IRAQ

Crackdown in Amarah Continues - al-Alak and Zavis, Los Angeles Times

Iraqi security forces waging a crackdown on gangsters and militiamen in the southeastern city of Amarah arrested at least 45 more suspects Friday, drawing complaints of heavy-handedness from representatives of influential Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr. The operation, which has met little resistance since it began Thursday, is part of a drive to restore government authority in areas of the country that have fallen under the control of armed Sunni Arab and Shiite factions, including Sadr's followers.

Calm in Basra May Offer A Guide - Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post

The Iraqi army soldiers walked with confidence into this city's notorious Five Miles neighborhood. Shiite militiamen once greeted them with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. Now, smiling children waved, and a nearby market pulsed with energy. "Nobody before was able to get in here," said Col. Bilal al-Dayni, surveying the battle-scarred landscape. As the two countries pursue contentious negotiations over the future role of the US military in Iraq, the evolution of Basra suggests that Iraqi troops, when deployed in large numbers in areas without deep sectarian divisions, can provide security largely on their own. For Iraqi army commanders in this strategic southern Shiite city, where much of Iraq's oil flows to the rest of the world, the Basra offensive has reinvigorated their sense of pride.

Big Gains, but Questions Linger - Farrell and Oppel, New York Times

Violence in all of Iraq is the lowest since March 2004. The two largest cities, Baghdad and Basra, are calmer than they have been for years. The third largest, Mosul, is in the midst of a major security operation. On Thursday, Iraqi forces swept unopposed through the southern city of Amara, which has been controlled by Shiite militias. There is a sense that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government has more political traction than any of its predecessors. While the increase in American troops and their support behind the scenes in the recent operations has helped tamp down the violence, there are signs that both the Iraqi security forces and the Iraqi government are making strides. There are simply more Iraqi troops for the government to deploy, partly because fewer are needed to fight the Sunni insurgents, who have defected to the Sunni Awakening movement.

Iraq Report IX - Marisa Cochrane, Weekly Standard opinion

Over the last year, operations by Coalition and Iraqi forces have made signifi cant gains against al-Qaeda in Iraq and other Sunni insurgents. As the threat from these groups has decreased, Coalition Forces and the Iraqi government have focused their attention on the problem of Shi'a militias in central and southern Iraq. Nowhere was this threat more evident than in the southern city of Basra. In the wake of the premature British withdrawal from the city center and transition to an overwatch capacity in late 2007, Basra became a haven for militia and criminal activity. Rival Shi'a militias were engaged in a violent and protracted power struggle as drugs, weapons, and oil smuggling rings thrived. In late March 2008, the Iraqi government launched an offensive to reclaim the city from the militias. Iraq Report 9 offers a comprehensive look at the battle for Basra, Operation Knight's Charge.

Whose Side Are We on Again? - David Harsanyi, Real Clear Politics opinion

Now that foreign terrorist suspects have the right to habeas corpus, maybe US Marines will be extended the courtesy of a trial before being smeared as cold-blooded murders. A surprising number of Americans are eager to believe the worst about our fighting men and women. In the case of the infamous Haditha "massacre," their motives are transparently political, ugly and deceitful. The Haditha story -- reminiscent of some twisted Oliver Stone fantasy -- was first reported by Time magazine. According to reports, Marines were allegedly involved in a firefight on Nov. 19, 2005, murdering 24 civilians in retribution for a roadside bombing that killed a fellow Marine. For power-hungry Pennsylvania congressman John Murtha, the tide of negative public opinion on Iraq made Haditha the perfect self-serving political opportunity. After all, other than being the focus of corruption investigations, Murtha had never been bequeathed such extravagant attention. And when Murtha, a former Marine, spoke about Haditha, he spoke with certitude -- and the national headlines mirrored it.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

Afghans Count Taliban Dead - Toronto Star

NATO and Afghan forces held mopping up operations, hunting Taliban fighters and burying the dead today, after an air and ground offensive routed hundreds of insurgents from a valley near Kandahar city. The allies mounted the offensive on Wednesday after the Taliban took control of the Arghandab valley, 20 km northwest of Kandahar. Around 600 militants, including some who had escaped a week ago during a mass jail break from a prison in the city, had taken up positions in a cluster of villages, according to a provincial official and a Taliban spokesman.

When the Smoke Cleared - Graeme Smith, Globe and Mail

After days of responding to emergencies, first to a Taliban raid that freed hundreds of prisoners from a city jail on June 13, and then a short-lived sweep by armed insurgents into a dozen villages north of the city, top officials finally had a moment of relative quiet to reflect on what happened – and to argue over their wildly differing interpretations. All authorities agree that the Taliban have abandoned Arghandab district in the past two days. But there is major disagreement about the size of the Taliban force that infiltrated this strategic swath of farmland, why they invaded, and what, if anything, they achieved. Brigadier-General Denis Thompson, the senior Canadian commander in Kandahar, met Friday with French, U.S. and Canadian officers in charge of marshalling hundreds of Afghan forces into regular patrols of the district in coming days, as they search for roadside bombs and try to ensure the villages are safe enough for residents to go home.

Karzai's Comments Highlight Frustration - Gary Thomas, Voice of America

Afghanistan's president has threatened to send troops after Taliban militants who take sanctuary in neighboring Pakistan. Analysts say the threat is somewhat hollow. But it does increase the danger of a miscalculation along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Analysts discount that President Hamid Karzai would actually be able to follow through on his threat to dispatch troops into Pakistan in hot pursuit of Islamic militant fighters. They point out that the Afghan National Army is still relatively weak and that most military and security functions in Afghanistan are handled by NATO forces. Hilary Synnott, a former British ambassador to Pakistan, also says the NATO security forces policing Afghanistan would try to head off any such action.

No Winners in Aghanistan - Matthew Parris, Times of London opinion

It has been hard over the past fortnight to avert our eyes for long from Helmand, and from the task facing the British Forces in Afghanistan. As I write there have been nine deaths in the past nine days, and - although perhaps it shouldn't - the fact that one was a woman has only sharpened the media spotlight. Sadly, the battle for Helmand is a good story. The plot is simple, the human tragedies poignant, the pride in victories real, and the photography amazing. And yet an insistent voice within whispers that we needn't bother about Helmand. I mean this literally: not that Helmand doesn't matter but that we can be fairly confident of holding the line there. We can hold Helmand for as long as we try hard to. As an issue we can forget the ebb and flow of military fortune in southern Afghanistan because, though military fortune will always ebb and flow, there is no way our troops are going to sink.

IRAN

Iran Offered Conditional Nuclear Talks - Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times

A European proposal to ease the West's nuclear standoff with Iran includes an offer for talks with the Iranians as long as they do not expand their current ability to enrich uranium, Western diplomats say. Iran has not formally responded to the proposal made last week, nicknamed "freeze for freeze," which would create a six-week period during which the European Union, Russia, China and the United States would refrain from pushing for additional sanctions against Iran.

Bush May End Term With Iran Issue Unsettled - Helene Cooper, New York Times

For more than five years now, President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have made clear that they did not want to leave office with Iran any closer to possessing nuclear weapons than when they took office. “The nations of the world must not permit the Iranian regime to gain nuclear weapons,” Mr. Bush said in February 2006. The United States is prepared to use its naval power “to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region,” Mr. Cheney said in 2007 from a Navy carrier in the Persian Gulf. But with seven months left in this administration, Iran appears ascendant, its political and economic influence growing, its historic foes in Iraq and Afghanistan weakened, and its nuclear program continuing to move forward. So the question now is: Are Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney resigned to leaving Iran more powerful than they found it when they came to office?

Israel Flexes Muscles with 'Iran Attack' Drill - Sheera Frenkel, Times of London

Israeli aircraft have conducted a long-range mission designed to prepare for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and to send a message to the world that it is ready to take military action if diplomacy fails to halt Tehran’s atomic programme. An Israeli political official familiar with the drill, held early this month, said that the Iranians should “read the writing on the wall... This was a dress rehearsal, and the Iranians should read the script before they continue with their programme for nuclear weapons. If diplomacy does not yield results, Israel will take military steps to halt Tehran’s production of bomb-grade uranium.”

Israel Trains for Possible Iran Strike - Martin Chulov, The Australian

Israeli fighter jets have recently conducted a large-scale training operation that simulated an attack on an Iranian nuclear reactor, US media reports claim. The apparent operation follows months of escalating rhetoric from the Israeli defence establishment and politicians, who insist a military strike against the nascent nuclear capabilities of Iran is on strategists' drawing boards. Up to 100 advanced Israeli combat jets were reported to have taken part in the drill over Greece and other areas of the eastern Mediterranean. The exercise was tailored to prepare for long-range strikes and focused on air-to-air refuelling and target assessment.

War with Iran: Grim "What If?" - Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor

Pressure is building on Iran. This week Europe agreed to new sanctions and President Bush again suggested something more serious - possible military strikes - if the Islamic Republic doesn't bend to the will of the international community on its nuclear program. But increasingly military analysts are warning of severe consequences if the US begins a shooting war with Iran. While Iranian forces are no match for American technology on a conventional battlefield, Iran has shown that it can bite back in unconventional ways. Iranian networks in Iraq and Afghanistan could imperil US interests there; American forces throughout the Gulf region could be targeted by asymmetric methods and lethal rocket barrages; and Iranian partners across the region - such as Hezbollah in Lebanon - could be mobilized to engage in an anti-US fight.

Sunni Group Executes 2 Policemen - Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post

An armed Sunni group said Friday that it had executed two Iranian policemen, and it threatened to kill 14 others abducted a week ago in an area near the border with Pakistan. Iranian authorities did not immediately react to a videotape purporting to show the killings, part of which was aired Friday by the al-Arabiya satellite channel, based in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. Iran has accused the United States of assisting the group, known as Jundallah, or God's Brigade.

Worn-out US Seeks Bargain with Iran - Greg Sheridan, The Australian opinion

The attempted grand bargain between Washington and Tehran, and the collapse of the two-state solution, are profound developments that may take years to unfold, are bafflingly complex and that we will be trying to analyse for a long time to come. The signs of the grand bargain are everywhere. The idea that George W. Bush won't negotiate with Iran is nonsense. The US and Iran regularly meet at ambassadorial level in Iraq and other officials have also held meetings. Rice, in her recent important essay in Foreign Affairs, repeatedly offers full normalisation and a complete change in relations with Iran if it will just desist from illegal nuclear activity. Throughout the Middle East, the US is accommodating core Iranian demands. Iran's terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, has been given a virtual veto over Lebanese government policy. Iran's closest ally, Syria, has been invited to send its President, Bashar al-Assad, to a Mediterranean area summit in France, at which he will share a meeting room with Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Iran's other terror proxy, Hamas, is being relieved of military pressure through the ceasefire.

Threats to and from Iran - Boston Globe editorial

An exercise by Israel's air force over the Mediterranean earlier this month ought to set off alarm bells around the world, for the refueling operations and evasive maneuvers suggested a practice run for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Whether Israel simply hopes to avoid an attack by threatening one, or whether the Israelis were getting ready for an impending attack, the lesson should be the same: The Bush administration and other involved governments must do everything in their power to keep Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon - and keep Iran from bombed to prevent its becoming a nuclear power.

Darkness at the End of the Tunnel - Gabriel Schoenfeld, Weekly Standard opinion

Israel has just carried out a major aerial exercise, putting a hundred or so F-15s and F-16s into the skies over the eastern Mediterranean, evidently a rehearsal for a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. The move follows the statement earlier this month by Shaul Mofaz, Israel's deputy prime minister, that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program is "unavoidable." Israel almost certainly knows the location of some of the critical nodes in the Iranian program that it must hit if it is to set the Iranian effort back by several years. It also possesses the technology to assure that its bombs will fall close to or on their targets. But would such a strike succeed? We cannot know the answer, and neither can the Israelis. The question calls attention to what might be called the ongoing Counterrevolution in Military Affairs. The Revolution in Military Affairs was based upon silicon, in particular the computer chips that make for precision-guided weapons. In the 1980s, the United States developed the technology to drop munitions near enough to their targets to ensure a high chance of destruction. In World War II, the circular error probable--the radius of a circle into which a projectile will land at least 50 percent of the time--was more than half a mile. Today, thanks to GPS systems and laser- and infrared-guiding devices, the radius is less than two dozen feet. Almost any given target can be knocked out by the use of just one or two conventional bombs.

THE LONG WAR

White House Dismissed Legal Advice - Michael Abramowitz, Washington Post

Senior lawyers inside and outside the Bush administration repeatedly warned the White House that it was risking judicial scrutiny of its detention policies in Guantanamo Bay if it did not pursue a more pragmatic legal strategy that considered the likely reaction of the Supreme Court. But such advice, issued periodically over the past six years, was ignored or discounted, according to current and former administration officials familiar with the debates. In August 2006, for example, the top lawyer at the State Department told senior officials at the White House that unless they won a congressional mandate that broadly supported their system of detaining terrorism suspects, their goal of keeping the detainees locked up was in jeopardy.

Abu Hamza Loses Court Battle - Adam Fresco, Times of London

Abu Hamza al-Masri, the radical Muslim cleric, has lost his High Court fight against extradition to the US, where he faces terror-related charges. Two judges ruled yesterday that the decision to extradite was “unassailable”. Egyptian-born Abu Hamza, 51, from West London, who has hooks on both partially amputated arms, is serving a seven-year jail term for stirring up racial hatred and inciting followers to murder nonbelievers. The US authorities want him to stand trial for allegedly attempting to set up an al-Qaeda training camp in Bly, Oregon.

Abu Hamza Faces 100 Years in US Jail - Nick Allen, Daily Telegraph of London

Radical Muslim cleric Abu Hamza lost his High Court battle today against extradition to the United States where he faces a potential jail sentence of 100 years. The decision means the hook-handed fanatic can be sent across the Atlantic to face terror charges and is likely to spend the rest of his natural life locked up for 23 hours a day in a "super-maximum" security jail in Colorado. Two High Court judges sitting in London ruled that the decision to extradite Hamza was "unassailable" but they also gave his lawyers 14 days to apply for leave to make a last ditch appeal to the House of Lords, the highest court in the land. Ultimately, he could delay the move further by taking his case to the European Court of Human Rights.

On Terrorism, Obama Is Living History - National Review editorial

Barack Obama is the herald of the September 10 Democrats. On Monday, Obama off-handedly reiterated his fondness for 1990s-style treatment of Islamic terrorists as if they were mere criminals to be managed by prosecution in the civilian criminal-justice system. By now, that should come as no surprise. Pressed on the subject again Wednesday, Obama insisted, “I have confidence that our system of justice is strong enough to deal with terrorists.” Top Obama backer Bill Richardson, a member of the Clinton Cabinet that delegated national defense to our system of justice while radical Islam killed Americans in New York City, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Yemen, told CNN on Wednesday that he “totally” rejected the Bush administration policy of branding jihadists as enemy combatants because doing so is somehow tantamount to “abridging our own freedoms.”

We'll Rue Judges on the Battlefield - Andrew McBride, Wall Street Journal opinion

The Supreme Court's decision in Boumediene v. Bush is being hailed in many quarters as a great victory for civil rights and the rule of law. It is not. In fact, it is a watershed in judicial hubris, and in the continuing trend in our society to convert every form of decision making into a lawsuit. For the first time in our history, the Supreme Court has rejected the considered judgment of both the Congress and the president on an issue of national security. The writ of habeas corpus, a bulwark of domestic liberty, has been extended to foreign nationals whose only connection to the U.S. is their capture by our military. Justice Kennedy's majority opinion confuses the civilian criminal justice system and the waging of war.

Terrorized by the Supreme Court - Steve Chapman, Washington Times opinion

Many people who strongly believe in the war on terror are not above sowing a little terror of their own. From the reaction to last week's Supreme Court decision on Guantanamo, you would think the detainees were all going to be trained, armed and set free at Ground Zero, with free shuttle service to the nearest airport. John McCain denounced the ruling, which said inmates may ask for federal court review under a procedure known as habeas corpus, as "one of the worst decisions in the history of this country." Former Bush Justice Department official John Yoo warned that henceforth, captured enemy fighters will be read their Miranda rights. The irrepressible Wall Street Journal had a cartoon with a judge atop a cage labeled "Gitmo" watching masked inmates stream out wearing suicide vests and lugging AK-47s. All this outrage builds on the dissent registered by Justice Antonin Scalia. The court's decision "will make the war harder on us," he thundered. "It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed."

Good Deal On Surveillance Reform - Andrew McCarthy, National Review opinion

Politics, it is often said, is the art of the possible. By that measure, national security has been served by the compromise finally struck Thursday to overhaul our outdated surveillance laws. The measure should be approved by both houses of Congress in the coming days. President Bush will sign it. Here is the bottom line: Our intelligence agencies will once again have authority to conduct aggressive monitoring of foreign powers, including terrorist organizations, which threaten the United States. In particular, this will be the case overseas - that is, when foreigners located outside our borders communicate with each other. The Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency will essentially be able to collect foreign intelligence without interference from the courts, the status quo ante that was US law for decades before being upset by a secret court ruling last year.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Ex-official Cites Differences with Gates - Robert Burns, Associated Press

Two weeks after being ousted, Air Force Secretary Michael W. Wynne said Friday he had a "difference in philosophy" with his boss, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, on numerous issues - not just on the nuclear slip-up that Mr. Gates said was his reason for removing Mr. Wynne. On his final day in office, a relaxed-looking Mr. Wynne told a group of reporters that he is not angry about being forced out as the top civilian official of the Air Force. He defended his record, saying he had "pushed the system pretty hard" to ensure that the Air Force is at the leading edge of war fighting. He indicated no animosity toward Mr. Gates, with whom he said he was "not aligned" on some key issues.

Air Force Adrift - Washington Post editorial

Slowly and painfully, the US Army has adapted itself to the unconventional wars the country has faced since Sept. 11, 2001. Following a reorganization of forces, a rewrite of doctrine and the emergence of new commanders such as Gen. David H. Petraeus, American ground troops are winning counterinsurgency wars in Iraq and eastern Afghanistan -- and are recognized as state-of-the-art by NATO allies. In contrast, the US Air Force, which dominated the 1990s with its smart bombs and stealth planes, has lost its way in the new century. Its top leaders have remained stubbornly focused on the production of advanced tactical aircraft such as the F-22 Raptor, which has not flown a single mission in Iraq, while failing to provide adequate numbers of the unmanned aircraft that are crucial to American success in the new wars. Air Force commanders allowed two inexcusable breaches of nuclear security, in which warheads were flown across the country by mistake and bomb fuses were mistakenly shipped to Taiwan. Now the Government Accountability Office has found that the Air Force bungled one of its largest and most important procurement contracts, for the second time.

Military-Industrial Complications - Wall Street Journal editorial

Here we go again. American soldiers will have to wait even longer for new aerial refueling tankers after government auditors said Wednesday that the Air Force had broken its own rules in awarding the $35 billion contract to Northrop Grumman and EADS over Boeing. The Government Accountability Office, Congress's investigative arm, agreed with Boeing that Air Force officials unduly gave extra credit to Northrop and EADS, or the European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co., for surpassing specification requirements for the tankers. The GAO also found that the Air Force miscalculated the costs of both the winning bid and Boeing's offering. The Air Force is now expected to request revised proposals from the two bidders and make a new selection. The auditors didn't presume to decide which tanker was actually better, and neither will we. But what is clear is that this setback is a blow to U.S. troops, who are stuck fighting two hot wars with Eisenhower-era tankers while the companies continue their seven-year-old dogfight.

Military Inventions HIt Civilian Market - Tom Peter, Christian Science Monitor

Although Hugh Herr was a respected professor at Harvard Medical School, he says finding someone to bankroll a new prosthetic knee project was tough before the Iraq war. He could get funding from the prosthetic industry, but government sources showed little interest. But a year and a half after the invasion of Iraq, the tides turned. The United States Department of Veterans Affairs provided the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and several other institutions with $7.2 million to study artificial arms and legs for amputees. The money, along with key technological innovations, has helped Dr. Herr, now an associate professor at the MIT Media Lab, create a powered ankle and knee, the next generation of prosthetics.

In With the Old - Joe Klein, TIme

When I asked him specifically if he would want to retain Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense, Obama said, "I'm not going to let you pin me down ... but I'd certainly be interested in the sort of people who served in the first Bush Administration." Gates was George H.W. Bush's CIA director - and he has been a superb Secretary of Defense, as good in that post as his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld, was awful. No doubt, partisan Democrats who equate bipartisan government with namby-pamby policymaking are horrified by the thought that Republicans might keep control of the Pentagon. But Gates has been neither ideological nor namby-pamby. He has demanded accountability. He fired the Secretary of the Army after the Walter Reed hospital scandal and the Secretary of the Air Force for lax stewardship of the nuclear arsenal. Early on, Gates encouraged the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq; he has been one of the few Bush officials open to negotiations with Iran. He has called for a larger budget for diplomacy - "which makes him far more popular than SecDefs usually are around here," a State Department official told me. He has clearly sided with the Army reformers against the Old Guard, and even called David Petraeus back to Washington to preside over a promotion board when it became clear that Petraeus-style officers - the bold and creative proponents of counterinsurgency strategy - were being blocked. (Petraeus apparently succeeded in getting several of his protégés promoted to general.)

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

Hayden Applauded for Military Service - Bill Gertz, Washington Times

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Friday that ties between military and intelligence operations today are the closest in the history of modern warfare, and he praised CIA Director Michael V. Hayden during his military retirement ceremony for boosting joint efforts. "We are all on one team these days, and Mike has played a key role in this effort," Mr. Gates said during a speech at Bolling Air Force Base. Mr. Gates, a former CIA director, said close cooperation between the military and the CIA's clandestine intelligence agents is essential to countering the twin threats of global terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANIES

Authors Who Let Slip the Dogs of War - Ben Macintyre, Times of London

Discussing the plot by British-led mercenaries to overthrow him, President Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea made an important cultural point: “Simon Mann was used as an instrument but there were material and intellectual authors behind it.” Those authors can now be named. They are Graham Greene, George MacDonald Fraser, Daniel Carney (author of The Wild Geese) and, above all, the undisputed doyen of mercenary fiction, Frederick Forsyth. Spies read John le Carré, lawyers read Rumpole, private detectives read Sherlock Holmes and policemen read Ian Rankin and Colin Dexter; but no profession is so entirely entranced by and indebted to its own fiction as that of the mercenary. Mercenaries believe their own mythology, and so do we.

AFRICA

Zimbabweans Set to Vote With Their Feet - Clayton and Raath, Times of London

Zimbabwe’s neighbours are bracing themselves for an influx of millions of refugees after the run-off presidential poll next week, which President Mugabe is determined to win even at the cost of regional isolation. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has put contingency plans in place in the expectation that hordes of Zimbabweans will cross the borders to Mozambique, Botswana, Zambia and South Africa, where an estimated three million of their countrymen are already taking refuge.

Opposition Strategist Denied Bail in Zimbabwe - Barry Bearak, New York Times

With Zimbabwe’s presidential runoff just a week away, a magistrate in Harare refused Friday to grant bail to Tendai Biti, the opposition’s secretary general and chief strategist, who has been charged with treason. Though the opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, said it would appeal, Mr. Biti has been ordered to remain in jail until his next scheduled court date on July 7 - more than a week after the election. The magistrate’s decision was yet another setback for the opposition, whose candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, finished ahead of President Robert Mugabe in a first round of balloting in March, but not by a majority of votes.

Mugabe Says 'Only God' Can Remove Him - Daily Telegraph of London

Robert Mugabe vowed to remain president of Zimbabwe whatever the outcome of next week's election, saying "only God" could remove him from office. Mr Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since 1980, said the opposition Movement for Democratic Change would not be allowed to assume power if it won the presidential run-off poll on June 27. "The MDC will never be allowed to rule this country - never ever," Mr Mugabe, 84, told a meeting of business people in Bulawayo. "Only God who appointed me will remove me, not the MDC, not the British."

Opposition Asks Voters to End Mugabe Rule - Angus Shaw, Associated Press

Zimbabwe's opposition leader called on his supporters Friday to challenge President Robert Mugabe's rule in next week's runoff election despite a "wave of brutality" he says the government has unleashed. Even as Morgan Tsvangirai urged Zimbabweans to have the courage to vote in the face of a violent crackdown, a judge ordered the No. 2 opposition leader held on treason and other charges until after the election.

Zimbabwe: Long Walk to Freedom II - Times of London editorial

Mr Mandela is coming to London not only to celebrate a long life but also to raise awareness of Aids in Africa and funds to fight the epidemic. Aids is an issue on which he took an early and outspoken lead in speaking out. On another issue, however, he has been woefully silent. Since his retirement, and indeed even before that, he has said little about the tragedy unfolding in Zimbabwe. There may be something of the old freedom fighter's anti-colonial instincts at work here; but Mr Mandela is in a unique position to fight once again for the cause - freedom and justice in Africa - that earned him the admiration of the world. Mr Mugable and his henchmen could not ignore a rebuke from Mr Mandela, a man who endured more than they did in the name of black empowerment. He could also inspire the people of Zimbabwe with real courage and hope. And in the process, he would help to restore the authority of South Africa, a nation that for so long clamoured for support in its time of need and which has in recent months offered limp diplomacy as its neighbour endured starvation, intimidation and murder.

Getting Past Mugabe - Bellamy and Morrison, Washington Post opinion

The crisis in Zimbabwe is now at a critical stage. Government-instigated brutality is out of control. Regional and worldwide alarm over the brazen and increasingly unpredictable rule of Robert Mugabe is at an all-time high. By any reckoning, free and fair presidential elections in Zimbabwe next week are impossible. Mugabe and his security chiefs have warned they will accept no outcome other than his "re-election." Adding a few more election observers or achieving a pause in pre-election violence will change little. Faced with Mugabe's ruthlessness, Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai may well decide in coming days to pull out of the race altogether.

ASIA PACIFIC

New Data On N. Korea's Nuclear Capacity - Glenn Kessler, Washington Post

The United States in recent weeks has obtained new intelligence - fresh traces of highly enriched uranium discovered among 18,000 pages of North Korean documents - that are raising new questions about whether Pyongyang pursued an alternative route to producing a nuclear weapon, according to sources familiar with the intelligence findings. Officials at the State Department and with the director of national intelligence declined to comment on the new information, but sources said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made an oblique reference to it in a speech on North Korea policy to the Heritage Foundation on Wednesday.

S. Korea's President Fires Top Advisers - Kim and Harden, Washington Post

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak fired his top advisers on Friday in a staff overhaul meant to defuse public anger sparked by his decision to allow the importation of US beef. As Korean and US negotiators neared agreement on a compromise to the beef importation rules, Lee announced that he would replace his chief of staff and seven advisers, including his top aides for foreign affairs and economic issues. According to Korean media reports, he also plans to replace as many as three cabinet ministers next week, including the minister of food, agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

Frustrated Burmese Organize Aid Forays - Washington Post

Seven weeks after huge swaths of Burma were savaged by a cyclone and tidal wave, a new and remarkable citizen movement is delivering emergency supplies to survivors neglected by the military government's haphazard relief effort. The scores of ad hoc Burmese groups, many of them based here in the country's largest city, are not overtly political. But they are reviving a kind of social activism that has been largely repressed by successive military rulers here.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel's Peace Efforts Widen - Ashraf Khalil, Los Angeles Times

The tentative truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is just part of a larger effort by the Jewish state to reach out to longtime adversaries. In the process, it confronts a number of difficult, domestically unpopular negotiating options. One key issue faced by Israeli diplomats is both straightforward and highly sensitive. Syria wants the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, returned in exchange for peace. Analysts believe that giving up the Golan Heights, regarded by Israelis as a beloved vacation spot and a crucial strategic asset, could fundamentally alter the regional equation. The change, they say, could result in less Iranian influence over Syria; less animosity between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which receives support from Syria and Iran; and a stronger peace agreement with Hamas, whose senior leadership mostly lives in Damascus, the Syrian capital.

Cease-fire: Hamas Greater Clout? - Joshua Mitnick, Christian Science Monitor

In its official statements, Israel took pains to argue that the truce was not the product of negotiations with Hamas, but rather of an Egyptian compromise proposal. "The Israeli position regarding Hamas as a terror organization has not changed one iota," read a Foreign Ministry announcement. But beyond its new-found credibility as an partner (even if indirect) for talks, Hamas is now in a position to demonstrate to Israel, the Arab world, and the international community that it has the ability and will to enforce a truce in Gaza over objections of the myriad of militant groups there. It's a sign of sovereignty that would strike a contrast with the inability of President Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority to control armed groups. If the truce holds, Israel will on Sunday boost supplies of food and medicines into Gaza.

Israeli-Gaza Ceasefire Offers Time to Relax - Martin Chulov, The Australian

In the shadow of battle tanks, just a rifle shot from the Gaza border, a weary Israeli armour unit yesterday swapped combat gear for a football and, for the first time in many months, began to relax. The day before they had been mortared, while colleagues at the Kissufim army base nearby dodged Qassam rockets and sniper fire. But yesterday, few were looking towards the skies. While none of the soldiers expected the truce with Hamas to last, all were certain that it would bring them short-term peace. "Where it goes from there, none of us know," said the commander of the three-tank unit, known as The Wolves. "I was supposed to be out of the army today, but with all that has happened in Gaza recently, I have had to stay on."

The New Israel and the Old - Walter Russell Mead, Real Clear Politics opinion

On May 12, 1948, Clark Clifford, the White House chief counsel, presented the case for U.S. recognition of the state of Israel to the divided cabinet of President Harry Truman. While a glowering George Marshall, the secretary of state, and a skeptical Robert Lovett, Marshall's undersecretary, looked on, Clifford argued that recognizing the Jewish state would be an act of humanity that comported with traditional American values. To substantiate the Jewish territorial claim, Clifford quoted the Book of Deuteronomy: "Behold, I have set the land before you: go in and possess the land which the Lord sware unto your fathers, Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, to give unto them and to their seed after them." Marshall was not convinced and told Truman that he would vote against him in the upcoming election if this was his policy. Eventually, Marshall agreed not to make his opposition public. Two days later, the United States granted the new Jewish state de facto recognition 11 minutes after Israel declared its existence as a state. Many observers, both foreign and domestic, attributed Truman's decision to the power of the Jewish community in the United States. They saw Jewish votes, media influence, and campaign contributions as crucial in the tight 1948 presidential contest.

Yemen: Balancing Act Gets Harder - Robert Worth, New York Times

President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s face is everywhere in Yemen. He stares out from billboards, shop windows and living room walls, always with the same proud expression: eyes glinting, chest thrust out as if to confront a challenger. After 30 years in power, Mr. Saleh has become almost synonymous with the state in this arid, desperately poor corner of southern Arabia. But lately the president, 66, known for his wicked sense of humor, has been uncharacteristically dour. A war with northern Shiite rebels has spread to the outskirts of the capital. Terrorist attacks have led embassies and foreign companies to evacuate their employees. With an insurrection rising in the south as well, the turmoil has renewed fears that this conservative Muslim country of 23 million, a longtime haven for jihadists, could collapse into another Afghanistan.

Talk Like an Egyptian - Wall Street Journal editorial

Like the Saudi royals, the House of Mubarak tries to keep both its Islamists and the West happy. It's not easy to have it both ways. Just ask Farouk Hosni. Egypt's culture minister finds himself in a revealingly knotty predicament. In early May, responding to a question in Parliament from a member of the Muslim Brotherhood about cultural ties with Israel, he said: "I'd burn Israeli books myself if I found any in libraries in Egypt." The opposition MP, Mohsen Radi, was satisfied with the minister's response. The statement was unremarkable in a country where media and politics are full of anti-Israel venom. But Mr. Hosni also happens to be a leading candidate for the top job at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, or UNESCO

SOUTH ASIA

Nepal: World's Newest Republic - Thomas Bell, Daily Telegraph of London

The next government will be led by the Maoists, who have already abolished the monarchy. The king - seen as a living god, and worshipped as an incarnation of Lord Vishnu - became just another commoner. And yet, in the manner of his departure, Gyanendra won sympathy from some unexpected quarters. On the day he left the palace a well-known commentator, not noted for his royalist sympathies, sent me an email. "It was a day full of thrill and tears," he wrote. "Some people are really sad today. His exit was a tragic day for an institution." "Leaving the palace was the best thing he has done in two years," says Sirish Shumsher Rana, the king's former information minister. "What the king did [when he seized power] was necessary, but he failed." Monarchists still cling to the hope that if Gyanendra's reputation is repaired, and if the next government fails as most Nepali governments do, some kind of royal revival might one day be possible. After all, abolishing an institution with such deep roots - Nepal was forged in war by the king's ancestors 239 years ago - is no small matter.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

24-25 June - 16th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Wargame (Public Event - Wargame). Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). The purpose of the war game series is to provide education and familiarization to members of the Association concerning current issues, capabilities, and expeditionary force trends in the United States Marine Corpsand to identify areas where NDIA can provide assistance. The Purpose of the 2008 NDIA Expeditionary Warfare Division/USMC War Game is to examine C2 Integration issues concerning Sensor Fusion, Information Management, and Fusion and the Commander's Visualization Requirements and Realities using seabased Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief operations at the MEB level for a background.

11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.

11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.