes. The plan for an interests section - a step short of an embassy - should be only the first of many moves toward better relations with Iran.

Now Bush Is Appeasing Iran - Michael Rubin, Wall Street Journal opinion

On May 31, 2006, Condoleezza Rice drew a red line in front of Tehran's nuclear enrichment program. "The Iranian government's choices are clear," she said. "The negative choice is for the regime to maintain its current course. . . . If the regime does so, it will incur only great costs." She also offered an olive branch: "As soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities, the United States will come to the table with our EU-3 colleagues and meet with Iran's representatives." Two years later, Iranian officials have installed more than 3,000 centrifuges in a facility designed to hold 50,000. On July 9, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tested missiles which could reach Israel; the same day, Iranian Web sites carried President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's pledge to launch a satellite, an event that would demonstrate a mastery of intercontinental ballistic missile technology. Nevertheless, just 10 days later, Undersecretary of State William Burns joined envoys from France, Britain, Russia, China and Germany in talks with Saeed Jalili -- Iran's nuclear negotiator and an Ahmadinejad confidant -- about incentives to give to Tehran.

THE LONG WAR

Historic First Terror Trial Opens - Warren Richey, Christian Science Monitor

Osama bin Laden's former driver is scheduled to stand trial on Monday in the first war crimes tribunal at America's terrorist prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. The historic action comes nearly seven years after President Bush first moved to establish military commissions to try suspected Al Qaeda terrorists. The special military commission process was designed to offer a stripped-down version of justice to illegal enemy combatants who, by engaging in terrorism, were said to have forfeited any right to more robust legal protections.

Hambali to Face Gitmo Military Court - Paul Maley, The Australian

Alleged Bali bombings mastermind Hambali will face trial before a US military commission by the end of the year, with prosecutors saying the case against him is well advanced. As relatives of the 88 Australians killed in the 2002 Bali attacks await the execution in Indonesia of the three men who carried out the nightclub bombings, the chief prosecutor of the US military commissions, Colonel Larry Morris, said prosecutors were on track to charge Hambali this year. Colonel Morris declined to say exactly what charges Indonesian-born Hambali would face, but he told The Australian they would include ``substantive'' and conspiracy offences. "A substantive offence is a traditional common-law crime, such as murder, as well crimes that depict the collaboration of these individuals,'' he said. Hambali was arrested in Thailand in 2003. In 2006, it was announced he had been moved to Guantanamo Bay where he awaits trial along with 13 other so-called high-value detainees, including alleged 9/11 plotter Khalid Shaikh Mohammed.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

A Battle Over 'the Next War' - Barnes and Spiegel, Los Angeles Times

Air Force Maj. Gen. Charles J. Dunlap Jr. is not a fighter pilot, wing commander or war planner. But he is waging what many officers consider a crucial battle: ensuring that the U.S. military is ready for a major war. Dunlap, like many officers across the military, believes the armed forces must prepare for a large-scale war against technologically sophisticated, well-equipped adversaries, rather than long-term ground conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan. First, however, they face an adversary much closer to home -- Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates. For more than 30 years, the Pentagon establishment considered it an essential duty to prepare for a war of national survival. But under Gates, that focus has fallen from favor. In public speeches and private meetings, Gates has chastised many commanders as ignoring wars in Iraq and Afghanistan while they plan for speculative future conflicts.

UK MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

Forces Face Training Cuts - Robertson and Kennedy, The Times

The cost of fuelling Britain’s Armed Forces is due to rise by more than £500 million next year as a result of soaring oil prices, forcing military chiefs to consider broad cuts to air force and combat training. Ministry of Defence calculations of projected fuel bills, seen by The Times, show a dramatic increase in operating costs, with fuel for aircraft, naval and ground vehicles up by more than 20 per cent on last year. With the Armed Forces’ budget set to rise by just 3 per cent - and the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, warning government departments last week of no additional increases - defence and industry analysts said that major cuts to training programmes such as fighter plane exercises would be inevitable.

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Obama Arrives in Baghdad - Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post

US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama landed in Baghdad Monday morning, on a fact-finding mission to discuss Iraq strategy and US troop levels here, an issue that has become a cornerstone of debate in the presidential campaign. Obama was scheduled to meet senior US and Iraqi leaders here, including Gen. David H. Petraeus and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. A U.S. Embassy official provided few details of Obama's tour, citing security concerns. Obama arrived shortly before 8 a.m., said a US official, as part of a congressional delegation that included Sens. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), and Jack Reed (D-R.I.), both critics of the war.

Obama's Tour Renews Debate - Aunohita Mojumdar, Christian Science Monitor

Hopes and fears among Afghans clashed during the weekend visit of presumptive US Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama, who has vowed to send more US troops to Afghanistan if elected. Among those familiar here with Senator Obama, his trip revived debate about America's military presence in their country. The US has the most soldiers in Afghanistan and donates the most money. Obama has proposed adding two more brigades, or about 7,000 troops.

Obama Joins Karzai for 'Working Lunch' - Candace Rondeaux, Washington Post

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama met here Sunday with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, capping the end of a two-day tour of Afghanistan as casualties continued to mount from violence in the war-torn country. Obama joined Karzai for a "working lunch," marking the first meeting for the Afghan president and the presumptive Democratic nominee. Obama's colleagues in the congressional delegation visiting Afghanistan, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), were also at the lunch, said Humayun Hamidzada, Karzai's chief spokesman. Hamidzada said the nearly two-hour meeting, which was also attended by the heads of Afghanistan's ministries of defense, foreign affairs and Karzai's national security adviser, was "positive" and "friendly."

Obama Meets Afghan Leader - Carlotta Gall, New York Times

Senator Barack Obama met with President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan for nearly two hours on Sunday and “conveyed that he is committed to supporting Afghanistan and to continuing the war against terrorism with vigor,” an Afghan presidential spokesman said. The meeting, which continued over a traditional Afghan lunch of chicken, mutton and rice, was conducted in a “very friendly environment,” the spokesman, Homayun Hamidzada, said. Mr. Obama and the two other senators traveling with him - Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska; and Jack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island - reaffirmed the United States’ bipartisan support for Afghanistan. And Mr. Karzai asked that the senators pass on the “immense gratitude” of the Afghan people to their constituents and the American public, Mr. Hamidzada said at a news briefing after the lunch.

Maliki Backs Obama's Exit Plan - Geoff Elliott, The Australian

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki yesterday appeared to endorse Barack Obama's timetable for the withdrawal of US troops, siding with the Democrat presidential nominee on a key policy difference with Republican rival John McCain. The endorsement from the Iraqi leader came as Senator Obama was in Afghanistan to kick off a tour of the Middle East and Europe in a week that is freighted with importance for American politics. "US presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months," Mr Maliki told Germany's Der Spiegel magazine. "That, we think, would be the right time frame for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes." But Mr Maliki's spokesman in Baghdad last night tried to hose down the comments, saying the Prime Minister's comments were "not conveyed accurately" by Der Spiegel. Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said Mr Maliki did not endorse a specific timetable but instead discussed a "an Iraqi vision" of US troop withdrawals based on talks with Washington and "in the light of the continuing positive developments on the ground".

Obama Controversy over Iraqi 'Endorsement' - Tim Reid, The Times

Barack Obama was set to arrive in Baghdad last night on the third day of his high-profile world tour, amid controversial remarks by the Iraqi leader that appeared to endorse the Democratic presidential candidate over his Republican rival. On only his second visit to the country, Mr Obama will touch down hours after Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, was quoted as saying that he backed the senator's plan to bring home all US combat troops within 16 months. He implicitly criticised John McCain by saying that any effort to prolong the mission “would cause problems”. The Obama campaign immediately trumpeted the remarks as proof that his Iraq plan had the backing of the country's leadership. Mr al-Maliki's interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel came one day after he and President Bush agreed to a “general time horizon” for the withdrawal of US troops. It is the first time that Mr Bush has even hinted at the idea of a timetable and reflects growing White House confidence - as well as an increasing unhappiness in Baghdad over an open-ended US troop presence. Within hours, however, a spokesman for Mr al-Maliki rushed out a statement saying that his remarks about Mr Obama had been “misunderstood, mistranslated and not conveyed accurately”, and that they “should not be understood as support to any US presidential candidate”.

Comment Stings Maliki - Tavernese and Zeleny, New York Times

On the eve of Senator Barack Obama’s visit to Iraq, its prime minister tried to step back Sunday from comments in an interview in which he appeared to support Mr. Obama’s plan for troop withdrawal. The interview with the prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, was published Saturday in the online version of Der Spiegel, a German magazine. It was widely picked up by American newspapers because it appeared to give an unexpected boost to Mr. Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, who has called for an expedited withdrawal. Mr. Maliki's interview prompted immediate concern from the Bush administration, which called to seek clarification from Mr. Maliki’s office, American officials said.

A Good Reason to Withdraw - Daily Telegraph editorial

Whether or not he intended it, the Iraqi Prime Minister has given an immense boost to Barack Obama - and, by extension, to Gordon Brown. Both men say they will withdraw their forces from Iraq: Mr Obama within 16 months, Mr Brown by early next year. Both men, being of the Left, had felt sensitive to accusations of cutting and running. But the statement by their Iraqi ally, Nouri al-Maliki, that he favours an early evacuation, transforms the parameters of the debate.

Obama's Opportunity in the Middle East - Janessa Gans, CS Monitor opinion

Sen. Barack Obama is visiting with leaders in Europe and the Middle East this week to "deepen important relationships and exchange views with nations vital to the country's national security," said a spokeswoman. In short, Senator Obama will seek to repair friendships that have frayed in the past seven years. It won't be easy, especially in the Middle East, where a thick coat of skepticism and cynicism has dulled the reflection of American aspirations. I saw this firsthand in May, when President Bush spoke to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. He preached the virtues of democratic reform to an audience of English-speaking, pro-Western businesses; NGOs; and political leaders. The effect? More grating than gratitude. If Obama seriously aspires to the title Leader of the Free World, he must speak with a different tone. But more important, perhaps, he must listen for a different answer.

In Iraq, Under the Spotlight - Robert Novak, Washington Post opinion

I asked one of the Republican Party's smartest, most candid heavy hitters last week whether John McCain really has a chance to defeat Barack Obama in this season of Republican discontent. "No, if the campaign is about McCain," he replied. "Yes, if it's about Obama." That underlines the importance of Obama's visit to Iraq, beginning weeks of scrutiny for the Democratic presidential candidate under a GOP spotlight. Four years ago nearly to the day, I asked the same question of the same Republican leader about George W. Bush and John Kerry, and he gave the same answer. He proved prophetic in that Bush's campaign made Kerry the issue, and the 2004 Democratic presidential candidate flunked the test.

Change For Iraq and Barack Obama - Deborah Haynes, The Times opinion

There were four visiting Congressmen at the US Embassy in Baghdad, but the one standing closest to me also had a friendly smile. “So, which one are you?” I asked. “I’m Barack - pleased to meet you,” Mr Obama said. That was on January 7, 2006, when the US senator first visited Iraq on a fact-finding mission that attracted zero fanfare. Two and a half years on, the contrast is staggering, with the world’s media fixated on his return. Details of Mr Obama’s arrival, where he will go and whom he will meet are top secret. Access to him is also tightly controlled, making the chances of a second handshake slim. Everything was so much easier the first time around.

The Democrats' Baghdad Two-Step - Peter Hoekstra, Washington Post opinion

It's hard not to have heard about the positive developments in Iraq lately. On Friday, the White House announced that President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had reached agreement on a "time horizon" for the withdrawal of US combat troops. Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last Wednesday that "security is unquestionably and remarkably better." Iraqi security forces recently took responsibility for a 10th province and expect to assume responsibility for all 18 of the country's provinces by year-end. There have been virtually no sectarian killings in 10 weeks. The Iraqi government has made important progress in political reconciliation. Regional neighbors are reestablishing embassies in Baghdad, and some of Iraq's creditors have begun to forgive the enormous debts incurred by Saddam Hussein's regime. How have Democrats reacted to these developments? Have they reveled in the news that US casualties have plummeted? Have they praised the achievements for which our troops have fought so hard? Have they congratulated the Iraqi government for progress in political reconciliation? Not exactly.

No Substitute for Victory - William Kristol, New York Times opinonon

We’re an awfully long way from the European wars of the 19th century, and from the National Socialist regime of the 20th. Nonetheless, as the newsmagazine Der Spiegel reported Sunday in its online edition, some German politicians are concerned about the location of Obama’s speech. The deputy leader of the Free Democrats worries “whether Barack Obama was advised correctly in his choice of the Siegessäule as the site to hold a speech on his vision for a more cooperative world.” One Christian Democrat allows that speaking in front of a monument to a victory over neighbors who are today friends and allies “is a problematic symbol.” I share every civilized person’s disdain for Prussian militarism and loathing for National Socialism. But I’m choosing to take the location of Obama’s speech as a hopeful sign. I’m hoping it means that Obama in Berlin will go beyond the anodyne message his campaign advertised Sunday - a discussion of the “historic US-German partnership” and strengthening trans-Atlantic relations. I’m wondering if Obama chose the Victory Column as his speech venue because he intends to make the case for... victory.

Confessions of an anti-Iraq War Democrat - Lani Davis, Washington Times opinion

Maybe another democracy, however imperfect, other than Israel in the Middle East could lead to more moderation, possibly other democracies? Democracies that could serve as bulwarks against al Qaeda-type of terrorist states? Then in 2005-06 came the increased violence from the Sunni insurgents against American kids, then the sectarian civil war between Sunnis and Shi'ites, with young Americans caught in the crossfire. My certainty in opposing the war and supporting a deadline for getting out re-emerged. And then in early 2007 came the surge, which so many of us in the antiwar left of the Democratic Party predicted would be a failure, throwing good men and women and billions of dollars after futility. We were wrong. The surge did, in fact, lead to a reduction of violence, confirmed by media on the ground as well as our military leaders.

AFRICA

New Darfur Mediator Says Mission Not Impossible - Reuters

Darfur's new chief mediator Djibril Bassole made his first visit to Sudan on Sunday to begins the uphill task of reviving a stalled peace process. "This will be a difficult mission but it's not mission impossible," he told reporters after talks with Sudan's State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Karti. Bassole, the foreign minister of Burkino Faso, faces numerous obstacles to securing peace. Not least an announcement on July 14 that the International Criminal Court wants an arrest warrant for Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur.

Indictment is Biggest Test for Sudanese Leader - Associated Press

President Omar al-Bashir's indictment on Darfur genocide charges presents the Sudanese leader with the most serious challenge to his 19-year rule, raising questions about his legitimacy that could weaken his grip on power. Al-Bashir is not new to threats to his Islamist regime, which has over the years built a reputation for dealing with disputes with a deft mix of brutality and political acumen. But analysts say the danger this time is personal as he faces an international bid to remove him from power.

MDC on Verge of Talks with Mugabe - Sebastien Berger, Daily Telegraph

Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change could sign an agreement on negotiations with Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party as early as Monday, sources said. Since Mr Mugabe was "re-elected" by a "landslide" in a one-candidate poll last month, after the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out in the face of a sustained campaign of violence against his supporters, there have been calls for the two sides to negotiate. But following the African Union's failure to condemn Mr Mugabe and the defeat of an attempt to impose sanctions on the regime in the UN Security Council, there is little to pressure Zanu-PF into making meaningful concessions. The indications are that the MDC believes it must be seen to show willingness and participate in the talks, but does not expect a settlement to be reached any time soon.

Zimbabwe's MDC Holds Out on Signing Memorandum - Reuters

Zimbabwe's main opposition party said it would not sign an accord paving the way for talks to end a political crisis until mediator South Africa addressed its concerns, but regional officials on Sunday appeared optimistic a breakthrough was possible. Pressure has been building for a negotiated settlement to the dispute over Zimbabwe's June 27 run-off election, which President Robert Mugabe won by a landslide after his challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai, pulled out citing violence and intimidation against his supporters.

Failing Zimbabwe - New York Times editorial

The brutality with which Robert Mugabe stole Zimbabwe’s elections last month embarrassed even his usual friends, allies and enablers. Unfortunately, it has not embarrassed them enough. Unless Russia, China and South Africa can be shamed into bringing real pressure against Mr. Mugabe and his henchmen, quickly, he will settle in for another term of disastrous misrule. Talks now likely to begin in South Africa this week between Mr. Mugabe’s party and that of Morgan Tsvangirai, the first-round election winner, may be the best way to prevent that, provided they, unlike past efforts, are not conducted on the dictator’s chosen terms.

Mugabe's Friends in the UN - Stanley Crouch, New York Daily News opinion

The most obvious and recent bad guy is Robert Mugabe, who has destroyed the economy of Zimbabwe, and had people beaten, kidnapped or murdered for no reason other than exercises in power and corruption. This has been so well documented that the United States and Great Britain recently tried to have sanctions brought against Mugabe at the United Nations. They wanted him to step down because he stole the recent election by having voters beaten and turned away from the polls or terrorized in other ways. Mugabe, who fittingly wears a Hitlerian mustache, denies this and defends himself by saying that Zimbabwe won its independence from England in 1987 and will not be colonized again! For all of his greatness, even Nelson Mandela has had no influence. He has called for Mugabe to step down. The rest of the African leaders seem to understand the pressures that their brother Mugabe is under and will not aid in making him out to be a literally bloody fool. So Zimbabwe, like Darfur, continues to bleed and suffer.

AMERICAS

Rally for Colombia's Kidnapped - Sibylla Brodzinsky, Christian Science Monitor

Hundreds of thousands of Colombians poured onto the streets across the country Sunday in massive rallies demanding freedom for hundreds of hostages. They were joined by demonstrators in 80 cities around the world in a show of solidarity. It was the loudest message to leftist rebels yet to stop kidnapping and lay down their arms. Wearing white T-shirts with slogans such as "Free them now" or simply the name of a hostage, marchers in Bogotá wound through the capital's main avenues, filling plazas and public parks. Television broadcasts here showed similar scenes in every major Colombian city. The marches were called following the July 2 rescue of 15 top-level hostages held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), including French-Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt, three American defense contractors, and 11 members of Colombia's security forces.

Colombians Take to Streets to Protest Kidnappings - Reuters

Hundreds of thousands of shouting, weeping and flag-waving Colombians marched on Sunday, calling for an end to the kidnappings that have plagued the country during its 44-year-old guerrilla war. Declaring that this year's Independence Day should be renamed "Freedom Day" for the 2,800 captives held in secret jungle camps, Colombians rallied throughout the country and voiced growing hope for an end to the conflict. They called on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and other illegal groups to stop taking hostages and enter peace talks. The march further pressured the rebels, who have suffered recent severe setbacks as a result of President Alvaro Uribe's US-backed military offensive.

Chavez Goes Weapons Shopping - Matthew Walter, Bloomberg

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow to shop for air defense systems, submarines and other weaponry as Latin America's arms race quickens amid signs that his regional influence is waning. Past Venezuelan arms purchases from Russia have strengthened ties with Moscow as its rivalry with the US intensifies over President George W. Bush's plans for an Eastern Europe missile defense system and other issues. Chavez, 53, also plans to visit Belarus, a Russian ally that the US considers a dictatorship.

Chavez Won't Shut Up - Reuters

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez said on Sunday he would like to give the king of Spain a hug when he visits Europe next week, but the outspoken leader, referring to a diplomatic spat last year, said he will not shut up. King Juan Carlos sparked a furor in November by shouting "Why don't you shut up?" at Chavez when he tried to interrupt a speech by Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero at the Ibero-American summit in Chile. Ties have improved since then and the Spanish government said last week that Chavez will meet the king on a visit to Spain next week.

Hunger Deepens as Haiti Food Aid Lags - Jonathan Katz, Associated Press

After soaring food prices led to deadly riots in April, the US and the UN promised millions of dollars in aid to poor families like Rivilade's, as well as help for farmers to break Haiti's dependence on imported food. But three months later, The Associated Press has learned that only a fraction of a key U.S. food pledge - less than 2 percent as of early July - has been distributed. Even those who oversee the food aid programs say they are stopgap measures while programs to create jobs and help Haitian farmers to increase production are more critical to ending the country's chronic hunger once and for all. But right now, aid workers say, the poorest families need immediate help, and little of the emergency food promised has reached them. Most of what has reached Haiti is stuck in port. Nearly all the rest is still inside warehouses - victim of high fuel prices, bad roads and a weak national government.

ASIA PACIFIC

Public Executions in Games Lead-up - Rowan Callick, The Australian

China has reverted to public executions on the eve of the Olympics as part of a massive security operation mounted to protect the Beijing Games from what Communist Party authorities describe as an urgent threat of violence and anti-government protest. The Washington Post reported at the weekend that three young men were shot shortly after dawn in the city of Yengishahar in Xinjiang - the mainly Muslim region of northwestern China. "The local government bused several thousand students and office workers into a public square and lined them up in front of a vocational school," the Post reported. "As the spectators watched, witnesses said, three prisoners were brought out. "Then an execution squad fired rifles at the three point-blank, killing them on the spot." The men were among 17 people convicted in nearby Kashgar of being members of the outlawed East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

US Envoy Cancels Trip to North Korea - Associated Press

The US envoy for North Korean human rights has canceled a trip there to inspect a jointly run North-South industrial complex, a South Korean official said Monday. Jay Lefkowitz had planned to visit the Kaesong complex, just north of the heavily fortified border dividing the peninsula, this week but he "voluntarily withdrew his plan," Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon told The Associated Press.

Thai-Cambodian Temple Standoff Continues - Seth Mydans, New York Times

Hundreds of Thai and Cambodian soldiers faced off at the ruins of an ancient Hindu temple here for a sixth straight day on Sunday, in a modern-day echo of the age-old clash of empires across Indochina. The temple, perched high on a bluff on a disputed patch of border, may be the prize. But the conflict has also created a secondary, more prosaic target: an embattled government in Bangkok, where the opposition is using the historical dispute and nationalist fervor as weapons. The fires of nationalism have spread in both nations over the past few weeks. Old grievances have flared, and troops and heavy weapons have been mobilized in the mists above the jungle. Over the weekend, truckloads of reinforcements from each country were seen heading toward the temple.

EUROPE

Serbia: Envoys May Return to EU States - Associated Press

Serbia's foreign minister announced plans Sunday to reinstate the country's ambassadors to EU countries that recognized Kosovo's independence. The aim is to improve relations between Serbia's new pro-Western government and the EU because Belgrade hopes to eventually join the 27-nation bloc, Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic said. Twenty EU countries, including Britain, France, Germany and Italy, recognized Kosovo's statehood after it declared independence from Serbia on Feb. 17. Serbia's government responded by recalling its envoys from those countries.

Five Blasts in Northern Spain, ETA Blamed - Reuters

Five small bombs exploded in northern Spain on Sunday, including four at popular seaside resorts in Cantabria which were claimed by the Basque separatist group ETA and sent thousands of people fleeing for cover. One woman was hurt by a flying stone and another treated for shock after the resort blasts which hit at mid-day. They followed an early morning explosion outside a Barclays bank branch in a town near Bilbao. The attacks marked the beginning of ETA's traditional summer bombing campaign, which targets holiday resorts as part of the group's four-decade struggle for an independent Basque state.

Europe Gets Real About America - Bronwen Maddox, Wall Street Journal opinion

Of course, it is hard to think that any American president for a long time will be hated in Europe in the way that Mr. Bush was loathed after the Iraq invasion. The antiwar and anti-Bush demonstration in London's Trafalgar Square in November 2003, which drew a crowd of hundreds of thousands, remains the largest to have gathered in London on a weekday; at the end, an effigy of Mr. Bush was pulled down from a plinth to huge cheers, echoing the toppling of Saddam Hussein's statue in Baghdad. But anti-American feeling was entrenched before Iraq. Even in Britain, where there is a deep and pervasive affection for the US (and far more anxious talk about the fraying of the "special relationship" between the two countries than you ever hear in the US), the grumbling undercurrents were getting louder through the 1990s. That mood -- far stronger in continental Europe -- drew new energy from the fall of the Soviet Union, which left the US as the sole superpower, and freed Europe from its dependence on American protection against the threat to the east. The sentiment was inspired, too, by the antiglobalization movement, which railed at American economic and cultural reach, even while enjoying its benefits. It was always amusing to see writers type out their disparagement of the American imperial giant on laptops running Microsoft software. But there is a sense now in Europe that this hostility is fading in a new appreciation of shared problems.

MIDDLE EAST

Choice Between Crops and Water - Andrew Martin, New York Times

Global food shortages have placed the Middle East and North Africa in a quandary, as they are forced to choose between growing more crops to feed an expanding population or preserving their already scant supply of water. For decades nations in this region have drained aquifers, sucked the salt from seawater and diverted the mighty Nile to make the deserts bloom. But those projects were so costly and used so much water that it remained far more practical to import food than to produce it. Today, some countries import 90 percent or more of their staples. Now, the worldwide food crisis is making many countries in this politically volatile region rethink that math. The population of the region has more than quadrupled since 1950, to 364 million, and is expected to reach nearly 600 million by 2050. By that time, the amount of fresh water available for each person, already scarce, will be cut in half, and declining resources could inflame political tensions further.

British PM Due for Talks in Israel - AFP

Britain's Gordon Brown prepared for talks during his first visit to Israel and the West Bank since becoming prime minister in a bid to bolster peace negotiations and economic development. Brown was to meet Israeli and Palestinian leaders in an attempt to revitalise the sluggish peace process between the two sides and push his "economic roadmap" to peace via giving Palestinians a financial stake in the territories' future. He has been invited to address the Israeli parliament on tomorrow - the first time a British premier will have spoken to the Knesset.

Israel Arrests Hamas Lawmaker in West Bank - Associated Press

Palestinian security officials say Israeli troops have arrested a Hamas lawmaker from the West Bank city of Nablus. Palestinian security says that lawmaker Mona Mansour and 19 other people with alleged ties to the Islamic group were arrested early Monday. Israeli troops have in recent weeks raided Nablus almost nightly in a crackdown against the violently anti-Israel Hamas.

Israel's Pain - Miami Herald editorial

The front-page headline in a major national newspaper said, 'Prisoners' Homecoming a Triumph for Hezbollah.'' If blackmailing Israel into releasing a child-murderer is what Hezbollah and its supporters consider a triumph, they have no one to blame but themselves when the world ignores or rejects the cause they claim to represent. Last week, Israel released five prisoners who were greeted as heroes upon their return to Beirut by the Iranian-backed Shiite terrorist group headed by Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. The principal figure among them was Samir Kuntar, who was imprisoned as a 16-year-old by the Israelis for leading a 1979 raid on the town of Nahariya. Before he was seized, Kuntar killed a civilian, Danny Haran, in front of his 4-year-old daughter, Einat. He then killed the little girl by smashing her head with a rifle butt. This is Hezbollah's great hero.

A Child Killer's Homecoming - Mna Charen, Washington Times opinion

What can you say about a people who welcome a child murderer as a hero? Most Americans are familiar with the brutal murder of wheelchair-bound Leon Klinghoffer on the cruise ship Achille Laura in 1985. Terrorists led by Abu Abbas (who was later given safe haven in Baghdad by Saddam Hussein) took the ship captive and threw Klinghoffer overboard. But few recall that the ship was seized to bargain for the release of, among others, Samir Kuntar from an Israeli prison. Kuntar had taken part in an earlier terror attack. In 1979, as a 16-year-old, he and four others had traveled to northern Israel by boat from Lebanon and come ashore in the seaside town of Nahariya. At midnight, Smadar Haran recalled, they burst into her apartment building. Peering out to see what the noise was, Smadar, mother of two, slammed shut her apartment door when she saw the terrorists - but too late. Kuntar had glimpsed her. Her husband, Danny, helped Smadar and their younger daughter, 2-year-old Yael, squeeze into a crawl space above the bedroom. Smadar wrote later, "I will never forget the joy and the hatred in their voices as they swaggered about hunting for us, firing their guns and throwing grenades." As police began to arrive, Kuntar and the others dragged Danny and 4-year-old Einat down to the beach. With Einat watching, Kuntar shot Danny in the head and then threw his body into the surf. Kuntar then repeatedly smashed Einat's head against a rock with his rifle butt, killing her, too. Yael did not survive the attack either. In an effort to keep the baby from crying and betraying their hiding place, Smadar had accidentally suffocated her.

SOUTH ASIA

Split Hits India's Vote on US Deal - Bruce Loudon, The Australian

A last-minute defection from its principal political ally shocked India's ruling coalition last night as it scrambled to nail down deals ahead of tomorrow's confidence vote over the nuclear deal with Washington. The secretary-general of the Socialist Party, Shahid Siddiqui, announced that he was quitting just hours after pledging his fullsupport for the UPA coalition, led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. He appeared at a media conference in New Delhi alongside the chief minister of the teeming north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati Kumari, to announce he was joining forces with her. Mr Siddiqui, a Muslim, said he had decided he could not support the deal he regarded as "anti-Muslim". Being a member of the upper house, his defection does not directly affect the numbers in the vote; but he has immense influence and there are fears that he may affect the voting intentions of other MPs.

A Civil Nuclear Power - M.R. Srinivasan, Wall Street Journal opinion

Of the world's 25,000 nuclear warheads, over 90% are in the United States and the former Soviet Union. The nuclear and missile activities of North Korea and Iran have created considerable apprehension in certain national capitals. Amid these genuine concerns, the proposed US-India nuclear deal has become a flashpoint of anxiety over proliferation. It needn't be. Criticism of the deal stems from an unwillingness to acknowledge that India poses no proliferation danger. It's important to be clear on this because the deal has lingered unresolved for too long already, and it's entering an especially delicate phase this week. Last Friday marked the third anniversary of the historic agreement between President Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. During the past 12 months, political parties and media in India have been debating the merits and pitfalls of the agreement. Mr. Singh is seeking a confidence vote to force the issue in the Parliament tomorrow, which he may win with a small majority.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

22 July - Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare (Public Event). Washington, DC. The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) is sponsoring a discussion on counterinsurgency on 22 July 2008, at the National Press Club (the Holeman Lounge), Washington, DC. Dr. John Nagl (Center for a New American Security), Dr. Daniel Marston (Australian National University), and Dr. Carter Malkasian (CNA) recently collaborated on Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare (Osprey, 2008), an edited book that examines 13 of the most important counterinsurgency campaigns of the past 100 years, including the current Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. Dr. David Kilcullen (U.S. State Department), the renowned counterinsurgency expert, will moderate the discussion and provide critical commentary. Lunch will be provided. Books will be available to purchase at a discounted rate. For more information, visit the first link above. RSVP at kattm@cna.org or 703.824.2436.

11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.

11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.