IRAQ
Brown Agrees to Cut British Troops - Haynes and Elliott, The Times
Gordon Brown, on a flying visit to Baghdad and Basra, said today he plans to reduce the remaining number of British troops in Iraq following a drop in attacks, but declined to set a timeframe for their departure. An Iraqi Government official said he hoped British forces would exit within a year. The British Prime Minister also agreed with Nouri al-Maliki, his Iraqi counterpart, to set up two teams, Iraqi and British, to study the technicalities of Britain's long-term relationship with Iraq. The two countries must agree on a legal framework for the continued presence of British troops in Iraq after a United Nations mandate expires on December 31.
Sunni Bloc Rejoins Iraqi Government - Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post
Iraq's largest Sunni political bloc rejoined the government Saturday after a nearly year-long boycott, a move that could help bridge the country's sectarian divide. The return of the Iraqi Accordance Front is widely seen as a victory for Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his efforts to portray himself as a nationalist leader uninfluenced by sectarian pressures. "It means the success of the political process and the success of the security situation and of reconciliation," said Adnan al-Dulaimi, leader of the bloc. The move came as British Prime Minister Gordon Brown made an unannounced visit to Baghdad for talks with Maliki and President Jalal Talabani. Brown declared afterward that Britain will reduce troop levels in Iraq but refused to set what he called an "artificial" timetable.
Iraq's Main Sunni Bloc Ends Boycott of Government - Voice of America
Iraq's main Sunni bloc has ended an almost year-long boycott of the country's Shi'ite-led government, a major step toward political reconciliation. The bloc, known as the Iraqi Accordance Front, agreed to return after parliament Saturday approved six Sunni officials to fill Cabinet openings created when a Shi'ite bloc left the government last year. The Sunni bloc also withdrew from the government last year after political disputes. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown says he wants to reduce the number of British troops in Iraq but refused to set an "artificial" timetable for their withdrawal. He spoke after arriving in Baghdad Saturday and holding talks with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Mr. Brown said the top goal of British forces in Iraq is to train Iraqi troops until they can control the territory they are responsible for and protect the Iraqi people. The British prime minister later left for the southern city of Basra. Britain's 4,000 troops in Iraq are based at an airport outside Basra.
Iraqi Sunnis End Boycott - Robertson and Tavernese, New York Times
Iraqi lawmakers cleared an important hurdle on Saturday by approving the appointment of six Sunni cabinet ministers after a yearlong boycott by the Sunni political bloc. Also on Saturday, Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain made an unannounced visit to Iraq. He held talks with senior Iraqi officials in Baghdad, including Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and President Jalal Talabani, then flew to the southern city of Basra to meet with British troops. The Sunni ministers approved by Parliament were all members of Tawafiq, the largest Sunni bloc, which had been boycotting Mr. Maliki’s government since last August. The return of Tawafiq is a significant political victory for Mr. Maliki, who has been trying to cement his reputation as a national leader who transcends sectarian lines.
Sunni Bloc Returns to Iraq Cabinet - Zavis and Salman, Los Angeles Times
Nearly a year after pulling out of Iraq's "unity government," the main Sunni Arab political bloc returned to the Shiite Muslim-led Cabinet on Saturday, in a breakthrough for efforts to mend relations between the country's largest religious communities. The decision represented a victory for Shiite Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, who earlier this year was facing calls for a vote of no confidence over his failure to build an effective governing coalition.
Al-Qaida May be Easing Effort in Iraq - Robert Burns, Associated Press
After intense US assaults, al-Qaida may be considering shifting focus to its original home base in Afghanistan, where American casualties are running higher than in Iraq, the top US commander in Iraq said Saturday. "We do think that there is some assessment ongoing as to the continued viability of al-Qaida's fight in Iraq," Gen. David Petraeus told The Associated Press in an interview at his office at the US Embassy. Whatever the result, Petraeus said no one should expect al-Qaida to give up entirely in Iraq.
Al-Qaeda 'May be Shifting Focus' - BBC News
Al-Qaeda may be considering shifting its focus from Iraq to Afghanistan, the top US commander in Iraq has said. In an interview with the Associated Press, Gen David Petraeus said there was evidence that foreign fighters were being diverted away from Iraq. But he said there was no suggestion the militant Islamist group would entirely abandon the fight in Iraq. Al-Qaeda evolved in Afghanistan and was closely-linked to the Taleban regime, toppled by US-led forces in 2001. As Iraq became the main theatre of conflict in the Middle East, al-Qaeda's leadership focused its efforts on fighting there.
Kidnappers Claim Hostage Suicide - Hala Jaber, The Times
The kidnappers of five British hostages seized in Baghdad last year have claimed in a video-taped statement that one of the men has killed himself. According to the statement, the hostage - named only as Jason - died on May 25, four days before the first anniversary of the abduction. The claim is made in a video passed to The Sunday Times in Baghdad last week.
Suicide Claim over UK Hostage - BBC News
One of the five British hostages held captive by militants in Iraq has killed himself, a video obtained by the Sunday Times has claimed. The tape, purporting to come from the group holding the men, alleges that a man known as Jason died on 25 May 2008. British officials say they are not able to corroborate the claim. Armed militants, disguised as police officers, kidnapped the four bodyguards and a computer expert at the Finance Ministry in Baghdad in May 2007.
The Future of Iraq - Kimberly Kagan, Weekly Standard opinion
I have made four trips to Iraq since May 2007. I have walked through markets in Baghdad escorted by US soldiers, visited the outposts where they live with their Iraqi army partners, talked with school children playing soccer in the street, seen newly renovated housing in war-torn neighborhoods, and eaten in the homes of local and tribal leaders who have helped our soldiers fight Al Qaeda in Iraq. This morning, a weekday in July 2008, I am doing something I have never done before: visiting the headquarters of a small Iraqi political party to learn about its campaign for the upcoming provincial and national elections.
Surge Protector - William Fallon, New York Times opinion
The prospect of a long-term security arrangement between the United States and Iraq has become a lightning rod for criticism. Yet such an agreement - which the White House believes could be completed this month now that the two countries have agreed to set a “general time horizon” for reducing the number of American troops in Iraq - would be in the best interests of the governments of both countries, and of the people who live in a region of the world that urgently needs stability. The United Nations Security Council resolution that authorizes coalition operations in Iraq expires at the end of this year. But the calendar is not the most important reason for the United States to enter into a long-term pact with Iraq. The opportunity presented by the improved situation on the ground begs to be exploited lest it disappear in the ever-shifting sands of Middle East strife.
Contrasting Goals in Iraq - Lawrence Korb, Boston Globe opinion
With Friday's announcement by the White House that the United States and Iraq have agreed to set a "general time horizon" for a US troop withdrawal, it is increasingly obvious that Iraqi political leaders are calling the shots when it comes to a future role for the United States, and that President Bush has not learned anything about Iraq in the last five years. Since November 2007, when Bush and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki agreed on a declaration of principles that would provide for the rules of engagement for US forces beginning on Jan. 1, 2009, when the United Nations mandate legitimizing the US occupation expires, Maliki has continued to try to force the Bush administration to accept their policies.
On the Horizon (Updated) - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama
As I’m sure most readers noticed, President Bush and Prime Minister Maliki agreed to include a “time horizon” for withdrawing US troops from Iraq as part of the bilateral strategic framework currently under negotiation... or did they?
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS
Pakistan Will Not Admit Foreign Troops - Zeeshan Haider, Reuters
Pakistan is committed to supporting the US-led global coalition fighting al Qaeda and the Taliban but will not allow allied foreign forces to operate on its territory, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said. "The international war against terrorism is our own war," he said in a televised address focused on the performance of his three-and-a-half month old civilian coalition government. "(But) we will not compromise on the sovereignty of Pakistan. No foreign power will be allowed to take action on Pakistani soil... any decision and any action within the frontiers of Pakistan will be taken by us with full responsibility," he told the nation.
Afghan Violence Kills 14 - Noor Khan, Associated Press
Afghan troops clashed with Taliban insurgents attacking a supply convoy for NATO troops, killing nine militants, officials said Saturday. Roadside bombs killed a NATO soldier in a separate convoy and four policemen. The violence came as Barack Obama arrived in Kabul with an official congressional delegation. It was the Democratic presidential contender's first visit to Afghanistan. The militants were killed after they attacked a supply convoy for NATO-led troops in Zabul province, said provincial police official Jalali Khan. There were no casualties among Afghan troops, he said. In neighboring Kandahar province, a blast struck a police patrol in Maywand district, killing four officers and wounding another, said Khan Mohammad, a police official.
No Easy Answer in Afghanistan - Atlanta Journal-Constitution editorial
The rising casualty rate among our forces in Afghanistan - in the last two months, US and allied fatalities in Afghanistan have exceeded the death toll in Iraq, with July likely to follow suit - has focused public and political attention on what has long been a secondary front. Last week alone, the Pentagon announced the deaths in Afghanistan of three metro Atlanta residents - Cpl. Jon Ayers of Snellville, Cpl. Matthew Phillips of Cumming and Master Sgt. Mitchell Young of Jonesboro. Ayers and Phillips were among nine US soldiers killed when their isolated outpost was attacked in a coordinated assault by Taliban fighters. That assault was repelled, but survivors of the attack have since been withdrawn and the outpost abandoned. The move is an acknowledgement by US commanders that they do not have the manpower needed to defend that ground. The same is true of Afghanistan as a whole. The Pentagon has been forced to fight the Taliban and Afghan warlords with manpower and resources it knows to be insufficient, as an "economy-of-force campaign."
How to Save Afghanistan - Rory Stewart, Time opinion
Terrorism and insurgency are only part of what's going wrong in Afghanistan. In 2002, I walked safely along the length of the road between Herat and Obey in western Afghanistan. Recently aid workers were carjacked on that road, and it is now considered too dangerous for aid agencies, effectively closing the main access to the central regions of the country. In provinces close to Kabul, such as Wardak, Ghazni and Logar, which were easy to visit two years ago, foreigners are regularly attacked and girls' schools burned at will. Afghanistan produces 92% of the world's opium (used to make heroin) and 35% of its cannabis and has a flourishing trade in looted antiquities. In a vicious cycle, narcotics, corruption and the absence of law and order are rotting the heart of the government and crippling the economy. Despite massive Western investment, Afghanistan is close to being a failed state. What should we do about it? Many policymakers want to throw more money and troops at the problem. Both Barack Obama and John McCain say that as President, they would send additional combat brigades - from 7,000 to 15,000 troops - to tame the insurgency in Afghanistan. At a June conference in Paris, Western governments committed an additional $20 billion in aid, in the hope that this would finally bring success in counterinsurgency, counternarcotics, rule of law, governance and state-building - and eventually allow us to withdraw from Afghanistan with honor. But just because Afghanistan has problems that need to be solved does not mean that the West can solve them all. My experience suggests that those pushing for an expansion of our military presence there are wrong. We don't need bold new plans and billions more in aid. Instead, we need less investment - but a greater focus on what we know how to do.
Pakistan's Enduring Illusions - Jim Hoagland, Washington Post opinion
Polls show that US policy already faces "mounting popular opposition" in Pakistan, which has not been significantly influenced by the election of a new civilian government in February. Pakistani politicians, civil servants and military men have told me in recent months that open "collaboration" with the United States is so "dangerous" that they cannot afford to be seen working with the Americans. So I was not encouraged by hearing Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi utter the bromide that his coalition government "enjoys the support of the people." The coalition will be hard put to maintain that support while it deals with the dilemma posed by the unpopularity of its partners - Washington and President Musharraf, who remains in office though not in power. During a meeting at The Post, Qureshi solicited the kind of new aid that Obama and McCain both dangled: "The US should support the people who are in office today... If we fail, the alternative is the happy-go-lucky mullahs." But the foreign minister would not accept the candidates' calls for increased joint military efforts to eliminate safe havens in Pakistan for the Taliban, which Qureshi termed "a fringe element." And he flatly opposes any unilateral US military action.
Taliban Ultimatum - Steve Schippert, Threats Watch
We and others have been working to explain that the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance is an insurgency within Pakistan with eyes on the whole of Pakistan, beyond the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), usually reported to the American public as the Pak-Afghan border regions. Well, the ever patient creep east toward Islamabad may be picking up speed and accompanying inertia as Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud has issued an ultimatum to the government of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), which is situated directly between the Taliban and al-Qaeda’s FATA lairs and Islamabad.
Al-Qaeda Shifting Resources To Pakistan - Steve Schippert, Threats Watch
In explaining increased Taliban-al-Qaeda activity in Pakistan and Afghanistan in recent months, we’ve been saying this for some time now. Today, General Petraeus says so publicly: Al-Qaeda has been shifting it resources to the relative safety of Pakistan for operations from there rather than investing more in Iraq, where the terrorists have been getting hammered.
Nuristan Backgrounder - Christian, Ghosts of Alexander
I have been concentrating on Eastern Afghanistan because I feel that the region has been grossly under-reported in relation to its importance. Thank God for the Vanity Fair article on the Korengal stirring up interest in this part of Afghanistan. You could know everything about Afghanistan and nothing about Nuristan. Calling the place “unique” does not do it justice. But the problem with Nuristan is finding informed analysis. It is not easily available, the sources I have tracked down are mostly in hard to find academic journals and occasional university libraries. I have put up a few of those sources at the end of this entry. I have been finding more of the older sources and they will be included in the next (September) bibliography I put out.
Afghanistan '96: The Legacy of Information Failures - Christian Bleuer, CTLab
It is September 1996. The Taliban have taken Kabul. Hours later the US State Department Acting Spokesman Glyn Davies states that the United States could see "nothing objectionable" about the Taliban's Islamist rule, a statement that journalist Tim McGirk (now known for his role in breaking the Haditha story) charitably noted was issued with "unseemly haste." But even after two months during which to reflect on the issue, gather information and form a message, the State Department still managed another blunder, this time at the UN. It was here in November 1996 that Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Robin Raphel brushed aside international "misgivings" about the Taliban and insisted that the Taliban must be acknowledged as an "indigenous" movement with "demonstrated staying power."
ISAF Rejects Claims - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) denied yesterday's operation in western Afghanistan resulted in civilian deaths. The operation led to the killing of two Taliban leaders and the discovery of a makeshift jail. ISAF said the claims made by a tribal elder and a district leader was "baseless" because Coalition aircraft were not operating near the villages where civilians were purportedly killed. "ISAF has thoroughly investigated and rejects claims that ISAF forces killed more than 50 civilians in the Shindand area," the Afghanistan command stated in a press release. "Our extensive investigation reveals that the closest airstrikes carried out were 13 km to the South East of these villages."
Troop Surge for Afghanistan? - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal
Similar to the opposition to the surge in Iraq, the chorus of voices calling for a military stand-down in Afghanistan are growing. There is the classical “we can’t win” approach, analogous to the “insurgencies cannot be beaten” meme (regardless of the fact that the insurgency has essentially been beaten in Iraq). Then there is the “we must educate the extremists out of there extremism” approach. In this version of the problem, the root of the extremism becomes disenfranchisement, poverty, and valid grievances which require redress (regardless of the example of Bangladesh, which is 90% Muslim and one of the poorest nations on earth, but without the violent extremism). There are other stupid arguments for a draw-down of troops (or leaving a very small military footprint) over which we won’t waste our time.
IRAN
Iran Not Budging on Nuke Program - John Zarocostas, Washington Times
Iran's nuclear negotiator yielded no ground Saturday in talks, attended by a top US official, on Western demands that Tehran freeze its nuclear program. "It was a constructive meeting, but still we didn't get the answer to our questions," said the European Union's chief foreign-policy envoy, Javier Solana, after the one-day talks. Mr. Solana said he was still awaiting word from Iran on a proposed package of incentives for Tehran to give up its nuclear program, and he set a two-week time frame for a response before pursuing new UN sanctions.
US Fails to Sway Iran - Richter and Daragahi, Los Angeles Times
US and Iranian envoys Saturday had their highest-level diplomatic contact in 29 years, but the seven-nation gathering in Geneva on Tehran's nuclear program was quickly brought to a halt by Iran's refusal to say whether it would suspend uranium enrichment. US Undersecretary of State William J. Burns joined European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and other diplomats in an attempt to coax Tehran, represented by Saeed Jalili, to agree to a deal aimed at negotiating an end to Iran's nuclear program.
US Joins Nuclear Talks With Iran - Elaine Sciolino, New York Times
International talks on Iran’s nuclear ambitions ended in deadlock on Saturday, despite the Bush administration’s decision to reverse policy and send a senior American official to the table for the first time. The presence of William J. Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, represented one of the most important encounters between Iran and the United States since relations were severed after Iran’s seizure of the American Embassy in 1979. It came as part of a moment of rare unity among the negotiating partners - the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China - who pressed Iran to accept compromise. But Iran responded with a written document that failed to address the key issue: international demands that it stop enriching uranium. And Iranian diplomats reiterated before the talks that they considered that issue non-negotiable.
Iran Nuclear Talks End Without Agreement - Glenn Kessler, Washington Post
High-level international talks on Iran's nuclear program ended inconclusively today in Geneva, with European envoy Javier Solana telling reporters that Iran needed to give a more definitive answer within two weeks. The meeting was significant because for the first time a US diplomat, Undersecretary of State William J. Burns, joined other envoys in meeting with the top Iranian nuclear negotiator. US officials had said the shift in Bush administration policy was intended to help lead to a breakthrough in the impasse over the Iranian program, but if Iran failed to respond positively, it only would unify the international coalition dealing with Iran.
US Gives Iran Two Week Nuclear Deadline - Caroline Lees, The Times
Iranian and American officials appeared deadlocked yesterday as their most highly publicised meeting for nearly 40 years failed to produce a breakthrough on Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme. After several hours of unproductive talks the Iranians were given a breathing space of two weeks, before they resume, to take the message back to Tehran that the West would make no more concessions. The negotiations, in Geneva, allowed the United States to press its demand for the immediate suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, which many in the West suspect is designed to develop nuclear weapons. However, Iran refused to agree to any such proposal despite signs before the talks that it might be prepared to suspend nuclear activities in exchange for a package of economic incentives.
No Answer from Iran on Incentives Package - Voice of America
The European Union's top diplomat says Iran has given no clear answers to an incentives package offered to Tehran in exchange for suspending its nuclear program. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana says he hopes Iran will provide that answer soon. He spoke at a news conference Saturday in Geneva with Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, who said many of the problems related to the Iranian nuclear dispute can be resolved. The two made their remarks after holding closed-door talks that, for the first time, were attended by a senior US envoy, Undersecretary of State William Burns.
Powers Wield Sanction Threat After Iran Stalemate - Reuters
Major powers gave Iran two weeks to answer calls to rein in its nuclear programme on Saturday or face tougher sanctions after talks ended in stalemate despite unprecedented US participation. A US State Department spokesman said Washington hoped Iran now understood that it had a choice between cooperation and "confrontation, which can only lead to further isolation." But prospects of ending a row that has triggered regional tensions and rattled oil markets looked dim as Iran's top nuclear negotiator insisted Tehran would not even discuss a demand to freeze uranium enrichment at the next meeting.
Iranian Rebel Flees into Exile - Sarah Baxter, The Times
When the order came to return to prison, the Iranian dissident had no time to lose. Ahmad Batebi’s body had already been broken by torture after eight years of a 15-year prison sentence. He had been beaten with metal cables, suspended by his arms from the ceiling and taunted with mock execution and had had his head dunked in excrement until he was suffocating. Batebi fled the country with the help of a Kurdish underground movement, which led him over mountains and mine-fields across the border into Iraq. Last month he was granted refuge in America and is still coming to terms with his strange new freedom.
Ground Options in Iran - Tom Ricks's Inbox, Washington Post
Army Maj. Bruce W. Terry, in a paper written last year at the Army's Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., explains why the United States doesn't have much of a ground military option for dealing with Iran.
Ayatollah Talk - Oliver North, Washington Times opinion
Here in the Carolina "Low Country," there is considerable consternation about this week's meeting in Switzerland between US and Iranian diplomats. Such confusion is understandable given the longstanding Bush administration policy against such meetings, recent events in that part of the world - and the way in which the State Department and White House announced the July 19 get-together. In short, what has been happening in that part of the world and what Washington is now saying just don't match. That's a very dangerous combination. Last summer, the government of Israel began making significant improvements in measures to protect their civilian population. Civil-defense enhancements include new bomb shelters, stockpiling food and water, distribution of upgraded chemical-biological protective equipment, radiation detectors - and drills so civilians know where to go and when in the event of an attack. Though these preparations have been openly discussed and debated in the Israeli press, they have been widely ignored by mainstream media in the United States.
IRGC Troublemaking with Frigates - Galrahn, Information Dissemination
As we have mentioned many times on the blog in the past, events are taking place at sea in the Middle East that are often not reported in the media. The 5th Fleet in particular keeps information very close, and rarely does it see the light of day without a political motivation, and even then it is some source in Washington leaking information, not 5th Fleet. Other nations tend to follow a similar policy. This particular incident is flying pretty low under the radar. The IRGC appears to be still playing its tricks in the Persian Gulf, but with tensions with Iran very high it is noteworthy this report went unreported until now. Note the timing, this was during the recent missile tests by Iran, which coincided with major Iranian Navy maneuvers* in the Strait of Hormuz. Guess these IRGC dudes got left behind, and had nothing better to do. Iranian Revolutionary Guard speedboats menaced the Devonport-based warship HMS Chatham as weapons tests ordered by the Tehran regime to deter strikes on its nuclear weapons facilities raised tension in the Gulf, it can be revealed.
The Worm Finally Starts to Turn on Iran - Tom Barnett, Thomas PM Barnett
It'll be interesting to see if Bush can get something done before the end of his term or whether the Iranians will simply play out the string, watching the election. Either way, it's a good start and better than subcontracting the non-kinetics to the Europeans and the kinetics to Israel on an issue of such importance to us. In the end, though, we have to recognize this emerging thaw (always easily reversed) for what it is: Bush-Cheney have finally come to recognize the cost of the tie-down in Iraq and Afghanistan and now have basically signaled their desire to sue for peace everywhere else.
THE LONG WAR
Stopping Terror at the Coast - Katie Falkenberg, Washington Times
US Customs and Border Protection agents at Miami's busy Air and Marine Branch received "vague intelligence" that a boat speeding west from the Bahamas and bound for Florida was carrying 100 kilos of narcotics. Thirty miles south at the Homestead Air Reserve Base, a crew of four Air Interdiction and Enforcement agents - two pilots and two radar operators - pulled on their flight suits, threw bulletproof vests over their shoulders and scurried to board their Dash 8 aircraft, a sleek-looking, twin-engined, medium-range turboprop aircraft.
Talks Exemplify New Approaches - Dan Eggen, Washington Post
With his moves last week involving Iraq, Iran and North Korea, President Bush accelerated a shift toward centrist foreign policies, a change that has cheered Democrats, angered some Republicans and roiled the presidential campaign. Bush sent his first high-level emissary to sit in on nuclear talks with Iran, which ended without agreement Saturday. Also in the past two days, the president agreed for the first time to set a "time horizon" for withdrawing troops from Iraq, and authorized Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to join North Korean diplomats at six-party talks about ending that country's nuclear weapons program. The maneuvers underscore how much the Bush administration has changed since 2002, when the president proclaimed Iraq, Iran and North Korea to be an "axis of evil." Now Bush is pushing forward with diplomatic gestures toward Iran and North Korea while breaking with a long-held position on troop withdrawals in the interest of harmony with the Iraqi government.
Detaining Mr. Marri - New York Times editorial
The Bush administration has been a waging a fierce battle for the power to lock people up indefinitely simply on the president’s say-so. It scored a disturbing victory last week when a federal appeals court ruled that it could continue to detain Ali al-Marri, who has been held for more than five years as an enemy combatant. The decision gives the president sweeping power to deprive anyone - citizens as well as noncitizens - of their freedom. The Supreme Court should reverse this terrible ruling. Mr. Marri, a citizen of Qatar legally residing in the United States, was initially arrested in his home in Peoria, Ill., on ordinary criminal charges, then seized and imprisoned by military authorities. The government, which says he has ties to Al Qaeda, designated him an enemy combatant, even though it never alleged that he was in an army or carried arms on a battlefield. He was held on the basis of extremely thin hearsay evidence.
Al Qaeda's Market Crash - Ralph Peters, New York Post opinion
If you think the US markets have problems, look at the value of al Qaeda shares throughout the Muslim world: A high-flying political equity just a few years ago, its stock has tanked. It made the wrong strategic investments and squandered its moral capital. In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, Osama bin Laden was the darling of the Arab street, seen as the most successful Muslim in centuries. The Saudi royal family paid him protection money, while individual princes handed over cash willingly: Al Qaeda seemed like the greatest thing since the right to abuse multiple wives. Osama appeared on T-shirts and his taped utterances were awaited with fervent excitement. Recruits flocked to al Qaeda not because of "American aggression," but because, after countless failures, it looked like the Arabs had finally produced a winner. What a difference a war makes.
Interfaith or Fatwa? - Claude Salhani, Washington Times opinion
An interfaith conference opened in Madrid Wednesday hoping to find a solution that would end disputes between the world's major religions. The conference, organized by the World Muslim League at the behest of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, comes at a time when interreligious strife has increased the distrust among religions. Religion-based violence, particularly in the Middle East, has pitted Christians against Muslims in Egypt, Lebanon and Iraq. While acts of violence between Sunni Muslims and Shi'ite Muslims claimed hundreds of victims in Lebanon and Iraq, as well as in Pakistan and India. Religion-based strife has also led to bloodshed between Jews and Muslims in Palestine and Israel; and the denial of the Holocaust has contributed to rising tension in the region.
9/11 and 4/11 - Thomas Friedman, New York Times opinion
The economist Paul Romer once said to me that “a crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” President Bush is well on his way to being remembered as the leader who wasted not one but two crises: 9/11 and 4/11. The average price of gasoline in the US last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, was $4.11. After 9/11, Mr. Bush had the chance to summon the country to a great nation-building project focused on breaking our addiction to oil. Instead, he told us to go shopping. After gasoline prices hit $4.11 last week, he had the chance to summon the country to a great nation-building project focused on clean energy. Instead, he told us to go drilling. Neither shopping nor drilling is the solution to our problems.
Building Terror Through Design - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar
This is a very important thesis. Sociologist Frank Furedi has consistently warned that contemporary political discourse risks normalising fear/terrorism as a default state. Are we to let urban planners and designers normalise our kinetic experiences and design interactions as responses to the perception of terrorism as a an ever-present and existential threat? This is a point Bryan Finoki has written on brilliantly in his comments on the fossilization of the GWOT.
American Grand Strategy - Mark Safranski, ZenPundit
Falling on the heels of the Bacevich post, MIT’s Dr. Barry Posen’s testimony before the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee for oversight calls for ” Restraint and Renewal”. Posen is a sharp thinker who aims here to deflate comfortable assumptions and a number of sacred cows - like the existence of NATO or security relationships with Israel and Japan. While much of his critique of American excess is reasonable, Posen’s alternative quasi-non interventionist grand strategy is predicated, like others in this vein, on lowballing estimates of the negative, unintended, consequences on an American strategic retraction on this scale. America pulling out of NATO military command and loosening ties with Japan and Israel will cause ripple effects in the international order.
Why Terrorists Quit - David Axe, Danger Room
"In recent months, there has been a spate of seemingly good news in the counter-terrorism arena, as former terrorist leaders and clerics have renounced their previous beliefs," Michael Jacobson writes in the latest Sentinel counter-terrorism journal. He lists former extremists from Egypt to the UK who have abandoned their old terrorist colleagues, including former Islamic Jihad boss Sayyid Imam Al Sharif, who has just written a new book criticizing Al Qaeda.
COMPLEX OPERATIONS
Why the Military Loses the Information War - Andrew Klavan, City Journal opinion
I kept thinking back to all those antimilitary movies I’d seen and to left-wing journals like the New York Times, which consistently highlight military abuses and failures while obscuring and downplaying military heroism and advances. The servicemen I was training with were clearly smart, expert, and committed to excellence in the defense of their country. They also seemed a lot more mentally stable than most of the screenwriters, journalists, and academics I know, though that’s not saying much. Yet Hollywood and our left-wing media, as well as our antimilitary professoriate, can be quite convincing when, say, they portray an isolated injustice like Abu Ghraib as evidence of systemic atrocity, or depict veterans as more likely to commit crimes than the rest of us, which statistically they’re not. Conversely, as spectacular as our armed forces are at the business of ousting real-life tyrants, they fall a little short when it comes to works of the imagination.
Habits that Are Good for You... - Kip, Abu Muqawama
A recent article in the NY Times details the efforts of Dr. Val Kurtis to get people to wash their hands in poor, sub-Saharan African countries. Her method: study the work of industry giants to see how they created habits in Western consumers. Kip believes there are lessons learned for our advisors conducting Security Force Assistance in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. At the macro-level, as we identify trends that undermine the force, e.g., poor vehicle maintenance, failure to clean weapons, failure to account for ammunition, etc., focus campaigns on creating habits associated with parts of a soldier's daily life, e.g., "finish your daily prayer, clean your weapon."
US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Secrets to Terror-Fighters - Noah Shachtman, Danger Room
The Marines are charging two senior non-commissioned officers for taking part in what the San Diego Union Tribune calls "a theft ring that involved the stealing of secret files on potential terrorists." But no one is accusing Gunnery Sgt. Eric Froboese and Master Sgt. Reinaldo Pagan of giving away classified information to Al Qaeda. Instead, the Marine reservists are being hammered for passing data to one of the country's most celebrated counter-terror groups. Back in 1996 -- five years before most local law enforcement agencies had the foggiest idea who Osama Bin Laden was -- Los Angeles Sherriff's Department Sgt. John Sullivan and Deputy Larry Richards started the Los Angeles County Terrorism Early Warning group, or TEW. The idea was for federal agencies, military groups, first responders, and local cops to swap ideas about what terror threats might be coming next, and how best to respond. Radicals had their own loose networks to dream up schemes and share thoughts; here was a chance for government to fight that, with a network of their own. Every month, dozens and dozens of specialists from across southern California would get together to discuss how hospitals could cope with mass-casualty events -- or how gangs like MS-13 might be the region's real terrorists.
Strategic View at NAVSEA is Embarrassing - Galrahn, Information Dissemination
Admiral Morgan once told me every budget is a strategy. We are still waiting to see evidence of that, ask a dozen sailors the strategy of any given program, and you will not find consistent answers. The guidance in the Navy towards resources doesn't exist, so slogans like the one Admiral Morgan used have little value until they are representative of something visible. It is probably a good assumption Admiral Morgan hasn't read this email posted by some NAVSEA SES, reproduced over at CDR Salamanders, because had he seen it, he might have a few words regarding the abuse of the word and concept of strategy. Around the world, the Navy is executing the six core capabilities of the Maritime Strategy - forward presence, deterrence, sea control, power projection, maritime security and humanitarian assistance / disaster response. This strategy is not about navies, but about maritime domain awareness. It is about partnership, it is about cooperation, it is about countries pooling their resources, sharing information. This is exactly what NAVSEA did this past week in attending the Quadrilateral Shipbuilding Forum (QSBF) in Ottawa, Canada. The purpose of QSBF is to facilitate the exchange of information between the member nations, including Canada, Australia and the UK, that are focused on reducing the cost of naval shipbuilding.
Problems and Solutions - Richard, Defence of the Realm
For every solution, there is a problem – an aphorism which applies as much to the famed mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles as anything else. Predictably, therefore, as the use of MRAPs becomes more common in Iraq and Afghanistan, the limitations of the vehicles are becoming more apparent, leading to a rash of articles bringing these to the fore.
Big Army - Carl, Because We're Here Boy...
This is a "Big Army" story. For those of you with military experience it will be a story often told and heard. For me it is a new thing and as a civilian I am still frustrated by it. For those of you like me, the story is typical of the "Big Army". We have M-4 rifles and we like to keep them clean. It is hard to do in a dusty environment. If you cover the muzzle and the open magazine well (regs don't allow us to keep an empty magazine in the magazine well), the rifle is mostly sealed against the dust and it stays clean much longer. You can cover the muzzle with plastic wrap and put a sock in the magazine well and that does the job but it looks bad and the plastic wrap comes off easy. Commercial vendors in the States sell plastic fitted muzzle caps and magazine well covers that do the job even better and look good. The items are cheap too. I tried to buy some today. I placed the order and found out they couldn't ship it to us over here. They said the Army won't allow anything that goes on the gun to be shipped via an APO, Army Post Office.
UK MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
Ahead of the Game? - Richard, Defence of the Realm
It would be entertaining to take a sarcastic view of the much-trailed speech to be given by General Sir Richard Dannatt this evening on the importance of reconstruction in the armoury of the modern soldier. We could so easily offer the jibe, "nice of you to catch up", remarking that we have been banging this drum for some little time, the work based on the gradual realisation that the war in Afghanistan will be won or lost not by the force of arms but by the success of the reconstruction effort. However, to do so would not only be unfair, but facile. As one of the pieces which trails the speech – this one in The Daily Telegraph - points out, there has already been some "friction" between the military and civilian reconstruction teams, and there is and has been a genuine concern in the corridors of power about the lack of progress in this department – an issue we highlighted yesterday.
US CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
When Spies Don’t Play Well - Mark Mazzetti, New York Times
As they complete their training at “The Farm,” the Central Intelligence Agency’s base in the Virginia tidewater, young agency recruits are taught a lesson they are expected never to forget during assignments overseas: there is no such thing as a friendly intelligence service. Foreign spy services, even those of America’s closest allies, will try to manipulate you. So you had better learn how to manipulate them back. But most CIA veterans agree that no relationship between the spy agency and a foreign intelligence service is quite as byzantine, or as maddening, as that between the CIA and Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI. It is like a bad marriage in which both spouses have long stopped trusting each other, but would never think of breaking up because they have become so mutually dependent.
The Dysfunctional Relationship Between CIA and ISI - Westhawk, Westhawk
This weekend’s New York Times has an article on the dysfunctional relationship between the Central Intelligence Agency and Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Service Intelligence. The article recounts the dealings between the two agencies over the past three decades, the results of which should leave observers wondering whether the ISI is an ally or adversary of the United States. Perhaps the most interesting facet of the article is its portrayal of CIA officers assigned to Kabul and Islamabad apparently succumbing to the “Stockholm Syndrome” at their respective stations. According to the article, working relations between CIA officers posted to Kabul and Islamabad may be little better than the working relations between the Afghan and Pakistani governments, which is to say, not good at all. The US will not be able to achieve success in Afghanistan until it first achieves much greater leverage over the ISI. Unfortunately, it appears as if it is the ISI that possesses all of the leverage.
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Obama Meets Military Leaders in Afghanistan - Voice of America
US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has met with US military commanders in Afghanistan, at the start of an international tour designed to boost his foreign policy credentials. Obama visited Bagram air force base in eastern Afghanistan Saturday as part of a congressional delegation that includes two other US senators. The US military says commanders briefed the lawmakers about the war effort. Afghan officials say Obama will meet with President Hamid Karzai during his visit. He is also expected to travel to Iraq.
Obama Opens a Foreign Tour in Afghanistan - Gall and Zeleny, New York Times
Senator Barack Obama arrived in Afghanistan on Saturday, opening a high-stakes foreign trip in a country that is increasingly the focus of his clash with Senator John McCain in the presidential campaign over whether the war in Iraq has been a distraction in hunting down terrorists. As Mr. Obama met with American troops, military leaders and regional officials in eastern Afghanistan, he made no public statements in his first hours on the ground here, the first stop on a weeklong trip that will take him to Iraq, Israel and Western Europe. But Mr. McCain quickly sought to raise questions about Mr. Obama’s judgment on foreign policy, saying in a radio address on Saturday that his Democratic opponent had been wrong about the increase in troops in Iraq, a strategy Mr. McCain said should be the basis for addressing deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan as well.
Obama Gets Look At Afghan War Zone - Rondeaux and Balz, Washington Post
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama arrived in the Afghan capital Saturday for a two-day visit to the war-torn country as the debate over the US-led military mission here moves to center stage in the US election. Obama arrived at Kabul International Airport on Saturday morning, but his itinerary was closely guarded for security reasons amid a surge in Taliban activity in recent weeks. Afghan and U.S. officials in Kabul confirmed that the Illinois senator was part of a congressional delegation visiting the country. But most declined to discuss whom he was scheduled to meet, with some denying that Obama was even in the country hours after he had landed.
Obama Timeline Doable, Iraqi Says - Christina Bellantoni, Washington Times
Sen. Barack Obama's first journey to Afghanistan was highlighted Saturday by a key Iraqi leader endorsing the Illinois Democrat's timeline for US troop withdrawal. The visit - kept secret until Mr. Obama arrived in the war zone - kicked off his tour of the Middle East and Europe and signified the balance he must strike between policy meetings with world leaders and building international support through his popularity. "I'm more interested in listening than doing a lot of talking," the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said as he left Washington.
Maliki Embraces Obama Plan - Nicholas and Faiez, Los Angeles Times
Barack Obama met with US troops and received a military briefing on conditions in Afghanistan on Saturday during the opening leg of an overseas trip designed to showcase his appeal in foreign capitals and reassure American voters that he would make a reliable commander in chief. Obama's trip is scheduled to include a visit to Iraq, and his foreign policy judgment got an unexpected boost from that country's leader, Nouri Maliki, who praised the Democratic presidential candidate's plan for withdrawing US troops over a 16-month period.
Barack's Iraq Trip - New York Post editorial
Barack Obama is headed for the front - including a stop in an Iraq that would look far different had Washington adopted the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee's strategic imperatives. Indeed. For the troop surge so vehemently opposed by Obama has clearly succeeded - as GOP candidate John McCain declared yesterday. "We have succeeded in Iraq - not 'we are succeeding' - we have succeeded in Iraq," said McCain. "The strategy has worked, and we now have the Iraqi government and military in charge of the major cities in Iraq. Al Qaeda is on [its] heels and on the run." McCain has every good reason to be outspoken about the good news.
Obama, Democrats, and the Surge - Peter Wehner, Weekly Standard opinion
This is the week that the Democratic party ran up the white flag when it comes to the surge in Iraq. Leading the surrender was none other than Barack Obama, the Democratic party's presumptive nominee for president and among the most vocal critics of the counterinsurgency plan that has transformed the Iraq war from a potentially catastrophic loss to what may turn out to be a historically significant victory. On Monday, Obama wrote a New York Times op-ed in which he acknowledged the success of the surge. "In the 18 months since President Bush announced the surge," Obama wrote, "our troops have performed heroically in bringing down the level of violence. New tactics have protected the Iraqi population, and the Sunni tribes have rejected Al Qaeda--greatly weakening its effectiveness." A day later, Obama gave a speech in which he declared for the first time that "true success" and "victory in Iraq" were possible. In addition, the Obama campaign scrubbed its presidential website to remove criticism of the surge. The debate, then, is over, and the (landslide) verdict is in: The surge has been a tremendous success.
Maliki’s Gift to Obama - Abe Greenwald, Contentions
Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s vocal support for Barack Obama’s 16-month withdrawal timetable goes to show how distorted the Iraq drawdown argument has become in light of the election narrative. Of course a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq becomes less preposterous as security increases in that country - because during that transition the idea of timetables stops being purely artificial and becomes more reality-based. To think otherwise is a logical absurdity, and that’s what the popular state of this discussion has become.
AFRICA
Somali Killings of Aid Workers Imperil Relief - Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times
At a time of drought, skyrocketing food prices, crippling inflation and intensifying street fighting, many of the aid workers whom millions of Somalis depend on for survival are fleeing their posts - or in some cases the country. They are being driven out by what appears to be an organized terror campaign. Ominous leaflets recently surfaced on the bullet-pocked streets of Mogadishu, Somalia’s ruin of a capital, calling aid workers “infidels” and warning them that they will be methodically hunted down. Since January, at least 20 aid workers have been killed, more than in any year in recent memory. Still others have been abducted. The deliberate assault on aid workers is a chilling new dimension to the crisis in Somalia that has unfolded over the past 17 years but has grown increasingly violent as outside forces, including the United States military, have turned a civil war into a more international conflict.
Indictment Seen as Threat to Peacekeepers - Colum Lynch, Washington Post
Six days before Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir was charged with genocide, a group of 200 fighters on horseback, supported by more than 40 vehicles mounted with machine guns, carried out the bloodiest and most sophisticated ambush yet on a fledgling UN and African peacekeeping mission. The July 8 attack - which killed seven peacekeepers and wounded 22 - bore similarities to Sudanese-backed raids by Janjaweed horsemen that have led to the deaths of more than 300,000 civilians and forced nearly 3 million people from their homes in Darfur over the past five years, according to internal UN accounts.
Arab League Holds Emergency Talks on Sudan Charges - Voice of America
Arab foreign ministers held an emergency meeting in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, Saturday to discuss the latest developments in relations between Sudan and the international community. The emergency summit was called after the International Criminal Court indicted Sudan's president on July 14. The ICC prosecutor has indicted President Omar al-Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes that took place in the Darfur region. Sudanese government officials said they requested the Arab League meeting in order to show that the country's judicial system is capable of addressing alleged crimes in the western region of Darfur. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mussa planned to travel to the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, Sunday, following the emergency summit.
Arab Nations 'Agree Sudan Action' - BBC News
Arab foreign ministers say they have agreed a plan of action to defuse the crisis between Sudan and the International Criminal Court (ICC). They met in Cairo after the ICC's chief prosecutor said he would seek to indict Sudan's president on charges of war crimes and genocide in Darfur. Ministers said the ICC move had set a dangerous precedent. Amr Moussa, secretary general of the Arab League, said he would travel to Sudan on Sunday to discuss their plan.
Darfur Indictment Prompts Coup Fears - Rob Crilly, Daily Telegraph
Sudan's repressive military regime has placed the capital, Khartoum, on a near siege footing to prevent the war crimes indictment of President Omar al-Bashir from prompting a palace coup. In a clear sign that the government has been unnerved, the army has declared it will lead a three-day joint security forces exercise across the city. It fears a coup orchestrated by Western spies as well as renewed assaults by Darfurian rebels, who crossed hundreds of miles of desert and mountains to shell Khartoum in May.
War Crimes Leverage - Washington Post editorial
The announcement of war crimes charges against Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court invoked groans from several of the governments and aid organizations trying to help the people of Darfur -- and not without reason. The United Nations peacekeeping mission to protect Darfur's more than 2 million displaced people is already failing. Though the UN Security Council voted a year ago to authorize a 26,000-member force, only a few hundred troops have so far joined the 9,000 African Union soldiers who previously patrolled Darfur. The force lacks helicopters or armored vehicles and is unable to prevent the regular hijacking of aid vehicles by Darfur's many armed groups; earlier this month seven peacekeepers were killed in an ambush of their convoy.
Justice is the Enemy of Peace - David Rieff, Los Angeles Times opinion
The long-awaited decision by the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, to indict Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir on genocide and war crimes charges has been greeted with relief and satisfaction by the vast majority of people haunted by the tragedy of Darfur. For Darfur activists -- and no African cause since the movement against apartheid in South Africa has had such reach or influence -- Bashir is the architect of what they are certain has been a genocide just as surely as Adolf Hitler was the architect of the Holocaust. And if this is true, they argue, it would be immoral not to try to bring Bashir and other central figures in the Khartoum dictatorship to justice. Some of these campaigners argue that the indictment represents the first significant step toward an effective regime of international justice in which world leaders guilty of crimes against humanity will no longer enjoy the kind of impunity that they have had in the past.
Want Leverage with China on Sudan? - Tom Barnett, Thomas PM Barnett
China doesn't really care about Sudan's leader, just about possibly losing out economically on the far side of that event (unlikely to happen unless some enforcing third party steps in and grabs the guy). Address that issue with China and you might get some serious leverage with locals on the subject of this guy's proposed prosecution.
Arab League Prefers Genocide - Merv Benson, PrairiePundit
This might be called genocide by diplomacy. It is the multilateral genocide that diplomats appear to condone as opposed to seeking justice for victims. It is really hard to have an respect for the Arab League's position. They would rather talk with a mass murderer than stop him.
Zimbabwe Moves to Formal Talks - Voice of America
Zimbabwe's ruling and opposition parties have moved closer to formal negotiations on a power-sharing deal. Talks on ending the country's ongoing political crisis had stalled, but it appears a key sticking point has been resolved. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai had insisted another mediator join South African President Thabo Mbeki in efforts to help solve Zimbabwe's political crisis. Mr. Tsvangirai had accused the South African president of favoring Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe. The South African president has agreed to accept help in his mediation efforts from representatives of the African Union, United Nations, and the Southern African Development Community.
Zimbabwe Opposition May Agree to Talks - Cris Chinaka, Reuters
Zimbabwe's main opposition party could sign an agreement as early as Monday to begin substantive talks with President Robert Mugabe's party on ending a political impasse that has worsened the country's severe economic crisis, opposition officials said on Saturday. The apparent breakthrough came after South African President Thabo Mbeki proposed forming a team drawn from African regional bodies and the United Nations to help him mediate the worsening crisis in neighboring Zimbabwe. A statement seen by Reuters on Saturday said Mbeki had proposed during a meeting on Friday creating a team representing the African Union, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the United Nations, with which he would liaise in efforts to foster dialogue between Zimbabwe's warring parties.
Zimbabwe as Precedent - S.D.K. Ellis, CTLab
Whatever happens in, or to, Zimbabwe over the next few months, it will surely set an important diplomatic and legal precedent. President Mugabe (as we must still see him) has staked his political claim on the principle of state sovereignty. He also makes great rhetorical use of the ideology of national liberation, the foundational charter of his government. Yet a resolution of Zimbabwe’s crisis seems bound to involve international mediation in some shape or form. It is precisely because President Mugabe’s claim has been stated so forcefully, on behalf of a political party that has often been represented as a model of national liberation in Africa, that the resulting clash of principles will be heard with particular clarity. The least likely candidates for international mediators are actually the United States and the United Kingdom. The USA has little leverage over a country that has never been squarely within its sphere of influence, while Britain’s leverage has been neutralized to a considerable extent by Mugabe’s tactical astuteness.
Nigeria Shelves Oil Crisis Summit - Gilbert da Costa, Voice of America
The Nigerian government has bowed to pressure from groups and ethnic leaders from the oil producing Niger Delta to suspend indefinitely a peace summit aimed at halting attacks on the petroleum industry. President Umaru Yar'Adua has failed to pacify the Niger Delta and now must come up with a new strategy to halt the violence. Oil production in the Niger Delta has recently been hard hit by attacks by rebel groups on petroleum facilities, causing Nigeria to lose its position as Africa's biggest oil producer. The year-old administration of President Umaru Yar'Adua has repeatedly promised to address the root causes of the violence. The peace summit was a key component of government's plan to halt the deteriorating security situation. But most of the region's ethnic leaders dismissed the conference as a distraction and instead, urged the government to urgently respond to long-standing grievances of the impoverished residents of the Niger Delta.
Africa's Last and Least - Kevin Sullivan, Washington Post
In poor West African nations such as Burkina Faso, mealtime conspires against women. They grow the food, fetch the water, shop at the market and cook the meals. But when it comes time to eat, men and children eat first, and women eat last and least. Soaring prices for food and fuel have pushed more than 130 million poor people across vast swaths of Africa, Asia and Latin America deeper into poverty in the past year, according to the UN World Food Program. But while millions of men and children are also hungrier, women are the hungriest and skinniest. Aid workers call malnutrition among women one of the most notable hidden consequences of the food crisis.
ASIA PACIFIC
A New Generation of Activists Arises in Burma - Washington Post
The security apparatus of Burma's military junta was thought to have largely shattered the opposition last August and September, in a crackdown that included soldiers firing on an alliance of monks and lay people who had taken to the streets by the thousands to protest a rise in fuel prices. More than 30 people died. At least 800 were detained and many more were forced into exile, according to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. But a new generation of democracy activists fights on, its ranks strengthened both by revulsion over last year's bloodletting and the government's inept response after a cyclone that killed an estimated 130,000 people two months ago. Largely clandestine, these activists make up a diffuse network of students, militant Buddhist monks, social service workers and leaders of the 1988 uprising.
Olympics Test Press Freedom - David Sands, Washington Times
When the International Olympic Committee awarded the 2008 Summer Games to Beijing in July 2001, a crucial factor in the winning bid was a promise by China's communist leadership to let the world's media hordes do their job when they came to cover the athletes. Wang Wei, secretary-general of the Beijing Olympic Games Committee, told the IOC at the time that international journalists would have "complete freedom to report when they come to China." Temporary regulations approved through October explicitly allow foreign journalists to conduct interviews with any willing Chinese organization or individual, not only on the sporting events but on "political, economic, social and cultural matters of China... in conformity with Chinese laws and organizations." But with the official opening of the Games less than three weeks away, human rights activists and regime critics say the reality has fallen far short of the promises.
Brown Aide a Victim of Honeytrap - Leppard and Newell, The Times
A top aide to Gordon Brown has been a suspected victim of a “honeytrap” operation by Chinese intelligence agents. The aide, a senior Downing Street adviser who was with the prime minister on a trip to China earlier this year, had his BlackBerry phone stolen after being picked up by a Chinese woman who had approached him in a Shanghai hotel disco. The aide agreed to return to his hotel with the woman. He reported the BlackBerry missing the next morning. The aide, whose identity is known to The Sunday Times, immediately reported the theft to the prime minister’s Special Branch protection team and was informally reprimanded.
EUROPE
Russia Faces an Aging Defense Industry - Associated Press
Former President Vladimir V. Putin, now Russia's prime minister, has boasted of new weapons systems and of strengthening the armed forces, raising fears in the West of a Cold War-style military buildup. Flush with oil money, the Kremlin is in the market for new weapons. But Russia's state-run defense industries, experts say, face a crumbling manufacturing base and pervasive corruption; they have produced little in the way of advanced armaments in the Putin era. The Victory Day parade in Red Square in May was intended to showcase the nation's military might. Instead, Russia's arsenal showed its age. Most of the planes, tanks and missiles that rolled past Lenin's tomb dated to the 1980s or were slightly modernized versions of decades-old equipment.
Russia's New (and Old) Plan - Boston Globe editorial
The next US president will have to deal with an energy-rich Russia that bears little resemblance to either the vanished Soviet Union or the economic basket case of the immediate post-Soviet years. Though run by a mafia of Kremlin-connected moguls and KGB veterans, Russia has an abiding interest in cooperating with the West. Yet so far, John McCain and Barack Obama have paid too little attention to Russia and how it sees its role in the world. On Tuesday, President Dmitry Medvedev released a document outlining Russia's new foreign policy strategy and gave a pep talk about it to Russian diplomats. There are instructive differences between the new Russian doctrine and the last such statement eight years ago. The old strategy aimed at undoing America's unipolar dominance. The new document calls for "strategic partnership" with Washington and observes that the West has lost "its monopoly on global processes." (Left unnamed is the Western leader who threw away the aces he had been dealt at the beginning of this new century.)
Ten Kurdish Rebels Killed in Clashes in SE Turkey - Reuters
Ten members of the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) were killed in clashes with Turkish military forces in southeastern Turkey late on Friday, security sources said on Saturday. Six were killed in the firefight which broke out in a rural region of Siirt province after Kurdish guerrillas detonated an improvised explosive device under a minibus carrying schoolchildren, injuring two people. Security forces said the clashes began after they launched an operation to find the group responsible for the attack. They also said two PKK members were killed in a clash in Hakkari late on Friday and two other militants were killed in Bingol.
MIDDLE EAST
Hezbollah Wins, For Now - Washington Times editorial
Iran and Hamas both have good reason to praise Wednesday's prisoner exchange between Hezbollah and Israel as a victory for the jihadists, at least in the short term. Hezbollah, Iran's terrorist proxy, won the release of five imprisoned Lebanese in exchange for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers kidnapped and killed by Hezbollah on July 12, 2006, in a cross-border attack that precipitated that summer's Israel-Hezbollah war. Hamas says that in the wake of Hezbollah's success in getting Lebanese gunmen out of Israeli prisons, it plans to drive a hard bargain for the release of Israeli Cpl. Gilad Schalit, who was kidnapped by Hamas in a June 25, 2006, cross-border raid into southern Israel.
Who is the Islamic Health Authority? - Chris Albon, CTLab
A convoy of Red Cross trucks entered Israel today in preparation for the transfer of 200 Lebanese and Palestine corpses as part of the prisoner exchange agreement. The coffins will be transported into Lebanon and given to the Islamic Health Authority. So what is the Islamic Health Authority? Hezbollah's very own Ministry of Health, that's what. Over the years, domestic and Iranian funding has allowed Hezbollah to establish a large and effective health care system, run by the Islamic Health Authority. The Authority maintains (by one count) 50 active hospitals, primarily in Beirut and the Shiite dominated south, including hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies.
Yemen War Expanding - Jane Novak, The Long War Journal
The boundaries of the war in Yemen war are expanding beyond the northern Sa'ada governorate. For the first time, bombing is audible from Sana’a, the nation's capital. Recent battles are among the bloodiest in memory. After four years of armed conflict between the government and a group of Zaidi rebels, the war's impact is spread far beyond the combatants and the field of combat. Military, judicial and civil policies targeting the rebels have precipitated a humanitarian crisis in Sa'ada and a civil crisis in the nation with rights groups protesting mass arrests and other tactics. Yemen’s government is a military dictatorship. It allows more than one political party, but President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s GPC Party is in full control. The Zaidi rebels represent a Shia-related minority.
SOUTH ASIA
Closer US Ties Could Cost India PM - Somini Sengupta, New York Times
A deepening friendship with the Bush administration has pushed the elected government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the brink of its own demise. Now, with a confidence vote in Parliament scheduled to begin this week, the government’s scramble to stay in power and its rivals’ efforts to oust it have set off an intense and often brazen round of political bargaining. The confidence vote appears to be extremely close for Mr. Singh’s Congress Party-led coalition government, and the stakes high. If the government wins a majority of the 543-member Parliament, it will be permitted to remain in power until its five-year term ends next May. If it loses, national elections will be scheduled sooner - not an inviting prospect for an incumbent government troubled by rising food and fuel costs.
Mine Kills 9 in Indian Army in Kashmir - Reuters
At least nine Indian soldiers were killed and more than 16 were wounded Saturday when their vehicle ran over a land mine near Srinagar, Kashmir’s main city, the police and witnesses said. The soldiers’ vehicle, an army bus, was badly damaged in what was believed to be the biggest attack on Indian soldiers in recent months. It was not known who was responsible for the attack, which occurred before a new round of Indian-Pakistani peace talks scheduled for Monday. Separatist militants in Kashmir, which has a Muslim majority, oppose the talks.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
22 July - Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare (Public Event). Washington, DC. The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) is sponsoring a discussion on counterinsurgency on 22 July 2008, at the National Press Club (the Holeman Lounge), Washington, DC. Dr. John Nagl (Center for a New American Security), Dr. Daniel Marston (Australian National University), and Dr. Carter Malkasian (CNA) recently collaborated on Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare (Osprey, 2008), an edited book that examines 13 of the most important counterinsurgency campaigns of the past 100 years, including the current Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. Dr. David Kilcullen (U.S. State Department), the renowned counterinsurgency expert, will moderate the discussion and provide critical commentary. Lunch will be provided. Books will be available to purchase at a discounted rate. For more information, visit the first link above. RSVP at kattm@cna.org or 703.824.2436.
11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.
11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.
16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.
