IRAQ
With Toll Down, US More Optimistic - Gordon Lubold, Christian Science Monitor
The "surge" of American troops in Iraq last year winds to a close next month when the last two surge brigades redeploy home. Security conditions in the Iraq they are leaving are much improved over those the extra troops encountered when they arrived, say analysts and defense officials, many of whom are confident that trend will continue even without the extra US troops.
US Nets 2 al-Qaida, Shiite Militia Leader - Lauren Frayer, Associated Press
American troops grabbed two al-Qaida in Iraq bombing suspects and a Shiite militia leader Tuesday in separate raids north and south of Baghdad, the US military said. The command also said US soldiers killed four other suspects a day earlier after coming under fire from machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades in Shiite sections of the capital. The troops seized dozens of rifles and several rounds of ammunition, the statement said.
Iraq Says Likely to Miss Deadline for US Pact - Reuters
A July target for negotiating an agreement on future relations between Iraq and the United States is likely to be missed, an Iraqi government spokesman said on Tuesday. US and Iraqi officials began talks in March on twin agreements on the status of US military forces in Iraq after 2008 and a strategic framework agreement that defines long-term bilateral ties.
Kurd PM Says Ready for Power-sharing in Kirkuk - Reuters
The prime minister of Iraq's Kurdish region said on Tuesday Kurds were willing to share power with Arabs in the city of Kirkuk -- a focus of rivalry between ethnic groups, largely because of its considerable oil wealth. Kurds, a minority in Iraq as a whole, see Kirkuk as their ancient capital and had led the push for a referendum to establish control. Arabs encouraged to move to Kirkuk under Saddam Hussein want it to stay under Baghdad's control.
Daughters of Iraq - Alexandra Zavis, Los Angeles Times
The two women couldn't be less alike: Melath Dulaimi is a single woman in her mid-30s who wears a knee-length skirt, strappy sandals and refuses to cover her hair. Lekaa Mohammed is a retiring widow draped in a navy blue veil and concealing robes. But when the US military advertised for women to join its neighborhood guard program last fall, both answered the call.
US Opens Site For Processing Refugees - Paley and Pincus, Washington Post
The US government has opened its first permanent office here for Iraqi refugees seeking to settle in the United States, responding to criticism that the Bush administration has failed to help thousands of Iraqis whose lives are in danger because of their work with American organizations. The office, which began interviewing applicants May 10, has already finished processing 80 embassy employees for departure, and the first two arrived in the United States this week.
US Says Iraq Should Promote Refugees' Return - Reuters
The United States is admitting more Iraqi refugees than before, but Iraq should step up its efforts to encourage its citizens living abroad to come home, the senior US coordinator for Iraqi refugee issues said on Tuesday. Ambassador James Foley said the United States, which has been criticized for its slow pace in admitting Iraqi refugees, was confident it would meet a goal of admitting 12,000 by the end of September. While the number of people fleeing Iraq has slowed since last fall, partly because of security improvements, there has not been a significant pattern of refugees returning, Foley told a news briefing.
Why We Went to Iraq - Fouad Ajami, Wall Street Journal opinion
Of all that has been written about the play of things in Iraq, nothing that I have seen approximates the truth of what our ambassador to Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, recently said of this war: "In the end, how we leave and what we leave behind will be more important than how we came." It is odd, then, that critics have launched a new attack on the origins of the war at precisely the time a new order in Iraq is taking hold. But American liberal opinion is obsessive today.
Mahdi Army Fighters Killed in New Baghdad - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
The US military continues to target the Mahdi Army in Baghdad and the South as the Iraqi Army works to destroy Mahdi Army weapons caches inside Sadr City. US troops killed four Mahdi Army fighters in Baghdad while 39 Mahdi Army operatives were captured in Baghdad, Al Kut, Samawah, and Basrah. US soldiers killed four Mahdi Army fighters during two separate engagements in the New Baghdad district. Two of the Mahdi fighters were killed after attacking US soldiers in the Shawra Uldir neighborhood with small-arms fire. The other two were killed after attacking US forces with rocket propelled grenades in the same neighborhood.
McGinnis’s Medal of Honor - Max Boot, Contentions
President Bush yesterday awarded a Medal of Honor to Army Specialist Ross McGinnis for awe-inspiring courage during the Iraq War. In 2006 a grenade was thrown into McGinnis’s Humvee and instead of escaping, he jumped on the explosive, thus saving his fellow crew members but sacrificing his own life. He is the fifth soldier to receive a Medal of Honor for actions in Iraq or Afghanistan. What do they all have in common other than their display of bravery far above and beyond the call of duty? Like McGinnis, all of the other medal recipients died in the course of their actions.
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS
US General Takes over NATO Command - Jason Straziuso, Associated Press
The US general who led American troops into Iraq took command Tuesday of the 40-nation NATO-led campaign in Afghanistan. Army Gen. David D. McKiernan took charge of the 51,000-member International Security Assistance Force from Gen. Dan McNeill, who will retire from the US Army after 40 years.
The Other Enemy - Ralph Peters, Armed Forces Journal
Can we win in Afghanistan? It’s an odd question, considering that we’ve already won, by historical standards. Yet unrealistic metrics of success continue to pile up, fabricated in ignorance - often willful and even spiteful - of Afghan reality. Political partisans intent on scoring points and media figures desperate for headlines demand the impossible (and not only in Afghanistan.) Increasingly, the greatest obstacle to success in trouble spots where our troops are engaged is our own unwillingness to accept that wars never yield perfect results and rarely yield permanent change. Unaware of historical precedent and dismissing practical limitations, we increasingly insist on ideal transformations of broken states and regions where reasonable progress is the only fair measure of success. Staying with the Afghan example, a sensible assessment of the possible begins with the recognition that no such country exists or ever has in the sense of statehood familiar to us.
Global Aspirations of Tehrik-i-Taliban - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal
Now with the “peace accord” between Mehsud and Pakistan, Baitullah has said that he intends to send fighters to Afghanistan to assist in the insurgency. It was merely a matter of time before Pakistan helped to implement his broader plan. His brand of Islam doesn’t recognize borders. “Islam does not recognize boundaries”… “There can be no deal with the United States.”
Who's Up in Afghanistan? - Noah Shachtman, Danger Room
Are things getting better in Afghanistan -- or worse? On the one hand, you have the Telegraph and the New York Times reporting that the Taliban is "on the brink of defeat" and "fleeing to the Pakistani border after being routed in recent operations by the United States Marines." On the other, it looks like this year's spring offensive by the "most lethal... in the six year conflict," NightWatch notes.
IRAN
Ahmadinejad Condemns Israel, US - Tracy Wilkinson, Los Angeles Times
Shunned by his hosts and targeted by street demonstrations, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday used a U.N. conference to again condemn Israel and the United States as bellicose regimes on the brink of demise. Ahmadinejad wasted no time in making his mark on the United Nations food summit in Rome, where world leaders gathered to tackle the crisis of global hunger. He told attendees that food and fuel prices are kept artificially high by greedy powers with "devilish motivations" who should be replaced with "righteous and justice-seeking managers."
Rice Calls Dialogue With Iran Pointless - Cooper and Kershner, New York Times
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice escalated the Bush administration’s anti-Iran rhetoric on Tuesday, accusing its government of pursuing nuclear weapons and calling any dialogue with its leaders pointless until they suspend the country’s enrichment of uranium. While Ms. Rice’s message was familiar, the tone of her speech, before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, was unusually sharp, taking oblique aim at Senator Barack Obama and other Democratic leaders who have called for the United States to engage Iran diplomatically.
Religious Leader Says Nuclear Program Peaceful - Nazila Fathi, New York Times
Iran’s supreme religious leader vowed Tuesday that his country would pursue a peaceful atomic energy program and had no interest in nuclear weapons, calling them expensive and useless. The remarks by the leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, did not represent any change in Iran’s official position, but were unusual because he said them publicly, just a few days before the major world powers were expected to offer Iran new incentives to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
THE LONG WAR
Hybrid Warfare Demands Indirect Approach - Robert Killebrew, Armed Forces Journal
Recent discussions about military advisers and advising allied security forces would benefit from some context. It would be useful to put the larger subject of military assistance into a discussion of future military strategy. First, no matter how we deal with future military strategies, the reality is that we must deal first with the 50-meter target of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Without descending into the Strategy 101 morass of defining victory, the wars there have got to be won, and the U.S. and its armed forces must do whatever it takes to do so. Title 10 concerns about rebuilding the Army and strategizing beyond the current wars will all be useless if we lose and the U.S. becomes a defeated nation. I speak from bitter experience: Losing cuts into a nation’s soul, cuts its willingness to lead in foreign affairs, and cuts as well into our nation’s willingness to fund its armed forces. Have we forgotten the wilderness years after Vietnam? If history is any guide, the willingness of the government to fund reset of our land forces will be questionable if we are driven out of Iraq, particularly. So even if the wheels fall off vehicles at Fort Hood, Texas, our overseas commanders have got to get the troops and materiel they need to fight both wars to a successful conclusion.
The New Face of Islam - Dickey and Matthews, Newsweek
Back in the mid-1990s, Osama bin Laden had a problem, and it was Islam. He wanted to say the Qur'an gave his followers license to kill innocents - and themselves - in the cause of "jihad." That was how he could justify his global campaign of terror. But that's not what the Muslim holy book says, and that's not the way it was interpreted by any of the great scholars and preachers of the faith. So bin Laden set about spinning the revelations contained in the Qur'an and the sayings of the Prophet Muhammad, known as the Hadith, which provide much of the context for actual religious practice in the Muslim world. The Saudi millionaire wrote a diatribe that he called a declaration of war and then a fatwa, or religious edict, cherry-picking quotations from Islamic Scripture and calling on dubious scholars to back him up. The tracts were political propaganda, not theology, but for his purpose they worked very well. The apocalyptic notion of holy war he promoted - and the reality of it that he demonstrated on 9/11 - became the dominant vision of Islam for those with little understanding of the faith, whether in the West or, indeed, the Muslim world. Even many religious scholars were intimidated. Now that's starting to change.
9/11 Mastermind Prepares for Arraignment - Michael Melia, Associated Press
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who could face the death penalty for his role in the Sept. 11 attacks, has been peppering his lawyer with questions in advance of his arraignment Thursday before a military tribunal. It will be the first public appearance for the No. 3 al-Qaida leader since his capture in 2003, and his lawyer, Navy Capt. Prescott Prince, told The Associated Press that he doesn't know what Mohammed will say when he addresses the judge Thursday with dozens of journalists in attendance.
Detainee to be Charged with War Crimes - Carol Williams, Los Angeles Times
The Pentagon announced Tuesday that it planned to charge an Ethiopian educated in the United States and Britain with war crimes, including an alleged Al Qaeda plot to unleash a "dirty bomb" and blow up apartment buildings in US cities. Binyam Mohammed, whose repatriation to Britain was sought by Prime Minister Gordon Brown last year, could face life in prison if convicted on the charges of conspiracy and material support for terrorism.
US Charges British Resident at Gitmo - Michael Melia, Associated Press
US military prosecutors at Guantanamo Bay have filed war-crimes charges against a former British resident accused of plotting with al-Qaida to bomb apartment buildings in the United States, the Pentagon said Tuesday. Ethiopian national Binyam Mohamed, 30, was charged despite a request from the British government last year to release him from the US Navy base in southeast Cuba.
Guantanamo Is a Model Prison (Really) - Mark Busby, Wall Street Journal opinion
There is much talk in the media, in our capital and elsewhere about the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. I have paid close attention to this dialogue, and after a year in command, it is clear that there are two Guantanamos: the one that exists in popular culture, and the one most discover when they actually see conditions there. We house enemy combatants in one of several facilities according to their compliance with camp rules. Highly compliant detainees, approximately 20% of the population, live in Camp 4. Here they enjoy a communal, barracks-style environment, with movie nights, classes in Pashtu, Arabic and English, shared meals and prayers, and up to 12 hours of recreation per day.
The Counterterrorism Paradox - Brian Burton, Armed Forces Journal
Almost seven years after the 9/11 attacks, the primary military manifestations of America’s global war on terrorism are the seemingly interminable campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet there is little evidence that these operations are doing much to reduce the international terrorist threat to America’s homeland, people and interests. International terrorism cannot be neutralized through large-scale employment of armed forces. What these wars have demonstrated is that the US does not possess a clear understanding of the threat environment, nor does it have an effective overall strategy or appropriate military forces to mitigate this threat. America faces a threat that is globally diffuse and adaptable. It is, therefore, necessary for the US to adopt a subtler strategy that enlists the aid of allies around the world, and develop similarly subtle forces to counter terrorist groups abroad.
IRREGULAR WARFARE
Lies, Damned Lies and COIN - Robert Chamberlain, Armed Forces Journal
It has become a matter of conventional wisdom that insurgencies last an average of 10 years and that the insurgents win about 40 percent of the time. These statistics have appeared in USA Today, PBS, Pentagon media briefings and on National Public Radio. The insight these numbers are meant to convey is that counterinsurgencies are inherently long and difficult struggles against wily and resilient foes, so it is unrealistic to expect rapid, quantifiable progress in the near term. Fortunately, these statistics are misleading and the associated analysis is wrong. The source of this mistaken conventional wisdom is the prestigious Dupuy Institute, which has been providing rigorous quantitative analysis to the military for more than 40 years. In May 2007, Dupuy researchers published the preliminary results of a study in which they examined 63 modern insurgencies for a variety of factors, including the longevity and the success rate of the conflicts. Given their analytical talent and track record of precision, their statistical computations are undoubtedly accurate. The problem, however, isn’t with their math; it’s with the initial selection of cases.
COIN Behind Bars - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama
Over the past year, the US military has attempted to apply COIN principles inside detention facilities in Iraq. These steps were initiated by MajGen Doug Stone, the Marine in charge of MNF-I's detention ops. The idea was to not just prevent Abu Ghraib-style abuses, but also stop detention centers from becoming "jihad U," producing more insurgents than they took off the streets. The controversial system Stone put in place sought to expedite review of cases, physically separate extremists from reconcilables behind bars, mentally separate them by providing anti-extremist Islamic literacy classes, and reduce recidivism by providing education and vocational training to ease reintegration
US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
An Odd Prescription - Seth Cropsey, Armed Forces Journal
The House Armed Services Committee, chaired by the venerable and serious Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., established a panel in 2007 to look at the military’s roles and missions. The panel reported its findings early this year and sought responses from AFJ readers [“Request for proposals,” US Rep. Jim Cooper, March.] Observing that “every twenty or thirty years, we seem to realize that our national security institutions are driven not by our country’s strategic needs, but by petty organizational interests, political expediency, or plain inertia,” the roles and missions panel concluded that the time for additional military reform - a “Goldwater-Nichols II” is mentioned specifically - has arrived. This may be true. However, the report looks firmly to the past not only to measure whatever ails the military today, but also as the fundamental answer to today’s - and tomorrow’s - problems. Rivalry between the military services, the report says, was, and remains, the obstacle to effectiveness. The 1940s Revolt of the Admirals poisoned the atmosphere needed for reform for decades. Passage of the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols legislation was a miracle. US combatant commanders need more bureaucratic/budgetary heft. Creating a new staff position as advocate for future joint warfare might solve the problem.
Why Presidents No Longer Fire Generals - Robert Bateman, Armed Forces Journal
The financial cost of this conflict, by even conservative measures, is approaching that of our largest war. The human cost, although lower as an absolute than many other wars imposed, also has taken a heavy toll on our all-volunteer professional military. In many ways one could consider this conflict, even at this point, one of the largest endeavors the nation ever attempted. In one area, however, the current conflict is anomalous. We have retained nearly all our generals (and admirals) throughout the fight. Only a single brigadier general has been relieved for the performance of duty in a combat zone. Historically speaking, that is a curious fact.
Gates Backs Changes for Korea Troops - Eric Schmitt, New York Times
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Tuesday that he supported extending the tours of thousands of troops stationed here to three years and allowing their spouses and children to live with them during their assignments. Mr. Gates’s endorsement adds new momentum to a policy shift favored by commanders to improve the quality of life for most of the 28,500 troops assigned here on unaccompanied 12-month tours because South Korea is considered a combat zone.
For Liberals, Soldiers Are Victims - Jeffrey Schmidt, Real Clear Politics opinion
For liberals, war is a no-win proposition. Since Vietnam, a compromised and venal United States engages in conflicts with enemies -- if they can be called that -- who are, at the very least, the nation's moral equivalents or, perhaps, like the Communist North Vietnamese, its superiors. Soldiers, when not despised by liberals (again, see Vietnam) are pitied as dupes, under-educated and unemployable youths who sought paychecks in the military. And the consequences for these youths being duped into military service? Mental and emotional illness, drug and alcohol addiction, rage and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. In fact, the latter is practically a rite of passage for men and women exiting the military, or so seems the liberal belief.
AUSTRALIA DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE
Push to Join ASEAN Defence Talks - Patrick Walters, The Australian
Australia wants to join the annual ASEAN defence ministers meeting in a move that would help cement Canberra's security ties with Southeast Asia. Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon said yesterday he was keen to explore the idea of Australian membership of the two-year-old forum with his 10 ASEAN counterparts. He said he had had informal discussions on the ADMM issue during last weekend's Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual conference in Singapore involving regional defence ministers and military chiefs. The aim would be to have Australia and New Zealand join the ADMM in an "ASEAN-Plus" meeting, which would link ASEAN with the South Pacific's principal defence players.
AFRICA
Zimbabwe Curbs Many Aid Groups - Celia Dugger, New York Times
Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Zimbabweans — orphans and old people, the sick and the down and out — have lost access to food and other basic humanitarian assistance as their government has clamped down on international aid groups it says are backing the political opposition, relief agencies say. In recent days, CARE, one of the largest nonprofit groups working in the country, has been ordered by the Zimbabwean government to suspend all its operations, which help 500,000 of the country’s most vulnerable people. This month alone, CARE would have fed more than 110,000 people in schools, orphanages, old-age homes and in various programs, it said.
Mugabe Accuses West - Richard Owen, Times of London
Robert Mugabe used a UN world food conference in Rome yesterday to accuse Britain and its Western allies of trying to topple him through “illegal regime change” by crippling Zimbabwe economically. There was also serious criticism from a more authoritative source when Jacques Diouf, the head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, accused the West of getting its priorities wrong, worrying about climate change, cars and biofuels at the expense of feeding the poor.
Mugabe Blames West for Food Shortages - Frances D'Emilio, Associated Press
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, whose authoritarian rule has brought widespread hunger to his country, defended his policy of seizing land from whites on Tuesday, saying he is undoing a legacy of Zimbabwe's former colonial masters. Mugabe spoke to world leaders at a UN summit on the global food crisis against a backdrop of sharp criticism over his participation. Once hailed as a hero of African liberation, Mugabe has come to be widely reviled for presiding over the collapse of Africa's one-time bread basket into a nation where millions go hungry.
Robert Mugabe's Reckoning Looms - Mary Riddell, Daily Telegraph opinion
How pleased the starving of Bulawayo will be that the British Foreign Office is considering stripping Robert Mugabe of his honorary knighthood. How gratified they must feel that the Development Secretary, Douglas Alexander, won't be shaking his hand at the United Nations' world food summit in Rome. On the other hand, Zimbabweans might have more pressing concerns, such as staying alive. With the country's run-off election imminent, the tyrant's henchmen are out canvassing, Mugabe-style. Thousands of political opponents have fled. Activists have reportedly had their eyes gouged out. Morgues fill with the bodies of the disappeared.
Somali Groups Seek UN Sanctions - Louis Charbonneau, Reuters
Somali civil groups urged the UN Security Council on Tuesday to impose sanctions on political leaders opposed to peace talks and to call for the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces backing the interim government. The Somali government had said it hoped for a peace deal after members of the 15-nation Council met separately with its officials and opposition critics on Monday in Djibouti. But leaders of the Islamist al Shabaab insurgent group and more hardline elements of the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) were absent. The opposition figures who did attend demanded Ethiopian forces leave Somalia.
Prosecutor Links Government to Darfur Crimes - John Heilprin, Associated Press
The chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court charges that "the whole state apparatus" of Sudan is implicated in crimes against humanity in the Darfur region, linking the government directly with the feared janjaweed militia. Luis Moreno-Ocampo says in a report to the UN Security Council, obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press, that he has uncovered evidence showing "high officials" in the Sudanese government are linked to many horrendous attacks in Darfur.
South Sudan Wants Government Troops Out - Edith Lederer, Associated Press
The leader of Sudan's troubled South called on the country's president Tuesday to pull back government troops in a contested oil-rich border region between the north and south that has been the site of recent fighting. Salva Kiir, who also serves as Sudan's Vice President, said more northern troops were heading from Khartoum, the capital, to Abyei, but dismissed the notion of fighting them, saying the south wants talks.
Sudan's Interlocking Crises - Stephanie Hanson, CFR
Sudanese government troops and southern Sudanese forces have led a tense coexistence for months in the oil-rich area of Abyei, which straddles Sudan's north and south. Accounts of what ignited the recent fighting (Economist) between the two groups differ, but no one disputes the end result: a town destroyed (WashPost), roughly one hundred thousand people displaced, and the probability of civil war on the rise with each passing day. Abyei exemplifies the most contentious elements of a 2005 peace deal between north and south Sudan. Analysts say the town's future is critical to the viability of that agreement, and by extension, prospects for a resolution to the crisis in Darfur.
AMERICAS
US Drug Czar Urges Funds for War on Mexico Cartels - Adriana Garcia, Reuters
White House drug czar John Walters urged the US Congress on Tuesday not to "sabotage" relations with Mexico and pass a $1.4 billion anti-narcotics package to help crush drug cartels. Congress has scaled back the so-called Merida initiative that President George W. Bush proposed in October as a three-year plan to provide Mexico with aircraft, equipment and training to fight drug traffickers.
Mexico at the Brink - New York Times editorial
The War on Drugs may be fading from memory north of the Rio Grande, but south of the river, bloody battles are threatening to overwhelm Mexico’s democratically elected government. The timid assistance package proposed by the Bush administration and pared down by Congress suggests that Washington doesn’t grasp either the scale of the danger or its own responsibilities. President Felipe Calderón’s decision to take on the traffickers shows great courage and a sound understanding of the threat they pose to his country. But he seems to be in over his head. More than 4,000 people, including about 450 members of the police department, have been killed in drug-related violence since he took office a year and a half ago. Just last month, four top security officials were gunned down in Mexico City, including the acting chief of the federal police.
Drug Cartels Siphon Pipelines - Kelly Hearn, Washington Times
Colombian cocaine cartels are tapping into pipelines in neighboring Ecuador, stealing with impunity thousands of gallons a day of "white gas" that can be used to process raw coca into cocaine, Ecuadorean and US officials say. The black market trade in petroleum ether - a solvent used by clandestine cocaine labs - is undermining U.S.-backed counternarcotics efforts in this low-lying jungle border region spanning northeastern Ecuador and southern Colombia.
Intelligence Law Draws Protests - Christopher Toothaker, Associated Press
A new intelligence law that President Hugo Chavez enacted by decree is drawing protests from human rights activists who say it could lead to serious violations of civil liberties and become a tool for cracking down on dissent. Chavez says the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Law will help Venezuela detect and neutralize national security threats, including any assassination attempts or attempted coups. But human rights activists warn that the law infringes on rights to due process and defense.
Chavez: Beginning of the End - Alex Crowther, Strategic Studies Institute opinon
The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, is on the way into the history books. Although he is still positioned to create problems for the Venezuelan people, the Colombians, and others throughout the Western Hemisphere that he chooses to victimize, he is no longer on the ascent.
ASIA PACIFIC
UN: 1 Million in Burma Aren't Getting Basic Aid - Michael Casey, Associated Press
More than 1 million people still don't have adequate food, water or shelter a month after a devastating cyclone swept through Myanmar, and the military junta's policies are hindering relief efforts and driving up the cost of aid operations, the United Nations said Tuesday. Humanitarian groups say they continue to face hurdles from Myanmar's military government in sending disaster experts and vital equipment into the country.
China Shuts Out 2 Lawyers Over Tibetans' Cases - Edward Cody, Washington Post
Chinese judicial authorities have in effect disbarred two activist lawyers who offered to defend Tibetans arrested in a recent Chinese security crackdown, lawyers said Tuesday. The two, Jiang Tianyong and Teng Biao, were denied renewal of the annual licenses necessary to practice law in China because of what Beijing Judicial Bureau officials described as a willingness to take on "sensitive" cases such as those involving charges of human rights abuses by the government, Jiang said.
China: The Beginning of the End - Bruce Gilley, Wall Street Journal opinion
Since 1989, the CCP has been engaged in a constant struggle for legitimacy in the eyes of China's people. That dynamic is the most important one in the politics of China. That new relationship has been in ample display in recent weeks as the government responded with alacrity to the catastrophic earthquake in Sichuan province. Compare that to the response by two of Asia's other autocratic regimes to the cyclone in Burma and to looming starvation in North Korea. The difference is that the latter two still depend upon force and violence to survive. China does not – hence the better response by its government.
Military Alliance with US Boosted - Jong-heon Lee, United Press International
The defense chiefs of South Korea and the United States agreed Tuesday to bolster their alliance, which has been tested over fierce protests here against US beef imports and a revival of anti-American sentiment. At the military talks in Seoul, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said the US would not pull out any additional troops, reaffirming "the solid US commitment to the defense of South Korea."
Proliferation Talks with N. Korea to Continue - Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Tuesday that despite intelligence allegedly showing that North Korea aided Syria in developing a nuclear facility, the United States would continue six-party talks with the communist regime over its nuclear program. Gates called North Korea a "serious adversary," but he said he knew of no evidence that it was sharing nuclear capabilities with other countries besides Syria. The talks are the best way to confront the regime on proliferation issues, he said.
Preparing for the Next Korean War - Christopher Griffen, Armed Forces Journal
It is early 2012, and six months have passed since the death of North Korean tyrant Kim Jong Il. The Korean People’s Army is clearly on the move, but American intelligence officials cannot tell whether it is conducting regular training exercises or if a civil war is breaking out among the post-Kim leadership. Suddenly, a roar breaks the night silence as a salvo of Nodong missiles strikes the mountains of northern Japan. There are no casualties, and North Korea has neither employed weapons of mass destruction nor issued a declaration of war. How does the US and its allies respond? This March, the American Enterprise Institute organized a seminar that posed this question to a group of experts on security in Asia and found the available answers to be dangerously wanting. Although the US has in recent years modernized its military forces in Asia and worked with Japan to expand missile defense in the region, Washington is not ready to deal with many potential crises that could emanate from North Korea.
EUROPE
The Rise of Jihadism in Russia - Dimitri Shilapentokh, Armed Forces Journal
When studying the rise of global jihadism, one often sees the term “Islamofascism.” This label is not very workable and emerges not so much as an explanatory model but as a way to make jihadism as repulsive as possible. An appropriate explanatory model would relate the rise of jihadism in Russia and elsewhere not so much with Nazism or fascism as with a revolutionary movement. The rise of Islamic extremism in Russia is indirectly connected with the end of the Soviet Union, which was not just a transition from totalitarianism to political liberty and a self-policed society but also a collapse. Not only state and societal structures but also the very structure of daily interaction between individuals started to change. Analogues to these events can be found in early modern Europe, when the feudal order, with its hierarchical structure and tightly knit groups that both restrained individuals and provided them with a safety net against the vagaries of life, started to fall apart.
Railroading Georgia - Washington Post editorial
When Dmitry Medvedev took office as Russian president last month, some hoped for a moderation of Moscow's increasingly belligerent foreign policy. The key testing point is the obscure region of Abkhazia, a province of Georgia that rebelled in the 1990s and has maintained de facto independence ever since with Russia's support. In April, responding to NATO's ambivalent answer to a request by Georgia for membership, outgoing President Vladimir Putin launched a series of provocations, first announcing closer relations between the Russian government and Abkhazia's separatist regime and then reinforcing a Russian military force in the province. On April 20, Georgia reported that a Russian warplane shot down a Georgian surveillance drone over Abkhazia, a charge confirmed by a UN investigation last week.
A Balm in Cyprus? - Viola Herms Drath, Washington Times opinion
It remains to be seen whether the election results in the Republic of Cyprus will create the political climate and pragmatic conditions leading to the elusive reunification of the divided island. It is becoming clear, however, that the choice of Greek Cypriot President Demetris Christofias, former popular president of the House of Representatives since 2001 and leader of the communist AKEL party with ties to Moscow, firmly signals that the Greek Cypriot people voted for change.
MIDDLE EAST
3 Suspect Syrian Nuke Sites Off Limits - George Jahn, Associated Press
Syria has told fellow Arab countries that it will not permit an International Atomic Energy Agency probe to extend beyond a site bombed by Israel, despite agency interest in three other suspect locations, diplomats told The Associated Press on Tuesday. The agency's main focus during its planned June 22-24 visit to Syria is a building in the country's remote eastern desert that was destroyed by Israeli jets in September.
Israel and Syria - Washington Times editorial
In some ways, the timing of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Washington visit could hardly be worse. The Israeli leader, who meets today with President Bush at the White House, is in serious political trouble. An inconclusive war with Hezbollah, the Israeli government's inability to stop rocket attacks from Gaza and Israeli court testimony that Mr. Olmert received $150,000 in cash from an American philanthropist have made the Israeli leader a political pariah at home. Polls indicate that more than two-thirds of Israelis want Mr. Olmert to resign, and members of his own Kadima Party speak publicly about holding a primary to choose his successor. Yet despite his tenuous hold on power, Mr. Olmert continues to push forward with a controversial plan for peace negotiations with Syria.
Rice Pushes Peace as Olmert Visits - Jeffrey Heller, Reuters
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made clear on Tuesday Washington will keep pressing for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal despite the corruption scandal dogging Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. In a speech to a leading pro-Israel lobbying group, Rice also called for greater international pressure on Iran to halt its suspected nuclear weapons program, which Israel regards as a major strategic threat.
Israel-Palestine Talks Will Go On - Richard Beeston, Times of London
Israel is prepared to press ahead with Middle East peace negotiations with or without Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister, the country’s Ambassador to London said yesterday. Speaking as the embattled Israeli leader began a three-day visit to America, Ron Prosor said that other potential leaders in the ruling Kadima party would pursue talks with the Palestinians should Mr Olmert be forced from office.
Time for Radical Pragmatism - Thomas Friedman, New York Times
The West Bank today is an ugly quilt of high walls, Israeli checkpoints, “legal” and “illegal” Jewish settlements, Arab villages, Jewish roads that only Israeli settlers use, Arab roads and roadblocks. This hard and heavy reality on the ground is not going to be reversed by any conventional peace process. “The two-state solution is disappearing,” said Mansour Tahboub, senior editor, at the West Bank newspaper Al-Ayyam. Indeed, we are at a point now where the only thing that might work is what I would call “radical pragmatism” — a pragmatism that is as radical and energetic as the extremism that it hopes to nullify. Without that, I fear, Israel will remain permanently pregnant with a stillborn Palestinian state in its belly.
Shakeups in the Egyptian MB - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark
Reports are swirling that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is about to announce a shakeup in its Shura Council, with five new members - all reportedly associated with the conservative "dawa" trend - replacing elderly, deceased, and imprisoned incumbents. This seems to have strengthened the conservative trend at the expense of reformists, and has evidently infuriated many youth activists within the organization. Some of them, including leading Brotherhood blogger Abd el-Monem Mahmoud, suggest that the conservatives are taking advantage of the regime's repression to consolidate their power within the organization and to prevent the emergence of a reformist leadership headed by the imprisoned Khairat al-Shater. This seems to be rapidly developing into one of the sharpest public internal struggle within the MB in years.
SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan Blast Was Suicide Attack - Perlez and Shah, New York Times
The car-bomb attack on the Danish Embassy that killed eight people appears to have been carried out by a suicide bomber, Pakistani investigators and diplomats at Western embassies in Islamabad said Tuesday. A senior Pakistani policeman close to the investigation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because not authorized to comment, said that the vehicle used in the attack — a white Toyota Corolla — had a red license plate designed to resemble a diplomatic plate and passed security guards on the road shortly before the car exploded outside the embassy at about 1 p.m. on Monday.
Benazir Bhutto 'Gave' North Korea Nuclear Data - The Australian
Former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, on a state visit to North Korea in 1993, smuggled in critical data on uranium enrichment - a route to making a nuclear weapon - to help facilitate a missile deal with Pyongyang, according to a new book by a journalist who knew the slain politician well.The assertion, reported in The Washington Post, is based on conversations author Shyam Bhatia had with Bhutto in 2003.
Pakistan's Chronic Crisis - Boston Globe editorial
The car bomb that went off Monday at the Danish embassy in Islamabad was only the latest of several recent signs pointing to Pakistan as a nexus for terrorism and religious extremism. If the bombing in Pakistan's capital can be traced back to Al Qaeda, as officials there seem to believe, it will only underscore Pakistan's need to resolve a mounting identity crisis. Pakistan has been stuck in a disabling contradiction at least since the 1980s, when its military intelligence agency, the ISI, worked with the CIA and Saudi funders to back Afghan and foreign fighters against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. After the Red Army retreated in 1989, America lost interest in Afghanistan. The anti-Soviet mujahideen fell to fighting with each other, until the fanatical Taliban, sponsored by Pakistan's ISI, swept to power in Kabul - with opportune funding from Osama bin Laden.
A New Course for Pakistan - Barton, Samdani, and von Hippel, CSIS
During a two week research trip to Pakistan in mid-April 2008, the PCR team interviewed more than 200 Pakistanis and several dozen expatriates in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Peshawar, Attock, Quetta and Karachi. The team met with the newly elected leadership, former generals, journalists, economists, nationalist leaders, trade unionists, diplomats, university professors, bloggers, ulema, aid workers, security analysts, leaders of the lawyers’ movement, and students at an elementary school, a madrassa, an Afghan refugee primary school, and a university.
WORLD
UN Issues Warning on Food Crisis - Rosenthal and Martin, New York Times
Resolving the global food crisis could cost as much as $30 billion a year and wealthier nations are doing little to help the developing world face the problem, United Nations officials said Tuesday. At a UN food summit attended by dozens of world leaders, Jacques Diouf, head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, opened the meeting by sharply criticizing wealthy nations who he said were cutting back on agriculture programs for the world’s poor and ignoring deforestation - while spending billions on carbon markets, subsidies for farmers and biofuel production.
Leaders Urged to Address Food Crisis - Tracy Wilkinson, Los Angeles Times
World powers must act quickly and boldly to control soaring food prices that threaten nearly 1 billion people with hunger and could trigger devastating social unrest across the globe, the United Nations said Tuesday. At a three-day emergency food summit, UN officials urged nations to eliminate trade barriers, expand biotechnology research and boost production with an annual investment of $20 billion to $30 billion.
A Critical Mass for Disarmament - Joseph Cirincione, Los Angeles Times opinion
Speaking to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council on March 26, Sen. John McCain surprised many listeners when he said that "the United States should lead a global effort at nuclear disarmament." It has been a long time since a Republican candidate for president said anything close to this, let alone seemed to think it would help him win election. But McCain senses what many may have not: This is a rare moment in national and international politics, a period of rapid change that promises a transformation in global nuclear policy.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
4-5 June 208 - 2008 Joint Symposium - Strategic Re-Assessment: From Long-Range Planning to Future Strategy and Forces (Public Event). Washington, D.C. Sponsored by the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the Office of the Secretary of Defense and US Joint Forces Command. Fundamental to the development and implementation of a successful future defense posture is a foundation comprised of a well-reasoned assessment of the future security environment, a clear understanding of the “realm of the possible” for and limitations of military forces, and an understanding of the nation’s security objectives. Developing an appropriate assessment of the future security environment is not something done in a vacuum as it is impossible to fully separate purely military or national security issues from other elements of the national and global environment. This is particularly true for the United States. Technical innovation and adaptation, the rise and decline of other actors on the international stage, domestic politics, globalization and its effects on trade, migration, communications, and the power of nonstate actors all, bear heavily on any security assessment. There is no shortage of assessments of the future security environment. In the last decade, National Defense University itself has produced several, most recently, Strategic Challenges – America’s Global Security Agenda. The objectives of this symposium are to examine some of these strategic assessments, to review our success at incorporating their key elements into strategic and operational plans, and to propose ways to institutionalize best practices into the process for future force development and joint force planning. We will explore these issues through a series of panel discussions and keynote addresses. Featured speakers will include military officers, government officials, and experts from research institutes.
17-19 June 208 - 3rd Annual North American Security Colloquium: Wars Without Borders (Public Event). Kingston, Ontario. Sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Queen's Centre for International Relations, and Defence Management Studies at Queen's University, and the Canadian 'Forces' Land Doctrine and Training System. The conflicts today in Iraq and in Afghanistan are examples of what some leading scholars and many commanders have termed “continuous wars among the people.” This type of conflict is developing or occurring in other regions of the world, in Africa and in Latin America for example. In many of these situations traditional and legal borders no longer define or contain the conflict, nor do obvious sovereign entities control belligerents. International commitments to control these conflicts necessarily demand complex, multi-dimensional diplomatic, military, police, and humanitarian responses. What has been learned about such conflicts from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may to some degree be transferable to conflicts in other regions. Assuming that the international community may well face future operations characterized by regional, borderless “wars among the people”, the centres at Queen’s University and their partners propose convening a distinguished group of approximately 200 experts from academic, military, governmental, and international institutions to examine how best to prepare commanders, military units and governments to plan for and conduct complex, multi-dimensional stability campaigns in this new environment.
16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.
