IRAQ
Maliki’s Demands - Max Boot, Contentions
How concerned should we be about demands emanating from the Maliki government for a withdrawal timetable for US troops? Unless something changes dramatically, the answer I would give is: not very. That’s not because the situation in Iraq is so stable that we can pull out American forces without doing any damage. Despite recent gains in security, the situation remains fragile and US forces will need to remain in Iraq for years to nurture this embattled democracy-and not so incidentally to protect our own interests in the region.
Does Maliki’s Demand for Withdrawal Indicate Reconciliation? - Westhawk
The focus this week in Iraq has centered on Prime Minister Maliki’s apparent demand for foreign forces to withdraw from Iraq. The US and Iraqi governments are negotiating agreements that would set the rules under which US forces would operate in Iraq starting in 2009. Emboldened by the recent successes of Iraqi security forces in Basra, Sadr City, and Mosul, Mr. Maliki now feels in a position to call for the US military and others in the Coalition to set a timetable for the withdrawal of their forces from Iraq. Is this a sign of a strong, unified Iraq, ready to assume responsibility for its internal and external security? Or does Mr. Maliki want the Americans out of the way so that he can then lead the majority Shi’ites on a score-settling sweep of Sunni and Kurdish opponents?
Anbar Tribes to Enter Politics - Mohammed, Iraq the Model
The Anbar Salvation Council announces plan to nominate candidates for the upcoming provincial elections and accuses the Islamic Party of plotting electoral fraud. From following the course of security and political events in Anbar, it appears that this particular province will witness the most dramatic political reshuffle when provincial elections take place later this year.
Trained and Ready? - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump
In testimony before Congress yesterday, Army Lt. Gen. James Dubik became the latest general to stake his reputation and integrity on the readiness of the Iraqi security forces. He expressed an optimistic view that the Iraqis would be ready to lead the fight for Iraq in as little as 12 to 18 months. Sounds great. Unfortunately, it's terribly incomplete.
Bittersweet Recovery - Charlie, Abu Muqawama
Most readers will remember that in May 2007 three US soldiers were captured south of Baghdad in a well-laid ambush, setting off a massive manhunt. Officials announced the recovery of PFC Joseph Anzack Jr. earlier this year. Today we have word that families have been notified that the other two bodies have been recovered; Army SGT Alex Jimenez and PVT Byron Fouty can now be properly mourned.
Interview w/ LTC Morales CDR 1-35 AR - Uncle Jimbo, Blackfive
I had the pleasure of speaking with LTC Morales CDR 1-35 AR just across the Diyala River from Baghdad today. He had plenty of news about their current operations and the shift toward the Iraqi government and security forces taking increasing responsibility.
Interview w/ LTC Schrout of 2-6 INF - Uncle Jimbo, Blackfive
I had the chance to talk with another of our ground commanders LTC Schrout of 2-6 INF whose unit took over operations in the area of Salman Pak. That name should ring a bell as it is one of the Sunni havens just near Baghdad where the insurgents would hide during our previous clear and not hold operations. He actually described it as a bedroom community for the bad guys just a quick run up the highway to SE Baghdad.
PBS Frontline - Inside the Iraqi Insurgency - COIN Central
COIN Central (The Counterinsurgency Journal) has the videos.
AFGHANISTAN
Winning the War - Richard, Defence of the Realm
What started off as a response to the torrent of analytical media articles in the wake of the death of the 100th British soldier in Afghanistan - and the several deaths that followed in short order - has become a major piece of work in its own right, running to twelve parts. The work is now complete and this post is the index.
A Culture of Revenge - Will Hartley, Insurgency Research Group
The ever-useful Combined Arms Research Library (CARL) has published a report - written by Raja G. Hussain of the US Naval Postgraduate School - that examines the role played by collateral damage in exacerbating the Afghan insurgency.
Agrarian Roots of Pashtun War & Peace Leadership - GOA, Defence of the Realm
All Afghanistan experts are equal. But Boston University anthropologist Thomas J. Barfield is more equal than most. With a long involvement in Afghanistan (since the 1970s), Barfield brings some much needed expertise on Pashtuns and the broader society of Afghanistan to the issues that need to be addressed. Look up his work in The Afghanistan Analyst bibliography (pdf). His writings are essential reading (his dissertation and book were on the Afghan Arabs).
Afghanistan: Building Security - David Wood, Military Watch
It's been heartening to see the return of more than 5 million refugees back home into Afghanistan since US forces ousted the Taliban in 2001. Many Afghan families had fled from the long war with the Soviets and then the Taliban's brutal rule, ending up in refugee camps in Pakistan or Iran where life was a grim struggle for clean water, shelter and dignity. The camps I've seen, outside of Peshawar, bred hopelessness... and extremism. Out of that cauldron came the concept and planning for 9/11.
"More than 100 Terror Camps" - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
Al Qaeda continues to grow its network and expand its capabilities in northwestern Pakistan, US military and intelligence officials told The Long War Journal. The peace agreements have given the Taliban and al Qaeda time and space to re-establish their networks, which pose a threat not only to Pakistan, but the West as well.
Pakistan Signs Peace Agreement - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
Just 10 days after the Pakistani government launched an offensive against extremist groups threatening Peshawar, the government signed a peace accord with the Lashkar-e-Islam, one of the purported targets of the operation. The peace agreement comes the same day that five members of the Frontier Corps were killed and three were wounded in an attack in Khyber.
Taliban "Shadow" Governor Slain - Matt Dupee, The Long War Journal
Afghan civilians confronted a group of twelve Taliban fighters in the desolate northwestern province of Faryab on Thursday, sparking a clash that left two Taliban fighters killed and sent the rest fleeing for their lives. Among those killed was Abdul Hamid Akhundzada, the newly appointed Taliban “shadow” governor for Faryab, making it the second Taliban-appointed governor killed this season.
Update: Marines in Southern Afghanistan - David Wood, Military Watch
Marines have been fighting in southern Afghanistan since late March, and the region is "secure but not yet stable,'' according to wire service accounts of a news conference in Kabul this morning by Col. Peter Petronzio, commander of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit. Petronzio said his 2,500 Marines, who deployed to Afghanistan from Camp Lejeune, N.C., in March, had killed more than 400 insurgents in Helmand Province. He said that estimate came from the provincial governor. "The number which is most important to me is the civilian casualties, and we believe and are confident that that number is zero," Petreonzio said, according to a Reuters account.
We're Here to Help - Kip, Abu Muqawama
24th Marine Expeditionary Unity (MEU) has some excellent videos on their website. Kip was struck by this one. For those who haven't done it/seen it, the range of responses that soldiers and Marines must go through in warfare among the people are simply astonishing. How does one move from the emotion of combat to the partnership required for reconstruction and population security?
Escalation in Afghanistan - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal
Both the size of the ISAF and the insurgency are growing in Afghanistan, but the the rates of growth are disparate. There have been more US and NATO troops killed in Afghanistan in June than in Iraq for the second straight month. But more to the point, many of the NATO troops aren’t allowed in kinetic engagements, so deploying more German troops doesn’t help if their mission is unnecessary. To comprehend the full force of the report, it should be realized that some troops are taking a disproportionate level of the burden (e.g., US troops), and the Marines’ deployment to Afghanistan has been bloody.
Right Prescription for the Taliban - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal
Admonitions to spin off factions of the Taliban or Taliban-sympathizers against the so-called “hard core” Taliban are becoming commonplace. But who are the Taliban? We have already discussed the disaggregation of the Taliban into drug runners, war lords, petty former anti-Soviet commanders, criminals, Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Taliban, al Qaeda, and other rogue elements in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
IRAN
Limited Resources: Iran and US Military Options - Warren Wilkins, Threats Watch
With rumors of an Israeli rehearsal for attacks against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure still in the news, advocates of a negotiated settlement to the Iranian nuclear stand-off once again urged diplomacy. And once again the Iranians seem intractable on the issue. In response to Iran’s intransigence, opponents of a military solution readily cite the prospect of two crucial, and undesirable, consequences of attacking Iran - the increased likelihood of a wider war which could engulf much of the region, and the resultant burdens on an already over-taxed US military. Neither of these should be drowned out by the din of a new military offensive.
RE: Limited Resources... - Steve Schippert, Threats Watch
I understand that Warren’s greater point is that our military is entirely too small to most effectively engage and sustain the conflict at hand, in all its theaters - present, looming and potential. And on that we certainly agree. Debate over what America’s next step should have been post-Taliban-al-Qaeda rout in Afghanistan is a healthy exercise. However, calling the opening of a second front “one of the great blunders of the present administration” is well off the mark.
The Fleet Positions Itself For War Part II - Galrahn, Information Dissemination
In going through the morning reading, one of the first things I read was the post by Thomas Barnett that declared All systems "go" for war. Dr. Barnett has excellent instincts, but in my study of the Iranian issue, I simply could not see a scenario for war unfold by either the United States or Israel until after we get public statements by the Chinese. I posted some comment to that effect on Dr. Barnett's blog, and thank goodness that blog is moderated, because 10 minutes later I realized the conditions for war are indeed being met. China, and Japan have weighed in.
Iran, Israel and Missiles - John Robb, Global Guerrillas
The wild card in any potential conflict between the West and Iran has always been Israel. It alone considers Iran + nuclear weapons an existential threat (the lack of identifiable existential threats to the West is the primary reason conventional warfare in an age of global interconnectivity will become very rare). As a result, Israel has been engaged in a fierce internal debate over whether to accept Iranian nuclear development (which, according to Israeli estimates reaches a tipping point in the spring of 2009) or delay the program through an attack. Iran nearly decided that debate with this week's very provocative and well timed missile tests (particularly of Shahab-3, a missile with a range of 1,250 miles).
Negotiations Begin at the Scary Part - Tom Barnett, Thomas PM Barnett
Remember: peace can only "break out" when war is ongoing or threatening, so no assumptions on the feasibility here just because Israel and Iran go through their exercises. But I do think we're seeing posturing by Iran largely for the next president. I think Tehran is laying the groundwork for a Bush-to-Obama switch much like it did for Carter-to-Reagan: what is inconceivable with one becomes far more conceivable with the next.
Pars for the Course - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club
Just as Iranian Revolutionary Guard general was boasting that Teheran’s “finger is always on the trigger and we have hundreds and even thousands of missiles ready to be fired against predetermined targets”, the French energy giant Total was pulling out of the South Pars (the modern name for ancient Persepolis) gas project.
Arab Support Against Iran? - Eric Trager, Contentions
Haaretz is reporting that an unnamed Arab state has declared that it “won’t oppose” an Israeli military strike against Iran. According to the article, this state fears growing Iranian influence in the region, particularly among its Shiite communities. (My guess is that it’s Saudi Arabia, which has a sizable-and increasingly restless-Shiite underclass.) Meanwhile, Israeli sources say that other Arab states are echoing this support.
THE LONG WAR
UN System for Designating Terrorists Faltering - Victor Comras, Counterterrorism
The UN system for designating terrorists is weak, under attack, and needs to be reformed. That is the thesis I present in an article just published online in Perspectives on Terrorism. And the challenges are coming from all sides.
Special Operations and the Hunt for OBL - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal
The always interesting Bill Gertz at the Washington Times has the scoop on a hot debate between the intelligence community and DoD on the use of Special Operations inside Pakistan to kill or capture OBL.
Passports and the Criminal / Terrorist Networks - Douglas Farah, Counterterrorism
Seems that the UK is tightening its entry requirements for South Africa. The reason: Britain has threatened to impose a visa regime on visitors from South Africa amidst fears that the country is being used as a transit point by al-Qaeda operatives to gain easy entry to the UK. The Government is also concerned that the country is being used by people smugglers to bring non-South Africans into the UK. There it is: the criminal/terrorist network. Both groups need the same thing and acquire them from the same place, with the same fixers running the shadow infrastructure that will service anyone who can pay.
American Madrassa Victims - GOA, Ghosts of Alexander
This is unbelievable. Imran Raza’s documentary “Karachi Kids”, based on the trailer, seems like an amazing documentary, but both depressing and frightening. Actually, it’s believable and that’s what’s scary: American kids sent by theirparentsfathers to a madrassa in Pakistan for an indoctrination. First they hate the madrassa and want to go back to America, then they admit they are becoming robots and then finally they have nothing but hate to express.
Islamist Lawfare in England - Emanuele Ottolenghi, Contentions
Freedom of speech is considered to be the mother of democratic freedoms. And England is considered the mother of democracy. Nevertheless, in recent times, British libel laws have been used and abused not so much to protect reputable individuals from calumny but to silence critics of questionable figures and to cover up questionable practices. In a recent comment, Nick Cohen, Observer columnist and author of the book What’s Left?, denounces the latest fashion in libel suits in the UK - something people like Rachel Ehrenfeld are painfully familiar with. The trigger for Cohen’s comments was a libel suit launched a few days ago by Mohammad Sawalha, president of the British Muslim Initiative, against the British blog Harry’s Place, arguably one of the best English language blogs.
COMPLEX OPERATIONS
Why Stability Operations Matter to Gen. Caldwell - Nukes and Spooks
I assumed that his drive was shaped by Iraq or his colleagues’ experiences in Afghanistan. But as it turns out, it is based on his tours in Panama and Haiti and the first Gulf War, examples where he says the military figured out how to win the war, but not the peace. In Panama, he was part of the U.S. effort to remove Manual Noriega, who surrendered. But then what? “All we ever planned for the initial assault takedown and transition of authority within the government. Nobody ever talked about picking up trash, reestablishing the police force, figuring out what do with their military. …So we go in, take down the government, then somebody turns around and said ‘How are we going to get the police back out on the street?’”
Women Prominent in Defense Movement - Spencer Akerman, Washington Independent
In a series of interviews, leading woman counterinsurgents, and some of their male colleagues, discussed how the unconventional approach to military operations calls for skills in academic and military fields that have become open to women in recent decades. Others contend that counterinsurgency's impulse for collaborative leadership speaks to women's "emotional IQ," in the words of one prominent woman counterinsurgent. Another explanation has to do with coincidence: the military's post-Vietnam outreach to women has matured at the same time as counterinsurgency became an unexpected national imperative.
War Dames - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump
Spencer speculates about why women have done so well in the counterinsurgency community and correctly notes that they're competing for prominence in a male-dominated field, where it matters to many that you've served as a combat infantryman or have participated in special operations. Although many combat roles in the military have opened to women, most infantry and special operations jobs remain closed. And thus there are few opportunities for women to prove themselves on the frontlines, at least in the manner the defense establishment is used to. Times, though, are a changin'. A new generation of female military personnel is growing up, serving in combat with distinction -- as diplomats, helicopter pilots, civil affairs officers, engineers, logisticians, military police, and in many other roles. More than 100,000 women have served in Iraq or Afghanistan as military, civilian or contractor personnel.
AFRICA
Money, Money, Money - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club
Who says socialism doesn’t work? The country that has produced the most trillionaires in history isn’t America, but Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe. The Wall Street Journal describes what it is like to dine out on the town. “Buying anything is a ‘bizarre experience,’ said Lucy Chimtengwende from Bulawayo, who spent $12 US on lunch recently, with the bill in local currency being an astonishing 1.1 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.” Inflation has been given a whole new meaning in Zimbabwe, whose currency has depreciated ten billionfold in twelve years, a rate that threatens to exceed the bounds of the database field sizes that the bank’s software developers thoughtlessly assumed would be enough. Consider the travails of a man who simply wanted to buy groceries.
EUROPE
Serbia Has a New Government! - Douglas Muir, A Fistful of Euros
It took just 57 days, which by Serbian standards is pretty quick. It’s a strange beast, with Milosevic’s old Socialist party riding shotgun on a coalition of pro-Western liberals and technocrats, but it’s actually less insane than what they had before. In order to make it work, they had to pass a Law on Government authorizing a whopping 28 Ministers or Ministry-level positions… it was the only way they could keep all coalition members satisfied.
MIDDLE EAST
Interesting Problem in Socio-cultural Evolution - Marc Tyrrell, In Harmonium
On June 11th, former Syrian Information minister Dr. Mahdi Dakhlallah raised a number of very interesting questions about why the former cradle of Arab cultures (which he defines variably as Mesopotamia, the Nile, Syria and Lebanon) had failed to modernize as effectively as the Gulf States (see MEMRI Special Dispatch #1976, July 7th, 2008).
Egypt: Proposed Law to "Slaughter the Media" - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark
The Egyptian independent newspaper al-Masry al-Youm has published what it claims is a draft of a proposed law governing the Egyptian media prepared by the ruling National Democratic Party (full text of the draft law here) to be submitted at the beginning of the next Parliamentary session. Editor in Chief Magdy al-Galad declares the draft law an attempt to slaughter every form of media from satellite TV to Facebook. If the published draft text is accurate, it's easy to see why. The draft law would establish a new national agency to issue all broadcast licenses, and to regulate and censor all forms of broadcast media. It defines broadcast media very broadly to include the internet and all other forms of communicating text, video or audio.
"... According to Palestinian Hospital Officials." - Noah Pollak, Contentions
How many times have you read news stories in which information about a violent incident was sourced to anonymous Palestinian “medical officials” or “hospital workers”? Such sourcing is standard journalistic practice in reporting from the territories, and as I’ve noted before, it is one of the most dubious. Here’s an amazing case in point: Mohammed Omer, a Gaza-based “journalist.” (Read his bio here, and his personal website, and decide for yourself what his actual profession is.) Anyway, Omer is a hero/celebrity in certain enlightened political quarters, and so he traveled to Europe for three weeks to receive a journalism award and bask in the adulation of the righteous.
MORE RECOMMENDED READING
(Or, I ran out of time reading my favorite blogs - so here are more of the above or blogs I just could not get to tonight... - Dave)
Information Dissemination - More good stuff than you can shake a stick at.
Michael Yon - Enough said.
The Long War Journal - Enough said.
Insurgency Research Group - Check out their recommended CI/CT reading.
Counterinsurgency Library - Check out the new additions.
Counterterrorism Blog - Lot's more besides the two posts linked above.
CTLab - Always a good read, some of it I even understand.
Ubiwar - Again, always a good read, some of it I even understand.
Kings of War - King's College - more good stuff.
Military Watch - David Wood of the Baltimore Sun - boots-on-the-ground reporter.
Westhawk - Good friend of SWJ and a very, very insightful blog.
Threats Watch - More good friends of SWJ and a must read.
ZenPundit - SWJ friend and Council member Mark Safranski.
MountainRunner - SWJ friend and Council member Matt Armstrong.
War and Health - Chris Albon's fine blog.
Strategy and National Security Policy - Rantings of a very smart guy.
Haft of the Spear - Michael Tanji's fine blog.
Because We're Here Boy... - Carl, living the dream.
Pacific Empire - New Zealand's wild and crazy Libertarians.
