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IRAQ
"Americans Are the Problem" - Nazila Fathi, New York Times
Iran’s supreme leader told Iraq’s visiting prime minister on Monday that the American forces in Iraq are the biggest obstacle to Iraqi stability. The message from the Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was the most authoritative public word to date on Iran’s objections to long-term security agreements currently under negotiation between the Bush administration and the government of Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. The American military has been operating in Iraq under a United Nations mandate that has been renewed annually. The current pact Dec. 31, 2008.
US Troops are 'Main Obstacle - Ashraf Khalil, Los Angeles Times
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki concluded a three-day visit to Iran after meeting Monday with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who warned that the continued presence of US troops was "the main obstacle on the way to progress and prosperity in Iraq." The session with Khamenei, Iran's top religious and political authority, served to further highlight the delicate position of the Iraqi government - caught between the US and Iran, each seeking to pull Iraq out of the other's sphere of influence. US officials have long accused Shiite Muslim Iran of playing a negative role in the affairs of its neighbor to the west, which has had a Shiite-run government of its own in the wake of the 2003 US-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.
Iran's Supreme Leader Opposes US-Iraq Deal - Associated Press
Iraq's prime minister made little headway in easing Iranian opposition to a US-Iraqi security pact, as Iran's supreme leader told him Monday that American troops must leave the country. The deal, which is still under negotiation, could lay the groundwork for a long-term US military presence in Iraq. The Iranians fear the deal would solidify US influence in Iraq and give American forces a launching pad for military action against them. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki met over three days with Iranian leaders in Tehran, trying to ease the neighboring country's opposition to the agreement - apparently hoping to stop Iranian denunciations while assuring the Iranians that a deal would pose no threat to their security.
US Official Cites 'Hardening' of Detainees - Walter Pincus, Washington Post
US combat commanders are currently sending about 30 prisoners a day to the main US-run detention centers in Iraq, with more of the detainees likely to be held for longer periods as security risks than those prisoners taken when the US troop buildup first began last year, according to Maj. Gen. Douglas Stone Jr., the former head of the Iraq detention program. "We're seeing a hardening of the population where there are guys that are as bad as they come," Stone told reporters yesterday at a Pentagon news conference. "Division commanders have gotten much better at determining that the guy's a real, legitimate . . . imperative security risk," he added, saying "conditions are perhaps a little bit less chaotic on the ground, so you can collect more information" about the detainees and determine that they would not be released after their initial six-month review.
Iraq Troops Decision 'This Year' - BBC News
The final withdrawal of British troops from Iraq could be announced by the end of the year, the BBC has learned. Discussions have begun about forces pulling out of the country - if the security situation continues to improve as it has in recent months. Ministers are under pressure from the military to release the 4,000 troops who are currently serving in Iraq while pressures are mounting in Afghanistan. Previous plans to reduce troop numbers to 2,500 were put on hold in March.
US Calls in Airstrike in North - Robert Reid, Associated Press
American soldiers called in an airstrike Monday during an attack on a house believed used by foreign fighters, killing five militants and capturing more than a dozen others, the US military said. The firefight broke out early Monday when American soldiers, acting on information from an Iraqi prisoner, came under heavy gunfire as they approached the suspected hideout in a remote area of northwestern Iraq, the US said in a statement.
Few Kuwaiti Fighters in Iraq - Diana Elias, Associated Press
The US ambassador to Kuwait said Monday that although Kuwaitis account for only a small percentage of foreign insurgents fighting in Iraq, their funding from the oil-rich country remains a concern that must be addressed. Kuwaitis make up "one percent or less" of foreign fighters operating in neighboring Iraq, Ambassador Deborah K. Jones told reporters. "I am not saying there isn't a problem with facilitation of funding for foreign fighters that we need to address," she said, without elaborating. She didn't provide a number for foreign fighters in Iraq or clarify how many Kuwaitis make up the one percent.
Jordan Says it Will Send Envoy to Iraq - Associated Press
Jordan says it will dispatch an ambassador to Iraq, following the lead of other Arab nations. State Minister for Information Nasser Judeh told reporters Monday the ambassador will take up his post in Baghdad "in the near future." He declined to divulge the exact date or identify the envoy.
Refugees in Jordan Wait Out Violence - Ben Lando, Washington Times
More than half a million Iraqis are estimated to have fled to Jordan since post-invasion violence took over their country. Many more sought out the Jordanian capital before 2003 as a temporary home after coup d'etats a half-century ago or a dictator's wrath in the last decade. Some dream America will eventually become their new home. But in Amman they wait, part of a global refugee line of millions from the latest Iraqi diaspora.
How PM Maliki Pacified Iraq - Kagan and Kagan, Wall Street Journal opinion
America is very close to succeeding in Iraq. The "near-strategic defeat" of al Qaeda in Iraq described by CIA Director Michael Hayden last month in the Washington Post has been followed by the victory of the Iraqi government's security forces over illegal Shiite militias, including Iranian-backed Special Groups. The enemies of Iraq and America now cling desperately to their last bastions, while the political process builds momentum. These tremendous gains remain fragile and could be lost to skillful enemy action, or errors in Baghdad or Washington. But where the US was unequivocally losing in Iraq at the end of 2006, we are just as unequivocally winning today.
SOFA Will Be Too Much for Iraq to Lift - Westhawk, Westhawk
Last year, the U.S. and Iraqi governments began serious negotiations on two agreements, a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and a Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA). “Dr. iRack” at the blog Abu Muqawama is following these negotiations. In many ways, the SOFA and SFA negotiations are the culminating event of the American expedition into Iraq. Or at least the U.S. government would like these agreements to be the culmination of the campaign. The U.S. government sees these agreements as routine. For Iraq, however, SOFA and SFA raise fundamental questions for Iraqi society. It is probably asking too much for Iraq to complete these negotiations this year.
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS
Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan - Seth Jones, Rand
This study explores the nature of the insurgency in Afghanistan, the key challenges and successes of the U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign, and the capabilities necessary to wage effective counterinsurgency operations. By examining the key lessons from all insurgencies since World War II, it finds that most policymakers repeatedly underestimate the importance of indigenous actors to counterinsurgency efforts. The U.S. should focus its resources on helping improve the capacity of the indigenous government and indigenous security forces to wage counterinsurgency. It has not always done this well. The U.S. military-along with U.S. civilian agencies and other coalition partners-is more likely to be successful in counterinsurgency warfare the more capable and legitimate the indigenous security forces (especially the police), the better the governance capacity of the local state, and the less external support that insurgents receive.
Pakistan Helped Taliban Insurgents - Jason Straziuso, Associated Press
Pakistani intelligence agents and paramilitary forces have helped train Taliban insurgents and have given them information about American troop movements in Afghanistan, said a report published Monday by a US think tank. The study by the RAND Corp. also warned that the US will face "crippling, long-term consequences" in Afghanistan if Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan are not eliminated. It echoes recent statements by American generals, who have increased their warnings that militant safe havens in Pakistan are threatening efforts in Afghanistan. The study was funded by the US Defense Department.
New RAND COIN in Afghanistan Study - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar
Seems like the folks at RAND have been similarly busy, with another COIN report out today: Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan by Seth G. Jones, the fourth volume in the RAND Counterinsurgency series. The tone of the report partly reflects what I’ve been hearing the last couple of days about operations in Afghanistan - “comprehensive organisational dysfunction” sticks in my mind - although Jones concentrates more on capacity-building and security security reform.
RAND Study on Counterinsurgency - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal
Seth G. Jones of RAND National Defense Research Institute has published Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. It will required several assessments to analyze the entirety of the paper, and in lieu of attempting to assess the paper chronologically, we will address it thematically. Several quotes will be supplied (mainly from Chapter 2 which is entitled Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare).
Applying Iraq’s Lessons in an Afghan Village - Carlotta Gall, New York Times
United States Marines pushed the Taliban out of this village and the surrounding district in southern Helmand Province so quickly in recent weeks that they called the operation a “catastrophic success.” Yet, NATO troops had conducted similar operations here in 2006 and 2007, and the Taliban had returned soon after they left. The Marines, drawing on lessons from Iraq, say they know what to do to keep the Taliban at bay if they are given the time. “There is definitely someone thinking out there,” said Capt. John Moder, commander of Company C of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, speaking of the Taliban. “That’s why we need these people to be at least neutral to us,” he said, gesturing to the farmers who have been slowly filtering back to harvest their fields.
Karzai Says Foreign Forces Needed for Decade - Reuters
Afghanistan will need foreign security aid for at least another decade before it can run its own affairs, Afghan president Hamid Karzai said on Monday. "It will take much longer for us to be able to fully defend ourselves and run our affairs. At least another 10 years will be required for the whole of the country," Karzai told journalists in The Hague. Some 60,000 foreign troops led by NATO and the US military are stationed in Afghanistan where the al Qaeda-backed Taliban movement has made a comeback since 2006. The number of Western-trained and funded Afghan security forces fighting against the militants stands at about 150,000.
Growing Drug Trade will Prolong Conflict - James Kirkup, Daily Telegraph of London
Afghanistan's growing drug trade and the corruption of its government will prolong the Taliban insurgency against British troops for years to come, confidential Government documents have warned. The private warning from UK diplomats emerged as Gordon Brown insisted that British troops would stay in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future despite the UK death toll in the country reaching 100. In a confidential Government paper seen by the Daily Telegraph, diplomats warn Mr Brown that the growing Afghan opium trade will prolong the Taliban insurgency and say the Kabul government's failure to tackle corruption is fuelling popular resentment.
UK PM Pays Tribute to Troops in Afghanistan - Associated Press
Prime Minister Gordon Brown paid tribute to British troops serving in Afghanistan on Monday, a day after the country's death toll in the conflict reached 100. Three British soldiers were killed by a suicide attack Sunday in Afghanistan's Upper Sangin Valley. "The risks they bear and the sacrifices they make should be in our thoughts, not just today but every day," Brown said. "They have paid the ultimate price, but they have achieved something of lasting value - helping turn a lawless region sheltering terrorists into an emerging democracy." Britain has about 7,300 soldiers in southern Afghanistan fighting alongside US, Canadian, Dutch and local Afghan forces.
Hero Who Paid Price for Bravery - Michael Evans, Times of London
The platoon of 12 soldiers from the 2nd Battalion The Parachute Regiment had spotted the Afghan man up ahead as they returned from a patrol to their remote operating base, known as Inkerman, north of Sangin in Helmand province. He was acting oddly, and Private Daniel Gamble, one of the regiment’s small number of Pashtu speakers, approached him. As he began to ask him what he was doing, the man reached under his cloak and detonated a concealed explosive vest, killing Private Gamble instantly and fatally wounding two other members of the patrol.
What the British Army Faces - Simpson and Gammell, Daily Telegraph of London
Former officers and senior politicians reflect on the Army's role in Afghanistan and its future.
Tell Us Why - Anthony Loyd, Times of London opinion
Whatever happened to British grit and steel? Given the self-doubt and hand-wringing surrounding the deaths of three British soldiers in Afghanistan on Sunday, which took the number of British troops killed there since 2001 to the symbolic but otherwise meaningless 100 mark, it would be small surprise if the Taleban is bolstered in its belief that it can outlast - if not outfight - Britain's troop commitment to Helmand. Despite media fascination with the 100 figure, British casualties in Afghanistan are low compared to those of many army campaigns in the past 50 years. Although it is somewhat distasteful to examine the statistics of dead sons, husbands and brothers, the numbers require some assessment for their relevance to be understood.
Our 100 Dead Did Not Die in Vain - Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Daily Telegraph opinion
Some might feel that not much has changed. Instead of the Soviets, it is now American and British troops who are occupying a Muslim country. Comparisons are made with attempts to conquer Afghanistan in the 19th century that, invariably, failed. It is right to be aware of the history of that unfortunate country and to be sensitive to such comparisons. The circumstances are, however, entirely different and there is every reason to applaud the work that NATO is doing in support of the elected Afghan government. In broad terms, the American-led intervention in Afghanistan has succeeded in its primary purpose. Al-Qa'eda has been driven out of most of Afghanistan, its organisation has been decimated and its leaders driven to desolate frontier areas on the border with Pakistan. Its ability to use Afghan territory for training and organisation, and as a safe haven, has been largely eliminated.
Pakistan's Swat Peace Agreement in Crossfire - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
Tensions have arisen between the central government and the Taliban in Swat, and the central government at the provincial government, over the Swat peace agreement signed last month. The central government said the Swat Accord has been negated due to Taliban attacks. The Taliban and the Awami National Party, which administers the Northwest Frontier Province, said the agreement is still valid.
Taliban Defends Peace Accord - Evan Kohlmann, Counterterrorism
The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban movement) defending the recent peace accord negotiated between the Pakistani government and local Taliban forces. According to the statement, “We consider the peace accord in Pakistan as an internal affair, which pertains to that country alone—yet the occupation forces in Afghanistan and the forces hostile to Islam around the world oppose this peace accord and argue it will lead to an escalation in jihadi activities in Afghanistan. This claim is groundless and it is far from the truth…
IRAN
Bush Lobbies Europe on Iran - Jennifer Loven, Associated Press
President Bush's weeklong tour through Berlin, Rome, Paris and London appears every bit the glamorous old-style farewell tour with a leisurely schedule, jaunts to country castles and lavish dinners. But it's actually a high-stakes diplomatic mission, spurred by Mr. Bush's fear that Iran is an increasingly urgent threat and that Europe might not take it seriously enough.
Iran Vows 'Painful Response' if Israel Attacks - Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press
Iran's defense minister warned of a "painful response" if Israel attacks Iran, the official IRNA news agency reported Monday. Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar was responding to statements from Shaul Mofaz, an Israeli Cabinet minister, who warned Friday that Israel will attack Iran if it doesn't abandon its nuclear program. Israel, which itself is believed to have stockpiled about 200 nuclear weapons, has accused Iran of seeking to build its own arsenal.
Threatening Iran - New York Times editorial
Israeli leaders spent last week talking tough about Iran and threatening possible military action. The United States and the other major powers need to address Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, but with more assertive diplomacy - including greater financial pressures - not more threats or war planning. The Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who is bedeviled by a corruption scandal that could drive him from office, led the charge. “The Iranian threat must be stopped by all possible means,” he said in Washington, a day before meeting President Bush at the White House.
THE LONG WAR
Rethinking the National Interest - Condoleezza Rice, Real Clear Politics opinion
What is the national interest? This is a question that I took up in 2000 in these pages. That was a time that we as a nation revealingly called "the post-Cold War era." We knew better where we had been than where we were going. Yet monumental changes were unfolding - changes that were recognized at the time but whose implications were largely unclear. And then came the attacks of September 11, 2001. As in the aftermath of the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, the United States was swept into a fundamentally different world. We were called to lead with a new urgency and with a new perspective on what constituted threats and what might emerge as opportunities. And as with previous strategic shocks, one can cite elements of both continuity and change in our foreign policy since the attacks of September 11.
Detention Centers Give Glimpse Into al-Qaida - Gerry Gilmore, AFPS
Officials who manage detention centers in Iraq are getting a valuable look inside the mind of al-Qaida in Iraq, a senior US military officer said here today. “We have learned so much about who al-Qaida is; we have learned so much about how they recruit and what their intent is; we have learned so much about how to counter them and how to engage [the detainee population] with a very clear program that breaks away their support base,” Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Douglas M. Stone told Pentagon reporters. About 21,000 detainees are being held in detention centers in Iraq under a United Nations resolution, said Stone, who recently completed a 14-month duty tour as the deputy commander of detention operations for Multinational Force Iraq. Stone said he implemented a system last fall that separated hard-core extremists from more moderate members of the detention population. Moderate, well-behaved detainees, he told reporters, are rewarded with family visitation times, literacy and vocational training classes and more.
Sheik Offers To Take Fight to Bin Laden - Eli Lake, New York Sun
The leader of the tribal confederation that has fought to expel Al Qaeda from most of Iraq 's Anbar province is offering his men to help gin up a rebellion against Osama bin Laden's organization along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. In an interview, Sheik Ahmad al-Rishawi told The New York Sun that in April he prepared a 47-page study on Afghanistan and its tribes for the deputy chief of mission at the American embassy in Kabul , Christopher Dell. When asked if he would send military advisers to Afghanistan to assist American troops fighting there, he said: "I have no problem with this; if they ask me, I will do it."
Fighting Al-Qaeda From Iraq To Afghanistan - Steve Schippert, Threats Watch
In response to a post earlier today regarding Sheikh Ahmad al-Rishawi’s offer to assist the US in creating a mirror anti-al-Qaeda movement in Afghanistan similar to Sahwa al-Iraq (Iraq Awakening), I added an update post that looks back at the words of al-Rishawi’s late brother, Sheikh Abdul Sattar. I titled the update “Sheikh Ahmad al-Rishawi: Acting On Late Brother’s Pledge,” and the term ‘pledge’ was perhaps not the most accurate choice of words.
MI5 Says it Gave No Advice on Terror Laws - David Stringer, Associated Press
In a rare public comment, the head of Britain's MI5 domestic spy agency said Monday it has not offered the government any advice on contentious proposals for tougher anti-terrorism laws. The statement by MI5 director general Jonathan Evans appeared designed to prevent those on either side of the debate from casting the agency's silence as an endorsement of their views. British lawmakers vote Wednesday on Prime Minister Gordon Brown's proposal to increase the period suspected terrorists can be detained without charge from 28 to 42 days.
Counterterrorism Strategy That's Working - Jonathan Winer, Counterterrorism
According to today's New York Times , a number of counterterrorism experts and governments have concluded that JI and other major terrorist networks in Southeast Asia have suffered significant setbacks in the past three years. The Times article found that the major elements in combatting the terrorist groups were effective law enforcement, heightened intelligence, ongoing military operations and "an erosion of public support." The implication is that an actual strategy, implemented over an extended period in a sustained fashion, has had actual success.
Online Social Networks Expand - Madeleine Gruen, Counterterrorism
Hizbollah has a page on Facebook. So does Tanzeem-e-Islami and the Muslim Brotherhood. Hizb ut-Tahrir has at least three pages on Facebook and another four on Orkut - And those are just the official pages. There are many more pages to browse that were assembled as paeans by devotees of these Islamist groups and others. Facebook, Orkut, and other online social networks, are designed to provide a way for people to maintain existing relationships and to make new relationships with others who share common interests in one tidy cyber environment. The social networks promote a sense of belonging that might not be available in the physical world. This is particularly true for members or sympathizers of Islamist groups who live in countries where participation is banned, such as in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Jordan. Through the social networks they can join communities specific to their interests or affiliations and befriend others who share their views.
US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
2 Picked For Top Spots in Air Force - Josh White, Washington Post
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates yesterday recommended two nominees to the White House to take the top leadership positions in the Air Force, just days after he ousted the service's secretary and chief of staff amid concerns about the security of the nation's nuclear arsenal and other recent shortfalls. Gates recommended that President Bush nominate Michael B. Donley to take over as secretary of the Air Force and that Gen. Norton A. Schwartz become the top Air Force military officer and a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Both moves would put proven managers into critical positions that have recently lost credibility within the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill.
Non-fighter Pilot to Head the Air Force - Barnes and Spiegel, Los Angeles Times
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates took action Monday to dramatically reorient the leadership of the Air Force, calling for the nomination of the first non-fighter or bomber pilot to lead the service since its inception after World War II. His recommendation that Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, who began his military career as a cargo pilot, be nominated by President Bush as Air Force chief of staff marks a significant shift in Air Force leadership. Over time, the move could lead the service to give more emphasis to missions that support ground wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan, such as cargo flights and in-air refueling, over more traditional roles like air dogfights.
Gates Earns His Wings - Boston Globe editorial
The US military can ill afford leadership failures in its top positions, as it fights two wars and continues to oversee the nuclear weapons left over from the Cold War. So it is reassuring that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is willing to sack civilian and uniformed officials who fail to measure up. Last week, Gates took the unprecedented step of firing both top Air Force leaders - the service's secretary, Michael Wynne, and its chief of staff, General Michael Moseley. Gates made the moves after an inquiry showed systemic failures by the Air Force to manage properly the nuclear weapons under its control. Gates had called for the investigation after the Air Force mistakenly shipped high-tech electrical nose cone fuses for missiles to Taiwan. In a previous incident in 2007, a B-52 flew cross-country without anyone aware that it was carrying six armed nuclear cruise missiles.
Four-Star Heresy - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump
On Friday, Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave the commencement address to the colonels and senior lieutenant colonels graduating from the Army War College in Carlisle, Penn. These 339 graduates represent the cream of the Army's crop - the officers destined for brigade-level command, and possibly generals' stars someday. But instead of telling them how smart they are, Mullen admonished them to be professionally curious and intellectually humble - and to listen carefully to the wisdom of their subordinates, who have spent years learning hard lessons about warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan.
US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
Impasse on Spying Could Lead to Tighter Rules - Eric Lichtblau, New York Times
With Congress at an impasse over the government’s spy powers, congressional and intelligence officials are bracing for the possibility that the government may have to revert to the old rules of terrorist surveillance, a scenario that some officials predict could leave worrisome gaps in intelligence. That prospect seemed almost inconceivable just a few months ago, when congressional negotiators and the White House promised a quick resolution to a bruising debate over the government’s surveillance powers. But the dispute has dragged on. Though both sides say they are hopeful of reaching a deal, officials have been preparing classified briefings for Congress on the intelligence “degradation” they say could occur if there is no deal in place by the summer.
An Intelligence Postmortem - Boston Globe editorial
The Senate Committee on Intelligence issued two reports last week, one on the Bush administration's misuse of intelligence in the run-up to the Iraq war and the other on meetings in Rome and Paris, in 2001 and 2003, between US officials and dubious Iranian contacts. The reports are valuable both for what they reveal and for affirming the oversight responsibilities of Congress. Most of the committee's findings, to be sure, would be familiar to any alert newspaper reader. The public already knew, or should have known, not just that intelligence about Saddam Hussein's nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons was faulty, but also that President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and other officials exaggerated the threat and omitted mention of dissenting views among intelligence analysts.
AFRICA
Campaign of Violence Continues - Scott Baldauf, Christian Science Monitor
The options for resolving Zimbabwe's crisis are dwindling as political violence rises ahead of the June 27 presidential elections. International analysts now have little faith in the credibility of the vote - or their ability to improve the process. They suggest that any resolution is likely to come through mediation. Zimbabwean authorities detained and harassed US and British diplomats last week while they were on a fact-finding mission over political violence. Normally, harassment of diplomats is the sort of thing that brings on sanctions and sternly worded statements in the United Nations. But for Zimbabwe - which has rolled out a series of strong-armed measures against opposition party activists, international aid agencies, and tens of thousands of its own people - harassment is now commonplace.
Mugabe's Thugs Turn to Burning People Alive - Jan Raath, Times of London
For a wad of worthless Zimbabwean banknotes President Mugabe’s militias burnt six-year-old Nyasha Mashoko to death. The target of the Zanu (PF) thugs had been the boy’s father, Brian Mamhova. They came for him on Friday night - three truckloads of them, plus a Mercedes Benz from which alighted three armed men in suits, Mr Mamhova said. The militiamen had been promised Z$25 trillion (£12,500) to kill him, which seems a high price on the head of a district councillor but which is no problem for a Government that sees printing money as the best way out of a crisis.
Crackdown by Harare's Junta - The Australian
Zimbabwe's opposition last night feared a new crackdown as authorities vowed to "get tough" on perpetrators of political violence in the approach to this month's run-off election. As a leading rights group warned mounting violence had extinguished chances of a free and fair ballot, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change said a vow by authorities to deny bail to anyone suspected of committing or inciting unrest would be used to further hamper their election campaign.
Fair Runoff Vote in Impossible - Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times
Persistent violence by government agents and supporters is making it impossible for Zimbabwe to hold a fair presidential runoff election this month, according to a report released Monday by New York-based Human Rights Watch. The study, which included interviews with victims, details violence against opposition supporters across the country and the creation of "no-go zones" in rural areas to deny access to foreign journalists and human rights workers and prevent them from witnessing the abuses.
Fair Poll Impossible in Zimbabwe - Barry Moody, Reuters
A systematic government campaign of murder and brutality has eliminated any chance of a fair presidential election in Zimbabwe, an international rights group said on Monday. A report by US-based Human Rights Watch said it had documented at least 36 politically-motivated murders and 2,000 victims of a campaign of killings, abductions, beatings and torture by the ruling ZANU-PF party of President Robert Mugabe. It said more than 3,000 people had fled the violence which began after March 29 elections in which ZANU-PF lost control of parliament for the first time and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai beat Mugabe in the presidential race.
Center to Help Repatriated Refugees - Hilary Stohs-Krause, Washington Times
The International Organization for Migration has opened a reception site near the Zimbabwe-Botswana border, as neighboring countries push Zimbabwean refugees back into the economically ruined and violence scarred country they attempted to flee. About 4,000 Zimbabwean migrants are deported from Botswana every month, according to the IOM, and they need help. Violence is on the rise in Zimbabwe, as the government cracks down on political opposition before June 27 runoff elections, in which President Robert Mugabe is attempting to extend his 28-year rule.
US, EU to call for UN Monitors in Zimbabwe - Ingrid Melander, Reuters
The United States and European Union plan a joint call for UN monitors to be sent to Zimbabwe after a human rights group alleged systematic government murder and brutality ahead of a presidential vote. "We urge the United Nations Secretary-General to send a team immediately to monitor human rights and to deter further abuses," said the final draft of a communique to be issued at a US-EU summit in Slovenia on Tuesday.
Somali Government and Foes Sign Deal - Elizaeth Kennedy, Associated Press
Somalia's government signed an agreement Monday with an opposition alliance calling for an end to violence and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, whose presence has stoked an increasingly bloody Islamic insurgency. The deal is an important step toward peace, but it remains to be seen if it will be respected by hard-line members of the opposition who have denounced those who took part in the UN-led talks in Djibouti. Al-Shabab, the military wing of Somalia's ousted Islamic movement, did not participate in the Djibouti talks. The State Department considers al-Shabab, or "The Youth," a terrorist organization.
Somali Factions Sign Peace Deal in Djibouti - Omar Hassan, Reuters
Somalia's interim government and some opposition figures signed a peace deal on Monday that called for the rapid deployment of a robust UN stabilization force in the Horn of Africa nation. It was the latest in a string of such agreements. Opposition hardliners in exile and insurgents inside Somalia had dismissed the UN-led talks in Djibouti so it was unclear what effect it might have on the ground.
Islamist Head Rejects UN-sponsored Pact - Aweys Yusuf, Reuters
A hardline Islamist leader rejected on Tuesday a UN-brokered peace pact signed in Djibouti by the Somali government and some opposition figures, and vowed that war would continue. "We don't see that as a peace deal, we see it as a trap," Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys told Reuters by phone from Eritrea. "We encourage the insurgents and the Somali people not to be tired of combating the enemy."
Nigerian Militants Seize Oil Vessel With 8 Sailors - Reuters
Armed militants in southern Nigeria ambushed an oil vessel belonging to Canada's Addax Petroleum Corp. on Monday and are holding eight naval personnel on board, a navy spokesman said. "Some naval ratings escorting an Addax boat were ambushed by militants who boarded the ship. There was limited exchange of gunfire because of the combustible nature of the cargo," Nigerian navy spokesman Henry Babalola said. He said the vessel had left the Calabar area near Nigeria's southeastern border with Cameroon and was heading towards Onne in Rivers state, part of the Niger Delta which is home to Africa's biggest oil industry.
AMERICAS
Chavez Tells FARC to Free Hostages - Chris Kraul, Los Angeles Times
Chased by the US-backed armed forces, this country's largest rebel group is now under pressure to surrender from a surprising new source - President Hugo Chavez of neighboring Venezuela. During his nine years in office, the populist Chavez has regularly expressed support for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. Just months ago, he was pressing for steps that would lead to the FARC's being recognized as a belligerent, and no longer designated a terrorist group, as it is now by the US. But Chavez surprised analysts and government officials when he advised the rebels to unconditionally release more than 700 hostages, lay down their weapons and make peace after 44 years of fighting.
Will Colombia Rebels Heed Chavez's Call? - Frank Bajak, Associated Press
The bearded Marxist intellectual who has just taken command of Latin America's last major guerrilla army has been put on the spot by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who is calling on him to abandon armed struggle. Alfonso Cano and his lieutenants, the subjects of an intense manhunt by Colombia's US-supported military, are believed to be isolated in jungle and mountain hideaways. Their rebels are hunkered down as well, holding scores of hostages as human shields against increasingly successful attacks.
US Welcomes Chavez Comments on Colombian Rebels - Reuters
The United States welcomed on Monday statements by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez urging Colombian rebels to free hostages, but Washington said Caracas should also distance itself from the rebel group. Colombia accuses the anti-US Chavez of supporting the rebels, known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. But on Sunday he urged them to release unconditionally all prisoners from jungle camps, saying Colombia's decades-old civil war was anachronistic.
Chávez Goes Over the Line, and Realizes It - Simon Romero, New York Times
President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela started this month as the most prominent political supporter of Colombia’s largest rebel group and a fierce defender of his own overhaul of his nation’s intelligence services. But in the space of a few hours over the weekend, he confounded his critics by switching course on both contentious policies. In doing so, Mr. Chávez displayed a willingness for self-reinvention that has served him well in times of crisis throughout his long political career. Time and again, he has gambled by pushing brash positions and policies, then shifted to a more moderate course when the consequences seemed too dire.
Thousands of Bolivians Protest at US Embassy - Ana Maria Fabbri, Reuters
Thousands of supporters of leftist president Evo Morales protested outside the US Embassy in La Paz on Monday, demanding the United States send home for trial two right-wing Bolivian politicians. The protest followed comments by former Defense Minister Carlos Sanchez Berzain, who told a local radio station last week that a US court had granted him political asylum. The protesters blame Sanchez Berzain and former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, who also lives in the United States, for the deaths of 60 people and wounding of hundreds more in an army clampdown on anti-government protests in 2003.
ASIA PACIFIC
Islamists Protest as Sect Escapes Ban - Stephen Fitzpatrick, The Australian
Hardline Indonesian Islamists are up in arms after a long-awaited government ruling last night on the controversial Ahmadiyah sect failed to ban the group. Demonstrators in Jakarta and elsewhere have been calling for the movement to be outlawed, after a recommendation to that effect by a government religious advisory body some weeks ago. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has had to walk a fine line between appeasing Indonesia's Muslim heartland in order to win re-election to office next year - that is, by banning the group - and respecting the constitutional right to freedom of religious expression.
Indonesia Cracks Down on Minority Muslim Sect - Peter Gelling, New York Times
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono signed a decree Monday ordering members of a minority Muslim sect to stop practicing their form of Islam or face arrest. Ahmadiyah members, who do not believe Muhammad is the last prophet, a central tenet of mainstream Islam, have been the victims of violent attacks in recent years by extremists. Mr. Yudhoyono, who is expected to seek re-election next year, has been caught between moderate Muslim and human rights groups fighting for pluralism in Indonesia and hard-line Muslim organizations calling for the country to adopt Sharia law and become an Islamic state.
China's Local Leaders Hold Absolute Power - Edward Cody, Washington Post
China's leaders have said the country is evolving politically, without setting any timetable for reforms. In the meantime, they have interpreted their hosting of the Olympic Games in August as an international endorsement of their contention that the pace must be slow. For the moment, as Zhang's time in Xifeng showed, the top-down Communist system still insists on concentrating power in the hands of party functionaries who manage local politics and finances beyond challenge from the law. The party has carried out numerous reforms in recent years to improve the competence of such officials and guarantee their honesty. The May 12 earthquake in central China has become an obvious test of these reforms; leaders have warned that party officials will be judged by their response to the disaster.
Rudd's Asia Agenda - Andrew Shearer, Wall Street Journal opinion
Kevin Rudd has made much of his diplomatic abilities and his knowledge of Asia – including his fluency in Mandarin. So it's a sign of how seriously he's run off course in only six months in office that he finds himself in Tokyo and Jakarta this week trying to patch things up with Australia's most important regional partners, one of which happens to be the world's second-largest economy. Mr. Rudd is trying to dispel the growing impression around the region that his government is deliberately tilting toward China and away from Australia's democratic partners. That such an impression exists at all is a symptom of Mr. Rudd's surprising diplomatic clumsiness.
EUROPE
Slovenia Is First Stop On Bush's Final Tour - Dan Eggen, Washington Post
President Bush opened a farewell tour of Europe on Monday night in this tiny, picturesque nation, which is basking in its status as the current head of the European Union and the most successful state to emerge from the violent breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Home to just 2 million people, the alpine country is hosting this week's annual summit between the United States and the 27-nation European Union. The two sides will debate such issues as the Iranian nuclear program and a ban on US poultry imports, though officials expect few firm agreements. Slovenia and some of its neighbors are urging the United States to ease visa restrictions on former Communist bloc nations.
Pentagon: Russia Strengthening Nuclear Arsenal - Kristin Roberts, Reuters
Russia appears focused on strengthening its nuclear capabilities rather than building up its regular armed forces, which makes maintaining the US nuclear arsenal increasingly important, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Monday. The Pentagon chief, speaking to Air Force officers in Virginia, said America's need for nuclear weapons to deter potential enemies from striking would grow in the future.
A Robust Atlantic Alliance - Matthew Kaminski, Wall Street Journal opinion
George W. Bush's five-country farewell tour of Europe this week has Pavlov's pundits barking. In Britain's Guardian newspaper, Timothy Garton Ash distills the conventional wisdom that "so much of the [post-9/11] dust-up [with Europe] had to do with Bush himself: his unilateralism, his obsession with Iraq, his cowboy style, his incompetence." Not since Ronald Reagan has America had a less "European" president. Such bad press plays into the election-year narrative of friends lost and alliances tarnished in the Bush era. So how's this for an inconvenient truth: This American president will bequeath his successor an alliance with Europe as robust and healthy as at any time in the post-Cold War period.
Fuel Prices Halt 3 French Naval Missions - Gaelle Faure, Associated Press
The French navy canceled three summer missions Monday because of soaring fuel prices - including a counternarcotics exercise off the United States. The ripple effects of spiraling fuel prices are also being felt in Spain, where truckers and fishermen are striking in protest. "All of our missions are important, but we had to cut those that were least crucial," said navy spokesman Pascal Subtil.
MIDDLE EAST
Rice to Hold Talks with Israeli, Palestinian Teams - Reuters
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice plans to hold a three-way meeting next week with the chief Israeli and Palestinian negotiators, a senior Palestinian official said on Monday. Marred by disputes over Jewish settlement expansion and violence in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, US-backed peace talks have shown little sign of progress since they were launched at a conference in Annapolis, Maryland in November. A corruption investigation of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert could trigger new elections, dimming the chances of a deal this year, Israeli, Palestinian and Western officials say.
Parents of Captive Israeli Soldier Get Letter - Aron Heller, Associated Press
The parents of an Israeli soldier who is being held by Hamas-allied militants received a letter from him Monday, delivered by representatives of former President Jimmy Carter. Cpl. Gilad Schalit was abducted near the Gaza border almost two years ago. He has not been seen since, but a recording of his voice and two letters he wrote have been released. Hamas handed over the letter as part of a promise it gave Carter during a meeting in April.
US Eyes Possible New Trainer Aircraft for Israel - Reuters
The Pentagon told the Congress on Monday that it was proposing to supply Israel up to 25 T-6A Texan trainer aircraft and related gear worth up to $190 million. Principal contractors would include Hawker Beechcraft Corp and United Technologies Corp's' Pratt & Whitney unit, the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a notice. The T-6A would slash Israel's training fuel requirements 66 percent, the agency said. Israel "has requested a possible sale" of the single-engine turboprop T-6A trainers to replace its Zukit fleet built in the early 1960s.
Israel's Syria Card - Washington Post editorial
As the challenge from Iran has grown, the United States and its allies have repeatedly been tantalized by the possibility of driving a wedge between Tehran and its chief Arab ally, Syria. The two countries work together to sponsor the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip; removing Syria from the equation could cripple Iran's bid to become the dominant power in the Middle East. The problem is how to move the murderous and corrupt regime of Bashar al-Assad, which hosts Hamas's leadership and is under investigation by the United Nations for assassinating Lebanese politicians. Sanctions against Syria have been too weak to be effective, and most of the political bribes that might interest Mr. Assad would be self-defeating - such as allowing him to restore Syria's political hegemony over Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia Building Nukes? - Edward Markey, Wall Street Journal opinion
Here's a quick geopolitical quiz: What country is three times the size of Texas and has more than 300 days of blazing sun a year? What country has the world's largest oil reserves resting below miles upon miles of sand? And what country is being given nuclear power, not solar, by President George W. Bush, even when the mere assumption of nuclear possession in its region has been known to provoke pre-emptive air strikes, even wars? If you answered Saudi Arabia to all of these questions, you're right.
Yemen Convicts 13 Shiites of Plotting Attacks - Ahmed al-Haj, Associated Press
A Yemeni security court on Monday convicted 13 Shiite rebels of plotting terrorist attacks, sentencing one of them to death, a judicial official said. The defendants, including one woman, were followers of the late radical Shiite cleric Hussein Badr Eddin al-Hawthi and formed a terror cell to attack government facilities, assassinate military leaders and poison water supplies feeding army camps, the official said.
SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan Lawyers in 'Long March' - BBC News
Thousands of lawyers have started rallies and protests across Pakistan to demand the reinstatement of senior judges sacked last year. In Karachi, the protesters left the city in a fleet of vehicles, chanting slogans against President Musharraf for tampering with the judiciary. They were joined by members of some opposition groups. The lawyers say their rallies - named the long march - will reach the capital, Islamabad, later this week.
WORLD
Global Economy Drives Rise in Arms Spending - Malin Rising, Associated Press
Global weapons spending rose 6 percent last year but a growing consensus on the need for arms control offered hope for disarmament, a Swedish think tank said Monday. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said nations spent $1.3 trillion on weapons in 2007. It attributed the rise partly to a strong global economy, which allowed countries to spend more on arms. The institute said in its annual report on military spending that there was "a broadening consensus... that more serious and effective arms control and disarmament measures" were needed.
RECOMMENDED READING
KeepNet 8 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar
More great reading from a SWJ friend.
Recommended Reading - Mark Safranski, ZenPundit
More great reading from a SWJ friend.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
17-19 June 208 - 3rd Annual North American Security Colloquium: Wars Without Borders (Public Event). Kingston, Ontario. Sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Queen's Centre for International Relations, and Defence Management Studies at Queen's University, and the Canadian 'Forces' Land Doctrine and Training System. The conflicts today in Iraq and in Afghanistan are examples of what some leading scholars and many commanders have termed “continuous wars among the people.” This type of conflict is developing or occurring in other regions of the world, in Africa and in Latin America for example. In many of these situations traditional and legal borders no longer define or contain the conflict, nor do obvious sovereign entities control belligerents. International commitments to control these conflicts necessarily demand complex, multi-dimensional diplomatic, military, police, and humanitarian responses. What has been learned about such conflicts from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may to some degree be transferable to conflicts in other regions. Assuming that the international community may well face future operations characterized by regional, borderless “wars among the people”, the centres at Queen’s University and their partners propose convening a distinguished group of approximately 200 experts from academic, military, governmental, and international institutions to examine how best to prepare commanders, military units and governments to plan for and conduct complex, multi-dimensional stability campaigns in this new environment.
24-25 June - 16th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Wargame (Public Event - Wargame). Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). The purpose of the war game series is to provide education and familiarization to members of the Association concerning current issues, capabilities, and expeditionary force trends in the United States Marine Corpsand to identify areas where NDIA can provide assistance. The Purpose of the 2008 NDIA Expeditionary Warfare Division/USMC War Game is to examine C2 Integration issues concerning Sensor Fusion, Information Management, and Fusion and the Commander's Visualization Requirements and Realities using seabased Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief operations at the MEB level for a background.
11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. There will be a $30 conference fee. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.
16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.