IRAQ

Klein and Sullivan - Max Boot, Contentions

The same is true, whether Klein or Sullivan concede it or not, in the case of Iraq. The occupation of Iraq is over. Iraq has a sovereign government that, if it so desires, could tell us to get lost, and we would do it. At the moment the Iraqi government is giving us a hard time over the terms of future American commitment, but there is no denying that the government of Iraq does want and need an American troop commitment for the foreseeable future. Granted, the enemies that Iraq faces aren’t as formidable as the enemies that West Germany faced for so many decades, but Al Qaeda, Iran, and its various proxies are dangerous enough, and Iraq isn’t nearly as strong as West Germany was. In fact, Iraq is just now starting to recover from the early stages of a civil war–a civil war that would still be consuming countless lives if Sullivan and Klein had had their way and the surge (and related strategy changes) had never occurred. Notwithstanding the surge’s success (which I am glad to see Klein is willing to concede), it will take many, many years before Iraq is strong enough to completely control its own territory without any outside help.

More on Klein - Max Boot, Contentions

Joe Klein, for his part, “happily acknowledge[s]” that he “was wrong about the surge” but concludes that “what we’re talking about here is whipped cream on a pile of fertilizer–a regional policy unprecedented in its stupidity and squalor.” His recommendation? “But go we must, in an orderly fashion, the sooner the better–this war is simply too expensive and too exhausting for our military. And it is currently drawing crucial resources from the more important war in Afghanistan.” (For a critique of another part of Klein’s article, see Jennifer Rubin’s post.) Heads I win, tails you lose: Nothing on the ground in Iraq–neither success or failure–can change these pundits’ pre-determined recommendations. Talk about a faith-based policy.

Iraq: Better. Not Peaceful - David Wood, Military Watch

Three Marines were killed in a suicide bombing this afternoon in Iraq's Anbar Province, about 20 miles west of Baghdad, where a group of Sunni sheikhs were gathered for a meeting with US officials. The Marines' names were not released by the US command in western Iraq. Our prayers are with their families as they receive this awful news. This is a dreary and depressing pattern I've seen from Northern Ireland to Haiti to the West Bank and Gaza and other bitter conflicts. Cease-fires and stability are hard-won -- and so easily disrupted by violence.

Quickly, Carefully, and Generously - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

I just got off a conference call launching a new report from the Commonwealth Institute: "Quickly, Carefully, and Generously: The Necessary Steps for a Responsible Withdrawal from Iraq." Rather than advocate for withdrawal, the report lays out a series of practical steps which would help to reduce the risks associated with the withdrawal of US forces while increasing the chances for a positive outcome. Where most reports like this begin with (and often end with) security and military issues, this one prioritizes political and economic considerations with a heavy focus on international involvement and high levels of economic support for Iraqis even after withdrawal.

The GAO Strikes Back - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama

Over the weekend, Dr. iRack provided a “balance sheet” or sorts on security and political progress in Iraq, pointing to gains, caveats, and near-term dangers. Now comes a new GAO progress report on “Securing, Stabilizing, and Rebuilding Iraq.” The report confirms what we’ve been talking about here at AM for awhile: there have been meaningful security gains during the course of the surge, but progress on the political and governance fronts still lag.

A Blast Hits Close to Home - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

On Sunday, a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest attacked a group of mostly Iraqi civilians outside the provincial Governance Center complex in downtown Baqubah, the volatile capital of Iraq's Diyala province... Despite this deadly day, we can still say with certainty that security has improved in Iraq, even in its worst areas like Diyala. But towards what end? And how long must we stay? How will we know when we can hand the mission over to the Iraqi government and its security forces? And how does our perseverance connect with America's interests? Is there a tipping point at which it makes more sense to go than to stay -- and is it possible that we've already passed that point? These are some of the questions I'm struggling with today.

Mahdi Army Decimated - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The Mahdi Army has suffered a significant blow during fighting against Iraqi and Coalition forces this year, according to an Iraq intelligence report. The heavy casualties sustained by the Mahdi Army have forced Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army and the Sadrist political movement, to change his tactics and disband the Mahdi Army in favor of a small, secretive fighting force.

Sure Sign of COIN Success - Tom Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett

Outside oil companies starting to show up in places beyond Kurdistan. Now the economic connectivity gets far more real. The question is how to broaden the social impact.

PRTs, ePRTs and the Holistic Approach - John Matel, DIPNOTE

You cannot win a modern war by military means alone. COIN Manual says that some of the best weapons do not shoot. By the way, the COIN Manual is itself a great example of the flexible strategy it advocates. It is a living document, almost a wiki. As new experience is analyzed and digested, it changes and evolves. Military units have long had Civil Affairs (CA) teams and Commanders' Emergency Response Funds (CERP). These improved conditions for Iraqis and certainly saved many lives. Building on this success and experience in Afghanistan, in November 2005, Secretary of State Rice established Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in Iraq. In January 2007, President Bush announced the establishment of embedded PRTs, who work directly with military units such as Regimental Combat Teams.

US Names al Qaeda Emir - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The US military has identified al Qaeda's leader of Mosul who was killed during a targeted raid in the northern city on June 24. Multinational Forces Iraq named Abu Khalaf as al Qaeda's emir, or leader, of Mosul who was killed during a raid by Task Force 88, the hunter-killer teams assigned to disrupt terrorist command networks in Iraq and elsewhere. Khalaf was killed by US forces as he reached for a gun and his associate attempted to detonate his vest.

Meanwhile, Back on Earth - Abe Greenwald, Contentions

Amid the insanity that has become the status of forces debate, Foud Ajami brings much-needed clarity to the discussion of a continued military presence in Iraq.

Micro-Managing the War by E-mail - Noah Shachtman, Danger Room

... This continued for two more days. And it lead Boudreau to conclude that a military network's real weak point isn't storage capacity, or bandwidth. "There is a limit to how much a soldier on the ground can convey with the pressures of time, heat, exhaustion, and possibly enemy fire bearing down," he writes. "Consequently, any tactical picture formed in remote command posts can't help but obscure the nuances of the peculiar scenarios that patrolling soldiers face on the ground."

AFGHANISTAN

Can NATO Get Serious About Afghanistan? - Troy, Abu Muqawama

Crises, real or perceived, have plagued the Atlantic Alliance virtually since its inception. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Robert Hunter used to joke that he asked his staff to make up a rubber stamp that read, "At this critical moment in the history of the Atlantic Alliance," because he was constantly starting his cables from Brussels with the phrase. Nevertheless, Troy gets the sense that events are (slowly) coming to a head within NATO over Afghanistan.

Afghanistan, Marines and Foreign Aid - David Wood, Military Watch

In Afghanistan with the Marines this spring, I'd occasionally look up and wonder, Where the heck's the rest of the United States government? That seems to be on the minds of the 1st Battalion, 6th Marines in southern Helmand Province as well. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that blasting the insurgents out of a 10th-century place like southern Afghanistan's Garmsir is the beginning of the process, not the end. A strong and stable Afghanistan needs a lot of development help, to enable Afghans to seize hold of their own opportunities in ways that aren't threatening to the rest of the world. That's also the key to bringing US troops home from Afghanistan and keeping them home because we've helped to build something solid and lasting there.

Combat Action Around Kandahar - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

Colonel Tom McGrath recently met with bloggers to discuss the recent events surrounding the prison break in Kandahar and subsequent combat that occurred in the villages around Kandahar. A number of interesting exchanges took place.

Afghanistan, a Work in Progress - Daniel Bell, Blackfive

Although Afghanistan continues to see difficult times, many positive developments take place each day. The ministries are working more closely with the United States in developing their economy, the Afghan National Army is taking on additional responsibilities as it grows stronger, and the government continues to work toward self sustainment. While deployed in Afghanistan in 2005 and 2006, I was certainly aware that conditions in the region were troublesome. Yet the development and relations in Afghanistan had not reached their current point of progress. In the past several years, the United States has focused its fight on terror in Iraq. Now, after the Surge and victories in Iraq, the focus seems to be shifting back to Operation Enduring Freedom - Afghanistan.

Images from Afghanistan #3 - Will Hartley, Insurgency Research Group

The Times has published a gallery of photos chronicling the recent ANA / NATO offensive to clear Taliban forces from the Arghandab district in Kandahar province, which had been taken by the Taliban following a successful operation to free several hundred captured insurgents from Kandahar prison.

IRAN

ElBaradei's New Brief, Same as His Old Brief - Steve Schippert, The Tank

The buzz circulating now is that IAEA Director Mohammed ElBaradei said on al-Arabiya that Iran could be months away from producing a nuclear weapon, as noted by AllahPundit at Hot Air and Jeff Stein at Congressional Quarterly. Hot Air actually nails it in interpreting that ElBaradei is not so much making a statement about the state of the Iranian nuclear-weapons program as he is projecting himself and the IAEA as the world's only line of defense against a nuclear-armed Iran. Frankly, there is no substantiative historical reason to place faith in such a claim.

THE LONG WAR

Released Guantanamo Detainee... - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

Al Qaeda in Iraq, through its puppet organization the Islamic State of Iraq, released its latest propaganda video on June 23. The video contains a montage of attacks throughout Iraq, and features two Kuwaiti al Qaeda operatives who conducted strikes in Mosul. One of the operatives was released from the US military prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The Islamic State of Iraq used footage taken at Combat Outpost Inman by this reporter in Mosul in March of this year.

Saudis' Distribution of Propaganda - Andrew Cochran, Counterterrorism

The controversy surrounding the Islamic Saudi Academy of Virginia continues to grow. Rep. Frank Wolf, the ranking Republican of the appropriations subcommittee with jurisdiction over the State Department, wrote Secretary of State Rice (Acrobat file of the letter) to express his serious concern. "It is well known that Saudi Arabia promotes the radical Wahhabi interpretation of Islam within its own borders and has financed radical clerics abroad.

Al-Qaeda’s Propaganda Machine - Stephen Tankel, Kings of War

Craig Whitlock followed up his excellent piece on the failings of al-Hurra with a look at al-Qaeda’s own Internet propaganda abilities. Excerpts are below under bolded headings, along with a few of my own niggling comments. The piece, which is worth reading in its entirety, is here.

A New USIA? - Matt Armstrong, MountainRunner

Anyone else find it fun to read questions about recreating USIA in Defense Department forums? They happen at State (I asked Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy Chairman Bill Hybl about it -- I couldn’t help myself), but it is so obvious at Defense and seemingly there’s more enthusiasm for it there as well.

Dangerous Times in Colombia and Iraq - Douglas Farah, Counterterrorism

Among the most dangerous times in a counter-insurgency campaign, inherent in asymmetrical warfare, is when the insurgency is close to being defeated. Desperate to remain relevant and to motivate its followers as the situation becomes more trying, the groups grasp for a spectacular action that will give it a new lease on life.

Al-Qaeda: History and Future - Londonstani, Abu Muqawama

Londonstani is struggling to decide whether he really likes this long article on al-Qaeda by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank in the Independent... It doesn't take into account what's happening on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, whether the group is shifting tactics, evolving or changing focus. At least one new development that makes Londonstani think it's too soon to consign AQ to history are new reports that suggest its ideas and rhetoric are spreading to a new "self radicalising" audience in the West.

Thoughts on Countering Online Radicalisation - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

Without an audience there is no terrorism. This adage strongly informs modern terrorism studies. Many analysts suggest that dead people do not matter so much to the terrorist as those that remain alive, those who witness, or to whom are reported, the violent acts that constitute the raison d’être of the terrorist. In the modern global media environment the potential audiences for spectacular and theatrical acts of terror are enormous, and the channels for propagation many. It is no coincidence that the propaganda of the deed has evolved alongside communications advances of the last few hundred years: the mass printed word, the telegraph, telephone, radio and television. As with the technologies themselves, the networks that connect people have become more widespread, complex and ubiquitous.

Whistling Past the Graveyard - Kip, Abu Muqawama

Generally, the NY Times doesn't take its cues from the Daily Show, but in this case it can be excused. In one foul swoop, Jon Stewart devotes as much time discussing war coverage on his comedy news show as CBS news has spent covering Afghanistan on its supposedly real news show this year according to a NY Times' article this past Monday.

COUNTERINSURGENCY

Defeating IEDs and Bombs - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

Jcustis of the Small Wars Council recently started a SWC discussion thread that should have gotten more attention than it did. He linked a previously unknown (to the SWC) Wikipedia entry on suicide bombings in Iraq since 2003.

US FOREIGN POLICY

Benign-Neglect Diplomacy - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

What I'm hearing through the grapevine is that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan required so much attention from senior decision makers that it allowed career diplomats and junior political appointees to do their work in East Asia. In essence, the six-party talks needed less attention to work well, so that diplomats and national leaders could get down to business without all of the posturing that goes along with highly public diplomacy. This may or may not be true, but it's an interesting view of how diplomacy can work. I look forward to learning the full story.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Army Looks to Save Its 'Future' (Updated) - Sharon Weinberger, Danger Room

With budget tights and tolerance for high-price technology programs growing thin, the Army today is announcing plans to revamp its massive $200 billion modernization effort, called the Future Combat Systems. Like the program itself, the changes are confusing, but appear to consist of plans to accelerate those technologies the Army thinks are most needed in the field and are moving along quickly, like drones, while pushing back those weapons more suited for major military conflict.

AFRICA

What if Nobody Recognized Mugabe? - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club

Robert who? The New Republic and Paul Wolfowitz have come up with the same idea. James Kirchick at the New Republic argues that Robert Mugabe is only President of Zimbabwe because we believe him. But if we don’t, then what’s he going to do?

AMERICAS

South of the Border - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club

A working example of the alliance between Left wing causes and Islamism is the relationship between Hugo Chavez and Hezbollah. When the US Treasury Department added two Venezuelans of Middle Eastern origin to the list of specially designated global terrorists, Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez immediately denounced it as the opening attempt to bring him before an international court. “Chavez says the United States is using accusations that the Venezuelan government is supporting the Lebanese group Hezbollah to ’see if the world will make a move’ against him.”

ASIA PACIFIC

N. Korea Deal: Grand Strategy or Vanity? - Westhawk, Westhawk

Today, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice explained a new deal between the U.S. and North Korean governments. The North Koreans delivered a (still unverified) declaration of their plutonium-based nuclear activities to the U.S. and other representatives in the Six-Party Talks. In exchange, the U.S. has removed North Korea from the U.S.’s terrorism list, opening up the possibility of trade in the months ahead. Did President Bush and Secretary Rice push through this deal in order to obtain leverage with China? Or is it merely vanity on their part, the need to show something for the history books before they leave office?

N. Korea Nukes Breakthrough - James Joyner, Outside the Beltway

The news over the past 48 hours or so about movement in solving the nuclear arms standoff with North Korean has been stunning. Not only is President Bush taking the DPRK off the “state sponsors of terrorism” list but the Kim government has taken major steps to dismantle their program and provide with stringent verification regimes. The administration fully admits that it is well short of achieving all its goals and that much more work needs to be done. Still, the world is a bit safer today and, more significantly, this shows the way for similar rapprochement with Iran.

Caution Toward Jemaah Islamiyah - Kenneth Conboy, Counterterrorism

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute issued a report on Wednesday which noted that Jemaah Islamiyah continues to pose a "significant threat to both Australian and regional security interests." The report claimed that the group had splintered between a fanatical hardcore and a less extreme wing, but could still muster 900 militants.

MIDDLE EAST

GP: The MB in Saudi Arabia - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

Last week I wrote about an interesting piece by Mohanna Hubayl on the state of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Gulf. I was curious about the accuracy of his descriptions, and asked some colleagues for their take. I got some informal thoughts on the subject from Thomas Hegghammer, one of the best young(ish) scholars working on Saudi Islamism. Recall that I summarized Hubayl's brief comments on Saudi Arabia like this: "the MB peacefully and voluntarily liquidated itself, he claims. The main pillars of MB thought remain but many of its former members have moved to the conservative salafi trend."

IAEA In Syria - Steve Schippert, Threats Watch

Once again, the IAEA lags far behind the operational curve. And once again, a recalcitrant state is prepared to drag ‘process’ to its outer limits to forestall and potentially avoid consequence. The frustrating process is unfolding before your eyes. And the Syrians, North Koreans and Iranians are smiling at our reluctance.

RECOMMENDED READING

Five Good Reads - War Edition - Galrahn, Information Dissemination

Five good reads from a great read.

Wednesday Reading List - Galrahn, Information Dissemination

More.

UK CT & COIN Features - 25 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group

A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.

UK CT & COIN Features - 24 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group

A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.

KeepNet 26 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

More shrapnel from blogospheric steel [h/t The Hedge].

Iraq News (26 June) - LT Nixon Rants

The good, bad, and the ugly.