SMALL WARS JOURNAL

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28 June SWJ News, Op-Ed, and Events Roundup

By SWJ Editors

IRAQ

New Hope for Iraqi Oil - James Hider, Times of London

It was meant to be the rising tide that would lift the Iraqi economy out of years of war and sanctions, to finance reconstruction and guarantee cheap global supplies. Yet, five years on, big oil is only just starting to move cautiously into Iraq and, despite record prices, experts caution against another false dawn of optimism. Four oil giants - Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP - are to announce next week no-bid contracts to start servicing the creaking Iraqi oil infrastructure, crippled for decades by lack of investment and often targeted by insurgents.

US Postpones Transfer of Authority - Alexandra Zavis, Los Angeles Times

The US military on Friday postponed a weekend ceremony to hand over responsibility for security in Anbar province to the Iraqi government, citing forecasts of bad weather. Lt. Col. Chris Hughes, a military spokesman, said the decision was not connected to a suicide bombing Thursday at a community meeting in the Anbar town of Karmah that killed 25 people, including three US Marines and two interpreters.

On the Menu In Baghdad, Fresh Hopes - Saad al-Izzi, Washington Post

In late 2005, a suicide bomber stepped inside Qadori, a renowned restaurant nestled alongside the Tigris River, and detonated his explosives-rigged belt. The blast killed seven employees and 22 customers and shattered a totem of Baghdad life. "It all happened in a single second," recalled Alaa Hashim, a 30-year-old cook who began working at the restaurant when he was 10. His brother died in the attack. After two years of unemployment for Hashim, the restaurant is back in business, having reopened last year on a quiet street in a fortified part of the capital. Qadori's revival is a symbol, for some Baghdadis, of the capital's slow return to normalcy.

Why Iraq Was Inevitable - Arthur Herman, Commentary opinion

According to an April 2008 poll in U.S. News & World Report, fully 61 percent of American historians agree that George W. Bush is the worst President in our history. Some of these scholars cite the President’s position on the environment, or on taxes, or on the economy. For most, though, the chief qualification for obloquy lies in Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq. In this, of course, the historians are hardly alone: five years after the launching of Operation Iraqi Freedom, both the mainstream media and America’s political elites treat the Iraq war as a disaster virtually without precedent in our national experience. But while politicians and journalists are not necessarily expected to be adepts of the long view, for professional historians the long view is a defining necessity. As the English historian F.W. Maitland wrote more than a century ago, “It is very hard to remember that events that are long in the past were once in the future.” Hard it may be, but the job of historians is not only to remember it but to judge events accordingly.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

Pentagon Report Anticipates Rising Violence - Josh White, Washington Post

Violence in Afghanistan will continue to rise this year, as Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters have proved resilient and aggressive foes against coalition forces, according to a new Pentagon report issued to Congress yesterday. Citing a weak Afghan government, struggling economy, massive increases in illegal narcotics production, corruption, growing attacks by insurgents and an increase in civilian casualties, U.S. defense officials said incremental progress in Afghanistan contrasts with significant challenges ahead.

Pentagon Paints Bleak Picture for South - Spiegel and Barnes, Los Angeles Times

The southern Afghan province of Helmand, part of the Pashtun heartland from which the Taliban emerged in the 1990s, has become the most violent and narcotics-plagued region in the country by far, according to the first formal Pentagon report to Congress on the Afghan conflict. Security for Helmand is the chief responsibility of Britain, which has about 8,200 troops in the province. Since British forces took command of the province two years ago, 103 of their soldiers have been killed.

Progress in Afghan Security, National Forces - John Kruzel, AFPS

A pair of Defense Department reports published today on Afghanistan describe progress with regard to the country’s security and national forces. The studies, which analyze results of Operation Enduring Freedom through March, were mandated by Congress and represent the first installment of what are slated to be semi-annual progress updates. The Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan depicts a “fragile” security environment in much of the country. It concludes, however, that coalition forces’ counterinsurgency approach has demonstrated how a hybrid of military and nonmilitary resources can create stability and connect Afghan citizens to their government.

Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan

June 2008 Report to Congress in accordance with the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1230, Public Law 110-181)

United States Plan for Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces

June 2008 Report to Congress in accordance with the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1231, Public Law 110-181)

Taliban Imperil Peshawa - Jane Perlez, New York Times

In the last two months, Taliban militants have suddenly tightened the noose on this city of three million people, one of Pakistan’s biggest, establishing bases in surrounding towns and, in daylight, abducting residents for high ransoms. The militants move unchallenged out of the lawless tribal region, just 10 miles away, in convoys of heavily armed, long haired and bearded men. They have turned up at courthouses in nearby towns, ordering judges to stay away. On Thursday they stormed a women’s voting station on the city outskirts, and they are now regularly kidnapping people from the city’s bazaars and homes. There is a feeling that the city gates could crumble at any moment.

Taliban-linked Rebels Execute 2 Afghans - Ali and King, Los Angeles Times

In a gruesome public spectacle, Taliban-linked militants on Friday executed two Afghan men accused of spying for the United States, slitting their throats and parading their severed heads before a cheering crowd. The killings, which took place in front of about 5,000 people in the Bajur tribal region, were said to be in retribution for a suspected US missile strike last month targeting Al Qaeda militants. That strike, in Damadola near the Afghan border, killed at least a dozen people. It was not clear whether a senior Al Qaeda or Taliban figure was the target of the attack, the latest of several such strikes this year believed to have been carried out by US forces. The dual execution was brutal even by the fundamentalist code that prevails in the tribal areas, which lie largely beyond the jurisdiction of the Pakistani government.

Marines Disrupt Taliban’s Freedom of Movement - Jennifer Cragg, AFPS

2nd Battalion, 7th Marines are disrupting the Taliban’s freedom of movement in Afghanistan’s Helmand and Farah provinces, the battalion’s commander said today. “We expected that we were going to experience a lot of friction by the enemy,” Marine Corps Lt. Col. Richard D. Hall told online journalists and bloggers in a teleconference, noting that until the 1st Marine Division unit arrived, Taliban operatives and other militants could operate as they pleased. “We’re disrupting that, and they don’t like it,” Hall said, “so they’ve been trying to come after us because of that.”

A War That's Still Not Won - Aryn Baker, Time opinion

Success in counterinsurgency is about winning trust. And despite billions of dollars in foreign investment--the international community pledged an additional $20 billion at a donor conference in June--the coalition forces in Afghanistan and its government have failed to win over the people they are trying to protect. This means Afghanistan's gains since the fall of the Taliban (more girls are going to school, health care has improved in the cities, business is booming and refugees are returning) are fragile and are threatened by the insurgency, which continues to rage in the south. Helmand--a province the size of West Virginia, with a population of just over a million--is its epicenter.

IRAN

The Europeans Step Up - New York Times editorial

It has been nearly two years since the United Nations ordered Iran to stop enriching uranium. Tehran continues to defy that order, and its scientists are getting closer to mastering a process that is the hardest part of building a nuclear weapon. So we welcome the European Union’s decision - after much foot-dragging - to impose new sanctions on Iran that go beyond what the United Nations Security Council has mandated. That means that 61 Iranians or companies - all with alleged links to Iran’s nuclear or ballistic missile programs - will now be subject to a European visa ban, a freeze on assets or both. European states must lose no time in rigorously implementing these penalties.

THE LONG WAR

al-Qaeda Leader to be Freed in Britain - Sean O’Neill, Times of London

Secret negotiations have taken place to arrange the release from a British jail of one of al-Qaeda’s most important operatives in Europe, The Times has learnt. The prisoner, who can be identified only as U, is expected to be released from the high-security wing at Long Lartin jail next week. Appeal Court judges ruled in April that the man, a 45-year-old Algerian veteran of al-Qaeda’s Afghan training camps, should be freed on bail. But discussions between security agencies and U’s lawyers became deadlocked over the conditions restricting his movements and whom he can meet when he leaves prison.

Policy Authors Defend Their Actions - Dan Eggen, Washington Post

Two key architects of the Bush administration's controversial interrogation policies defended their legal positions yesterday, sparring with House Democrats over whether discredited Justice Department opinions led to mistreatment of military and CIA detainees. The testimony from David S. Addington, chief of staff to Vice President Cheney, and John C. Yoo, a former senior Justice Department lawyer, was light on new details but heavy on rhetorical disputes with members of a House Judiciary subcommittee. Both witnesses avoided direct answers to a host of questions about their roles in preparing the legal ground for harsh interrogation tactics while arguing that such methods had been crucial in preventing another terrorist attack on U.S. soil after Sept. 11, 2001.

Who's Planning Our Next War? - Patrick Buchanan, RCP opinion

Of the Axis-of-Evil nations named in his State of the Union in 2002, President Bush has often said, "The United States will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons." He failed with North Korea. Will he accept failure in Iran, though there is no hard evidence Iran has an active nuclear weapons program?

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Military Hit With Soaring Fuel Cost - Anne Flaherty, Associated Press

Consumers at the gas pump aren't the only ones suffering sticker shock. Military units in Iraq and elsewhere will see another rise in fuel costs next week- the second midyear increase because of soaring oil prices. On July 1, the cost for refined fuel used by troops will jump from $127.68 a barrel to $170.94 - an astounding 34 percent in just six months and more than double what the Pentagon paid three years ago. It's the second increase since prices were set at the beginning of the budget year, on Oct. 1. While prices charged to war-fighting units have fluctuated in recent years, never have they faced such a steep spike in so few months.

Army Accelerates Delivery of FCS Technologies - Lindy Kyzer, AFPS

The Army is accelerating the delivery of key Future Combat Systems technologies to the field, officials announced yesterday. Infantry brigade combat teams will receive the technologies, called “spinouts,” sooner than previously planned, officials said. The spinouts include tactical and urban unattended ground sensors; the non-line-of-sight launch system, the Class I, Block 0 unmanned air vehicle; the small, unmanned ground vehicle; and network kits for Humvees.

AFRICA

Fear in Zimbabwe - Catherine Philp, Times of London

In the cities, the streets were all but deserted. In the country, the queues stretched for yards. But everywhere the mood was the same: fear, dread and resignation. The dawn that illuminated President Mugabe’s pantomime election day could not have been more different to that of three months ago, when three challengers shared the ballot with him and voters got up before first light, excited to be part of the change they scented. An e-mail being circulated from Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, urged supporters not to boycott the polls if doing so would put their lives at risk.“Whatever might happen, the results . . . will not be recognised by the world,” Mr Tsvangirai said. “God knows what is in your hearts. Don’t risk your lives.” The result, he added, would “reflect only the fear of the people of Zimbabwe”, and he urged the international community to reject the result.

Zimbabweans Go to the Polls - Washington Post

President Robert Mugabe's militias drove a frightened electorate to the polls Friday, checking off names of voters and threatening vengeance on those who failed to cast ballots for the only man ever to rule Zimbabwe. Voters said ruling party officials forced them to register their names, addresses and national identification numbers before entering polling stations. On leaving, they were told to report the last three digits of their ballot's serial number so their choice could be monitored. To make the job easier, Mugabe's party set up makeshift command centers near many polling stations.

Coercion Seen in Zimbabwe Vote With 1 Candidate - New York Times

Zimbabweans voted Friday in a runoff presidential election with only one candidate - President Robert Mugabe - and some said they were coerced, fearing punishment or even death unless they could produce a finger colored by red ink as evidence they had cast their ballot. But even so, participation at many locations was sparse, a contrast to the long lines of people who voted in the March 29 election that, by the official count, had Mr. Mugabe’s opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, ahead by 48 percent to 43 percent.

Zimbabweans Refuse to Vote - Weston and Thornycroft, Daily Telegraph of London

President Robert Mugabe faces humiliation as hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans defied intimidation and refused to vote in his unopposed re-election. Despite threats from Mr Mugabe's thugs to beat those who refused to vote, many polling stations in the capital Harare had not seen a single ballot cast three hours after opening. Others remained virtually empty and many of those who did vote simply spoiled their ballot papers.

Presidential Election a Farce - Los Angeles Times

"What is going on in Zimbabwe is simply unacceptable in the 21st century and cannot be ignored by the international community," said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Observers at various polling stations said voter turnout was low. Results were expected late Saturday. Much of Zimbabwe's population is fed up with the country's economic collapse, hyperinflation and 80% unemployment, as well as the Mugabe government's strong-arm tactics. A sweeping mood for change saw Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in March 29 elections, and Tsvangirai best Mugabe in the presidential race then, with about 48% of the vote compared with about 43%, according to official figures.

Sharm Offensive - Times of London editorial

Before Robert Mugabe voted yesterday, his enforcers had guaranteed him a victory of sorts by murdering at least 90 people in his name. They burned a six year-old boy alive in his home, along with his pregnant mother. Another woman was found horribly dismembered in her kitchen. Her crime: to have been married to an opposition councillor. Ten thousand people have been injured. Two hundred thousand have been displaced. The repugnant image of Zimbabwe's dictator casting a ballot in his one-candidate re-election insults the memory of his victims. It compounds the suffering of their families and challenges the whole of Africa to condemn him out of hand at last, to isolate him and to end his country's nightmare by hastening his departure from power.

Bravery in Zimbabwe - Daily Telegraph of London editorial

For all our preoccupations with rising fuel prices, higher food costs and those niggling actions of Government that infuriate and frustrate, we should never lose sight of the fact that in some countries politics are literally a matter of life and death. In Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe demanded that the people of that benighted country should take part in a sham election so that he could claim a false mandate. His thugs murdered his political opponents and then sought to intimidate voters into turning up at the polls to vote for the tyrant. Who would blame them if they did? Would any of us in our comfortable western homes stand up to the bullies if we knew they would seek retribution against those who did not vote?

Is Mugabe the Real Problem? - Matthew Parris, Times of London opinion

In politics as in our personal lives, just six words comprise one of the commonest falsehoods around. Those six words are: “It can't go on like this.” But it can. I've come to the melancholy conclusion that in Zimbabwe it must. This weekend there will be voices in our Prime Minister's ear suggesting how in one bound he might cast off his dithering reputation. To help to broker the toppling of Robert Mugabe (they will whisper) might be just the sort of history-making that rescued Margaret Thatcher from doldrums at home, before Galtieri invaded the Falklands. In The Times this week Lord (Paddy) Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon suggested that intervention may become necessary. Mr Brown will think hard about this; list the pros; list the cons; dither; and finally decide it's all too difficult.

Zimbabwe’s Tipping Point? - Roger Bate, National Review opinion

As I write, a few Zimbabweans are at the polls, some brought forcibly, to vote in a meaningless election with only one candidate, dictator Robert Mugabe. Mugabe’s party, ZANU PF, is vainly keeping up the pretence that democracy exists in Zimbabwe — a fiction that not even neighboring states are still willing to believe. The normally vacillating UN has condemned Mugabe’s attempts to rig another election now that Zimbabwe’s trading partners, Russia and China, have been persuaded to add their voices; the Mugabe regime probably only has weeks left.

Leftists to Blame - Simon Heffer, Daily Telegraph of London opinion

A few years ago, when the tyrant of Zimbabwe was moving from being wicked to being downright evil, I wrote that we should invade Harare, depose him, and supervise free elections. Invited to appear on a BBC programme to defend this stance, I was assailed by an "Africa expert" who told me that diplomatic pressure on Mugabe was bound to work, that the idea of sending the Parachute Regiment in to sort the monster out was offensively colonialist, and that I was wrong. White liberals like him are as much to blame for the terror, starvation, brutality and genocide that now scar this once-rich and stable country. The supposedly civilised world has allowed Mugabe and his horrors to happen, mainly unchecked. Sanctions on his country merely starve those who disagree with him. Zimbabwe has all the natural, and had all the human, resources to be an example to the rest of Africa. It is now merely a symbol of what happens when a dictator takes charge, and those who might rein him in simply look away.

Justice Off Course In Darfur - Flint and de Waal, Washington Post opinion

Is the International Criminal Court losing its way in Darfur? We fear it is. Chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo's approach is fraught with risk -- for the victims of the atrocities in Darfur, for the prospects for peace in Sudan and for the prosecution itself. We are worried by two aspects of Ocampo's approach, as presented to the UN Security Council early this month. One concerns fact: Sudan's government has committed heinous crimes, but Ocampo's comparison of it with Nazi Germany is an exaggeration. The other concerns political consequences: Indicting a senior government figure would be an immense symbolic victory for Darfurians. But Darfur residents need peace, security and deliverable justice more than they need a moment of jubilation. And with President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his men still in power, a high-level indictment would probably damage all these objectives.

Governance Drives Crisis - Thompson Ayodele, Washington Times opinion

Food prices have skyrocketed internationally. In my own Nigeria, rice has epitomized the crisis after doubling in price since last year. Riots around the world over food supplies are prompting panicked governments to find solutions to stem the crisis. Whether they will bring about an abundance of food is debatable. Nigeria, for example, is considering increasing rice imports and disbursing loans to domestic rice processors. While this might provide brief improvement, it will not prevent future shortages or ensure food abundance. Promotion and management of food imports in Nigeria in the past has bred abuse - so much so that the primary result is no longer the protection of local food producers. Such actions do show the economic folly of allowing government to manage what private individuals could do better.

AMERICAS

Anti-Drug Assistance Approved - Manuel Roig-Franzia, Washington Post

A US plan to provide Mexico with a major anti-drug aid package has received congressional approval, following months of negotiations in which Mexico proved itself to be a far more assertive neighbor than in the past, according to current and former high-ranking officials in both nations. The US Senate approved the aid -- known as the Merida Initiative -- late Thursday after stripping conditions that Mexican officials said would have infringed on their sovereignty, particularly on the issue of human rights. The measure includes $400 million for Mexico -- the bulk of which would be spent on equipment and training -- and $65 million for Central American nations.

Mexico Accepts Anti-Narcotics Aid - Marc Lacey, New York Times

With a deadly drug war spreading around the country, beleaguered Mexican officials on Friday welcomed $400 million in anti-narcotics assistance in a bill that was given final Congressional approval in Washington on Thursday night. The White House said that President Bush would sign the bill, though lawmakers had trimmed $100 million from his request. The aid package, which will send helicopters, drug-sniffing dogs and technical help to Mexico, came dangerously close to falling apart.

6 Mexico Police Officers Killed - Tracy Wilkinson, Los Angeles Times

Mexico's raging drug war claimed the lives of six more police officers, ambushed on patrol in the marijuana-rich state of Sinaloa, authorities said Friday. The attack followed the slaying Thursday of a senior police commander, part of a long string of killings apparently aimed at eroding public confidence in the government's ability to challenge drug gangs. The six officers were killed when two carloads of heavily armed men cut off their vehicle in the Sinaloa capital of Culiacan, an official with the state attorney general's office said by e-mail. More than 4,400 people have been killed in drug violence in Mexico, among them hundreds of police officers, since President Felipe Calderon launched an all-out offensive against drug cartels after taking office in December 2006.

A Populist Future for Mexico? - Georgie Anne Geyer, Washington Times opinon

The Iraq story makes the papers about once a day, although ever more unenthusiastically for the American reader. Afghanistan edges into newsprint occasionally. But our own hemisphere? Or our important, long-suffering neighbor, Mexico? There the coverage is even worse. The only stories you read about Mexico these days are of the bitter gang and drug killings along the Mexican-American border. More than 4,000 people, including some 450 members of the police, have been murdered in drug-related violence since the conservative President Felipe Calderon took over a year and a half ago.

Venezuela Supplies Britain's Cocaine - David Blair, Daily Telegraph of London

President Hugo Chavez's Venezuela has become the key trafficking route for most of the cocaine sold on Britain's streets, anti-drugs officials believe. Last year, about 250 tons of cocaine are thought to have passed through Venezuela - up to a five-fold increase on 2004. Much of this ended up in Britain. Anti-drugs officials estimate that more than 50 per cent of all the cocaine consumed in Britain has been trafficked through Venezuela - under the "revolutionary" regime of Mr Chavez. The figure could be as high as two thirds.

Uribe Calls for Referendum on '06 Reelection - Juan Forero, Washington Post

Colombia's Supreme Court on Thursday questioned the legitimacy of President Álvaro Uribe's reelection in 2006, prompting Uribe to call on Congress to enable a new presidential election that could ultimately extend his stay in office. The president's decision to seek a referendum on whether to hold a rerun of the 2006 election plunged the South American country into what the largest newspaper, El Tiempo, called "confusion and uncertainty" yesterday. Some analysts said it appeared that Uribe saw the plebiscite as a way to gain popular support and propel efforts by his supporters, who would like him to run for a third term, which is not permitted under the current constitution.

Uribe Seeks Replay Of ’06 Vote - Simon Romero, New York Times

Faced with an intensifying corruption scandal involving his re-election to a second term in 2006, President Álvaro Uribe of Colombia threw the country’s political establishment into turmoil on Thursday night by calling for the vote to be held again. The move opened Mr. Uribe to accusations that he was seeking to extend his stay in office beyond 2010, when his term expires. His political supporters had already been trying in recent months to amend the Constitution to allow him to run for a third term.

Which Way, Argentina? - Washington Times editorial

The economy is spiraling out of control due to the foolhardiness and intransigence of its current leader, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Argentina has strong commercial ties with America. It is also a major non-NATO US ally in South America: the nation's stability is vital to American counterterrorism, counternarcotics and nonproliferation efforts. Mrs. Kirchner came to power in December, following four years of rule by her husband, Nestor. She sailed to victory on the promise that she would continue Argentina's stellar economic performance. Since then, Argentina has been in turmoil.

ASIA PACIFIC

N. Korea Destroys Cooling Tower - Harden and Kim, Washington Post

North Korea dynamited the dirty gray cooling tower at its deactivated Yongbyon nuclear facility on Friday, a made-for-TV event intended to show the United States and the world that it is serious about abandoning its nuclear weapons program. After a loud explosive charge, the 60-foot tower imploded within seconds, melting into a thick white cloud of smoke and dust. The late afternoon demolition was filmed by television news crews invited from the five countries that for years have been pressing Kim Jong Il's totalitarian state to back away from nuclear confrontation.

North Korea Destroys Tower - Choe Sang-Hun, New York Times

In a gesture demonstrating its commitment to halt its nuclear weapons program, North Korea blew up the most prominent symbol of its plutonium production Friday. The 60-foot cooling tower at the North’s main nuclear power plant collapsed in a heap of shattered concrete and twisted steel, filmed by international and regional television broadcasters invited to witness the event. The tower is a technically insignificant structure, relatively easy to rebuild.

N. Korea puts on Demolition Show - Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times

With a flash of explosives, North Korea on Friday demolished the cooling tower for its main nuclear reactor, the concrete shell vanishing into a cloud of smoke and dust aimed at showing that the authoritarian country is sincere about dismantling its nuclear weapons program. Televising the demolition of the conical 60-foot-tall tower had been suggested by North Korea, whose leader, Kim Jong Il, is a cinema buff famous for his flare for the theatrical. It came a day after President Bush met a North Korean declaration about its nuclear program with an announcement that he would remove the Pyongyang government from the State Department's list of terrorism sponsors and lift other sanctions.

N. Korea’s Intent Unclear - Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times

International television crews were invited to reclusive North Korea on Friday to witness the destruction of the cooling tower at the country’s main nuclear weapons plant. Viewers around the world later watched the most visible symbol of the North’s nuclear ambitions collapse in a cloud of shattered concrete. In North Korea itself, however, the explosion was a nonevent. The state news agency carried no information about it on Friday, and the images had not found their way onto state television.

A Cooling Tower Crumbles - Washington Post editorial

The 60-foot-high cooling tower at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear reactor came tumbling down in a cloud of dust yesterday, producing a television picture that US officials have been seeking for more than two years. The dramatic image was meant to convey the tangible results of a protracted and torturous diplomatic campaign to eliminate North Korea's nuclear weapons program and signal its irreversibility. In that sense there is less than met the eye. Yongbyon's shutdown is indisputably a positive development, and one that a US-led coalition achieved at relatively modest cost. No longer will the facility add to a North Korean plutonium stockpile that already contained the raw material for at least eight bombs -- though the plant has not yet been dismantled beyond repair. Still, the goal of disarming North Korea, far from becoming inevitable, remains distant -- and the regime's repeated evasions, lies and failures to fulfill its promises strongly suggest that it has no intention of giving up its arms.

Kim Smiles - National Review editorial

Let’s say you were Kim Jong Il, and your goal were to stay in power. Suppose, further, that you wished to continue clandestine proliferation activities, knowing that possession of atomic weapons shielded you from attack, and that the sale of ballistic missiles and nuclear technologies to your allies Iran and Syria helped undermine the power and leverage of your enemy, the United States. Imagine that, and you should also imagine yourself a happy man today.

Bad Deal - Frank Gaffney Jr., National Review opinion

President George W. Bush Thursday formally abandoned the last vestiges of a once-robust policy towards a North Korean regime he had rightly said he “loathed.” Worse yet, he is doing so in the face of Pyongyang’s manifest contempt exhibited through, among other things, its serial refusal even to provide promised data about the status and disposition of its nuclear arsenal, let alone to eliminate it.

Past Echoesin Jakarta's Mini-chaos - Stephen Fitzpatrick, The Australian

Ten years ago, Jakarta was convulsed with riots; the city's old Chinatown burned and the wealthiest Chinese fled. Protesting students were shot dead in still-unexplained circumstances and even more were abducted. Their whereabouts a decade later remains a mystery. Indonesia stuttered through a dreamlike period of kingly abdication: the zaman edan, or time of madness, supposedly foretold by the 19th-century Javanese courtly poet Ronggowarsito. There have always been allegations, but little direct proof, of agents provocateur in 1998, of a power struggle behind the scenes. A decade on, and the more things change, the more it seems they remain the same. The old dictator, Suharto, is gone and there is a broadly democratic system in place; the reformist President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is overseeing progress, albeit at a grindingly slow rate.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel: More Cracks in Truce - Associated Press

Israel refused to fully open crossings with the Gaza Strip, and Palestinian militants attacked Israel with artillery, further testing a fragile truce. Israel prevented food trucks from entering Gaza for the third consecutive day, in retaliation for repeated Palestinian rocket attacks, a spokesman for the Israeli Army said.

Gaza's Tunnel Smugglers - Paul Martin, Times of London

The “eye” of the tunnel was a small, square hole sunk between shiny kitchen tiles in an abandoned house in the Gaza Strip. To get in was a matter of grabbing hold of a rope emerging from the darkness and jumping into the opening. Twenty five feet below the ground a narrow passageway, barely 3ft wide, stretched half a mile under the border into Egypt.

No Clear-cut Answers about POWs - Uri Dromi, Miami Herald opinion

In the summer of 2006, two Israeli soldiers -- Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser -- were abducted by Hezbollah. Israel reacted by launching a war against this Lebanon-based terrorist organization. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared then that one of the main war aims was to return the two soldiers back home. The war ended, and almost two years have passed, and the two soldiers are still in enemy hands. A third soldier, Gilad Shalit, was abducted by Hamas in Gaza about the same time. He is alive, his family has just received a brief letter from him. Hamas is demanding that Israel free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange of his release. As for Regev and Goldwasser, we are not sure. The jeep they had been driving was hit so badly, almost burned down in the attack, and the scenes of the charred remains of the vehicle left little hope that the two soldiers had survived. Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, in the most cynical and vicious way, refused to give any hint about their fate.

SOUTH ASIA

Land Transfer Inflames Kashmir’s Muslims - Associated Press

Tens of thousands of Muslim demonstrators filled the streets in Indian-controlled Kashmir on Friday, burning flags and effigies of Indian leaders on a fifth day of protests against the transfer of land to a Hindu shrine. Protesters clashed with riot police officers in several parts of Srinagar, the main city in the region, which has a Muslim majority. The police responded with tear gas, said Prabhakar Tripathi, a spokesman for the Central Reserve Police Force.

Pakistan Needs an Effective Legal System - Berkman and Fay, LA Times opinion

The American public does not, for the most part, see its lawyers as heroes. Not so in Pakistan, a country where the basic institutions that create the rule of law barely function, even during the intermittent periods when civilian leaders manage to wrest some power from the military. So when we joined the "long march" to Islamabad in support of the rule of law this month and watched massive crowds cheering and filling the air with rose petals as they thronged a procession of lawyers, we made sure we took pictures. We hope Washington took notice as well, because the United States remains deeply misguided in not backing these lawyers during this crucial and fragile moment in Pakistani history.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

22 July - Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare (Public Event). Washington, DC. The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) is sponsoring a discussion on counterinsurgency on 22 July 2008, at the National Press Club (the Holeman Lounge), Washington, DC. Dr. John Nagl (Center for a New American Security), Dr. Daniel Marston (Australian National University), and Dr. Carter Malkasian (CNA) recently collaborated on Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare (Osprey, 2008), an edited book that examines 13 of the most important counterinsurgency campaigns of the past 100 years, including the current Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. Dr. David Kilcullen (U.S. State Department), the renowned counterinsurgency expert, will moderate the discussion and provide critical commentary. Lunch will be provided. Books will be available to purchase at a discounted rate. For more information, visit the first link above. RSVP at kattm@cna.org or 703.824.2436.

11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.

11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.