IRAQ

America and the Emerging Iraqi Reality - Ellen Laipson, The Century Foundation

It is time for a new policy in Iraq, to recalibrate America’s equities and engagement there. The current administration is tied to its policy, knowing that the president’s historic legacy will be based on the outcome in Iraq, and hoping that current positive trends can be turned into more permanent conditions. But the American people and their political leaders need to be thinking more boldly about a new horizon: Where do we want US-Iraq relations to be in five years? Can the United States and Iraq enjoy a friendly relationship without such a deep commitment of American forces and resources? Where does Iraq fit in America’s strategic interests and agenda?

Laipson: New Goals, No Illusions - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

Ellen Laipson, head of the Stimson Center and former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council, has just released a Century Foundation report entitled "America and the Emerging Iraqi Reality: New Goals, No Illusions." She tries to look past the current arguments and uncertainties and focus on more fundamental strategic questions: "where do we want U.S.-Iraq relations to be in five years? ... Where does Iraq fit in America's strategic interests and agenda?" Her core argument is that the US needs to end the exceptional nature of its role in Iraq and conceive of a more 'normal' relationship.

Iraqis Condemn American Demands - Paley and DeYoung, Washington Post

High-level negotiations over the future role of the US military in Iraq have turned into an increasingly acrimonious public debate, with Iraqi politicians denouncing what they say are US demands to maintain nearly 60 bases in their country indefinitely. Top Iraqi officials are calling for a radical reduction of the US military's role here after the UN mandate authorizing its presence expires at the end of this year. Encouraged by recent Iraqi military successes, government officials have said that the United States should agree to confine American troops to military bases unless the Iraqis ask for their assistance, with some saying Iraq might be better off without them.

Security Pact Can be Finalized in July - Bushra Juhi, Associated Press

The US State Department's top Iraq adviser said Tuesday he believes an agreement to establish a long-term security relationship between Iraq and the United States will be completed by the end of July. "We're confident it can be achieved, and by the end of July deadline," David Satterfield told reporters in Baghdad's US-guarded Green Zone. The pact also would provide a legal basis for keeping American troops in Iraq after the UN mandate expires at the end of the year.

US Security Agreements and Iraq - Greg Bruno, CFR

As policymakers and presidential candidates debate the future US presence in Iraq, the Bush administration is negotiating long-term agreements with Iraq's government that could shape legal, economic, cultural, and security relations. US and other multinational forces have been in Iraq since 2003 under a UN Security Council mandate renewed annually. But Iraq's government has requested that the United Nations not renew the mandate again, forcing negotiations on a detailed legal framework for the US presence in the country.

Backgrounder: US Security Agreements and Iraq - Greg Bruno, New York Times

As policymakers and presidential candidates debate the future US presence in Iraq, the Bush administration is negotiating long-term agreements with Iraq's government that could shape legal, economic, cultural, and security relations. US and other multinational forces have been in Iraq since 2003 under a UN Security Council mandate renewed annually. But Iraq's government has requested that the United Nations not renew the mandate again, forcing negotiations on a detailed legal framework for the US presence in the country.

SOFA Update - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama

Dr. iRack has been writing a lot about the ongoing U.S.-Iraq negotiations over the SOFA and the related but separate Strategic Framework Agreement (outlining long-term military, economic, and political ties) in the last week. (For good summaries of the agreements, see here and here). In recent days there have been a lot of important developments on this front.

US Open to More Talks With Iran on Iraq - Adrian Croft, Reuters

The United States is open to holding more talks with Iran about Iraq's security, but it must first be confident that the talks are likely to make progress, a senior US official said on Tuesday. At the same time, David Satterfield, the US State Department's coordinator on Iraq, stepped up a war of words with Tehran over the US troop presence in Iraq, saying "other states" must respect Iraqi sovereignty and not seek to turn Iraq into a battleground for their disputes with the United States. US and Iranian officials met three times last year to seek common ground on stabilizing Iraq in discussions arranged by Baghdad, but the talks have since stalled.

Suicide Recruits Dropping in Iraq - Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times

The United States is seeing a sharp drop in the number of foreigners entering Iraq to become al Qaeda suicide bombers, according to intelligence and Bush administration sources. An administration official and a military adviser to Iraqi commanders attribute the decline to a fairly new phenomenon: Al Qaeda's call for mass killings in the name of Islam is losing some of its appeal with young Arabs in North Africa and Saudi Arabia, where most of the bombers originate. The decline also parallels the battlefield losses al Qaeda has suffered in the past 12 months in Iraq's Anbar province and the greater Baghdad region. This has made it more difficult for al Qaeda in Iraq to facilitate the secret movement of foreigners from the Syrian border to safe houses where they are trained and assigned a target.

Bomb Kills Leader of Saddam Hussein’s Tribe - Andrew Kramer, New York Times

The leader of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s tribe was killed by a bomb on Tuesday, after he had spoken publicly in favor of reconciling with the new government in Baghdad. The tribal leader, Sheik Ali al-Nida, head of the Albu Nasir tribe that dominated the government under Mr. Hussein, was killed by a bomb attached to his car, a police official in the northern Salahuddin Province said. The bomb detonated while he was driving near his home in the village of Ouja, about six miles south of Mr. Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit on the Tigris River. The blast also killed two bodyguards, according to the police official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the assassination.

Head of Saddam Tribe Killed - Nadheer al-Samarrai, Reuters

The head of Saddam Hussein's tribe was killed by a bomb planted on his vehicle north of Baghdad on Tuesday, police said. The blast killed Sheikh Ali al-Neda as he traveled along a highway after leaving his home in the late Iraqi president's hometown of Awja. It was Neda, a member of Iraq's minority Sunni Arab sect, who took possession of Saddam's body for burial after the Iraqi leader was executed in December 2006 for crimes against humanity. Gunmen shot dead Neda's brother in 2006.

Iraq to Conduct General Census - Sameer Yacoub, Associated Press

Iraq's government announced on Tuesday that it will conduct a census next year in an effort to determine the real numbers of the country's religious and ethnic groups. The population count would be the first since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime five years ago and will take place in October 2009, according to a statement by the government's media office. The statement called upon all ministries to work together to organize the census. The last census was conducted in 1997 during Saddam's rule. But the three northern Kurdish provinces were excluded because they were beyond the control of the central government. The 1997 census put the country's population at more than 26 million.

Turkey Warplanes Strike Kurdish Targets - Suzan Fraser, Associated Press

Turkish warplanes attacked Kurdish rebel targets in villages across the border in northern Iraq, an Iraqi border guard said Tuesday. No casualties were reported. Turkey's military has launched several cross-border air raids on suspected Kurdish rebel positions in northern Iraq this year. It also staged a major ground operation against rebel bases there in February. Turkey's military did not immediately confirm the latest airstrikes.

BBC Uncovers Lost Iraq Billions - BBC News

A BBC investigation estimates that around $23bn (£11.75bn) may have been lost, stolen or just not properly accounted for in Iraq. For the first time, the extent to which some private contractors have profited from the conflict and rebuilding has been researched by the BBC's Panorama using US and Iraqi government sources. A US gagging order is preventing discussion of the allegations. The order applies to 70 court cases against some of the top US companies.

Police Conduct Operations in Dhi Qhar - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The Iraqi security forces continue to press operations against the Mahdi Army and the Iranian-built terror networks in southern Iraq. Iraqi police conducted a major sweep in the southern province of Dhi Qhar on June 10, while US and Iraqi forces target Mahdi Army leaders and weapons caches throughout the South.

The Fate of The Worst - Max Boot, Contentions

One of the unheralded heroes of the past year in Iraq is Major General Douglas Stone of the U.S. Marine Corps, who has just ended a stint as commander of detainee operations. His most notable innovation has been to institute “COIN behind the wire” — that is a counterinsurgency program aimed at weaning detainees away from terrorism. It is too soon to tell to what extent this program has succeeded, but early indications are positive. The program is now being put to the test because the U.S. command is reducing the number of detainees in American custody. The total has already dropped from 25,000 to 21,000, as noted in this Washington Post article, yet the amount of violence for the past three weeks has been at its lowest level since early 2004.

General Stone’s Exit Interview - Matt Armstrong, MountainRunner

Very briefly but worth your time watch the video below, at least the first seven minutes. Major General Doug Stone, formerly of Task Force 134, gave an exit interview after turning over command of detainee operations in Iraq. I recommend watching his opening remarks as he speaks directly to the point who the detainees are, their motivation, and how he managed to attain a recidivism rate of... well it is “miniscule” as he noted (only 40 returned out of about 10,000 released).

Sadr's Special Groups - Roggio and Gartenstein-Ross, The Long War Journal

In the past month, Iraqi and coalition forces have succeeded in their fight against the Mahdi Army's "special groups." On May 3, the U.S. military destroyed a special groups command center in Sadr City, killing a wanted leader in the attack. On May 25, Iraqi special operations forces captured a mid-level special groups leader in the al-Shuala area of Baghdad. And on May 31, Iraqi special operations forces captured another special groups "criminal" in Baghdad who was suspected of indirect-fire attacks on coalition forces. The frequency with which the term "special groups" has been thrown around in recent months (stretching back to the fighting in Basrah that flared up in late March) highlights the confusion that exists over what these groups really are.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

Mullen Urges Pakistan to Act on Al-Qaeda - Tyson and Wright, Washington Post

The top US military officer warned yesterday that al-Qaeda leaders operating in Pakistan's tribal areas are planning new terrorist attacks against the United States, making it imperative that Pakistan's new government take action to eliminate their sanctuary there. Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the al-Qaeda threat from Pakistan represents a "huge challenge" for the United States, but said Pakistan has been lacking in its execution of a strategy to eradicate the safe havens for terrorists and insurgents in the lawless region known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Mullen called on Pakistani authorities to enforce any deals they strike with tribal leaders in the FATA and to require not only the expulsion of al-Qaeda but also a halt to the flow of insurgents across the border into Afghanistan. However, Mullen predicted slow progress, citing Pakistan's complex tribal allegiances and sensitivities over sovereignty that have limited US military involvement in the region.

Rumour and Suspicion Threaten Afghan Aid - Jeremy Page, Times of London

When Hamid Karzai swept on to the international stage at a donors' meeting in Tokyo in 2002, he was fêted as the saviour of Afghanistan - the only man who could reunite and rebuild the nation after three decades of war. As Western leaders lauded his political skills, fashion editors gushed over his trademark Uzbek coat and Karakul lambswool hat. Gucci's Tom Ford hailed him as the most chic man in the world. But whatever Mr Karzai says - or wears - when he attends the next donors' meeting, beginning in Paris tomorrow, he is losing some of his lustre in the eyes of Afghans and Western allies alike.

Conference Seeks Cash and Progress - Francois Murphy, Reuters

Donor states, military powers and regional players will be seeking a more effective strategy for Afghanistan's development and security as well as pledging funds at a conference in Paris on Thursday. Afghanistan will ask the ministers and other delegates from around 65 countries to fund a $50 billion five-year development plan, for which donors will demand that Kabul do more to fight corruption in what is one of the world's poorest states.

US Expected to Pledge Some $10 Billion - Arshad Mohammed, Reuters

The United States is expected to pledge about $10 billion in aid for Afghanistan at a donors conference this week, a US official said on Tuesday, less than what the White House had wanted from Congress. The official, who spoke on condition that he not be named because Washington has not yet unveiled its pledge, also said he expected the Paris conference on Thursday to raise more than $15 billion in total pledges, including the U.S. contribution. The US pledge, to be announced by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, will be less than the $11 billion that the Bush administration had hoped to secure from Congress, the US official said.

World Bank Urges Afghan Openness - BBC News

The government in war-torn Afghanistan must be more accountable if it is to rebuild its country and economy, the World Bank has said in a report. It also warned that the country relied on a "second civil service" of foreign consultants who inflated the cost of hiring skilled professionals. The Afghan government is due to ask international donors to fund a $50bn reconstruction plan on Wednesday. But the Bank called for more assurances that aid money would be properly spent.

Suspected US Missile Fired in NW Pakistan - Reuters

A pilotless US drone was suspected to have fired a missile into a Pakistani area on the Afghan border on Tuesday, but there was no word on the target or casualties, a government official said. The missile was thought to have been fired into the Mohmand ethnic Pashtun tribal area in northwest Pakistan where this year, US-controlled Predator aircraft have struck at least four sites used by al Qaeda operatives, killing dozens of suspected militants.

US Strikes Inside Mohmand Tribal Agency - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The US military may have conducted its fifth known strike inside Pakistani territory against the Taliban and al Qaeda bases this year, an unnamed Pakistani official told Reuters. The airstrike is thought to have been carried out inside the Mohmand tribal agency. "There was an attack by a spy plane close to the Afghan border but we don't have information about casualties or damage," the unnamed Pakistani government said. The Pakistani government recently negotiated a peace agreement with the Taliban in Mohmand tribal agency.

Remote Tajik Outpost on Front Line of Drugs War - Maria Golovnina, Reuters

Tajik soldiers squint through the sun and dust at the slowly approaching silhouette of an Afghan truck rumbling across a river bridge. "Documents! What's your cargo?" barks one as the heavily loaded truck pulls over at a control point on the river Panj which separates Tajikistan from Afghanistan. In a trailer nearby, a customs official leafs through papers as Afghan drivers wait outside in the shadow of their trucks. A swallow swoops in and settles in a nest above his head. This desolate outpost, where Russian troops once guarded the Soviet empire's southern frontier, is now on the front line of the global fight against drug trafficking from Afghanistan, the world's biggest heroin producer.

After Marine Mission, Afghan Civilians Gather - David Wood, Military Watch

For the first time in almost three years, Afghans in the town of Garmsir - until recently, a major Taliban stronghold -- were able to gather a few days ago to talk about their future. You can see a portion of the gathering in this photo by Chief Warrant Officer Rene Cote, civil affairs officer for the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which has been fighting for more than a month to clear the town and surrounding area of Taliban extremists. The Marines "are having an enormously positive effect'' in southern Afghanistan, Adm. MIke Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters Tuesday morning. Enabling and sustaining this kind of local participation in self-government is at the heart of US counterinsurgency doctrine. It's going to be a long haul, but this looks like a good start.

Afghanistan and Fighting Insurgents - Bryan, A Major's Perspective

I don't think that anyone would argue that in any counter-insurgency operation the people are the center of gravity that all operations must revolve around. This center point has far reaching implications for the military, the American people, and politicians to understand. In western society, we want to see immediate results. This is further compounded by the fast paced technologically enhanced world that we live in. If my email takes more then 10 seconds to download I'm starting to get angry. But, in a counter-insurgency, everything you do takes time. It is not as simple as just walking into a village, saying love and trust us, we're Americans; that trust must be earned. The steps that we must take, and that these Marines are taking right now, take time. It is time well spent for a lasting victory.

Marines in Helmand IV - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

It’s just not correct to say that the COIN tactics are evolving in Afghanistan. U.S. Army units have been at combat outposts for quite a while, and the Marines are simply conducting well-rehearsed and finely-tuned COIN learned in the school of hard knocks in Anbar. For the most part NATO forces are still conducting force protection at FOBs, with each country’s forces undermanned. As for evolving tactics, there is no comprehensively agreed to strategy or set of tactics or even rules of engagement; there is merely an aggregate of disparate missions and strategies thrown together into a messy brew.

IRAN

Bush, EU Threaten Iran With Sanctions - Dan Eggen, Washington Post

President Bush and European Union leaders threatened Iran on Tuesday with new financial sanctions unless the country curbs its nuclear ambitions and opens facilities to international inspection. Following a two-hour meeting that touched on Iran and a host of issues including climate change and trade, Bush and his European counterparts indicated they were prepared to go beyond current United Nations sanctions to try to ensure Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon. The Islamic republic insists its nuclear research and facilities are solely for peaceful purposes. But at the same time, Tehran has stymied international inspectors from verifying the extent and nature of its program.

European Leaders Back Bush on Iran - Meyers and Cowell, New York Times

Opening a farewell tour of Europe, President Bush won European support on Tuesday to consider additional punitive sanctions against Iran, including restrictions on its banks, if Iran rejects a package of incentives to suspend its uranium enrichment program. Iran has begun transferring billions of dollars from European banks to Iranian and Asian banks, and buying gold and equities, according to Iranian media reports, apparently to protect its windfall oil revenue from any new sanctions. Mr. Bush arrived in Slovenia at the start of a European tour that will take him to Berlin, Rome, Paris, London and Belfast, Northern Ireland. A summit meeting with European Union leaders here was part of an effort to persuade them to adopt a stronger line toward Iran.

Bush Wields Threat of Tougher Sanctions - John Phillips, Washington Times

President Bush on Tuesday threatened harsher sanctions on Iran to prevent the Islamic republic from proceeding on the "incredibly dangerous" path of acquiring nuclear weapons. Speaking in the former Yugoslav nation of Slovenia at the start of his farewell trip to Europe, Mr. Bush dismissed talk of divisions between the hard-line U.S. stance and European plans for a new package of diplomatic and economic incentives if Iran will verifiably halt uranium enrichment.

US and EU Issue New Iran Warning - BBC News

The EU and the US have threatened Iran with further sanctions unless it verifiably suspends nuclear enrichment. The measures were announced after US President George W Bush held talks in Slovenia, during what is expected to be his last official tour of Europe. The "additional measures" would include "steps to ensure Iranian banks cannot... support proliferation and terrorism", said a joint statement.

Bush and Allies Embrace Possible Sanctions - Deb Riechman, Associated Press

President Bush and European allies on Tuesday threatened tougher sanctions to squeeze Iran's finances and derail its potential pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Bush said the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran would endanger world peace. "They can either face isolation, or they can have better relations with all of us," Bush said of Iran's leaders while capping his final European Union-US summit. The president and EU leaders embraced new financial sanctions against Iran unless it verifiably suspends its nuclear enrichment. They said Iran must fully disclose any nuclear weapons work and allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to verify that work.

US Urged to Look Beyond Iran - Hilary Stohs-Krause, Washington Times

With interest in atomic energy soaring throughout the Middle East - prompting fears of a regional nuclear arms race - a leading ally is warning the United States to broaden its nonproliferation efforts beyond Iran. "This didn't start yesterday, and it's not about Iran alone," said Nabil Fahmy, Egypt's ambassador to the United States. "It's a much more complicated and complex issue." "One problem we all face in the Middle East, and worldwide, is there's no real commitment to nuclear disarmament," Mr. Fahmy said at a recent conference sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

Dubious Russian Nuclear Deal - Washington Times editorial

Tomorrow morning, the House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing on a US-Russia nuclear cooperation agreement signed last month in Moscow. The State Department has been touting the accord as a means to win Russian support for peaceful nuclear cooperation with the international community. But absent a verifiable halt to Russian support for Iran's missile and nuclear weapons programs, the deal should be killed. Washington and Moscow have long disagreed on whether Iran should receive atomic assistance. Presidents Clinton and George H.W. Bush declined to negotiate an agreement to permit civil nuclear cooperation with Russia until Moscow ended all nuclear and missile aid to Tehran. During the current President Bush's first term, Washington strongly opposed Russian assistance for Iran's light-water reactor at Bushehr. The Department of Energy estimated that the reactor could produce enough plutonium to build between 50 and 60 nuclear weapons. Washington withheld funding for Russian work on the international space station because of Moscow's support for Tehran's efforts to develop nuclear-capable missiles.

Changing Iran: An Interview with Akbar Ganji - Boston Review

Iranian dissident journalist and author Akbar Ganji recently spoke with Boston Globe Ideas writer Rebecca Tuhus-Dubrow about his life, his political activism, and the future of his homeland. His new book, The Road to Democracy in Iran, was published in April of this year by Boston Review Books.

THE LONG WAR

Elusive Starting Point - Scott Shane, New York Times

In a flurry of oversight that some critics say comes years too late, Congress is pressing Bush administration officials on a still-unanswered question: How did the United States come to embrace harsh interrogation methods it had always shunned? The interrogation techniques themselves have been repeatedly discussed, and administration officials have been forced to explain why waterboarding, a simulated drowning technique of torturers dating back to the Spanish Inquisition, was not torture when used by the CIA.

Dying in Detention - New York Times editorial

The government has a duty to provide decent, effective, timely medical care to people in its custody. That should be beyond debate, but not when the government in question is the Bush administration and the people in custody are illegal immigrants. Recent news reports from The Times, The Washington Post and CBS News have shone a harsh light on the immigration detention system, finding alarming evidence of shoddy care, inadequate staffing, lax standards, secrecy and chronic ineptitude.

Harboring al Qaeda - Thomas Joscelyn, Weekly Standard opinion

The Senate Intelligence Committee has once again released a report claiming that the Bush administration hyped prewar intelligence. The so-called Phase Two report is supposed to investigate the Bush administration's handling of prewar intelligence. In reality, the report is little more than yet another attempt by partisan Democrats to make political hay out of flawed prewar intelligence. (The only Republicans to endorse the report were two of the Senate's most liberal GOP members.) The committee focused exclusively on prewar statements by Bush administration officials, ignoring similar statements by leading Democrats. Therefore, the report is intended to portray the Bush administration in the worst possible light. But even with this bias, the committee came to a noteworthy conclusion: The Bush administration was right to claim that Saddam's regime was harboring al Qaeda members.

The End of Intervention - Madeleine Albright, New York Times opinion

The Burmese government’s criminally neglectful response to last month’s cyclone, and the world’s response to that response, illustrate three grim realities today: totalitarian governments are alive and well; their neighbors are reluctant to pressure them to change; and the notion of national sovereignty as sacred is gaining ground, helped in no small part by the disastrous results of the American invasion of Iraq. Indeed, many of the world’s necessary interventions in the decade before the invasion - in places like Haiti and the Balkans - would seem impossible in today’s climate. The first and most obvious reality is the survival of totalitarian government in an age of global communications and democratic progress. Myanmar’s military junta employs the same set of tools used by the likes of Stalin to crush dissent and monitor the lives of citizens. The needs of the victims of Cyclone Nargis mean nothing to a regime focused solely on preserving its own authority.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

American Civil-Military Relations - US Army, CSPAN

CSPAN Video: A panel discussion was held on civilian-military relations from U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Panelists were Dale Herspring, author of Rumsfeld's Wars; Marybeth Ulrich, author of Democratizing Communist Militaries; Col. Matthew Moten, author of The Delafield Commission and the American Military Profession; and Peter Feaver, author of Armed Servants. Don Snider, co-author of The Future of the Army Profession moderated.

Gates on Support for Air Force - Thom Shanker, New York Times

A senior sergeant complained that the attention to the ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had left the Air Force short of personnel. Veteran pilots pressed for answers about the future of the advanced F-22 fighter, which the Air Force regards as crucial to control of the skies. The questions were asked of Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates by Air Force personnel who were clearly uneasy about the status of their service after the ouster last week of the two top Air Force officials following an inquiry into the mishandling of nuclear weapons or components.

The Boys in Blue - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

Last week, Defense Secretary Robert Gates sacked the Air Force's top leadership. Although he cited breakdowns in nuclear weapons security as the main cause, I've heard a lot of chatter since then about how Gates intended it to serve as a broader message to the Air Force about the need to play team ball. Yesterday, Gates announced his picks to head the embattled air service. He tapped Michael Donley, currently director of the Pentagon's administration and management office, to be Secretary of the Air Force. And he picked General Norton Schwartz, commander of the Air Force's Transportation Command, to be the Air Force's top uniformed officer. What do the choices signify?

Gates Freezes Out Air Force’s ‘Fighter Mafia’ - Westhawk, Westhawk

After firing the US Air Force’s top leadership last week, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has chosen his replacements. With his choices, Mr. Gates delivered the Air Force’s fighter community a scathing rebuke. Officers with careers in transport aircraft, logistics, special operations, bombers, and reconnaissance will now lead the Air Force. Out as Air Force Chief of Staff is General Michael Moseley, who obsession with buying more and more and more short-endurance fighter aircraft was a reflection of his background as an F-15 pilot. The fact that General Moseley lobbied Congress for additional fighter purchases in defiance of decisions already taken by his civilian masters will be something surviving Air Force generals will have to ponder. Replacing General Moseley will be General Norton Schwartz, a C-130 pilot with a career in special operations and, currently, logistics management as Commander, Transportation Command. The new vice chief of staff will be Lieutenant General William Fraser, a bomber pilot with experience in nuclear staff planning and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations.

The Psychological Fog of War - Boston Globe editorial

The harsh emotional and mental costs of sending troops to frequent and long deployments in wars without clear battle lines became apparent last month, when the Pentagon released data on suicides and cases of post-traumatic stress disorder. In 2007, there were 115 suicides among active duty service members, an increase over a total of 102 in 2006 and the highest figure since the Pentagon began keeping data on suicides in 1980. Last year, the services also registered their highest number of post-traumatic stress disorder cases - 14,000, an increase of 46 percent over 2006. As one step to reduce the pressure on its ranks, the Department of Defense has already announced it would end the 15-month deployments in Iraq required by the surge of 2007. For the longer term, a drawdown in US forces in Iraq would reduce the need for the frequent deployments that are so harmful to service members' family relationships.

AFRICA

UN to Cut Aid Flights to Sudan - Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post

Humanitarian flights that deliver doctors, aid workers and supplies to remote areas of Sudan's western Darfur region are being cut because of lack of funding, the UN World Food Program said Tuesday. The threat of bandits on Darfur's roads during the past year has forced aid groups to increasingly rely on helicopters and other flights to gain access to the region, where an estimated 2.5 million people are displaced because of conflict. The air transport is provided by the UN's Humanitarian Air Service. But funding for the service, which costs about $77 million a year, has become tenuous as the conflict has dragged into its fifth year.

Sudanese Soldiers and Rebels Clash in Darfur - Andrew Heavens, Reuters

Sudanese soldiers and rebels said on Tuesday they had clashed in a remote territory of Darfur over the weekend. The rebel Sudan Liberation Movement's Unity (SLM-Unity) faction said it killed 157 Sudanese soldiers after ambushing an army brigade near Um Keddada in North Darfur on Sunday. SLM-Unity spokesman Mahgoub Hussein said by email the insurgents had defeated the Sudanese troops, seized a large number of weapons and vehicles, and lost seven of their own fighters.

Zimbabwe 'Run by Military Junta' - BBC News

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says Zimbabwe "is effectively being run by a military junta". He said 66 opposition supporters had been killed in political violence since March's disputed presidential elections and 200 more were unaccounted for. Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change says he beat President Robert Mugabe outright. Officials say there must be a run-off on 27 June. Mr Tsvangirai said he would not accept a victory for Mr Mugabe in the run-off.

Tsvangirai Rejects Unity Government - MacDonald Dzirutwe, Reuters

Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai rejected calls on Tuesday for a national unity government instead of a presidential runoff vote and said his party was sure to win the election despite government violence. Tsvangirai told a news conference Zimbabwe had suffered a de facto coup and was being run by a military junta. Some 66 supporters of his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) had been killed since disputed March elections, he said.

Hope and Doubt Over Somalia Peace Deal - Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times

Peace is no small feat in Somalia, and if the reaction to the accord struck on Monday night is any gauge, peace may still be a long way off. On Tuesday, militant Islamist leaders immediately rejected the deal, which had been signed by moderate Islamists and the beleaguered transitional government of Somalia. “The so-called deal is rubbish and inconsequential,” Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, a strident Islamist leader, told The Associated Press. “It will not in any way result in peace.” Instead, he said, the deal will bring more bloodshed. He was among the key Islamist figures who boycotted the peace talks, which had been organized by the United Nations to end the combat between Somalia’s transitional government and a determined insurgency.

Congo Warlord Wants Case Dismissed - Arthur Max, Associated Press

A lawyer for a former Congolese warlord asked a war crimes court Tuesday to dismiss the case against his client because UN agencies have refused to disclose evidence they gave to prosecutors. Defense attorney Jean-Marie Biju Duval said the "scandalous" secrecy meant his client, Thomas Lubanga, would not receive a fair trial on charges of recruiting, conscripting and deploying child soldiers to fight in eastern Congo in 2002-03.

AMERICAS

Chavez Backtracks on Spy Law, Rebels - Christopher Toothaker, Associated Press

Hugo Chavez has held on to power for a decade in part because he knows when he's gone too far. Chavez angered many Venezuelans by openly supporting Colombia's leftist rebels, and then frightened many citizens by decreeing a tough new intelligence law. Another leader with Chavez's considerable control over his nation's institutions might have dug in his heels. Instead, Chavez pivoted. Facing a chorus of outrage with only months to go before crucial state and local elections, he now says the guerrillas should give up their fight, and insists he never wanted to force people to spy on their neighbors.

Hugo Chávez: A Man With Many Faces - Milton Coleman, Washington Post

That's Chávez. You never know which character you're going to get. The lectern-pounding revolutionary? The petro-populist? The crooning romantic? Chávez was a mystery to me. What was he really all about? How much substance, how much style, how much, even, sheer stupidity? No easy call, I was learning. And even after watching his performance at a three-hour news conference (short by Chávez standards) as part of my visit with a delegation from the American Society of Newspaper Editors, he seemed more complicated than even I had presumed.

A Welcome Flip-Flop - Washington Post editorial

Colombia's FARC terrorist movement has been reeling from a series of devastating blows in the last several months, ranging from the death of its legendary leader to the killing of its second in command in a government air attack and the capture of his laptops. Now it has suffered another bolt from the blue: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, the FARC's most valuable ally in recent years, has abruptly reversed his public support. The obvious explanation for this sudden somersault lies in those laptops recovered from a FARC camp in March, for which Mr. Chávez and his supporters have offered no coherent answer. Their thousands of digital files contain powerful evidence that Mr. Chávez and Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa accepted aid from the FARC while rising to power and later provided or promised the group money, weapons or safe harbor. On Saturday, the day before Mr. Chávez spoke, a Venezuelan national guard officer was caught inside Colombia with 40,000 rifle cartridges he was trying to deliver to the FARC.

EU Nears Deal Ending Cuba Sanctions - Ingrid Melander, Reuters

European Union states are nearing agreement on ending sanctions on Cuba in defiance of U.S. calls for continued pressure for democratic reform on the communist island, diplomats said on Tuesday. Closed-door talks on the move are continuing as EU leaders host President George W. Bush for a farewell summit in Slovenia. EU foreign ministers could endorse the step at a meeting in Luxembourg next Monday, the envoys said.

Leading Dissident Plans to Return to Cuba - Danica Coto, Associated Press

A leading Cuban dissident said Tuesday that he plans to return to the communist-run island after a nearly two-year absence to fight for the freedom of political prisoners. Hector Palacios, who was in Puerto Rico for a two-day visit, told reporters that he and his wife Gisela Delgado - also a Cuban dissident - would soon travel back to their Caribbean homeland to resume leadership of his outlawed opposition group, Liberal Unity.

ASIA PACIFIC

Protests in South Korea Imperil Government - Choe Sang-Hun, New York Times

President Lee Myung Bak pledged a "new beginning" on Wednesday as he contemplated reorganizing his unpopular government which has been shaken by the biggest anti-government demonstrations in two decades. The demonstrations against Mr. Lee started more than a month ago when students began protesting his government's decision in April to resume imports of American beef despite widespread fears of mad cow disease. They snowballed into a broader backlash against Mr. Lee's leadership style and his policies on everything from North Korea to education reform programs.

Beef Protests Stir Backlash Against President - Kim and Harden, Washington Post

It's not just about beef anymore. As tens of thousands of people waved candles in central Seoul and other South Korean cities, a month of street demonstrations against the purported danger of US beef broadened on Tuesday night into a populist backlash against the country's fledging president, Lee Myung-bak. Lee's entire cabinet offered to resign early Tuesday to take responsibility for the beef dispute and to take heat off the president, who has been in office less than four months.

China Drains Lake Into Ruined Town - Edwar Wong, New York Times

Low-lying areas in one of the towns most devastated by the May 12 earthquake were flooded Tuesday as a torrent of water spilled from a dangerous lake formed by landslides, dislodging wrecked homes, cars and corpses. The surge of floodwater into the town, Beichuan, was part of an effort by engineers and soldiers to drain Tangjiashan, one of more than 30 so-called quake lakes that were formed by landslides. For weeks, the dam of rock and mud holding back the rising waters of the Jian River there has threatened to burst and flood towns and cities downstream that are home to 1.3 million people.

28 Chinese Officials Cited for Quake Laxity - Edward Cody, Washington Post

The Chinese Communist Party has disciplined 28 officials and promoted 50 as a result of their performances during rescue operations after the devastating May 12 earthquake in Sichuan province, the party said Tuesday. The personnel changes, including the firing of 15 officials for "doing nothing" during the catastrophe, represented the first public accounting of government actions after a prominent warning by a senior party leader that officials' careers would depend on how well they responded to the crisis. In a sign the party intended the decisions to serve as examples, they were reported prominently in the party's Sichuan Daily newspaper and relayed nationwide by the official New China News Agency.

TV Crew Believed Kidnapped in Philippines - Carlos Conte, New York Times

A television news team from the Philippines’ largest network, including one of the country’s best-known journalists, was believed to have been abducted by members of the militant group Abu Sayyaf, officials said Tuesday. The journalist, Ces Drilon, a senior reporter for ABS-CBN, was with her cameraman and driver when they were intercepted on Sunday by armed men in Sulu, a province in the south where Abu Sayyaf, which is fighting for a separate Muslim state in the southern Philippines, and other Islamic extremists are known to operate, the police said.

Village Struggles With Ban on Muslim Sect - Peter Gelling, New York Times

On Monday the Indonesia’s government issued a decree calling on the country’s 200,000 Ahmadiyya adherents to cease practicing their faith altogether or face arrest. With that, rumors swept through Manis Lor and surrounding towns that hard-line Muslim groups were planning protests, demonstrations or possibly an assault.

Muslim and Indonesian - Wall Street Journal editorial

If the war on terror teaches anything, it's that radical Islam cannot tolerate religious pluralism. So it's worrying, and dangerous, to see the world's largest Muslim-majority nation, Indonesia, restrict a moderate religious group at the behest of a radical fringe. This is no way for a democracy to behave. The government of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Monday ordered "all Ahmadiyah followers to stop their activities" or face jail. The Ahmadiyah is a small Muslim sect concentrated mostly in South Asia, with about 200,000 adherents in Indonesia. Its followers revere the Quran and have formally renounced the idea of violent jihad. They respect interfaith dialogues. By restricting the Ahmadiyah, the President isn't acting in accordance with the country's constitution, which guarantees "all persons the right to worship according to their own religion or belief." Instead, he's kowtowing to the thuggish Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), which beat up a peaceful gathering of religious moderates in Jakarta last week and called for the Ahmadiyah to be banned.

Asia's Other Burma - Bounsang Khamkeo, Wall Street Journal opinion

The recent natural disaster in Burma has focused the world's attention on how dictatorships can abuse their own people. From that perspective, there's another repressed country in Southeast Asia - Laos - also worthy of international scrutiny. Despite superficial reforms, Laos remains much as it was when the communists came to power 30 years ago. Though the constitution "guarantees" freedom of speech, assembly and belief, in reality there are no rights. The Communist Party enjoys a political monopoly. Laotians can own businesses and travel abroad, but they remain enslaved at home. Dissidents are jailed, tortured and denied fair trials.

Southeast Asia’s Islamists Hurt - Abe Greenwald, Contentions

Positive developments in the War on Terror seem to be multiplying by the day. There is a piece in today’s New York Times about the progress being made in the fight against Islamic terrorist groups in Southeast Asia. The most dangerous organizations, Jemay Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf, have taken huge blows in operational capabilities and public support over the past three years.

EUROPE

Spain Arrests 8, Aided a Qaeda-Linked Cell - Elaine Sciolino, New York Times

The Spanish police on Tuesday arrested eight men suspected of giving financial and logistical support to a terrorist group in Algeria linked to Al Qaeda, Spain’s Interior Ministry said. The antiterrorist investigation involved arrests in Barcelona, Pamplona and the northeastern province of Castellón. The eight suspects are Algerian-born and range from 27 to 39 years old. They are believed to be affiliated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, which claimed responsibility for the suicide bombings last December against United Nations and government offices in Algiers that killed 41 people, including 17 United Nations staff members.

Putin Pledges Conventional Weapons Funds - Denis Dyomkin, Reuters

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Tuesday promised the military sufficient funds to maintain battle readiness with its conventional weapons purchases. Putin met with government ministers, including deputies Igor Sechin and Sergey Ivanov, and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin to discuss military defense budget indicators for 2009-11.

A Dark Corner of Europe - Michael Totten, Middle East Journal

Sarajevo can be startling for first-time visitors. Shattered buildings, walls riddled with bullet holes, and mass graveyards are shocking things to see in a European capital in the 21st Century. The war in Bosnia-Herzegovina was more violent than the others in the former Yugoslavia, and it shows. If I believed in ghosts I'd say Sarajevo must be one haunted place. At the same time, the reconstruction and cleanup work is impressive. The destruction gave me a jolt, but at the same time I was slightly surprised I didn't see more of it.

Crossroads - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club

Michael Totten reports from Sarajevo. Sarajevo has largely recovered from the physical scars of the 1990s battles. The one thing that has changed - ripped apart by ethnic powerplays - is the easy sort of intercommunal tolerance of 30 years ago. In its place is a simplified map consisting of more or less homogenous ethnic groups. It's as if the ingredients in a stew suddenly agglomerated themselves together until you had lumps instead of a mix.

MIDDLE EAST

Fatah Islam Chief Threatens New Attacks - Bassam Mroue, Associated Press

The fugitive leader of the al-Qaida-inspired group Fatah Islam lashed out at Lebanon's Sunni politicians and Shiite Hezbollah militants and threatened suicide attacks in a new audio message Tuesday. Shaker Youssef al-Absi said that the time had come for revenge against the "enemies of God" and added that suicide attackers were ready for action. The authenticity of the audio posted on a Web site commonly used by militants could not be independently verified.

Israel - Syria Talks Resume Next Week - Mark Lavie, Associated Press

Indirect peace negotiations between Israel and Syria will resume next week, Israeli officials said late Tuesday. Israel and Syria announced last month that they had been holding indirect talks through Turkish mediators for a year. Formal peace negotiations between Israel and Syria broke down in 2000. The Israeli officials, who are close to the talks, said next week's round would be in the same form as the previous one in Turkey last month. Those talks involved senior aides to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and their Syrian counterparts.

Israel Leaders Discuss Gaza Plan - BBC News

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is meeting top military officials and ministers to discuss a possible wider military offensive in the Gaza Strip. Violence flared in north-east Gaza as talks began, with militants mortaring southern Israel and an Israeli missile strike killing three militants. Egypt is trying to broker a truce over the Israel-Gaza border. On Monday, the parents of an Israeli soldier held by Palestinian militants in Gaza received a letter from him.

Israel Kills 3 Gaza Militants - Ibrahim Barzak, Associated Press

Gaza militants bombarded southern Israel with 20 mortar rounds in the space of an hour midday Tuesday, provoking Israeli ground strikes that killed three militants from the territory's ruling Hamas group. The violence flared in northeast Gaza just as Israel's top leadership was debating whether to pursue a truce with the Islamic Hamas or embark on a broad military operation against it. There were no casualties on the Israeli side from the mortar barrage.

Abbas's Misbegotten Peace Bid - Sara Bjerg Moller, Boston Globe

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has been chalking up quite a few frequent flyer miles lately. On Sunday, Abbas met with Saudi King Abdullah in Jeddah. The following day he traveled to Egypt for meetings with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The purpose of both trips was to secure Arab support for a new initiative aimed at ending the Middle East stalemate. There's only one problem: The negotiations Abbas is trying to jumpstart are not with Israel but with Hamas. Since last month, Abbas has been working overtime to engineer a Fatah and Hamas reconciliation. Last week Abbas announced that he was prepared to meet with leaders of Hamas without any preconditions. His announcement, which abandons a policy by Fatah of refusing to talk to the group until it first gave up control of the Gaza Strip, suggests that Abbas has concluded that the future lies not in talks with Israel but with Hamas.

Egypt's President Urges Family Planning - Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington Post

Egypt's big problem? Too many Egyptians, President Hosni Mubarak said this week, launching a new family planning campaign as his government grapples with long bread lines and riots over flour rations. Mubarak has urged Egyptians to have smaller families since coming to power in 1981, when the country's population was slightly more than 40 million, about half of its estimated population of 81 million today. Many Egyptians see large families as a source of financial security.

MB in the Gulf - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

A few weeks back I wrote about the shifting balance between the Muslim Brotherhood and the salafi trend in Kuwait, and tied it to a broader set of questions about how this might affect al-Qaeda and other forms of radicalization. So I was very interested by an article last week (June 3) on Islam Online written by the Saudi Islamist Mohanna al-Hubayl about the state of the Ikhwan throughout the Gulf. Hubayl writes that the Kuwaiti election results should come as a major shock and wake up call to the MB, demonstrating that the general rise in Islamic sentiment in the Gulf will not necessarily translate into support for their organization.

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan Lawyers in Huge Protest March - Shah and Gall, New York Times

Hundreds of Pakistani lawyers began a two-day march from the southern city of Karachi to Islamabad, the capital, on Tuesday to demand the reinstatement of 60 judges removed by President Pervez Musharraf. The march is the first large-scale protest against the governing parliamentary coalition elected in February, and it is the coalition’s first test in handling a highly emotional public issue that fatally wounded the government backed by Mr. Musharraf. Organized by Aitzaz Ahsan, a prominent politician and the president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, the march is a response to the failure of the new government to meet its promises to reinstate the judges.

More Security in Islamabad Before March - Munir Ahmad, Associated Press

A top leader of Pakistan's lawyers movement on Tuesday brushed aside concerns that terrorists might attack protesters demanding the reinstatement of judges fired by President Pervez Musharraf. "No terrorist needs to attack us," Aitzaz Ahsan told reporters in Lahore, the main city in eastern Pakistan. "If there are any terrorists, they are opponents of Musharraf." The lawyers' "Long March" protest campaign is coming a week after a bombing near the Danish Embassy in Islamabad killed at least six people.

Sri Lanka Bus Blast Kills 21 - Associated Press

In the second attack in three days targeting civilians in the area, a bomb ripped through a crowded passenger bus near Sri Lanka's capital during Friday's morning rush hour, killing at least 21 people and wounding 47, officials said. A Sri Lankan soldier inspects the exploded bus in Moratuwa, a suburb of Colombo, Sri Lanka, Friday, June 6, 2008. A bomb ripped through a crowded passenger bus near Sri Lanka's capital during morning rush hour Friday, killing at least 21 people and wounding an additional 47, officials said. Authorities promptly blamed the Tamil Tiger rebels for the attack, who have made such attacks a hallmark of their 25-year fight against Sri Lanka's government.

Fringe Group Claims Bomb Responsibility - Shihar Aneez, Reuters

A little known Sri Lankan rebel group claimed responsibility on Tuesday for recent bomb attacks on transport as revenge for what it said were government attacks and aerial bombings on innocent Tamil civilians. The military has blamed Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eeelam (LTTE) rebels for a series of train and bus blasts in the capital Colombo and central Sri Lanka in which at least 32 people were killed and over 100 wounded.

UNITED NATIONS

UN Defends Selection Process for Rights Chief - Patrick Worsnip, Reuters

The United Nations rejected on Tuesday as "absurd" and "offensive" allegations that it was being secretive in selecting a successor to its outspoken human rights chief, Louise Arbour. Arbour, a Canadian, announced in March that she would not seek a second four-year term as Geneva-based UN High Commissioner for Human Rights after her current term expires on June 30.

RECOMMENDED READING

KeepNet 8 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

More great reading from a SWJ friend.

Recommended Reading - Mark Safranski, ZenPundit

More great reading from a SWJ friend.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

17-19 June 208 - 3rd Annual North American Security Colloquium: Wars Without Borders (Public Event). Kingston, Ontario. Sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Queen's Centre for International Relations, and Defence Management Studies at Queen's University, and the Canadian 'Forces' Land Doctrine and Training System. The conflicts today in Iraq and in Afghanistan are examples of what some leading scholars and many commanders have termed “continuous wars among the people.” This type of conflict is developing or occurring in other regions of the world, in Africa and in Latin America for example. In many of these situations traditional and legal borders no longer define or contain the conflict, nor do obvious sovereign entities control belligerents. International commitments to control these conflicts necessarily demand complex, multi-dimensional diplomatic, military, police, and humanitarian responses. What has been learned about such conflicts from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may to some degree be transferable to conflicts in other regions. Assuming that the international community may well face future operations characterized by regional, borderless “wars among the people”, the centres at Queen’s University and their partners propose convening a distinguished group of approximately 200 experts from academic, military, governmental, and international institutions to examine how best to prepare commanders, military units and governments to plan for and conduct complex, multi-dimensional stability campaigns in this new environment.

24-25 June - 16th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Wargame (Public Event - Wargame). Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). The purpose of the war game series is to provide education and familiarization to members of the Association concerning current issues, capabilities, and expeditionary force trends in the United States Marine Corpsand to identify areas where NDIA can provide assistance. The Purpose of the 2008 NDIA Expeditionary Warfare Division/USMC War Game is to examine C2 Integration issues concerning Sensor Fusion, Information Management, and Fusion and the Commander's Visualization Requirements and Realities using seabased Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief operations at the MEB level for a background.

11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. There will be a $30 conference fee. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.