IRAQ

Shaping the Iraq Inheritance - Kahl, Flournoy and Brimley, CNAS

American policy in Iraq will undergo two critical transitions throughout the remainder of 2008 and into early 2009: movement to a new U.S. posture in Iraq; and a wartime transition to a new administration. It is vital that both are handled in a way that best advances U.S. interests in Iraq and the region. Yet neither is being paid sufficient attention. Shaping the Iraq Inheritance outlines America’s interests in Iraq and the region, analyzes recent security and political trends, presents a framework for understanding U.S. strategic options, and makes recommendations for how the Bush administration, the military, and Congress can best prepare for the dangerous period ahead.

Surge Turns the Tide in Iraq - Martin Chulov, The Australian

As the last Australian troops in Iraq this week folded their base camp flag, their coalition colleagues marked their lowest monthly combat casualties since the fall of Baghdad five years ago. The diggers' departure was sold as an honourable withdrawal at a time when people have grown tired of talking about the war. But there are growing signs the battle zone they leave behind is markedly different to the one they entered. The trend lines have heartened US commanders, but other developments in Iraq have led some strategists and intelligence figures to sound convincingly upbeat about what lies ahead after five years of blood-soaked counter-insurgency and bitter political realities.

Bush’s Security Rethink - Peter Wehner, Contentions

One of the fundamental mistakes the Bush administration (in which I served) made was to believe political progress and elections would have radiating and far-reaching security effects; that the Sunni insurgency would be drained of its violence and energy as insurgents increasingly took part in the political process. But it turns out that the political progress that was made - and which was an authentic expression of the longing of the Iraqi people to be free - wasn’t nearly enough. So long as basic security wasn’t provided, whatever political and economic progress was made could be quickly undone. This important error in judgment played into other ones: the US should pursue a “light footprint” approach, the insurgency was primarily a product of the American occupation (we were part of the problem and therefore a quick exit from Iraq would lead to lessening violence), nation building was passé, and decapitating Saddam’s regime should be the primary objective of the war. We placed far too much confidence in American military technology and not nearly enough planning into what it took to win an asymmetrical war. There was an understandable longing to leave Iraq as soon as possible; the problem is that this mindset led to trying to accelerate the hand-off to the Iraqis before they were ready. We kept trying to pass the baton to the Iraqis - and it kept being dropped.

DC Awakening - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

I spent this morning in a very small meeting with a visiting delegation of about a dozen tribal leaders from Iraq, including a number of well-known leaders of the Awakening movement. It was a fascinating meeting, in many ways, if somewhat frustrating. My long-standing skepticism about the Awakenings is no secret. Nor is my more recent advocacy that at this point they need to get integrated into the Iraqi military. So I was quite keen to hear what they had to say on this trip to Washington DC - their second, from what I was told, including a visit with President Bush - and to probe their current thinking.

From Baghdad with Love - Grim, Blackfive

Al Mahaba radio -- "Love," in Arabic -- is Baghdad's first radio station that is by women, for women. It reaches across the city, and into the northern and eastern provinces. It has been around for a while, but remains struggling, and often unable to pay its staff. I mention it both to draw it to your attention, and also because it is supported by the kind of peace group we could use more of in the West. These are people whose first concern is with the people of Iraq. While not supporting the war, neither do they call for the reckless abandonment of the Iraqi people. Rather, their concern is partnership with and support for the women and children of Iraq -- a goal that many in the US military heartily share. Their first interest is with the people of Iraq, not themselves.

Four Special Groups Leaders Captured - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

Coalition special operations forces have captured four Iranian-backed Special Groups leaders and operatives south of Baghdad over the past two days. Three of the Shia extremists were captured in Wasit province, the gateway for weapons smuggled into Baghdad from Iran. Two of the Special Groups operatives were captured during separate operations on June 6 in the town of Al Hayy, a region about 30 miles south of Al Kut in Wasit province. The first raid netted an "Iranian-trained Special Groups leader suspected of directing and ordering attacks against Coalition forces in Wasit Province, as well as attacks and kidnappings against civil authorities," Multinational Forces Iraq reported. The Special Groups leader also smuggles "Iranian weapons into Baghdad, specifically Kaytusha rockets." A second Special Groups operative was captured as he tried to escape a Coalition forces raid in Al Hayy.

Iranian-Sponsored Fighters Arrested - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

It has been two productive days for the the US in Iraq. On Thursday, June 5, the US apprehended a high level financier and smuggler of Iranian weapons. In even bigger news today, is has now been learned that the individual arrested is the number 2 figure in Hezbollah’s military wing (the deputy military chief). “The arrest is a major achievement and could provide an intelligence bonanza,” an Iraqi source said.

Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle - DJ Elliot, The Long War Journal

The June 2008 updates to the Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle are now available at the ISF OOB homepage. The significant changes to the Order of Battle that occurred in May are summarized below.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

Afghan Officials: Coalition Airstrike Kills 32 Militants - Voice of America

Afghan officials say a US-led coalition airstrike has killed 32 militants in southeastern Afghanistan. A spokesman for the governor of Paktika province said Friday the strike occurred on Thursday in Paktika, which borders Pakistan. Coalition officials confirmed the attack and said they had reports of 20 militants killed in the operation. Also Thursday, coalition officials said NATO forces fought off an attack by militants in southern Zabul province. At least nine militants were killed.

As Ills Persist, Afghan Leader Is Losing Luster - Helene Cooper, New York Times

After six years in which Hamid Karzai has been the darling of the United States and its allies, his luster may be fading. Next week, Mr. Karzai, the Afghan president, is to arrive in Paris for a donors conference with attendees from 80 countries and organizations. He will ask for $50 billion to finance a five-year development plan intended to revive Afghanistan’s decrepit farming sector, promote economic development and diversify the economy away from its heavy reliance on opium.But there is a growing concern in Europe, the United Nations and even the Bush administration that Mr. Karzai, while well-spoken, colorful and often larger than life, is not up to addressing Afghanistan’s many troubles.

Afghan Tribal Leader Killed - Gall and Shah, New York Times

A powerful tribal leader was gunned down outside his home in the southern city of Kandahar by suspected Taliban Friday morning, Afghan officials said. Muhammad Akbar Khakrezwal, a former commander and supporter of the government, was shot by two men on a motorbike, a preferred tactic by Taliban gunmen. He died before he reached the hospital. Mr. Khakrezwal’s brother, the police chief of Kabul, was killed in a suicide bombing in Kandahar June 6, 2005, three years ago to the day.

Paras Launch Biggest Battle - Thomas Harding, Daily Telegraph of London

In one of the biggest air assaults in their history, troops from the Parachute Regiment have spent the last four days deep in Taliban territory. Breaking one of the last insurgent strongholds in southern Afghanistan, the "Battle of Qarat-e-Hazrat" in Zabul Province ended in an enemy rout. The Daily Telegraph's Defence Correspondent Thomas Harding watched as British firepower finally turned the tide in the Taliban's own "back yard".

'Brothers' Regiment Now in Afghanistan - Sara Carter, Washington Times

On June 6, 1944, the 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment known as the "Band of Brothers" landed in Normandy, France, and changed the course of World War II. The modern-day Band of Brothers prepared Friday for an air assault and dropoff in the eastern Paktika province near the Pakistan border, a stronghold of the Taliban insurgency. Like their "brothers" in World War II, many of the soldiers in what is now the Bravo Company, 506th Infantry Regiment, Combined Task Force Currahee are young and on their first deployment.

Tour Began in Shirtsleeves, Ended in Burka - Cameron Stewart, The Australian

Most Australian journalists treat Afghanistan as nothing more than a brief tour of duty. They fly in for a few days, usually under military protection, and give a short summary of the latest events before flying home to safety. Sally Cooper chose the road less travelled. She quit her job as a producer with Sydney's ABC radio station 2BL and found her way, via Africa, to a new life in Kabul. For the next three years, from 2003 to 2006, Cooper lived in Afghanistan, not as a correspondent but as a resident, training Afghans to become radio journalists. In a country with a barely functioning and poorly trained independent media, it was an epic challenge and one that gave her a front-row seat to the seismic changes taking place in that country.

IRAN

Israeli Minister Threatens Iran - BBC News

A top Israeli official has said that if Iran continues with its alleged nuclear arms programme, Israel will attack it. Speaking to Yediot Ahronot newspaper, Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said sanctions on Iran were ineffective. Mr Mofaz is one of three deputy prime ministers and the transport minister. Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran's nuclear programme must be stopped by what he termed all possible means.

Israel Threatens to Attack Iran - Gordon Chang, Contentions

“If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it,” said Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz in today’s Yedioth Ahronoth, the Israeli newspaper. ”The sanctions are ineffective.” Many assume that no Israeli government will let the Iranians build a nuclear arsenal, and Mofaz’s words - he also used “unavoidable” in the same sentence as “attacking Iran” - constitute the most explicit threat to use force to date. Because it looks unlikely that the Iranians will stop their program to enrich uranium, war in the Persian Gulf is becoming inevitable.

You Have Been Warned - Westhawk, Westhawk

As the story makes clear, Mr. Mofaz’s declaration contains a fair bit of domestic political posturing. Due to corruption allegations, Prime Minister Olmert will not likely last long in office. Mr. Mofaz, angling for the prime minister’s chair, wants to demonstrate that he is tough enough to defend Israel’s interests. Should we then discount his explicit threat against Iran (his native country)? Maybe, but others will remember what he said today. Should Mr. Mofaz ascend to either prime or defense minister, and, for whatever reason, a crisis with Iran flares up, Mr. Mofaz might feel compelled to live up to today’s warning. Or risk, in the midst of a crisis, backing down and thus being viewed as an empty suit, thereby ending his political career.

Yet Another Rebuke to Ahmadinejad - Tom Barnett, Thomas PM Barnett

Let's review what's happened since Ahmadinejad took power: his allies lose the first mid-term election badly (local elections around nation), and the man he beats for the presidency (Rafsanjani) gets the chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts (the College of Cardinals-like entity that picks the Supreme Leader; then the SP nixes a bunch of his candidates for the second mid-term, where his religious conservatives lose seats in the Parliament and his rival Larijani (another candidate for prez in 05) is named speaker. Meanwhile, the fourth major prez candidate from 05, Qalibef, the Tehran mayor, grows in popularity. What does this all reflect? Ahmadinejad has not delivered on the economics--pure and simple.

THE LONG WAR

Al Qaeda Plot Conviction Upheld - Jerry Seper, Washington Times

A federal appeals court on Friday upheld the November 2005 conviction of a Falls Church man accused in an al Qaeda conspiracy to assassinate President Bush, but ruled that he had to be resentenced. Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, a US citizen born to a Jordanian father, was convicted by a federal court jury in Alexandria that rejected accusations he had been tortured by authorities in Saudi Arabia to obtain a confession, and sentenced by US District Judge Gerald Bruce Lee to 30 years in prison.

Interaction Among 9/11 Suspects Eyed - Andrew Selsky, Associated Press

US military officers responsible for defending Guantanamo detainees said they will investigate why five men accused in the Sept. 11 attacks were allowed to talk among themselves at their arraignment, purportedly pressuring one of the defendants to reject his attorneys. All five said they would represent themselves in the death penalty trial, the first US attempt to prosecute those believed to be directly responsible for killing 2,973 people in the bloodiest terrorist attacks on US soil.

The Guantanamo Court - Washington Post editorial

It's not surprising that the five detainees facing military commissions at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, for their alleged roles in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks would complain about being put on trial. Like Zacarias Moussaoui, the al-Qaeda operative who pleaded guilty in U.S. federal court to charges of conspiring to kill Americans, these men rail against the U.S. government, question the legitimacy of the military commissions and reject court-appointed lawyers. Some also claim to have been tortured. But unlike Mr. Moussaoui, the five on trial in Guantanamo have a point.

Martyrs in the Making at Guantanamo - Tim Rutten, Los Angeles Times opinion

Thursday's arraignment before a military tribunal of five Al Qaeda members accused of planning and assisting the 9/11 terrorist atrocities seemed custom-made to assist the loathsome defendants in achieving exactly what they desire -- an aura of martyrdom. The prisoners, including the plot's apparent mastermind, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, were called to answer before a military tribunal at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on murder, conspiracy and terrorism charges arising from the deaths of 2,973 people at New York's World Trade Center, at the Pentagon and in the Pennsylvania field where one of the airliners hijacked that day crashed.

US Targets al Qaeda Operatives - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The US Treasury Department has added three al Qaeda operatives from the Gulf States to the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorist Individuals. The three operatives have provided logistical, financial, and material support to al Qaeda and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group throughout the Middle East. Two of these operatives have provided direct support for al Qaeda leaders based in Iran and two have operated in the tribal regions in Pakistan. The US has designated Khalifa Muhammad Turki al Subaiy, a Qatari national; and Adil Muhammad Mahmud Abd al Khaliq and Abd al Rahman Muhammad Jaffar 'Ali, Bahraini nationals, as Specially Designated Global Terrorist Individuals under Executive Order 13224. The designation allows the US to freeze their assets, prevent them from using financial institutions, and prosecute them for terrorist activities.

Al Qaeda Issues "Request For Proposals" - Sharon Weinberger, Danger Room

Frankly, it seems like Al Qaeda is becoming more like the Pentagon with each passing day. Women want equal rights to wage Jihad; the bureaucrats issue nasty memos and want to coordinate strategic communication; and now they're putting out the equivalent of a "request for proposals" on how to cause madness and mayhem. "Senior al-Qaida leaders through a password protected Internet message board periodically ask their loyal readers to send in their best ideas for attacking their enemies," reports National Defense, quoting recent remarks by Rita Katz, of the SITE Institute. Katz claims Al Qaeda gets "thousands" of responses.

The Clash of… Ideologies - Pat Porter, Kings of War

I’ve just read Robert Kagan’s latest book, The Return of History and the End of Dreams. It can probably be seen as a superior, though more brief, meta-narrative of the strategic future, but more qualified and careful than other blockbusters, such as Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations or the various over-confident predictions of American decline, Europe’s rise or the Asian century.

IRREGULAR WARFARE

Interagency Task Force Targets ‘Violent Actors’ - Jennifer Cragg, AFPS

US Central Command is part of an Interagency Task Force for Irregular Warfare, a CentCom operations section initiative that recently stood up to track and target “violent and extreme actors” in the command’s area of operations, the Air Force general who’s spearheading the effort said yesterday. “Regionally, we look at influences of extreme actors that are malign that would provide, from within their borders, exporting either violence or activities that would be disruptive to their neighbors,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Robert H. Holmes, CentCom’s deputy director of operations, said to online journalists and bloggers during a teleconference from the command’s headquarters at MacDill Air Force Base, Fla. He added that the objectives of the Interagency Task Force for Irregular Warfare for the near term include disrupting some specific elements of terror networks.

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Voting for Commander in Chief - Frederick Kagan, Weekly Standard opinion

It would be hard to design a better test for the job of commander in chief than the real-life test senators John McCain and Barack Obama have undergone in the last two years. As the situation in Iraq deteriorated during 2006 and the war reached its most critical moment, both senators served on national security committees: McCain on Armed Services, Obama on Foreign Relations. From those positions, with access to classified situation reports as well as the public testimony and private advice of those who knew the situation in Iraq best, each man reached an understanding of the facts on the ground and the interests at stake. And each proposed a strategy. It was as close as a presidential candidate could get to showing how he would respond to a national security crisis without already being in the White House. Both men's proposals are a matter of public record, available on the Internet. McCain set forth his in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute on January 5, 2007 (at an event marking the release of AEI's "Choosing Victory," which I wrote, outlining a strategy like the one Bush later ordered). Obama presented his in the "Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007" (S. 433), which he introduced in the Senate on January 30. We also know the strategy the president chose - the surge of forces he announced on January 10, very similar to what McCain described - and the outcome it has brought.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Pentagon Official May Head Air Force - Washington Post

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates is expected to recommend the nomination of Pentagon management chief Michael B. Donley to head the Air Force, part of an overhaul of the Air Force leadership designed to improve the service's oversight of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and other matters, a senior defense official said yesterday. Donley, the Department of Defense's director of administration and management since 2005, is Gates's main staff assistant for organization and management planning. In that job, Donley oversees the Washington Headquarters Services, a 1,300-employee entity that manages the Pentagon, as well as the Pentagon Force Protection Agency and the Pentagon Renovation and Construction Program.

Gates Eyes Top Aide as AF Secretary - Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates is expected to recommend one of his top aides, Michael B. Donley, for the job of Air Force secretary, a senior defense official said Friday. In eyeing Mr. Donley as the next secretary, Mr. Gates would depend on a nuts-and-bolts administrator whose current job is to make sure the world's largest office building runs on time. Mr. Donley is now the Pentagon's director of administration and management - a title often shortened to "the mayor of the Pentagon." It is Mr. Donley who makes sure there is heat, cooling, office space, furniture and the myriad other things that make the place hum.

Raising the Bar at the Pentagon - New York Times editorial

It’s not often in American politics or government that officials are held accountable these days, so Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s decision to fire the top two Air Force leaders on Thursday was as surprising as it was commendable. Mr. Gates made accountability a priority after taking office 18 months ago, and he removed senior Army officers following disclosures of deplorable conditions at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. But never before had both a service secretary (the Air Force’s Michael W. Wynne, a civilian) and a service chief (Gen. T. Michael Moseley) been forced to resign simultaneously. It was an absolutely necessary move.

Live in Fame or Go Down in Flames - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club

Whether Gates will be remembered as "acting decisively" or taken to task for "letting things get to this point" will probably be a major theme of Washington politics in the next few days. My guess is we haven't heard the last of this.

The Few, the Proud - Dean Barnett, Weekly Standard opinion

A sense of history suffuses formal events at Harvard, probably inevitable when an institution is 372 years old. Such was the case at a commissioning ceremony this past Wednesday where five Harvard students who had completed the Reserve Officers' Training Corps (ROTC) program and who would receive their degrees the next day were sworn in as officers in the US military. Five students may not sound like much, and for a university of Harvard's size it isn't. Harvard's graduating class this year will number somewhere around 1,600. The smallness of the ROTC cohort makes the students literally exceptional. As several of the speakers and attendees at the commissioning ceremony noted, these five determined their path not only after 9/11 but after the Iraq war began. While other high school students won admission to Harvard and began dreaming about the big bucks they might make on Wall Street, the kids who chose ROTC charted a different course.

CANADA DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE

Vice-chief of Defence Gets Top Job - Allan Woods, Toronto Star

Lt.-Gen. Walter Natynczyk, a veteran of wars in Bosnia and Iraq, will succeed Gen. Rick Hillier as Canada's chief of defence staff. His choice was predicted by most military watchers, who say he will be as steadfast in support of the Canadian Forces as Hillier, though perhaps not as outspoken. Natynczyk is known mostly as a tough guy, a soldier's soldier. A native of Winnipeg, Natynczyk joined the army in 1975. He deployed to Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1994, spent a stint working in the office of the then-vice chief of defence staff, and led operations during the 1998 ice storm in the Ottawa area. He took command roles in a number of other deployments, including a second deployment to Bosnia and stints in Kosovo, East Timor and Eritrea. Like Hillier, Natynczyk studied at the U.S. Army War College and was named Deputy Commanding General of III Corps at Fort Hood, Texas. In 2004, he was sent to Iraq serving first as deputy director of strategy, policy and plans, then as head of the multinational corps.

New Top Soldier Has Softer Political Touch - Chase and Koring, Globe and Mail

The Harper government has picked a more soft-spoken and battle-hardened soldier to replace General Rick Hillier as head of the Canadian military. The Conservatives' choice, Lieutenant-General Walter Natynczyk, provides Canada with another tough warrior as Chief of the Defence Staff – but one who may step more softly and clash less openly with political masters than did Gen. Hillier. Defence Minister Peter MacKay introduced Gen. Natynczyk to reporters on Friday as a “gentleman general,” a phrase that suggests polite, but which the Nova Scotia MP later explained is meant to refer to the soldier's integrity.

Iraq Vet (yes, you read that correctly) as Defence Chief - Kip, Abu Muqawama

Canada today announced the appointment of Lieutenant-General Walter Natynczyk as the next chief of the defence staff. He will begin his job in a month. Natynczyk's appointment represents a continued nod to the transformation of Canada's military toward the aggressive pursuit of peace enforcement and counterinsurgency operations that have shaken some of the cultural foundations of Canada's self-perception as a nation involved in peacekeeping. That uneasiness has manifested itself in a number of ways, most obviously (at least to Kip, who follows these things) by holding up for years the publication of the Canadian Army's long-completed counterinsurgency doctrine due to political hand-wringing. Natynczyk served with III Corps during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) II despite Canada's non-participation in the "Coalition of the Willing" as he was serving in an exchange billet in III Corps at the time.

AFRICA

Tsvangirai Briefly Held in Zimbabwe - Celia Dugger, New York Times

With only three weeks to go before Zimbabwe’s presidential runoff, the police briefly detained the opposition’s standard-bearer, Morgan Tsvangirai, on Friday for the second time this week and directed his party to cancel political rallies, effectively preventing him from addressing voters. At the same time, the Zimbabwean government’s requirement that all nongovernmental organizations suspend their aid operations, which grew out of the authorities’ allegations that some were supporting the opposition, was condemned Friday by officials in the United States and Europe, as well as the United Nations.

Zimbabwe Detains Mugabe Rival for Second Time - Washington Post

The opposition's presidential candidate was briefly detained Friday for the second time this week as Zimbabwean authorities intensified a crackdown on political opponents and what they consider outside meddling. Police arrested Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, while he was campaigning for the June 27 runoff election in a rural area about 400 miles south of Harare, the capital. He was released two hours later without being charged.

Zimbabwe Bans Election Rallies by MDC - Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times

After its crackdown aimed at the opposition and also at Western diplomats and aid organizations, analysts believe the regime is unlikely to step down if Mugabe loses the election. Tsvangirai supporters claim that their candidate won the first round of balloting in March, but the national election commission gave him 48% of the vote to Mugabe's 43%, not enough to avoid a runoff. The ban on Tsvangirai's rallies was just the latest in a series of steps taken by the government to disrupt the opposition and others it perceives as critics. Police briefly detained the opposition leader at a roadblock Friday for the second time in a week.

Zimbabwe Halts Opposition Rallies - BBC News

Zimbabwe's authorities have stopped opposition presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai from campaigning for the 27 June election. The order banning "several future rallies" came after police briefly detained Mr Tsvangirai ahead of a rally in the second-largest city of Bulawayo. The length or extent of the ban, which cites security fears, is not yet clear. It comes soon after the government banned food aid distribution, saying agencies were helping the opposition.

Mugabe Condemned for Food Aid Ban - Harare and Philp, Times of London

Accused of genocide, callous contempt for life and deliberately causing starvation, the Zimbabwean Government faced an outpouring of international anger yesterday after its decision to halt all aid operations in the country in the run-up to the deciding presidential vote. Foreign agencies and governments raised fears of dire consequences for the already fragile humanitarian situation if the ban was not lifted. The United Nations said that the decision spelt disaster for four million Zimbabweans dependent on food aid after the collapse of the agricultural sector.

Blast Kills Soldiers in Algeria - BBC News

A bomb attack by suspected Islamist militants has killed six soldiers in Algeria, according to security sources. They say the attack east of the capital, Algiers, happened on Thursday. The soldiers were returning to their barracks when their vehicle hit a roadside bomb, reports say. The attack comes a day after a bomber attacked barracks in eastern Algiers.

All of Darfur a Crime Scene - Sydney Morning Herald

Sudan's minister of humanitarian affairs should be arrested for organising at least 200 murders and forcing 64,000 people to flee their homes, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court said. Ahmad Harun, who is officially responsible for running the relief effort in the region of Darfur, is also accused of 10 rapes. In all, the ICC prosecutor has charged Harun with 51 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity. A 16-page arrest warrant details 14 counts of murder. The ICC prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, presented a grim portrait of conditions in Darfur to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, as a majority of council members pushed for the first statement in three years condemning the Sudanese Government.

Ugandan Rebels 'Prepare for War' - BBC News

Uganda's rebel leader Joseph Kony is reportedly preparing a new offensive after refusing to sign a peace deal. Diplomats say his Lord's Resistance Army is forcibly recruiting fresh fighters and acquiring new arms in neighbouring countries. His fighters are reported to have attacked South Sudanese forces, killing 13 troops and seven civilians. Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni and the region's armies have this week all suggested taking military action.

Rwanda Genocide 'Leaders' Must be Returned - Russell Jenkins, Times of London

A district judge ruled yesterday that there was no legal reason to delay the extradition of four Rwandans to their own country to answer charges that they played leading roles in genocide.The men slipped into Britain under false identities after the backlash to the violence in which about 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis, were killed by rival Hutus over 100 days in 1994. Vincent Bajinya, 46, accused of being a “category one” offender, changed his name to Dr Brown and became a British citizen, working for an East London charity helping refugees. He faces charges of organising the militia in Kigali, the Rwandan capital.

AMERICAS

Colombia and Ecuador Restore Ties - BBC News

Colombia and Ecuador have agreed to restore low-level diplomatic ties, which were severed after a raid on a Colombian rebel camp within Ecuador. Relations are to be renewed at the level of charge d'affaires, under an agreement brokered by former US President Jimmy Carter. Colombia's cross-border raid on 1 March killed rebel commander Raul Reyes and more than 25 other guerrillas. It caused one of the biggest diplomatic crises in Latin America in years.

Mexico: Failed State/Failed Policies? - Jay Fraser, Threats Watch

It is a harsh, but probably true, reality. If Mexico is not yet a failed state, it could well be on its way to that end. Arguably, if a country cannot quell violence within its borders, it is on its way to failure; if a country has multiple gangs, in this case drug cartels operating seemingly freely within its borders, it is on its way to failure; if, despite increasing the deployment of troops to combat the drug cartels, the cartels continue to kill, the state is on its way to failure; finally, if thousands of its citizens are murdered by the unceasing drug violence and hundreds of its law enforcement officers are killed in the process, the state is on its way to failure. Yes, it is a harsh reality. My position on the situation in Mexico has been clear since before I began writing on ThreatsWatch. The unrelenting drug violence south of the border represents a threat to our National Security.

ASIA PACIFIC

Burma Begins Evicting Cyclone Victims From Shelters - New York Times

Within a week of the storm that flooded the delta here last month with waves as high as 20 feet, the monasteries in this village were swarming with 14,000 people who had lost their families, homes and livelihoods. Even as the junta publicly praised its own largess, it more quietly began evicting destitute families from monasteries and sending them back to their villages for “reconstruction” and a life of isolation. It then began shutting down its own refugee camps. “We had 2,000 people here, but three days ago, the immigration people came and took them all away,” Batdan Na Thartha Na, the senior monk at Yilakana Kyaik Htkee Yoe monastery, said Sunday.

Burma Arrests Celebrity Critic - Amy Kazmin, Washington Post

In the weeks after Tropical Cyclone Nargis battered Burma's Irrawaddy Delta, Burma's most famous comedian -- a dentist known by his stage name, Zarganar, or "Tweezers" -- spearheaded efforts by about 400 Burmese artists to collect and distribute food, mosquito nets, blankets and other supplies to destitute survivors. On Wednesday night, Zarganar was taken into custody by Burmese authorities, who insist that the relief phase of the emergency is over. The state-owned New Light of Myanmar newspaper, meanwhile, lashed out at "unscrupulous" elements that it said were exaggerating the problems in the delta.

Burma Hits Out at Cyclone Reports - BBC News

Burma's state-run media has strongly condemned media reports of the devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis. An article in a state daily accused "self-seekers" of faking video footage of the destruction - and foreign media of using it to harm Burma's image. Reports that survivors were living in dire conditions in the Irrawaddy Delta were exaggerated, it said. Burma's leaders have been heavily criticised for their reluctance to accept help after the 2 May cyclone.

Burma Leader Ordered Execution - Richard Lloyd Parry, Times of London

The leader of the Burmese junta, Than Shwe, personally ordered the murder of scores of unarmed villagers and Thai fishermen, according to a senior diplomat and military intelligence officer who defected to America. Aung Lin Htut, formerly the deputy chief of mission at the Burmese Embassy in Washington, described to a radio station how 81 people, including women and children, were shot and buried on an isolated island after straying into a remote military zone in the southeast of the country in 1998.

Draining of 'Quake Lake' Begins - Maureen Fan, Washington Post

Chinese forces on Saturday morning began draining a large lake formed by last month's earthquake, channeling water through a sluice in a carefully planned effort to prevent massive flooding. The Tangjiashan "quake lake" was formed when a landslide poured mud and rocks into a major river in Sichuan province, creating a natural dam, and security forces had been working round-the-clock to dig a sluice to release the lake water and reduce the pressure on the dam.

China: Rains Add to Flood Threat - Edward Wong, New York Times

First came the earthquake on May 12. And now this: a muddy river surging down from the mountains, swollen by sudden rainfall, has risen quickly toward the bank, forcing thousands of residents in this corner of the earthquake zone to evacuate their homes on Friday. Only this time, because their homes had already been demolished in the earthquake, most of them were evacuating tents. On Friday afternoon, heavy rains descended on Sichuan Province’s north for the first time in a week, prompting the government to evacuate people from towns already heavily damaged by the earthquake.

US Envoy Returning to N. Korea for Nuclear Talks - David Gollust, Voice of America

A senior US diplomat is returning to North Korea next week for talks on speeding up implementation of the six-party accord, under which Pyongyang is to scrap its nuclear program. The mission by the State Department's director of Korean affairs Sung Kim will focus on the disablement of North Korean nuclear facilities. The accord, under which North Korea is to scrap its nuclear program for aid and diplomatic benefits, has slipped several months behind schedule.

EUROPE

Russia Warns Georgia About Joining NATO - Sophia Kishkovsky, New York Times

President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia warned the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, on Friday that Georgia’s joining NATO would deepen the conflict between the former Soviet states. After the two leaders met behind closed doors at a palace outside St. Petersburg, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that Mr. Medvedev told Mr. Saakashvili that his quest for NATO membership would not help resolve the simmering tensions in the separatist Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russia Warns Ukraine, Georgia - Peter Fedynsky, Voice of America

Russia is warning of negative consequences if Ukraine and Georgia join the NATO defense alliance. The prediction comes on a day of one-on-one meetings between Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and most leaders of countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. The meetings came on the sidelines of a yearly economic forum in Saint Petersburg. Before heading behind closed doors for meetings with Kremlin leader Dmitri Medvedev, the presidents of Ukraine and Georgia hinted publicly at Moscow's strained relations with Kyiv and Tbilisi. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said many issues have accumulated and need to be discussed between the two countries. Georgia leader Mikhail Saakashvili also spoke of numerous problems, noting optimistically, however, that none of them are insoluble given the presence of good will.

Meet the Kremlin's New Guard - Tony Halpin, Times of London

When President Dimitri Medvedev addresses Russia's political and business elite in St Petersburg today, one man will be noticeably absent. Vladimir Putin is staying away from the international forum, in a move calculated to demonstrate that he can afford to ignore the President he created. As Prime Minister — and, in theory, deferring to the President — Mr Putin has set his own agenda, meeting foreign leaders and setting the domestic agenda with apparent disregard for Mr Medvedev. A month after Mr Medvedev's inauguration, nobody in Russia doubts that, as Prime Minister, Mr Putin is still in charge. A bigger question remains unanswered: does he want to orchestrate a slow but genuine transfer of power to his protégé, or he is intent on returning to the Kremlin?

Kosovo Albanian Sentenced in Fatal Blast - Reuters

An ethnic Albanian man was sentenced Friday to 40 years in prison for a 2001 bus bombing that killed 11 Serbs in one of Kosovo's worst attacks since its 1998-99 war. Florim Ejupi was convicted of planting and detonating a bomb that destroyed a bus carrying Serb pilgrims heading to the monastery town of Gracanica, minutes after the convoy entered Kosovo. The United Nations said the bus carried 57 passengers. In addition to the 11 killed, 22 were injured, it said.

Turkey Headscarf Ruling Attacked - BBC News

Turkey's ruling AK Party has attacked the Constitutional Court over a ruling on headscarves. The court blocked moves which would have allowed headscarves to be worn at universities. Judges said the move violated Turkey's secular principles. But AK Party deputy chairman Dengir Mir Mehmet Firat said the court had itself breached the constitution.

MIDDLE EAST

Olmert Warns of Major Military Thrust in Gaza - Isabel Kershner, New York Times

The prime minister of Israel, Ehud Olmert, warned on Friday that Israel could soon opt for a major military operation in Gaza to try to stop rocket and mortar fire from that area, which has killed three Israelis in recent weeks. Landing in Israel after a brief visit to Washington, Mr. Olmert told reporters that he was still considering the alternative option: an Egyptian-brokered temporary cease-fire with Hamas, the Islamic group that controls Gaza, and other militant organizations there. But “based on the data as I see it now,” he said, “the pendulum is closer to a decision for a serious operation.”

Gazans Stock Up on Supplies - Martin Chulov, The Australian

As Israel gave its strongest warning yet that war in Gaza was imminent, many Gazans were stockpiling meagre supplies and continuing to blame the Israelis and their allies for the crushing two-year siege. Support for the ruling Hamas administration has not waned noticeably over the past year, despite the ever-tightening boycott Israel put in place when Hamas seized power last June. However, Israel blames the militant Islamic group for the suffering of Gaza's 1.3 million people, and has been trying to force a revolt of the popularly elected Government.

Sarkozy to Meet Lebanese Leader - Hugh Schofield, BBC News

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is to visit Lebanon at the head of a large delegation of government ministers and leaders of French opposition parties. A spokesman for the Elysee Palace said the purpose was to show support for the new President, General Michel Suleiman. The army chief was elected after months of political division which exploded into bloody clashes last month.

Yemen: Concealed Sectarian Fight Endures - Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington Post

The boom of explosions swept across the high-walled compounds and minarets of this ancient Arab capital before dawn one day last week, as Shiite rebels battled for control of a mountain overlooking the city and its airport. Government warplanes backed by artillery rebuffed the rebels, the latest skirmish in a largely hidden sectarian conflict that has drawn increasing attention from Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, Shiite Iran and Sunni extremists eager for a fight.

Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood in Tough Times - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

One of the main items on my agenda in Amman last week was to check in with the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, which is actually more interesting right now than it has been in years. I guess trouble and turmoil builds character. The JMB has been under great pressure for the last few years, with the tacit deals which used to govern relations with the Hashemite regime long since broken down. The regime has been playing tough, with the November 2005 hotel bombings and the early 2006 Hamas electoral victory generally seen as the turning point. The crackdown has been on all fronts - not just the blatant interventions in the municipal and Parliamentary elections, but also the government taking over the leadership of a key Islamic charity on thin allegations of corruption (no evidence of which I have yet seen produced) and interfering with MB social services and outreach efforts throughout the country.

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan Police Say They Foiled Attack - Shah and Cowell, New York Times

Four days after a car bomb attack on the Danish Embassy in Islamabad killed eight people, the Pakistani authorities said Friday that they had foiled a new onslaught when police officers intercepted three vehicles laden with explosives and arrested three potential suicide bombers. The arrests were made during a security alert on Thursday that followed the car bomb attack outside the Danish Embassy on Monday. Responsibility for that attack was claimed Thursday by an operative for Al Qaeda in Afghanistan as vengeance for the reprinting in Danish newspapers of cartoons caricaturing the Prophet Muhammad.

Pakistan Holds Suspected Suicide Bombers - Munir Ahmad, Associated Press

Pakistan seized three bomb-laden vehicles and arrested three suspected suicide attackers, uncovering a terror plot just days after an assault on the Danish Embassy, officials said Friday. Authorities ramped up security near the enclave where most foreign diplomatic missions are located. The US Embassy strongly advised Americans to limit nonessential movement in the capital and nearby Rawalpindi.

Sri Lanka: Tamils Suspected in Bombing - Krishan Francis, Associated Press

Suspected Tamil Tiger rebels blew up two passenger buses in Sri Lanka on Friday, killing 23 people and raising the specter of an escalating cycle of attacks on civilian targets. An additional 67 people were wounded in the attacks, which came two days after a bombing that targeted civilians in Colombo, the capital. The government also blamed that blast on Tamil Tiger rebels, who have made such attacks a hallmark of their 25-year fight against Sri Lanka's government.

RECOMMENDED READING

KeepNet 6 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

Postings are likely to be light for the next few days as the slew of summer weddings begins, combined with starting a new job and attending conferences, so here are a few links to sustain in the meantime.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

17-19 June 208 - 3rd Annual North American Security Colloquium: Wars Without Borders (Public Event). Kingston, Ontario. Sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Queen's Centre for International Relations, and Defence Management Studies at Queen's University, and the Canadian 'Forces' Land Doctrine and Training System. The conflicts today in Iraq and in Afghanistan are examples of what some leading scholars and many commanders have termed “continuous wars among the people.” This type of conflict is developing or occurring in other regions of the world, in Africa and in Latin America for example. In many of these situations traditional and legal borders no longer define or contain the conflict, nor do obvious sovereign entities control belligerents. International commitments to control these conflicts necessarily demand complex, multi-dimensional diplomatic, military, police, and humanitarian responses. What has been learned about such conflicts from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may to some degree be transferable to conflicts in other regions. Assuming that the international community may well face future operations characterized by regional, borderless “wars among the people”, the centres at Queen’s University and their partners propose convening a distinguished group of approximately 200 experts from academic, military, governmental, and international institutions to examine how best to prepare commanders, military units and governments to plan for and conduct complex, multi-dimensional stability campaigns in this new environment.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.