COMPLEX OPERATIONS
LTC Nagl on War in the 21st Century - Mark Safranski, Chicago Boyz
LTC. John Nagl had an article, not yet available online, in the prestigious RUSI journal where he used his review of The Echo of Battle: The Army’s Way of War by Brian McAllister Linn to drive home a geopolitical and grand strategic reality that I offer here with my subsequent comments (major hat tip to Lexington Green for the PDF).
IRAQ
Senior Mahdi Army Commanders Captured - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
Iraqi Special Operations Forces captured a senior Mahdi Army commander with "close ties" to Muqtada al Sadr's office in Najaf on June 19. Two other senior Mahdi Army commanders in Baghdad and Hillah were captured on June 20 and 21. The Mahdi Army commander captured by Iraqi special forces is thought to be "an influential advisor in west Baghdad" with close ties to the Office of the [Martyr] Sadr in Najaf," Multinational Forces Iraq reported. The commander also is able to appoint Mahdi Army officers into command positions.
Big Gains in Iraq? - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama
Dr. iRack took note of two good pieces on security progress today, one in the WaPo and the other in the NYT. The Times article is an especially comprehensive and balanced overview. Riffing off that piece, we can pause and take stock of the emerging security and political landscape in Iraq,
Iraqi Sunnis after the Awakenings - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark
Mohammed Abu Rumman, a Jordanian journalist who follows the Iraqi Sunni scene very closely, has a fascinating article up at al-Hayat on recent developments there. It's a detailed, rich essay, which makes a few key points. First, Awakenings leaders seem to be uncertain about their future and about American intentions, with unpredictable ramifications - possibly moving them into the political process and integration into the state, possibly inflaming them against American 'betrayal'. Second, the emerging Sunni political scence is intensely fragmented, with a bewildering array of parties and movements competing rather than any coherent Sunni bloc. Is Iraq really entering a post-Awakenings period? What would that mean?
Maysan Operation Targets Sadrists - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal
The Iraqi security forces have detained five senior Sadrist leaders and a department director in Maysan province during Operation Promise of Peace. The Mahdi Army, the armed wing of the Sadrist movement, has not put up any opposition to the government’s efforts to secure Maysan, a Sadrist stronghold on the Iranian border. Iraqi forces are conducting a series of raids in Amarah and throughout the southern province, "capturing key targets including government officials wanted by the authorities in a number of cases," said Brigadier General Abdul Karim Khalaf, a spokesman for Iraq's Ministry of the Interior.
The Promise of Peace - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama
Approximately 1,200 Iraqi forces (with US troops and warplanes supporting them) have launched the government's fourth major operation in recent months (dubbed "Promise of Peace") in the southern border city of Amara (the capital of Maysan province). As a consequence of negotiations with local leaders prior to the offensive, reports suggest that Iraqi troops faced little resistance. (Members of the Sadr movement also traveled to Amara to monitor the sweep in an attempt to avoid a repeat of the escalation following the Basra operation).
Our Partners in the End - Tom Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett
Paul Brinkley, head of the Pentagon office who talked Enterra into entering Iraq, is quoted as saying "It's ironic" that the firms rushing into Iraq to take advantage are not American. Actually, it's not ironic whatsoever. Check out the countries described in the piece: Romania, Lebanon, China, Russia, Turkey, France, Germany. None sent troops, but all showed up for the peace. "Come as you are" meets "come when you want."
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS
War Cost and Benefit - David Wood, Military Watch
In a speedy but costly effort, NATO's military forces helped Afghans drive a few insurgents away from villages outside Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. A nice piece in our sister publication, the Los Angeles Times, raises the question of how many more such victories can the U.S. and its alllies afford? Just as cheaply made roadside bombs have forced the United States into a 10-year, $10 billion program to buy sturdier vehicles, so can a few insurgents -- perhaps magnifying their own numbers -- force NATO to buy and maintain fleets of helicopters so it can airlift Afghan troops to a crisis spot. Then the insurgents simply melt away. As former SecDef Donald Rumsfeld once famously complained, "The cost-benefit ratio is against us!
How Do You Solve A Problem Like the Pashtun? - Troy, Abu Muqawama
Against the backdrop of the joint Afghan & Canadian operations against Taliban fighters near Kandahar it seems appropriate to take a look at the current issue of International Security which has two articles on Afghanistan. Each takes a look at a different aspect of the roots of the security challenges there and provides some competing policy recommendations for the US and its allies.
US Marine Style Counterinsurgency - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal
We have covered the hard core, robust kinetic engagement of the US Marines in the Helmand Province in and around the city of Garmser, Afghanistan. The British drove them to the fight, everyone else watched and the Taliban died. But is this all there is to US Marine style counterinsurgency? Not even nearly. Michael M. Phillips of the Wall Street Journal has given us a thinking man’s discussion of counterinsurgency in After Battle in Afghanistan Villages, Marines Open Complaint Shop.
IRAN
Air Strike Rehearsal Not About Diplomacy - Westhawk, Westhawk
The Israelis would certainly prefer the Americans and the Europeans to successfully engineer a diplomatic (or even military) solution to the Iranian nuclear threat. But after observing the abject failure of the IAEA-UN diplomatic process over the past four years, no one, especially the Israelis, has any reason for optimism on this score. Contrary to the assessment of the anonymous Pentagon official, coldly analytical Israeli leaders have likely concluded that open knowledge of Israel’s preparations for an air strike on Iran are more likely to dampen, not energize, European and American efforts against Iran. When the American and European statesmen observe the Israelis preparing to strike Iran, they will feel relieved that the Israelis are doing their work for them. Just one more reason for the Americans and Europeans to walk away from a problem they are making no progress resolving.
Attack 'Rehearsal' in Israeli War Game - Noah Shachtman, Danger Room
More than 100 fighter jets. A fleet of rescue copters. Refueling tankers flying more than 900 miles, the distance from Israel to Iran’s atomic plant at Natanz. "Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities," the New York Times is reporting. And the giant spectacle was designed to send a message: "that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter."
MIDDLE EAST
Israel Alone - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club
Two articles, one by Allison Kaplan Sommer and Lisa Goldman at Pajamas Media and the other by Caroline Glick at the Jerusalem Post, underscore the exorbitant price that Olmert is now willing to pay for a handful of international legitimacy. It's a telling reminder of just how well the campaign to marginalize what a French ambassador called a "shitty little country" has fared. To gain but a little diplomatic leverage Israel must now mortgage its future. Caroline describes the unilateral concessions that Olmert has made to Hamas; concessions to deep that even the State Department and the UN are aghast.
Darkness at the End of the Tunnel - Gabriel Schoenfeld, Contentions
Israel has just carried out a major aerial exercise, putting a hundred or so F-15s and F-16s into the skies over the eastern Mediterranean, evidently a rehearsal for a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The move follows the statement earlier this month by Shaul Mofaz, Israel’s deputy prime minister, that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program is “unavoidable.”
The Gaza Cease-Fire Is Over (Or Should Be) - Noah Pollak, Contentions
Obviously, there is a serious disconnect here, and, I feel safe speculating, a tremendous amount of bad faith on the part of Hamas. Unless Gilad was lying - there is no reason to suspect he was - one of the central conditions of the cease-fire was Hamas’ voluntary cessation of weapons smuggling. Haniyeh now declares openly that Hamas intends not only to flout that condition, but that a stoppage in smuggling was never part of the deal in the first place.
AFRICA
Russian Mercenaries Over Africa - James Dunnigan, Strategy Page
The recent death of a Russian fighter pilot in Sudan, while flying a Sudanese MiG-29, brought to light the fact that Russian pilots, both active duty and retired, have been flying Sudan's 14 MiG-29s. This is because it has proven more difficult than expected to train Sudanese to do the job. One reason for this is that Sudan doesn't have many pilots to begin with, so the Sudanese MiG-29 pilots had to be recruited and trained from scratch. Since Sudan is a religious dictatorship, the leadership selected pilot trainees more for their loyalty than for their piloting potential. Many of these trainees proved inadequate as pilots, at least of high performance fighters like the MiG-29 (which is similar in size and capabilities to the U.S. F-16). Rather than have these expensive fighters sit around unused, the government hired more Russian "instructors" to not only devote more time to getting the Sudanese trainees in shape, but also to operate the MiG-29s.
Africa Security Roundup - Clay Varney, Threats Watch
A number of significant developments have taken place on the African continent of late that deserve attention due to their ramifications beyond the mere locale in which they were perpetrated. Instead of focusing on just one issue as usual with the RapidRecon format, I will address and offer analysis on two important events.
THE LONG WAR
AQ: Central Command or Leaderless Jihad? - Steve Schippert, Threats Watch
ThreatsWatch recently participated in a symposium on the significance of al-Qaeda Senior Leadership (AQSL) published today by FrontPage Magazine. It is a pretty good conversation on the subject with Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, Sayed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and me.
Samina Malik Walks - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar
Despite accusations that the UK is going to hell in a handcart following the release of “Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man in Europe”, Abu Qatada, and the delightful Jordanian’s subsequent renewal of the call to violent jihad, there are signs that the British judiciary at least retains a semblance of common sense. On Tuesday 17 June 2008, the UK Court of Appeal quashed the conviction of Samina Malik, the “lyrical terrorist”, for possession of information useful for terrorist purposes under Section 58 of the Terrorism Act 2000.
Al Haramain Financing Terrorists - Victor Comras, Counterterrorism
Following several years of wrangling with Saudi Arabia over Al Haramain Islamic Foundation’s continuing international role in facilitating terrorism financing, the US Treasury Department has finally acted unilaterally to designate its whole world-wide operation, including Al Haramain's headquarter offices, structure and operations in Saudi Arabia. Previous designation actions had been directed only against certain Al Haramain branches.
The Immunity Deal - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump
Republicans and Democrats in Congress reached a breakthrough compromise yesterday on a bill that would dramatically revamp the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). Most significantly, the draft legislation makes legal the president's probably previously illegal National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance program. If signed into law, the new bill would also immunize telecommunications companies from individual lawsuits over surveillance. (More than 40 such suits have been filed already.)
House Shows Signs of Intelligence - Passes FISA - Uncle Jimbo, Blackfive
In a shocking display of common sense the House passed an updated FISA bill that actually achieves most of what is needed. I don't know how this breach of House protocol occurred, but the bill has no egregious limits on what can be done and allows emergency surveillances if valuable intel would otherwise be lost. Holy Cow how did that tidbit of sanity survive.
US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Army Establishes Air Surveillance Unit - Merv Benson, PrairiePundit
The ground units’ voracious appetite for aerial surveillance appears to exceed the Air Force's ability to provide it. It clearly has made a difference in this war. Aerial surveillance has been a force multiplier that allows the ground units to accomplish what would normally take many more troops. Stories like this suggest that Air Force leaders were not all that keen on meeting this need if it required additional UAVs. I am not sure what the reluctance is. They should be eager to expand the portion of their fleet that is needed in counterinsurgency operations, since that is the kind of war we will more than likely be fighting in the coming years.
The Coming Paradigm Shift - Galrahn, Information Dissemination
Over the past year, this blog has evolved with a narrative for thinking about the Navy's new maritime strategy. We discuss maritime strategy using the analogy of a Yin Yang, representing warfighting and peacemaking as two opposing and, at the same time, complementary (completing) applications of military power. We believe military power must take a balanced approach addressing the requirements for winning war and managing peace. If the military is to balance itself, this means there must be a commitment to counterinsurgency capabilities for Army peacemaking operations, and in the case of the Navy it means building flexible forces for leveraging the sea as base to connect the non-integrated gaps. Using the Ying Yang analogy, if black is war and white is peace, this analogy is used to recognize the white dot as peacemaking forces as a requirement for winning war, just as the black dot represents warfighter capabilities as a requirement for managing peace.
Paradigm Shift in the DoD - Galrahn, Information Dissemination
On Wednesday we highlighted an article in the Washington Quarterly by Michael J. Mazarr, a professor of national security strategy at the U.S. National War College. Aptly named The Folly of 'Asymmetric War' we believe this article is very important to the national defense strategy discussion regarding the Paradigm Shift in the DoD towards asymmetrical warfare. The article represents a well articulated position for the resistance movement to that shift that is sure to be cited in future research.
Secret Pentagon Funding Near All-Time High - Sharon Weinberger, Danger Room
The latest Pentagon budget request contains a near record high level of money for classified, or "black" programs, reports the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Fiscal year 2009 includes a whopping $34 billion to fund classified weapons purchases and development, though it is not the highest level ever.
Keeping Up - Jack, DoD Live
We've covered a lot of topics recently and I want to point you to another resource we have available. The Flikr badge to the right has photos we've recently loaded on some of the topics we've covered. Another resource is the Digital Video Information Distribution Hub (DVIDSHub). Just trying to keep you connected.
COALITION / MULTINATIONAL
ABCA: The Alliance You Never Heard Of - David Betz, Kings of War
Over the last two weeks I haven’t just been on holiday. For the last three days I was participating in exercise Agile Alliance ‘08 of the ABCA–the alliance of 5 armies (no, not these 5 armies) that you very likely know nothing about but should. In fact, strictly speaking it’s not an alliance, like NATO, because its not based on a treaty but something called a Basic Standardization Agreement between the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and (more recently) New Zealand. There’s a good short history of the Alliance and a description of its current state in Joint Forces Quarterly ABCA: A Petri Dish for Multinational Capability.
PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANIES
Blackwater Hides Under Burqa - Sharon Weinberger, Danger Room
Everybody's favorite private security outfit has come up with a novel argument for how the U.S. courts should deal with a lawsuit over soldiers killed in the company's X-Wing fighter. Blackwater says the courts should use Shari'a law, because the crash occurred in Afghanistan... At issue is a 2004 crash of a plane operated by Presidential Airways, Blackwater's aviation arm. "You're an X-wing fighter Star Wars man," said the co-pilot, shortly before the plane smacked into the side of a canyon. Family members of the soldiers who died in the plane are suing the company.
US DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Suited for the New Diplomacy? - David Betz, Kings of War
Suited for the New Diplomacy? - Washington Post. I am back from my holidays and catching up on my reading. First, I must say thank you, thank you, thank you Ireland. But getting back on topic, the article linked above caught my eye. It seems to reflect a sentiment that work in the field such as on PRTs in Afghanistan, however exciting, just is not what the State Department is about.
UNITED NATIONS
Jihad Against Freedom of Speech - Jeffrey Imms, Counterterrorism
The United Nations' Human Rights Council (UNHRC) has no problem with its members suggesting that the 9/11 attacks were an "inside job" perpetrated by the United States on itself. The human rights of America's 9/11 victims are not a priority for UNHRC's Richard Falk, the special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories, who engages in 9/11 conspiracy propaganda, while working for an organization headquartered in New York City funded by US tax dollars. This is Richard Falk's protected freedom of speech. Denying the role of Jihadists in the 9/11 attacks is apparently perfectly acceptable freedom of speech for the UNHRC, but criticizing Sharia law is another story.
RECOMMENDED READING
UK CT & COIN Features - 20 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group
A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.
KeepNet 20 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar
More news and views from the blogosphere and beyond.
UK CT & COIN Features - 19 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group
A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.
